Initiating Coverage On UBI LTD
Initiating Coverage On UBI LTD
Initiating Coverage On UBI LTD
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Banking
Union Bank is among the top six public sector banks in India in terms of its balance sheet size. Currently it accounts for ~3.5%+ market share in business done by Indian scheduled commercial banks. With a strong presence in western India and over 2,910 branches, the bank is well poised to capture the uptick in economic environment. The bank with 50%+ of its lending to corporate segment will be a key beneficiary of rising corporate credit demand. We expect the bank to realize a loan growth of 22% in the current fiscal. Union Bank has made extensive investment in technology, manpower training, coupled with robust credit processing/ monitoring systems, which enables it to grow faster than the industry. The bank pioneers in implementing core banking solutions and currently has all the branches on the CBS platform. With improvement in the Credit-Deposit and CASA ratios, coupled with increased focus on high yielding SME and retail loans, we expect significant improvement in NIMs. Valuation The bank is going strong in its core banking business and has been growing above industry over the past few years. Return ratios are very strong with RoE of above 25% and RoA of 1.2%. Hence, we value the bank at 1.7x FY12E Adj. BV of ` 238.7 and arrive at a target price of ` 410, which would give 20% upside and recommend BUY rating on the stock. Key Financials Year Ended March FY09
3,813.6 1482.6 1,726.5 34.2 10.0 2.4 27.2% 1.2%
Market Data
Market Cap (` Crs) 52 week High/Low Sensex Nifty Average Volume
Shareholding Pattern
Govt of India, 55.43% Others, 14.5%
FY10
4,192.4 1974.8 2,074.9 41.1 8.3 2.0 26.2% 1.2%
FY11E
5,802.2 1997.7 2,548.7 50.5 6.8 1.6 26.1% 1.2%
FY12E
7,092.0 2128.6 3,023.0 59.8 5.7 1.3 25.4% 1.2%
NII Other Income Net Profit EPS(`) P/E(x) P/BV ROE ROA ABV per share (`)
Source: IGSL Research
anshuman.jain@inventuregrowth.com
Divya Kant
divya.kant@inventuregrowth.com
137.1
167.9
193.8
238.7
Company Description
Union Bank is a state-owned bank with a balance sheet size of over ` 9trn. The bank floated an IPO in August 2002 and an FPO in February 2006. Recently Government of India (GOI) infused `1.1b as PNCPS tier-I capital. UBI is a PSU bank with 55.43% share capital held by the GOI. With over 2,910 branches and 2,327 ATMs the bank has a pan- India presence with a higher concentration in the western region in India. Union Bank is one of the pioneer public sector banks, which launched Core Banking Solution in 2002 and has all the branches on the CBS platform. Over the years, the Bank has been a front runner among public sector banks in modern-day banking trends.
Project Nav Nirman was introduced by the bank for transforming the bank into a customer-centric marketing organization by leveraging technology, redefining business strategies and re-engineering the business processes. UBI has been efficiently using its manpower and other resources to ensure enhanced profitability. This is clearly evident from parameters such as business per employee and business per branch which have inched up significantly. UBIs major strengths are its strong return ratios, better asset quality with high Provision Coverage, well diversified loan portfolio, and better cost efficiency. Furthermore, the bank has an aggressive branch expansion plan (adding 500 branches each year) which would boost CASA levels in the long term and help contain cost of funds. UBI has ventured into the life insurance business in a joint venture with Bank of India and Dai-chi Life. The bank has also tied up with KMB Asset Management to start its asset management business.
UBIs major strengths are its strong return ratios, and better asset quality with high Provision Coverage.
Investment Rationale
Return ratios to remain strong UBIs return ratios have been highest among the PSU banks, and we expect the higher return ratios to sustain. UBIs ROE of ~26% is one of the best in the industry, with peer ROEs clubbed at 16-20%. The bank has consistently delivered RoA of over 1.2% and RoE of over 22% for FY08-10. We expect the bank to post RoA of 1.2% and RoE of ~25%+ for FY12E. RoA is expected to remain around same levels of 1.2% in FY11 and FY12. Return on equity though would contract slightly over FY10-12, still would remain the best amongst PSB peers. Superior margins due to a solid deposit franchise coupled with significant improvement in core fee income (21% growth) is likely to support strong return ratios. Loan growth out-performance expected to continue UBI expects continuation of strong growth in advances in FY11. The management targets 25% credit growth in the current year, way above RBIs growth forecast of 20%. However we expect the bank to realize a loan growth of 22% over the current fiscal. The banks confidence to grow at a significantly higher rate than industry mainly stems from improving credit demand, tightening liquidity situation, modest branch addition plans and the various initiatives (Nav Nirman program) taken by the management over the past few years to enhance the capacity for growth. The management expects its deposits to grow by 22% in FY11. Furthermore, the bank targets to open 500 branches each in FY11 and FY12, in order to achieve CASA target of 35% by March 2012. This will boost the low cost CASA deposits, thereby reducing the cost of funds and stabilizing the NIMs in the 3% range. C/D ratio to remain firm UBIs C/D ratio expanded marginally by ~60bps y-o-y to 70.2% as compared to 69.6% reported in FY09. The rise in CD ratio was mainly supported by the strong growth in advances. With credit growth expected to be around 22-23% in the coming fiscals, we believe that the C/D ratio will be maintained at the same levels.
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
The management has set a target of 25% credit growth in the current fiscal.
Nav Nirman program proved successful For the past couple of years, Union Bank has been growing above industry average after the induction of fresh young talent under the Nav Nirman program. The program mainly targeted on improving customer service, network expansion, introduction of new products, stimulating fee income growth, up-gradation of technology and freeing of branches by developing and promoting alternate delivery channels such as ATMs, Internet Banking, Mobile Banking and Phone Banking. Some of the initiatives undertaken as a part of banks Nav Nirman program were creation of ULPs and SARAL centers for efficient processing of Retail and SME loans, induction of young talents from IIMs and other Premier institutes and rebranding of the bank. The huge success of the program is evident from UBIs superior credit also in significant improvement in employee and branch productivity. Bank has made significant progress in alternate delivery channels with 35% of transactions in FY10 executed electronically and this is expected to reach 50% in FY11.
Operating Efficiency
43% 42% 41% 40% 39% 38% 37% 36% FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
Good operating efficiency UBI has been efficiently using its resources and has one of the lowest cost/income and opex/average assets ratio amongst PSU banks at 40% and 1.4%, respectively, which will aid its high RoE of 25%+ in the coming fiscals. UBI has been able to improve its operating efficiency by adopting an excellent technology platform and containing the employee cost. In addition, its renewed focus on increasing non-branch transactions could further improve its cost efficiency, driving profitability. Robust technology platform to drive growth Union Bank has made extensive investment in technology, manpower training, robust credit processing systems and branch makeovers, which enables it to grow faster than the industry. The Bank has been a front runner among public sector banks in modern-day banking trends. The Bank has implemented Loan Automation Solution for its Retail, MSME and Corporate Asset portfolios. It is designed with the aim of straight through processing of all credit proposals with capabilities to interact / interface with existing data. 4
Cost/Income
Opex/Avg assets
Over the years Union Bank has made extensive investment in technology.
Loan Automation Solution for Retail, MSME and Corporate Asset portfolios.
This will lead to paperless credit proposals for processing, sanctioning and simultaneously taking care of areas like credit ratings, monitoring, NPA Management and MIS in an integrated manner. The solution is expected to further reduce the Turn-around-Time in sanctioning of credit facilities and support key requirements like monitoring and reporting, thereby fastening the growth process. Furthermore, Bank plans to introduce a new state of art Mobile PoS Device, which will enable the students (youth) to use the banking services on self service mode. This will be the first initiative of its kind by any bank in India. Modest branch expansion plans to boost CASA levels UBI continues to invest in expansion of its branch network to enhance its deposit franchise and create an integrated distribution network for both asset and liability products. The bank has a network of over 2,910 branches and about 2,327 ATMs in India and has pan India presence. The bank has already added 60 new branches in FY11 to its network. Furthermore, the management expects to add around 500 branches each in FY11 and FY12, thereby further expanding the domestic branch network. Thus by expanding its branch network the bank would be able to scale up its low cost CASA deposit base to the expected 35% levels by FY12E. Besides, the bank is also focusing on rural business and has identified 1000 branches with great potential in the rural segment. Capital Adequacy: So far reasonable The Banks capital adequacy ratio as per RBIs guidelines on Basel II norms stood at 12.51% for FY10, above RBIs requirement of total capital adequacy of 9.0%. The bank reported Tier-1 capital adequacy ratio of ~7.9%. The bank is aiming at 25% loan growth in FY11E and 20% balance sheet growth, which would require Tier I capital to support it. However UBI being a PSU bank it would get strong parental support in form of fresh capital infusion in the event of distress to facilitate their growth. Recently the government infused capital of `1.1b as PNCPS (Perpetual Non- Cumulative Preference Shares) tier-I capital.
200910
ATMs
201011E
Capital Adequacy
5.01 5.06 5.08 4.6 4 3.5
7.79
7.45
8.19
7.91
7.9
7.6
12.8
12.51
13.27
12.51
11.9
11.1
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
CAR (%)
Tier-I (%)
Tier-II (%)
Loan Mix
Retail, 11.30% Others, 20.20%
Agri, 15.50%
MSME, 19.00%
Corporate and agriculture loans to drive growth Most of Union Banks credit growth has been driven by SME and Agriculture loans. SME loans grew 40.5% YoY, while Agriculture loans grew 33.7% YoY. Due to faster growth in advances relative to deposits, the banks credit-deposit improved from 69.6% to 70.2% in FY10. We expect the banks business to grow at faster pace, given likely improvement in the credit cycle in FY11 as compared to FY10. We assume a 22% CAGR in credit growth over the next two years. Thus with 50%+ of its lending to large corporate and SME segment, UBI will be a key beneficiary of rising corporate credit demand. NIMs expand on the back of lower cost of deposits Net Interest Margin for the bank improved significantly mainly due to lower cost of deposits, coupled with increased share of high yielding advances. NIMs (reported) improved by 70 bps YoY on the back of fall in cost of funds. This improvement was primarily on account of substantial reduction in high cost term deposits which declined by 45 bps and higher CASA growth. Going forward we expect the NIM to stabilize around 3% by end of FY11. Asset quality to improve by FY12 For FY10, UBI reported substantial slippages from the restructured assets portfolio, thereby increasing GNPA% to 2.2%. Though additional slippages could happen in H1 FY11, Gross NPA formation for the coming fiscal is expected to be lower than FY10. Going forward we expect the Asset quality to improve and the GNPA to decline to 2%, mainly driven by improvement in economic environment and robust loan growth.
Corporate , 34.00%
2.94%
2.73%
2.52%
Investment Concerns
Slower than expected credit off take UBIs credit growth target for FY11E stands at 25%, which may get upset with lower than expected economic growth, with inching inflationary pressures in current fiscal. Capital constraints For FY10, UBI reported Capital Adequacy Ratio at 12.5% and UBI has targeted above industry growth rate of 25% in the coming years. In that case, UBI has to shore up its Tier I capital in order to achieve its targets. Any delay on part of the government in recapitalizing the bank will hamper the growth plans of the bank. Asset quality The bank has restructured assets of ~ `50bn (about 4% of the loan book), of which about `5.7bn has slipped into NPA during the year. The gross NPA ratio stood at 2.2% as compared to 1.96% for FY09 and the Net NPA ratio at 0.8% as compared to 0.34% for FY09. As such the provision coverage (calc) has dipped to about 64% from 84% last year. Though UBI has one of the best asset quality in the industry, unexpected slowdown in the economy can further affect the asset quality thereby hampering profits.
FY12E
2.00% 1.50%
Asset Quality
3%
2%
1%
Valuation:
With economic environment improving and given the bank's 3.5%+ market share, we believe, Union Bank is well poised to capture the uptick in credit growth. UBI has superior return ratios and high operating efficiency as compared to its PSU peers. We expect Union Bank to post EPS of `41 in FY11 and `60 in FY12. We expect FY11 BV to be `212.9 and FY12 BV to be `259.2. Furthermore, we expect the bank to sustain RoA at over ~1.2% and RoE at 25%+ till FY12E. Union Bank trades at 1.3x FY12E BV and 5.7x FY12E EPS. We assign a P/Adj. BV of 1.7x to arrive at a price target of `410 giving it an upside potential of 20% from current levels. We initiate coverage on the bank with a 'BUY' rating.
Indian economy set to grow at 8.59% for FY11 ....we believe that growth opportunities for Indian banks are immense..
Union bank outperforming the Sensex and Bankex in the recent scenario
Index Comparison
Source: BSE
Source: BSE
With addition of 500 branches each in FY11 and FY12; CASA target to reach 35% by end - FY12
CASA and Total Deposits (Crs)
200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 34.5 31.7 34.9 30.1 40 30 20 10 0 FY07
CASA
33.0
34.0
Rs in Crs
FY08
FY09
Total
FY10
FY11E
CASA(%)
FY12E
UBI has a rising trend of earnings per share on y-o-y basis, which depicts a healthy future growth
EPS
Metro, 21.42%
Urban , 23.42%
59.8
Rural, 28.66%
Semiurban, 26.45%
FY08
Source: IGSL Research Source: IGSL Research
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
10
` Crs
FY08
9,214.6 6,361.0 2,853.7 1319.7 4,173.3 845.3 747.7 1,593.0 2,580.3 728.9 1,851.4 464.4 1,387.0
FY09
11,889.4 8,075.8 3,813.6 1482.6 5,296.1 1,151.8 1,062.2 2,214.1 3,082.0 737.5 2,344.5 618 1,726.5
FY10
13,302.7 9,110.3 4,192.4 1974.8 6,167.1 1,354.5 1,153.4 2,507.9 3,659.3 826.4 2,832.9 758 2,074.9
FY11E
17,056.7 11,254.3 5,802.3 1997.7 7,800.0 1,693.1 1,395.6 3,088.7 4,711.3 1,184.7 3,526.7 977.8 2,548.8
FY12E
21,074.9 13,982.8 7,092.1 2128.6 9,220.7 1,947.1 1,535.1 3,482.2 5,738.5 1,444.2 4,294.3 1,271.2 3,023.1
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` Crs FY08 505.12 6842.6 5118.2 7347.7 5623.3 103858.7 4,760.5 8106.4 124073.3 10097.8 33,822.6 74348.3 5804.5 124073.3 FY09 505.12 8235.2 6549.3 8740.4 7054.4 138702.8 8,774.9 4757.4 160975.5 15984.9 42,996.9 96534.2 5459.4 160975.5 FY10 505.12 9918.7 8302.7 10423.8 8807.8 170039.7 9,215.3 5483.0 195161.9 15776.7 54,403.5 119315.3 5666.3 195161.9 FY11E 616.12 11988.6 10138.6 12604.7 10754.7 207,448.5 10140.0 6305.0 236498.2 20148.7 64,740.2 145,564.7 6044.6 236498.2 FY12E 616.12 14474.3 12474.3 15090.5 13090.5 252,049.9 11690.0 7250.7 286081.1 23035.6 78,983.1 177,588.9 6473.5 286081.1
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FY08 111.3 3.1 99.4 27.5 12.5 2.9 FY08 26.8 1.2 31.6 69.0 38.2 6.3 75.5 FY08 71.6 32.6 2.2 35 0.2 92 FY08 7.0 4.7 11.7 FY08 6 24 19 6 18
FY09 139.7 2.4 137.1 34.2 10.0 3.1 FY09 27.2 1.2 28.0 67.9 41.8 7.5 92.0 FY09 69.6 31.0 1.9 30 0.3 83 FY09 8.2 5.1 13.3 FY09 27 29.5 26 19 51
FY10 174.4 2.0 167.9 41.1 8.3 2.7 FY10 26.2 1.2 32.0 68.5 40.7 9.4 103.2 FY10 70.2 32.0 2.3 32 0.8 64 FY10 7.9 4.6 12.5 FY10 21 21 19 13 26
FY11E 212.9 1.6 193.8 50.5 6.8 3.0 FY11E 26.1 1.2 25.6 66.0 39.6 10.8 106.8 FY11E 70.2 31.2 2.2 33 0.7 68 FY11E 7.9 3.9 11.9 FY11E 19 21 21 13 14
FY12E 259.2 1.3 238.7 59.8 5.7 3.1 FY12E 25.4 1.2 23.1 66.3 37.8 12.1 112.9 FY12E 70.5 31.3 2.1 34 0.7 68.5 FY12E 7.6 3.4 11.1 FY12E 20 22 22 15 18 13
Peer Comparison
Union Bank (I) Profit and Loss Interest Earned Interest Expended PAT Balance Sheet Capital Reserves Total Deposits Borrowings Investments Advances Fixed Assets Total Assets Financial Ratios Credit-Deposit (%) Investment / Deposit (%) RONW (%) Total CAR (%) % of NNPA Return on Assets (%) Business Per Emp (` Cr) Tier I Capital (%) EPS (annualized) Book Value
Source: IGSL Research
Bank of Baroda
16698.3 10758.8 3058.3 365.5 14740.8 241044.2 13350.0 61182.3 175035.3 2284.7 278316.7 73.4 26.2 21.8 14.3 0.3 1.2 9.8 8.2 81.1 413.2
Bank of India
17877.9 12122.0 1741.0 525.9 13704.0 229761.9 22399.9 67080.1 168490.7 2351.8 274966.4 74.2 28.5 14.1 12.9 1.3 0.7 10.1 8.2 31.9 243.4
Canara Bank
18751.9 13071.4 3021.4 410.0 14261.7 234651.4 8440.5 69676.9 169334.6 2859.3 265051.6 72.9 30.2 26.7 14.1 1.1 1.3 9.8 8.5 71.9 305.8
Syndicate Bank
10047.1 7307.3 813.3 521.9 5105.0 117025.7 12172.6 33010.9 90406.3 701.4 139050.9 73.8 27.3 16.5 12.6 1.1 0.6 7.4 8.2 15.1 100.1
Allahabad Bank
8369.2 5718.7 1206.3 446.7 6306.2 106055.7 5435.4 38428.6 71604.8 1118.2 121704.1 68.2 35.6 22.2 13.1 0.6 1.1 8.4 8.1 26.1 131.7
13302.6 9110.2 2074.9 505.1 9918.6 170039.7 9215.3 54403.5 119315.3 2305.4 195161.9 70.2 32 26.2 12.5 0.8 1.2 8.5 7.9 41.1 174.4
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For Any Queries please feel free to contact our Institutional Team
Names Nagji Rita Sales Ravinder Kasliwal Dealing Shiv Damani Vinit Rita Rashda Ainapore Research Denil Savla Sheetal Nirmal Pankti Shah Divya Kant Anshuman Jain Sanjeev Haria Sibayan Banerjee Ashok Patel Madhu Patel Designation CMD Head Institutional Sales Institutional Dealer Institutional Dealer Institutional Dealer Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst E-Mail Id. ravinder.kasliwal@inveturegrowth.com shiv.damani@inventuregrowth.com vinit.rita@inventuregrowth.com rashda.ainapore@inventuregrowth.com denil.savla@inventuregrowth.com sheetal.nirmal@inventuregorwth.com pankti.shah@inventuregrowth.com divya.kant@inventuregrowth.com anshuman.jain@inventuregrowth.com sanjeev.haria@inventuregrowth.com sibayan.banerjee@inventuregrowth.com ashok.patel@inventuregrowth.com madhu.patel@inventuregrowth.com
Contact 40751565/66 22723797 40751565/66 40751565/66 40751515 * 581 40751515 40751515 40751515 * 582 40751515 * 579 40751515 22723797 22723797 22723797
Disclaimer
Inventure Growth & Securities Ltd has prepared this Document. The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Inventures assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Neither Inventure Growth & Securities Ltd nor any of its employees or associates accepts any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of information herein and shall not be responsible for its completeness and accuracy. It is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This document is for circulation only
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