JOURNAL OF
AVIAN BIOLOGY
Article
Survival probability in a small shorebird decreases with the time
an individual carries a tracking device
Veli-Matti Pakanen, Nelli Rönkä, Robert Leslie Thomson, Donald Blomqvist and Kari Koivula
V.-M. Pakanen (https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4838-9927) ✉ (velimatti.pakanen@gmail.com) and D. Blomqvist, Dept of Biological and Environmental
Sciences, Univ. of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden. – V.-M. P. N. Rönkä and K. Koivula, Ecology and Genetics Research Unit, Univ. of Oulu, Oulu,
Finland. – R. L. Thomson, FitzPatrick Inst. of African Ornithology, DST-NRF Centre of Excellence, Univ. of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Journal of Avian Biology
00: 1–6,
2020
2020:
e02555
doi: 10.1111/jav.02555
Subject Editor: Anders P. Tøttrup
Editor-in-Chief: Thomas Alerstam
Accepted 27 July 2020
Effects of tracking devices on survival are generally considered to be small. However,
most studies to date have been conducted over a time-period of only one year, neglecting the possible accumulation of negative effects and consequently stronger negative
impacts on survival when the individuals have carried the tracking devices for longer
periods. We studied the effects of geolocators in a closely monitored and colour-ringed
southern dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii population breeding in Finland. Our capture–
recapture data spans 2002–2018 and includes individual histories of 338 colour-ringed
breeding adult dunlins (the term ‘recapture’ includes resightings of colour-ringed and
individually recognizable birds). These data include 53 adults that were fitted with
leg-flag mounted geolocators in 2013–2014. We followed their fates together with
other colour-ringed birds not equipped with geolocators until 2018. Geolocators were
removed within 1–2 years of attachment or were not removed at all, which allowed
us to examine whether carrying a geolocator reduces survival and whether the reduction in survival becomes stronger when geolocators are carried for more than one year.
We fit multi-state open population capture–recapture models to the encounter history data. When assessing geolocator effects, we accounted for recapture probabilities,
time since marking, and sex and year effects on survival. We found that carrying a
geolocator reduced survival, which contrasts with many studies that examined return
rates after one year. Importantly, survival declined with the time the individual had
carried a geolocator, suggesting that the negative effects accumulate over time. Hence,
the longer monitoring of birds carrying a geolocator may explain the difference from
previous studies. Despite their larger mass, females tended to be more strongly affected
by geolocators than males. Our results warrant caution in conducting tracking studies
and suggest that short-term studies examining return rates may not reveal all possible
effects of tracking devices on survival.
Keywords: capture–recapture, geolocator, migration, survival, wader
Introduction
Technological advances have resulted in multiple types of tracking devices and a multitude of movement studies (McKinnon and Love 2018, Geen et al. 2019). There
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1
may be negative consequences for survival, reproduction
and future population growth for individuals carrying these
devices (Barron et al. 2010, Saraux et al. 2011, Costantini
and Møller 2013, Weiser et al. 2016), However, recent metaanalyses suggest these consequences are small (Bodey et al.
2018, Brlík et al. 2019). Nevertheless, relatively few studies
have examined the effects of tracking devices with capture–
recapture methods or across periods longer than one year (
van Wijk et al. 2015, Morganti et al. 2018, Taff et al. 2018).
This leaves a major gap in our understanding as the negative effects may accumulate and survival may be impacted
more severely when the individuals have carried the tracking devices for longer periods (Wilson and McMahon 2006,
Saraux et al. 2011). Furthermore, effects may be dependent
on sex or traits such as body size. Indeed, smaller and aerial
species are most vulnerable to tracking devices (Bridge et al.
2013, Weiser et al. 2016, Morganti et al. 2018, Brlík et al.
2019), warranting more detailed studies of such species.
Geolocators are the main tracking devices for studying migration of smaller species (Briedis et al. 2018,
Procházka et al. 2018). We deployed geolocators in 2013–
2014 to document migration of a southern dunlin Calidris
alpina schinzii population that has been studied in detail since
2002 (Pakanen et al. 2011, 2015, 2018). Our previous analyses found no strong effects on return rates or reproduction
in the year after deployment in this long-distance migratory
shorebird (Pakanen et al. 2015, Weiser et al. 2016). Here, we
use capture–recapture methods and long-term data collected
since the start of the study until 2018 to re-examine the effect
of geolocators on adult survival and to further test whether
the effect of geolocators on survival increases when birds have
carried them for longer than one year.
Material and methods
Our study population of the southern dunlin breeds on eight
coastal meadows in the Bothnian Bay in Finland (64°50′N,
25°00′E). Due to lack of suitable breeding habitats, this population is confined to these clearly defined habitat patches and
the closest populations are 400 km away. Therefore, extensive
studies of this colour-ringed population allow detailed monitoring of movement and, by recording annual resightings,
reliable examination of survival (see Pakanen et al. 2016,
2017 for more details on field methods).
In 2013 and 2014, we deployed light-level geolocators
(Intigeo-W65A9, Migrate Technology Ltd) with plastic
(Salbex) leg-flags on the tibia of 53 breeding southern dunlins
(Pakanen et al. 2015, 2018). The device including the flag
weighed 0.8 g, which is about 1.5–2.0% (mean mass 46.4
g, SD 3.69) of their body mass. We mounted geolocators
on 30 birds in 2013 (15 males, 15 females), and additionally 23 birds in 2014 (12 males, 11 females). We recaptured
and removed the geolocator for 17 birds after one year, and
for 9 birds after two years. Ten birds seen in 2014 and later
were carrying a geolocator but never recaptured. These birds
were thus equipped with a geolocator and resighted for a
2
time period varying between 2 and 4 years. Birds that carried
geolocators thus included 27 males and 26 females (sex ratio
0.96/1), and colour-ringed birds that never carried geolocators included 138 males and 147 females (sex ratio 0.94/1).
In this study, we used data on individually colour-marked
breeding adults that were collected from 2002 to 2018 from
338 individuals. These included encounter histories from the
53 individuals that carried a geolocator and from 285 individuals that did not carry a geolocator. The individual encounter histories enable the estimation of recapture probabilities
that are used in modelling of survival (Lebreton et al. 1992).
Correcting for recapture probability is important when examining effects of tracking devices because birds with geolocators
may have higher recapture probabilities because they are given
more effort than non-geolocator birds, or they may have lower
recapture rates if geolocators negatively affect breeding probability (van Wijk et al. 2015). We used these individual histories to analyse adult survival in program MARK by fitting
multistate models (White and Burnham 1999, White et al.
2006), which included parameters for survival (Φ), recapture
probabilities (p) and movement between states (ψ). We used
three states; state 1: birds with no geolocator, state 2: birds
carrying a geolocator, state 3: after geolocator was removed.
We assessed goodness of fit using the software U-CARE 2.3.2
(Choquet et al. 2009). The overall test was not statistically significant in either sex (males: χ2 = 29.367, df = 35, p = 0.736;
females: χ2 = 21.095, df = 38, p = 0.988).
Multistate models allowed us to model survival and recapture probabilities for these states, and to test for the effects
of carrying a geolocator. To avoid a large number of models,
we modelled the three parameters in sequence from movement probabilities between states to recapture probabilities,
and finally survival probabilities. We used AIC model selection that was corrected for small sample size (AICc). We considered differences of 2 units to suggest differences in model
support (Burnham and Anderson 2002). We quantified the
relative support for explanatory variables with evidence ratios
that were calculated by comparing Akaike weights (w) of
models with effects included and models without the tracking device effect (w1/w2) (Burnham and Anderson 2002).
We calculated survival estimates by averaging across the estimates derived for models within 2 ≥ ∆AICc units using the
Akaike weights (Burnham and Anderson 2002).
Our starting model structure for movement probabilities
between states (ψ) included only movement probabilities
from state 1 to state 2 and from state 2 to state 3, and thus
required no further modelling. All other movements between
states were not possible and we fixed them as zero. Our starting
model structure for recapture probabilities (p) included status
(three states; see above), sex and time (t; year) and the following
interactions (×); state×sex and sex×time. We modelled recapture probabilities with a set of a priori selected structures, and
found that recapture probabilities varied with sex (females 0.80
± 0.026; males 0.89 ± 0.018) and time (year). The best model
included also state (Supplementary information). Despite the
low support for state (∆AICc = 0.174 over the reduced model;
Supplementary information), we used p(state + sex + t) as the
Table 1. Multistate models examining the effect of geolocators on adult survival of southern dunlin. Φ = survival, p = recapture rate, sex = sex
of the individual; t = time (year); tsm = time since colour ringing; GEOC1 = no-geolocator vs geolocator, GEOC2 = linear effect of the years
an individual had carried a geolocator; Q = quadratic effect; × = interaction, AICc = Akaike’s information criterion; ∆ = AICc(i) − AICc(min);
w = Akaike weight; k = number of parameters. The structure for movement rates (ψ) included only state with movements from state 1 to state
2 and from state 2 to state 3. The structure for recapture rates was p(state + sex + t), where state includes state 1 (no-geolocator), state 2 (geolocator) and state 3 (geolocator removed).
No.
Model for survival (Φ)
Recapture (p)
Movement (ψ)
AICc
∆
w
k
1
2
3
4
5
sex + t + tsm + GEOC2
sex + t + tsm + GEOC1 + GEOC1×sex
sex + t + tsm + GEOC2 + GEOC2Q
sex + t + tsm + GEOC1
sex + t + tsm
state + sex + t
state + sex + t
state + sex + t
state + sex + t
state + sex + t
S1–S2; S2–S3
S1–S2; S2–S3
S1–S2; S2–S3
S1–S2; S2–S3
S1–S2; S2–S3
2013.14
2013.28
2014.48
2014.66
2017.31
0.00
0.14
1.34
1.52
4.17
0.33
0.31
0.17
0.15
0.04
40
41
41
40
39
Results
On the basis of evidence ratios, models that included the geolocator effects were 3.8–8.0 times more supported than the
reduced model (Table 1). The best model included a negative linear effect of the time (i.e. years) a bird had carried
a geolocator (on logit scale from model 1: βGEOC2 = −0.525,
CI −0.928, −0.122; Table 1, Fig. 1; see all coefficients in
Supplementary information). While the quadratic effect was
not strong (Table 1), the decline in survival was evident only
after the birds had carried the geolocator for at least two
years. Model averaged estimates for the year between 2015
and 2016 (during which geolocator data were available) for
males that were colour-ringed three years ago were highest for
a bird that had not carried a geolocator (0.813) and declined
to 0.748 after carrying a geolocator for one year and to 0.581
for birds that carried the geolocator at least 2 years (Fig. 1).
Models with a binary effect of the geolocator (GEOC1)
suggested that carrying a geolocator generally reduced survival (on logit scale from model 4: βGEOC1 = −0.716, CI
−1.344, −0.090). An interaction between sex and geolocator
(GEOC1) received some support, and the model-averaged
1.0
0.8
Adult survival
structure for recapture probabilities when modelling survival
because the model results suggested there may be some differences in recapture probabilities between the states during the
years 2014–2018 (mean; no geolocators male 0.861 ± 0.055
and females 0.750 ± 0.083; geolocator males 0.971 ± 0.014
and females 0.937 ± 0.028; geolocator removed males 0.780
± 0.077 and females 0.638 ± 0.097).
Our model structure for survival probabilities (Φ) always
included sex and time (t; year) and time since marking (tsm;
years since colour ringing). We kept time dependence in survival probabilities in all models to control for possible annual
variation. In addition, we controlled for age effects by including a linear effect of time since colour marking (tsm; note not
geolocator placement) because the age of these birds was not
always known. We first examined whether survival differed
between individuals that did not carry a geolocator and those
from which a geolocator had been removed. There was no evidence of such differences as the reduced model received more
support (Supplementary information). Because there was no
evidence that survival was different between states 1 and 3,
we did not include the state structure in survival, and examined the effect of geolocators on survival using three year-specific individual covariates. We first included the effect of the
geolocator as I) a binary covariate (GEOC1, individual variables: 0 = no geolocator, 1 = geolocator). II) We used linear
effects of the number of years that an individual had carried
a geolocator. The variable included 3 classes (GEOC2, individual variables: 0 = no geolocator, 1 = carried for one year,
2 = pooled class for those that carried 2–5 years). The pooled
class was used to take into account the decreasing amount of
data with increasing years a geolocator was carried. III) We
modelled quadratic effects (i.e. 0, 1, 4) of the years the birds
carried geolocators to detect a possible non-linear relationship. In each of these covariates, individuals from whom the
geolocators were removed received a covariate value of 0 for
the following years after geolocator removal. Due to limited
data, we examined interactions between sex and geolocator
effects only with the binary variable of the geolocator effect.
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
≥2
Years of carrying a geolocator
Figure 1. Adult survival of male southern dunlins (95% confidence
intervals in dashed lines) in relation to the number of years they had
carried a geolocator. Class 0 depicts survival for birds that did not
carry a geolocator, 1 depicts survival of birds that carried a geolocator for one year and 2 depicts survival of birds that carried a geolocator for 2 years or more (pooled class). An age-specific change in
survival was controlled using time since colour-ringing. These estimates were calculated for birds that were colour-ringed three years
ago using model averaging models 1 and 3 (Table 1) for years
2015–2016.
3
No geolocator
Geolocator
Adult survival
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
Males
Females
Figure 2. Adult survival (±SE) of male and female southern dunlin
that carried a geolocator versus those that did not (binary variable).
Estimates were calculated by model averaging models 2 and 4
(Table 1) for year 2015–2016 and for birds with time since colourringing of three years.
survival rates suggest that females were affected more than
males (Fig. 2; model 2). Mean adult survival across all years
for birds that did not carry a geolocator was 0.805 ± 0.019
for males and 0.759 ± 0.022 for females.
Discussion
Our long-term data analysed with capture–recapture methods that control for recapture probabilities show that carrying
geolocators for multiple years reduces survival of the southern dunlin, a small migratory wader. This is congruent with
studies investigating effects of other kinds of tracking devices
(Saraux et al. 2011), but also a passerine study using geolocators (Taff et al. 2018). This is crucial information because
our previous results from the southern dunlin (Pakanen et al.
2015), and the general view of impacts caused by leg flag
mounted geolocators obtained from meta-analyses, suggest
that carrying a geolocator for one year does not reduce survival (Weiser et al. 2016, Brlík et al. 2019). When examining
one-year return rates, Weiser et al. (2016) showed negative
effects in only two out of 23 (sub)species of shorebirds. Our
results suggest, however, that short-term studies measuring return rates may not provide a full spectrum of possible
effects caused by tracking devices.
Our most important finding was that survival decreased
with the time a bird had carried the geolocator. This pattern
may explain why studies examining return rates over only one
year rarely find survival costs of carrying geolocators. The ability to withstand the negative impacts of tracking devices may
decrease with time (Wilson and McMahon 2006). Tracking
devices may increase stress, reduce energy reserves, increase
energy expenditure of flight and alter foraging behaviour
(Gales et al. 1990, Weimerskirch et al. 2000, Hawkins 2004,
Navarro et al. 2008, Barron et al. 2010, Elliott et al. 2012,
4
Vandenabeele et al. 2012, Bodey et al. 2018). These effects
may accumulate and reduce long-term viability by reducing
the ability to escape predators (Burns and Ydenberg 2002)
or by impairing resistance to diseases (Siegel 1980, Klasing
1998). Alternatively, carrying the devices can make survival
through periods of tougher environmental conditions less
likely, which individuals will eventually encounter (Bro et al.
1999). Furthermore, the physical damage and abrasion
caused by the device may increase with time. After removing the geolocators, we observed somewhat thinner and softer
skin on their tibia (Pakanen et al. 2015). Therefore, it is possible that the plastic flag system to which the geolocator was
attached can alter the skin and make it more susceptible to
injury or infection. However, there was no evidence that this
was more severe in birds that had carried the geolocator for
two years compared to only one year.
The mechanisms through which geolocators reduced survival had a stronger effect on the survival of females. A similar
pattern in barn swallows Hirundo rustica was likely caused
by morphological differences (wing length; Scandolara et al.
2014). In our case, the stronger effect on females is surprising given their larger size (females: 46.2 g; males: 43.9
g; Pakanen et al. 2015) which suggests that they should be
better able to cope with a geolocator (Pakanen et al. 2015,
Weiser et al. 2016). It seems, therefore, that some parts of the
life history may differ between males and females. Females
may be physiologically more strained than males during and
after the breeding season as they lay eggs that comprise a large
portion of their mass (one brood weighs ca 80% of female
mass). In our study area, southern dunlins lay replacement
clutches (i.e. renest) readily after losing their nest to flooding (Pakanen et al. 2014). In 2015, females were forced to
renest multiple times as the rising sea water destroyed their
nests several times during the laying season. Multiple renesting may cause a substantial increase in energy expenditure via
egg laying (Monaghan and Nager 1997), and females may
therefore be in a poor condition at the start of migration.
Interestingly, females also depart on migration earlier than
males, leaving less time for preparation (Pakanen et al. 2018).
Therefore, the additional energy expenditure and stress caused
by a tracking device during migration may be fatal. It should
be noted that birds from 2015 included a large portion of the
individuals that carried geolocators for longer than one year,
because they were not caught in that year due to the repeated
floods. This could be the kind of difficult environmental conditions in which birds carrying geolocators incur more costs.
Permanent emigration outside our study area is an unlikely
explanation because there is little breeding habitat elsewhere
within the Bothnian Bay area (Pakanen et al. 2017), which is
one of the advantages of studying survival in this population.
We showed that tracking devices can have cumulative
effects on survival of a small shorebird (45 g) even though
the device weighed only 1.5–2.0% of their mass. With similar relative loads, van Wijk et al. (2015) found no detectable effects of geolocators on survival of hoopoes Upupa
epops when analysing long-term data with capture–recapture
methods. The difference may be due to different migratory
behaviour as hoopoes use multiple stopovers (Bächler et al.
2010, van Wijk et al. 2015), whereas southern dunlins
may fly up to 4500 km nonstop during autumn migration (Pakanen et al. 2018). Our results suggest that such
a relatively small load may not be sustainable in the long
term, especially when facing adverse conditions. Mortality
effects of tracking devices are smaller with lighter devices
(Scandolara et al. 2014, Rodríguez‐Ruiz et al. 2016), hence
tracking devices may need to weigh less than 1% of the bird
mass to not have any negative effects (Bodey et al. 2018). As
most mortality costs are subject only to individuals that are
not caught after the first year, we recommend that the detrimental effects of tagging are avoided by developing attachment methods that are automatically released after one year,
e.g. biodegradable materials. Our results raise concerns about
the long-term consequences of tracking devices in the study
of bird migration (Bridge et al. 2013, Costantini and Møller
2013, Scandolara et al. 2014), and warrant more research
extending over one year, including sex-specific differences, to
verify impact of long-term tracking research on these animals
(McMahon Clive et al. 2012). Studies examining long-term
effects of harness-mounted tracking devices on species with
different migration strategies can provide valuable information about alternative attachment methods for long-term
studies.
Acknowledgements – This study was funded by the Academy of Finland
(278759), the Faculty of Natural Sciences of the Univ. of Oulu,
the Emil Aaltonen foundation and the Univ. of Oulu Scholarship
Foundation and Stiftelsen Olle Engkvist Byggmästare. We thank
Vojtech Brlík, Will Creswell and two anonymous referees for helpful
comments on the manuscript. This study complied with national law
and was conducted under permission from the regional Centre for
Economic Development, Transport and the Environment (license
numbers POPELY/213/07.01/2013; POPELY/15/07.01/2013). The
authors declare no conflict of interests.
Transparent Peer Review
The peer review history for this article is available at https://
publons.com/publon/10.1111/jav.02555
Data deposition
Data will be available from the Dryad Digital Repository:
<https://dx.doi.org/.6m905qfxp> (Pakanen et al. 2020).
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