Applied Bayesian Statistics

Given the reproducibility crisis (or replication crisis), more psychologists and social-cultural scientists are getting involved with Bayesian inference. Therefore, the current article provides a brief overview of programs (or software) and steps to conduct Bayesian data analysis in social sciences.

The theory of dual numerical means of random and experienced variables is briefly described in the framework of the new theory of experience and the chance that arises as an axiomatic synthesis of two dual theories — the Kolmogorov theory of probability and the theory of believability. A new term is introduced for the numerical mean of the experienced variable — mathematical reflection, which is dual to the mathematical expectation of a random variable within the framework of the new theory. The basic properties and examples of dual numerical means are considered.

For a long time, one of my dreams was to describe the nature of uncertainty axiomatically, and it looks like I've finally done it in my co∼eventum mechanics! Now it remains for me to explain to everyone the co∼eventum mechanics in the most approachable way. This is what I'm trying to do in this work. The co∼eventum mechanics is another name for the co∼event theory, i.e., for the theory of experience and chance which I axiomatized in 2016 [1, 2]. In my opinion, this name best reflects the co∼event-based idea of the new dual theory of uncertainty, which combines the probability theory as a theory of chance, with its dual half, the believability theory as a theory of experience. In addition, I like this new name indicates a direct connection between the co∼event theory and quantum mechanics, which is intended for the physical explanation and description of the conict between quantum observers and quantum observations [4]. Since my theory of uncertainty satises the Kolmogorov axioms of probability theory, to explain this co∼eventum mechanics I will use a way analogous to the already tested one, which explains the theory of probability as a theory of chance describing the results of a random experiment. The simplest example of a random experiment in probability theory is the " tossing a coin ". Therefore, I decided to use this the simplest random experiment itself, as well as the two its analogies: the " "flipping a coin " and the " spinning a coin " to explain the co∼eventum mechanics, which describes the results of a combined experienced random experiment. I would like to resort to the usual for the probability theory " coin-based " analogy to explain (and first of all for myself) the logic of the co∼eventum mechanics as a logic of experience and chance. Of course, this analogy one may seem strange if not crazy. But I did not come up with a better way of tying the explanations of the logic of the co∼eventum mechanics to the coin-based explanations that are commonly used in probability theory to explain at least for myself the logic of the chance through a simple visual " coin-based " model that clarifies what occurs as a result of a combined experienced random experiment in which the experience of observer faces the chance of observation. I hope this analogy can be useful not only for me in understanding the co∼eventum mechanics.

You yourself, or what is the same, your experience is such ``coin'' that, while you aren't questioned, it rotates all the time in ``free flight''. And only when you answer the question the ``coin'' falls on one of the sides: ``Yes'' or ``No'' with the believability that your experience tells you.

Eventology of multivariate statistics
Eventology and mathematical eventology
Philosophical eventology and philosophy of probability
Practical eventology
Eventology of safety
Eventological economics and psychology
Mathematics in the humanities, socio-economic and natural sciences
Financial and actuarial mathematics
Multivariate statistical analysis
Multivariate complex analysis
Decision-making under risk and uncertainty
Risk measurement and risk models
Theory of fuzzy events and generalized theory of uncertainty
System analysis and events management

EEC'2016 ~ workshop on axiomatizing experience and chance, and Hilbert's sixth problem

With topics from quantum physics, probability and believability to economics, sociology, and psychology, the workshop will be intended for an interdisciplinary discussion on mathematical theories of experience and chance. Topics of discussion include the results, thoughts, and ideas on the axiomatization of the eventological theory of experience and chance in the framework of the decision of Hilbert sixth problem.
Eventology of experience and chance
Believability theory and statistics of experience
Probability theory and statistics of chance
Axiomatizing experience and chance

Historical Linguistics studies language change over time. If a group of languages derives from changes to a common ancestor language (proto-language) then they are said to be related. Whenever there exists a lack of written records for an ancestor language, a relevant question in Historical Linguistics is to determine whether two languages are related.

The gold standard for finding these relationships is the Comparative Method. Despite the success of the Comparative Method in finding language relationships, it suffers from at least two limitations. First, the Comparative Method involves the manual comparison of various features from a group of languages. Second, the Comparative Method doesn't provide a numerical measure of evidence for how much the database under consideration corroborates an hypothesis.

Given the above limitations, the field of Computational Historical Linguistics is presented as a complement to the Comparative Method. This field has experienced a recent expansion with the adaptation of methods from biological phylogenetics. Nevertheless, there is debate whether the evolutionary models used in phylogenetics also incorporate valid linguistical assumptions.

In this thesis, I propose a new (probability) model for the evolution of the phonology of languages. A relevant innovation of this model is that it captures the regularity of sound changes. I also describe the software that I created in order to assist in incorporating into the model a linguist's expert knowledge. I show that the knowledge obtained in this way agrees with qualitative statements known to linguists. Finally, I present a new algorithm used to compute the probability of linguistic hypotheses regarding language relationships and the occurence of regular sound changes. The main problem that this algorithm overcomes is that it efficiently explores
the possible regular sound changes, mutations in languages that simultaneously affect several words. In order to overcome this challange, I present a new variant of Nested Sequential Monte Carlo that is used to explore the large space of language relationships and regular sound changes. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first algorithm that can perform joint inference on regular sound changes and evolutionary trees. I show that this algorithm is a special case of Sequential Importance Resampling.

We exist in the world of uncertainties.
Any uncertainty always arises from a conflict of experience and chance, more precisely, from a conflict between the observer's experience and the chance observation. In other words, this indivisible pair, ``experience and chance'', is the source of any uncertainty.
Other sources of uncertainty simply do not exist.
A theory that describes this conflict strictly mathematically is the new theory, called theory of co~events, or the theory of experience and chance. Now we can say that this theory is a theory of uncertainty in its broadest sense.

The eventology approach gave impetus to the development of a theory that turned out to be broader than the theory of probabilities.
This new theory is a dual combination of two theories - Kolmogorov's theory of probabilities of ket-events (k-e.'s) and its dual reflection - a new theory of believabilities of bra-events (b-e.'s). Today, the theory of co~events has a strict axiomatics, in which Kolmogorov k-e.'s describing the future case of observation are dually reflected in b-e.'s describing the past experience of the observer, and a co~event is defined as a measurable binary relation on the Cartesian product: ``a set of bra-events X a set of terraced ket-events''.

The book about the eventology ~ a science about events and its applications to problems of management of sets of events ~ a new direction in philosophy, mathematics and event management (see English version of the book: https://www.academia.edu/38605343/).
This book outlines ideas that inspired me while I was trying to build a new event science, eventology. Not each of these ideas was developed, but all of them inspired me in the construction of eventology, and then in the discovery of a revolutionary theory of experience and chance, co~eventum mechanics. (see, for example, https://www.academia.edu/34357251,
https://www.academia.edu/34373279,
https://www.academia.edu/34390291,
https://www.academia.edu/38368776,
https://www.academia.edu/38154263 and so on).

Faunal assemblages offer rich data for exploring domestication, subsistence, ritual practice, and political economy. Issues of equifinality, however, frequently complicate interpretations because different agents and processes may create similar archaeological signatures. Analysts are often forced to make interpretations based on qualitative observations, which can be difficult to justify or replicate. I present an alternative method for classifying Andean assemblages by using ethnographic, ethnohistoric, and archaeological data to construct a Bayesian network model. The model is assessed using specifically constructed test datasets and archaeological case studies. Bayesian models can lead to explicit and quantifiable probabilistic interpretations of faunal assemblages.

The reliability of a radiocarbon date depends in part on the degree of precision and accuracy of the measurement. While analytical precision and accuracy can be improved by careful sample cleaning procedures and high laboratory standards, accuracy also depends upon the certainty to which the sample can be attributed to a specific material culture or event in the past. This might be questionable when based only on partial archaeological information. As a consequence, it is very difficult to date clear-cut chronological transitions within specific periods. This issue is particularly apparent in the case of Mediterranean Iron Age chronology, where 2 somewhat different perspectives are proposed, the “High Chronology” and the “Low Chronology,” which differ by ~50 yr. Here, we present the preliminary results of an ongoing project that aims to characterize Iron Age archaeological contexts from the eastern Mediterranean, and to identify those contexts that are suitable for dating, in order to improve the accuracy of 14C dates. This study involves the analysis of sediments by means of FTIR spectrometry, soil micromorphology, phytolith and phosphate extraction, all of which provide insights into the site-formation and postdepositional processes at the different sites under investigation. These techniques, applied at Tell es-Safi/Gath (Israel), enabled us to better identify a secure context for dating.

This article is about the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of Pareto distribution and its application on failure data modelling. It also studies the use of prior conjugate of gamma family to the parameters of interest. The exact estimations of credible sets for failure rates are obtained from real and simulated data by using MCMC. The Bayesian estimation of the failure rate by gamma-Pareto model found to be robust in failure time modelling.

The logic of uncertainty is not the logic of experience and as well as it is not the logic of chance. It is the logic of experience and chance. Experience and chance are two inseparable poles. These are two dual reflections of one essence, which is called co∼event. The theory of experience and chance is the theory of co∼events. To study the co∼events, it is not enough to study the experience and to study the chance. For this, it is necessary to study the experience and chance as a single entire, a co∼event. In other words, it is necessary to study their interaction within a co∼event. The new co∼event axiomatics and the theory of co∼events following from it were created precisely for these purposes. In this work, I am going to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new theory of co∼events in a studying the logic of uncertainty. I will do this by the example of a co∼event splitting of the logic of the Bayesian scheme, which has a long history of fierce debates between Bayesionists and frequentists. I hope the logic of the theory of experience and chance will make its modest contribution to the application of these old dual debaters.

Keywords: Eventology, event, probability, probability theory, Kolmogorov’s axiomatics, experience, chance, cause, consequence, co∼event, set of co∼events, bra-event, set of bra-events, ket-event, set of ket-events, believability, certainty, believability theory, certainty theory, theory of co∼events, theory of experience and chance, co∼event dualism, co∼event axiomatics, logic of uncertainty, logic of experience and chance, logic of cause and consequence, logic of the past and the future, Bayesian scheme.

Practitioners and construction management researchers lack believable and practical methods to assess the value proposition of emerging methods such as Virtual Design and Construction (VDC) including understanding how different levels of implementation affect its benefits. Furthermore, current methods of understanding VDC implementation and benefits cannot be updated easily to incorporate new data. This paper presents a Bayesian framework to predict benefits from application of Virtual Design and Construction (VDC) given data about its implementation. We analyzed data from 40 projects that performed some formal modeling of the project scope and/or the construction process. The analysis suggests that more extensive or higher levels of VDC implementation lead to higher project benefits. We explain the use of a Bayesian framework as an alternative to the application of classical probability theory to construction management research, how we used it to interpret data about VDC practice and outcomes, our finding that benefits have strong positive contingent correlation with the level of VDC implemented on projects, and our suggestion to use the method to update conclusions about benefits given changing data about implementation and outcomes.

Probability theory and statistical evidence can be very helpful to the law; but they can also be misused. Haack explains why by reference to both civil (toxic-tort) and criminal cases.

Presented at the University of Girona, March 2020, on the occasion of Haack's being awarded the Premio internacional de cultura juridica.

New in the probability theory and eventology theory, the concept of Kopula (eventological copula) is introduced. The theorem on the characterization of the sets of events by Kopula is proved, which serves as the eventological pre-image of the well-known Sclar's theorem on copulas (1959). The Kopulas of doublets and triplets of events are given, as well as of some N-sets of events. For further development of this topic, see my later works: https://www.academia.edu/34390291/, https://www.academia.edu/34373279/, https://www.academia.edu/34357251/

Keywords: eventology, probability, Kolmogorov event, event, set of events, Kopula (eventological copula), Kopula characterizing a set of events.

If you are interested in my work, and you have the opportunity to provide financial support for the publication of my book "Theory of experience and of chance as a theory of being," I ask you to use my PayPal account: paypal.me/EventologyTheory

(Source Wikipedia) Functionalism has held a dominant position among contemporary sociological theories for several years.

https://it.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funzionalismo_(antropologia)

In functionalism, society is conceived as a set of interconnected parts.  None of them, therefore, can be understood in isolation from the others, but only in its context.  The relationships between the parts of society are functional, that is, each element performs a particular task which, combined with all the others, helps to create and maintain balance and social order.  Therefore, for functionalism, there is a state of equilibrium in society that occurs when each part performs its task correctly.  For this reason we can say that functionalism is based on the model of the organic system that we find in the biological sciences.  For example Durkheim, one of the founders of this theory, while never referring to the term "functionalism", focuses on the concept of "function" understood as an activity aimed at satisfying the general needs of the social organism, understood as an organism sui generis, endowed with an autonomous nature.

Look also at this entry “considering”, that is among the study topics that Academia has included in my profile, that I didn't even know what functionalism was: there is always the incompleteness of Gödel or local observation in quantum superposition (also as regards the so-called paradoxes that are only "verbal predicates'' BUT not yet "real") which then causes the collapse of formation into "history".  Everything can be "understood" and conveyed only through the "technological" triangulation as a third eye of which we do not have "naturally" but we obtain it "evolutionarily".  Technology is therefore the mean of conscious evolutionary consciousness PaleontoLogicaMente ISOCIC.  Since you cannot be everywhere (with your condensed mass determining and, simultaneously / instantaneously, influenced by the illusion of space-time) you have to be somewhere but knowing, “consciously”, that it is not an option nor a choice but an intrinsic postulate, a conditio sine qua non of a “relativistic” universe, in which everything has an impact on everything in the ether of the eternal consciousness ...

On the other hand, you have a "vague" logic (like the Bayesian one) that takes into account the adaptation to the environment in the decision-making process: Tarski and Post overcoming Russell Vs. Wittgenstein's “incomplete” dualism on syntax versus predicate logic matured with the cathartic revelation of Gödel (ref. Odifreddi).  BUT now everything must be wrapped in the management of the "superposition" (as for the so-called paradoxes which are only "venal predicates'' BUT still not "real") of the inertial observer of quantum mechanics within a re-foundation of 3d logic .. .

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic


(Fonte Wikipedia) Il funzionalismo ha ricoperto per diversi anni una posizione dominante tra le teorie sociologiche contemporanee.

https://it.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funzionalismo_(antropologia)

Nel funzionalismo, la società è concepita come un insieme di parti interconnesse.  Nessuna di esse, quindi, può essere intesa isolatamente dalle altre, ma solo nel suo contesto.  Le relazioni tra le parti della società sono funzionali, cioè ogni elemento svolge un compito particolare che, unito a tutti gli altri, aiuta a creare e mantenere l'equilibrio e l'ordine sociale.  Pertanto, per il funzionalismo, esiste uno stato di equilibrio nella società che si verifica quando ciascuna parte svolge correttamente il proprio compito.  Per questo possiamo dire che il funzionalismo si basa sul modello del sistema organico che troviamo nelle scienze biologiche.  Ad esempio Durkheim, uno dei fondatori di questa teoria, pur non facendo mai riferimento al termine "funzionalismo", si concentra sul concetto di "funzione" intesa come attività volta a soddisfare i bisogni generali dell'organismo sociale, inteso come organismo sui generis, dotato di carattere autonomo.

Guarda anche questa voce che è tra gli argomenti di studio, che Academia ha inserito nel mio profilo, “considerando” che non sapevo nemmeno cosa fosse il funzionalismo: c'è sempre l’incompletezza di Gödel o l'osservazione locale in sovrapposizione quantistica (anche per quanto riguarda i cosiddetti paradossi che sono solo "predicati verbali" MA non ancora "reali") che poi provoca il collasso della formazione nella “storia”. Il tutto può essere “compreso” e veicolato solo attraverso la triangolazione “tecnologica” come un terzo occhio di cui non disponiamo “naturalMente” ma ce lo procuriamo “evolutivaMente. È quindi la tecnologia il mezzo della coscienza evolutiva cosciente PaleontoLogicaMente ISOCIC. Dal momento che non puoi essere ovunque (con la tua massa condensata che determina e, simultaneamente/istantaneamente, influenzata dall'illusione dello spazio-tempo) devi stare da qualche parte ma sapendo, “consapevolmente”, che non è un’opzione o scelta ma un postulato imprescindibile, una conditio sine qua non di un universo “relativistico”, in cui tutto ha impatto su tutto nell'etere della coscienza eterna...

D'altra parte, hai una logica “vaga” (come quella bayesiana) che tiene conto dell'adattamento all'ambiente nel processo decisionale: Tarski e Post che superano l’”incompleto” dualismo di Russell Vs. Wittgenstein sulla sintassi verso la logica predicativa, maturato con rivelazione catartica di Gödel (cfr.Odifreddi). MA ora tutto deve essere avvolto nella gestione della “sovrapposizione” (come per i cd paradossi che sono solo “predicato venali” MA ancora non “reali”)  dell'osservatore inerziale della meccanica quantistica all'interno di una rifondazione della logica 3d...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic

This essay compares and contrasts Shakespeare's exploration of risk, chance, and uncertainty in Othello and Macbeth. In Othello, Shakespeare explores chance by asking: "How high a degree of probability must one attain to have a sufficient basis for judgment?" He is examining the idea of moral certainty. In Macbeth, Shakespeare explores chance by dramatizing two low-probability, high-consequence events: Birnam Wood and the encounter with a man not of woman born. To explore chance, risk, and uncertainty in these two plays, I will apply the tools of probability theory: Bayes' Theorem, Littlewood's Law, significance tests, and black swan theory. The intersection between probability theory and theatre, though in an incipient state, is a rich ground for further exploration.

We composed an R-based script for Image-based Bayesian random-effect meta-analysis of previous fMRI studies. It meta-analyzes second-level test results of the studies and calculates Bayes Factors indicating whether the effect in each voxel is significantly different from zero. We compared results from Bayesian and classical meta-analyses by examining the overlap between the result from each method and that created by NeuroSynth as the target. As an example, we analyzed previous fMRI studies focusing on working memory extracted from NeuroSynth. The result from our Bayesian method showed a greater overlap than the classical method. In addition, Bayes Factors proved a better way to examine whether the evidence supported hypotheses than p-values. Given these, Bayesian meta-analysis provides neuroscientists with a better meta-analysis method for fMRI studies given the improved overlap with the NeuroSynth result and the practical and epistemological value of Bayes Factors that can directly test presence of an effect.

Eventology of multivariate statistics
Eventology and mathematical eventology
Philosophical eventology and philosophy of probability
Practical eventology
Eventology of safety
Eventological economics and psychology
Mathematics in the humanities, socio-economic and natural sciences
Financial and actuarial mathematics
Multivariate statistical analysis
Multivariate complex analysis
Decision-making under risk and uncertainty
Risk measurement and risk models
Theory of fuzzy events and generalized theory of uncertainty
System analysis and events management

EEC'2016 ~ workshop on axiomatizing experience and chance, and Hilbert's sixth problem

With topics from quantum physics, probability and believability to economics, sociology and psychology, the workshop will be intended for an interdisciplinary discussion on mathematical theories of experience and chance. Topics of discussion include the results, thoughts and ideas on axiomatization of the eventological theory of experience and chance in the framework of the decision of Hilbert sixth problem.
Eventology of experience and chance
Beleivability theory and statistics of experience
Probability theory and statistics of chance
Axiomatizing experience and chance

Eventology of multivariate statistics
Eventology and mathematical eventology
Philosophical eventology and philosophy of probability
Practical eventology
Eventology of safety
Eventological economics and psychology
Mathematics in the humanities, socio-economic and natural sciences
Financial and actuarial mathematics
Multivariate statistical analysis
Multivariate complex analysis
Decision-making under risk and uncertainty
Risk measurement and risk models
Theory of fuzzy events and generalized theory of uncertainty
System analysis and events management

Synthetic biology is a cutting-edge area of research that holds the promise of unprecedented health benefits. However, in tandem with these large prospective benefits, synthetic biology projects entail a risk of catastrophic consequences whose severity may exceed that of most ordinary human undertakings. This is due to the peculiar nature of synthetic biology as a ‘threshold technology’ which opens doors to opportunities and applications that are essentially unpredictable. Fears about these potentially unstoppable consequences have led to declarations from civil society groups calling for the use of a precautionary principle to regulate the field. Moreover, the principle is prevalent in law and international agreements. Despite widespread political recognition of a need for caution, the precautionary principle has been extensively criticized as a guide for regulatory policy. We examine a central objection to the principle: that its application entails crippling inaction and incoherence, since whatever action one takes there is always a chance that some highly improbable cataclysm will occur. In response to this difficulty, which we call the ‘precautionary paradox,’ we outline a deliberative means for arriving at threshold of probability below which potential dangers can be disregarded. In addition, we describe a Bayesian mechanism with which to assign probabilities to harmful outcomes. We argue that these steps resolve the paradox. The rehabilitated PP can thus provide a viable policy option to confront the uncharted waters of synthetic biology research.

The relative chronology of the Aegean Iron Age is robust. It is based on minute stylistic changes in the Submycenaean, Protogeometric and Geometric styles and their sub-phases. Yet, the absolute chronology of the time-span between the final stages of Late Helladic IIIC in the late second millennium BCE and the archaic colonization of Italy and Sicily toward the end of the 8th century BCE lacks archaeological contexts that can be directly related to events carrying absolute dates mentioned in Egyptian/Near Eastern historical sources, or to well-dated Egyptian/Near Eastern rulers. The small number of radiocarbon dates available for this time span is not sufficient to establish an absolute chronological sequence. Here we present a new set of short-lived radiocarbon dates from the sites of Lefkandi, Kalapodi and Corinth in Greece. We focus on the crucial transition from the Submycenaean to the Protogeometric periods. This transition is placed in the late 11th century BCE according to the Conventional Aegean Chronology and in the late 12th century BCE according to the High Aegean Chronology. Our results place it in the second half of the 11th century BCE.

Recent debates about the conventional traditional threshold used in the fields of neuroscience and psychology, namely P < 0.05, have spurred researchers to consider alternative ways to analyze fMRI data. A group of methodologists and statisticians have considered Bayesian inference as a candidate methodology. However, few previous studies have attempted to provide end users of fMRI analysis tools, such as SPM 12, with practical guidelines about how to conduct Bayesian inference. In the present study, we aim to demonstrate how to utilize Bayesian inference, Bayesian second-level inference in particular, implemented in SPM 12 by analyzing fMRI data available to public via NeuroVault. In addition, to help end users understand how Bayesian inference actually works in SPM 12, we examine outcomes from Bayesian second-level inference implemented in SPM 12 by comparing them with those from classical second-level inference. Finally, we provide practical guidelines about how to set the parameters for Bayesian inference and how to interpret the results, such as Bayes factors, from the inference. We also discuss the practical and philosophical benefits of Bayesian inference and directions for future research.

The aim of the paper is the axiomatic justification of the theory of experience and chance, one of the dual halves of which is the Kolmogorov probability theory. The author's main idea was the natural inclusion of Kolmogorov's axiomatics of probability theory in a number of general concepts of the theory of experience and chance. The analogy between the measure of a set and the probability of an event has become clear for a long time. This analogy also allows further evolution: the measure of a set is completely analogous to the believability of an event. In order to postulate the theory of experience and chance on the basis of this analogy, you just need to add to the Kolmogorov probability theory its dual reflection - the believability theory, so that the theory of experience and chance could be postulated as the certainty (believability-probability)  theory on the Cartesian product of the probability and believability spaces, and the central concept of the theory is the new notion of co~event as a measurable binary relation on the Cartesian product of sets of elementary incomes and elementary outcomes. Attempts to build the foundations of the theory of experience and chance from this general point of view are unknown to me, and the whole range of ideas presented here has not yet acquired popularity even in a narrow circle of specialists; in addition, there was still no complete system of the postulates of the theory of experience and chance free from unnecessary complications. Postulating the theory of experience and chance can be carried out in different ways, both in the choice of axioms and in the choice of basic concepts and relations. If one tries to achieve the possible simplicity of both the system of axioms and the theory constructed from it, then it is hardly possible to suggest anything other than axiomatization of concepts co~event and its certainty (believability-probability). The main result of this work is the axiom of co~event, intended for the sake of constructing a theory formed by dual theories of believabilities and probabilities, each of which itself is postulated by its own Kolmogorov system of axioms. Of course, other systems of postulating the theory of experience and chance can be imagined, however, in this work, a preference is given to a system of postulates that is able to describe in the most simple manner the results of what I call an experienced-random experiment.

Keywords: Eventology, event, co~event, experience, chance, to experience, to happen, to occur, theory of experience and chance, theory of co~events, axiom of co~event, probability, believability, certainty (believability-probability), probability theory, believability theory, certainty theory.

If you are interested in my work, and you have the opportunity to provide financial support for the publication of my book "Theory of experience and of chance as a theory of being," I ask you to use my PayPal account: paypal.me/EventologyTheory
.

The Ministry of Social Development in Mexico is in charge of creating and assigning social programmes targeting specific needs in the population for the improvement of quality of life. To better target the social programmes, the Ministry is aimed to find clusters of households with the same needs based on demographic characteristics as well as poverty conditions of the household. Available data consists of continuous, ordinal, and nominal variables and the observations are not iid but come from a survey sample based on a complex design. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model that jointly models this mixed scale data and accommodates for the different sampling probabilities. The performance of the model is assessed via simulated data. A full analysis of socioeconomic conditions in households in the State of Mexico is presented.

Attention-Deficit Hyperactive Disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common mental health disorders amongst school-aged children with an estimated prevalence of 5% in the global population (American Psychiatric Association, 2013). Stimulants, particularly methylphenidate (MPH), are the first-line option in the treatment of ADHD (Reeves and Schweitzer, 2004; Dopheide and Pliszka, 2009) and are prescribed to an increasing number of children and adolescents in the US and the UK every year (Safer et al., 1996; McCarthy et al., 2009), though recent studies suggest that this is tailing off, e.g., Holden et al. (2013). Around 70% of children demonstrate a clinically significant treatment response to stimulant medication (Spencer et al., 1996; Schachter et al., 2001; Swanson et al., 2001; Barbaresi et al., 2006). However, it is unclear which patient characteristics may moderate treatment effectiveness. As such, most existing research has focused on investigating univariate or multivariate corre...

In this paper, we discuss the benefits of and how to utilize Bayesian statistics in studies of moral education. To demonstrate concrete examples of the applications of Bayesian statistics to studies of moral education, we reanalyzed two datasets previously collected: one small dataset collected from a moral educational intervention experiment, and one big dataset from a large-scale Defining Issues Test-2 survey. Results suggest that Bayesian analysis of datasets collected from moral educational studies can provide additional useful statistical information, particularly that associated with the strength of evidence supporting alternative hypotheses, which has not been provided by the classical frequentist approach focusing on P-values. Finally, we introduce several practical guidelines pertaining to how to utilize Bayesian statistics, including the utilization of newly developed free statistical software, JASP, and thresholding based on Bayes Factors, to scholars in the field of mora...

The main theorem of the games theory of random coalitions is reformulated in the random set language which generalizes the classical maximin theorem but unlike it defines a coalition imputation also. The theorem about maximin random coalitions has been introduced as a ...

The logic of uncertainty is not the logic of experience and as well as it is not the logic of chance. It is the logic of experience and chance. Experience and chance are two inseparable poles. These are two dual reflections of one essence, which is called co∼event. The theory of experience and chance is the theory of co∼events. To study the co∼events, it is not enough to study the experience and to study the chance. For this, it is necessary to study the experience and chance as a single entire, a co∼event. In other words, it is necessary to study their interaction within a co∼event. The new co∼event axiomatics and the theory of co∼events following from it were created precisely for these purposes. In this work, I am going to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new theory of co∼events in a studying the logic of uncertainty. I will do this by the example of a co∼event splitting of the logic of the Bayesian scheme, which has a long history of fierce debates between Bayesionists and frequentists. I hope the logic of the theory of experience and chance will make its modest contribution to the application of these old dual debaters.

Keywords: Eventology, event, probability, probability theory, Kolmogorov’s axiomatics, experience, chance, cause, consequence, co∼event, set of co∼events, bra-event, set of bra-events, ket-event, set of ket-events, believability, certainty, believability theory, certainty theory, theory of co∼events, theory of experience and chance, co∼event dualism, co∼event axiomatics, logic of uncertainty, logic of experience and chance, logic of cause and consequence, logic of the past and the future, Bayesian scheme.

We introduce the set-theoretic language for the element-set labelling a Cartesian product by measurable binary relations intended for the labelling, or for the naming of parts and details of the construction that we are going to propose in the theory of experience and chance, or the theory of co~events that serve as mathematical models of events as dual pairs. Before you start working in a set-theoretic space whose objects of interest are simultaneously the elements of space, the sets of elements, and the sets of subsets of elements, it is necessary to stock up some system of «coordinates» suitable for a labelling the space itself, and its parts.

Keywords: eventology, theory of experience and chance, theory of co~events, measurable binary relation, event, co~event, experience, chance.

If you are interested in my work, and you have the opportunity to provide financial support for the publication of my book "Theory of experience and chance as a theory of being," I ask you to use my PayPal account: paypal.me/EventologyTheory

This study demonstrates the use of Bayesian independent samples t-test to illustrate gender disparity in job satisfaction. Results from this state-wide study involving over 4000 employees in private companies in Sarawak, Malaysia shows male employees are generally more satisfied in job satisfaction as compared to their female counterparts. This finding casts doubt on the contented female worker paradox, which refers to the notion that although women received fewer job-related benefits in the workplace, they are just as satisfied (or more satisfied) with their jobs. Poor reproducibility of the findings is causing more confusion on gender disparity in job satisfaction. Frequentist approaches have dominated the field of Psychology thus far. Prior researches on gender disparity were centred mainly based on p-values and null hypothesis significant testing (NHST). Instead of making an inference based on a cut-off value of 0.05, it is more intuitive and convincing to illustrate the weight of the evidence favouring a given hypothesis using likelihood ratio of one hypothesis to the other.

Accurate knowledge of dew point pressure is important in understanding and managing gas condensate reservoirs. Without a correct assessment of dew point pressure, an accurate description of phase changes and phase behavior cannot be achieved. Numerous models for predicting gas condensate dew point pressure from surface fluid data have been proposed in the literature. Some of these require knowledge of the full composition of the reservoir fluid (based on laboratory experiments), while others only need field parameters that are relatively easy to obtain. This paper presents a new model for predicting the dew point pressure from down-hole fluid analyzer data. Such data are now measured (usually in real time) while obtaining down-hole fluid samples. The new model predictions give a quick estimation of dew point pressure for wet gas and gas condensate reservoirs. Since it relies only on down-hole measured data, the model provides an estimate of dew point pressure without the need for laboratory analyses. During down-hole fluid sampling, the model can be used to ensure whether the sample is still in single phase, or whether the dew point was crossed during the sampling operation. An early estimate of dew point pressure is also valuable in designing further tests for gas condensate wells. The new model, constructed using a fluid database of nearly 700 gas condensate samples, was devised using sophisticated statistical/machine learning methods, and attained a mean absolute relative error value of 2% for predicting the logarithm of pressure. In comparison with other dew point estimation models (that use surface fluid data), the chosen model was found to attain a similar level of accuracy when tested on samples not used in the model building phase.

People hold strong beliefs about the role of emotional cues in detecting deception. While research on the diagnostic value of such cues has been mixed, their influence on human veracity judgements is yet to be fully explored. Here, we address the relationship between emotional information and veracity judgements. In Study 1, the role of emotion recognition in the process of detecting naturalistic lies was investigated. Decoders’ veracity judgements were compared based on differences in trait empathy and their ability to recognise microexpressions and subtle expressions. Accuracy was found to be unrelated to facial cue recognition and negatively related to empathy. In Study 2, we manipulated decoders’ emotion recognition ability and the type of lies they saw: experiential or affective (emotional and unemotional). Decoders received either emotion recognition training, bogus training, or no training. In all scenarios, training did not affect veracity judgements. Experiential lies were ...

Lo studio mira a definire in maniera completa e puntuale la figura consumatore ideale dei Farmers' Market (mercati contadini), attraverso un'indagine comparata condotta su un campione di consumatori inglesi (storicamente abituati al commercio di filiera corta) e un campione di consumatori italiani (per i quali tale fenomeno risulta essere relativamente nuovo). L'indagine è volta all'individuazione delle variabili chiave che influenzano il gradimento complessivo dell'esperienza d'acquisto e dei punti differenziali strategici, la cui definizione potrà essere utile a future indagini condotte su business differenti.
Si conclude, in accordo con numerosi studi, che per entrambi i campioni analizzati le variabili chiave, capaci di spiegare la maggior parte della varianza totale, sono quelle di carattere esperienziale, relegando ad un ruolo molto marginale le variabili di costo.
Il contributo principale che il presente lavoro vuole offrire consiste nell'utilizzo delle Reti Bayesiane, applicate ad un'indagine sulla soddisfazione del cliente. Si conclude che l'utilizzo delle Reti Bayesiane, oltre a fornire un sorprendente contributo alle statistiche descrittive ed inferenziali tradizionali, offre concreti strumenti di management, individuando graficamente i nessi causali esistenti fra le variabili e la loro intensità. Grazie al Software di analisi Hugin, infine, è stato possibile costruire differenti scenari di intervento, quantificandone in modo attendibile gli ipotetici impatti.

Clinical trial adaptation refers to any adjustment of the trial protocol after the onset of the trial. The main goal is to make the process of introducing new medical interventions to patients more efficient by reducing the cost and the time associated with evaluating their safety and efficacy. The principal question is how should adaptation be performed so as to minimize the chance of distorting the outcome of the trial. We propose a novel method for achieving this. Unlike previous work our approach focuses on trial adaptation by sample size adjustment. We adopt a recently proposed stratification framework based on collected auxiliary data and show that this information together with the primary measured variables can be used to make a probabilistically informed choice of the particular sub-group a sample should be removed from. Experiments on simulated data are used to illustrate the effectiveness of our method and its application in practice.