Jean Chateau

Russia, Norway and the Middle East are three regions that have distinct histories in energy policies. Current situations will make it more challenging for Russia and the Middle East to implement greenhouse gas abatement than it will be for Norway, even though all three are major energy producers. Relative to the world as a whole, Russia is most heavily impacted, with the Middle East less so but still significantly affected. Norway’s potential economic loss is only a little larger than the world average. This asymmetry implies that if the differences in impacts are not broadly understood, then international negotiations may be subjected to bargaining under asymmetric information. If so, they may not be able to reach agreement. The result reported here is thus a step in overcoming information asymmetries and facilitating successful negotiation. The results also have clear implications for the speed at which Russia undertakes energy market reforms, and for the manner in which Middle Ea...

This paper consider aggregate risks in a large-scale overlapping-generations equilibrium model that is calibrated to France demographic and economic properties. Two distinct sources of uncertainty are assumed : fertility and technological shocks. The paper considers two dierent issues. The first part of the paper is devoted to a standard RBC analysis. The main finding is that when both sources of

This paper analyses the marginal allocative and welfare effects of various structural budget-deficits in a representative-agent model where the Ricardian equivalence Theorem does not hold because of distortionary taxation. In order to carry out this analysis we perform numerical examples based upon a parameterized “typical" European economy.

Quoting a joint analysis made by the OECD and the IEA, G20 Leaders committed in September 2009 to ?rationalize and phase out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption?. This analysis was based on the OECD ENV-Linkages General Equilibrium model and shows that removing fossil fuel subsidies in a number of non-OECD countries could reduce world Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 10% in 2050 (OECD, 2009). Indeed, these subsidies are huge. IEA estimates indicate that total subsidies to fossil fuel consumption in 37 non-OECD countries in 2008 amounted to USD 557 billions (IEA, OPEC, OECD, World Bank, 2010). This represents almost five times the yearly bilateral aid flows to developing countries as defined by the Official Development Assistance (ODA). This paper discusses the assumptions, data and both environmental and economic implications of removing these subsidies. It shows that, though removing these subsidies would amount to roughly a s...

This paper examines the potential role of carbon sequestration in forests under a range of exogenously chosen carbon price paths. The price paths were chosen to simulate several different climate change policies. The results indicate that global sequestration could range from 48�147 Pg C by 2105 for carbon prices ranging from $100 to more than $800 per t C by the end of the century. The timing of sequestration is found to be sensitive to the assumed carbon price path. Low initial carbon prices ($10 - $20 per t C in 2010) followed by rapid price increases, as might occur if policy makers try to stabilize future concentrations, suggest little, if any, sequestration during the next 20 years (-0.2 to 4.5 Pg C). If policy makers develop policies that support higher initial carbon prices, ranging from $75 to $100 per t C, 17 to 23 Pg C could be sequestered in forests over the next 20 years. Overall, our results indicate that forestry is not an efficient stopgap measure for long-term polic...

ABSTRACT Using a computable general equilibrium model, this paper aims at quantifying gross domestic product and labour impacts of an illustrative greenhouse gas emissions reduction policy. Labour markets are first assumed to be totally flexible, climate policies impact negatively GDP and show relatively limited labour sectoral reallocations compared to last 20 years changes. The model is then modified to incorporate labour market imperfections in OECD countries. In this case, the production costs of mitigation policy are affected in two ways: first by introducing extra costs due to the increased unemployment that such policy may entail; second by creating the possibility of a double dividend effect when carbon taxes are recycled so as to reduce distorting taxes on labour income.

ABSTRACT Quoting a joint analysis made by the OECD and the IEA, G20 Leaders committed in September 2009 to “rationalize and phase out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption”. This analysis was based on the OECD ENV-Linkages General Equilibrium model and shows that removing fossil fuel subsidies in a number of non-OECD countries could reduce world Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 10% in 2050 (OECD, 2009). Indeed, these subsidies are huge. IEA estimates indicate that total subsidies to fossil fuel consumption in 37 non-OECD countries in 2008 amounted to USD 557 billions (IEA, OPEC, OECD, World Bank, 2010). This represents almost five times the yearly bilateral aid flows to developing countries as defined by the Official Development Assistance (ODA). This paper discusses the assumptions, data and both environmental and economic implications of removing these subsidies. It shows that, though removing these subsidies would amount to roughly a seventh of the effort needed to stabilize GHG concentration at a level of 450 ppm or below 2 °C, the full environmental benefit of this policy option can only be achieved if, in parallel, emissions are also capped in OECD countries. Finally, though removing these subsidies qualifies as being a “win-win” option at the global level in terms of environmental and economic benefits, this is not true for all countries/regions. The paper also provides some discussion about the robustness of these results.

Over the next few years, European countries will experience an unprecedented phenomenon as the numerous populations born in the post-war years reach retirement age. This ageing and the reforms of pension schemes necessary to accommodate it will modify national activity, saving and investment behaviours. However, the interdependence of financial markets means that the demographic and economic mutations observed in each country will not be without repercussions on the other members of the EU. This has been illustrated by a simulation centred on Germany, France and the United Kingdom and carried out in two contrasting financial environments. This simulation shows that the reforms implemented are insufficient: the financial imbalances cannot be supported in the long term, whatever the degree of financial openness. Therefore, new reforms seem necessary. The option of a reduction in the amount of pensions and that of a rise in contribution rates are explored.

Emissions trading systems (ETS) can play a major role in a cost-effective climate policy framework. Both direct linking of ETSs and indirect linking through a common crediting mechanism can reduce costs of action. We use a global recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the effects of direct and indirect linking of ETS systems across world regions. Linking of domestic

ABSTRACT We present a quantitative analysis of the impact of differential ageing and pension reforms on capital and labor market and, in particular, on intra-European capital flows. To this end, we develop a stylized general equilibrium model with overlapping generations of heterogeneous agents for the three largest European countries: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. The model presents a structure halfway between pure general equilibrium models with rigorous microeconomic foundations and accounting models where the macroeconomic environment remains exogenous. We show that the dynamics of capital accumulation and pension system sustainability are totally different depending on the assumption concerning economic openness. Finally, in the long run, resorting to debt financing seems to be a dead end to finance retirement systems.

ABSTRACT When carbon markets are fragmented and carbon prices vary across regions, concerns arise that acting countries may encounter competitiveness and welfare losses and changes in production may lead to carbon leakage. Border Carbon Adjustments (BCAs) have been proposed as a response measure to address these issues. However, more cooperative response policies, such as linking carbon markets, can also reduce the burden of emission reduction in acting countries and help level carbon prices. This paper analyses the effects of BCAs and both direct and indirect linking on welfare, competitiveness and carbon leakage within a global recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Results illustrate that an uneven carbon pricing can indeed lead to substantial competitiveness and welfare losses for acting countries as well as to carbon leakage. Of the instruments investigated in this paper, BCAs appear to be the best measure to preserve the competitiveness of acting countries as they shift part of the burden of emission reductions to non-acting countries. While BCAs are effective for acting countries, they cause severe welfare and competitiveness losses for non-acting countries. As a result, BCAs are less effective than linking in reducing global welfare losses, as linking tends to be beneficial for both acting and non-acting countries. The advantages of BCAs diminish as the carbon market is extended to more emission sources or to a wider international participation.