Ulrich Hoffrage
University of Lausanne, Faculty of Business and Economics, Faculty Member
Many models of (un)ethical decision making assume that people decide rationally and are in principle able to evaluate their decisions from a moral point of view. However, people might behave unethically without being aware of it. They are... more
Many models of (un)ethical decision making assume that people decide rationally and are in principle able to evaluate their decisions from a moral point of view. However, people might behave unethically without being aware of it. They are ethically blind. Adopting a sensemaking approach, we argue that ethical blindness results from a complex interplay between individual sensemaking activities and context factor
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heuristics need an automatic frequency counter for ordering cues. In fact, only a few heuristics order cues, and these orderings can arise from evolutionary, social, or individual learning, none of which requires automatic frequency... more
heuristics need an automatic frequency counter for ordering cues. In fact, only a few heuristics order cues, and these orderings can arise from evolutionary, social, or individual learning, none of which requires automatic frequency counting. The idea that cue validities cannot be computed because memory does not encode missing information is misinformed; it implies that measures of co-occurrence are incomputable and would invalidate most theories of cue learning. They also questioned the recognition heuristic’s psychological plausibility on the basis of their belief that it has not been implemented in a memory model, although it actually has been implemented in ACT-R (L. J. Schooler & R. Hertwig, 2005). On the positive side, M. R. Dougherty et al. discovered a new mechanism for a less-is-more effect. The authors of the present article specify minimal criteria for psychological plausibility, describe some genuine challenges in the study of heuristics, and conclude that fast and frug...
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KNAW Narcis. Back to search results. Publication Group report: Is there evidence for an adaptive toolbox? (2001). Pagina-navigatie: Main. ...
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Research Interests: Psychology and Intuition
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One-reason decision-making heuristics as proposed by Gigerenzer, Todd, and the ABC Research Group (1999) have been shown to perform accurately. However, such strategies cannot deal with compound cues. We propose the Take The Best... more
One-reason decision-making heuristics as proposed by Gigerenzer, Todd, and the ABC Research Group (1999) have been shown to perform accurately. However, such strategies cannot deal with compound cues. We propose the Take The Best Configural Cue (TTB-Configural) as a fast and frugal heuristic that processes compound cues. In a series of three experiments, we analysed whether participants used this heuristic when making cue-based inferences on which of two alternatives had a higher criterion value. In two of the experiments, two cues were amalgamated into a valid compound cue by applying the AND or the OR logical rule, respectively. In the third experiment, there was no valid compound cue. Within each experiment, we also manipulated causal mental models through instructions. In the configural causal model, cues were said to act through the same causal mechanism. In the elemental causal model, cues were said to act through different causal mechanisms. In the neutral causal model, the c...
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Three experiments investigated whether participants used Take The Best (TTB) Configural, a fast and frugal heuristic that processes configurations of cues when making inferences concerning which of two alternatives has a higher criterion... more
Three experiments investigated whether participants used Take The Best (TTB) Configural, a fast and frugal heuristic that processes configurations of cues when making inferences concerning which of two alternatives has a higher criterion value. Participants were presented with a ...
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ABSTRACT Schelling (1969, 1971a,b, 1978) observed that macro-level patterns do not necessarily reflect micro-level intentions, desires or goals. In his classic model on neighborhood segregation which initiated a large and influential... more
ABSTRACT Schelling (1969, 1971a,b, 1978) observed that macro-level patterns do not necessarily reflect micro-level intentions, desires or goals. In his classic model on neighborhood segregation which initiated a large and influential literature, individuals with no desire to be segregated from those who belong to other social groups nevertheless wind up clustering with their own type. Most extensions of Schelling's model have replicated this result. There is an important mismatch, however, between theory and observation, which has received relatively little attention. Whereas Schelling-inspired models typically predict large degrees of segregation starting from virtually any initial condition, the empirical literature documents considerable heterogeneity in measured levels of segregation. This paper introduces a mechanism that can produce significantly higher levels of integration and, therefore, brings predicted distributions of segregation more in line with real-world observation. As in the classic Schelling model, agents in a simulated world want to stay or move to a new location depending on the proportion of neighbors they judge to be acceptable. In contrast to the classic model, agents' classifications of their neighbors as acceptable or not depend lexicographically on recognition first and group type (e.g., ethnic stereotyping) second. The FACE-recognition model nests classic Schelling: When agents have no recognition memory, judgments about the acceptability of a prospective neighbor rely solely on his or her group type (as in the Schelling model). A very small amount of recognition memory, however, eventually leads to different classifications that, in turn, produce dramatic macro-level effects resulting in significantly higher levels of integration. A novel implication of the FACE-recognition model concerns the large potential impact of policy interventions that generate modest numbers of face-to-face encounters with members of other social groups.
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While Lee and Schwarz propose grounded procedures of separation as an explanation for physical cleansing in various domains (e.g., washing one's hands), we suggest that separation can also account for behavioral cleansing aimed at... more
While Lee and Schwarz propose grounded procedures of separation as an explanation for physical cleansing in various domains (e.g., washing one's hands), we suggest that separation can also account for behavioral cleansing aimed at washing consciences and polishing reputations. We discuss this extension in terms of degrees of behavioral cleansing, motivations, and intentions behind cleansing, and social settings.
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In this chapter, we discuss why risks are often not communicated in a transparent and understandable way and why this is problematic. At the core of the chapter are four examples that illustrate how risk communication can be improved.... more
In this chapter, we discuss why risks are often not communicated in a transparent and understandable way and why this is problematic. At the core of the chapter are four examples that illustrate how risk communication can be improved. These examples are (a) the use of natural frequencies in the context of diagnostic reasoning, (b) the use of visual aids to support the beneficial effect of natural frequency representations, (c) the use of natural frequencies to clarify the distinction between relative and absolute risk reduction, and (d) a clarification of the meaning and pitfalls of survival rates that are often used to quantify the benefit of screening programs. In each of these topics, we describe original empirical studies illuminating a specific problem as well as how these problems can be overcome, and we discuss practical implications of the results and the proposed solutions. Subsequently, we illustrate, using an example from mammography screening, what transparent risk commu...
Crossing the street in front of oncoming vehicles poses serious danger to young children. In this research, we tried to identify children who are particularly prone to making risky crossing decisions. We used simple games involving risk... more
Crossing the street in front of oncoming vehicles poses serious danger to young children. In this research, we tried to identify children who are particularly prone to making risky crossing decisions. We used simple games involving risk to classify 5- to 6-year-olds as risk takers or risk avoiders. Children classified as risk takers made more ¶Go¸ decisions than risk avoiders when faced with the task to cross a busy one-way street. They also tolerated shorter time intervals between initiation of the step off the curb and arrival of the next vehicle, had a somewhat higher probability of causing an accident (hypothetically defined), and made decisions more quickly than risk avoiders. We relate these results to previous research and discuss how they might be used to improve traffic safety programs.
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A new framework is introduced that models group decision making by using simple group heuristics (SIGH). We report results of a set of simulations that systematically varied (a) the group members’ strategies (compensatory unit weight... more
A new framework is introduced that models group decision making by using simple group heuristics (SIGH). We report results of a set of simulations that systematically varied (a) the group members’ strategies (compensatory unit weight model, UWM, and a noncompensatory lexicographic heuristic, LEX), (b) the distribution of cue validities (J-shaped vs. linear), and (c) the quantity and quality of shared information. Individual decisions were aggregated by using a majority decision rule (proportionality in case of ties). (1) The simulations revealed strong effects of the distribution of cue validities on group performance. When validities were linearly distributed, UWM gained an 8% better accuracy than LEX by considering all cues. Yet, if cue validities followed a J-shaped distribution, the much more frugal LEX surpassed the UWM by achieving a 16% higher accuracy. (2) This effect was robust across different quantities of shared information. (3) Systematic allocation of information in fa...
Im Zusammenhang mit diesen empirischen Befunden wird häufig die These vertreten, dass gute Gruppenentscheidungen einen möglichst vollständigen Informationsaustausch unter den Gruppenmitgliedern voraussetzen (z. B. Wittenbaum und Stasser... more
Im Zusammenhang mit diesen empirischen Befunden wird häufig die These vertreten, dass gute Gruppenentscheidungen einen möglichst vollständigen Informationsaustausch unter den Gruppenmitgliedern voraussetzen (z. B. Wittenbaum und Stasser 1996). Demnach ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass eine Gruppe eine gute Entscheidung fällen wird umso höher, je mehr Lösungsvorschläge in einer Gruppe generiert und je mehr Informationen im Entscheidungsprozess berücksichtigt werden.
ZusammenfassungVerantwortung bedeutet, Antworten geben zu können, sei es auf Fragen von Betroffenen oder des eigenen Gewissens. Um in diesem Sinn Verantwortung tragen zu können, ist es gut, über einen inneren moralischen Kompass zu... more
ZusammenfassungVerantwortung bedeutet, Antworten geben zu können, sei es auf Fragen von Betroffenen oder des eigenen Gewissens. Um in diesem Sinn Verantwortung tragen zu können, ist es gut, über einen inneren moralischen Kompass zu verfügen, der einem zuverlässig anzeigt, was ethisch ist und was nicht. Doch leider funktioniert dieser Kompass nicht immer. Ethische Blindheit ist ein Zustand, in dem jemand vorübergehend die ethischen Dimensionen des eigenen Verhaltens nicht mehr sieht. Dieser Zustand kann durch ein Zusammenspiel von Personen- und kontextuellen Faktoren begünstigt werden. Innerhalb der Person lassen sich sogenannte kognitive Frames (d. h. mentale Strukturen) lokalisieren und außen können 3 Kontextebenen unterschieden werden: Makro, Meso und die der unmittelbaren Situation. Die Wirkung dieser Faktoren wird durch Beispiele illustriert, vornehmlich solche, die zu unethischem Verhalten führen bzw. geführt haben und damit die Fähigkeit zu verantwortungsvollem Handeln infrage stellen. Philip Zimbardos 10-Punkte-Programm für verantwortliches Handeln kann als Versuch gesehen werden, das Risiko für ethische Blindheit zu verringern und Menschen für Verantwortungsübernahme zu stärken.AbstractResponsibility is the ability to give responses, whether to questions from those affected or from one’s own conscience. To bear responsibility in this sense, it is good to have an internal moral compass that reliably indicates what is ethical and what is not. Unfortunately, this compass does not always work. Ethical blindness is a state in which someone temporarily no longer sees the ethical dimensions of his or her own behavior. This state may be facilitated by an interaction of personal and contextual factors. Within the person, there are cognitive frames (i. e., mental structures), and on the outside, three types of context can be distinguished: macro, meso, and the immediate situation. The effect of these factors is illustrated by examples, notably those that lead to or have led to unethical behavior and thus question the ability to act responsibly. Philip Zimbardo’s ten-step program for responsible behavior can be seen as an attempt to reduce the risk of ethical blindness and empower people to assume responsibility.