Ioffe Physical Technical Institute
Ladoratory of cosmic rays
ABSTRACT. Statistical analysis of a multi-centennial dendrochronological proxy dataset of regional climate, constructed across the latitudinal gradient of 1000 km, was performed. It was shown that centennial (c. 100 year), tri-decadal... more
ABSTRACT. Statistical analysis of a multi-centennial dendrochronological proxy dataset of regional climate, constructed across the latitudinal gradient of 1000 km, was performed. It was shown that centennial (c. 100 year), tri-decadal (27-32 year), bi-decadal (17-23 year) ...
- by Högne Jungner and +2
- •
- Climate variability, Oscillations
ABSTRACT Eight, millennial-scale proxy reconstructions of temperature of the Northern Hemisphere were compared to instrumentally measured temperatures. The effect of anomalous reduction in sensitivity over the last decades (divergence) in... more
ABSTRACT Eight, millennial-scale proxy reconstructions of temperature of the Northern Hemisphere were compared to instrumentally measured temperatures. The effect of anomalous reduction in sensitivity over the last decades (divergence) in the tree-ring ...
- by Högne Jungner and +1
- •
ABSTRACT Six millennial proxy records of temperature in the northern hemisphere were analysed using both the Fourier and wavelet approaches. We found that the analysed temperature proxies have appreciable synchrony at multidecadal and... more
ABSTRACT Six millennial proxy records of temperature in the northern hemisphere were analysed using both the Fourier and wavelet approaches. We found that the analysed temperature proxies have appreciable synchrony at multidecadal and centennial time scales. These data also show evidence for the presence of a roughly regular large-scale rhythm with a periodicity of 50–130 years in the climate of the northern hemisphere over the last millennium. It is shown that the amplitude of this variation might reach 0.20–0.28°C and contribute appreciably to the rise of global temperature over the first part of the 20th century. Possible origins of the global centennial climatic cycles are discussed.
Two sets of nitrate (NO3-) concentration data in Central Greenland ice, obtained through the GISP2 collaboration and by the University of Kansas, were analyzed statistically. The two records correlate well over time scales from a few... more
Two sets of nitrate (NO3-) concentration data in Central Greenland ice, obtained through the GISP2 collaboration and by the University of Kansas, were analyzed statistically. The two records correlate well over time scales from a few years up to a century. They both contain quasi five-year, decadal and century-type time variations. A quasi five-year periodicity resulting from increases in the mean nitrate concentration before and after maximum sunspot number was confirmed. A tendency of solar proton events to occur more frequently during the rise/decline phases of the solar cycle may cause a quasi five-year variation. Century-type (60–110 yr) variability in nitrate outstrips the corresponding Gleissberg cycle in sunspots by 12–17 years and changes synchronously (correlates with zero phase shift) with the smoothed length of the solar Schwabe cycle. A significant correlation between century-type periodicities for nitrates in Greenland ice and northern Fennoscandian temperatures was es...
- by Högne Jungner and +1
- •
- Solar Physics, Phase Shift, High energy
Different records of solar activity (Wolf and group sunspot number, data on cosmogenic isotopes, historic data) were analyzed by means of modern statistical methods, including one especially developed for this purpose. It was confirmed... more
Different records of solar activity (Wolf and group sunspot number, data on cosmogenic isotopes, historic data) were analyzed by means of modern statistical methods, including one especially developed for this purpose. It was confirmed that two long-term variations in solar activity - the cycles of Gleissberg and Suess - can be distinguished at least during the last millennium. The results also show that the century-type cycle of Gleissberg has a wide frequency band with a double structure consisting of 50-80 years and 90-140 year periodicities. The structure of the Suess cycle is less complex showing a variation with a period of 170-260 years. Strong variability in Gleissberg and Suess frequency bands was found in northern hemisphere temperature multiproxy that confirms the existence of a long-term relationship between solar activity and terrestial climate.
The relative contribution from GCR intensity variations and anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere (the Suess effect) to the variation of 14C isotope content in annual tree rings is considered. The contribution from a... more
The relative contribution from GCR intensity variations and anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere (the Suess effect) to the variation of 14C isotope content in annual tree rings is considered. The contribution from a reduction in GCR intensity to the lowering of the cosmogenic 14C isotope content in tree rings from the middle of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century is shown to be comparable to the contribution from the Suess effect.
- by Högne Jungner and +1
- •
- Tree Ring
ABSTRACT The response of the nonlinear oscillatory system to an insignificant external disturbance has been considered as applied to the effect of solar activity on climatic processes. Based on a simplified model, it has been indicated... more
ABSTRACT The response of the nonlinear oscillatory system to an insignificant external disturbance has been considered as applied to the effect of solar activity on climatic processes. Based on a simplified model, it has been indicated that the response of a nonlinear oscillator to a weak disturbing impact can be substantial. The oscillator fluctuation spectrum can decrease under the action of a disturbing factor. This means that the effect of an even weak solar or cosmophysical signal to the Earth’s climatic system can lead to significant climate variations if this system is nonlinear. However, it will be rather difficult to identify the solar—climatic nature of these variations because a linear relation between the cause and response is absent.
- by Högne Jungner and +1
- •
ABSTRACT Reconstructions of solar activity in the past epochs based on information on the past atmospheric content of the cosmogenic 14C isotope are nowadays actively discussed. The 14C isotope is generated in the atmosphere of the Earth... more
ABSTRACT Reconstructions of solar activity in the past epochs based on information on the past atmospheric content of the cosmogenic 14C isotope are nowadays actively discussed. The 14C isotope is generated in the atmosphere of the Earth under the influence of cosmic rays, and its concentration in annual tree rings carries information on the past solar activity. However, the concentration of this isotope in annual tree rings may also be influenced by climatic factors. In the present work, the possible correlation between variations in the 14C atmospheric content and in the Earth's global temperature from the late 14th century to the middle of the 19th century is studied. It is shown that variations in global temperature may produce changes in the 14C atmospheric content and consequently have to be taken into account in reconstructions of the past solar activity.
- by Högne Jungner and +1
- •
Paleoclimatological reconstructions of temperature of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere for the last thousand years have been studied using the up-to-date methods of statistical analysis. It has bee indicated that the quasisecular (a period... more
Paleoclimatological reconstructions of temperature of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere for the last thousand years have been studied using the up-to-date methods of statistical analysis. It has bee indicated that the quasisecular (a period of 60–130 years) cyclicity, which is observed in the climate of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, has a bimodal structure, i.e., being composed of the 60–85 and 85–130 year periodicities. The possible relation of the quasisecular climatic rhythm to the corresponding Gleissberg solar cycle has been studied using the solar activity reconstructions performed with the help of the solar paleoastrophysics methods.
- by Högne Jungner and +1
- •
- Solar Activity, Northern Hemisphere
The bidecadal variability in terrestrial climate was analyzed. It was shown, that this variation might arise if Earth's climate reacts on galactic cosmic ray intensity, integrated over its full quasi 11-year cycle. It was found, that... more
The bidecadal variability in terrestrial climate was analyzed. It was shown, that this variation might arise if Earth's climate reacts on galactic cosmic ray intensity, integrated over its full quasi 11-year cycle. It was found, that this integral effect also could provide the effective link of climate with the duration of quasi 11-year cycle in cosmic ray flux. That, in
- by Högne Jungner and +1
- •
- Galactic Cosmic Ray(gcr)
Statistical analysis of the modern climatic tree-ring reconstructions has been per- formed using both Fourier and wavelet approach. A roughly regular centennial rhythm was found in global climate during the last millennium. It was shown... more
Statistical analysis of the modern climatic tree-ring reconstructions has been per- formed using both Fourier and wavelet approach. A roughly regular centennial rhythm was found in global climate during the last millennium. It was shown that this cen- tennial variation consists of two cycles - 55-80 yr and 100-130 yr periodicities. The century-type variation is more distinct in Northern Hemisphere
ABSTRACT Data on the concentrations of the cosmogenic 10Be isotope and Na+ and Ca2+ ions, as well as on ice accumulation rates in central Greenland, obtained by the GISP2 collaboration were studied in a time interval spanning about 40 000... more
ABSTRACT Data on the concentrations of the cosmogenic 10Be isotope and Na+ and Ca2+ ions, as well as on ice accumulation rates in central Greenland, obtained by the GISP2 collaboration were studied in a time interval spanning about 40 000 recent years. Joint analysis of the indicated glacial and chemical paleoseries demonstrated that in a period from 12 008 to 24 008 years ago, the 10Be flux variations were most free of influence of climate and changes in the geomagnetic dipole moment. As a consequence, this time interval is most suitable for studying periodicities of purely solar nature. Statistical analysis of the 10Be flux data has revealed significant variations with periods of 500–800 years and 1300–1600 years in the time interval from 12 008 to 17 008 years ago. This evidence favors the existence of the appropriate cycles of solar activity in the mentioned epoch. Similar periodicities are also revealed in the time interval from 3288 to 8008 years ago.
ABSTRACT Possible reasons for the temporal instability of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation were studied. It was shown that the detected earlier ∼60-year... more
ABSTRACT Possible reasons for the temporal instability of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation were studied. It was shown that the detected earlier ∼60-year oscillations of the amplitude and sign of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere pressure at high and middle latitudes (Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, Adv.Space Res., 2012) are closely related to the state of a cyclonic vortex forming in the polar stratosphere. The intensity of the vortex was found to reveal a roughly 60-year periodicity affecting the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the character of SA/GCR effects. An intensification of both Arctic anticyclones and mid-latitudinal cyclones associated with an increase of GCR fluxes at minima of the 11-year solar cycles is observed in the epochs of a strong polar vortex. In the epochs of a weak polar vortex SA/GCR effects on the development of baric systems at middle and high latitudes were found to change the sign. The results obtained provide evidence that the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray influences on the lower atmosphere circulation involves changes in the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex.
A technique for verifying the currently available reconstructions of solar activity in the preinstrumental epoch (prior to 1615 AD), covering time intervals up to 10 000 years, has been developed and tested. The technique is based on... more
A technique for verifying the currently available reconstructions of solar activity in the preinstrumental epoch (prior to 1615 AD), covering time intervals up to 10 000 years, has been developed and tested. The technique is based on investigation of the possibility of predicting the actual sunspot numbers determined by means of telescopic observations using reconstructed solar series. Testing several paleoreconstructions over time intervals as long as 10 000 years has shown that they most likely contain only qualitative information about the behavior of solar activity in the past and are not very suitable for extracting quantitative information. It is shown that the recently suggested hypothesis that the current level of solar activity is highest in the last 8000 years is only an arbitrary assumption that can be neither confirmed nor refuted at the present level of knowledge about the past of our star.