Jean-pierre Allegret

[fre] Pour analyser les structures de gouvernement potentielles entre les banques et les entreprises, les auteurs étudient la pertinence du concept de quasi-intégration pour caractériser la relation banque-entreprise. Trois formes pures de gouvernement banque-entreprise sont ainsi mises en évidence : le marché, la quasi- intégration et la hiérarchie. Des éléments descriptifs empruntés aux modèles allemands et japonais permettent de caractériser ces structures de gouvernement. Si, dans une relation de marché, l'incitation à court terme constitue la forme de coordination principale, dans la relation hiérarchique, c'est l'autorité. Enfin, dans la relation de quasi- intégration, trois formes de coordination se combinent, l'autorité, l'incitation et la confiance. Compte tenu de cette pluralité, la quasi-intégration constitue une forme organisationnelle efficiente, notamment pour les PME confrontées à l'incertitude et à la mutation des marchés. [eng] To analyse governance structures between banks and firms, the authors test the relevance of the concept of « quasi-integration » use in industrial economics to indicate an intermediate transaction between market and hierarchy. The criterion of information is here essential to study the relation between firms and banks. In a quasi-integration relationship, first information is shared and generates sunk costs, second the relation is a long term one, and last such a relation allow the firm to invest in innovative projects. Whereas in a market relationship, incentive is the principal form of coordination, in a hierarchy relationship, it is in fact authority. In the second part of the paper, we show that in a quasi-integration relationship, three forms of coordination are combined together : authority, incentive and trust. Because of this plurality, such governance structure leads to efficiency, by reducing internal uncertainty that burdens the transaction between banks and firms, and by promoting adaptability and flexibility when the environment is changing.

ABSTRACT Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a sharp increase in oil prices. In this paper, we investigate this oil price-current account relationship on a sample of 27 oil-exporting economies. Relying upon the estimation of panel smooth transition regression models over the 1980-2010 period, we provide evidence that refines the traditional interpretation of oil price effects on current accounts. While current accounts are positively affected by oil price variations, this effect is nonlinear and depends critically on the degree of financial development of oil-exporting economies. More specifically, oil price variations exert a stronger impact on the current account position for less financially developed countries, this influence diminishing with financial deepness.

Ce working paper regroupe trois projets d'articles qui ont pour même thème les anticipations d'inflation et leur utilisation dans le cadre de la politique monétaire. Ils est apparu opportun de les synthétiser sous la forme de trois parties d'un seul document, permettant ainsi au lecteur d'avoir une vision aussi complète que possible sur cette question. La première partie est d'ordre théorique et présente la littérature. La deuxième rappelle cette littérature, précise les caractéristiques d'une politique monétaire fondée sur le ciblage direct de l'inflation, et propose une vérification économétrique dans le cas français. La troisième étend cette méthodologie au cas de la zone euro et en montre les difficultés.

ABSTRACT This paper contributes to the literature on monetary policy responses in emerging economies to international financial crises. Such an issue is especially relevant for these countries insofar as they tend to be more unstable than developed countries. In addition, they suffer from larger cumulative output losses that have long-lasting negative effects on growth. If the earlier literature has suggested that emerging countries conduct pro-cyclical policies that exacerbate the impact of shocks, recent findings drawn from the experience of the global financial crisis show that they tend to more frequently adopt counter-cyclical monetary policies. However, even in the last crisis, all countries did not conduct expansionary monetary policies. Among the factors explaining such a behavior, the literature identifies the currency mismatch. This paper is related to this literature. It analyzes monetary policy responses to common financial shocks over the period 1995-2010 for a sample of ten emerging European countries. Emerging Europe has especially suffered from the global financial crisis. Three monetary instruments are analyzed: the nominal short-term interest rate, the real exchange rate, and the foreign exchange reserves. Our empirical methodology used structural Bayesian vector autoregressive (SBVAR) models over two crises periods (1995Q1-2001Q4 and 2002Q1-2010Q4). Our main findings are the following. First, common international financial shocks lead to different monetary policy responses. Second, countries with high currency mismatch ratios suffer from both fear of floating and fear of losing international reserves.

Abstract: La transparence est devenue l'un des piliers des banques centrales et des institutions internationales afin d'accroître leur efficacité. Dans cet article, nous nous interrogeons sur le bien fondé de cette stratégie en proposant une synthèse de la littérature existante. A ...