Bayesian Models

One of the foremost objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the European Union (EU) is to increase agricultural productivity through subsidization of farmers. However, little empirical research has been done to examine the effect of subsidies on farm performance and, in particular, the channels through which subsidies affect productivity. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model in which input productivity, efficiency change, and technical change depend on subsidies and other factors, including farm location, we analyze empirically how subsidies affect the performance of farms. We use an unbalanced panel from the EU's Farm Accountancy Data Network on Danish, Finnish, and Swedish dairy farms and partition the data into eight regions. The data set covers the period 1997-2003 and has a total of 6,609 observations. The results suggest that subsidies drive productivity through efficiency and input productivities and the magnitudes of these effects differ across regions. In contrast to existing studies, we find that subsidies have a positive impact on technical efficiency. The contribution of subsidies to output is largest for dairy farms in Denmark and Southern, Central, and
Northern Sweden.

We are six students enrolled in the Physics of Data master degree at the University of Padova, Italy. From this year on, our master provides lectures on Information Theory and Inference, held by two international expert scientists that have been working on these topics for several years. Since the arguments tackled seemed very interesting, we decided to put the efforts together and work on some high quality notes for the whole course, to allow the other students to study and have a different point of view on the various arguments treated. We hope you will enjoy our vegetable soup with melt cheese.

The excavations at Alsónyék revealed numerous Starčevo features, over 50 in the southern part of subsite 10B and some 500 in subsite 5603. The overwhelming majority of the features uncovered were individual pits and pit complexes. Traces of houses or above-ground structures were recorded, but no certain house plans could be identified; numerous hearths and ovens were found. 25 Starčevo burials have been identified, with some in disused pits and ovens. The occupation excavated in subsite 5603 was substantial, the largest yet discovered in Transdanubia.

The north-west distribution of the Early Neolithic cultural complex of the northern Balkans – the Starčevo, Körös and Criş cultures – represents the first food-producing communities in many parts of the Carpathian basin. Starčevo sites are now known in the southern part of western Hungary up to Lake Balaton, but there are many unresolved questions about the precise chronology of the Early Neolithic in Transdanubia and beyond, in the Starčevo-Körös-Criş complex as a whole, and about the character and identity of the first farmers of the region.

This paper presents 34 radiocarbon dates from 33 samples, interpreted within a Bayesian framework, for the dating of the Starčevo occupation at Alsónyék. 18 samples of human and animal bone were selected as part of the OTKA-funded project Alsónyék: from the beginnings of food production to the end of the Neolithic in collaboration with the ERC- funded The Times of Their Lives project, in conjunction with 15 existing dates from human burials. The programme aimed to date Starčevo occupation and burials at Alsónyék, and in so doing to contribute to further understanding of the character and pace of the spread of the Neolithic way of life in the region. The Bayesian model presented estimates that Starčevo activity probably began in 5775–5740 cal BC (68% probability), probably lasted for 190–245 years (68% probability), and probably ended in 5560–5525 cal BC (68% probability). The transition from pottery Style group 1 to 2 probably occurred in 5760–5730 cal BC (68% probability), with the transition from pottery Style group 2 to 3 probably in 5595–5570 cal BC (68% probability).

The implications of these estimates for the character of the Starčevo occupation at Alsónyék are discussed, as well as for the wider development of the Starčevo culture and of the Early Neolithic in the region as a whole. The current picture suggests the densest Starčevo presence in south-east Transdanubia within the Hungarian distribution of the culture, with a gradual spread to the north later on. The results also demonstrate that Early Neolithic settlements in western Hungary lasted for a substantial period of time, across several human generations.

Orders can currently be placed via email to verlagbeier@online.de.

Bestellungen sind zurzeit über E-Mail an verlagbeier@online.de möglich.

Chapter 20: Abstracts

Stadler Peter, Kotova Nadezhda

In Chapter 1 the new results of magnetic prospection are shown. Including all excavations and former prospection, we now have 125 – 135 houses constructed from about 5650 to 5050 BC. If we take all into account, there might be up to 150 houses, thus making Brunn am Gebirge Wolfholz by far the largest settlement of the LPC, beginning in the Formative phase.

Chapter 2 presents the triangulation map and aerial photos of site 3. Aerial photos were taken on a flight with a helicopter in the excavation year 1999.

In Chapter 3 Alexander Minnich presents statistics of all newly detected hearths and ovens, in which he interpreted the houses in the triangulation map with the exception of those already discussed in volume 1, mostly from site 2.

Chapter 4 investigates technological aspects and the shape of pottery from site 3.

In Chapter 5 the ornamentation of pottery from Brunn site 3 is shown and cast into a typology.

Chapter 6 shows the clay objects, which are amulets and bells, with their parallels in eastern Europe.

In Chapter 7 Beate Pomberger discusses further musical instruments from Brunn – vessel flutes and bells made from ceramics and their parallels in eastern Europe.

In Chapter 8 similarities between the features of the Formative phase of Brunn site 2 are compared with Brunn site 3.

Chapter 9 is the Bayesian approach to a house sequence, for about 27 houses. Only in these houses enough information – radiocarbon dates and ceramics – was available. The same radiocarbon data used in this way can be used for a sequencing of the phases.

In Chapter 10 is given the chronology of the Brunn Sites in the context of the Linear Pottery Culture.

In Chapter 11 Nadezhda Kotova tries to give a sequence of houses from site 3, by using different parameters, such as topography, orientation, climate, seriation, and radiocarbon data.

In Chapter 12 we give an overview of rock materials found at all sites of Brunn Wolfholz.

In Chapter 13 we present a typology of the macrolithic artefacts.

In Chapter 14 a complete dataset of macrolithic artefacts from Brunn Wolfholz is shown.

In Chapter 15 we present a stray find of a stone axe from a geological inspection.

Chapter 16 deals with the further investigation of petrographic and mineralogical analyses of additional selected pottery from the excavation Brunn am Gebirge (locality Wolfholz) from sites 1, 3 and 4 and a comparison with some reference samples.

Chapter 17 disproves our hope to identify Hungarian sites, from where we thought some imported ceramics of Brunn came from.

In Chapter 18 our student Yanik Hahnekamp investigates the topographical situation of LPC
Cemeteries and settlement burials in comparison with the distribution of Mesolithic and LPC settlements.

Imprecise chronology has entailed a fuzzy kind of prehistory. Prehistorians should no longer be content with timeframes that employ successive units of 200 years or more duration, or with slow change over the long term as their dominant chronological and interpretative perspective. The means to get away from very generalised accounts of the past is formal chronological modelling in a Bayesian framework. The Bayesian approach in general is outlined, with emphasis on its interpretive and iterative nature. The approach combines calibrated radiocarbon dates with knowledge of the archaeological contexts from which they are derived to produce a series of formal, probabilistic date estimates. Stringent demands are made of both the radiocarbon dates and our archaeological understanding of stratigraphy, associations, sample taphonomy and context in general. The Bayesian process at Alsónyék involved assessment of existing dates, careful definition of aims and objectives, the construction of a rigorous sampling strategy, with an explicit hierarchy of suitable samples, precise understanding of the contexts from which samples are derived, and simulation to achieve cost-effective use of resources. The principal material dated at Alsónyék was human and animal bone. Potential age offsets from non-vegetarian diets are carefully considered; ‘perfect pairs’ of human and animal bone samples from the same contexts indicate that human bone samples are not subject to wide-scale freshwater reservoir effects. Dietary inputs are estimated formally using a series of Bayesian mixing models.The sequence of iterative sampling submissions between 2012 and 2015 is described, and the procedures of the five laboratories involved are detailed. Procedures for model construction, validation and comparison are discussed. Finally, we consider how we can use precise timings to reveal the web of connections and successions that made up past lives, adding plot and context to a more precise chronicle to create narratives for peopling the past.

Keywords: Neolithic / tell / Vinča culture chronology / Vinča-Belo Brdo / Miloje Vasić / Bayesian chronological modelling / radiocarbon dating Schlagwörter: Neolithikum / Siedlungshügel / Vinča Chronologie / Vinča-Belo Brdo / Miloje Vasić / Bayesische Modellierung / Radiokarbondatierung Mots-clés: Néolithique / tell / chronologie de la culture de Vinča / Vinča-Belo Brdo / Miloje Vasić / modélisation bayésienne / datation au radiocarbone

Drawing on the papers in this volume that precede it, our discussion brings all the chapters of the long story of Alsónyék into a single narrative, discussing in more interpretive terms notions of persistent place, community, aggregation and coalescence, with an eye on different scales of analysis and the broader tempo of change. We look especially at the remarkably long persistence of Alsónyék, the intensity of its occupation and the trajectory of population increase and decline at the site.
We begin by comparing general conditions of early village emergence with the specific evidence for the development of settlement and population in Transdanubia and beyond in central Europe, before summarising date estimates for the successive periods of occupation at Alsónyék itself, from Starčevo through LBK and Sopot to the Lengyel. We emphasise the long continuity of occupation except for the gap between Starčevo and LBK, the probable overlap between LBK and Sopot, and the acceleration of growth in the Lengyel period. The exceptional persistence of place seen at Alsónyék is examined in further detail, with comparison to elsewhere leading on to discussion of the sense of place and community that may have been experienced through the Alsónyék sequence. Characterisation of the Lengyel occupation as not only a major aggregation but also a coalescent community is explored; the causes of such developments elsewhere, as seen in the historical and ethnographic record, are noted, including periods of social instability and inter-community violence. The extraordinary intensity of activity at Alsónyék is further modelled in various ways to provide estimates of population and numbers of buildings in use through the Lengyel sequence. The peak of intense activity was probably only maintained for a generation or two around 4700 cal BC, and the decline of the Lengyel site was perhaps only slightly slower than its rise (covering two or three generations in the latter part of the 47th century cal BC). Activity did not reduce to its pre-Lengyel levels, however, but persisted for several more centuries at perhaps two or three times the intensity of any pre-Lengyel occupation.
A search for the causes of the Alsónyék aggregation — and of its decline — remains challenging, though answers may eventually be found in the further study of the regional settlement complex or the detailed history of disease. No extensive signs of violence have so far been recorded. We further discuss possible constituents of the coalescence represented at Alsónyék, noting the frequent houses and possible households and neighbourhoods, and looking beyond these to the idea of wards, clans and moieties. Possible clues to internal differences within the site are noted for future research, and it is only with further work that the full Alsónyék story can be told.

To the east of the main excavated area at Alsónyék, a small investigation took place which revealed a Sopot culture occupation, represented by pits, four ditches and 18 graves with the remains of 20 individuals. Some time-depth to the occupation is seen in the ditches cutting the pits, and some of the graves cutting the third ditch. The enclosed area was about five hectares, based on geomagnetic survey, but it is not possible to estimate the entire size of the occupation.
The Sopot culture is normally regarded as a horizon with a questionable chronological position on the boundary between the Middle and Late Neolithic in western Hungary. Its role in the formation of the large-scale Lengyel complex remains controversial. Scholars can agree that it was brought to the region from the south, but there have been different views concerning the timing of its spread in the western Carpathian basin. Some have seen it as an entirely pre-Lengyel development, and others as at least partly contemporaneous with the early Lengyel culture.
Dating within the ERC-funded project, The Times of Their Lives, aimed to provide formally modelled estimates of the timing and duration of the Sopot occupation at Alsónyék, and in so doing also to contribute to better understanding of the context and development of the Sopot culture in Hungary. The paper presents 17 dates on human and animal bone (including five existing dates from burials), which are modelled in a Bayesian statistical framework. The model concentrates on the samples available from the burials, and its main element regards the burials as representing a continuous period of activity in this area of the Alsónyék complex. The model estimates that the Sopot burials probably began in
5095–5020 cal BC (68% probability), probably lasted for 220–340 years (68% probability), and probably ended in 4825–4750 cal BC (68% probability). The model also estimates a terminus ante quem for the digging of Ditch 211 of probably 4930–4870 cal BC (68%
probability).
These estimates help to inform debate about the relative sequence of cultural developments
in the region, and the relationship of Sopot communities to those of the LBK and
the Lengyel cultures. As Alsónyék is the largest currently known Sopot burial ground in
Hungary in eastern Transdanubia, this chronology is particularly valuable for modelling
cultural interactions along the Danube between the northern Balkans and the Carpathian
basin. The Sopot component also contributes significantly to the construction of a robust
chronology for the long sequence of occupations at Alsónyék.

This paper offers a probabilistic treatment of the conditions for argument cogency as endorsed in informal logic: acceptability, relevance, and sufficiency (RSA). Treating a natural language argument as a reason-claim-complex, our analysis identifies content features of defeasible argument on which the RSA conditions depend, namely: (i) change in the commitment to the reason, (ii) the reason's sensitivity and selectivity to the claim, (iii) one's prior commitment to the claim, and (iv) the contextually determined thresholds of acceptability for reasons and for claims. Results contrast with, and may indeed serve to correct, the informal understanding and applications of the RSA criteria concerning their conceptual (in)dependence, their function as update-thresholds, and their status as obligatory rather than permissive norms, but also show how these formal and informal normative approaches can in fact align.

The Neolithic settlement of Alsónyék reached its greatest extent during the Late Neolithic Lengyel period. Nearly 9000 features, including postholes associated with 122 houses, pits and pit complexes, and c. 2300 burials, could be assigned to it. The traces of Lengyel settlement and burials were found over the entire excavated area, with an estimated
extent of some 80 ha.
The burials uncovered mostly form part of groups of graves, actually being small cemeteries within the various parts of the settlement. Apart from the grave groups, several solitary or scattered graves were also found. Other large Lengyel burial grounds or large Lengyel settlements with numerous burials are known in Transdanubia, but the enormous number of graves at Alsónyék is unprecedented within the Lengyel cultural complex as a whole, and provides exciting opportunities for varied archaeological and bioarchaeological investigations.
The discovery of 122 surface-level, timber-framed houses at a single site is also unique for the area and the Lengyel period as a whole. These buildings help to build a better understanding of the architecture and lifestyle of the Lengyel population, which is a fairly new strand in the settlement archaeology of the Lengyel culture in Hungary and beyond. This and the sheer size of the site make Alsónyék exceptionally significant.
Altogether 217 radiocarbon results are presented for the Lengyel phase. For the purpose of analysis subsites 5603, 11 and 10B have been modelled separately. The modelled estimates are precise enough that it is possible to estimate robustly the timing of activity across the site. The modelling suggests that burial activity in subsite 5603 probably began in 4790–4740 cal BC (68% probability) and that it began at a similar time, 4795–4745 cal BC (68% probability), in subsite 11. An intensive period of burial began slightly later, in 4715–4690 cal BC (68% probability), on subsite 10B. At this time settlement was established across a wide area, in subsite 11 from 4745–4690 cal BC (68% probability), on subsite 5603 from 4745–4665 cal BC (68% probability), and on subsite 10B from 4720–4700 cal BC (68% probability).
After a brief episode of intense occupation, lasting at most a few decades, settlement and then burial ended on the northernmost subsite 10B, in the 4700s or 4690s cal BC (68% probability) and 4695–4670 cal BC (68% probability) respectively. Settlement also ended before burial on subsite 11, but endured for much longer. The settlement here ended in
4670–4620 cal BC (37% probability) or 4610–4565 cal BC (31% probability) and burial in 4585–4515 cal BC (68% probability). Both settlement and burial endured longest on subsite 5603, although here the end of burial preceded the end of settlement by well over a century. Burial ended here in 4515–4465 cal BC (68% probability), and settlement ended in 4345–4245 cal BC (68% probability).

In the central part of the main area of the Alsónyék complex investigated an LBK settlement was discovered. The features belonging to the LBK occupation were uncovered in subsites 10B, 11 and 5603. The location of houses could be determined by the long pits flanking presumed timber framed constructions; postholes are very poorly preserved. Fifty house plans could be identified, most of them based on the long pits.
Most Neolithic archaeologists agree that the western part of the Carpathian basin served as the cradle of the LBK. The Balaton area and the region south of the lake had an important role in the development of the culture and in the spread of the Neolithic to central Europe. Southern Transdanubia, however, has previously been a veritable terra incognita
for settlement research of the culture, despite the evidence for LBK sites from the region.
Dating of the LBK occupation was funded by the OTKA project, Alsónyék from the beginning of food production to the end of the Neolithic and has been undertaken in a cooperation with the ERC-funded project, The Times of Their Lives. The aim has been to provide formally modelled date estimates of the timing and duration of the LBK occupation at Alsónyék, to gain insight into intra-site development and dynamics, and further the absolute chronology of the LBK on a regional scale.
This paper presents 23 radiocarbon dates from 21 samples, interpreted within a formal chronological framework, for the LBK settlement at Alsónyék. The Bayesian model presented estimates that LBK activity probably began in 5335–5280 cal BC (68% probability), probably lasted for 290–410 years (68% probability), and probably ended in 5010–4915 cal BC (68% probability).

Perhaps nowhere in European prehistory does the idea of clearly-defined cultural boundaries remain more current than in the initial Neolithic, where the southeast–northwest trend of the spread of farming crosses what is perceived as a sharp divide between the Balkans and central Europe. This corresponds to a distinction between the Vinča culture package, named for a classic site in Serbia, with its characteristic pottery assemblage and absence of longhouses, and the Linearbandkeramik (LBK), with equally diagnostic but different pottery, and its apparently culturally-diagnostic longhouses, extending in a more northerly belt through central Europe westward to the Dutch coast. In this paper we question the concept of such a clear division through a presentation of new data from the site of Szederkény-Kukorica-dűlő. A large settlement in southeast Transdanubia, Hungary, excavated in advance of road construction, Szederkény is notable for its combination of pottery styles, variously including Vinča A, Ražište and LBK, and longhouses of a kind otherwise familiar from the LBK world. Formal modelling of its date establishes that the site probably began in the later 54th century cal BC, lasting until the first decades of the 52nd century cal BC. Occupation, featuring longhouses, pits and graves, probably began at the same time in the eastern and western parts of the settlement, starting a decade or two later in the central part; the western part was probably the last to be abandoned. Vinča pottery is predominantly associated with the eastern and central parts of the site, and Ražište pottery with the west. Formal modelling of the early history of longhouses in the LBK world suggests their emergence in the Formative LBK of Transdanubia c. 5500 cal BC followed by rapid dispersal in the middle of the 54th century cal BC, associated with the ‘earliest’ (älteste) LBK. The adoption of longhouses at Szederkény thus appears to come a few generations after the start of this ‘diaspora’. Rather than explaining the mixture of things, practices and perhaps people at Szederkény with reference to problematic notions such as hybridity, we propose instead a more fluid and varied vocabulary, encompassing combination and amalgamation, relationships and performance in the flow of social life, and networks; this makes greater allowance for diversity and interleaving in a context of rapid change.