secondary-cities Presentation DFID 14th April

Secondary Cities – Key Links for Equitable and Sustainable City Systems Presentation Professor Brian Roberts to DFID, London, 14 April 2014 Secondary Systems of Cities: Why they are Important to the Sustainable Development of Nations and Regions Outline 1. Why should we interested in the problems of Secondary Systems of cities? 2. What are Secondary Cities? 3. What are the major trends driving the growth of secondary cities? 4. What are the major challenges and opportunities for integrated, sustainable, just, and inclusive growth? 5. Why should emerging economies consider secondary cities? 6. How can international development organization so to help support the development of secondary cities? What's the Problem? • Most secondary cities – even in developed economies – are not performing as well as they could do. Programs to support the development of secondary cities have focused on the development of better cities and not on building a system of better cities. • The new global economic geography of cities, with a focus on the megacities and large urban regions, is leading to the neglect of secondary cities and growing regional disparities between systems of cities in countries. The GDP per capita of Mumbai is 7 times national GDP per capita. Large cities are receiving significantly disproportional levels of investment and capital transfers. • Regional and national urban policies have failed to address issues of the need for competition and enhancement of trade between systems of cities, improved logistics and governance arrangements. Urban policies related to secondary cities are not addressing the need for change and, as a result, they are falling behind in the development race. • Many Secondary cities in developing countries are struggling to cope with rapid urban growth or decline because of a failure by government to embrace change management and create the enabling environments and strategic infrastructure needed to create jobs, investment and diversify the economic base of local economies. • 75-80% of global GDP is produced in urban areas. Over 50 % of the World’s urban population live urban settlements of less than 500,000 people. However, these smaller urban settlements generate less half the GDP generated by large cities. This significantly disadvantages people living in secondary cities and smaller urban settlements. What are Secondary Cities? • There is no universally agreed definition for the term “secondary city”. • They form part of the order or systems of cities. • They will likely have a population or economy ranging in size between 10% and 50 % of a nation’s largest city. This may range from a few hundred thousand to several million. • Secondary cities are not primary cities. Nor are small cities with populations of less than 100,000. They are everything in between. • Population size is still a determining factor in the definition of a secondary city, but in an age of growing competition, trade, and exchanges between cities globally the meaning of the term has changed. Hierarchical Systems of Cities Proportional relationship between Largest and Smaller cities by Countries South Africa India Christaller Central Place Theory Krugman, Paul (1995) Proportional Hierarchy of Cities China Functionality Typology of Secondary Cities Functional Specialization Examples of Cities Government Mecca (SAD) Ameristar (IND) Lourdes (FRA) Hue (VN) Bethlehem (PAL) Kandy (SLK) Timbuktu (MAL) Abuja (NIG) Brasilia (BRZ) Islamabad (PKS) Washington (USA) Canberra (AUS) Pretoria (SA) Education Oxford (UK) Cambridge (UK) Yogyakarta (IDO) Boston (USA) Heavy Industry Lille (FRA) Busan (KOR) Buffalo (USA) Advanced Manufacturing Toulouse (FRA) Basal (GDR) Seattle (USA) Pusan (KDR) Curitiba (BRZ) Knowledge Services Cambridge (UK) Yogyakarta (IND) Seattle (USA) Kumasi (GAN) Logistics St Louis (USA) Vladivostok (RUS) Cape Town (SA) Manaus (BRZ) Media & Entertainment Wellington (NZ) Gold Coast (AUS) Nashville (USA) Culture & Religion Primary Production & Processing Mendoza (ARG) Bologna (ITL) Tampa (USA) Belo Horizonte (BRZ) Perth (AUS) Bloemfontein (SA) Mining & Resource Extraction Tourism and Leisure Luxor (EGY) Chang Mai (THD) Cusco (PER) Arusha (TAZ) Katmandu (NPL) Trade & Commerce Aleppo (SYR) Alexandria (EGY) Marseille (FRA) Examples of Functional Secondary Cities Function and role are defining a secondary city’s status within the global system of cities Wellington New Zealand. Home of Production of Lord or the Rings and Hobbit Population 400,000 Cusco, Peru. Gateway Cities to Tourism and Culture Population 500,000 Toulouse , France. Home of Airbus International Airline Production Population 450,000 Mendoza, Argentina, Major Centre of LA wine industry Population 1.05 million Abuja, Nigeria. National Capital City for Africa's largest Democracy Population 1 million Curitiba , Brazil, Major Centre Automobile Manufacturing in LA Population 2. 1 million Three Geographic Typologies of Secondary Cities Curitiba Administrative Provincial Capital Source: Google Earth City Cluster Development, Bangkok Thailand Source: Angel et at 2012 Corridor Secondary City Development South America Source: CAF Why the Development of Secondary Systems of Cities is Important?  75% of the world’s population live in rural areas and urban settlements of less than 500,000 people;  They produce less than 40% of world GDP but provide most of the resources needed to support the operations and development of the world’s largest cities 600 cities which produces 60% of World GDP;  If the efficiency of secondary systems of cities were to improve this could double or triple the GDP of many poor cities and rural regions;  Countries which have a less distorted system of secondary cities and not dominated by one mega city generally have lower levels of regional development disparities, higher levels of national productivity and income per capita. Trends and Prospects  Differential Performance of Primary and Secondary Cities • GDP /Capita Jakarta 2.8 x NGDP (Sever Primary City Distortion) • GDP/Capita Sao Paulo 1.9 xNGDP (Moderate Primary City Distortion)  >30% of global urban growth between 2015-2025 (240 million) will occur in cities with population between 1-5 million  In Sub-Saharan Africa >65 % of urban growth (2015-2025) is expected to occur in cities greater than 5 million  Coastal Secondary cities perform better economically than inland secondary cities, except for resource based cities.  Urban Densities in secondary cities tend to be < 50% of large urban-region cities.  Gini Coefficient and HDI index appear to be rising faster in Secondary cities than in large metropolitan region cities  Secondary Cities focused on competitiveness, networking, linkage, trade and endogenous growth development and liveability prosper most. Number of Cities by Size 2025 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 • 4000 cities greater than 100,000 population • 2400 cities are home to cities of less than 750,000 population • 60 percent of these cities are located in developing countries 750 572 424 305 81 91 37 59 3 9 WORLD Africa 12 million + 2025 71 71 2 7 Sub-Saharan Africa 22 32 Asia 5–10 million 2025 3 3 57 96 74 73 6 5 3 9 50 60 1 5 6 Northern Oceania Latin America and America the Caribbean 1–5 million 2025 0.5–1 million 2025 Europe Performance Indonesian & Brazilian Cities Indoinesian Cities Jakarta Surabaya Bandung Medan Samerang Makassar Denpassar Balikpapan GDP $ bn 156 26 34 17 9 10 5 12 Population Mn GDP/Capita 10.2 $15,340 GDP $ bn GDP $M /Km2 City/ National GDP ratio $154 2.8 3.1 $8,300 2,456 $20 0.7 2.4 $14,000 2,520 $35 0.7 2.1 $7,960 2,080 $17 0.6 1.55 $2,400 1,584 $4 0.4 1.33 $7,600 1,760 $13 0.5 0.79 $6,400 1,944 $12 0.5 $19,250 1,300 $25 3.2 $4,923 3,557 0.639 National Brazilian City PPKm2 10,048 Population Mn GDP/Capita PPKm2 GDP $M /Km2 City/ National GDP ratio São Paulo, Brazil 437 19.68 $22,205 7,435 $165 1.9 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Brasília Belo Horizonte Porto Alegre Campinas Curitiba Salvador Recife Fortaleza Vitória Manaus Goiâniai Belém National 187 106 79 68 65 58 49 36 31 31 31 23 15 11.83 3.78 5.41 3.95 2.9 3.15 3.57 3.69 3.61 1.69 2.1 2.17 2.1 $15,807 $28,122 $14,603 $17,215 $22,379 $18,430 $13,725 $9,756 $8,587 $18,365 $14,762 $10,599 $7,143 4,780 480 7,290 3,045 1,360 4,030 3,790 7,135 8,100 3,540 1,730 1,600 1,320 $76 $13 $106 $52 $30 $74 $52 $70 $70 $65 $26 $17 $9 1.3 2.4 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 $11,747 Coastal Cities in China Out-Perform Inland Cities 30,000 25,000 20,000 $US 15,000 10,000 Beijing, 12,643 Shanghai, 12,783 5,000 0 0 2 4 6 8 Coastal Port Cities Inland Cities Inland River Port City Primary Cities 10 12 14 16 Inland Resource Rich City 18 The major challenges for integrated, sustainable, just, and inclusive growth 1. How to get national governments committed to policies and programs to build strong national system of competitive, productive, inclusive and sustainable system of secondary cities. 2. How to achieve integrated and collaborative urban governance, administrative planning, financial, information and asset management systems. 3. How to create and build urban and regional logistics systems which support efficient and effective rural /urban and urban/urban linkages, integrated transportation, communications and supply chain systems; and seamless logistics supporting the movements or transfers of people, goods, information and services. 4. How to identify, rebuild and develop local strategic infrastructure needed to support demand driven economic and social development 5. How to achieve better physical, fiscal and inclusive planning, management and development of urban and periurban land, markets and redevelopment and slum settlement areas 6. How to support demand-driven approaches to skills and technology development, innovation, civic and management information systems 7. How to create and build an enabling environment that is responsive to risk, attractive to investment, job creation and new industry development, reduces externality and transaction costs and fosters equity and liveability 8. How should Development Agencies and International NGOs engage with Secondary Cities to support their development Why should emerging economies consider secondary cities? 1. They If the functions and competitiveness of countries' or geographic region’s systems of secondary cities are not improved, they will lose competitive advantage, struggle to attract investment and create jobs, face increasing environmental problems and management of migration and slum settlement, and experience increases in sub-national regional disparities in economic and social conditions between cities. 2. National indicators of progress and performance can be improved significantly if governments were to give greater attention to devolution, decentralization and collaboration of governance and financial systems, and to invest strategically in the development of regional local strategic infrastructure and enabling environments of secondary cities and their hinterlands. 3. The prospects of making sub-national economic development occur; encouraging inter and intra-city trade, markets, investment, and travel, within and between systems of cities will not happen without substantial investment to improve, linkage, rural urban supply chain systems, investment in technology knowledge, human and social capital stocks of secondary cities. 4. Investing in secondary cities should take pressures off the management and development of large urban region cities, reduce the risks of having so much of a country’s capital tied up in one or two large cities, lower migration rates to these cities, and lessen environmental problems and footprints synomonous with large cities. Strategies for Secondary City Development Strategies to Support Secondary Cities Development must have a focus on: 1. Scope and scale 2. Systems approach to planning, management and program delivery 3. Needs of location, typology, governance, function and logistics Scoping and Scaling Activities for Secondary Cities Activities to be Focused at Different Scales Scope of Activities to be Integrated and Programmatic Governance Policy and Strategy Regional Level Secondary City Level • • • Sub National Cities Clustered Cities Economic Trade Corridor cities Local Area Level Multi-lateral Investment & Resource Management Strategic Capacity Infrastructure Development Systems Management Options for Spatial Economic Development Strategies for Secondary Cities Sub- National Secondary City Development Key Investment Strategies for Sub National Secondary City Development • Vertical and horizontal integration of governance, finance and planning systems • Integrated sub-national transport, information and logistics hubs and systems • Sub National Industry clusters • Managed Peri-urban • Secondary City Employment, Investment, Education, innovation growth poles • Affordable and sustainable housing • Revenue base underpinning development and services delivery • Maintenance and rehabilitation of Sub National Region Environmental services Rural Urban Supply Chain linkages Sub National administrative or manufacturing secondary city hub City to city linkages City to city linkages and Collaboration Secondary City Hub and logistics centre Sub Secondary Urban logistics centre Sub National Tourism or resource-based secondary city hub Metro Region Strategies for Clustered City Development Key Investment Strategies for Clustered City Development • • • • • • • • Integrated urban region governance, finance and planning Integrated transport, information and logistics systems Focus on Industry clusters and specialization Managed Peri-urban and Inner city Redevelopment Secondary City Employment, Investment, innovation growth poles Mixed density, income, affordable and sustainable housing Revenue base underpinning development and services delivery Maintenance and rehabilitation of Environmental services Spill over New and Expanded Secondary Cities Expanded Urban Area Spill over New and Expanded Secondary Cities Old Primate City • • High level Services Commercial and Port Metropolitan Region Clustered Secondary Cities Business and Commercial Centres Economic Enterprise Zones Key Strategic Infrastructure Regional Economic Trade Corridor Secondary Cities Key Investment Strategies for Corridor Secondary City Development • • • • • • • • Integrated regional trade corridor governance and planning Integrated Open transport, information and logistics systems Focus on Urban growth nodes, Industry clusters and specialization Managed Peri-urban Corridor Development Secondary City Employment, Education and Investment Affordable and sustainable housing City Revenue base underpinning development and services delivery Maintenance and rehabilitation of Corridor Environmental services Existing Provincial Secondary City Large Urban Region with New National Clustered CitiesCapital Secondary City Secondary City Clusters New Secondary City Growth Pole Existing Resource Secondary City New Secondary City Border Growth Pole Existing Industrial Secondary City Existing Secondary City Expanded Growth Pole Mega City Existing Sub national Secondary City Expanded Growth Pole Existing Tourism and Port Secondary City Economic Trade Development Corridors Existing Provincial Boarder Secondary City Lateral Economic Development Corridors Rail/road Fast Transit System How can international development agencies and NGOs Support the Development and Management of Secondary Cities? Policy 1. Facilitate the development and improvements to regional systems of knowledge, economic reforms, and planning and development of logistics, inter-regional governance and logistics systems 2. Support National Policy Reforms for Integrating sub-national spatial development policy for Land-use, management, economic and human capital development) 3. Support Secondary Systems of Cities Local Economic, Social and Land Management Reforms Planning and Development 1. Planning and Management of Peri-urban, existing settlement, environmental improvements 2. Land Management and Administration, property taxation and Asset Mapping 3. Planning and Development of Strategic infrastructure Smart Systems 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Knowledge management, logistics, productivity improvement and logistics Systems Financial Management Capitalizing on public assets, property and land markets Collaborative governance land management systems Green Cities Inclusive and Engaging Cities Thank You For Your Attention Medellin, 8 April 2014