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Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier’s archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright Author's personal copy environmental science & policy 27 (2013) 184–194 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsci Assessing the future of small-scale fishery systems in coastal Vietnam and the implications for policy Derek Armitage a,*, Melissa Marschke b,1 a b Environment and Resource Studies, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G1 School of International Development and Global Studies, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1N 6N5 article info abstract Article history: Our aim in this paper is to examine the future for small-scale fishers and fish producers in Received 23 May 2012 the rapidly changing Tam Giang Lagoon in central Vietnam. The analysis shows: (1) the Received in revised form multi-dimensional and linked social, ecological and economic challenges confronting 8 December 2012 lagoon resource users and government officials, including the possibility that important Accepted 9 December 2012 features of the ecological system have been significantly altered; and (2) the spatial and Published on line 4 February 2013 temporal variation in the lived experience and conditions facing lagoon resource users even Keywords: management interventions need to better reflect social and ecological variability, incorpo- Aquaculture rate local perspectives about the future of small-scale fishing and small producer aquacul- in the context of one relatively-bounded physical system. In this context, policy and Co-management ture, and acknowledge how individuals simultaneously produce, resist and adapt to change. Environmental change Key policy responses include the adoption of an integrated fishery (fishing and aquaculture) Fisheries and coastal systems perspective, clarifying security of access rights to aquatic resources, Institutions and building institutional conditions for greater collaboration and learning among resource Social-ecological systems users and decision makers. # 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Southeast Asia 1. Introduction Small-scale fishery systems are influenced by multiple factors, including fisheries (mis)management and poor enforcement (Pitcher and Lam, 2010; Axelrod, 2011), economic development policies (Mansfield, 2011), and climate variability and change (Badjeck et al., 2010). Market uncertainty and stock depletion further create difficult social and ecological conditions for small-scale fishers (Berkes et al., 2006; Worm et al., 2006). Understanding the implications of such drivers of change for small-scale fishers and the environments upon which they depend is a crucial environmental, economic and social policy challenge (Chuenpagdee, 2011). Small-scale fish capture and production is a vital source of livelihoods and food security for millions of people in the Southeast Asia, as well as a way of life (Chuenpagdee, 2011). In many small-scale capture fisheries pressure on fish stocks and coastal aquatic resources has increased while overall incomes and employment has declined, further marginalizing often impoverished households (Allison et al., 2011). Fish farming has simultaneously emerged as the world’s fastest growing sector of food production (Bostock et al., 2010), particularly in countries such as China, Thailand and Vietnam, and much of this growth is taking place at the small producer level (Belton and Little, 2011). Here too the experience of small producer fish farmers is proving increasingly untenable given the * Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 519 888 4567x35795. E-mail addresses: derek.armitage@uwaterloo.ca (D. Armitage), melissa.marschke@uottawa.ca (M. Marschke). 1 Tel.: +1 613 562 5800x4866. 1462-9011/$ – see front matter # 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.12.015 Author's personal copy environmental science & policy 27 (2013) 184–194 boom-bust cycle of production, emergence of aquatic disease, and dynamic consumer preferences (Bush et al., 2009). By small-scale fishers, we are referring to both small-scale capture fishers and small producer fish farmers (aquaculture) since households may practice both capture fishing and fish farming. In the Tam Giang Lagoon, and throughout Asia, people often move between these production systems depending on fish stocks, availability of fishing gear, opportunities for fish farming and market conditions (Tuyen et al., 2010; Nayak and Berkes, 2011). Fishing and aquaculture systems are linked in terms of fish products being used within aquaculture feeds, the role of aquaculture stocks in supporting and enhancing capture fisheries, and through ecosystem management approaches connecting aquaculture and fisheries in single spatial units (such as lakes, lagoons, flood plains or mangrove estuaries) (Bostock et al., 2010). Small-scale fish producers are also most directly connected to the resources and ecosystems upon which they depend and their knowledge and understanding of those systems is an important dimension of sustainability (Berkes, 2012). This complex interplay is seldom captured in conventional interpretations of smallscale fishery systems (cf., Berkes et al., 2001), or in the small producer aquaculture literature which tends to draw on an economic analysis to understand risk or to focus on contamination issues (cf., Bui et al., 2012). This lack of integrated support to small-scale fish producers may have long-term negative consequences for achieving sub-regional and national social and economic development priorities (Charles, 2011a,b; Chuenpagdee, 2011). Our aim in this paper is to examine the complexity found within one social-ecological system and to use this case to consider the future of small-scale fish producers. We focus on the changes taking place in the 22,000 ha Tam Giang-Cau Hai lagoon (herein Tam Giang lagoon) in central Vietnam, but the insights are relevant to Vietnam and Southeast Asia more generally. Specifically, we examine: (a) the multi-dimensional challenges confronting lagoon resource users and government officials in supporting small-scale fish producers; and (b) the spatial and temporal variation in the lived experience and in the ecological conditions facing lagoon resource users even in the context of one relatively-bounded biophysical system. Understanding change and feedbacks between social and ecological processes is important for policy, as is the recognition that these processes may operate at different scales and simultaneously produce alternative pathways toward (or away) from sustainability (Folke et al., 2010). In small-scale fishery systems, change may be radical or abrupt with uncertain (and often undesirable) consequences for ecosystem services and human well-being. Current evidence points to the possibility that key attributes of the lagoon system (ecological and social) are under significant pressure. In this context, it is crucial to understand how individuals in the Tam Giang lagoon are simultaneously producing, adapting to, and in some cases, resisting further social-ecological change. 2. Fishing and aquaculture in Vietnam The pace of change along Vietnam’s coasts, deltas and lagoons is intense, and has led to an enclosure of common spaces for 185 fishing. The expansion of aquaculture ponds in particular has brought a series of new pressures into coastal areas including higher competition for land and the threat of marginalizing rural communities from access to productive land and water resources (Bush et al., 2009). Fish farmers and capture fishers are sometimes drawing on the same resources, particularly since fish farmers have historically been dependent on wild caught fish to use as feed for their aquaculture farms, with some small producers continuing to depend on wild feed (Loc et al., 2010). The natural resource base, particularly the inshore fishery, has been severely over-fished (for many reasons, not just the use of wild feed in aquaculture), and many high value fish resources having significantly declined (Pomeroy et al., 2009; FAO, 2010). Vietnam’s fisheries sector contributes around four percent of GDP and is viewed as a source of economic growth, poverty alleviation and food security (FAO, 2010). The Vietnamese diet, for example, relies on fish as a major source of protein, accounting for 40 percent of average intake (FAO, 2010). In 2010 total fisheries production (5,127,000 Mt) was valued at over seven billion dollars (US), making it the third most important Vietnamese export after crude oil and textile-garments (GSO, 2011). Fishing is estimated to employ nearly 700,000 people directly (GSO, 2011), although some estimates suggest that as many as four million people in Vietnam are employed in this sector. Moreover, aquaculture now covers nearly half of the total water surface area that could be used for fishing activities, and accounts for 53% of all Vietnamese fisheries production (GSO, 2011). Even with the export of high value fish such as the Pangasius catfish or shrimp (P. monodon), there are many low value species that are caught or cultivated for domestic and regional consumption (Belton and Little, 2011). For example, the percentage of boats in Vietnam under 50 horsepower is significant at 77%, and small-scale fish producers – both fishers and fish farmers – form an important part of the overall fisheries sector (FAO, 2010). Those relying on small boats generally catch low value fish species, and it appears that differentiation and marginalization may occur in some parts of the coast (cf., Bush et al., 2009; Edwards, 2010). Vietnamese aquaculture has mainly been small-scale in nature (ponds less than 1 ha, using limited infrastructure, drawing on wild feed etc.), and this type of aquaculture continues to be practiced throughout Vietnam (Edwards, 2010), in some cases with farmers expanding the number of ponds they own. However, there also appears to be a trend toward consolidation, particularly in high-value shrimp or catfish fisheries in the Mekong Delta area (southern Vietnam). For example, Bush et al. (2009) show that farm size of aquaculture ponds in An Giang province increased in size between 2004 and 2008: in 2004 69% of farms were less than 0.1 ha whereas in 2008, 34% of farms were less than 0.1 ha. Edwards (2010) discovered similar trends in another part of the Mekong Delta. Meanwhile, in 2011 the ministry of agriculture and rural development launched Vietnam’s fisheries development strategy through 2020 along with the scheme on development of aquaculture through 2020. The Vietnamese fisheries development strategy (VFDS) projects that between 65 and 70 percent of total fisheries production will be from aquaculture (VFDS, 2010) at the end of this timeframe. Moreover, the direction promoted by these policy documents Author's personal copy 186 environmental science & policy 27 (2013) 184–194 is to continue commercialization of fisheries, modernize technologies, and expand exports. It is also envisioned that 80% of intensive and semi-intensive fish farms will meet national certification standards (VietGAP) by 2020. There is mention of communities and cooperatives being engaged in local management arrangements. 3. Research methods There appears to be a general government push toward increasing production efficiencies and intensification even though there remains a significant number of fishers engaged at a small producer level as evidenced by both boat and pond size. To understand what changes in the fisheries sector may mean for coastal communities practicing fishing or fish farming at the small producer level, a mixed methods approach (Table 1) was used. The Tam Giang Lagoon (Fig. 1) was chosen based on: (a) the rapid techno-ecological changes observed in the lagoon since the 1990s, (b) the interplay of fishing and aquaculture in the area; and (c) the ability to build on existing research and to focus specifically on assessing the impacts of rapid changes confronting small-scale fish producers in one context. A household livelihood survey of 87 randomly-selected small-scale fish producers was conducted in late 2009 with respondents in three different sites: Huong Phong in the north (n = 33), Phu My in the center (n = 20), and Vinh Giang in the south (n = 34) of the lagoon. These sites were chosen to reflect the ecological and socio-economic complexity across the Tam Giang lagoon system i.e., households relying on a mix of small scale production systems including earth pond aquaculture, net enclosure, fish corals, gill nets and bottom net stake traps in three areas of the lagoon. Follow-up verification and data checking occurred in 2010 and 2011. The data set provides finegrained insight into the livelihoods and perceptions of environmental change observed by survey respondents. Respondents were asked to indicate how capture fishing and aquaculture production has changed through time, and were also queried about change in ecological conditions through time with reference to fish size, composition and harvest levels. We are cautious about extending the results beyond the three study sites, and in terms of the associations we can make about fisher activities and changes in lagoon resources. This data set is complemented by semi-structured key informant interviews with a variety of small-scale fish producers, focus groups with key stakeholders using different gear types (ponds, nets, traps, gill nets), and several focus groups with members of local fishing associations, commune Table 1 – Summary of research methods. Research methods Livelihood survey (n = 87) Key informant interviews (n = 42) Focus groups (n = 12) Academic, government statistics and gray literature Timeframe 2009 2008–2011 2006–2012 2010–2012 and district officials. Both focus group discussions and semistructured interviews took anywhere between one to two and a half hours, with information being hand written and then transcribed into the computer for further analysis. Discussions focused on changes in local conditions (social, ecological), assessing property rights and institutional changes, and documenting people’s perspectives about the future of smallscale fish production in the lagoon. The research builds on findings and data from a series of investigations in the case area (cf., Hong et al., 2000; Phap, 2000; Tuyen, 2006; Boonstra and Nguyen, 2010; Tuyen et al., 2010; Armitage et al., 2011; Huong and Berkes, 2011), which enables us to capture change over time (since one study could not capture the extent of the change). We also draw on Vietnamese government statistics and other gray literature to supplement our data set. 4. Results 4.1. Socio-economic change Of the nearly 52,000 households living in and around the 22,000 ha Tam Giang Lagoon, over 7000 households rely directly on the lagoon fisheries resources with many of the remaining households relying indirectly on fisheries resources (Hue Provincial Statistics 2010). Historically 42 inshore and offshore aquatic species in the lagoon have been harvested (Hong et al., 2000). Small-gear capture fisheries and various forms of brackish water aquaculture are practiced throughout the lagoon. Capture fishing is a small-scale, multi-species, multi-gear activity drawing on both mobile and fixed (or stationary) fishing gear. Fish farming currently is a mix of small producer intensive and semi-intensive shrimp or mixed species production. Gear choice relates to species, life-cycle, movements, behavior and abundance, along with a household’s socio-economic position (Boonstra and Nhung, 2011). Both capture fishing and fish farming production has been increasing since the 1990s (cf., Hue Provincial Statistics, 2010), although general production figures do not take into account species type, size or diversity. Aquaculture is a relatively new form of production in the lagoon – shrimp was the first form of aquaculture cultured in the lagoon, introduced by government scientists in the 1980s and then becoming more widely adopted in the 1990s (Phap, 2000). Until the 1990s fishers practiced either stationary (stakes, cages, corrals) and/or mobile gear fishing (setting nets or traps) throughout the lagoon. Mobile gear and fixed gear fishers were, however, affected by the wider adoption of shrimp aquaculture. Aquaculture activities (pens, net enclosures and earth ponds) are now found throughout the lagoon, with much of the lagoon space having been ‘claimed’ by individual households for fish farming in the absence of clear regulations (Tuyen et al., 2010). Small producer fish farming activities have involved intensive tiger shrimp culture (P. monodon) (particularly in the 1990s), occasional intensive white shrimp culture (Litopenaeus vannamei) in the 2000s, and semiintensive tiger shrimp mixed with a combination of mud crabs and the grow-out of freshwater carp and other fish species since the mid 2000s. While fishing has always been practiced Author's personal copy environmental science & policy 27 (2013) 184–194 187 Fig. 1 – Study area. in the lagoon, in the past twenty years the lagoon has become a densely exploited ecosystem shared by mobile fishers, fixed gear fishers and fish farmers (cf., Boonstra and Nhung, 2011) many of whom practice more than one production strategy. The spatial variation of livelihood activities found in the lagoon is linked to ecological variability, particularly in terms of lagoon depth, water flow and salinity levels. In the northcentral part of the lagoon (Huong Phong), households engage in a mix of production strategies including fish corrals (this is an example of a fixed gear, whereby bamboo fences are set up to guide fish into traps), gill nets and bottom steel frame traps (a long trap that is laid out across the lagoon bottom). In the center of the lagoon (Phu My), the main income generation activity is net enclosure (70%), a form of semi-intensive net aquaculture between 0.5 and 1 ha in size that is located a short distance offshore. In contrast, the main income generation activity in the southern part of the lagoon (Vinh Giang) involves fish corrals (44%). With time people have become dependent on a mix of fishing and non-fishing activities, which may be seen as a coping strategy given perceived stock declines (see Section 4.2), as a diversification strategy linked to a broader search for a variety of income-related activities, or as taking up new opportunities that have arisen elsewhere. For example, in 2009 fishers felt that a mix of fishing and fish farming were important for their future, with fish corals (20%) being seen as the most important activity, followed by earth pond aquaculture (15%) and net enclosure (14%). However, people also talked about the importance of rice culture in the future (16%), followed by being a businessperson (5%), doing animal husbandry (3%), being a government worker (3%) and being a laborer (2%). Such diversification is in sharp contrast to the shrimp booms of the 1990s, when households believed that if they could get into shrimp farming, it was worth specializing in such an activity. As one local key informant stated (May 2011), ‘‘My first crop was very successful, and I was so happy. What I did not realize was that for every successful crop, many more would fail’’. Fish farmers no longer see extensive or semi-intensive shrimp farming as a suitable strategy, and often do not have the capital to get into intensive shrimp farming. Most households (80%) that entered into intensive shrimp farming in the late 1990s believed they were making a net profit on these activities (Nguyen, 2010). However, by 2007 far fewer households (37%) felt that they were making a profit from shrimp farming. There are many reasons for this: the increase in households that entered into shrimp farming (in 1998 there were 1802 households compared with 6140 households in 2007), poorly managed pond effluent, and viral diseases (Nguyen, 2010). These data show the initial scramble in the 1990s to access ponds or convert fixed fishing gear into net enclosures for shrimp farming (see also Tuyen, 2006). The importance of shrimp culture has shifted with time. For example, in 2005 the fisheries sector contributed to just over 4% of GDP whereas by 2009 it contributed to just over 2% of GDP (Hue Provincial Statistics, 2010). The decline in shrimp aquaculture production was so significant that it is reflected in provincial economic activity statistics. While fishers continue to earn a livelihood from fishing activities, the value of the production has decreased with time. Author's personal copy 188 environmental science & policy 27 (2013) 184–194 Table 2 – Household debt and aquaculture production. Respondent Mobile gear ‘lu’a Pond size (ha) Year began fish farming Debt from fish farming Key insights After 1 successful shrimp crop, next crops failed. In 2005 tried Siganus (rabbit fish) but this also failed. In 2006 started mixed species fish farming. Between 2001 and 2006 continued to try shrimp production with multiple crop failures. Switched to mixed fish farming in 2007. Switched to a mixed production model in 2008 after a series of failures (made a profit 3 times within one decade). After several crop failures, switched to a mixed production model. Aquaculture was successful until 2002. Switched to mixed production model in 2006. Before 2009 did mobile gear fishing. Risk of mixed species production is less than with intensive shrimp culture. A 30 0.5 2001 70 million VND B 30 1 1999 150,000 VND C 55 1 1995 50 million VND D 40 0.75 2001 2 million VND E 20 0.5 1999 150 million VND F 15 Rents 0.5 2009 30 million VND Source: Focus group discussion, May 23, 2011, Quan An village a A bottom steel frame trap; 20,000 Vietnamese Dong (VND): approximately $US 1.0 This may be linked to a general decrease in surface area available for capture fishing (cf., Boonstra and Nhung, 2011). At the same time, households who were initially willing to take a risk on intensive shrimp farming found the risk to benefit calculus increasingly unattractive as debt levels accumulated with multiple crop failures (Table 2). Mixed species aquaculture, for this reason, has emerged as one alternative in the lagoon although few will earn significant incomes from this type of production. While the data in Table 2 is narrowly focused on one site, it is by no means an anomaly in the lagoon, and it serves to highlight the degree to which debt frames the material reality of small-scale fish producers. Debt is a significant challenge for many small-scale fish producers. Nearly 90% of survey respondents were worried about their excessive debt loads, and therefore, the future of their livelihoods in the context of rapidly deteriorating ecological conditions. At the same time, there were mixed opinions about living conditions in 2009 compared to a decade earlier. While 50% of respondents thought that life was better, 42% felt that life was worse off. This is in part linked to economic change that has brought opportunities for some (access to capital, loans, income levels), but also changes to material conditions (housing, land ownership, household labor) and new environmental challenges (reduction of resources, environmental change, disease). A clear understanding of the perception of respondents about their future is derived from a proxy indicator – aspirations for their children. Among the respondents, over 90% preferred that their children participate in some other livelihood activity besides fishing – whether capture fishing or fish farming. While perceptions about the future may be closely related to the ecological changes experienced in the lagoon over the past decade or so, there are also substantial pull factors for young people to go work and live in cities too. 4.2. Ecological change and uncertainty Fig. 2 provides an aggregate perspective of the ecological changes taking place in the three study sites over a 10-year period based on perceptions of those practicing some form of capture fishing. Data are based on historical recall and individual memory and caution in their interpretation is thus required. Nonetheless, in the absence of adequate biological data in the lagoon, local knowledge and perceptions of change provide useful insights. Lagoon resource users identify a consistent decline in fish size, diversity and total catch per individual over the past decade or more. Harvest data for aquaculture production show a similar trend, although it is less pronounced. Declines in fish size, diversity and total catch per individual is indicative of sustained, intensive pressure on aquatic resources and increased competition for limited lagoon space – a conclusion that is consistent with the socio-economic and lagoon use trends outlined above. Lack of water exchange, because of general lagoon enclosure for forms of fish farming, are often cited, as is the introduction of highly efficient mobile fishing gear (i.e., the bottom steel frame trap) in the mid-2000s. Other indicators are consistent with observed changes in stock size, diversity and catch. For instance, lagoon resource users note that the frequency and scope of disease outbreak has increased with the intensification of aquaculture and subsequent decline in water quality. Some data on pH, total coliform, oxygen demand (e.g., biological, chemical) are available (Nguyen, 2010), but it is in aggregate form and does not adequately reflect the complex and spatially differentiated hydrological and physical dynamics of the lagoon. Ecological change and uncertainty across this 70 km lagoon is spatially differentiated. In the north-central area of the lagoon (using the 1999 reference point), 48% of respondents (n = 33) observed a significant decrease in fish size. In contrast, Author's personal copy environmental science & policy 27 (2013) 184–194 189 Fig. 2 – Change in fish size, diversity and total catch from 1999 to 2009. 44% of respondents in the central study site (n = 20) reported no change in fish size, with 55% indicating some degree of decrease. It was in the southern part of the lagoon where 91% of respondents (n = 34) indicated that fish size had ‘‘decreased a lot’’. Respondents observed the most significant decrease in species diversity in Huong Phung (north-central) and Phu My (center). In Huong Phong, almost 90% of respondents indicated that species diversity had decreased either ‘‘a little’’ (35%) or ‘‘a lot’’ (55%). Although 33% of respondents in Phu My reported that species diversity had stayed the same, a further 44% of respondents also noted a decrease in diversity since 1999, a difference likely attributable to the higher portion of respondents using net enclosure as well as other gear types. In Ving Giang, in the south, a small majority of respondents (57%) indicated that species diversity had stayed about the same with most other respondents reporting a decrease in diversity. Comparison of observations about catch data (capture fishing) and harvest data (aquaculture) reveal further spatial differences among the three study sites. Huong Phong (in the north-center) was the only commune where respondents reported an increase in the amount of fish harvested since 2006 (57%), and correspondingly, the majority of respondents from this site indicated either optimism (24%) for the future of aquaculture in the lagoon or believed it would stay the same (27%). In Phu My, in the center of the lagoon, the majority of respondents surveyed noted that the total amount of fish harvested in aquaculture activities since 2006 had decreased ‘‘a lot’’ (35%) or ‘‘a little’’ (29%). Southern lagoon residents in Ving Giang indicated the greatest decrease to the amount of fish harvested between 2006 and 2009 with 50% of participants reporting the total number of fish harvested since 2006 had decreased ‘‘a lot’’ and another 29% indicating a decrease of ‘‘a little’’. This may correspond with the significant decrease in fish size found in this part of the lagoon. 4.3. Institutional and governance shifts Institutional arrangements for fisheries resources in Tam Giang Lagoon have evolved over time, resulting in a complicated patchwork of customary practices and newer regulations that respond to shifts in gear use and the rise in fish farming (Table 3). During the socialist regime, 1975–1986, lagoon management consisted of local practices (drawing on the Vanchai tradition, see (Ruddle, 1998; Boonstra and Nhung, 2011) for an analysis pre-1975) mixed with highly centralized planning regulations found in post-1975 socialist Vietnam (Huong and Berkes, 2011). All means of production were collectivized and individual ownership was banned. Production was organized through cooperatives believed to be efficient and productive while also keeping rural differentiation in check (Kerkvliet and Selden, 1998). As the Vietnamese state could not easily enforce collectivization, some forms of fixed fishing gear were tolerated within water bodies (legally owned by the state) (Luttrell, 2001). For those fishers who had been practicing a Author's personal copy 190 environmental science & policy 27 (2013) 184–194 Table 3 – Institutional shifts relating to fisheries governance. Regime Socialist reforms Time period Explanation 1976–1985 A mix of centralized directives to organize production via cooperatives, combined with continuing traditions of local management of fixed (stationary) gear. Introduction of aquaculture to the lagoon – a first come, first serve mentality ensues. De facto privatization is legalized, mixed with an informal acceptance of ‘customary’ practices. Directives for management tend to be passed down from the provincial level. As part of broader decentralization reforms, the Fisheries Law is updated (2006). This enables socio-cultural organizations at a local level to play a role in lagoon management. Greater government-local partnerships emerge, including co-management arrangements. Doi Moi reforms 1986+ Decentralization reforms 2006+ form of fixed fishing gear (such as stake traps), there was a scramble to establish control over their semi-permanent fishing locations and to appropriate new locations leading to a general encroachment on collective resources (Kerkvliet, 1995). Nylon nets were also introduced during the socialist period enabling people to fish more intensively within the Lagoon (Boonstra and Nhung, 2011). During the Doi Moi or economic reform era, fish farming emerged as yet another driver of change to the lagoon. These reforms supported the development and growth of fish farming, and included an updated 1987 Land and Fisheries Laws enabling households to obtain long-term user rights over natural resources. This, coupled with the Department of Fisheries supplying training and loans, helped to stimulate the boom in shrimp aquaculture seen throughout Tam Giang Lagoon in the 1990s (Phap, 2000). This was a period in which aquaculture companies invested in intensive shrimp production. As lagoon resource users have indicated, those practicing fish farming or a form of fixed fishing gear have tended to benefit economically far more than those practicing mobile gear fishing. Conflicts during this period (1990s and early 2000s) escalated (Phap, 2000; Tuyen, 2006). Decisions about fishing activity, however, mainly took place at a provincial level, with fisheries officers being far removed from the everyday lives of fishers. This began to change in the 2000s, in response to a general decentralization effort to the district level in Vietnam, a realization that ecological conditions in the lagoon were rapidly changing and that government was not doing an adequate job of managing change (Ratner et al., 2012). More recent efforts of pilot projects on local resource management of lagoon resources have highlighted alternative strategies to deal with rapid change in the lagoon, including an emphasis on co-management efforts (Tuyen et al., 2010). Table 4 – Selected fisher views on fishing associations and co-management.  Opportunity to participate more effectively in decision making and new incentives to collaborate with other actors.  Voice for fishing communities in regards to discussions with commune and district level officials, and new opportunities to learn together about problems and potential solutions.  Fishing Associations are linked to recent mechanisms to make claims and obtain rights over defined areas of lagoon space.  Links to better enforcement, patrolling of lagoon areas and protection against fishers from other area. Source: Focus group discussions with fishing association in Phu An (December 2008), Vinh Giang (June 2010); Tuyen, T.V. pers comm., 2011 There is an emerging realization that both capture fishing and fish farming need to be considered in tandem in terms of any form of management since there is such a dynamic interplay between these production systems (i.e., fish farmers relying on wild feed, drawing on wild seeds or juvenile fish for grow out) (Marschke et al., 2012). As such, one recent strategy to deal with such complexity has been to allocate collective and territorial use rights for fishing and aquaculture activities to a legally constituted fishing association at the village or commune level. A network of fishing associations has emerged that are recognized by higher level authorities as having an important role to play in managing aquatic resources in the lagoon (Table 4). There are now 50 fishing associations established at the village or sub-commune level with over 4500 members across the lagoon. For individual Fishing Associations to be granted formal territorial fishing ‘rights’ over the lagoon, 75% of a village needs to belong to the association and they need to show the district government their plans for fisheries management, which includes provisions for fish farms, fixed and mobile fishing gear. Lagoon resource users note that having a local fishing association enables greater input into fishing conditions and practices. As one fisher stated (focus group, May 2011), ‘‘through the fishing association we can now manage many small conflicts, and can help to regulate illegal fishing practices’’. In another area the fishing association was able to reduce the number of stake traps from 89 to 56 since this mobile fishing gear is perceived to be so efficient that it is impacting the ecosystem. Current management practices better enable fishers to have a say in managing their resources, while acknowledging collective and individual rights over fishing and fish farming. Results suggest that there is value to such collective organizing and that conflicts between fishers are less intense than in the past, but it remains difficult to halt general ecological decline (Armitage et al., 2011; Marschke et al., 2012). Fishers perceive a benefit in having greater local control over their natural resources but acknowledge the challenges they continue to face given the multiple factors that are beyond local control (the use of highly efficient gear, general over-fishing etc.). 5. Discussion and conclusions Results of this research suggest the future for small-scale fish producers in the Tam Giang lagoon is relatively bleak. Two decades of economic growth, rapid aquaculture expansion and the intensification of resource exploitation is altering the Author's personal copy environmental science & policy 27 (2013) 184–194 Fig. 3 – Trajectories of change in the lagoon. Tam Giang lagoon system. Trajectories of ecological decline, constraints on livelihoods, and fishers’ perceptions that small producer fish production is not a desirable livelihood for their children all point to significant uncertainty about the future. Relatively weak institutions and increasing competition for aquatic resources from aquaculture and capture fishing have catalyzed exploitation and provided short-term incentives to use destructive fishing gear (e.g., bottom net stake traps) or, particularly from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, engage in risky forms of aquaculture (i.e., semi-intensive shrimp culture). The combination of these conditions left unchecked 191 may undermine the ability of the system to cope with further change. Projected impacts from climate change (i.e., sea level rise, an increase in lagoon temperatures), market pressures, and the possible trend toward consolidation in small producer fish farming, as seen in some areas of southern Vietnam (Loc et al., 2010), may accentuate the direction of these trends. This aggregate view of the system reflects a trajectory of interconnected social and ecological change that is essential for policy makers and funding agencies to consider. Indeed, the resulting social-ecological trap (sensu Cinner, 2011) will be increasingly difficult to escape if drivers of change are left unaddressed, or if key positive social-ecological feedbacks are not disrupted (e.g., declining resource access, further pressure on resources). Fig. 3 provides a conceptual view of the key activities and directions of change in the lagoon, and the possibility to shift the trajectory of change with new institutional arrangements and incentives (dashed line). However, this aggregate view of the lagoon system may mask how drivers of social and ecological change are in fact quite specific to place, even in what is a biophysically welldefined system. Within the lagoon, there is spatial differentiation in terms of: (1) the extent of fishing and aquaculture practices; (2) changes to fishing and aquaculture activity (introduction of new gear, modifications in production strategy from intensive to semi-intensive fish farming); (3) a high degree of interplay among capture fishing and fish farming as people seek to engage in both; (4) biophysical Table 5 – Selected policy opportunities to support small-scale fisheries in the Tam Giang Lagoon. Intervention Adopt an integrated fishery systems perspective Adopt an integrated coastal perspective to support small-scale fishers Synthesize existing information and enhance information base Formalize monitoring and assessment to foster adaptive, collaborative management Strengthen institutional network for collaborative decision making additional support to Fishing Associations (FAs) and capacity building Ensure security of access to resources Systematically identify sites of high biological productivity and consider if and how protection can be improved Incorporate in decision making and planning the significant local knowledge of capture fishers and fish farmers Lagoon example National Vietnamese fisheries policy can learn from the mandate of local Fishing Associations: linking small scale fishing with small producer aquaculture is critical for any intervention to succeed. Small producers are engaged in mixed livelihood strategies within an intensely used coastal ecosystem; economic development policies and support programs (e.g., credit access, extension) should better reflect the critical importance of small-scale producers to the local economy and future of an ecologically productive lagoon system. A lack of systematically collated ecological and biophysical data makes it difficult to link institutional interventions (co-management, use rights) with improved conditions. While donor led projects and other research has produced valuable information, it is scattered across the lagoon, generally not comparable, and difficult to aggregate to discern broader trends. The numerous changes (socio-economic, institutional, ecological) occurring in the lagoon are not effectively monitored or assessed; collaborative or community-based monitoring programs should be established to track key trends. The emergence of a network of FAs is a positive outcome of greater participation and collaboration in the lagoon; policy aimed at supporting FAs through financial support, and the ability to collect and use fees to support local activities has been identified as important. Fishing Associations – legally recognized socio-cultural institutions – play a key role in ensuring access and improving conditions for small-scale fish producers. Such organizations need on-going support to ensure the rights allocated to them support ecosystem wellbeing and sustainable livelihoods. Certain areas of the lagoon are established spawning grounds, or provide key habitat (sea grass beds). Local protection is emerging but the institutional basis for this protection is not well established; periodic closure of activities in and around protected sites may be feasible. Given that the lagoon is a ‘data poor’ setting (see above), particularly in regard to systematic biological/fisheries data or information on water quality, there is value in drawing on and collaboratively exploring the knowledge of lagoon resource users. Author's personal copy 192 environmental science & policy 27 (2013) 184–194 conditions and ecological outcomes attributable to production activities; and (5) perceptions of the future among fishers that depend in part on their main livelihood activity and the fishing gear they may use. For example, in several areas of the lagoon, notably in the north-central areas, fishers and officials note that water exchange has been severely constrained by the density of net enclosure and aquaculture, exacerbating water quality issues and leading to disease outbreaks. Given the impacts on capture fishers, there is a need to work carefully with diverse lagoon user groups to create additional open waterway space as has been done in selected sites (see Tuyen et al., 2010). As another example, the boombust cycle and use of more intensive fixed gear fisheries in the central area of the lagoon (Phu My) is reflected in the lower levels of optimism about the future. There is an opportunity in this context to identify alternative livelihood approaches, or to link fish production more closely to emerging market opportunities (e.g., certification schemes). Regardless, sensitivity to individual aspirations and values of small-scale fish producers in this setting is crucial. Some individuals are prepared to seek alternative livelihoods beyond the fishery, while others may see fishing as a way of life (Chuenpagdee, 2011). Access to credit and other supports to intensify and/or ‘formalize’ production may not be an easy answer. The data indicate that access to credit (an often identified strategy to help reduce poverty) to enhance production and participate in intensive aquaculture in this context can have perverse effects if the underlying ecological constraints of the system are misinterpreted. In the Tam Giang lagoon, for example, access to credit has enabled individuals to engage in activities with greater potential for income (e.g., aquaculture). However, the apparent trajectories of ecological decline (Fig. 3) reflect the already intense pressure on lagoon resources, and as a result, many now face a household debt crisis because a key feedback has been ignored. This is likely to have spill-over or cascading effects in the lagoon system that exacerbate underlying conditions. There are some mitigating factors to this apparent trajectory (e.g., the emergence of polyculture). However, a lack of attention to social-ecological feedback may explain in part why policy support for smallscale fish producers is often misguided or inappropriate (Berkes, 2011; Chuenpagdee, 2011). Sustaining the fishery system in the Tam Giang lagoon will require fishery scientists and policy makers to adopt a linked social-ecological perspective (see McClanahan et al., 2009; Berkes, 2011; Ratner et al., 2012). Conventional fisheries policy mechanisms (see Charles, 2011a,b) that focus on intensification, or on technological fixes, can miss the fine-grained social and ecological complexity of smallscale fisheries. In contrast, an integrated policy approach is necessary to account for social and ecological feedback (see Table 5). For example, individuals are by necessity increasingly engaged in mixed production strategies (capture fishing and fish farming), moving between and within production strategies depending on the season, disease outbreak and a host of other variables that impact production. One of the ways in which small-scale fish producers are ‘resisting’ further change and stabilizing opportunities for their future involves institutional innovation. Co-management arrangements and a network of fishing associations have emerged in the lagoon to better address conflict and foster cooperation between users. As noted above (Section 4.3), fishers (including fish farmers) have identified improvements in their relationships with other users and officials and we can hypothesize about the connection between emerging forms of more collaborative governance and greater cooperation (e.g., better vertical and horizontal linkages among actors). There is the potential that these governance arrangements may mitigate the impacts of ecological change (i.e., by helping improve stocking density, banning of destructive fishing gear) (Fig. 3), and allow some younger people to stay within the fishery. However, an empirical link between collaborative decision making and greater ecological sustainability is not yet established (Armitage et al., 2011), and significantly more effort is required to understand and monitor biological productivity in the lagoon through time and space. Effort is subsequently needed to determine how valued aquatic resources may be conserved. In this regard, and given the lack of data, there is a valuable opportunity to link science assessments with the knowledge of lagoon resource users about aquatic change and ecology. Small-scale fisher livelihoods are influenced by common drivers of change, many of which originate beyond the local system. However, some of these drivers are more important than others (e.g., gear choices, property rights), while specific attributes of the system (water quality, harvestable species) may be changed very rapidly (e.g., as with the introduction of very efficient fishing gear, or the use of certain chemicals in fish farming). Circumstances in the Tam Giang lagoon are thus quite challenging, and interventions to dampen trajectories of change and escape a social-ecological trap are difficult to identify. As the data from the Tam Giang lagoon case reveals, however, efforts to understand the future of small-scale fish producers and improve the conditions they find themselves will benefit from sensitivity to fine-grained differences in fisher experiences, awareness of the feedback between social and ecological processes, and development of cross-scale and integrated policy interventions. Acknowledgements We thank our research partners at the Hue University of Agriculture and Forestry. In particular we thank Ms. Hoang Hong Que and her research team, along with Dr. Truong van Tuyen who helped to facilitate this research. We also thank the villagers and government officials with whom we spoke. The research is supported by grants to both D. Armitage and M. Marschke from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. Additional support was provided through the ‘‘Governance and Management of Common Pool Resources in Vietnam’’ project funded by the International Development Research Centre. Finally, we thank the constructive feedback from three anonymous reviewers on an earlier draft. D.A. and M.M. are equal co-authors on the paper Author's personal copy environmental science & policy 27 (2013) 184–194 and jointly engaged in research design, data collection, analysis and writing. references Allison, E., Ratner, B., Åsgård, B., Willmann, R., Pomeroy, R., Kurien, J., 2011. Rights-based fisheries governance: from fishing rights to human rights. 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