Poverty and structural adjustment : the African case

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized HumanResourcesDevelopmentand OperationsPolicy The World Bank September1993 HROWPS POVERTYAND STRUCTURALADJUSTMENT: THE AFRICAN CASE Ishrat Husain Papsm tis sedesaen formalpublihationsof theWorld ank Theypesp miuyand unpolish res of analysisdht is ciculated to eacourage d accounof itsprovisi characr. The findings.inanprezin, atd condusins discussin nd commnma; citon andthe wseof such a pWap take expressed in this pper areentirelythose of theauthot(s)and swuldno be attbhe in any mannertothe Word Bank,to its affiliatedorganos, orto membes of its Boardof liecutve Dirts or the coantryeth pse POVERTYANDSTRUCTURALADJUSTMENT: THE AFRICANCASE by Ishrat Husain The author acknowledgesthe assistanceof Diane Steele in preparing this report from a set of backgroundpapers produced by the Africa Region of thx ,-,Id Bank (see Bibliography). Abstract Structuraladjustmentprogramsrestructhe the productivecapacitiesof a countryin order to increase efficiency and to restore growth. In Sub-SaharanAfrica, there is widespread poverty, fragile resources, high populationgrowth rates and low economicgrowth rates. The high populationgrowthrate stressesthe naturalresourcebase and taxesthe govenments' already limited financialand institutionalcapacity to provide essentialsocial sevices. Implementation of basic adjustmentreforms is clearly essenta to restore growth, and further accelerationin growth is needed to reduce the number of the poor. Roughly 80-90 percent of the poor in Africa live in rural areas and consist of selfemployedagriculturalhouseholds. Adjustmentprograms that focus on broad-basedgrowth in agricultureoffer the most immediateopporauity for aleviating povertyand promotingeconomic growth. Growth must be accompaniedby human capitalformation, the upgradingof sills and improved delivery and access to social services. Spending in the social sectors during adjustmenthas not decreased, however, the reallocationof those funds towardsthe subsectors which most benefit the poor (pnmary education,basic health, etc.) is clearly required. Contents I IfnRODUC'fON ............................... ADJUSTMENTIN AFRICA STRUCTURAL POVERTYIROFL.E ............................. S. ADJUSTMENT,RELATIVEPRICECHANGESAND GROWTH ADJUSTMENTAND THE SOCIALSECTORS.11 CONCLUSION.13 BIBUOGRAPHY.16 7. 3 INTRODUCIION Structuraladjustmentprogramsare aimedat restructuringthe productivecapacitiesin order to increaseefficiencyand to restore growth. In Sub-SaharanAfrica (SSA),the policy instruments most frequentlyused to achievethis objectivehave includedi) realisticexchangerate, ii) improved agricultureproducerincentives,iii) foreigntradeliberalization,iv) domesticmarketderegulationand price de-controls,v) public sectorefficiencyimprovement,and vi) fiacial sectorrestructuring. Any attemptby a governmentto restructure significantportionsof its economywill be accompaniedby significantchangesin socialconditions. Criticismshave been leveledat structural adjustmentprogramsin SSAbasedon the belief that their impacthas been inordinatelydestructive to the poor (Oxfam1993). Thesecriticismscall for the end of adjustmentin the area. The effectsof an adjustmentprogramon the poor are certainto be complexand difficultto analyze. Thisderives in part becausean adjustmentprogramusuallyinvolveschangesin a number of policy instrumentsand each instrumentmay have conflictingeffects, but also because of differencesin the charactersticsof poor households. Figure 1 (taken from Demeryet al. 1993) illustratesthe complexityof this process. Policiesaffect the welfareof the poor throughtwo main "mesoeconomic'channels:marketsandinfrastructure.The fonnerincludesboth factorandproduct markets, and both formal and informalsegments. The latter covers both social and economic infrastructure. Whetherpoor householdsbenefitor not from a.packageof policyreforms depends on the net effect of these processes. In general, adjustnent policies have had favorablemarket effects for most of the poor in Africa (the exceptionsbeing possibly the urban poor). The infrastructuraleffectsare less certain. 2 Fiure 1 Macro-neso-microanalysis Fsoeloeconomit Policy | Malcro, pollicy Tiedepolicy |Setto 51policy |Ma rkets| |Sociatl polity| ln1,1ttftsttelt Social tabot Rural Utbon Preoduct Crodit Health EducatIlon EConomIc HouSeftOldt a_ Income Assets rousehold | Expeclloas |Demasd lactlole SuPPl atte IresponsesI Women I 4 Erpenditareslpoverty Employment Smaliholders Outcomes Migration Eduation Health Nutrition Fertiity A hierarchicalinformationsystemfor the socialdimensionsof adjusutent (1) Level Mco i I I I (2) Focus (3) Analysis (4) Constructs Poliy OMonetary, fiscal, andexchange rate policy oMacroeconomic models -agregate (RMSM) -multisectoral (COE) eNationalaccounts *conomic, trade, *Socialaccounting matrix and financial *Consumer prce index sistics oBalanceof payments *Socialand eMacro-indicators demographic V stastics Meso Effec I I V Micro (5) Date eMarkets I Economicand socialinfrastructure eSectoraland eSocialaccountingmatix institutional studies *Foodbalavcesheets eCGE oSectoralqtuatityand eMultimarket models prce indices impaa *Individual and householdwelfare *Household models andanalysis *Povertyprofiles *Socialindicators Souc: D6msy, L, M. Ferroni, and C. Grootaezt,eds 1993. Unde RAonn. Washidngton, D.C.: WorldBank. *Community survey *Pnicestatistics *Production statistics *Household surveys -economic -social -anthropometric -demographic naing the Socia Effects of Polity 3 ADJUSTMENT IN AFRICA STRUCTURAL program wereinitiatedin the SSAregionabouta decadeago. After Structuraladjustment muchdiscussion anddebate,theywereadoptedby a majorityofthecountriesonlyin thesecondhalf of the 1980s. Sincethen, muchexperiencehas been gainedwhichcan be used to providean objectiveassessmentof these programs. There is by no meansunanimityon the impactof of the expectationsaboutwhat adjustmentprogramsand there is a lack of clearunderstanding adjusunent wasmeantto achievein SSA. Theconfusion hasbeenfuritheraggravated by thefailure to isolatethe effectsof initialconditions,externalshockandpolicychanges. It shouldbe recognized thattheperformance of SSAcountries,evenat thebestof timesin the recenthistory,has notbeen spectacular.Table1 illustratesthat SSAas a regionhas always laggedbehindthedeveloping countriesas a group,includingduringthe 1960sand1970s.Theonly differenceinthe 1980shasbeenthatthepopulation growthratewashigherandaveraged3.1 percent annuallycomparedwith2.7 percentin the 1960sand 1970s. Thus,it shouldnotbe expectedthat weakinstitutions, inadequate physicalinfrastructure SSA,withdeep-rooted structuraldeficiencies, and an undeveloped humanresourcebase wouldbe able to performbetterthan the developing countriesas a whole. TheexpectaionsaboutAfrica'sgrowthshouldbe realisticandmodest. In thelastthreeyears,developing countriesas a grouphavehadstagnantor negativeper capitaincome growth,andthisfactshouldbe takenintoconsideration whenassessingSSA'sperformance. 4 TABIE I GlDPGROWTHRATEPER CAPITA (Annual Average Percent Change) 1960s 1970s DevelopingCountries 4.2 Sub-SaharanAfrica 1.7 1980s 1990 1991 1992 2.6 1.5 -0.5 -1.7 -1.4 0.6 -1.1 -1.7 -1.4 -0.4 1 and, althoughIts sharein intemationaltrade SSA is quiteintegratedintothe worldeconomy has declinedover tme, most of the commoditiesit produces(petroleum,beveragesand minerals) are consumedprimaily in the OECD countries. Thus, the economicconditionsin those countries, e.g., the growth in incomeand demand, the relativeprices, etc., have a disproportionatelylarge Influenceon what happensto SSA. A deep and long recessionin the world economywill have seriousnegativerepercussionsdespitethebestpolicyeffortsof Africancountries.The termsof trade for SSAhave cumulativelydeclinedas well. While desirableeconomicpolicychangeswere beginningto gain acceptanceand take root in many of the African countries, the incipientpoliticaltransition process has either caused a temporaryhiatusin economicpolicychangesor ignitedshort-rundisruptionin the levelandintensity of economicactivity. The situationvaries considerablyamongcountriesandwhile, in the long run, politicalpluralismn is expectedto promotebetter economicgovernance,an assessmentof short-run economicperformancewill oftenshowup the negativeresultsof the politicaltransition. I Export/GDPtatio of SSAis 31 percet comprd with21 percentfor developing countriesas a group,28 percentfor EastAsiaand 14percentfor LatinAmerica. Notresourceflowsfiromextewnal sournesare 6 percent of GDPfor SSAoomparedwith 1.7 percentfor SouthAsia,0.7 percentfor EastAsiaand 0.4 percentfor Latin Ameica. S The reductionof povertyis one of the fundamentalissuesin economicdeve%pment.This is especiallydifficultin SSAbecauseof the fragileresources,highpopulationgrowthrates and low economicgrowthrates. Adjustmentprogramshave increasedgrowthin someof the countrieswhere they havebeen effectivelyimplemented,butoverallthe numberofpoor continuesto growthroughout the region, even In countrieswith strongajustment programs. Countrieswithwidespreadpovertyandweakinstitutionsneedbroad-basedeconomicreforms and investmentsin basic social services. The retuns to expenditureson basic social servicesare higher than expenditurestargetedto the poor throughfoodor fertilizersubsidies. This paper presentsan overviewof the effectsof adjustmentin terms of povertyreduction and accessto essentialsocialservices. It looks at the distributionof the poor in the regions, the impactof adjustmenton growth,and the expendiuresin the social sectorsduringadjustment. POVERTYPROFILE To analyzethe situationof the poor in SSA,it wouldbe necessaryto havehouseholdsurvey data both before and after adjustnent. Such data are rare and are only lately being collected throughoutthe region. However,usingthehouseholdsurveysthat haverecentlybeen completedand supplementingthem with partial or anecdotaldatapertainingto a few other countriesit is possible to draw some generalizations.Strongconclusionscannotbe drawn from thesestudies,but they do give somebroad senseof the order of magnitudeinvolved. The householdsurveyswhichare being 6 undertakenin 21 Africancountrieswill providebetter informationin a few years. On the basisof thes surveysand studiesit is possibleto assemblesome stylizedfactsabout the number,locationand characteristicsof the poorin Africa. Thesefacts are not applicableto each and every Africancountrybut are representativeof the averagetendencies. * The poor in Africa are heavilyconcentratedin rural areas and consistof smallholders. In C8te d'Ivoire about 80 percent of the country's poor are in the rural areas; in Ghana80 percent;in Madagascar92 percent;and in Malawi99 percent. i Self-employedagricultureincomeis the most importantsourceof income. Off-farm incomesand wage earningsare less importantthan in other developingregions. - A large share of agriculure incomeis the imputedvalue of food producedand consumedby the householdsthemselves. * Agriculturesales consistmainlyof export crops. For example, 80 percent of the poor in COted'Ivoire livingin Savannahproduceexportcrops. * The incomesandconsumptionlevelof lowwage earnersin theurban areasare much higherthan those of the self-employedagriculturalworkersin the rural areas. These facts lead to the followingconclusions:the majorityof the poor live in rural areas, drawtheir mainsourceof incomefromself-employedagricultureproduction,consumeself-produced food and sell export crops for cash income. The urban poor consistmainlyof the self-employed informalsectorworkersandminimumwageearnersbuttheir proportionin the total numberof poor rangesbetween4 and 20 percent. 7 ADJUSTMENT,RELATIVEPRICECHANGESANDGROWTH Empirical evidenceclearly shows that growth that makes greater use of the factors of productionownedby the poor - principally,land and labor - can have a significanteffect on poverty. If the pattern of growthis highly capitalintensiveand importintensive,as was the case previouslywithAfricancountries,highergrowthwill nothave muchimpacton poverty. Therefore, the choiceof instrumentsfor promotinggrowthand ensuringfree mobilityof factors,particularly labor, are importantconsiderationsin the designof adjustmentprograms. Ineffectivecapitalmarkets inhibitemploymentgrowth, and institutionalor regulatorybarriers constrainthe poor's accessto labor and productmarkets. Attemptsto reformthe financWsector and removethesebarriers are certainlygoingto help the poor. Becausethe majorityof Africans- and the majorityof Africa's poor - live in rural areas and are self-employedsmallholders,adjustmentprogramsthat movethe terms of trade in favor of the rural sectorand focuson broad-basedgrowthin agricultureoffer themostimmediateopporunity for alleviatingpoverty and promotingeconomicgrowth. Agriculturalgrowth, and the resulting increasein the purchasingpower of rural Africans,is the engineof growthfor manufacturingand services- activitieswhichmust expandif Africansare to enjoy a muchwider range of economic choicesthan is now conceivable. Earlier strategiesneglectedagriculture,a sector in whichAfrica has a clear comparativeadvantage. Agriculturecurrentlyprovides33 percentof Africa's GDP, 40 percent of its exports and 70 percent of its labor force. Even when full accountis taken of the environmentallimits to land exploitation,the scope for expandingproductionthrough increased productivityis great. Risingagriculturaland rural incomesthrougha doublingof agriculturegrowth 8 rate form the mainstayof adjustmentprograms, and therebyoffer significantpromisefor poverty reduction. Prior to adjustment,biasesagainstagriculturewere extreme- in the formof directtaxesand effortsto provide the effectsof overvaluedexchangerates andindustrialprotection.Well-intentioned farmerswith servicesthroughpublicsectorinputsupplyand marketinginstitutionscommonlywent to waste becausethe institutionsconcernedwere hopelesslyinefficient. Whenlow growthturned into full-scalecrisis in the early 1980s,manygovernmentsrespondedby increasingthe rationingof foreign exchangeand domesticgoodswhich slowedgrowthand hurt the poor. In Tanzania,for example, the bulk of what little foreignexchangewas availablewas allocatedto extraordinarily inefficientindustries,whilemost basicconsumergoodsbecameunavailablein rural areas. Prior to reform,thepoor in countrieslike Mozambiqueor Tanzaniaoftenreceivedthe worst of both worlds, purchasinggoods at high parallel market prices, while sellingtheir agricultural produce at depressedofficW prices. Fertilizer subsidiesbenefitted large farmers and foreign exchangecontrolsrewardedwell-connectedbankers, industrialistsand bureaucrats. Devaluation, liberalizationof agriculturalmarketing,higher producerprices, lower taxationof agricultureand increasedoutput response have tended to rain the incomesof the rural poor. While there is evidencethat adjustmentpoliciesof this type have generallyhelpedthe rural poor, the urban poor may have sufferedin somecases as a resultof increasesin producerpricesof foodand the removal of consumersubsidies. Countrystudieshave shown,however,that foodprices in urban areas had often already adjustedto higher parallelmarketprices, and subsidizedfood at officialor rationed segments- civilservants,army,etc. Besides,where priceswas availableonlyto the well-connected 9 adjustmenthas been consistentlypursuedand growthis being restored,as In Ghana,urban wages have begunto recoveras well. The aim of policy reformin Africahas been to redressthesepast biases. Depreciatingreal exchangerates and liberalizingexternal and internal trade both raise the prices of tradeable agriculturalgoods. Cocoa farmers in Ghanaand Nigeriaexperienceda doublingor more of the purchasingpowerof their cropsbecauseof exchangerate depreciationand rises in the shareof the finalprice they received. Ruraldwellersin Tanzaniadiscoveredthat they couldagainhave access to consumergoods, and they respondedby increasingagriculturalsupply. A severe lack of data makes a firm assessmentimpossible,but the combinationof a recoveryin growthand the removal of some of the worst and-ruralbiaseshelpedmanyof the poor. Experienceto date also shows the difficultiesentailed in tackling Africa's agricultural of exports problems. In somecountries,failureto implementpoliciesthat buildthe competitiveness has contributedto a squeezeon tradeablesthat has hurt agriculturalproducers. In other countries, producer prices for exports have stagnatedor fallen despiteprice reforms, reflectingtrends in internationalcommodityprices. In others, economy-widereformsneed to be complementedby a far-reachingreform of marketing. While successesin Ghana and Nigeria were partly due to marketingreform, in Tanzaniadelays in implementingmarketingreforms for some export crops causeddelaysin passingon benefitsto producers. In Malawi,untilrecently,restrictionswere placed on the productionof profitableexport crops by smallfarmers. These restrictionshave sincebeen removedand an increasingnumberof smallholdersare being givenlicensesto take their products directlyto the auctionfloor. 10 of prices and marketinghas contributedto an In the food crop sector, the Liberalization increasein food production. Per capita food productionhas held steady in the latter half of the 1980safter a fail in the first half. Thishas helpedto limit foodimportsin manycountries;overall, cereal importsin the late 1980swere 8 percentlowerthan in the early 1980sand foodaid has been halvedto 2.5 milliontons from 4.8 milliontons. Foodprices showno overalltrend in real terms, and increaseddomesticfoodproductionmay have contributedto incomegains by net producers. Stablefoodprices help those amongthe poor who are net purchasersof food. A4jusme by itself is not enoughto bring aboutsignificantchangesthat will benefitthe rural poor. Investingin rural roads, developingresearchand extensionservices,and developing privateservicesare equallyimportantfor broad-basedrural development. This will take time and differentkindsof governmentaction. areisgro poorestegionwhere _~-po-or h eMsotrd hvemvdifaoofooprucr crp~badto, ..... . '' ,~~~~~~. GO nagdi daacolcedb Wpier&U E iigait sInce19MA. rt.a..Y.iio.. conr..hwsth lbodsupp_$e.atioacos theV rgos icngtgte ....l...... k* the 8Os wiAf...lslnteKOrs S~IoyPr~jU. f Togu,Co adPoIjlw,RotN. Anyessmem W 11 ADJUSTMEN AND THE SOCIALSECTORS It is equallyclear that highergrowthby itself, even of the type that increasesthe Incomes of the poor through reallocationof resources and increasedreturn on assets they hold, Is not sustainableunlesshumancapitalformation,the upgradingof skills and accessto socialservices,are placed on equal footing with income augmentationprocesses. Recent empiricalwork strongly confirmsthat developmentin humanresourcesis an excellentinvestmentin tenns of its contnbution to sustainableeconomicgrowth. Thereis a strong,positiveassociation,for example,betweenschool enrollmentandthe averagerates of growth. An educatedpopulationis the keyto long-termgrowth. Educationraises the outputof farmersas educatedfarmersabsorbnew informationquicklyand are willingto innovate. Educatedwomenhavehealthierand fewer children. Women'seducationalso has environmentalbenefitsbecauseit reducesfertility, discouragesforest clearingby insuringthat women have better work options, and improveswomen's ability to manage natural resources. Similarfindingsshowup in health,education,nutritionand familyplanning. Indeed,improvement in any one of theseareas tends to raise economicreturns in the others (see Psacharopoulos1993). Contraryto popularbelief, the datashowthat the real levelsof governmentexpendituresfor educationand health increasedin the adjustingcountrieswith only a few exceptions. The trend showsan upwardsurge and a larger shareof any increasein total spendingbeingallocatedto social sectors. But there are still seriousquestionswhetherthe spendirgis adequatelydirectedtoward primaryeducation,basichealth, etc., the subsectorswhichbenefitthe poor most. In the courseof the 1980s,the Bankhas paid increasingattentionto this issue, emphasizingimprovedsocial service deliveryand the protectionof educationand healthspending,especiallyat the primary levels. A 12 third of adjustmentloans involvedconditionalsocial sectorspendingin 1989-90,up sharplyfrom only 7 percentin the first half of the decade. Despitethe crisis, the socialindicatorsin SSAhave continuedto improveas can be seen in Table 2. The period 1985-91,i.e., the adjustmentperiodin most Africancountries,does not show a reversal of this trend. And this improvementcuts across all groups of countries. Even the countrieswith civil wars and socialunresthave seenan increasein life expectancyand a declinein infant mortality. Nineteencountrieshave reduced infant mortalityrates to below 100 in 1991 comparedto only seven a decadeago. TABLE2 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOCIALINDICATORS Life Expectancyat Birth InfantMortalityRate 1973 1985 1991 45.1 49.3 50.8 137 118 107 Male 37 56 62 Female 11 33 39 38 43 45 2067 2097 2117 AdultLiteracyRate Female PrimaryEnrollment Calorie intakeper capita 13 lhe vtido nalwsdomthot cuth print fric hare sfueffedired aunretade stru alth n detriratngecnom, he oo wre ored o utther penin o edcaio ~an4healh ~r*. arens culd ot afor topa -tanclayxp tue iatedby thereiw ofempiiricalo eviden As 1c.mot oho epoorlieinrua prgrm istno sbtn the poor. PuedbliculI ares, hehit ingruraltotermos traehat heopeauga entteicmso miladmjrcti otajsing countriees.esabutt expedituesnysocialserviceshand als cout taen The poorv~entionl wisom thubth spoordin onAfrica tavesufre ade stl en thserviecos isoclagreg aratesed ingmohtunderastructureal adjutin counriesota However,ralveryiof baithi de th, to.I theshr spendingsehaimd atrinyreatanexhpendithrsonpiat w yeducatmebsi hrop expndiurs o npy soiasevie have oalsoedngde not t ekn lmjo cthen mholsto. adutne ontis Howeer,reallocation Vdi othavesetosisaregarywrated daa in modgt adjuetpegctunriestoatha spendin aini ould beadted atnraigepnalysres onprbimar epeduceatin, baitchepalthet.ontheshr 14 run, the impactof adjustmentpoliciesdependson whetherthe poor are net producersof tradable goods sincethesepoliciestend to raise relativeprices, wagesand employmentfor thisgroup. It is, however,conceivablethat manyof thepoliciesthat benefitthe poormay, in the short,be detrimental to the urban populationthat has been the beneficiaryof past policies. The major concernsaboutthe adjustmentprogramsin Africaare the continuedtrendsof low overall investmentlevels, lack of private investment,low domesticsavingsratios and increased dependenceon foreign aid. Even in adjustingcountrieswhichhave done reasonablywell ir growth and exports, the domesticsavingsratioshave declinedover time and aid dependencehas increased. This continues to be true in almostall Africancountie. Publicsectordissavingsare the majorsourceof declining nationalsavings,and prudentfiscalpolicy will not only help macroeconomicstabilitybut will also make availablea larger flow of nationalsavingsfor purposesof productiveinvestment. The reasonsfor lack of privateinvestmentare varied and not fully understood. Political instabilityand lackof confidencein governmentsare regardedas the ostensibleculprits. Investors may perceivethat the reformshave not yet been fmly rootedor privateinvestmentdoes not enjoy full commment of the Governmentas an objective,andthus adopta 'wait and see"attitude. Some observersalludeto the fact that thereis not muchorganizedprivatesector in these countries,or if it exists, is dominatedby ethnicminorities. Fmnally,the risks to foreign investorsin Africa are relativelyhigh while the rewardsare low. 15 It is alsopossiblethat the officialstatisticswhichthe internationalfunancialinstitutions(IFs) and the Africangoverunentsuse may be understatingthe role of informaland unorganizedsector activities. In the adjustmentperiod, there has been a buoyancyboth in the invesment, and levelof economicactivityin the informalsector. The "actual"growthand investmnt may be muchhigher than fte recorded statisticsshow. This measurementfactor may also be responsiblefor the pessimismabout savings,investment,employmentand growthin AfricanCountries. The challengefor the 1990sin Africais to designand implementgrowthstrategiesthat help increasereturnsto the assetsownedby the poor and raise levelsof socialexpendituresthat benefit them. 16 BIBLIOGRAPHY Abbate, F. and Tran-Nguyen. 1992. 'Official Debt Reduction:A ComparativeAnalysisof the TorontoOptions,the U.K. Proposaland the NetherlandsInitiative.nMimeo. A-Fosu. 1990. "Exportsand EconomicGrowth:AfricanCase." WorldDevelopment18(6). Akiyama,T. and D. Larson. 1993. "AddingUp Problem- Strategiesfor PrimaryCommodity Exportsin Sub-SaharanAfrica. WorldBank. Bagachwa, M., A. Mbelle and B. Van Arkadie. 1992. "Market Reforms and Parasttl Restructuringin Tanzania."Dar es Salaam:EconomicResearchBureau. Barrett, S. 1990. MacroeconomicPoicy Reformsand ThirdWorldSoil Conservadon. London: LondonBusinessSchool. Booth, D. et al. 1993. "Social,Economicand CulturalChangein ContemporaryTanzania:A People-OrientedFocus." SwedishInternationalDevelopmentAgency. Bourguignon,F., J. de Melo and C. Morrisson. 1991. "Povertyand IncomeDistributionDuring Adjustment:Issuesand Evidencefrom the OECD Project." WorldDevelopment(Nov). Clements,K.W. andL.R. Sjaastad. 1984. HowProtectionTaxesExporters. London:TradePolicy Center. Coleman,J.R., T. Akiyamaand P.N. Varanges. 1992. "Impactsof Policy Changeson Cocoa Sectorsin MajorSub-SaharanProducingCountries." World Bank. the SocialEffectsof Policy Demery, L., M. Ferroni and C. Grootaert,eds. 1993. Understanding Reform. Washington,D.C.: WorldBank. DeRosa, D. 1992. "Protection and Export Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa." Archiv128(1). WeltwirschqftlHicheo El-Farhan,H. "Analysisof the GrowthPerformanceof Sub-SaharanAfricanCountries1960-85." UnpublishedPh.D. thesis, London. Cited in T. Killick, 1992, "ExplainingAfrica's PostIndependenceDevelopmentExperiences." Ellies, F. 1982. "AgriculturalPrice Policyin Tanzania." WorldDevelopment10(4). Grootaert, C. 1993. "The Evolutionof Welfare and Poverty Under Structural Change and EconomicRecessionin Cbte d'Ivoire, 1985-88." PREWorkingPaper 1078,World Bank. 17 Helleiner,G.K. 1992. "TradePolicy,ExchangeRatesand RelativePrices in Sub-SaharanAfrica: Interpretingthe 1980s." Paper presented at the Conferencein Gothenburg, Sweden, September6-8. Husain,I. 1992. AdJustmentand the Impacton the Poor: The Case of Africa.' World Bank. . 1993. "Strucral Adjustmentin Sub-SaharanAfrica:A PreliminaryEvaluation." Paper presentedat the Seminaron InternationalDevelopmentIssuesin New York,EDI/NewYork Officeof the World Bank, May 18. * 1993. 'StructuralAdjustmentandThe Long-TermDevelopmentof Sub-SaharanAfrica." Paperpresentedat the InternationalSeminarStructuralAdjustmentandBeyond,The Hague, Netherlands,June 1-3. * 1993. "Trade,Aid and Investmentin Sub-SaharanAfrica." Paper presentedat the Royal AfricanSocietyConferenceon Africa'93: Governance,BusinessAid,Oxford,March21-23. Jamal, V. and J. Weeks. 1988. "The VanishingRural-UrbanGap in Sub-SaharanAfrica." InternationalLaborReview 126(3). Kanbur,R. andM. Feroni. 1990. "Poverty-conscious Restructuringof PublicExpenditure."SDA WorkingPaper No. 9, WorldBank. Kisamba-Mugemwa,W. 1992. "Povertyand Poverty - Alleviation Progress - The Experience of Uganda." Paper preparedfor AfDB/EDISeminar,March. Lal, D. 1987. "StructuralAdjustment,the Basic Needs Approachand DevelopmentPolicy." DiscussionPapersin EconomicsNo. 87-31. UniversityCollege,Departmentof Economics, London,England. Lerner, A.P. 1936. "The SymmetryBetweenImportand Export Taxes." Economica. Linn,J. 1993. "The MultilateralDebt Overhangin Sub-SaharanAfrica:Problemsand Solutions." Statementat the meetingof NordicOfficials,Oslo, April 21. Matin, K. 1992. "Openness and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa." PRE Working Paper No. 1025, WorldBank. Matin, K., et al. 1992. "Kenya:The Challengeof PromotingExports." UNDP/WorldBankTEP Report,December. Mistry, P. 1993. "AfricanDebt: Optionsfor the Future.' Paper preparedfor UNICEFMeeting on Debt, New York, March. 18 Moseley,K. 1992. "SeizingtheChange:EconomicCrisisandIndustrialRestructuringin Nigeria.' In J. Nyang'oroand T.M. Shaw,eds., BeyondStructuralAdjustmentin 4frca. New York: Praeger. Oxfam. 1993. "Africa,Make or Break:Actionfor Recovery.I Oxford,England:Oxfam. PegatlenanHiey, 1. 1992. "Povertyand Adjusunentin Africa:The Caseof COted'Ivoire." Paper preparedfor AfDBlEDISeminar,March. Pimentel,D. B. Floyd, W. Tell and1. Bourn. 1991. 'Deforestation,BionussDepletionand Land DegradationLinkagesto PolicyReformin Sub-SaharanAfrica." In J. LassoieandS. Kyle, eds., CornellNatural ResourcesResearchand ExtensionSeriesNo. 34. Ithaca, Cornell University. Psacharopoulos,G. 1993. "Returnsto Investmentin Education:A Global Update." Policy ResearchWorkingPaper No. 1067,WorldBank. Reed, D. 1992. Strutral Adjument and the Environment.Boulder,Colorado:WestviewPress. Sahn, D. 1991. "Doesadjustmenthurt the poor?" Mimeo. CornellUniversity. Stewart, F. et al. 1992. "AlternativeDevelopmentStrategies:An Overview." In P. Stewart,S. Lall and S. Wangwe, eds., AlternativeDevelopmentStrategiesin Sub-SaharanAfrica. London:MacMillan. UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP). 1993. HumanDevelopmentReport1993. New York: Oxford UniversityPress. Von Braun,K., T. Tekluand P. Webbe. 1991. "Labor-Intensive PublicWorksfor FoodSecurity. Experiencein Africa." IFPRIWorkingPaper No. 6, InternationalFood PolicyResearch Institute. World Bank. 1987. WorldDevelopmentReport1987. New York: Oxford UniversityPress. . 1992a. Report on ThirdAdjustmentLending. 1992b. WorldDebt Tables1992-93. Washington,D.C.: WorldBank. HRO DisseminationNotes Title Date Contactfor note No. I TobaccoDeathToll February19, 1993 L. Maica 37720 No.2 TheBenefitsof Education for Women March8. 1993 L. Malca 37720 No.3 Povertyand IncomeDistributionin Latin America March29, 1893 L Malca 37720 No.4 BIASis Herel (Committee on BusinessInnovationand Simplification) April 12, 1993 L Malca 37720 No.5 AcuteRespiratory Infections April 26, 1993 L Malca 37720 No.6 FromManpowerPlanningto LaborMarket Analysis May 10, 1993 L Malca 37720 No.7 EnhancingInvestments in Education Through BetterNutritionandHealth May24, 1993 L. Malca 37720 No.8 IndigenousPeoplein LatinAmerica June7, 1993 L Malca 37720 No. 9 Developing EffectiveEmployment Services June28, 1993 L. Malca 37720 No. 10 SocialSecurity:Promise& Pitfallsin Privatization: Experience from LatinAmerica July 12, 1993 L Malca 37720 No. 11 MakingMotherhoodSave August2, 1993 L Malca 37720 No. 12 IndigenousPeopleand Socioeconomic Development in LatinAmerica:TheCaseof Bolivia August30, 1993 L Malca 37720 Human ResourcesDevelopmentand OperationsPolicyWorking PaperSeries Author Date Contact for papW NancyBirdsall March1993 L Maica 37720 HROWP2 FactorsAffectingAchievement EduardoVelez in Primnary Education:A ErnestoSchiefelbein Reviewof the Uteraturefor JorgeValenzuela LatinAmericaandthe Caribbean April 1993 B. WashingtonDiallo 30997 HROWP3 SocialPolicyandFertility Transitions ThomasW. Merrick May 1993 0. Nadora 35558 HROWP4 Poverty,SocialSector Development andthe Roleof the WorldBank NormanL Hicks May 1993 J. Abner 38875 HROWP5 IncorporatingNutritioninto Bank-Assisted SocialFunds F.JamesLevinson June 1993 0. Nadora 35558 HROWP8 GlobalIndicatorsof Nutritional RaeGalloway RiskOil June1993 0. Nadora 35558 HROWP7 MakingNutritionImprovementsDonaldA.P.Bundy at LowCostThroughParasite Joy MillerDel Rosso Control July 1993 0. Nadora 35558 HROWP8 Municipaland PrivateSector DonaldR. Winkler Response to Decentralization TarynRounds and SchoolChoice:TheCase of Chile,1981-1990 August1993 E. DeCastro 89121 Tide HROWP1 SocialDevelopment Is EconomicDevelopment