POLLUTION CONTROL DEPARTMENT (PCD)

GUIDELINES FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT (QRA) STUDY

(For Installations Which Store, Transport Or Use Hazardous Substances)
Rev: Apr 2010

INTRODUCTION
Under Section 26 of the Environmental Protection and Management Act, PCD may require
the owner/occupier of hazardous installations to conduct pollution/hazard/risk impact studies.
The purposes of the QRA are to:
i
ii
iii
iv

identify and quantify hazards and risks related to the transport, use and storage
of hazardous materials;
determine hazards/risks due to possible accident scenarios which will lead to
fire, explosion or toxic release;
recommend measures to be incorporated in the design and operation of the
plant to keep hazards/risks to as low a level as practical;
facilitate the development of emergency response plans to deal with all
possible accident scenarios.

QRA REPORT REQUIREMENTS

Introduction
i
ii
iii

Describe the approved/proposed industrial activity of the facility.

Include a description of the hazards of the hazardous substances that will be
used, stored or transported to/from the facility.
Provide a labeled site map of the facility and transportation route

Hazard Identification
i
ii
iii

Tabulate the inventory of hazardous materials to be handled/stored on-site.

(see Annex 1). Include MSDSs in the report.
Identify all possible accident scenarios; especially those credible scenarios
with off-site impacts.
Highlight any hazardous materials that will be transported by road in bulk (i.e.
ISO-container)

Consequence Analysis
i

For the facility, determine the hazard zones for possible accident scenarios
considering proposed safety systems / mitigation measures, using well
validated models

ii

iii
iv
v

For the road transport of hazardous materials in bulk, determine the worst case
(rupture) 3% fatality distance for both daytime and nighttime weather
conditions
State clearly in the report which models are used and the basis for their
selection.
Key assumptions made in the calculations shall be tabulated (see Annex 2)
Estimate the distance to each of the following criteria. Tabulate the results (see
Annex 2) and indicate the hazard zones of the worst credible scenario (WCS)
on a map of the site:

Hazard
Toxic
(see Notes 2)
Fire (Radiation)

Explosion (Overpressure)

Criteria

IDLH;

3% fatality (for a release duration of less that 30
minutes)

37.5kw/m2 and 4kw/m2;

3% fatality / 500 TDU (for a fire of less than 30
seconds) (see Notes 1)

5psi, 1psi and 0.5psi

Fireball zone

e) Use the following meteorological conditions for the consequence analysis:

Wind Speed (m/s)
1
2
3

Atmospheric Stability
F
B
C

Frequency Analysis
i
ii
iii

Estimate the event frequency per year for credible accident scenarios based on
relevant historical failure frequencies. Tabulate the results (see Annex 2)
Provide references for the failure data and indicate the applicability of the
historical failure data to the actual items being considered. (see Notes 3)
The failure frequency/probability of proposed safety systems / mitigation
measures shall be tabulated. (see Annex 2)

Individual Fatality Risk

i
ii
iii

Name the software package used for the risk summation and give a simple
description of the basic approach the software uses for the calculation.
Identify the key risk contributors
Establish the following Individual Risk (IR) contours, tabulate the results (see
Annex 2) and indicate the IR contours on a map of the site:
(a) 5x10-5 per year;
-6
(b) 5x10 per year; and
(c) 1x10-6 per year

QRA REPORT CONCLUSION / CONFIRMATION

i

That the following hazard zones / IR contour for credible scenarios are within
the plant site boundary:
a
b
c

ii

IR contours:
a
b

iii

that the 5x10-6 IR contour extends into industrial developments only

that the 1x10-6 IR contour extends into commercial and industrial
developments only.

Hazard zones (IDLH, 3% fatality, 4kW/m2, 500TDU, 0.5psi, fireball zone):

a
b

iv

37.5 kW/m2 heat radiation hazard zone

5 psi explosion overpressure hazard zone
5x10-5 per year IR contour

that the hazard zones for the worst credible scenario (WCS) does not
extend into residential areas
no high-rise developments within the fireball zone

Summarise the key findings of the study in the format at Annex 3.

QRA SUBMISSION
A copy of the QRA report shall be submitted to each of the following agencies for their
information and comments:

National Environment Agency (NEA)

Central Building Plan Unit
Pollution Control Dept
40 Scotts Road #13-00, S(228231)
Attn: Mr Chow Chee Kiong
Tel: 67319919
Fax: 67319725

National Environment Agency (NEA)

Pollution Control Dept
Chemical Control Section
40 Scotts Road #12-00, S(228231)
Attn: Mr Ho Siew Thong
Tel: 67319642
Fax: 67319651

Singapore Civil Defense Force (SCDF)

Fire Safety & Shelter Dept (FSSD)
91 Ubi Ave 4, S(408827)
Attn: MAJ Han Fook Kuang
Tel: 68481467
Fax: 68481494

Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF)

Hazmat Department
91 Ubi Ave 4, S(408827)
Attn: LTA Mavis Chng
Tel: 68483323
Fax: 68483318

Ministry of Manpower (MOM)

Occupational Safety and Health
Division (OSHD)
OSH Specialist Dept
18 Havelock Rd, #03-02, S(059764)
Attn: Ms Jaime Lim
Tel: 63171119, 63171118
Fax: 63171140

Singapore Police Force (SPF)

Protective & Maritime Security
Security & Counter Terrorism Division,
Operations Dept
Police Headquarters
Attn: ASP Isaac Chua
Tel: 6478 4078
Fax: 6250 6306

*Jurong Town Corporation (JTC)

Land Resource Planning Dept
8 Jurong Town Hall Rd, S(609434)
Attn: Ms Lillian Lee Jiaxian
Tel: 68833129
Fax: 68855880

Remark
*For proposed development on JTCs land only.

OTHER REQUIREMENTS
i

After QRA clearance, the owner/occupier shall develop an emergency

response plan (ERP) to mitigate all accident scenarios identified in the QRA
study. The ERP shall be submitted to PCD for information and to SCDF
(HazMat Branch) for clearance.

ii

After QRA clearance, the owner/occupier may be required to conduct a

a

safety review (HAZOP) to identify all feasible and practical

safety/mitigation measures that should be incorporated into the detailed
design. The HAZOP study shall be submitted to MOM (OSD).

fire safety study to identify fire prevention/detection/protection

strategies and measures that should be incorporated into the detailed
design. The fire safety study shall be submitted to FSB.

pollution impact study to (1) identify the sources of emission of air

pollutants, discharge of trade effluent, generation of wastes and
emission of noise and (2) to propose measures to reduce pollution and
to mitigate adverse pollution impact on surrounding land use. The
pollution impact study shall be submitted to PCD.

CONSULTANTS
i

A list of consultants with expertise in conducting QRAs is provided in

Annex 4

Notes
1

TDU denotes Thermal Dose Units;

where TDU = exposure time (s) x heat load (kW/m2)4/3 .
Use probit functions derived by TNO (1989) or equivalent.

For the purpose of emergency response planing, the consequence distances to TLV
and ERPG-2 shall also be determined under section 2.3 for all toxic gases.

Statistics and frequency estimates used shall be characteristic / representative of the

conditions in Singapore and specific to the accident scenario/s to which they are
applied.

ANNEX 1
CHEMICAL INVENTORY

Table 1:
Chemical

Table 2:
Chemical

2
3
4

Storage
Storage
Location

UN /
IMO
Hazard
Class

Major
Hazards1

Physical
Form2

Type of
Container3

Unit
Capacity
of
Container4

Max Qty
Stored
On-Site4

Transportation
From

To

Type of
Container3

Unit
Capacity
of
Container4

Max Qty
Transported
per trip4

No. of Unit
Containers
Transported
per trip

No. of
Trips per
year

Toxic by inhalation / Highly flammable / Pyrophoric / Explosive / Emits toxic

fumes in a fire or in contact with water / Low SADT...etc
Solid / Liquid / Gas
Drum/Cylinder/ISO Container...etc
Convert all units to kilograms (kg) or metric tons (MT)

ANNEX 2
TABULATION OF CONSEQUENCE, FREQUENCY & RISK RESULTS FOR ALL POSSIBLE ACCIDENT SCENARIOS

Accident
Scenario1

Release Rate
& Duration

(Description
in words)

(in the largest

applicable
unit)

Event1

Mass
Released
Toxic
Fire

(flash fire,
jetfire..etc)
Explosion
(BLEVE,
VCE..etc)

Consequence Distance2
1F
2B
3C

IDLH
3% Fatality
37.5 kW/m2
4 kW/m2
3% fatality
5psi
1psi
0.5psi
3% fatality

Event
Frequency

Key Assumptions
Safety/Mitigation
Measures3

all outcomes/events for each accident scenario for both storage and transport.
credible scenarios with off-site impacts shall be in bold font. The worst credible scenario shall be identified with the text "(WCS)"
3
including failure frequency/probability of proposed safety/mitigation measures and frequency/probability of human error
2

Individual Fatality Risk (IR)

Contours
5x10-5 per year

Maximum Distance to IR
Contour

Confirmation
That this contour remains on-site

5x10-6 per year

That this contour extends into industrial developments only

1x10-6 per year

That this contour extends into commercial and industrial developments only.

ANNEX 3
SALIENT FINDINGS OF THE QRA STUDY
1

STORAGE OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

Worst Case Scenario1

Event Frequency
(per year)

Offsite Hazard
Distance 3
(m)

xE-y

x
(37.5kW/m2)

Remarks / Land Use

FIRE
Description

na

y
(4kW/m2)
TOXIC RELEASE
Description

xE-y

x
(IDLH)

xE-y

x
(5psi)

na

EXPLOSION
Description

na

y
(1psi)
z
(0.5psi)
Worst Credible Scenario2

Event Frequency
(per year)

Offsite Hazard
Distance 3
(m)

Remarks / Land Use Constraints

37.5 kW hazard zone confined onsite

FIRE
Non-credible

No credible scenarios

TOXIC RELEASE
xE-y

Description

x
(3% fatality)

4kW hazard zone confined to industrial

areas does not encroach into
residential areas or workers' dormitories

Hazard zone confined to industrial areas

does not encroach into residential
areas or workers' dormitories

5psi hazard zone confined onsite

EXPLOSION
xE-y

Description

x
(5psi)
y
(1psi)

1 psi and 0.5psi hazard zone confined to

industrial areas does not encroach into
residential areas or workers' dormitories

z
(0.5psi)

Individual Risk
Individual risk contours

5E-5 IR is confined on-site

5E-6 IR extends off-site by x m only industrial developments are within this IR
1E-6 IR extends off-site by y m only industrial, commercial and park
developments are between this IR and 5E-6 IR.
1 scenario with largest offsite hazard distance (independent of frequeny) e.g. rupture
2 scenario with frequency greater than 1E-6 per year and the largest offsite hazard distance
3 measured from the plant's fence line and using the most prevalent night-time weather condition

TRANSPORT OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

Worst Case Scenario

(for Transport in ISO-container / tubetrailer only)
FIRE
Description

Event Frequency
(per year)

Hazard Distance2
(m)

Remarks / Land Use

Does not encroach into residential areas

or existing workers' dormitories
xE-y

x
(3% fatality)
y
(4kW/m2)
Does not encroach into residential areas
or existing workers' dormitories

TOXIC RELEASE
Description

xE-y

x
(3% fatality)
Does not encroach into residential areas
or existing workers' dormitories

EXPLOSION
Description

Worst Credible Scenario1

xE-y

x
(3% fatality)

Event Frequency
(per year)

Hazard Distance3
(m)

37.5 kW hazard zone does not encroach

into industrial buildings / facilities

FIRE
Description

Remarks / Land Use Constraints

xE-y

x
(3% fatality)
y
(37.5kW/m2)

4kW hazard zone confined to industrial

areas does not encroach into
residential areas or workers' dormitories

z
(4kW/m2)
TOXIC RELEASE
Description

xE-y

x
(3% fatality)

5psi hazard zone does not encroach into

industrial buildings / facilities

EXPLOSION
Description

Hazard zone confined to industrial areas

does not encroach into residential
areas or workers' dormitories

xE-y

x
(3% fatality)
y
(1 psi)

1 psi and 0.5psi hazard zone confined to

industrial areas does not encroach into
residential areas or workers' dormitories

z
(0.5 psi)

1 scenario with frequency greater than 1E-6 per year and the largest hazard distance
2 measured from the edge of the road using most prevalent daytime and nighttime weather condition
3 using most prevalent daytime conditions (i.e. 2B or 3C)

ANNEX 4
LIST OF QRA CONSULTANTS

The updated list of QRA consultants can be found at our NEA website
http://www.nea.gov.sg/cms/pcd/qra_consultants.pdf

APPENDIX
SCHEMATIC OF QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS