HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

02 December, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCY
VIEW POINT
Prev. Rupee Strikes One Week High on Weaker Dollar
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close Indian rupee swiftly reclaimed its one-week high to end at 68.34 against
USDINR 68.346 68.389 -0.042 -0.06% the resurgent dollar following weakness in American dollar. However,
DXY INDX 100.830 101.17 -0.340 -0.34% foreign fund outflow on year end, rising commodity price and weaker
EURUSD 1.067 1.063 0.004 0.40% manufacturing activity would drag rupee lower in coming day.
GBPUSD 1.260 1.264 -0.004 -0.31% The rupee resumed substantially lower at 68.48 and weakened further
USDJPY 113.890 114.27 -0.380 -0.33% to hit an intraday low of 68.51 on fresh demand for the American
currency from banks and importers. However, it staged a strong come
DG USDINR 68.456 68.512 -0.056 -0.08%
back in mid afternoon deals to touch a high of 68.31 before ending at
GLOBAL INDICES 68.34, showing a modest gain of 4 paise, or 0.06%. The home currency
has appreciated by a solid 42 paise in last three trading sessions.

Prev. India Manufacturing PMI Slips From 22-Month High

Close Chg. % Chg.
Close A private gauge signals that Indias clampdown on cash will slow
SGX NIFTY 8158.0 8213.0 -55 -0.67% manufacturing activity, the first economic indicator since Prime Minister
NIFTY 8192.9 8224.5 -32 -0.38% Narendra Modis shock move last month. The Nikkei India Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers Index was at 52.3 in November, a report showed
SENSEX 26559.9 26652.8 -93 -0.35%
yesterday. While still indicating growth, the reading is weaker than the
HANG-SENG 22650.2 22878.2 -228 -1.00% previous months 54.4, which was the highest since December 2014.
NIKKEI 18425.5 18513.1 -88 -0.47% The November manufacturing PMI data showed:
SHANGHAI 3263.8 3273.3 -9 -0.29% o Output rose, but at a slower pace than Octobers near four-year high,
S&P INDEX 2191.1 2198.8 -8 -0.35% and consumer goods registered weakest growth
DOW JONES 19191.9 19123.6 68 0.36% o New orders rose but at the slowest rate since July
o Foreign demand increased at the weakest pace since June
NASDAQ 5251.1 5323.7 -73 -1.36%
o Inventories fell at the fastest pace since August
FTSE 6752.9 6783.8 -31 -0.45% o The employment outlook was little changed, with the index only
CAC 4560.6 4578.3 -18 -0.39% slightly above the crucial 50 threshold that indicates growth
DAX 10534.1 10640.3 -106 -1.00%
Dollar weakens ahead of US Non-farm payroll and Italian
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr) referendum
Yen and Malaysias ringgit lead gains, while South Koreas won weakens
as position adjustment prevails before U.S. nonfarm payroll data later
Segment 1-Dec-16 30-Nov-16
today and Italian referendum over the weekend. Yen appreciates 0.2%
Equity -360.39 -652.75 to 113.87 though still heads for fourth weekly loss. The greenback
Debt 443.27 -988.00 poised to end lower against a basket of currencies this week during
which it gave up some of its recent robust gains. The dollar index little
changed at 100.93 after falling 0.6%.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 The euro rose 0.7% overnight after report suggests the European Central Bank will extend its bond purchases beyond next March and
consider sending a formal signal next week that the asset purchase program will eventually end. It last stood little changed at $1.0659 and
enroute to rise 0.8% on the week. All eyes are now on the Italian referendum schedule this weekend and whether the government would win
or lose the vote on constitutional reform.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDINR DEC. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
Spot USDINR is facing multiple top resistance around 68.85, until this level get crossed with volume, the short term selling can be
seen.
Momentum oscillators have turned neutralto-bearish in the short term; whereas the same on hourly scale are near oversold
threshold and hence can prompt buying interest.
In short term, Spot USDINR would fell to level of 68.17 while face strong resistance around 69.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 68.50 68.53 68.19 68.32 68.41 68.62 68.75 68.84 Bullish
EURINR 72.87 72.82 72.46 72.56 72.72 72.98 73.08 73.24 Bullish
GBPINR 86.53 86.27 85.01 85.34 85.94 86.86 87.19 87.79 Profit Booking
JPYINR 60.08 60.23 59.27 59.64 59.86 60.45 60.82 61.04 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.86 68.02 68.86 66.34 68.86 66.07 68.53 67.76 67.14 67.06 67.12
EURINR 72.96 72.15 75.64 72.07 77.49 70.36 72.77 73.03 73.61 74.18 74.78
GBPINR 85.90 83.88 86.42 80.89 101.87 80.89 85.53 84.44 83.66 85.87 90.47
JPYINR 61.78 60.20 66.11 59.74 68.11 53.86 60.63 62.12 63.64 64.48 63.10

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.49 68.51 68.31 68.35 -0.04 -- -- -- --
USDINR DEC. FUT. 68.63 68.66 68.44 68.50 -0.07 1528014 -6783 861437 -776863
SPOT EURINR 72.60 72.71 72.44 72.67 -0.23 -- -- -- --
EURINR DEC. FUT. 72.93 72.93 72.67 72.87 -0.30 37102 606 40862 -4299
SPOT GBPINR 85.78 86.42 85.53 86.40 1.33 -- -- -- --
GBPINR DEC. FUT. 85.93 86.60 85.68 86.53 1.22 37023 12388 81191 38051
SPOT JPYINR 59.97 60.06 59.74 59.82 -0.63 -- -- -- --
JPYINR DEC. FUT. 60.60 60.60 60.01 60.08 -0.72 29065 5641 37625 3276

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
12/01/2016 10:30 IN Nikkei India PMI Mfg. Nov -- 52.3 54.4
12/01/2016 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov F -- 53.7 53.7
12/01/2016 15:00 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Nov 54.2 53.4 54.3
12/01/2016 15:30 EC Unemployment Rate Oct -- 9.80% 10.00%
12/01/2016 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 26-Nov -- 268k 251k
12/01/2016 19:00 US Continuing Claims 19-Nov -- 2081k 2043k
12/01/2016 20:15 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov F -- 54.1 53.9

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
12/02/2016 19:00 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 180k 161k
12/02/2016 19:00 US Unemployment Rate Nov 4.90% 4.90%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.

Any position in Instruments NO

Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information
obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or
correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not
intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other
jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HDFC Securities Ltd or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or
published for any purposes without prior written approval of HDFC Securities Ltd.
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in
securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HDFC Securities Ltd may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this
mail and/or its attachments.
HDFC Securities and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be
engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or
lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.
HDFC Securities Ltd, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report,
including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
HDFC Securities Ltd and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or
other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve
months.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing
or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HDFC
Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
This report has been prepared by the PCG team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may
be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, Retail) of HDFC Securities Ltd.

"HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]