przegląd strategiczny

The subject of the paper is reflections on the consequences of Brexit for the functioning of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The author explains what this border means when the United Kingdom is no longer a member of the European Union, and thus the border may be a barrier to the free movement of people, goods, capital and services. At the same time, it is stressed that the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union will have a significant impact on the change of the function of this border, which from then on is no longer an internal border of the Union. The aim of the paper is therefore to analyse the consequences of this change, with a simultaneous indication of different models of the UK’s functioning with relation to the European Union and their impact on the British-Irish relations, especially with regard to the various dimensions of the border as a barrier. The article presents various scenarios of solutions that will determine their mutual relations ...

The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of the foreign trade component on the formation of national economic security. Transformations occurring in the world’s economic development, the deterioration of the global financial environment, and increasing geopolitical tensions have intensified the main risks to the development of the global economy in today’s conditions. Therefore, national governments are actively using a wide range of tools to ensure economic growth and the appropriate level of competitiveness of their respective economies while ensuring national security, which is relevant for the study of the external component of national economic security. To achieve the aim, general scientific and specific research methods are used, such as methods of analysis, abstraction and synthesis (in the study of protectionism as a policy and practice, instruments of neo-protectionism); methods of classification and systematic generalization (to systematize the forms of protec...

The article analyzes the phenomenon of digital interference with national political systems in the conditions of the modern information society and the evolution of the Internet as a space of political communications. It is shown that digital intervention is relevant but at the same time a complex multidimensional phenomenon of contemporary politics. In many respects, the potential of the digital interference phenomenon is closely related to the substantive and functional features of the functioning and transformation of the contemporary Internet, which has been actively used when changing political regimes in many countries. The initiatives of countries to form the sovereign national segments of the Internet space are, on the one hand, an attempt to protect their political systems from external influence and invasion, to ensure their own political stability, and on the other hand, they pose risks to the democratic potential of the Internet. The article substantiates the thesis that...

Rekomendowana w SPBN polityka bezpieczeństwa sprowadza się zasadniczo do prewencyjnego myślenia i działania. W podejściu tym można dostrzec przesunięcie środka ciężkości z modelu sił zbrojnych o charakterze ekspedycyjnym w kierunku zwiększenia zdolności obronnych. Ponadto dąży się do usprawnienia podsystemu obronnego poprzez wyposażenie go w rozbudowane zdolności przeciwzaskoczeniowe. Stąd też priorytety modernizacyjne sił zbrojnych kładą nacisk na zwiększenie mobilności i siły rażenia, lepsze zinfor-matyzowanie i " zrobotyzowanie " pola walki oraz wsparcie procesu kierowania i dowodzenia. Chodzi zatem o wejście w posiadanie narzędzi i zdolności, które pozwalałyby przede wszystkim uprzedzić powstanie sytuacji politycznie niejasnych, a w chwili ich zaistnienia i być może osamotnienia sojusznicze-go nie dać się całkowicie zaskoczyć i natychmiast odpowiednio zareagować.

Soon after attaining independence on October 1, 1960, the newly created nation-state – Nigeria had to wrestle with post-independent political realities. These combined with the legacies of colonial rule, and the prevalence of ethno-religious politics, led the country into civil war in 1967. Since 1960, Nigeria has experimented with different forms of government and achieved some degree of economic growth but is still plagued by the agitation of self-determination in the form of secessionist campaigns, be it the Biafra or the Oduduwa and Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). To place the discussion in perspective, the paper reviews the existing literature on the subject and also discusses Edward Azar’s protracted social conflict (PSC) theory as the theoretical base. Upon laying the theoretical foundation, the paper situates and evaluates the agitation for self-determination in Nigeria in the light of PSC. Lastly, the paper concludes that instead of seeking self-det...

The hypothesis of this research is that Russia has been imposing its influence on Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Before the political and military crisis in 2013, it was an indirect influence, whereas since 2014 it has been a direct impact in many spheres. It is necessary to underline that Ukraine has always been split into two parts in terms of foreign policy priorities, language, religion, and culture. This fact was mentioned by Samuel Huntington, who predicted an intense crisis in bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine in his work Clash of Civilizations. There were two parties in Ukraine that were widely supported in South-Eastern Ukraine, namely the Party of Regions and the Communist Party. The former never spoke about the integration of Ukraine as part of Russian integrational projects because its politicians were afraid of aggressive Russian capital. So they only used pro-Russian rhetoric to win elections. The Communist Party openly backed integration ...

The literature on conflict management offers two explanations of why the effectiveness of third parties to settle militarized disputes differs. The structural research tradition focuses on conflict characteristics, while the individualist approaches highlight the background, skills and power of a mediator, as well as the mediation strategy. This article reconciles these two approaches, and examines especially the effectiveness of mediation strategies. Accounting for the selection of mediation and the success of mediation attempts, we use the CWM 1945–2004 dataset. The analysis demonstrates that mediators who were able to pursue a determined strategy face a higher chance of success.

The social security of people affected by unemployment, and their families, is provided by various means of monetary instruments and support in kind. The fundamental element of social security, however, is a system of unemployment benefits. The literature of the subject presents contradictory opinions on the motivational function of benefits and their influence on unemployment levels. Advocates of neoclassical concepts stress the adverse influence of benefits on the level of unemployment and the time out of work. Representatives of Keynesian thinking point to the lack of a negative correlation between the level of benefits and the unemployment rate. Relative agreement between studies and opinions can be found in the observations and conclusions concerning the relation between the length of time on benefits and its adverse impact on re-entering employment. These conclusions find corroboration in the global statistics of Eurostat, detailed studies conducted in Germany and the Polish a...

Turkey and the United States of America have been strategic partners for over seven decades. Nevertheless, their relationship has not always been a smooth one, and the two countries have encountered temporary bilateral crises from time to time. In spite of the challenges, over the years, the NATO allies – the United States and Turkey have continued to reaffirm their commitment to cooperate with each other as “strategic partners.” However, the ensuing Syrian crisis has brought the relationship between the allies to an all-time historic low. This study examines Turkey-US relations in the context of the ongoing Syrian conflict using a conflict analysis framework. With this framework, we analyze the historical background, identify the root causes of the crisis and conduct an actor analysis. Based on our findings, we provide policy recommendations to de-escalate and transform the current crisis in US-Turkey relations in order to both restore their mutual trust and find new ways to cooper...

The South China Sea is the most inflammable area in the region of Southeast Asia due to its natural resources, commercial and political importance. The ASEAN countries directly involved in the dispute have conflicting interests, mainly related to their relationship with China, a pretender for the whole area. Therefore, attemps to settle the dispute are not successful. On July 12, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued a verdict taking into account the Law of the Sea, in which it accepted the Philippines’s arguments and rejected China’s claims based on historical arguments against the islands in the South China Sea. China did not take part in the trial and found its sentences non-binding but at the same time it has entered into a dialogue with ASEAN on the code of conduct (COC) in the South China Sea. The purpose of the article is to discuss how the parties are involved in the conflict, progress towards signing the Code of Conduct for the Parties in the South Ch...

The article outlines cursory viewpoint on Transnistria as the focus of the Russian Federation policy. Russia pursues political interests in Transnistria connected with its geostrategic ambitions on the post-Soviet state. It is revealed that Moscow has a great impact on the life of Transnistria and cooperates with Tiraspol in political, military, social, cultural, and economic spheres. It is discussed that Russian military presence in this de facto state helps not only to control Transnistria but also Moldova concerning its geopolitical choice. In the article Russia’s activity concerning conflict resolution in Transnistria is shown. A special attention is paid to the Kozak Plan aiming at unification of Transnistria and Moldova, according to which too-extensive rights to Transnistria had to be given. Although this plan was not implemented, in fact now its idea is promoted gradually through convergence of Moldova and Transnistria. In the article it is stressed that russification of the...

This article aims at adressing several research issues. Firstly, to present offensive realism as a proper research tool to analyse US-China rivalry. Secondly, the author discusses the theory of “China’s peaceful rise” and I argues that it smoothly overlapped with the US strategy of liberal hegemony. Thirdly, He presents and defends the argument that China does not rise peacefully. Fourthly, the author claims that China wants to became a regional hegemon in South-East Asia and the USA according to offensive realism cannot let it happen. Last but not least the author considers the arguments that are frequently used to support the theory of “China’s peaceful rise” and explains why they fail to depict the current and predict the future nature of US-China relations. In this article the author employed the following research methods: historical, descriptive and decision making methods.

The aim of this article is to review the strategic partnership of the European Union-Japan in the context of the changing global order, exploring economic, normative and security dimensions. This leads to wider reflections allowing us to theorize international relations with regards to the concept of strategic partnerships. The research question concentrates on what the foundations of the strategic partnership between the European Union and Japan are, and how it answers the challenges in the three above indicated fields. The hypothesis is formulated from the perspective of strategic partnership theory. Methodologically, the work is based on the analysis of primary and secondary sources, as well as on qualitative methods implemented in the form of semi-structured interviews. The key findings reveal that the changing global order and international environment have pushed both partners to create a strategic partnership that has spilled over from economic relations to the normative, pol...

Turkey and the United States of America have been strategic partners for over seven decades. Nevertheless, their relationship has not always been a smooth one, and the two countries have encountered temporary bilateral crises from time to time. In spite of the challenges, over the years, the NATO allies – the United States and Turkey have continued to reaffirm their commitment to cooperate with each other as “strategic partners.” However, the ensuing Syrian crisis has brought the relationship between the allies to an all-time historic low. This study examines Turkey-US relations in the context of the ongoing Syrian conflict using a conflict analysis framework. With this framework, we analyze the historical background, identify the root causes of the crisis and conduct an actor analysis. Based on our findings, we provide policy recommendations to de-escalate and transform the current crisis in US-Turkey relations in order to both restore their mutual trust and find new ways to cooper...

W artykule zaprezentowano i oceniono strategiczne podejście do problemu piractwa morskiego i jego implikacji w kontekście bezpieczeństwa transportu morskiego. Ukazano problem piractwa w najważniejszych regionach jego występowania, intensywność występowania tego problemu w latach 90. XX wieku oraz jego współczesny aspekt. Zaprezentowano i oceniono działania społeczności międzynarodowej w kontekście zwalczania piractwa morskiego oraz pomocy dla państw dysfunkcyjnych na przykładzie Somalii. Artykuł kończy się wnioskami i prawdopodobnym rozwojem omawianego procederu w kolejnych latach, w których Autorka prognozuje, że wdrożone, jak do tej pory działania przyczyniły się do ograniczenia liczby ataków, ale w niewielkim stopniu przyczyniły się do poprawy sytuacji ekonomicznej ludności somalijskiej. W związku z zanotowaniem rosnącej liczby ataków w latach 2015 i 2016, kolejne lata mogą przynieść dalszą falę renesansu piractwa. Jeżeli udzielana pomoc nie zostanie zintensyfikowana i precyzyjni...

Pursuant to Article 10 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland, executive power is vested in the President of the Republic of Poland and the Council of Ministers. Implemented in Poland, the dualism of the executive branch creates a problem with the division of duties and competence between the cabinet and the head of state.  This paper analyses the division of powers within the executive branch in the areas of state security and foreign policy. The analysis of the constitutional provisions and the political practice indicates that the model of cooperation between the President and the cabinet as adopted in the Constitution of 1997 is ineffective and leads to political conflicts. In view of the Polish political conditions, it is advisable to amend the Constitution in order to move away from the mixed model towards either the presidential model or the parliamentary-cabinet model of the executive branch of government.

The purpose of the article is to show how the type of political system (authoritarian regime) influences the shape of regionalism in the Middle East and to what extent this political system determines the features of cooperation between Arab states. To this end, a hypothesis was put forward according to which the authoritarian political system is a key obstacle to the successful integration and unification of the Middle East. Middle Eastern regionalism serves to protect and legitimize the political power of authoritarian leaders, whereas in Europe it guides to peace, stabilization and development. Authoritarian regionalism tends to reduce democratic ambitions and maintain the authoritarian status quo. In order to verify the hypothesis, the following research questions were posed. First, how is the type of political system related to successful integration? Second, can autocracies work effectively together? To verify the hypothesis and answer the research questions, the author referr...

Turkey and the United States of America have been strategic partners for over seven decades. Nevertheless, their relationship has not always been a smooth one, and the two countries have encountered temporary bilateral crises from time to time. In spite of the challenges, over the years, the NATO allies – the United States and Turkey have continued to reaffirm their commitment to cooperate with each other as “strategic partners.” However, the ensuing Syrian crisis has brought the relationship between the allies to an all-time historic low. This study examines Turkey-US relations in the context of the ongoing Syrian conflict using a conflict analysis framework. With this framework, we analyze the historical background, identify the root causes of the crisis and conduct an actor analysis. Based on our findings, we provide policy recommendations to de-escalate and transform the current crisis in US-Turkey relations in order to both restore their mutual trust and find new ways to cooper...

The aim of the article is to present the results of studies carried out in Wielkopolska regarding the perception of security by local communities, declared priorities and the impact of public debate and the media on these priorities. The studies were carried out in the former administrative region of Konin in 2015, 2016 and 2017. As the analysis shows, the narrative regarding individual and collective threats presented by politicians and the media had a large impact on individual priorities. This is evident from the assessment of the threat to national security and the assessment of such phenomena as terrorism, immigrants or the possibility of aggression from the East. With regard to individual security and changing priorities in this area, the impact of stabilization resulting from the implementation of social programs of the Law and Justice Party, with a special focus on the “Family 500 plus” program, is clearly noticeable. The results of the studies explicitly recommend their con...

The purpose of the study is to review the academic literature on food security issues in order to examine the indicators of rational and minimal nutrition, facilitating the analysis of the existing system of indicators by which to assess the state of the food security system in a country. The aim of the article is to investigate and demonstrate the imperatives behind the formation of Ukraine’s national (food) security in the context of globalization. National food security in the broad sense should be considered as the state of the economy, and more narrowly – as the guaranteed ability of a state to meet the needs of the population by providing each citizen with the required volume, range and quality of food at a level that ensures the health and intellectual development of the individual, based on the principles of self-sufficiency of basic products and their economic and physical accessibility, regardless of the influence of external and internal factors. The Global Food Security ...

Nagorno-Karabakh is currently considered the most militarized area in the South Caucasus region. The key political decision-makers of Armenia come from Stepanakert. The issue of the future of this territory is an important element of any electoral campaign in Armenia. Any plans to make concessions to the Azerbaijani side are opposed by Armenian nationalist and veteran circles. The memory of the armed conflict with Azerbaijan remains vivid and is reflected in numerous commemorative initiatives in the NKR, as exemplified by the Memorial Museum of the Perished Soldiers and the Memorial Museum – The Union of Relatives of Missing Warriors of the NKR in Stepanakert. These institutions are a synthesis of museum and funeral practices. To quote Aleksander Wallis, replacing ‘monuments’ with ‘museums,’ it may be concluded that they “were created to historicize current events” which “evoke the greatest emotions, tensions and conflicts” and stem from “profound moral needs.” However, unlike monum...

W Azji Centralnej współwystępują czynniki zewnętrze, jak i wewnętrzne mające wpływ na rozwój terroryzmu. Szczególne sąsiedztwo z Afganistanem, jak i Pakistanem umożliwiają tworzenie sieci powiązań pomiędzy różnymi grupami. Kotlina Fergańska stanowi przykład czynników wewnętrznych, takich jak ubóstwo, brak odpowiedniej infrastruktury oraz konflikty etniczne jako odpowiedni grunt dla rozwoju terroryzmu.

In the era of extremely rapid technological development, the state is directing particular interest towards security in cyberspace and cyber security is becoming a dominant value in its policy. Such a policy may cause a number of negative consequences, such as the willingness to introduce legal regulations that may limit civil rights and freedoms, and in the next stage may lead to violence. As a result, their implementation causes excessive, and often unauthorized, interference of public authorities in the sphere of citizens’ privacy. It should also be stressed that the global nature of the Internet means that mechanisms based on territoriality in a rather limited way ensure effective protection of individual rights against violations by public authorities in cyberspace. In addition to significant physical damage and direct financial losses, the mere likelihood of future cyber threats may cause social distrust and unwillingness to work with new technologies.

The events and processes of the recent decades drive us to awake from the hypnotic illusion of the ‘end of history’. The ‘return of history’ is not only a necessary step that has to be taken, but it is ontologically inevitable. Blinded by the mobile army of metaphors, metonyms and anthropomorphisms, we need to see that the processes of the 21st century are no different from the old politics which were recorded in history, thus it is unavoidable to think within the ‘dialectics of Old and New’. Globalization, relativization of values, removal of borders and the re-narration of borders in previously unseen areas lead us to an existential zero point. Borders play significant self-determining and self-definition role in our life and society, thus their relocation, reorientation and blurring of their meaning is a question that has to be analysed and closely watched. Together with the narration of borders, the narration of security plays major role. Migration and the question of open, perm...

The literature on conflict management offers two explanations of why the effectiveness of third parties to settle militarized disputes differs. The structural research tradition focuses on conflict characteristics, while the individualist approaches highlight the background, skills and power of a mediator, as well as the mediation strategy. This article reconciles these two approaches, and examines especially the effectiveness of mediation strategies. Accounting for the selection of mediation and the success of mediation attempts, we use the CWM 1945–2004 dataset. The analysis demonstrates that mediators who were able to pursue a determined strategy face a higher chance of success.

The aim of the article is to explain the key definitions connected with water security and to analyse state relations in the context of water issues. In this context therefore water can be seen to be a precious resource because there it has no substitute. Thus the lack of water security is emerging as one of the major barriers for economic and social growth in developing countries and a source of domestic conflicts. On the other hand, water-related events might result in international cooperation, as Kofi Annan noticed during the celebration of World Water Day: “Fierce national competition over water resources has prompted fears that water issues contain the seeds of violent conflict. [...] If all world’s peoples work together, a secure and sustainable water future can be ours”. What is certain, in the near future any environmental security planning will have to take into consideration the prime issue of water security.