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We compare a Bayesian modelling-based technique with weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression in pollen-based summer temperature transfer function calibration. We test the methods using a... more
We compare a Bayesian modelling-based technique with weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression in pollen-based summer temperature transfer function calibration. We test the methods using a new, 113-sample calibration set from Estonia, Lithuania and European Russia, and a Holocene fossil pollen sequence from Lake Kharinei, a previously studied lake in northeast European Russia. We find WA-PLS to outperform WA, probably because of smaller edge-effect biases in the ends of the calibration set gradient. The Bayesian-based calibration models show further improved performance compared with WA-PLS in leave-one-out cross-validation, while additional h-block cross-validation shows the Bayesian method to be little affected by spatial autocorrelation. Comparison with independent climate proxies reveals, however, some clear biases in the Bayesian palaeotemperature reconstructions, likely reflecting in part some specific limitations of our calibration set. As the selected prior parameters can significantly affect both Bayesian cross-validation performance and reconstructions, there is a clear need to further test the Bayesian method in different geographic contexts and over different timescales, with special attention given to the selection of the most realistic priors in each situation. In general, our finding that statistically well-performing transfer functions may produce clearly differing palaeotemperature reconstructions urges caution in transfer function-based inferences. We additionally test a spatially restricted, 58-sample subset of the full 113-sample calibration set. We find some reduced biases with the smaller set, likely because of complex, partially bimodal responses of several taxa along the longer temperature gradient, ill-suited for calibration methods assuming unimodal responses to climate.
Pattern classification using neural networks and statistical methods is discussed. We first give a tutorial overview that groups popular classifiers according to their underlying mathematical principles into several distinct categories.... more
Pattern classification using neural networks and statistical methods is discussed. We first give a tutorial overview that groups popular classifiers according to their underlying mathematical principles into several distinct categories. Starting from the Bayes classifier, one division is whether the classifier is explicitly estimating class conditional densities, or directly estimating the posterior probabilities by regression. Another criterion is the flexibility of the architecture in the sense of how rich the discriminant function family is. Still one dimension is neural vs. nonneural learning: neural learning is characterized by simple local computations in a number of real or virtual processing elements. Based on these comparisons, a number of classification methods were selected for a case study that uses handwritten digit data. An effort was made to get fair estimates of their true classification performance, thus training set cross-validation was extensively used to design t...
We report a method for reconstructing temperatures from proxy data based on Bayesian multi-scale smoothing. The main features of the method is that it makes possible a simultaneous utilization of multiple proxies and sites to achieve a... more
We report a method for reconstructing temperatures from proxy data based on Bayesian multi-scale smoothing. The main features of the method is that it makes possible a simultaneous utilization of multiple proxies and sites to achieve a regional `consensus' reconstruction of temperature, it enables various types of uncertainties (e.g., chronology) to be taken into account, and that it also allows significant features to be detected from the emerging time series. Applying the method to multiple proxy data derived from lakes in Finnish Lapland suggests that, contrary to the conventional view, Holocene climate cooling in the North Atlantic region started already c. 8.5 kyr, and that climate since then was punctuated by several quasi-cyclical climate events, the forcing mechanisms of which are not yet fully understood. Our study suggests that inconsistencies in climate reconstructions between different proxy sources may be at least partly spurious; there is probably no single narrati...
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We give an overview of pattern recognition, concentrating on the problem of pattern classification. Several popular discrimination methods are reviewed using decision theory as a unifying framework. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons,... more
We give an overview of pattern recognition, concentrating on the problem of pattern classification. Several popular discrimination methods are reviewed using decision theory as a unifying framework. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.
This report describes an electromagnetic scattering model for the computation of remote sensing quantities from a forested region. Several scattering models have been developed in the past with di#ering degrees of complexity. A large... more
This report describes an electromagnetic scattering model for the computation of remote sensing quantities from a forested region. Several scattering models have been developed in the past with di#ering degrees of complexity. A large class of models utilizes a radiative transfer formulation to compute scattering cross sections (see [12] for a general overview). An example is the model used by Pullianen et al. [9, 10] for comparison with microwave measurements of boreal forests. This model can be extended to handle quite complicated layer structures, as with the Michigan Microwave Canopy Scattering Model (MIMICS) applied in [7] and [14]. While the radiative transfer approach is valid and can yield good comparisons with data, it ignores the coherent scattering that may occur within the tree structure. A discrete scatterer model has been used in [1] to model the volume scattering and a branching model was employed in [16] to account for structural e#ects. The random nature of the trees...
The aim of this study was to compare facial 3D analysis to DNA testing in twin zygosity determinations. Facial 3D images of 106 pairs of young adult Lithuanian twins were taken with a stereophotogrammetric device (3dMD, Atlanta, Georgia)... more
The aim of this study was to compare facial 3D analysis to DNA testing in twin zygosity determinations. Facial 3D images of 106 pairs of young adult Lithuanian twins were taken with a stereophotogrammetric device (3dMD, Atlanta, Georgia) and zygosity was determined according to similarity of facial form. Statistical pattern recognition methodology was used for classification. The results showed that in 75% to 90% of the cases, zygosity determinations were similar to DNA-based results. There were 81 different classification scenarios, including 3 groups, 3 features, 3 different scaling methods, and 3 threshold levels. It appeared that coincidence with 0.5 mm tolerance is the most suitable feature for classification. Also, leaving out scaling improves results in most cases. Scaling was expected to equalize the magnitude of differences and therefore lead to better recognition performance. Still, better classification features and a more effective scaling method or classification in dif...
LASSO is a penalized regression method that facilitates model fitting in situations where there are as many, or even more explanatory variables than observations, and only a few variables are relevant in explaining the data. We focus on... more
LASSO is a penalized regression method that facilitates model fitting in situations where there are as many, or even more explanatory variables than observations, and only a few variables are relevant in explaining the data. We focus on the Bayesian version of LASSO and consider four problems that need special attention: (i) controlling false positives, (ii) multiple comparisons, (iii) collinearity among explanatory variables, and (iv) the choice of the tuning parameter that controls the amount of shrinkage and the sparsity of the estimates. The particular application considered is association genetics, where LASSO regression can be used to find links between chromosome locations and phenotypic traits in a biological organism. However, the proposed techniques are relevant also in other contexts where LASSO is used for variable selection. We separate the true associations from false positives using the posterior distribution of the effects (regression coefficients) provided by Bayesi...
Probability density estimation using the probabilistic neural network or the kernel method is considered. In its basic form this method can be computationally prohibitive, as all training data need to be stored and each individual... more
Probability density estimation using the probabilistic neural network or the kernel method is considered. In its basic form this method can be computationally prohibitive, as all training data need to be stored and each individual training vector gives rise to a new term of the estimate. Given an original training sample of size N in a d-dimensional space, a simple
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
This paper is concerned with detecting image features that appear in different scales or resolutions. A new ap- proach is proposed that uses Bayesian statistical modeling and simulation based inference. The method can be viewed as a... more
This paper is concerned with detecting image features that appear in different scales or resolutions. A new ap- proach is proposed that uses Bayesian statistical modeling and simulation based inference. The method can be viewed as a further development of SiZer technology, originally de- signed for nonparametric curve fitting. A strength of the Bayesian approach is its flexibility that facilitates
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
A density estimation approach to statistical pattern recognition is discussed. The pattern vector is split into two parts factoring a high dimensional class density function into a product of two lower dimensional density functions. The... more
A density estimation approach to statistical pattern recognition is discussed. The pattern vector is split into two parts factoring a high dimensional class density function into a product of two lower dimensional density functions. The first factor, corresponding to the non-Gaussian structure in the data, is modeled nonparametrically. The second factor is modeled as a multivariate Gaussian conditionally on the
We report a method for reconstructing temperatures from proxy data based on Bayesian multi-scale smoothing. The main features of the method is that it makes possible a simultaneous utilization of multiple proxies and sites to achieve a... more
We report a method for reconstructing temperatures from proxy data based on Bayesian multi-scale smoothing. The main features of the method is that it makes possible a simultaneous utilization of multiple proxies and sites to achieve a regional `consensus' reconstruction of temperature, it enables various types of uncertainties (e.g., chronology) to be taken into account, and that it also allows significant features to be detected from the emerging time series. Applying the method to multiple proxy data derived from lakes in Finnish Lapland suggests that, contrary to the conventional view, Holocene climate cooling in the North Atlantic region started already c. 8.5 kyr, and that climate since then was punctuated by several quasi-cyclical climate events, the forcing mechanisms of which are not yet fully understood. Our study suggests that inconsistencies in climate reconstructions between different proxy sources may be at least partly spurious; there is probably no single narrat...
The computational cost of multivariate kernel density estimation can be reduced by prebinning the data. The data are discretized to a grid and a weighted kernel estimator is computed. We report results on the accuracy of such a binned... more
The computational cost of multivariate kernel density estimation can be reduced by prebinning the data. The data are discretized to a grid and a weighted kernel estimator is computed. We report results on the accuracy of such a binned kernel estimator and discuss the computational complexity of the estimator as measured by its average number of nonzero terms.

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