In an April 2018 press conference, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disclosed that Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency had conducted a raid on a warehouse in Iran the previous January, removing a half-ton of files cataloguing Tehran’s...
moreIn an April 2018 press conference, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disclosed that Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency had conducted a raid on a warehouse in Iran the previous January, removing a half-ton of files cataloguing Tehran’s efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. The covert archive contained a wealth of new information that contradicts longstanding assumptions about Iran’s nuclear program. While a 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate judged “with high confidence” that Iran “halted its nuclear weapons program” in 2003, the archive shows that the program continued, albeit in a more circumscribed and diffuse manner.
Specifically, the archive identifies additional nuclear facilities, equipment, and activities previously unknown to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN body tasked with monitoring Iran’s nuclear program and verifying its key nuclear-related commitments. Israeli officials estimate that the Jewish state seized only 20 to 50 percent of the archive’s contents, suggesting that the IAEA’s knowledge base likely has additional gaps.
The IAEA harbors an obligation to remedy these gaps by securing prompt access to the facilities, equipment, and materials described in the archive. This responsibility stems directly from the IAEA’s legal mandate, as established by the multiple non-proliferation agreements that Iran has concluded. A careful review of these accords shows that the IAEA has no pretext for inaction or delay. Further investigation of Iran’s nuclear program remains necessary to ensure that no covert nuclear activity persists today.
This report assesses that the IAEA, despite its clear duty, has not demonstrably satisfied its mandate. In the years since the finalization of the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the IAEA has provided insufficient transparency and clarity about its inspections in Iran. This opacity raises questions about the diligence of the IAEA’s investigations – particularly its probe of sites, equipment, and activities documented in the archive.
The agency’s approach also invites criticism that political considerations have interfered with its obligation to serve as an objective, technical body. In fact, the actions and public statements of IAEA leaders convey a hesitation to scrutinize key Iranian activities that potentially violate the JCPOA, lest the resulting evidence undermine the accord’s viability.
This report begins with an overview of the archive’s contents and their significance, showing that they offer actionable findings relevant to the enforcement of Tehran’s current nonproliferation agreements. The report then presents a survey of these agreements – the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (more commonly known as the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, or NPT), the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA), the CSA’s Additional Protocol (AP), and the JCPOA – and the core legal obligations they impose on Iran, the IAEA, and other countries.
This report subsequently examines the IAEA’s pre-JCPOA efforts to inspect and report on Iran’s nuclear program pursuant to the NPT, CSA, and AP. The agency’s actions established a precedent not only for timely responses to disclosures of new information, but also for comparatively detailed reporting and transparency about Tehran’s steps – or lack thereof – to fulfill its commitments. This report then appraises the IAEA’s post-JCPOA efforts, noting both possible failures to inspect key sites and a significant decline in transparency and clarity in reporting.
Based on this analysis, the report urges the IAEA to take the following steps, which are indispensable for the fulfillment of its mandate:
• Inspect promptly all Iranian sites, equipment, and materials discussed in the archive.
• Strengthen its investigation of past and present issues concerning the possible military dimensions (PMD) of Iran’s nuclear program.
• Issue comprehensive, transparent reports of Iran’s nuclear activities.
• Require Tehran to supply the IAEA with all documents in the archive that Israel failed to extract from the warehouse, along with any related documents.
The report also urges the Trump administration and Congress to take the following actions:
• Demand the IAEA’s implementation of the above steps.
• Conduct a public information campaign highlighting the findings in the archive and its implications for IAEA inspections.
• Call on the IAEA Board of Governors to exercise greater oversight of the IAEA’s activities.
