Naceur Khraief

This paper provides the first evidence for empirical tests of the effect of rational expectations as well as behavioral biases, including among other animal spirits such as defined by Akerlof and Shiller (2009) on the variability of trading.We have used daily data for five international capital markets in developed countries. We find that the hypothesis of rationality losses of significance and cannot explain the evolution of trading. The economy is, however, driven by behavioral biases, including more especially animal spirits.

In this study, we examine the stationarity of CO2 emissions per capita for 98 low-, middle- and high-income countries from 1975 to 2014. To this end, we conduct the nonlinear unit root test developed by Kruse (2011) given that nearly half of the series exhibit nonlinear behaviour over the time period. This empirical evidence provides support for the non-stationarity hypothesis that 50% of CO2 emissions are from middle-income countries. For the robustness check, we use the panel unit root tests described by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005) and Bai and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009), which allow for structural breaks and cross-section dependence. The results provide evidence of stationarity for all three income groups.

This paper examines empirically whether oil price shocks impact stock market returns. Using monthly data for eight developed countries from January 1991 to September 2013, strong negative connections between oil price and stock market returns are found in seven of the selected countries. Oil price changes are without significant effect on the stock market of Singapore. On the volatility of returns, the changes in oil prices are significant for six markets and they have not much effect on the others.

All preceding studies that investigate the consequences of "defense news" shocks (like war or terrorism) on military spending assumed a permanent deviation from its growth path. Using 25 years of military spending annual data for more than hundred high, middle and low countries (based on the definitions of income levels suggested by the World Bank), this paper provide new evidence on the effect of exogenous shocks on military spending. By employing more powerful panel unit root tests that accounts for both cross-sectional dependence across countries and structural breaks, we find robust evidence supporting the stationarity of military spending for all the panels (full, high, middle and low income countries) highlighting that any exogenous shock to military spending has a temporary effect, meaning that military spending will return to its time trend. The stationary characteristic of military spending is fundamental for forecasting defence budget in response to exogenous sho...

Ce travail est consacre a une question qui fait debat depuis quelque temps : c'est celle du lien entre les suicides de fermiers et les performances de la technologie du coton Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) en Inde. Nous proposons un cadre de modelisation dynamique qui prend en compte le risque de la resistance des insectes aux plantes OGM. Face au probleme de resistance des ravageurs cibles aux toxines de Bt, l'agriculteur indien revient a l'application massive de produits phytosanitaires. Le recours a l'utilisation intensive de pesticides a fait augmenter les couts de production qui, combines avec le prix exorbitant de nouvelles semences, a entraine des situations de surendettement et le suicide de milliers d'agriculteurs de coton indiens. Nous montrons que le suicide des agriculteurs depend essentiellement d'un niveau critique de risque qui depend a son tour d'un seuil de nuisibilite economique. Si le niveau de la population d'insectes pousse au-dela d...

All preceding studies that investigates the consequences of "defense news" shocks (like war on terrorism) on military spending assumed a permanent deviation from its growth path. This paper reverses this finding by employing more powerful panel unit root tests that accounts for both cross-sectional dependence across countries and structural breaks on military spending series of more than 100 countries over 1988 - 2012; based on the definitions of income levels suggested by the World Bank – high, middle and low. We find robust evidence supporting the stationarity of military spending for all the panels (full, high, middle and low income countries) which reverses the results of past works that failed to reject non-stationarity in the data. These findings reveal that any exogenous shock to military spending has a temporary effect for high, middle and low income countries, meaning that military spending will return to its time trend. The stationary characteristic of military...

We establish the relation between optimal subsidy rates and spillovers from the sequential adoption of a new technology, we find that they evolve in the same direction over time. We show that spillovers, hence the subsidy rates, need not be monotonic. We show that when subsidy rates are increasing, their growth rate has to be paced by the growth rate of the present cost of the adoption of the new technology. We also show that increasing subsidies rates cannot produce the desired effect of accelerating adoption if the social cost of public funds is relatively high; hence first-best subsidy adoptions are not always viable.

Ces dernieres annees, le suicide des fermiers est devenu un probleme majeur de sante publique en Inde et denote indeniablement un mal-etre social pouvant aisement s'assimiler a une tragedie nationale. Il semble que cette « epidemie suicidaire » soit correlee a l'introduction des semences cotonnieres transgeniques (coton Bt). L'effet de cette culture reste encore controverse. Cet article cherche a etudier l'impact socioeconomique de l'adoption du coton Bt sur les fermiers indiens. Selon une etude realisee par Qayum et Sakkhari en Andhra Pradesh pendant trois ans (2002-2005), le coton Bt est un echec en termes de rendement, n'a pas diminue l'utilisation de pesticides et n'a pas ameliore ni les revenus de paysans ni l'environnement. Ces resultats negatifs ont aggrave donc le probleme de l'endettement des paysans indiens. Cette situation tragique ne laisse a de nombreux paysans endettes d'autre choix que d'opter pour le suicide.

Le present papier explique la decision de suicide, associee a l'agriculteur de coton Bt en Inde, dans le cadre d'un modele de maximisation d'une fonction d'utilite intertemporelle et conformement aux ecrits sur l'economie du suicide. Dans cet article, on affirme que l'incertitude entourant l'efficacite du coton Bt contre les ravageurs etait le principal facteur de suicides d'agriculteurs en Inde. L'objectif principal de cet article est de construire un modele economique de suicide pour examiner les impacts de l'incertitude, associe a la rentabilite du coton Bt, sur le comportement suicidaire des paysans indiens. A cet effet, on a propose l'extension du modele de Hamermesh et Soss tout en adoptant l'hypothese de l'incertitude sur le gain net futur du coton Bt suppose suivre un processus stochastique. A partir de notre modele, le profit du seuil, au-dessous duquel un agriculteur se suicide, est determine en fonction des parametres du...

This paper reviews the Tunisian legislation on the management of solid waste and assesses the effectiveness of economic instruments in controlling its generation. We set up a conceptual model to establish the short-run equivalence between economic instruments to regulate the generation of industrial solid waste. A simplified model is then calibrated to the Tunisian context to illustrate the gains in welfare, increase in recycling, and decrease in landfills use if Pigouvian taxes are used to internalize the externalities associated with landfills.

The paper investigates the nonlinear pass-through from economic growth to renewable energy consumptionby applying a Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model (NARDL) for G7 countries. This study covers the period of 1995Q1-2015Q4. The recent approach allows for empirical tests of short-run and long-run asymmetric responses of renewable energy consumption to positive and negative shocks stemming from economic growth. The results reveal that renewable energy consumption responds asymmetrically to economic growth in the long-run for France, Japan, Italy and the UK. However, we find no evidence for a long-run equilibrium between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Germany, Canada and the US.

The relationship between money growth and inflation is a topic of debate among macroeconomists. This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the money‐inflation pass‐through using a Nonlinear Auto‐Regressive Distributed Lag model (NARDL) for three countries (the U.S., U.K. and Japan) over an estimation period spanning 1950Q1 to 2014Q4. This methodology allows for empirical tests of short‐ and long‐run asymmetric responses of inflation to both positive and negative shocks affecting money growth of three monetary aggregates (M, M, M). The results reveal that inflation responds asymmetrically to monetary shocks in the long‐run for all three countries. Robustness tests are also undertaken by carrying out the Hatemi‐J (Empirical Economics, Vol. 43 (2012), pp. 447–456) causality test and splitting the sample period into two, before and after the financial crisis. The findings indicate the existence of a relation between money growth and inflation in the post‐crisis period only in the case of the U.K. When we use different break points, we find that the symmetric relationship more likely occurs in the post‐crisis period.

Purpose: This paper explores the relationship between globalization and economic growth by incorporating financial development, capital use and labor in production function. The study period is 1972-2013 in case of Pakistan. Methodology: We use instability tests newly suggested by Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) as well as the cointegration tests proposed in Arai and Kurozumi (2007) and extended by Kejriwal (2008). Findings: We find that cointegration is present among the series and there is some evidence of instability in cointegrating relationships. Financial development increases economic growth. Capital use adds in economic growth. Labor stimulates economic growth. Globalization (economic, social and political) spurs economic growth. The causality test indicates that globalization Granger causes economic growth. Furthermore, the results of KejriwalPerron tests suggest two breaks at 1976 and 2006 and three regimes. Recommendations: Policy recommendations have been provided.

Purpose: This paper provides the first evidence for empirical tests of the effect of rational expectations as well as behavioral biases, including among other animal spirits such as defined by Akerlof and Shiller (2009) on the variability of trading. Methodology: We have used daily data for five international capital markets in developed countries. Findings: We find that the hypothesis of rationality losses of significance and cannot explain the evolution of trading. Recommendations: The economy is, however, driven by behavioral biases, including more especially animal spirits.