Cyclicity

Authors/Szerzők: Ercsey-Ravasz Ferenc, Ercsey-Ravasz Mária, Fazakas Emese, Hatházi András, Bodó A. Ottó, Jankó Szép Yvette, Köllő Csongor, Gábor Csilla, Bóné Éva, Orbán Gyöngyi, Berszán István, Ferencz Orsolya, Serestély Zalán, Lázár Alpár Sándor, Püsök Sarolta, Kerekes Erzsébet, Lakatos Artur Loránd, M. Bodrogi Enikő, Tóth Szilárd, Veress Károly
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Veress Károly (ed.): Rhythm and Repetition. Interdisciplinary Dialogue 3 ‒ The volume contains the presentations held at the 3rd international interdisciplinary conference organized by the Bolyai Society at the Babeș-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca, held on 7-8 November 2014.
x  x  x
A kötet a Bolyai Társaság és a kolozsvári Babeș-Bolyai Tudományegyetem közös szervezésében tartott III. nemzetközi interdiszciplináris konferencia (2014. november 7-8.) előadásait tartalmazza.

В брошюре рассмотрены актуальные проблемы цикличности природных катаклизмов и их связи с некоторыми космическими факторами. Освещается смелая гипотеза о существовании гравитационной проницаемости различных сред и вводится понятие коэффициента гравитационной проницаемости.
Халилов Э.Н. Цикличность природных катаклизмов и некоторые проблемы гравитации. /Под редакцией Академика Ш.Ф. Мехтиева/, Баку, СМУиС, 1989, 42 с.

May, A. (1997b): Mikrofazies und Zyklizität der Wellenkalk-Formation (Unterer Muschelkalk) von Osnabrück (Norddeutschland). - Zentralblatt für Geologie und Paläontologie Teil I, 1996 (5/6): 521-532, 1 figs., pl. 1; Stuttgart.

Abstract: The Wellenkalk Formation (Lower Muschelkalk) has been investigated at the Westerberg within Osnabrück (Northern Germany). The microfacies types A and B build thin tempestite layers. Within the "Wellenkalke" the microfacies types C to E can be distinguished by decreasing intensity of bioturbation. The microfacies type F represents the "Gelbkalke". In an ideal cycle the sequence of microfacies types is: A or B - C - D to E - F. The microfacies types A and B were sedimented between the storm wave base and the normal wave base. The microfacies type F originated in the high intertidal and supratidal zones. The microfacies types of the "Wellenkalke " are built within following zones: C = subtidal, D and E = shallow subtidal and intertidal.

Zusammenfassung: Die Wellenkalk-Formation (Unterer Muschelkalk) wurde am Westerberg in Osnabrück (Norddeutschland) untersucht. Die Mikrofaziestypen A und B bilden dünne Tempestit-Lagen. Innerhalb der Wellenkalke lassen sich mit abnehmender Bioturbation die Mikrofaziestypen C bis E unterscheiden. Mikrofaziestyp F repräsentiert die Gelbkalke. In einem Idealzyklus ist die Folge der Mikrofaziestypen: A oder B - C - D bis E - F. Die Mikrofaziestypen A und B wurden zwischen Sturm- und Schönwetter-Wellenbasis abgelagert, und der Mikrofaziestyp F entstand im hohen Intertidal und Supratidal. Die Wellenkalk-Mikrofaziestypen sind: C = Subtidal, D und E = flaches Subtidal und Intertidal.

La présente étude porte sur deux adverbes/connecteurs du français ancien et moderne. Il s’agira d’une part de ainz (avec sa variante longue ainçois) , qui est extrêmement fréquent en français médiéval, mais qui devient obsolète en français classique, et d’autre part du comparatif temporel plus tôt et de la forme lexicalisée plutôt qui en est dérivée.  Nous montrerons que ainz/ainçois et plus tôt/plutôt ont connu des évolutions sémantico-pragmatiques très semblables, de la forme schématique représentée dans (1) :
(1) Adverbe temporel de sens comparatif  > marqueur pragmatique exprimant une préférence de la part d’un référent discursif > marqueur de reformulation non paraphrastique
Si les deux marqueurs sont attestés depuis l’ancien français, leurs évolutions respectives sont cependant décalées dans le temps, de façon assez marquée pour qu’il soit permis de penser qu’ensemble elles constituent ce que Hansen (2014, 2018a/b) appelle un « cycle sémantico-pragmatique » et Ghezzi & Molinelli (2014), un « cycle de pragmaticalisation ».

Recent work on verb clusters within Continental West-Germanic has argued in favor
of restrictive theories of cluster orders that only generate a subset of the logically
possible orders in three-verb clusters, explicitly ruling out the 213 order. In this context
it is remarkable that Swiss German features a verb cluster-like construction with an
unmarked 213 order. I will argue that this construction indeed represents a proper
verb cluster and not an instance of the 3rd Construction, which also allows the 213
order. Based on new diagnostics, viz., stranding of VP3 under topicalization of the
governing VP2, short relative clause extraposition and displaced zu, I will show that
verb clusters and Verb Projection Raising differ from the 3rd Construction with respect
to the structural position of the dependent VP: while the dependent VP is contained
within the projection of the governing verb in the former, it occurs outside of the
projection of the governing verb in the latter. Applying the diagnostics to the Swiss
German 213 construction delivers a clear result: the construction patterns with verb
clusters rather than the 3rd Construction. I conclude from this that theories of verb
clusters and unmarked word order more generally must be able to generate all six
logically possible orders, including the 213 order.

I argue that displaced morphology in German results from a conflict between the head-finality of the German VP and the possibility of head-initial verb clusters. The phenomenon provides a straightforward argument for post-syntactic morphology: First, the placement of the non-finite morphology is not solely governed by hierarchical notions but
crucially affected by linear notions such as adjacency (and thus argues against treating all instances of morphological selection in terms of upward Agree as in Wurmbrand 2012). Second, displacement has no semantic effects. Third, the restrictions on displacement follow from the selectional properties of the exponents, which are checked linearly.

Modern geophysical data recorded during lava dome building eruptions indicate the presence of multiple connected magma storage regions. Most numerical models for lava dome eruptions assume a single magma chamber fed from below with a constant or prescribed time dependent influx rate and connected to the Earth surface through a conduit.
Here we present a development of the model of extrusive eruptions considering a system made of two magma chambers located in elastic rocks and connected by a dyke between each other. We use locations and volumes of the magma chambers inferred for Soufrie`re Hills Volcano, Montserrat from ground deformation studies and seismic tomography.
The model shows cyclic behaviour with a period that depends on the intensity of the influx rate, the volumes and shape of the two chambers and the degree of connectivity of the two reservoirs. For a weak connectivity the overpressure in the lower chamber stays nearly constant during the cycle and the influx of fresh magma into the shallow chamber is also nearly constant. For a strong connectivity between the chambers their overpressure increases or decreases during the cycle in a synchronous way.

In fact, the substantiated forecasting horizon is 15-20 years. This horizon is believed to reflect the duration of one generation.
At first, the article shows that the duration of generations is unrelated to the substantiated forecasting horizon. Then follows the hypothesis whereby the horizon is determined by the new idea realization time. To verify the hypothesis, the adjusted model of the innovative cycle is used, from the work by E.M.Rogers and R.Agarwala-Rogers, Communication in Organization,1976, pp.163-165:
Stage 1. Innovative process starts with the innovation approval.
Stage 2. Innovation is introduced to a part of the organization to assess its consequences (“innovation appraisal”).
Stage 3. Based on the appraisal, the innovation is adjusted.
Stage 4. The innovation is introduced across the entire organization.
Stage 5. The innovation is institutionalized (routinized) and ceases to be an innovation.
The article suggests that, within an individual state, the innovative cycle is implemented by changes focused in three sub-systems:
Top authorities (=political elites) initiate and adjust innovations (Stages 1 and 3)
Government institutions conduct the appraisal of innovations and their routinization (Stages 2 and 5);
Mass groups – it is the environment of full-scale implementation of innovations (Stage 4).
The article substantiates the hypothesis that the development cycles of the three subsystems have the following duration: 2±1, 4±1, 8±1 (years), respectively, and the full cycle of the innovative process lasts 20±1 (years) (2+4+2+8+4=20). The chronology of three 20-year cycles in the Russian history serves as illustration:
Alexander II Great Reforms (1855-1857-1861-1963-1870-1874);
Bolsheviks’ coming to power (1919-1921-1925-1927-1935-1939);
Gorbachev’s perestroika, Yeltsin’s reforms, and Putin's first term (1985-1987-1991-1993-2000-2004).
The article concludes that it is the 20-year innovation cycle that determines the substantiated forecast horizon.
KEY WORDS: forecast studies, forecast horizon, 20-year innovation cycle.
РАСШИРЕННОЕ РЕЗЮМЕ. Известно, что горизонт обоснованного прогнозирования составляет 15-20 лет. Принято считать, что этот горизонт отражает длительность одного поколения.
Сначала в статье показано, что длительность поколений не имеет отношения к горизонту обоснованного прогнозирования. Потом сформулирована гипотеза, согласно которой горизонт определяется временем реализации новых идей. Для проверки гипотезы используется скорректированная модель инновационного цикла в организации из работы Е.М.Роджерс, Р.Агарвала-Роджерс «Коммуникация в организациях», в сокр., М.: Прогресс,1980:
1 этап. Инновационный процесс начинается с одобрения новшества.
2 этап. Инновация внедряется в части организации для оценки её последствий («экспертиза инновации»).
3 этап. По результатам экспертизы инновация корректируется.
4 этап. Инновация внедряется в масштабе всей организации.
5 этап. Инновация институционализируется (рутинизируется) и перестает быть инновацией.
В статье показано, что в пределах отдельного государства инновационный цикл реализуется посредством изменений, сконцентрированных в трех субсистемах:
верхушка власти (=политические элиты) инициирует инновации и корректирует их (1-й и 3-й этап);
аппарат управления осуществляет экспертизу инноваций и их рутинизацию (2-й и 5-й этап);
массовые группы – это среда полномасштабного внедрения инноваций (4-й этап).
В статье обоснована гипотеза о том, что циклы развития трех субсистем имеют длительность 2±1, 4±1, 8±1 (лет) соответственно, а полный цикл инновационного процесса длится 20±1 (лет) (2+4+2+8+4=20). В качестве иллюстрации приводится хронология трех 20-летних циклов в истории России:
Великие реформы Александра II (1855-1857-1861-1963-1870-1874 гг.);
закрепление большевиков во власти (1919-1921-1925-1927-1935-1939 гг.);
“перестройка” Горбачева, реформы Ельцина, и первый срок Путина (1985-1987-1991-1993-2000-2004 гг.).
В статье сделан вывод о том, что именно 20-летний инновационный цикл определяет горизонт обоснованного прогнозирования.
КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СЛОВА: прогностические исследования, горизонт прогнозирования, 20-летний инновационный цикл.

This is a retrospective study on meningococcal meningitis (MM) in Bulgaria that has, for the first time, reported results on non-linear temporal patterns of incidence and its variations. Methods of descriptive statistics, linear and non-linear modelling as well as periodogram regression analysis have been applied. A non-linear decreasing trend in crude incidence rates per 100 persons over the years 1940-1990 has been described (p < 0.0001) and cyclic variations revealed (periods T = 8.00, 18.75, 24.75 and 33.50 years, p < 0.05-0.01). Above cycles have been detected after the reciprocal trend has been removed (y = 1.04 + 15.78/t). A similar cyclicity (periods T = 8.25 and 27.5 years) in the variations of solar activity (sunspot number Rz) over the same time interval of 51 years has been established after the main cycle of 10.5-13 years has been removed by a two-step procedure. The results from this study have added to our previous findings on cyclic variations in mortality and lethality from meningococcal infections in Bulgaria (1, 2). Above similarity is also in accordance with earlier conclusions on relations of solar activity cycles with epidemics of cerebrospinal meningitis in New York and USA over the years 1800-1935 (3, 4).

The power coefficient k decreases along evolution in an allometric relationship between the oxygen consumption rate and the body mass of animals. This theoretical study investigated the role of the power coefficient k and its behavior along evolution. The animals were organized in three groups according to the values of the power coefficient k as follows: (I) from unicellular Prokaryotes to Eukaryotes; (II) from Mytilus and Annelida to Pisces; (III) from Reptilia to Mammals and Aves. At the beginning of each animal group (stage), the value of k was close to 0.9-1.0 and at the end of the stage it was close to 0.67-0.70. Exponential sharp increase of the power coefficient k was observed during the biological transition from Protozoa to simply organized Metazoa and in the transition from Poikylothermic to Homothermic organisms (e.g. from Pisces to Reptilia). Also, when using the periodogram regression analysis, a cyclic (periodic) pattern in this increase was observed (i.e. period T approximately 8-11 units, P<0.05). It was postulated that the power coefficient k, as with the coefficient a, might represent the increase of complexity of animal organization within each group.

Copyright usage permission note by Elsevier:

This article was published in Biosystems, 66(1-2), Atanasov AT, Dimitrov BD, Changes of the power coefficient in the 'metabolism-mass' relationship in the evolutionary process of animals, 65-71, Copyright Elsevier, 2002. The Journal's original page link is at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03032647 .

The ideal type method is used in the article for designing the new model of regular generations dynamics. The conceptual framework of the model is the notions of “the societal community” and “the patterned normative order” (T.Parsons) and “select minority” (J.Ortega y Gasset).
J.Ortega y Gasset believed that (i) the generations focusing on changes alternate with those focusing on status quo in any community; (ii) each select minority creates behavioral patterns used as the guideline for mass groups, which results in a mass generation emergence.
The article suggests that (i) the fundamental property of the societal community is the regular alternation of generations; (ii) the average duration of generations does not depend on the length of life, (iii) generations arise as a result of the conflict between different select minorities, (iv) select minorities transform their conflict in that of mass generations.
The new model of the regular generations dynamics is convenient in that it can be specified taking into account available information on particular features of real communities.
KEY WORDS: socialization, conflict of generations, the model of cycle, the societal community, the patterned normative order, select minority, T.Parsons, J.Ortega y Gasset.
РЕЗЮМЕ. Метод идеальных типов используется в статье для конструирования новой модели регулярной поколенческой динамики. Концептуальную основу модели составляют понятия «социетальное сообщество» и «структурированный нормативный порядок» (Т.Парсонс) и «избранное меньшинство» (Х.Ортега-и-Гассет).
Х.Ортега-и-Гассет полагал, что (i)в каждом обществе чередуются поколения, ориентированные на перемены, и поколения, ориентированные на сохранение status quo; (ii) каждое избранное меньшинство создает образцы поведения, на которые ориентируются массовые группы и в результате рождается массовое поколение.
В статье показано, что (i)фундаментальным свойством социетального сообщества является регулярная смена поколений, (ii)средняя длительность поколений не зависит от продолжительности жизни, (iii) поколения возникают в результате конфликта между разными избранными меньшинствами, (iv) избранные меньшинства превращают свой конфликт в конфликт массовых поколений.
Новая модель регулярной поколенческой динамики удобна тем, что её можно детализировать с учетом доступной информации о конкретных особенностях реальных обществ.
КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СЛОВА: социализация, конфликт поколений, модель цикла, социетальное сообщество, структурированный нормативный порядок, избранное меньшинство, Т.Парсонс, Х.Ортега-и-Гассет.

Cancer of the lung, bronchus and trachea (ICD9, Dx:162) is firmly increasing over the last 20-30 years worldwide. Most frequently used linear estimates (both multifactorial and extrapolated) of incidence rates have shown discrepancies from actual values that makes it very difficult to precisely forecast the incidence trends. However, on the background of the firmly increasing trend, our previous study [1] has revealed also a regular nonlinearity in the time series of crude incidence rate for lung cancer in Bulgaria (i.e. cyclicity of 19-20 years). Later, an infrannual cycle with a period T = 18 years has been restated and a hypercycle with a period TH = 62 years revealed. Statistical associations between the time series of lung cancer and cyclic heliophysical indexes (Rz, Wh) have been also established [2-4]. These earlier results have confirmed the existence of cyclic patterns in the time series of lung cancer in Bulgaria and suggested likely implications of such time-series approach to the nonlinear modeling and forecasting of incidence rates. The aim of this study is to present an example of the application of a complex time-series approach to more deeply analyse and forecast the temporal dynamics of crude incidence rate for lung cancer in Bulgaria over the interval 1952-1993. The National Oncological Centre (Sofia, Bulgaria) has kindly provided data on crude incidence rates of lung cancer per 100,000 persons. The following analyses are used: linear and non-linear regression analysis, periodogram regression analysis (PRA) with decomposition and model reconstruction of incidence time series (decycling, detrending, trigonometric approximation and derivation of estimates) wherein 95% confidence levels are assumed. A block-algorithm of the complex methodological approach to the analysis of incidence time series has been presented. The results have confirmed the existence of cyclic patterns in the temporal dynamics on the background of the linearly increasing trend of crude incidence rate for the lung cancer in Bulgaria. The best non-linear model of the increasing trend has been that of the power function y = 6.85*t 0.46 which explained about 95% of the total variation as being very closely to the linear trend y = 0.693*t + 11.81. Since a question remained about the role of cyclic patterns in the overall temporal dynamics, when the time series has been decycled for previously known cycles of 18 and 62 years, new cycles with periods T = 16 and TH = 38.25 years emerged, however, the patterns of the trend changed and its significance decreased. When the time series has been detrended (the linear trend has been removed), a new hypercycle with a period TH = 35.25 years has appeared. All cycles have been significant at p<0.05. It has been postulated that infrannual cyclicity of the time series variations in the range of 16-18 years are linked to the increasing trend while the «first-degree» hypercyclicity of 35-38 years in time series represents the increasing trend itself (i.e. the increasing trend during 1952-1985 is only a part of a long-term increasing cyclic trend). It is not known, however, whether the cyclic patterns are an intrinsic feature of the incidence time-series or are provoked by external cyclic factors (environmental pollution, heliogeophysical activity, life-style changes, etc.), or both. Finally three main scenarios for the temporal dynamics have been compared and estimates of crude incidence rates for lung cancer in Bulgaria (1986-1992) have been developed.

Dimitrov BD. Infrannual cycles in variations of the incidence rate for lung cancer in Bulgaria (1952-1985): an example of a complex time-series approach. In: N. Madjirova, editor. Chronobiology and Biometeorology in Bulgarian Medicine. First Edition, Plovdiv: MAKROS 2000 Publishing House; 2001: 75-80.

Possible associations of incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) with solar UVR have been suggested (Cartwright e.a. 1994, etc.). Also, incidence for both malignant melanoma of the skin (SMM) and NHL has shown a rapid increase over the last 10-15 years worldwide. On the other hand, cyclicity in variations of incidence rates for SMM was reported (Houghton e.a. 1981, Dimitrov 1998, etc.). The present study analysed trends and variations in incidence of SMM and NHL for the USA. Annual age-standardized incidence rates for SMM and NHL (SEER database, 1973-1989) were compared. Linear and non-linear regression modeling, periodogram regression analysis and parametric tests were applied (Dimitrov e.a. 1995). The analysis denoted non-linear trends of increasing incidence for both SMM and NHL. Cyclic variations in incidence rates for SMM in US females were reported previously (Dimitrov 1993) and now were confirmed also for other strata of the population (mainly, cycles with a period T = 8 divided by 9 years, p < 0.05) as well as revealed for NHL (mainly, cycles with a period T = 8 divided by 9 years). This cyclicity was significant at 95% only for black US males (Table 1). After decycling for hypercyclicity of 20-35 years (long-term cyclic trends), however, significant high-frequency infrannual variations of 3 divided by 5 years appeared in NHL (latter cyclic variations, for instance, were observed in the sunspots index, solar UVR and stratospheric ozone). Also, significant cycles of 11-13 years appeared for white US males. Similar cyclicity of 9 divided by 11 years was observed in sunspots number over the same interval. Trends of NHL were very similar to that of SMM, as were the variations. This study might be considered a contribution to the hypothesis on possible associations of incidence for NHL with heliogeophysical phenomena.

Multycomponent cyclicity in mothly cuicides(period T=18,46 and 198 months was found and close close similarity with heliogeophysical activity (HGA) suggested by Dimitrov in 1999. The current report aimed at scutinizing the results on suicide annual cyclicity(seasonality) in Slovenia as reported by Dravecz et al in 2007 as well as at analyzing suicide data from Finland in this regards..We postulated that (i) trans year ( 12-24 months) or far trans-year long term cycle of suicide might interfere with their seasonality; and (ii)association to environmental factors with alike cyclicity ( e.g. HGA,temperature) could exist.

Our previous studies revealed cyclicity in the incidence rate of skin malignant melanoma (SMM; ICD9, Dx:172) in the Czech Republic (period T=7.50-7.63 years), UK (T=11.00 years) and Bulgaria (T=12.20 years). Incidences compared with the sunspot index Rz (lag-period dT=+2, +4, +6, +10 or +12 years) have indicated that maximal rates are most likely to appear on descending slopes of the 11-year solar cycle, i.e., out of phase. We summarized and explored more deeply these cyclic variations and discussed their possible associations with heliogeophysical activity (HGA) components exhibiting similar cyclicity.
Annual incidences of SMM from 5 countries (Czech Republic, UK, Bulgaria, USA and Canada) over various time spans during the years 1964-1992 were analyzed and their correlations with cyclic Rz (sunspot number) and aa (planetary geomagnetic activity) indices were summarized. Periodogram regression analysis with trigonometric approximation and phase-correlation analysis were applied.
Previous findings on SMM for the Czech Republic, UK and Bulgaria have been validated, and cyclic patterns have been revealed for USA (T=8.63 years, P<0.05) and Canada (Ontario, T=9.91 years, P<0.10). Also, various 'hypercycles' were established (T=45.5, 42.0, 48.25, 34.5 and 26.5 years, respectively) describing long-term cyclic incidence patterns. The association of SMM for USA and Canada with Rz (dT=+6 and +7 years, respectively) and aa (dT=-10 and +9 years, respectively) was described. Possible interactions of cyclic non-photic influences (UV irradiation, Schumann resonance signal, low-frequency geomagnetic fluctuations) with brain waves absorbance, neuronal calcium dynamics, neuro-endocrine axis modulation, melatonin/serotonin disbalance and skin neuro-immunity impairment as likely causal pathways in melanoma appearance, were also discussed.
The above findings on cyclicity and temporal association of SMM with cyclic environmental factors could not only allow for better forecasting models but also lead to a better understanding of melanoma aetiology.

The concept of heliogeophysical imprinting has been introduced by Kaznacheev et al. (7) to denote the phenomenon of appearance of later life consequences due to environmental influences during early ontogenesis (the period of intrauterine life and that of the newborn infant up to 1 year of age). Obviously, the time of birth is of crucial importance to health and disease of the human organism in its later life, not only as shown in studies on famine and health4, but also if environmental factors are considered. This concept has shown to be useful when applied in studies at both the population and individual levels (8). Deryapa & Trofimov have found that, out of 62 healthy men (aged 18 to 23) influenced by a constant magnetic field, those born in the years of maximal solar activity have shown significantly higher rate of haemodynamic changes compared to others born in the years of minimal one.......

In a sample of 1769 female patients with malignant melanoma of the skin from the North West Region (U.K.), those born in and about the years of sunspots' maxima have shown 23% higher risk when compared to controls (OR=1.23, p<0.05)11. On the other hand, Guering-Galaktionova & Kupriyanov (12) have suggested in 1971 that maximal rates of breast cancer are most likely to appear about minima of the 11-year solar cycle (sunspot index Rz, or the relative number of sunspots on the Sun) but no cycle of cancer rates has been then described. Our studies, however, have shown cyclic patterns of variations in the incidence rate for breast cancer in Bulgaria, North West Region (U.K.), U.S.A. and Canada (e.g., for Bulgaria a cycle with a period T=17.625 years was revealed, etc.) (13). It is also peculiar to note the 17.6-year period found recently in birth-cohort time series constructed from breast cancer mortality figures in U.S.A. (1940-1990) (14). Our studies (13-15) have confirmed the results of Guering-Galaktionova & Kupriyanov (12)......