HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

08 November, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCY VIEW POINT
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. Rupee Marginally Lower on Stronger Dollar
Close
USDINR 66.738 66.708 0.030 0.04% The rupee yesterday closed marginally lower against the US dollar,
tracking the losses in its Asian peers. The local currency was under
DXY INDX 97.801 97.602 0.199 0.20%
pressure on back of foreign fund outflow in last couple of days
EURUSD 1.104 1.1061 -0.002 -0.22% ahead of U.S. Election.
GBPUSD 1.240 1.2419 -0.002 -0.19% The rupee closed at 66.74 a dollar, down 0.04% from its previous
USDJPY 104.300 104.39 -0.090 -0.09% close of 66.75. The home currency opened at 66.75 against the US
DG USDINR 66.921 66.91201 0.009 0.01% dollar. So far this year, it has fallen 0.9%.
The benchmark 10-year government bond yield closed at 6.835%
GLOBAL INDICES
compared with Fridays close of 6.841%.
Technically, Spot USDINR is resisting at 67.08 while holding support
Prev. of 66.50.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close U.S. Election to Sway Global Market
SGX NIFTY 8538.5 8509.5 29 0.34% The dollar steadied earlier today, keeping gains made in the
NIFTY 8497.1 8433.8 63 0.75% previous session on the growing prospect of a victory for U.S.
SENSEX 27459.0 27274.2 185 0.68% Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton after the FBI
HANG-SENG 22857.5 22801.4 56 0.25% cleared her of any possibility of criminal charges in its latest probe.
NIKKEI 17150.8 17177.2 -26 -0.15% The dollar index stood at 97.771, well above Friday's low of 96.894,
SHANGHAI 3140.2 3133.3 7 0.22% its lowest since Oct. 10.
S&P INDEX 2131.5 2085.2 46 2.22% Latest ABC/Washington Post tracking poll has Clinton leading 47%
to Trumps 43%.
DOW JONES 18259.6 17888.3 371 2.08%
NASDAQ 5166.2 5046.4 120 2.37% As Americans go to the polls today, USD/JPY climbed 1.3% on Nov.
7 to close at 104.46 after the FBIs decision on Clintons handling of
FTSE 6806.9 6693.3 114 1.70%
e-mails boosted expectations she will win the election. Markets
CAC 4461.2 4377.5 84 1.91% appear to price in 90% chance of a Clinton win, so a Trump victory
DAX 10457.0 10259.1 198 1.93% would have a huge market impact that could exceed that of Brexit.
In case Trump wins the USD/JPY will break below 99. USD/JPY
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr)
tested near the upper end of the range but lacked sufficient
momentum to challenge the level. Short-term technical indicators
Segment 07-Nov-16 04-Nov-16 that favoured the downside largely ignored as perception of election
outcome dictated flows. Resistance is around between 104.60/65,
Equity 492.58 73.03 bids provide support at 103.80.
Debt 482.73 176.70 The near-term outlook for the forex market will be driven by the
outcome of the US presidential election and traders are likely to
maintain caution ahead of the election results which would be clear
by tomorrow.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDINR NOV. FUTURE HOURLY CHART

Technical Observations
The USDINR Nov. Future placed well below short term moving average of 20 SDMA.
It is getting resistance around 67.15, the falling trend line adjoining recent tops.
MACD has been placed near zero line with MACD moving above MACD average suggesting consolidation.
The bias remains bearish until the pair surpass the falling trend line resistance placed at 67.08. However, the downside also limited to
66.50 in near term.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View

USDINR 66.94 66.92 66.78 66.82 66.88 66.98 67.03 67.09 Consolidation
EURINR 74.10 74.11 73.73 73.86 73.98 74.23 74.36 74.48 Sell on Rally
GBPINR 83.19 83.37 81.73 82.34 82.76 83.79 84.40 84.82 Consolidation
JPYINR 64.12 64.15 63.66 63.83 63.98 64.30 64.47 64.62 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low

USDINR 66.87 66.67 66.96 66.40 68.79 65.90 66.73 66.77 66.79 66.97 67.09
EURINR 74.23 73.08 75.15 72.66 77.49 70.24 73.85 73.53 74.38 74.64 74.83
GBPINR 83.38 81.16 87.18 80.89 101.87 80.89 82.56 81.86 84.98 87.03 91.67
JPYINR 65.05 63.46 66.25 63.42 68.11 53.32 64.33 64.17 64.89 65.15 62.89

CURRENCY MOVEMENT

Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 66.75 66.76 66.68 66.74 0.03 -- -- -- --
USDINR NOV. FUT. 66.96 66.97 66.87 66.94 0.01 1646873 13155 458200 -36768
SPOT EURINR 73.93 73.96 73.73 73.84 -0.22 -- -- -- --
EURINR NOV. FUT. 74.24 74.24 73.99 74.10 -0.21 43911 -1405 28319 3304
SPOT GBPINR 83.13 83.18 82.67 82.92 -0.40 -- -- -- --
GBPINR NOV. FUT. 83.44 83.97 82.94 83.19 -0.43 49159 -2558 57324 1728
SPOT JPYINR 64.03 64.07 63.79 63.92 -0.91 -- -- -- --
JPYINR NOV. FUT. 64.31 64.33 64.01 64.12 -0.92 28116 -4758 44635 10235

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/07/2016 14:00 UK Halifax House Prices MoM Oct 0.20% 1.40% 0.30%
11/07/2016 14:39 CH Foreign Reserves Oct $3132.5b $3120.7b $3166.4b
11/07/2016 14:40 EC Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Oct -- 48.6 49.6
11/07/2016 15:00 EC Sentix Investor Confidence Nov 8.6 13.1 8.5
11/07/2016 15:30 EC Retail Sales YoY Sep 1.20% 1.10% 1.20%

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
11/08/2016 10:30 JN Coincident Index Sep P 112.1 112
11/08/2016 15:00 UK Industrial Production YoY Sep 0.80% 0.70%
11/08/2016 15:00 UK Manufacturing Production YoY Sep -0.10% 0.50%
11/08/2016 20:30 UK NIESR GDP Estimate Oct -- 0.40%
11/08/2016 CH Trade Balance Oct $51.70b $41.99b

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]