Somalia: Birth pangs of a new era?
Somali politics is experiencing exciting times. However, they could be the birth pangs
of a positive turn of times: With the controversial and long-delayed election of the two
parliamentary chambers (just a few seats missing) nearly complete, speakers of the
two chambers were elected on April 26-27, 2022, according to the schedule. It was the
expected first showdown between the supporters of the controversial President
Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed ("Farmajo") and the opposition movement.
Already in the run-up to the setting of these two election dates, there were tangible
disputes. The main dispute was over the admission of 16 members of parliament from
the Gedo region. What exactly was at stake? The current presidency had been
initiating political "hot spots" throughout the country for several years in order to exert
influence on the outcome of the elections through an increased military presence.
Elders were intimidated, candidates were excluded from the elections and an overall
atmosphere of fear was spread. The Gedo region in the federal state of Jubaland was
particularly affected. On the clan side, the disputed president comes from this region,
which is entitled to 16 of the 275 parliamentary seats in the lower house according to
the agreed-upon election procedure. Also in view of the strong opposition movement
and the significant losses of the presidential movement in other federal states, these
16 seats were in the end considered necessary for the survival of the controversial
president's re-election. After no elections were possible there for more than 1.5 years
because the Gedo regional administration, acting on behalf of the presidency, did not
want to cooperate with either the Federal Electoral Commission or the Jubaland State
Electoral Commission, it was decided to hold the elections not in the agreed town of
Garbahaarey/Jubaland but in the Somali/Kenyan border town of Ceelwaaq. Here it was
possible to hold the elections under the protection of AMISOM/ATMIS. The Federal
Electoral Commission pushed and recognized these elections accordingly, whereas
the presidency-controlled administration in Garbahaarey protested vehemently and
rushed to hold its own elections.
After mortar shell attacks already occurred during the constitutive session of the
chambers in Villa Hargeisa, an area controlled exclusively by Somali security forces,
the elections for speaker of the upper house and the house of the people were moved
to the ATMIS-controlled safe zone of Halane. While the upper house elections were
apparently politically abandoned by the presidency in advance, where Senator Abdi
Hashi, an outspoken and long-time critic of President Farmajo, was re-elected, on April
27, 2022, the day of the election for speaker of the lower house, massive disruptions
of parliamentary proceedings occurred in advance of the scheduled parliamentary
session. Led by Somalia's now suspended and pro-presidential police chief, General
Abdi Hassan Hijar, heavily armed Somali police forces attempted to stop the newly
elected MPs from entering the safe zone. In particular, young parliamentarians and
MPs without their own bodyguards were stopped and prevented from entering the
election zone at force of arms. The reason given for this was the unclear status of the
Ceelwaaq MPs. This has led to considerable delays. In the end of the day, however,
these attempts at intimidation were of little use. After a delay of several hours, Sheekh
Aadan Madoobe, a former minister and speaker of parliament, was elected as the new
speaker of the House of People. Supported by the opposition, he received 163 votes
in the 2nd round (139 were needed). With the conclusion of these elections (his
deputies were elected on April 28, 2022), Somalia has legitimate parliamentary bodies
again. This is a real milestone after the country had been on the brink of civil war for
some time.
It remains to be seen whether this also means that a preliminary political decision has
been made for the presidential elections. Sheekh Aadan Madoobe comes from
Jubaland, but belongs to the Rahanweyn clan family. In the sensitively balanced power
system of Somali politics, the Darood and Hawiye clans have so far alternated in the
roles of presidency and prime minister. The role of speaker of the federal parliament,
on the other hand, has fallen to the Rahanweyn clan family. However, the majority of
these clans reside in Southwest State. Their president, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed
(“Laftagareen”), had therefore put forward his own very young and unexperienced
candidate in conjunction with the current presidency and received 98 votes in the first
round of voting. The result on April 27, 2022, could therefore upset the existing balance
of power. Not on clan side grounds, but because the federal state with the most MPs
and the predominant Rahanweyn residence has lost a key position of power. The big
losers in these events are President Farmajo, South-West State President
Laftagareen, and, representing the police and military circles close to the president,
Somalia's police chief, General Abdi Hassan Hijar. It will be interesting to see who will
win the last seats in Hir Shabelle. The seat of former NISA chief Fahad Yassin is still
in dispute there, and it will be exciting to see how the new speaker of the lower house
deals with the 16 MPs from Ceelwaaq. This is because one of the compromises on
April 27, 2022 was that they would not be allowed to vote in the speaker's elections for
the time being. However, these are solvable problems and it can be assumed that there
will still be a complete parliament in April 2022. Then it will become clear whether the
opposition's unity is sufficient to defeat the still large number of supporters for the
presidency and whether the presidency is willing to accept a peaceful transfer of power.
If this is the case, the people of Somalia and especially the inhabitants of Mogadishu
will be the main winners. Because so far, with a great deal of patience and effort, it has
been possible to avoid a violent conflict. This speaks above all for the political actors
of the opposition, who have always kept a cool head despite the many provocations of
the presidency, the shooting of demonstrators, the intimidation attempts, political
assassinations and the aggressive rhetoric of the presidential supporters.