Cogsci 131 The Problem of Induction: Tom Griffiths
Cogsci 131 The Problem of Induction: Tom Griffiths
string = computation;
disp(string);
thought
Computational problems
Problems of deduction and search:
arithmetic, algebra, chess
Computational problems
Problems of deduction and search:
arithmetic, algebra, chess
Outline
Inductive problems
Break
The problem of induction
Inductive problems
Evaluating a set of hypotheses whose truth
is underdetermined by the available data
Examples:
learning and using language
sophisticated senses: vision, hearing
similarity and categorization
inferring causal relationships
scientific investigation
Learning language
Red: Target language
Learning language
Gavagai!
Vision
Vision
Vision
Vision
Categorization
Categorization
cat small furry domestic carnivore
Scientific discovery
Halley, 1752
75 years
76 years
Inductive problems
inductive problems
PQ
P
Q
PQ
PQ
PQ
PQ
PQ
Q
P
deduction
induction
abduction
Causal induction
PQ
PQ
PQ
PQ
PushSwitch Light
PushSwitch Light
PushSwitch Light
PushSwitch Light
Causal reasoning
PQ
Q
P
PushSwitch Light
Light
PushSwitch
Inductive problems
PQ
P
Q
PQ
PQ
PQ
PQ
deduction
induction
PQ
Q
P
abduction
Break
Up next:
The problem of induction
Three problems
Platos problem
how do we know so much?
why are our inductions so successful?
Humes problem
induction can only be justified by induction
Three problems
Platos problem
how do we know so much?
why are our inductions so successful?
Humes problem
induction can only be justified by induction
Humes problem
Inductive inferences assume that the
future will be like the past
What is the basis for this assumption?
It is impossible that any arguments from experience
can prove this resemblance from past to future; since all
these arguments are founded on the supposition of that
resemblance.
00
00
01
Data: 01
10
10
11
11
0
1
0
Correct answer: 1
0
1
0
1
00
00
01
Data: 01
10
10
11
11
0
1
0
Correct answer: 1
0
1
0
1
Anthropic argument
Goodmans response
Induction is no less justified than deduction
the formal system underlying deduction was
refined to confirm to our intuitions
the same process can yield rules for induction
September17 Light
September17 Light
September17 Light
September17 Light
Grue
Grue = Green before t, blue after t
Observe three green emeralds before t
Syntactic complexity
Grue = Green before t, blue after t
This is a complicated property - perhaps
induction only works with simple properties?
Goodmans conclusion
lawlike or projectible hypotheses cannot be
distinguished on any merely syntactical grounds
string = computation;
disp(string);
thought
Next week
Typicality and categorization
fuzzy borders and uncertainty