Iraq 1976–1999

MIDDLE EAST CONTEMPORARY SURVEY Iraq 1976 – 1999 Volumes I – XXIII CD-ROM Version OFRA BENGIO, Editor LYDIA GAREH, Executive Editor The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies The Shiloah Institute Tel Aviv University Tel: 972-3-6409100 Fax: 972-3-6415802 E-mail: dayancen@ccsg.tau.ac.il Visit us at www.dayan.org Table of Contents Preface Transliteration Initials and Acronyms List of Sources and News Agencies Vol. I: 1976-77 Iraq, Uriel Dann and Ofra Bengio ................................................................................. 403 Vol. II: 1977-78 Iraq, Ofra Bengio and Uriel Dann ................................................................................. Party and Government ................................................................................................. The Ba‘th National Command as of October 1977 ....................................................... The Council of Ministers as of September 1977 and Subsequent Changes .................... Army and Security ....................................................................................................... The Communist Party .................................................................................................. The Kurds ................................................................................................................... Shi‘i and other Groups ................................................................................................ The Arab-Israeli Conflict ............................................................................................. Relations with Arab and Neighbouring Countries ......................................................... Relations with Turkey ................................................................................................. The Persian Gulf .......................................................................................................... International Relations ................................................................................................. Economic Affairs ......................................................................................................... Tables ......................................................................................................................... 513 514 514 516 518 519 521 522 522 524 525 525 526 529 532 Vol. III: 1978-79 Iraq, Ofra Bengio and Uriel Dann ................................................................................. Domestic Affairs ......................................................................................................... Saddam Husayn’s Assumption of Power and its Aftermath...................................... The Council of Ministers as of 16 July 1979 and Subsequent Changes .................... The Governmental System ..................................................................................... The Composition of the RCC following Bakr’s Resignation on 16 July and the Executions of August 1979 ............................................................................... The Iraqi Communist Party and the Ba‘th: From Alliance to Confrontation ............ The Kurdish Problem ............................................................................................. The Shi‘i Challenge ................................................................................................ The Position of Minorities ...................................................................................... Foreign Affairs ............................................................................................................ The Pan-Arab Drive ............................................................................................... The Arab-Israeli Conflict ........................................................................................ Iraq’s Response to the Revolution in Iran ............................................................... International Relations ........................................................................................... Relations with the USSR ........................................................................................ Relations with Western Countries .......................................................................... 559 559 559 562 565 566 567 568 570 571 572 572 574 575 576 577 577 Economic Affairs ......................................................................................................... Tables ......................................................................................................................... 579 583 Vol. IV: 1979-80 The Iraqi-Iranian War, Ami Ayalon ............................................................................. Historical Background ................................................................................................. Iraq’s Motives and War Objectives .............................................................................. Setting the Stage ......................................................................................................... The Armed Confrontation ............................................................................................ The Political and Diplomatic Scene .............................................................................. Inter-Arab Repercussions ............................................................................................ The Great Powers ....................................................................................................... The War and its Repercussions: A Preliminary Evaluation ........................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 14 14 15 17 17 19 22 25 26 28 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... Saddam Husayn’s Regime -- Continuity and Change .................................................... Table 1: The Council of Ministers as of October 1979 and Subsequent Changes ..... Consolidation of the Ba‘th Party Hegemony ................................................................ The National Assembly (NA) ....................................................................................... The Army and the Popular Army ................................................................................. Nuclear Development .................................................................................................. The Opposition ............................................................................................................ The Iraqi Communist Party (ICP) ........................................................................... The Kurdish Question ............................................................................................ The Shi‘a ............................................................................................................... Foreign Affairs ............................................................................................................ The Iraqi-Iranian Conflict until the Outbreak of War .............................................. Table 2: Border Clashes until the Outbreak of Full-scale War ................................. Pan-Arab Trends .................................................................................................... The Arab-Israeli Conflict ........................................................................................ International Relations ........................................................................................... Economic Affairs ......................................................................................................... The Armed Forces ....................................................................................................... Economic Tables ......................................................................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 501 501 502 504 506 507 508 510 510 511 513 516 516 518 523 523 524 528 530 531 534 Vol. V: 1980-81 Strategic Developments in the Persian Gulf, Avi Plascov ............................................ The War in the Gulf ..................................................................................................... Course of the War .................................................................................................. The Deadlock ........................................................................................................ The Military Balance .............................................................................................. The Role of the Super Powers ................................................................................ Regional Implications ............................................................................................. Regional Security Arrangements: The Gulf Co-operation Council ................................ Conflicting Threat Perceptions ............................................................................... The Iraqi-Iranian Shadow ....................................................................................... 21 22 22 25 26 27 29 29 31 33 Patron-Client Convergence? -- The AWACS Deal ....................................................... Saudi Considerations .............................................................................................. Components of the Arms Deal ............................................................................... Potential Implications of the AWACS deal ............................................................. American Expectations versus Saudi Perceptions ................................................... Super Power Competition ........................................................................................... The Soviet Position ................................................................................................ American Strategy: Components and Constraints ................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 34 34 35 36 38 39 39 41 46 The Nuclearization of the Middle East: The Israeli Raid of Osirak,Haim Shaked ..... The Background .......................................................................................................... Nuclear Proliferation: The Global Dimension ......................................................... Nuclear Proliferation: The Middle East Dimension ................................................. The Iraqi Nuclear Programme ................................................................................ Table 1: Nuclear Facilities in the Middle East ......................................................... The Political-Strategic Context .............................................................................. The Immediate Political-Military Environment ....................................................... The Raid on Osirak ..................................................................................................... How the News was Announced .............................................................................. Operation Babylon ................................................................................................. Immediate International Reactions ............................................................................... The Themes of the Debate ..................................................................................... The Actors ............................................................................................................. The Aftermath ............................................................................................................. The Actors ............................................................................................................. The Fora ................................................................................................................ Conclusion .................................................................................................................. Notes .......................................................................................................................... 182 182 182 184 186 187 191 192 193 193 194 195 195 196 199 199 203 207 207 The Iraqi-Iranian War: Political Perceptions on Both Sides, Uriel Dann ................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 351 356 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... A Year of War ............................................................................................................. The Home Front .......................................................................................................... Baghdad's Portrayal of the War .............................................................................. Accommodation to a State of War ......................................................................... The Military ........................................................................................................... The Opposition ...................................................................................................... The Effect of the War on Iraq's International Relations ................................................ Relations with the USSR ........................................................................................ Relations with the United States ............................................................................. Relations with France ............................................................................................. Other West European Countries ............................................................................. Iraq's Evaluation of Arab Attitudes ........................................................................ Baghdad's Reaction to the Raid on the Nuclear Reactor ............................................... 578 578 579 579 580 584 585 591 591 592 593 593 594 595 Interim Assessment ...................................................................................................... Economic Affairs ......................................................................................................... The Armed Forces ....................................................................................................... Economic Tables ......................................................................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 596 597 599 601 603 Vol. VI: 1981-82 Persian Gulf Security: A Region of Higher Stakes and Greater Dangers,Kenneth Hunt ............................................................................................................................ The East-West Confrontation ...................................................................................... Regional Threats to Security ........................................................................................ The Iraqi-Iranian War ............................................................................................ Afghanistan ............................................................................................................ Some Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 19 20 22 22 24 25 The Iraqi-Iranian War, Uriel Dann .............................................................................. The Clearance of Iran (September 1981-May 1982) ..................................................... Iraqi Unilateral Withdrawal .......................................................................................... The Thrust against Basra ............................................................................................. Iranian Thrust in the North; Iraqi “Exclusion Zone” in the Gulf .................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 309 310 312 312 313 314 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... The Second Year of War ............................................................................................. The Changing Tide of the War: An Overview ......................................................... Some Iraqi Interpretations of the War .................................................................... Preserving the Spirit of Victory -- A Prime Goal .................................................... The Regime ................................................................................................................. The Entrenchment of Saddam Husayn .................................................................... The Ba‘th Party Ninth Regional Congress .............................................................. The Shake-up of Summer 1982 .............................................................................. The Armed Forces ....................................................................................................... The Opposition ............................................................................................................ The Kurds: Renewed Disturbances ......................................................................... The Iraqi Communist Party: Attempts to Regain a Foothold ................................... The Islamic-Shi‘i Challenge: The Regime’s Reaction .............................................. Foreign Relations ........................................................................................................ Arab Countries’ Attitudes: The Baghdad View ....................................................... The Non-Aligned Summit: An Enterprise that Failed .............................................. Relations with the two Super Powers ..................................................................... Table 1: The Composition of the Council of Ministers as of 28 June 1982 .................... Relations with other Countries ............................................................................... Table 2: The Composition of the Revolutionary Command Council as of 28 June 1982 ......................................................................................................... Table 3: The Composition of the Ba‘th Party Regional Command as of 28 June 1982... Economic Affairs ......................................................................................................... The Armed Forces (Supplement) ................................................................................. Economic Tables ......................................................................................................... 582 582 582 584 586 587 587 588 590 592 595 596 599 601 603 603 604 606 608 610 611 611 612 613 615 Appendix: Statement of the Iraqi Ba‘th Party Ninth Regional Congress -27 June 1982 ......................................................................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 615 628 Vol. VII: 1982-83 The Iraqi-Iranian War, Uriel Dann .............................................................................. The War on the Land ................................................................................................... Mediation and War Aims ............................................................................................. France ......................................................................................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 256 256 257 259 260 The Impact of the Gulf War on the Iraqi and Iranian Kurds,Charles G. Macdonald Kurdish National Goals in Iraq and Iran ....................................................................... Kurdish Political Forces and Shifting Alignments ......................................................... Central Government Policies towards the Kurds .......................................................... External Involvement and the Future of the Kurds ....................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 261 262 264 267 269 271 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... The Regime ................................................................................................................. Party Affairs .......................................................................................................... The Government .................................................................................................... Husayn’s Bid for More Support ............................................................................. The Home Front .......................................................................................................... The Social and Economic Aspect ........................................................................... The Ideological Aspect .......................................................................................... The Standing of the Armed Forces ......................................................................... The Regime Versus the Opposition .............................................................................. The Kurdish Scene ................................................................................................. The Threat of Islamic Revivalism ........................................................................... The Impact of the War on Foreign Relations ................................................................ The Arab Arena ..................................................................................................... The Arab-Israeli Conflict ........................................................................................ The Powers ............................................................................................................ Economic Affairs ......................................................................................................... The Armed Forces ....................................................................................................... Economic Tables ......................................................................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 560 561 561 563 564 566 566 568 570 572 574 577 579 581 583 585 588 590 591 591 Vol. VIII: 1983-84 The Iraqi-Iranian War, Uriel Dann .............................................................................. Notes .......................................................................................................................... 183 186 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... The Fourth Year of War: A Background Note ............................................................. The Regime ................................................................................................................. The Tikriti Family Affair ........................................................................................ Reshuffles .............................................................................................................. 465 465 467 468 469 The Impact of the War on the Home Front .................................................................. Husayn vis-a-vis the Military .................................................................................. The Standing of the Military ................................................................................... Mobilization ........................................................................................................... Social and Economic Problems .............................................................................. The Opposition ............................................................................................................ The Kurds .............................................................................................................. The Shi‘is .............................................................................................................. Foreign Relations ........................................................................................................ The Impact of the War on Foreign Relations .......................................................... The Arab World ..................................................................................................... The Soviet Union ................................................................................................... The United States .................................................................................................. France and Britain .................................................................................................. Relations with Turkey ............................................................................................ The Arab-Israeli Conflict ........................................................................................ Table 1: Army Commanders as of January 1984 and Subsequent Changes ................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 470 470 471 473 476 479 480 483 484 484 485 487 488 489 490 490 492 493 Vol. IX: 1984-85 The Iraqi-Iranian War, Uriel Dann .............................................................................. Five-and-a-half Years of War: An Interim Balance Sheet ............................................. Notes .......................................................................................................................... 168 173 177 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... The Regime ................................................................................................................. The National Assembly ................................................................................................ The War Effort ............................................................................................................ The Opposition ............................................................................................................ Islam and the Shi‘i Opposition ................................................................................ The Kurdish Problem ............................................................................................. The Impact of the War on Foreign Relations ................................................................ The Restoration of Relations with the United States .................................................... Relations with the Soviet Union ................................................................................... Pan-Arab Issues ........................................................................................................... Table 1: Army Commanders, October 1984-85 ............................................................ Notes .......................................................................................................................... 460 462 464 465 467 469 470 474 475 478 480 482 483 Vol. X: 1986 The Iraqi-Iranian War, Uriel Dann .............................................................................. Notes .......................................................................................................................... 157 162 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... The Regime ................................................................................................................. The War Effort ............................................................................................................ The Opposition ............................................................................................................ The Impact of the War on Foreign Relations ................................................................ Table 1: Army Commanders as of January 1986 and Subsequent Changes ................... 361 363 371 378 383 391 Table 2: The Composition of the Ba‘th Party Regional Command as of July 1986 ........ Notes .......................................................................................................................... 392 392 Vol. XI: 1987 The Iraqi-Iranian War, Gideon Gera ........................................................................... Military Developments ................................................................................................ The Tanker War .......................................................................................................... Security Council Resolution 598 .................................................................................. The Superpowers and the Conflict ............................................................................... Balance and Outlook ................................................................................................... Appendix I: The Cease-fire Resolution ........................................................................ Appendix II: Security Council resolution 598 -- Comparison of Iraqi and Iranian Positions on Main Paragraphs ................................................................................ Notes .......................................................................................................................... 180 180 184 190 191 192 193 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... The “ Modernization of the State” ................................................................................ The War Effort ............................................................................................................ The Opposition ............................................................................................................ The Foreign Arena ...................................................................................................... Table 1: Ministerial and Other Changes ....................................................................... Table 2: The Military High Command .......................................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 423 425 434 437 444 454 455 456 194 195 Vol. XII: 1988 The Iraqi-Iranian War, Gideon Gera ........................................................................... The Last Stages of the War ......................................................................................... The Cease-fire and After .............................................................................................. The Establishment of the Cease-fire ....................................................................... The Negotiations ................................................................................................... Preliminary Balance and Outlook ................................................................................. Notes .......................................................................................................................... 205 205 213 213 216 218 221 Iraq, Ofra Bengio............................................................................................................ The Regime ................................................................................................................. From War to Nonbelligerence ...................................................................................... The Two-track Policy toward Religion ........................................................................ Crushing the Kurdish Uprising ..................................................................................... The Impact of the End of the War on Foreign Relations ............................................... Iraq and the Arab-Israeli Conflict ................................................................................. Table 1: Leading Iraqi Figures ..................................................................................... Table 2: The Military High Command .......................................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 500 502 511 519 521 525 533 535 537 538 Vol. XIII: 1989 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... After the War: Encouraging Iraqi Nationalism ............................................................. Rehabilitating the Hashemite Family ....................................................................... 372 374 374 The Reconstruction Drive ...................................................................................... Moves toward Democracy: Much Ado about Nothing? ............................................... Experimenting with a Free Press ............................................................................ Natinal Assmebly Elections: The Same Old Game .................................................. Functioning of the Government ................................................................................... The Family Musical Chairs ..................................................................................... Figure 1: Saddam Husayn’s Family Tree ...................................................................... Reshuffles .............................................................................................................. Lowering the Profile of the Ba‘th ........................................................................... Military Affairs ............................................................................................................ Keeping the Military in Check ................................................................................ Dilemmas of Demobilization .................................................................................. Ambitious Arms Industry Programs ....................................................................... Social and Economic Problems .................................................................................... Tensions Between State Employees and the Private Sector .................................... Tension Between Iraqis and Egyptians ................................................................... Other Socioeconomic Pressures ............................................................................. The Crisis of the Opposition ........................................................................................ The Plight of the Kurds ............................................................................................... Foreign Relations: The Regional arena ......................................................................... Iraq and Iran: No Peace, No War ........................................................................... Iraq, Israel, and the Palestinians ............................................................................. Revived Leadership Ambitions in the Arab World .................................................. Foreign Relations: The Global Arena ........................................................................... The Soviet Challenge ............................................................................................. Ambivalent Relations with the United States .......................................................... The Scandal with Italy ............................................................................................ Cooling Relations with France ................................................................................ The Iraqi-British Complex ...................................................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 375 376 377 379 381 381 382 383 384 386 386 387 388 389 390 392 393 394 394 399 399 401 404 406 406 408 410 411 412 413 Vol. XIV: 1990 The Gulf Crisis: Origins and Course of Events, Barry Rubin ...................................... Historic Factors behind the Kuwait Crisis .................................................................... Iraq’s Drive for Hegemony, August 1988-April 1990 .................................................. The Buildup of forces against Kuwait, July-August 1990 ............................................. The Diplomatic Crisis, August-December 1990 ........................................................... Appendix I: Participants in the International Coalition ................................................. Appendix II: United Nations Security council Resolutions Pertaining to the Gulf Crisis89 Notes .......................................................................................................................... Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... Saddam Husayn’s Grand Strategy ................................................................................ The Domestic Scene: Containing Internal Pressures ............................................... Military Might versus a Crumbling Economy .......................................................... Foreign Relations: The Buildup of Tensions ........................................................... The Bazoft Execution: A Portent for the Future ..................................................... Attitudes toward Israel: Iraq’s Double Role of Wolf and Lamb .............................. 73 73 77 82 83 89 96 379 381 381 384 387 389 393 The Change of Heart toward Iran ........................................................................... The Execution of a Strategy ........................................................................................ “The Return of Kuwait to the Motherland” ............................................................ Diversionary Moves ............................................................................................... Occupation, Annexation, Iraqization ...................................................................... Facing the World ................................................................................................... The Domestic Impact ............................................................................................. Table 1: Iraqi Opposition Groups and Fronts ............................................................... Table 2: The Military High Command .......................................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 395 397 397 401 402 405 412 417 420 420 Vol. XV: 1991 The Military Dimension of the Gulf War, Yigal Sheffy ................................................ “ We will Make Them Swim in Their Blood”: Iraq’s Misperception .............................. No More Vietnam: The Coalition Strategy .................................................................. The Curtain Goes Up: The Air Campaign .................................................................... Khafji and Scuds: The Iraqi Response .......................................................................... Surprise and Deception: The Key to Victory ................................................................ Futile Diplomacy ......................................................................................................... Thrusting the Saber ..................................................................................................... Conclusion .................................................................................................................. Table 1: Coalition Forces ............................................................................................. Notes .......................................................................................................................... 63 65 67 68 72 74 76 77 81 84 87 Iraq, Meir Litvak ............................................................................................................ Iraq and the Gulf War .................................................................................................. Civil War in Iraq .......................................................................................................... Husayn Reasserts His Rule .......................................................................................... Iraq and the World ...................................................................................................... Appendix I: Regional Command of the Ba‘th Arab Socialist Party ............................... Appendix II: The Iraqi Cabinet, March-September 1991 .............................................. Notes .......................................................................................................................... 416 418 423 431 438 443 444 444 Vol. XVI: 1992 The Search for Gulf Security: The Politics of Collective Defense, Joseph Kostiner ..... The Arab Gulf States’ Indecisiveness (Winter and Spring 1992) ................................... Basic Considerations .............................................................................................. Difficulties in Arriving at a Security Arrangement ................................................... Divided Security and Growing Conflicts (April-October 1992) .................................... Escalation of the Iraqi-Kuwaiti Tension .................................................................. Iran’s Bid for Regional Influence ............................................................................ The Saudi-Qatari Dispute ....................................................................................... Gulf Security in the Fall of 1992 ............................................................................. Attempts to Defuse Tension (Fall and Winter 1992) .................................................... Attitudes toward Egypt and Syria ........................................................................... Readdressing the Issue of a GCC Army .................................................................. Limited Achievements ............................................................................................ Notes .......................................................................................................................... 227 230 230 231 235 235 235 237 238 239 239 240 240 241 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... “The Miracle of Survival” ............................................................................................ Saddam Husayn: “ Master of the Waves” ................................................................ The Changing Role of the Ba‘th Party .................................................................... Iraq’s Military Strength: Perception and Reality ..................................................... Democratization Revisited ..................................................................................... Addressing Socioeconomic Problems ..................................................................... The Struggle for Iraq ................................................................................................... The Kurds’ Window of Opportunity ....................................................................... Table 1: The Council of Ministers of the Kurdistan Region .......................................... Divide and Rule the Shi‘is ...................................................................................... Unifying the Opposition: An Impossible Mission? ................................................... The Struggle Against Partition ............................................................................... Facing the World ......................................................................................................... “ War of Attrition” against the UN .......................................................................... Iraq and the US: The Enemy Complex ................................................................... Kuwait: “Poisoned Honey” .................................................................................... Iraq’s Glorious Isolation ........................................................................................ Notes .......................................................................................................................... 447 451 451 456 458 461 463 467 467 473 474 480 483 484 484 488 489 491 494 Vol. XVII: 1993 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... The Regime and the Paradox of Stability ..................................................................... Saddam Husayn, the Invincible Leader ................................................................... ‘Udayy Saddam Husayn: Grooming the Heir Apparent? ......................................... The Ba‘th Party Silver Jubilee: Resurgence or Decadence? ..................................... The Cabinet: Sharing Responsibility but Not Power ............................................... The Economic War ................................................................................................ Social Dislocation .................................................................................................. Experimentation in Kurdish Self-Rule .......................................................................... Internal Politics and Conflicts ................................................................................. Iraqi Kurdistan vis-a-vis Baghdad ........................................................................... The Changing Role of Neighboring Countries ........................................................ Attempts to Break Regional Isolation ..................................................................... Containing the Shi‘a .................................................................................................... The Marshlands at the Mercy of the Ba‘th .............................................................. Controlling the Holy Sites, Placating the Shi‘i Tribes .............................................. Disseminating the Ba‘thi Brand of Islam ................................................................. The Opposition: Not an Alternative to the Ba‘th .......................................................... Foreign Relations ........................................................................................................ The Vicious Circle of Sanctions ............................................................................. Attempts to Break the Vicious Circle ..................................................................... Facing America’s New World Order ...................................................................... Iran and the US Policy of Dual Containment .......................................................... Iran and Kuwait: The Same Old Game? .................................................................. Iraq vis-a-vis Israel and the Peace Process .............................................................. Table 1: The Cabinet of September 1993 ..................................................................... 364 367 367 369 371 373 375 378 381 381 384 385 387 389 389 390 391 393 394 394 397 400 402 404 405 408 Table 2: The Unified Iraqi National Congress (INC) .................................................... Notes .......................................................................................................................... 409 409 Vol. XVIII: 1994 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... The Regime: Coping with Internal Crises ..................................................................... Saddam Husayn and Family: Further Tightening the Grip on Power ....................... Security and Military Affairs: The Eroding Morale ................................................. Economy: “The Fateful Battle” .............................................................................. Toward Social Disintegration? ............................................................................... Handling the Double-Edged Sword of Islam ................................................................ Reviving Islam in the Ba‘thi Style ........................................................................... Sharpening the Sword of Islam ............................................................................... The Struggle for Iraqi Kurdistan .................................................................................. Kurdish-Kurdish Fighting ....................................................................................... Roots of the Conflict .............................................................................................. Regional and International Ramifications of the Conflict ......................................... Containing the Shi‘is ................................................................................................... The Opposition’s Dilemmas ......................................................................................... Foreign Relations: Attempts at Breaking the Vicious Circle ......................................... The October Gulf Minicrisis ................................................................................... “ Drinking the Posioned Chalice”: The Recognition of Kuwait ................................ Wrestling with the US ............................................................................................ Attemps to Win Over the Waverers ........................................................................ Russia .............................................................................................................. France .............................................................................................................. Turkey ............................................................................................................. Courting the Arabs and Iran ................................................................................... Ambiguous Attitudes toward the Peace Process ..................................................... Appendix: The Military High Command ...................................................................... Notes ......................................................................................................................... 320 323 323 327 329 333 335 335 337 339 339 340 343 346 348 350 350 352 354 356 356 357 358 359 360 363 363 Vol. XIX: 1995 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... Challenges to the Ba‘thi Regime .................................................................................. Disaffection among the Military, Unrest in the Anbar Governorate ......................... Repercussions of the Unrest in the Ba‘th Party ....................................................... Cracks in Family Solidarity: The Defection of the Kamils ....................................... Reshuffling Family Positions .................................................................................. The Referendum for Saddam Husayn ..................................................................... Challenges to the State ................................................................................................ Turkey’s Incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan ................................................................ Developments in Iraqi Kurdistan ............................................................................ The Kurdish Civil War ...................................................................................... The Mediation Card .......................................................................................... The Future of Iraq: Federation, Disintegration or Reintegration? ............................ Challenges to Iraqi Society .......................................................................................... The Socioeconomic Predicament: The “Crossing” that Failed ................................. 310 312 312 315 317 320 321 323 323 324 324 327 330 332 332 The Policy of “The Sword and the Smile” .............................................................. Foreign Relations: Attempts to Break out of Isolation ................................................. Ongoing Duel with the UN over the Sanctions ....................................................... Iraq versus the US ................................................................................................. Courting the Waverers: France and Russia ............................................................. Iraq’s Regional Isolation ........................................................................................ Relations with Turkey ....................................................................................... Relations with Iran ........................................................................................... Relations with Jordan ....................................................................................... Reintegration into the Arab World Thwarted .................................................... Challenging the Arab-Israeli Peace Process ....................................................... Table 1: Regional Command of the Ba‘th Arab Socialist Party As of 17 July 1995 ....... Notes ......................................................................................................................... 333 335 335 337 338 340 340 340 341 343 344 345 346 Vol. XX: 1996 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... The Regime: Coping with Challenges .......................................................................... Crime and Punishment: Death in the Ruling Family ................................................ The Baghdad Version of “Rashumon” .................................................................... The Blood Feud’s Vicious Circle: The Attempt on ‘Udayy Husayn ........................ Refurbishing the Regime’s Image ........................................................................... The Reinforcement of President Husayn’s Position ........................................... Coping with Pressures for Democratization ...................................................... The Opposition: Much Ado About Nothing? .......................................................... Containing the Shi‘is ......................................................................................... The Economy: Attempts to Stop Further Deterioration .......................................... The Battle for Kurdistan .............................................................................................. Awkward Alliances, Strange Bedfellows ................................................................ Military Activities: War by Proxy ........................................................................... The Regime: Confronting the Challenge to the State’s Territorial Integrity ............. The Ambiguous Involvement of the US in Iraqi Kurdistan ...................................... Barzani’s Volte-Face: A Reassessment ................................................................... The Foreign Arena: Baghdad’s Slow Emergence from Its Isolation .............................. The Iraqi-American Duel ........................................................................................ Facing the “ Obstructionists” -- Iran, Kuwait and Israel ........................................... Arab Countries: Changing Perceptions of Iraq? ...................................................... Dissenters from the Anti-Iraqi Alliance ................................................................... A Long Road for the Oil-for-Food Agreement ....................................................... Notes ......................................................................................................................... 323 326 326 327 329 331 331 332 333 335 336 337 337 340 341 343 344 345 345 347 349 351 354 356 Vol. XXI: 1997 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................... The Regime: President Husayn’s Balancing Game ....................................................... The Campaign to Rehabilitate ‘Udayy .................................................................... Family Politics, Vengeance and Power ................................................................... Balancing Tribe and Party ...................................................................................... Governmental Changes .......................................................................................... Socioeconomic Malaise ............................................................................................... The Iraqi Opposition’s Predicament ............................................................................. The Kurdish Arena: Internal and External Problems Intertwined .................................. The Kurdish-Kurdish “Peace Process” .................................................................... The Impact of the First Turkish Operation .............................................................. The Impact of the Second Turkish Operation ......................................................... The Making of Foreign Policy ..................................................................................... “ Divide and Contain the UN” ................................................................................. The First Confrontation .................................................................................... The Second Confrontation ................................................................................ The Third Confrontation ................................................................................... Challenging the “ New World Order” ...................................................................... Russia’s Pivotal Role ............................................................................................. France Plays Second Fiddle .................................................................................... Courting the Arabs ................................................................................................. Attempts at Rapprochement with Iran .................................................................... Ambivalent Relations with Turkey .......................................................................... Israel: An Everlasting Theme ................................................................................. Notes ......................................................................................................................... 372 374 374 375 377 379 380 382 384 384 387 388 389 389 390 391 392 395 397 398 400 402 403 405 405 Vol. XXII: 1998 Iraq, Ofra Bengio............................................................................................................ Internal Affairs During “The Model Revolution” Anniversary Year............................... The Regime’s Loyalists ........................................................................................... Administrative Reshuffles........................................................................................ Further Entrenchment by President Husayn ............................................................. Efforts to Unseat Husayn ........................................................................................ Manipulating Islam and Containing the Shi‘is .......................................................... The Kurds............................................................................................................... The KDP–PUK Dialogue................................................................................... Courting the Kurds ................................................................................................. Washington’s Role.................................................................................................. The KDP–PUK Washington Summit ................................................................. The Kurds’ End of the Bargain .......................................................................... Iraq’s Socio-Economic Predicament........................................................................ Foreign Relations ......................................................................................................... Confrontations with the UN .................................................................................... Iraq and the US: Testing the Limits of a New Policy?.............................................. The Russian Role: Disappointing Performance ........................................................ The French Role: Unfulfilled Expectations .............................................................. Ambivalent Relations with Turkey........................................................................... 286 289 289 291 292 294 296 298 298 299 300 301 302 303 305 305 307 308 309 310 A Thaw in Relations with Iran................................................................................. Fluctuating Arab Positions ...................................................................................... Ongoing War of Words with Kuwait ....................................................................... Iraq and the “ Missiles of Rancor” against Israel....................................................... 311 312 314 315 Vol. XXIII: 1999 Iraq, Ofra Bengio ........................................................................................................ 262 The Regime: Survival Against All Odds ............................................................... 265 Saddam Husayn Attempts to Break Out of “The Box” ................................... 265 Family Politics ................................................................................................ 269 The Shi‘i Intifada that Failed to Materialize ................................................... 270 A Grand Design for the Opposition ................................................................ 273 The Kurdish Scene: Continuity and Change ......................................................... 275 Joining the Game of Nations .......................................................................... 276 A Dialogue in Conflict .................................................................................... 278 The Socioeconomic Predicament Revisited .......................................................... 280 Foreign Affairs ...................................................................................................... 282 Iraq, US, Britain and the “Silent War” ............................................................ 282 War of Attrition at the UN .............................................................................. 283 Russia and France: Old Allies that Failed Baghdad ........................................ 285 A Softening of Iraq’s Position as the Outcast of the Arab World ................... 286 Relations with the Non-Arab Neighbors ......................................................... 289 Notes ..................................................................................................................... 291 Preface This CD product comprises a year-by-year survey of twenty three years in the contemporary political, social, cultural and economic affairs of the Republic of Iraq. It contains the chapters analyzing events in that country as published, annually since 1976, in the Middle East Contemporary Survey (MECS), an acknowledged standard reference work on the region. This is an endeavor to present a comprehensive CD-based study of an individual Middle Eastern country over an extended period of time, allowing the user to follow long-term trends and search for names and concepts throughout Iraq’s recent history. The last year covered here is 1999. The CD will be updated periodically, based on demand. MECS is an annual survey produced by the Shiloah Institute of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University. Designed to be a continuing, up-todate reference for scholars, researchers and analysts, policymakers, students and journalists, it examines in detail the rapidly changing Middle Eastern scene in all its complexity. Each volume contains country-by-country surveys of the Arab states from Morocco to the Gulf, Iran, Israel and Turkey, as well as essays on broad regional issues and on the relations of the Middle East with other parts of the world. Most of the chapters in each volume are researched and written by members of the Dayan Center, while contributions are also made by academics and experts from other institutions in Israel and abroad. The period covered in each of the first nine volumes was November-to-October. Subsequent volumes cover calendar years. Over the years, several editors have been successively in charge of coordinating the project and editing the text. Their names are indicated respectively on the title pages of each volume, reproduced below. The present project may be regarded as a sample of MECS standards and concerns. Included are all the annual chapters on Iraq from the series’ country-by-country section, as well as other essays focusing on Iraq, the Iraqi Iranian war, the Gulf war, and Gulf security. Other MECS sections, not reproduced here, often discuss Iraq in various contexts, and the user is referred to MECS for further consultation. Iraq played a central role in Middle East developments during the last decades of the twentieth century. Especially eventful were the ascent to absolute power by Saddam Husayn, the bloody eight-year war with Iran, and the 1991 Gulf war. All had far-reaching impact, not only within the region, but in international affairs as a whole. A close reading of twenty-two consecutive years of Iraqi modern history promises to confer new insights and deeper understanding of the various forces and mechanisms operating within Iraq, and between Iraq and the rest of the world. The “Iraqi story,” marked by the rise and decline of a regional power, the establishment and consolidation of a brutal totalitarian regime, and the phenomenal survival of its leader throughout all of the tumultuous upheavals, is surely an intriguing story worthy of attention. In the present product, MECS chapters have been reproduced in their original format, including page enumeration as appeared in each volume and cross-references to other sections of the same volume. Transliteration The Arabic language b d dh f gh h k kh m n for for for for for for for for for for for for Jd has been transliterated u p 9 4 k L’ 9-D $I 5 P ir as follows: 9 r s sh t th w (or u) Y (or 9 z for for for for for for for for for for for In addition, the following should be noted: Long vowels are not marked for distinction from short ones. Thus ,kt = nazir, but also & = nazir. The hamza is used only in the middle of a word. The shadda is rendered by doubling the consonant containing it. The ta marbuta is not shown, except in construct phrases. Thus madina, madinat Nasr. The definite article is always shown as “al-“, regardless of the kind of letter following it. Exceptions to the above are Lebanese and North African proper names which have adopted a French spelling. In transcribing Persian, frequent allowance is made for pronunciation; thus Khomeyni (not Khumayni). Names appearing in both Arabic and Persian texts are transcribed according to the language of the relevant text. Thus Hizballah (Arabic) or Hizbollah (Persian).