Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
89 views6 pages

HSL PCG "Currency Daily": 23 November, 2016

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1/ 6

HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

23 November, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


MAJOR CURRENCY VIEW POINT
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. Rupee Would Consolidate Around 68.30
Close
USDINR 68.255 68.165 0.09 0.13%
The Indian rupee yesterday closed fresh nine month low against the
DXY INDX 101.07 100.84 0.23 0.23%
EURUSD US dollar on market volatility. This was the seven out of eight
1.0627 1.064 -0.0013 -0.12%
GBPUSD sessions when the rupee closed lower. The home currency is
1.2418 1.246 -0.0042 -0.34%
USDJPY 111.02 110.78 0.24 0.22% consolidating near Brexit day low.
DG USDINR 68.397 68.217 0.18 0.26% The rupee closed at 68.26 a dollara level last seen on 29 February,
down 0.13% from its previous close of 68.17. During the day, the
GLOBAL INDICES currency touched a low of 68.27 a dollara level last seen on 1
March. The benchmark 10-year government bond yield closed at
Prev. 6.31%, compared to Mondays close of 6.311%
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close The central suspected to have intervened heavily to curb the sharp
SGX NIFTY 8058 7990 68 0.85% slide in local currencies on a day when overseas investors sold local
NIFTY 8002.3 7929.1 73.2 0.92% securities leading to fund outflows.
SENSEX 25960.8 25765.1 195.7 0.76% Technically, USDINR pair likely to consolidate in the range of 68.30
HANG-SENG 22742 22678.1 63.9 0.28% to 67.70 before heading higher.
NIKKEI 18163 18162.9 0.1 0.00% Risk Trade Know Dollar Off 13 Year High
SHANGHAI 3256.17 3248.4 7.77 0.24% The dollar trades within sight of a 13 year peak today, bolstered
S&P INDEX 2202.94 2198.2 4.74 0.22% by strong U.S. housing data that further expectations for a Federal
DOW JONES 19024 18956.7 67.3 0.36% Reserve rate hike in December and more tightening next year.
NASDAQ 5386 5368.9 17.1 0.32% Yesterday's U.S. home re-sales data show rise of 2% in October to
FTSE 6819.7 6778 41.7 0.62% an annual rate of 5.6 million units, the highest level in more than
CAC 4548.35 4529.6 18.75 0.41% 9 years. That pushed the dollar to session highs versus the yen
DAX 10714 10685.1 28.9 0.27% and drove a turnaround in the dollar index.
The buck last stood at 100.98 that was up from Tuesday's low of
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr)
100.65 and not too far from Friday's high of 101.48 - the highest for
the dollar index since April 2003.
Segment 22-Nov-16 21-Nov-16 The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield US10 stood at 2.319% at
Equity -1241.01 -873.11 yesterday's U.S. close, down from Friday's one-year high of 2.364%.
Debt -97.63 -1787.56 Later today, the focus will turn to U.S. durable goods orders, weekly
jobless as well as the minutes of the Fed's November policy
meeting.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR NOV. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
The USDINR November future consolidates near June high of 68.25.
The pair sustained above long term moving averages and forming higher highs and lows indicating medium term bullishness. MACD
crossed MACD Average Upward near zero line indicating bullishness.
The trade below 68.00 leads to near term profit booking with downside level of 67.70.
The pair would continue trading with bullish bias with higher side resistance at 68.85 and support 67.48.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 68.26 68.21 67.97 68.03 68.15 68.32 68.39 68.50 Consolidation
EURINR 72.62 72.57 72.22 72.32 72.47 72.73 72.83 72.98 Bullish
GBPINR 85.06 85.02 84.30 84.53 84.79 85.29 85.52 85.78 Bullish
JPYINR 61.62 61.58 61.16 61.28 61.45 61.75 61.87 62.04 Consolidation

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk


Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low

USDINR 68.24 67.54 68.27 66.34 68.79 66.07 68.07 67.14 66.89 67.00 67.10
EURINR 73.21 72.07 75.64 72.07 77.49 70.29 72.60 73.15 73.93 74.36 74.81
GBPINR 84.76 83.83 85.25 80.89 101.87 80.89 84.58 83.12 83.96 86.05 90.87
JPYINR 62.80 61.40 66.11 61.29 68.11 53.86 61.82 63.23 64.32 64.81 63.09

CURRENCY MOVEMENT

Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.11 68.27 68.09 68.26 0.09 -- -- -- --
USDINR NOV. FUT. 68.15 68.28 68.10 68.26 0.10 3046178 -12711 1048864 -159081
SPOT EURINR 72.42 72.66 72.37 72.57 0.15 -- -- -- --
EURINR NOV. FUT. 72.43 72.68 72.42 72.62 0.19 25496 -64 28740 1211
SPOT GBPINR 85.12 85.25 84.76 85.04 0.88 -- -- -- --
GBPINR NOV. FUT. 85.10 85.25 84.75 85.06 0.92 25860 1345 55243 10969
SPOT JPYINR 61.48 61.66 61.37 61.60 0.04 -- -- -- --
JPYINR NOV. FUT. 61.58 61.71 61.41 61.62 0.04 21084 -1005 25663 -2037

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior


11/22/2016 15:00 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Oct 6.0b 4.3B 10.1b
11/22/2016 20:30 US Richmond Fed Mfg. Index Nov 0 4 -4
11/22/2016 20:30 EC Consumer Confidence Nov A -7.8 -6.1 -8
11/22/2016 20:30 US Existing Home Sales Oct 5.43m 5.60m 5.47m

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED


Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
11/23/2016 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov P 53.3 53.5
11/23/2016 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 18-Nov -- -9.20%
11/23/2016 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders Oct P 1.80% -0.30%
11/23/2016 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 19-Nov 250k 235k
11/23/2016 19:00 US Continuing Claims 12-Nov 2014k 1977k
11/23/2016 19:30 US House Price Purchase Index QoQ 3Q -- 1.20%
11/23/2016 20:15 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 20-Nov -- 45.4
11/23/2016 20:15 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov P 53.5 53.4
11/23/2016 20:30 US New Home Sales Oct 590k 593k
11/23/2016 20:30 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov F 91.6 91.6

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.

Any position in Instruments NO

Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information
obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or
correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not
intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other
jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HDFC Securities Ltd or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or
published for any purposes without prior written approval of HDFC Securities Ltd.
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in
securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HDFC Securities Ltd may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this
mail and/or its attachments.
HDFC Securities and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be
engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or
lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.
HDFC Securities Ltd, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report,
including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
HDFC Securities Ltd and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or
other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve
months.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing
or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HDFC
Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
This report has been prepared by the PCG team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may
be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, Retail) of HDFC Securities Ltd.

"HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

You might also like