American National Security Syllabus

ZANVYL KREIGER SCHOOL OF ARTS AND SCIENCES JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY AMERICAN NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY 191.386 SPRING 2011 COURSE INFORMATION Class Days/Time: Classroom: Instructor: Email Address: Office: Office Hours: MWF, 11:00-11:50 am Hodson 316 Jeffrey Meiser jmeiser1@jhu.edu (backup: jwmeiser@gmail.com) 281 Mergenthaler Hall Monday and Wednesday 2-3pm COURSE DESCRIPTION The purpose of this course is to provide an overview of the manifold challenges and opportunities that confront the United States in the area of national security in our new century. It is hoped that through participation in the course students will gain not only an appreciation for the broad array of challenges that the US faces. REQUIRED TEXTS Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, Second Edition (New York: W. W. Norton, 2002). Steven David, Catastrophic Consequences: Civil Wars and American Interests (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008). OTHER READINGS Readings that are not in the required texts specified above are available on the Johns Hopkins ereserves web site or at the web addresses provided in the syllabus. The e-reserves web site is: http://reserves.library.jhu.edu.proxy1.library.jhu.edu/access/reserves/findit/articles/index.php. You will need your JHED login information and the course password: mei386. GETTING INFORMED AND STAYING INFORMED The Economist: http://www.economist.com/ The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/ The Christian Science Monitor: http://www.csmonitor.com/ The Washington Times: http://www.washingtontimes.com/ 1 The Council on Foreign Relations: http://www.cfr.org/ GlobalSecurity.org: http://www.globalsecurity.org/ Foreign Policy: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/ Foreign Affairs: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ REQUIREMENTS Attendance and Participation: Students are expected to attend class regularly and do the reading assigned for the topic. Reading assigned texts and class participation are essential. Quizzes: Two quizzes will be given during the course, the first on Feb. 21 and second on April 18. The dates will be announced ahead of time. The purpose is to ensure that students remain caught up on the weekly readings. The quizzes will test basic knowledge from the assigned readings. Midterm Exam: An in-class essay exam testing knowledge from the first half of class. Students will answer one of three essay questions. Final Exam: A take-home exam testing knowledge from the entire class, but will be weighted toward the second half of class. GRADE FORMULA Participation and Attendance: 10% Quiz 1: 10% Quiz 2: 10% Midterm Exam: 30% Final Exam: 40% CLASSROOM PROTOCOL All electronic devices including cell phones must be turned off and are not to be visible at any time during class unless specifically directed by the instructor. Notebook computers may be used in class for taking notes and specified in-class activities, not for instant messaging, email or other distractions. All email messages will be sent to you via your JHU email account, so you should be in the habit of checking that account every day or you should ensure that your JHU email account forwards messages to another account of your choice. In addition, as a student in this class, you are expected to: Take ownership and responsibility for the conduct of the class. 2 Always treat class members with respect. Be considerate and limit materials or actions that others might find distracting. Be prepared to contribute to group and class discussions in a courteous, substantive, and thoughtful manner. Bring necessary materials to every class. UNIVERSITY POLICIES This course adheres to all University policies described in the academic catalog. A few to pay close attention to are noted below. JHU ETHICS STATEMENT The strength of the university depends on academic and personal integrity. In this course, you must be honest and truthful. Ethical violations include cheating on exams, plagiarism, reuse of assignments, improper use of the Internet and electronic devices, unauthorized collaboration, alteration of graded assignments, forgery and falsification, lying, facilitating academic dishonesty, and unfair competition. Report any violations you witness to the instructor. DROPPING THE COURSE You are responsible for understanding the university‟s policies and procedures regarding withdrawing from courses. And you should be aware of the current deadlines and penalties for dropping classes. STUDENTS WITH DISABILITIES The Johns Hopkins University is committed to providing reasonable and appropriate accommodations to students with disabilities. Students with documented disabilities should contact the course instructor. COURSE SCHEDULE (Subject to change with reasonable warning) PART I: CONCEPTUALIZING AMERICAN NATIONAL SECURITY IN AN ERA OF UNIPOLARITY Week 1 (Jan. 31, Feb. 2, Feb. 4): Understanding Threats to U.S. National Interests [67 pgs] - Arnold Wolfers, “„National Security‟ as an Ambiguous Symbol,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 67, No. 4. (Dec., 1952): 481-502. [22] - Alan G. Stolberg, “Crafting National Interests in the 21st Century,” Chapter 1 in The U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues Volume II: National Security Policy and Strategy, 4th Edition, edited by J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, (2010): 3-14, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1005. [12] 3 - Paul Bracken, “Net Assessment: A Practical Guide,” Parameters (Spring 2006): 90-100. [11] - Bremmer, Ian, “Managing Risk in an Unstable World,” Harvard Business Review, (June 2005): 51-60. [8] - H. Richard Yarger, “The Strategic Appraisal: The Key to Effective Strategy,” Chapter 4 in The U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues Volume I: Theory of War and Strategy edited by J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, (2010): 53-66, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1004. [14] Week 2 (Feb. 7, 9, 11): Elements of National Power [111 pgs] - David Jablonsky, “National Power,” in The U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues Volume I: Theory of War and Strategy edited by J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr., Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, (2010): 123-139, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1004. [17] - Stephen Biddle, “Introduction,” and “The Modern System,” chapters 1 and 3 in Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle (Princeton UP, 2004): 1-9 and 2851. [33] - Nye, Joseph. “Soft Power,” in The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go It Alone (Oxford UP, 2002): 8-12. [5] - Dennis M. Murphy, “Strategic Communication: Wielding the Information Element of Power,” in The U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues Volume I: Theory of War and Strategy edited by J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr., Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, (2010): 153-165, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1004. [13] - Reed J. Fendrick, “Diplomacy as an Instrument of National Power,” in The U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues Volume I: Theory of War and Strategy edited by J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr., Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, (2010): 167-172, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1004. [6] - Clayton K.S. Chun, “Economics: A Key Element of National Power,” Chapter 15 in The U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues Volume I: Theory of War and Strategy edited by J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr., Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, (2010): 199-210, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1004. [12] - John F. Troxell, “Military Power and the Use of Force,” Chapter 17 in The U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues Volume I: Theory of War and Strategy edited by J. Boone Bartholomees, Jr., Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, (2010): 225-249, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1004. [25] - John Aclin, “Intelligence as a Tool of Strategy,” Chapter 19 in The U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues Volume I: Theory of War and Strategy edited by J. Boone 4 Bartholomees, Jr., Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, (2010): 263-277, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1004. [15] Week 3 (Feb. 14, 16, 18): Power in the 21st Century: Nuclear Weapons [117 pgs] -Jervis, Robert. "The Nuclear Revolution and the Common Defense." Political Science Quarterly 101, no. 5 (1986): 689-703. [16] - Nina Tannenwald, “The Nuclear Taboo,” International Organization, Vol. 53, No. 3 (Summer, 1999), pp. 433-468. [36] - T.V. Paul, “Taboo or tradition? The non-use of nuclear weapons in world politics,” Review of International Studies 36 (2010): 853–863. [11] - James Wood Forsyth Jr. B. Chance Saltzman, Colonel, USAF Gary Schaub Jr., “Remembrance of Things Past: The Enduring Value of Nuclear Weapons,” Strategic Studies Quarterly (Spring 2010): 74-89. [16] - Keir A. Leiber and Darryl G. Press, “The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of U.S. Primacy,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 4 (Spring 2006): 7–44 [38] Week 4 (Feb. 21, 23, 25): Power in the 21st Century: Asymmetric Warfare [123 pgs] - Ivan Arreguín-Toft “How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict,” International Security, Vol. 26, No. 1 (Summer 2001): 93–128. [36] - “Paradoxes of Counterinsurgency Operations,” The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual (University of Chicago Press): 47-51. [5] - Lorenzo Zambernardi, "Counterinsurgency's impossible trilemma." The Washington Quarterly Vol. 33, no. 3 (2010): 21-34. [14] - Creveld, Martin Van, “The New World Disorder: 1991 to the Present,” chapter 6 in The Changing Face of War. (Presidio Press, 2006): 213-259 . [47] - Amitai Etzioni, “Whose COIN?” Joint Forces Quarterly Issue 60 (January 2011): 19-25, 128 http://www.ndu.edu/press/whose-COIN.html. [8] - Gil Merom, How Democracies Lose Small Wars: State, Society, and the Failures of France in Algeria, Israel in Lebanon, and the United States in Vietnam (Cambridge UP, 2003): 14-26. [13] Week 5 (Feb. 28, March 2, March 4): America Today – The Rise and Fall of the Unipolar Moment? [141 pgs] - Christopher Layne, “The Unipolar Illusion: Why New Great Powers Will Rise,” International Security, 17:4 (1993), pp. 5-51. [47] - Robert A. Pape, “Soft Balancing Against the United States,” International Security 30:1 (2005), pp. 7-45. [39] - G. John Ikenberry, “America‟s „Security Trap,‟” in US Foreign Policy edited by Michael Cox and Doug Stokes (Oxford UP, 2008): 420-432. [13 pgs] 5 - Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth, “American Primacy in Perspective,” Foreign Affairs, 81, 4 (Jul/Aug 2002): 20-33. [13 pgs] - Robert J. Lieber, “Persistent Primacy and the Future of the American Era,” International Politics Vol. 46, 2/3, (2009): 119-139. [21] - Ariel Ilan Roth, Leadership in International Relations: The Balance of Power and the Origins of World War II (Palgrave Macmillan 2010): 18-21, 157-160. [8] Week 6 (March 7, 9, 11): The Liberal Outlook – The Democratic Peace Hypothesis [96 pgs] - Bruce Russett and John Oneal, Triangulating Peace (New York: WW Norton, 2001), Chapters 3 and 4. [75] -Fareed Zakaria, “The Rise of Illiberal Democracy,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 1997 [21] *March 14 Midterm Exam* PART II: UNDERSTANDING THREATS TO AMERICAN NATIONAL SECURITY Week 7 (March 16, 18): Threats I: Nuclear Proliferation [113 pgs] - Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, Second Edition (New York: W. W. Norton, 2002): 3-88. [86] -Owen Cote, “A Primer on Fissile Materials and Nuclear Weapon Design” in Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy edited by Graham Allison et. al. (MIT Press, 1996): 203-229. [27] Week 8 (March 21-27): Spring Break Week 9 (March 28, 30, April 1): Threats II: Terrorism [114 pgs] -Fareed Zakaria, “Why Do they Hate Us?” Newsweek October 15, 2001. [11] -Matthew J. Morgan, “The Origins of the New Terrorism,” Parameters (Spring 2004): http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/Articles/04spring/morgan.pdf. [15] -Jakob Grygiel, “The Power of Statelessness,” Policy Review (April and May 2009): http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/41708942.html. [19] -David Kilcullen, “Countering the Global Insurgency,” Journal of Strategic Studies 28, 4, (August 2005): 597-617. [21] -Robert Pape, “The Strategic Logic of Terrorism,” The American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 3 (Aug., 2003), pp. 343-361. [19] - S. Paul Kapur, “Deterring Nuclear Terrorists,” Chapter 5 in Complex Deterrence edited by T.V. Paul et al., (University of Chicago Press, 2009): 109-130. [22] Available in ebook format: http://www.JHU.eblib.com/EBLWeb/patron?target=patron&extendedid=P_471794_0&. 6 - John Mueller, “Terrorphobia: Our False Sense of Insecurity,” The American Interest 3, 5 (May/June 2008): http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=418. [7 pgs] Week 10 (April 4, 6, 8): Threats IIIa: State-Centered Threats (Rogue States) [123 pgs] - Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, “Who „Won‟ Libya? The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy,” International Security, Vol. 30, no. 3 (Winter 2005/06): 47–86. [40] - Janice Gross Stein, “Rational Deterrence against „Irrational‟ Adversaries?” Chapter 3 in Complex Deterrence edited by T.V. Paul et al., (University of Chicago Press, 2009): 58-82. [25] Available in ebook format: http://www.JHU.eblib.com/EBLWeb/patron?target=patron&extendedid=P_471794_0&. - Shahram Chubin, Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions (2006), introduction and chapter 1, pages 1-23. [23] - Andrei Lankov, Changing North Korea, Foreign Affairs (November/ December 2009) [11] - Robert D. Kaplan, “When North Korea Falls,” Atlantic Monthly Magazine (October 2006): http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/5228/. [16] - Selth, Andrew, “Myanmar's Nuclear Ambitions,” Survival, 52, 5, (2010): 5-12. [8] Week 11 (April 11, 13, 15): Threats IIIb: State-Centered Threats (Rising Powers) [116 pgs] - Schweller, Randall L., "Managing the Rise of Great Powers: History and Theory." In Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power, edited by Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, 1-31. London: Routledge, 1999. [31] - Azar Gat, “The Return of Authoritarian Great Powers,” Foreign Affairs 86, 4 (July/August 2007): 59-69. [11] - Robert Kagan, “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Policy Review (Aug. & Sept. 2007): http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html. [17] - G. John Ikenberry, “The Rise of China and the Future of the West: Can the Liberal System Survive?,” Foreign Affairs (January/February 2008). [8] -Daniel Deudney and G. John Ikenberry, “The Myth of the Autocratic Revival,” Foreign Affairs (Jan./Feb. 2009): 77-93 [17] - Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel, “How Development Leads to Democracy,” Foreign Affairs 88, 2 (March/April 2009): 33-48. [16 pgs] - John J. Mearsheimer, “The Gathering Storm: China‟s Challenge to US Power in Asia,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 3, 2010, 381–396. [16] Week 12 (April 18, 20, 22): Threats IV – The Danger from Civil War [~113 pgs] -Steven David, Catastrophic Consequences: Civil Wars and American Interests (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008), chapters 1, 5, 6, and either 2 OR 3. [~113] Week 13 (April 25, 27, 29): Threats V – Threats to Energy and Environmental Security [122] 7 -Alan Dupont, “The Strategic Implications of Climate Change,” Survival 50:3 (2008), pp. 29-54. [26] - Busby, Joshua W., “Who Cares about the Weather?: Climate Change and U.S. National Security,” Security Studies 17, 3 (468-504). [37 pgs] - Gal Luft and Anne Korin, “Realism and Idealism in the Energy Security Debate,” chapter 23 in Energy Security Challenges in the 21st Century, ed. Gal Luft and Anne Korin (Santa Barbara: Praeger Security International, 2009): 335-350. [26] - Eugene Gholz and Daryl G. Press, “Protecting „The Prize‟: Oil and the U.S. National Interest,” Security Studies Vol. 19, No. 3 (2010): 453-485. [33] Week 14 (May 2, 4, 6): Threats VI – Threats to Economic Hegemony [115 pgs] - Jonathan Kirshner, “Dollar Primacy and American Power: What‟s at Stake?” Review of International Political Economy 15:3 (2008), pp. 418-438. [21] - Aaron L. Friedberg. “Implications of the Financial Crisis for the US-China Rivalry.” Survival 52, no. 4 (2010): 31-54 [24] - Daniel W. Drezner. "Bad Debts: Assessing China's Financial Influence in Great Power Politics." International Security 34, no. 2 (Fall 2009): 7-45. [39] - Benjamin J. Cohen, “Sovereign Wealth Funds and National Security: The Great Tradeoff,” International Affairs 85: 4 (2009): 713–731. [19 pgs] - Roger C. Altman and Richard N. Haass “American Profligacy and American Power: The Consequences of Fiscal Irresponsibility,” Foreign Affairs Vol. 89, No. 6 (November/December 2010). [14] *Final Exam Due May 11* 8