Preliminary Evaluation of Potential Induced Seismicity Risk at a Nearshore Carbon Storage Candidate Site

Abstract. Geologic carbon storage, as well as other geo-energy applications, such as geothermal energy, seasonal natural gas storage and subsurface energy storage imply fluid injection and/or extraction that causes changes in rock stress field and may induce (micro)seismicity. If felt, seismicity has a negative effect on public perception and may jeopardize wellbore stability and damage infrastructure. Thus, induced earthquakes should be minimized to successfully deploy geo-energies. However, numerous processes may trigger induced seismicity, which contribute to making it complex and translates into a limited forecast ability of current predictive models. We review the triggering mechanisms of induced seismicity. Specifically, we analyze (1) the impact of pore pressure evolution and the effect that properties of the injected fluid have on fracture and/or fault stability; (2) non-isothermal effects caused by the fact that the injected fluid usually reaches the injection formation at a lower temperature than that of the rock, inducing rock contraction, thermal stress reduction and stress redistribution around the cooled region; (3) local stress changes induced when low-permeability faults cross the injection formation, which may reduce their stability and eventually cause fault reactivation; (4) stress transfer caused by seismic or aseismic slip; and (5) geochemical effects, which may be especially relevant in carbonate-containing formations. We also review characterization techniques developed by the authors to reduce the uncertainty in rock properties and subsurface heterogeneity both for the screening of injection sites and for the operation of projects. Based on the review, we propose a methodology based on proper site characterization, monitoring and pressure management to minimize induced seismicity.

Zoback and Gorelick [(2012) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(26):10164–10168] have claimed that geologic carbon storage in deep saline formations is very likely to trigger large induced seismicity, which may damage the caprock and ruin the objective of keeping CO2 stored deep underground. We argue that felt induced earthquakes due to geologic CO2 storage are unlikely because (i) sedimentary formations, which are softer than the crystalline basement, are rarely critically stressed; (ii) the least stable situation occurs at the beginning of injection, which makes it easy to control; (iii) CO2 dissolution into brine may help in reducing overpressure; and (iv) CO2 will not flow across the caprock because of capillarity, but brine will, which will reduce overpressure further. The latter two mechanisms ensure that overpressures caused by CO2 injection will dissipate in a moderate time after injection stops, hindering the occurrence of postinjection induced seismicity. Furthermore, even if microseismicity were induced, CO2 leakage through fault reactivation would be unlikely because the high clay content of caprocks ensures a reduced permeability and increased entry pressure along the localized deformation zone. For these reasons, we contend that properly sited and managed geologic carbon storage in deep saline formations remains a safe option to mitigate anthropogenic climate change.

Abstract Raspberry Shake (RS) seismographs offer the potential for affordable and citizen-led seismic monitoring in areas with few publicly available seismometers, especially in previously quiescent regions experiencing induced seismicity. However, their scientific and regulatory potential remains largely untested. We examine the ground motions recorded by 11 RS and one broadband station within 15 km of the United Downs Deep Geothermal Power (UDDGP) project in Cornwall, United Kingdom, to evaluate the RS network’s suitability to provide an initial ground-motion assessment of the region. To date, the British Geological Survey (BGS) has reported 232 induced events originating at UDDGP since flow testing began in summer 2020, with two events exceeding local magnitude (ML) 1.5. Although the RS accelerometers are too noisy for UDDGP’s microseismic events, the vertical geophones are useful. Peak ground velocity observations are consistent with relevant ground-motion models, whereas peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are greater than predicted. Regional trends in the PGA levels are likely caused by path effects. Finally, RS estimates of ML are similar to those reported by the BGS. For sparse national seismic networks, RS stations can enable a preliminary evaluation of seismic events and their ground motions.

Abstract. Geologic carbon storage, as well as other geo-energy applications, such as geothermal energy, seasonal natural gas storage and subsurface energy storage, imply fluid injection/extraction that causes changes in the effective stress field and induces (micro)seismicity. If felt, seismicity has a negative effect on public perception and may jeopardize wellbore stability and damage infrastructure. Thus, induced earthquakes should be minimized to successfully deploy geo-energies. However, the processes that trigger induced seismicity are not fully understood, which translates into a limited forecast ability of current predictive models. We aim at understanding the triggering mechanisms of induced seismicity and to develop methodologies to minimize its occurrence through dimensional and numerical analysis. We find that the properties of the injected fluid, e.g., water or CO2, have a significant effect on pressure buildup evolution and thus, on fracture/fault stability. In addition to pressure changes, the injected fluid usually reaches the injection formation at a lower temperature than that of the rock, inducing rock contraction, thermal stress reduction and stress redistribution around the cooled region. If low-permeable faults cross the injection formation, local stress changes are induced around them which may reduce their stability and eventually cause fault reactivation. To minimize the risk of inducing felt seismicity, we have developed characterization techniques to reduce the uncertainty on rock properties and subsurface heterogeneity both for the screening of injection sites and for the operation of projects. Overall, we contend that felt induced seismicity can be minimized provided that a proper site characterization, monitoring and pressure management are performed.

We describe preliminary attempts to fit a mathematical function to the slow-component eye velocity (SCV) over the time course of caloric-induced nystagmus. Initially, we consider a Weibull equation with three parameters. These parameters are estimated by a least-squares procedure to fit digitized SCV data. We present examples of SCV data and fitted curves to show how adjustments in the parameters of the model affect the fitted curve. The best fitting parameters are presented for curves fit to 120 warm caloric responses. The fitting parameters and the efficacy of the fitted curves are compared before and after the SCV data were smoothed to reduce response variability. We also consider a more flexible four-parameter Weibull equation that, for 98% of the smoothed caloric responses, yields fits that describe the data more precisely than a line through the mean. Finally, we consider advantages and problems in fitting the Weibull function to caloric data.