HSL PCG "Currency Insight"-Weekly: 03 December, 2016
HSL PCG "Currency Insight"-Weekly: 03 December, 2016
HSL PCG "Currency Insight"-Weekly: 03 December, 2016
03 December, 2016
WEEKLY MOVEMENT MARKET WRAP UP
Rupee Notches Weekly Gain After Three Weeks Down Move
Currency The Indian rupee strengthened for the fourth consecutive sessions or first weekly
gains after three weeks losses against the dollar. The local unit closes at 68.23 a
dollar, up 0.25% from its previous close of 68.47. The mood was cautious ahead
Currency Prev. %
Last Chg. of RBIs bi-monthly policy on 07th December. Market is pricing 25 basis points cut
(Spot) Close Chg.
in the meeting. The benchmark 10-year government bond yield closed at 6.243%,
DXY Index 100.77 101.49 -0.72 -0.71% compared to previous weeks close of 6.233%.
Technically, Spot USDINR likely to corrective moves in coming weak after sharp
EURUSD 1.0664 1.0589 0.01 0.71%
rally. We believe the pair would retrace to the level of 67.78 to 67.40 with higher
GBPUSD 1.2729 1.2477 0.03 2.02% side triple top resistance of 68.86.
USDJPY 113.5100 113.2200 0.29 0.26% RBI Raises MSS Bond Ceiling To 600 Billion Rupees
USDINR 68.2250 68.4725 -0.25 -0.36% The cap on market stabilisation scheme (MSS) raised from 300 billion rupees to
600 billions amid significant increases in banking liquidity after withdrawal of high
EURINR 72.6424 72.5400 0.10 0.14% denomination notes. The move will suck out surplus liquidity, arising from the
GBPINR 86.0713 85.2782 0.79 0.93% surge in deposits with the banking system.
JPYINR 59.8900 60.6700 -0.78 -1.29% Dollar Drops As US 10Y Yield Declines, Ahead Of Italian Vote And ECB Meet
Dollar undermined in the week gone as the UST 10Y yield extended its drop from
DGCX USDINR 68.4556 68.7994 -0.34 -0.50%
Thursdays high ~2.49%, that decline coming after data showed NFP at 178k vs.
est. for a gain of 180k and the unemployment rate dropped to a nine-year low
4.6%. The dollar index, basket of six currencies, fell 0.71% to close at 100.77
RBI Reference Rate from previous weeks 101.49. The drop is mostly tied to profit-taking as upside
momentum failed, rather than a shift in sentiment. The closes below the 20-day
Prev. % moving average at 100.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
Currency Last Chg. posted. The buck has a November monthly top resistance of 102.05.
Close Chg.
Euro ends the week on strong note ahead of the Italys referendum and ECB
USDINR 68.3689 68.4626 -0.09 -0.14% meets. The EURUSD shut the shop at 1.0664 near and near the Fridays high of
EURINR 73.0385 72.3855 0.65 0.90% 1.0690. EUR defied expectations that further selling may be seen ahead of
Sundays Italian referendum that is expected to return a no vote on constitutional
GBPINR 86.2816 85.2222 1.06 1.24% reform, investors worry that if PM Renzi quits, the political stalemate may weigh
JPYINR 59.9600 60.3200 -0.36 -0.60%
on the Italian financial market.
GBP Hits 2-Month High Above 1.2700; Eyes for 100-DMA 1.2805
The Pound rises to its highest since Oct. 6 at 1.2711 in thin, erratic trading on
GOI 10 Yr. Bond Yield Friday. It up four days in a row, with latest gain on the back of hopes that Brexit
talks may take the soft approach with compromise on access to single-market.
Prev. % U.K. Supreme Court hearing on Brexit will be held next week. The GBPUSD ends
Instrument Last Chg.
Close Chg. the week with the gain of 2.02% to settle at 1.2729. In near term , the pair likely
to head towards 1.2805, the 100 days moving average while hold the support
697GS2026 6.2430 6.2330 0.01 0.16%
around 1.2674 the high of 11th November.
NSE INRUSD Future Dec16 68.3500 68.6075 -0.4% 1496158 775233 93.0% 861713 604878 42.5%
NSE EURINR Future Dec16 72.8300 72.7250 0.1% 36846 21784 69.1% 40379 12988 210.9%
NSE GBPINR Future Dec16 86.2450 85.4850 0.9% 28997 17098 69.6% 45343 15894 185.3%
NSE JPYINR Future Dec16 60.1250 60.8850 -1.2% 27049 9817 175.5% 18883 11482 64.5%
Currency
Weekly DAILY CHART
Pivot
Resistance 2 69.21
Resistance 1 68.78
Pivot 68.56
Support 1 68.13
Support 2 67.91
Resistance 2 73.92
Resistance 1 73.37
Pivot 73.02
Support 1 72.48
Support 2 72.13
Resistance 2 87.40
Resistance 1 86.82
Pivot 86.02
Support 1 85.45
Support 2 84.65
Resistance 2 62.34
Resistance 1 61.23
Pivot 60.62
Support 1 59.51
Support 2 58.90
GBPUSD USDJPY
Data Interpretation:
The highest Put base is at the 68 strike with 2.74 lakh contract while the highest Call base is at the 68.50 strike with 3.02
lakh contract. The 68.50 and 69 Call strikes saw additions of 0.72 and 1.57 lakh contracts, respectively, while the 68 and
68.50. Put strikes saw additions of 1.38 and 1.17 lakh contract, respectively.
The overall distribution saw support in the range of 67.70 to 68.00 while resistance 69 to 69.25.
Data Interpretation:
USDINR failed to hold the rally of three weeks and ended the with 0.40% lower to close at 68.35. In the week gone by,
there have been addition of 7.20 lakh contracts with near month future OI stood at 14.96 lakh from previous weeks 7.75
lakh contract. The rise in Open interest and fall in price suggesting weakness in current up trend.
USDINR December future likely to continue weakness in coming week with the down side support around 68.08 and 67.66
while faces stiff resistance around 69.05.
MAJOR COMMODITIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS
COMMODITY OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
GOLD 1171.69 1178.13 1164.92 1177.43 0.49 (0.52) (9.21) (11.15)
SILVER 16.518 16.8107 16.3278 16.7422 1.36 1.27 (9.41) (13.91)
CRUDE OIL 51.01 51.73 50.18 51.68 1.21 12.20 12.52 11.76
MAJOR INDICES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS
INDEX OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
Nifty 50 8153.6 8159.3 8070.1 8086.8 (1.30) (0.34) (4.11) (8.21)
S&P BSE SENSEX INDEX 26437.4 26463.1 26182.9 26230.7 (1.24) (0.33) (3.83) (8.07)
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 19161.3 19196.1 19141.2 19170.4 (0.11) 0.10 7.17 3.67
S&P 500 INDEX 2191.1 2198.0 2188.4 2192.0 0.04 (0.97) 5.12 0.55
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 5249.0 5274.5 5239.3 5255.7 0.09 (2.65) 4.15 0.11
FTSE 100 INDEX 6752.9 6752.9 6678.7 6730.7 (0.33) (1.61) 0.56 (2.16)
CAC 40 INDEX 4532.3 4545.3 4490.2 4528.8 (0.70) (0.47) 3.46 (0.27)
DAX INDEX 10436.5 10545.4 10402.6 10513.4 (0.20) (1.74) 2.48 (1.49)
NIKKEI 225 18435.6 18469.7 18315.4 18426.1 (0.47) 0.24 9.00 8.15
HANG SENG INDEX 22736.8 22756.0 22559.2 22564.8 (1.37) (0.70) (0.34) (4.59)
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE 3270.1 3279.7 3235.3 3243.8 (0.90) (0.55) 3.79 5.59
How Importers And Exporters Could Use A Forex Hedge To Minimise Losses
An important tool in the global financial markets, hedging is used in every asset class to mitigate losses. This can be
utilised by anyone, whether it is an individual or corporate, to overcome the negative impact of price volatility.
For the corporate in which the business activity is dependent on import and export of commodities, there is an automatic
exposure to foreign exchange and, hence, the need for hedging is higher. In the current context, since the world markets
are interlinked, they eventually affect and impact the movement of currencies.
Hedging, in any asset class, is ultimately a strategy to decrease or transfer risk in order to protect one's portfolio or
business from uncertainty in prices. In case of hedging in the foreign exchange market, a participant who is entering a
trade with the intention of protecting the existing position from an unexpected currency move, is said to have created a
forex hedge.
With the help of a forex hedge, a participant who is long in a foreign currency pair, can protect himself from the downside
risk. On the other hand, a hedger who is short on a foreign currency pair will protect his existing position from the upside
risk.
The strategy to create a hedge would depend on the following parameters: (a) risk component (b) risk tolerance and (c) to
plan and execute the strategy.
The impact of the movement in the USD-INR currencies affects both importers and exporters. In other words, an importer
will benefit when the rupee appreciates, while the exporter will gain when the rupee depreciates against the US dollar. The
cost of import reduces when the rupee gains strength, thus benefiting an importer, and at the same time creating a loss for
the exporter, since a stronger rupee will reduce the export remittances when converted to Indian rupees.
In order to reduce the risks associated with these uncertain movements in the financial markets, both importers and
exporters can utilize the derivatives platform of currency futures. By creating an equal and opposite position in the
derivatives market, a hedge can be created.
Suppose an oil importer wants to purchase oil worth $1,00,000 and places his order on 11 March 2016, with the delivery
date being three months away. At the time of placing the contract in the spot market, one US dollar is worth, say, Rs
66.50. However, suppose the Indian rupee depreciates to Rs 69 per dollar when the payment is due in June 2016, the
value of the payment for the importer goes up to Rs 69,00,000 rather than Rs 66,50,000.
In this case, if the importer hedges the currency risk, the losses can be reduced. Here's how the hedging strategy for the
importer would work:
Buy 100 lots of USD June 2016 contracts on 11th March 2016, assuming that June 2016 contract is trading at 67 on 11th
March 2016.
Then in June 2016, He square off 100 lots USD at 69. Profit of Rs. 200000, i.e. 1000 lot size* (69-67) *100.
Then importer makes the payment of oil purchase at 69 per dollar
Had the importer not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 2,50,000 (Rs 69,00,000 - Rs 66,50,000).
However, by creating a hedge position on the futures platform, his losses were reduced to Rs 50,000 due to profits in
currency hedge.
A Jeweller, who is exporting gold jewellery worth US$50,000 in March 2016, wants protection against a possible
appreciation in the Indian rupee in June 2016 (spot Rs 66.50), when he receives his payment. When he is required to make
the payment in June 2016, suppose the rupee appreciates to 64. If, in this situation, he wants to lock in the exchange rate
for the above transaction, his strategy would be as follows
In March 2016, Sell 50 lots of June 2016 contract USD with a lot size of 1000,spot market @66.50. Assume that initially
the Indian rupee depreciated, but later appreciated to 64 per USD as foreseen by the exporter at end of June 2016.
Had the exporter not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 75,000, i.e. (50*1000*(66.50-64)), but by
creating a hedge he has made a profit of Rs 75,000 in the futures, offsetting his business loss. Hence, exposure
management is essential, given the premise of a volatile foreign exchange market. Hedging in the currency markets,
therefore, holds prime importance.
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