Illicit Small Arms in the Paciic: Cause for Concern? Dr Stephanie Koorey, RJ Networking, July 2014 > W W W.ACMC.GOV.AU This research project is being undertaken by RJ Networking. The chief researcher is Dr Stephanie Koorey, with advice being provided by Honorary Associate Professor Stefan Markowksi, both associated with the University of New South Wales, Canberra, who is also providing in-kind support. In addition to progress reports and a literature review, the major outcomes of the project will be four reports that include policy recommendations. The project relates to the Australian Civil-Military Centre’s research themes 1 and 2 as proposed by its research program’s Call for Concept Notes in 2013. These research themes are: rebuilding societies post-conflict—the role of civil-military-police actors in assessing appropriate models to reintroduce security post-conflict; and strengthening security, protection of civilians, and the rule of law in conflict and post-conflict environments through civil-militarypolice coordination. This project will undertake research into small arms and light weapons (SALW) in the Pacific, with a particular focus on illicit weapons. It will focus on Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Fiji. It will identify the main illicit weapons types, the likely sources of these weapons, and in particular it will focus on what is driving demand for illicit small arms and light weapons in the Pacific at this point in time. The term ‘illicit’ is used in preference to the term ‘illegal’ in this project, because the latter varies depending on the national laws of the country the weapon is in, and who is using it. The term ‘loose’ weapons is also used, as it refers to weapons not under state control. Small arms and light weapons are defined, according to the Small Arms Survey, as being: Small arms: revolvers and self-loading pistols, rifles and carbines, assault rifles, sub-machine guns and light machine guns. Light weapons: heavy machine guns, hand-held under-barrel and mounted grenade launchers, portable anti-aircraft guns, portable anti-tank guns, recoilless rifles, portable launchers of anti-tank missile and rocket systems; portable launchers of anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS); and mortars of calibres of less than 100mm. It also includes single-rail-launched rockets and 120mm mortars transported and operated as intended by a light vehicle.1 1 1 See the Small Arms Survey, ‘Definitions of Small Arms and Light Weapons’, available at: http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/weaponsand-markets/definitions.html, accessed 14 May 2014. ACMC Dr Stephanie Koorey: Illicit Small Arms in the Pacific: Cause for Concern? The term ‘weapons’ will refer to generic small arms and light weapons, and ‘firearms’ may also be used in referring to specific small arms. This project will restrict itself to the weapons as defined above, noting that there are other definitions regarding SALW in national, regional and specialist control measures. The project will also not include other weapons types such as explosives or bladed weapons. Illicit SALW are considered to be problematic in that they can cause insecurity and instability for populations, governments and regions whether used in civil disorder, crime or conflict. They are an across the board civil-militarypolicing concern. While it is unlikely there will be large numbers of illicit SALW in the Pacific at this time, or loose larger systems such as MANPADS, even small numbers of illicit SALW can be destabilising. Small arms and light weapons are also relatively easy to transfer, use and hide, making their proliferation, detection and effective control a considerable challenge. This project will be based around five themes: > the dynamics of illicit small arms movements—where they are going to and where they are coming from > weapons numbers—noting that even small numbers of small arms can be destabilising and that numbers are estimates, not definitive > weapons types—to ascertain likely sources, intent of use and firepower > the main drivers of demand—increased criminality, increased civil unrest, increased supply, decreased prices, retention for pre-existing reasons, lack of trust, expectation of increased violence, etc > what might be the most effective ways of returning loose and illicit weapons to state control. Effective small arms control may be seen as preventing conflict from breaking out in the first instance, therefore this project will also address how the military-police-civil sector, including international organisations and non-government organisations, could more effectively prepare for and respond to small arms-related security problems. Effective small arms control is central to rebuilding societies and strengthening security post-conflict. The drivers behind small arms accumulation for self-protection, or for crime, takes the demand for the weapons into more of a law and order dimension, but it also links to issues of government responsibility and trust. Post-conflict, small arms control is rarely successful if it only looks at the disarmament of combatants. While it is also linked to trust both within society and towards the government, effective small arms control may be more likely if it is conducted through what this project proposes as a three-pillar approach of supply reduction, disarmament and demand reduction. This project would explore each of these three pillars, with particular focus on the demand reduction approach, in appreciating how and why small arms and light weapons are sought after, obtained and retained by non-state combatants and armed civilians. This approach looks beyond supply and demand, and instead sees control as a means of stopping weapons getting into undesired hands, disarmament as a means of removing weapons from undesired hands, and a nuanced appreciation of demand for weapons by non-state combatants and armed civilians. Most control and disarmament approaches seek to stop, or remove, weapons without fully appreciating the demand factors. It can be argued that demand drives the small arms proliferation dynamic, not supply, although this can also depend on the types of weapons sought, and those weapons’ availability. Further, by approaching demand as a two-fold dynamic of both tangible and intangible factors, it becomes apparent that while tangible factors are important, they are not enough in understanding why certain people retain weapons. While tangible factors are the most apparent—former non-state combatants, for example, are often unwilling to disarm to international or national agencies because they want to keep them for hunting, or as a type of ‘insurance’ against a new government they do not trust—intangible factors are possibly just as important. Intangible factors for non-state combatants include a strong psychological attachment to a firearm that is perceived by the combatant as being a comrade, as a central component of what they perceive to be a just or legitimate struggle, the means by which they achieved glory, and a tool that saved 2 ACMC Dr Stephanie Koorey: Illicit Small Arms in the Pacific: Cause for Concern? their life. They can be seen as the icons of a revolution, and to remove these weapons through offers of buy-backs (which often create micro-markets and therefore often do not work) or destruction ceremonies does little to appease the combatants’ sense of liberation and their contribution to what they have sought to create—usually the aim of a better, new society. The research project will commence with a review of the literature. There is now a substantial literature on small arms proliferation and control, and yet only a few earlier papers have considered small arms in the Pacific region. The major papers in the public arena have been written by David Capie (New Zealand) and Philip Alpers (Australia-based, published by the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey). The Small Arms Survey has also evaluated the Weapons Fee Village initiative in the Solomon Islands. However, there does not appear to be very much material in the past eight to ten years. This project will also focus on the small arms situation in the Pacific from an Australian point of view, and it will focus particularly on the demand for illicit weapons as a key component of effective, long-term control. While acknowledged as important, demand remains an underdeveloped component in both the literature and policy. In addition, there have been considerable developments in terms of political change in the region, as well as in national, regional and global small arms control in the past decade. Therefore it is timely to re-examine the situation on the ground, and to consider a more rounded dynamic of small arms proliferation and control as suggested in the approach taken by this project. Field research will be conducted in three main focus countries: Papua New Guinea (excluding Bougainville), the Solomon Islands and Fiji. Human Research Ethics Approval is being sought. These three countries were chosen as they appear to be examples of three different small arms dynamics: criminality, post-conflict and post-coup. In Papua New Guinea, most illicit SALW appear to be in the rural Southern Highlands and used in crimes in Port Moresby. It is therefore a useful example of a situation where SALW are mostly used in violent crime, particularly by raskol gangs, and are therefore mostly a law and order problem. However, concerns about emerging transnational crime groups in the Pacific, including Chinese triads, is cause for concern in terms of likely increased criminal activity and the possible introduction of Chinese small arms. The Solomon Islands, by comparison, has just experienced a decade of the Australian-led intervention, the Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands, commonly known as RAMSI, which arrived in the country in 2003. The mission aimed to stabilise the country after four years of increased violence and instability brought about by rival armed groups; in particular, the Malaitan Eagle Force and the Isatabu Freedom Movement brought the country to the brink of collapse. Part of RAMSI’s remit was to remove and recover weapons used by the armed groups. While many of these arms were sourced from inside the country, including ‘craft-produced’ or ‘home-made’ weapons, there have been repeated reports of trafficking in small arms into the Solomon Islands, including in recent years. Since a successful military coup in Fiji in 2006, the latest of several, the country is preparing for free and fair elections in September 2014. Government-sourced small arms were central in the 2000 coup, and Fiji was the destination of the largest known intercepted arms shipment in the region in 1998. Australia has been active in assisting with stockpile security, and while there do not appear to be significant numbers of loose or illicit small arms in Fiji, in this election year it is worthwhile assessing if there are drivers of demand in or sources of supply to Fiji. Rebuilding societies through effective small arms management requires significant civil-military-police coordination, relating directly to the rule of law and increased security for civilians, former combatants and governments. In this era of expanded concern over civil-military matters, whole-of-government responses to security concerns, and what can be seen as perhaps Australia’s own ‘rebalance’ to the Pacific after the drawdown from Afghanistan concludes, this project is timely. Lessons learned from this research could also be applicable elsewhere. 3 ACMC Dr Stephanie Koorey: Illicit Small Arms in the Pacific: Cause for Concern?