Benny Gantz

03/12/19
I- How Soon Armageddon , and who will initiate the first strike in The Middle East to redefine The New World Order?
https://www.academia.edu/38990630/Beyond_Sykes-Picot_New_World_Order_vs_Armageddon_by_Imad_F_Abdullah

19/09/2019
BEFORE THE END OF GAME

First :what is the role of Turkey who
occupied a large part of Syrian land and is not intending to
withdraw?
second:  Why should Israel hit Hezbollah now and not later?


09/08/2019 UPDATE

US thought that Syria is like Irak, easy to destroy and steel its humanitarian treasure. People of Syria are sacrified for a simple equation : e to the power 2X. where X is dignity.
A NEW TRIGGER WHICH MIGHT OBVIOUSLY CHANGE THE CURRENT ISSUE IN MIDDLE EAST: Benny Gantz, the General Coming to End the Netanyahu Era
« The targeted killing of Hamas military chief Ahmed Jabari in 2012; the 6,231 Hamas targets hit; the 1,364 terrorists killed during Operation Protective Edge in 2014. Just to make sure no one can accuse the general of being a limp-wristed “leftist” – kryptonite in modern Israeli politics. »
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-general-coming-to-end-the-netanyahu-era-in-israel-1.6875029
Editor’s note :
We recall the effect of a trigger to change the game , it is a decisive for the benefit of the struggle of the Palestinians for their emancipation from the yoke of apartheid.Thus the big exodus planned to relocate them to Sinai with the help of the capital of the Gulf countries may not take place given the profile of the new leader of Israel. To be continued.


UPDATE 11/03/2019
The attached map and the accompanying analysis give only weak indications of the evolution of the situation on the ground. The master card remains in the hands of the Syrian elite. We are waiting for the next trigger.

04/05/2019 UPDATE L‟article commence ainsi: “ LES SCIENCES SOCIALES AU SERVICE DE LA CONTRE-INSURRECTION Portrait de l’intellectuel en soldat
La mise en données de l’existence humaine n’a pas seulement des conséquences sur la vie privée, mais parfois aussi sur la vie elle-même. De plus en plus d’entreprises liées aux armées utilisent les informations collectées pour localiser des individus supposés dangereux et, le cas échéant, les éliminer.
https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2019/03/KOCH/59622” Ce qui est préoccupant est ceci:
“En 2008, la section recherche et ingénierie du ministère de la Défense met sur pied un programme de modélisations des comportements: le Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Modeling, où est développé le projet de radar social”.
2 The

https://www.academia.edu/26057106/Colloque_participatif_Mondialisation_et_Editorialisation_-_project_on_knowledge_Networks_and_virtuous_cities_rebuilding-Commentaires_de_Kamal_Chaouachi_et_Nicolas_Chahine-Intervention_de_Khaled_Alfaham

« Il aura fallu qu’une quinzaine de barbouzes saoudiennes découpent un opposant à la scie à métaux pour que nos vieilles « démocraties » découvrent que la guerre du Yémen a fait, vraisemblablement plus de 200 000 morts.
L’historien Isa Blumi de l’université de Stockholm écrit : « La guerre contre le Yémen aujourd’hui est un exemple brutal de la façon dont l’expansion des intérêts capitalistes mondiaux détruit les nations. Cela prend d’abord la forme du néo-libéralisme (souvent innocemment qualifié de mondialisation) et ensuite, au moment où commence l’inévitable effondrement structurel du pays ciblé (avec son inévitable résistance populaire qui mine l’ordre politique), on passe à une forme plus directe de violence.

There are four causes to this crisis, which reinforce each other:
(1)
Israel's ability to use the US government to eliminate Israel's enemies in the Middle East that are obstacles to the expansion of Israel. Israel targets Syria and Iran because these two governments support and supply the militias of Hezbollah in Lebanon, who have twice repelled attempts by Israel to settle in southern Lebanon to control reserves
drinking water.
(2)
The neoconservative ideology of US global hegemony, which fits perfectly with Israel's program in the Middle East, produced a very strong neoconservative alliance with Israel.
(3)
The need to justify massive budgets and large power in production, to meet the wishes of the military-industrial complex US.
(4) The inability of the Russian government to understand the three preceding causes.

What’s new? A new phase in Syria’s war augurs escalation with Israel. As the Assad regime gains the upper hand, Hizbollah probes the south west and Iran seeks to augment its partners’ military capacities, Israel has grown fearful that Syria is becoming an Iranian base.

Why does it matter? “Rules of the game” that contained Israeli-Hizbollah clashes for over a decade have eroded. New rules can be established in Syria by mutual agreement or by a deadly cycle of attack and response in which everyone will lose. A broader war could be one miscalculation away.

What should be done? Russia should broker understandings that bolster the de-escalation agreement distancing Iran-backed forces from Syria’s armistice line with Israel; halt Iran’s construction of precision missile facilities and its military infrastructure in Syria; and convince Israel to acquiesce in foreign forces remaining in the rest of Syria pending a deal on the country’s future.


Mise à jour/Update-Towards WAR WITH IRAN
CRITICAL TRIGGER-THE CONFRONTATION?-2017-11-05
"Before Hariri’s resignation, several senior officials from Barack Obama’s administration had said a series of coordinated messages in Washington and Riyadh was building a case for military confrontation with Iran. Saturday’s announcement is likely to add to those concerns and increase fears of a clash between Hezbollah and Israel, which fought a devastating war in 2006".
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/04/lebanon-prime-minister-resigns-life-in-danger-saad-hariri

Les  derniers triggers du modèle stochastique plus celui qui est prévisible restant dans le domaine des hypothèses (TUNING PROBLEM):
1) l'incursion d'un avion de chasse israélien près de Homs et riposte par un missile syrien;
2) simulation ou bien d'une attaque chimique près d'Idleb (en modélisation pas de distinction, c'est le résultat qui est pris en compte),
3) 50 missiles américains se sont abattus sur la base aérienne près de Homs. Coût des 59 missiles 30M$ payés par l'OTAN.
4) Lancement de missiles israéliennes sur des entrepôts de l'aéroport international de Damas financés par X,
5) livraison à la Corée du Sud d'un système anti-missile (coût 100 M$ facturé à la Corée du Sud)
6) PREDICTABLE TRIGGER THANKS TO STOCHASTIC MODEL: a) MISSILE vs MISSILE, RUSSIA didn't react because all those triggers are not enough for convergent results, e.g. needs more triggers to justify GLOBAL WAR.
Our stochastic model evolves with respect to new triggers. In order to follow permanent updating please refer to the original text published at:
http://mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1511:stochastic-model-and-worldwide-conflict-resolution&catid=354:editos-2014&Itemid=2043
Last update:  2016-09-18
LAST TRIGGER-Double game?-2016-09-18
U.S. admits carrying out airstrike that Russia says killed 62 Syrian soldiers
The U.S. Central Command acknowledged the strike, in eastern Syria’s Deir al-Zour province, saying it was “halted immediately” when U.S. forces were informed by Russia “that it was possible the personnel and vehicles targeted were part of the Syrian military.” Central Command said the intended target had been Islamic State forces in the area.
A U.S. Defense official said the strike “appears to be an intelligence failure.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/russia-and-syria-blame-us-led-coalition-for-deadly-strike-on-syrian-troops/2016/09/17/8dabf5d6-7d03-11e6-8064-c1ddc8a724bb_story.html