Chapter 2:

Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Lesson 4: Probability Distributions of Discrete Random Variables
TIME FRAME: 1 hour
LEARNING OUTCOME(S): At the end of the lesson, the learner should be able to:

illustrate the probability distribution for discrete random variables, and its properties
compute probabilities corresponding to a given discrete random variable
construct the probability mass function of a discrete random variable and its
corresponding histogram
PRE-REQUISITE LESSONS: Probability, Random Variables

LESSON OUTLINE:
1. Introduction / Motivation : How Many Siblings Do Students Have
2. Main Lesson: Probability Distributions of Discrete Random Variables (including
Examples of Probability Distributions, Properties of Probability Distributions, and
Determining Probabilities)
3. Enrichment

KEY CONCEPTS:
Probability Distribution, Graphical and Tabular representation of Probability Distributions,
Probabilities from Probability Distributions

DEVELOPMENT OF THE LESSON

(A) Introduction/ Motivation: How Many Siblings Do Students Have?

Ask students to provide information on how many siblings they have. This can be done either
through the data set collected at the start of the year (see Chapter 1, Lesson 1), or by asking
them to raise their hands as you call out different numbers, 0, 1, 2, 3, etc.. Emphasize to the
students that this is an example of a random variable. Ask them what type it is (to review
Discrete Variables). Mention that typically, we denote random variables as capital letters X,
Y, Z, etc.

Construct a table of frequencies for W, the number of siblings (together with the relative
frequencies). The first column for the table lists the possible values of W, the number of
siblings (0, 1, 2, 3, etc), the second column lists the frequencies (how many students have the
corresponding siblings for the first column), and the third column lists the relative (or
percentage) frequencies, i.e. the entries on the second column divided by the number of
students expressed as a percentage.
 Suppose that we have the following table of frequencies:

W =Number of siblings Frequency Relative frequency

0 2 4% =(2/50) x 100%
1 10 20 % = (10/50) x 100%
2 28 56 %= (28/50) x 100%
3 5 10%= (5/50) x 100%
4 3 6%= (3/50) x 100%
5 1 2%= (1/50) x 100%
6
7 1 2%= (1/50) x 100%
TOTAL 50 100%= (50/50) x 100%

Next, draw a histogram to represent the relative frequencies. Emphasize that the values on
the y-axis represent these relative frequencies (in percent). You may stretch the y-axis to
make it visually better. For each rectangular region, compute the area. Take note that the
widths of the rectangles are all 1, so the area is just equal to the height of the rectangle (the
value of y), which is the probability. Have them add the areas, and show that the sum is
100% (if it not 100%, then check your answers). Ask them if that is just a coincidence or is
this to be expected ? (It should be expected because the sum of all probabilities should be 1
or 100%)
60
40
Percent

20
0

0 2 4 6 8
Number of Siblings
 Note the following properties of a histogram:
All the possible values for y (in percent) are either zero or a positive number less than
or equal to 1. (Ask students if the percentage can be equal to 1? Yes! Suppose all
students have one sibling. Then show the histogram for this scenario)
The sum of all the areas under the graph should be equal to 1 (or 100 percent).

Note that these properties are the properties of the probability of an event (as the chance of
an event can go from 0 to 100 percent, and the chance of the sure event, i.e. the whole area
under the graph is 100 percent).

(B) Main Lesson: Probability Distribution

Introduce the concept of the Probability Mass Function of Discrete Random Variables:
a table, graph, or formula that lists all the possible values of the random variable and the
corresponding probability for each value. Take note that the probabilities may be empirical
probabilities, theoretical probabilities, or subjective probabilities.

In the examples done earlier, the table and the histogram are two ways of representing the
probability mass function, also called the probability distribution. You can explain further
that it is called probability distribution because it is as though we are distributing probability
weights (or masses) among all the possible observations or values of the random variable.
This will then lead to the properties of probability distributions which will be discussed later.
In the previous example, you distributed all the weights from the students to the different
values of the random variable (number of siblings).

As a second example, you can consider the probability distribution pertaining to the number
of heads tossing a coin three times, and then counting the number of heads (the activity done
in lesson 2 of Chapter 2). Suppose there is an equal chance that the coin lands a head or a tail
(however, this assumption cannot be done always, since we are not exactly sure if we do
have a fair coin. In fact, this is what differentiates statistics from probability, where in the
latter, we make assumptions about the probability of garnering a head, while in statistics, we
conduct data collection to estimate this unknown probability). Then there will be eight
outcomes, each one assumed to have 1/8 chance of appearing. Suppose X is the number of
heads, then the Probability Distribution is as follows:

Tabular representation of the Probability Distribution of X

Outcomes Number of heads Probability
TTT 0 1/8
TTH, THT, HTT 1 3/8
THH, HTH, HHT 2 3/8
HHH 3 1/8
 Graphical representation of the Probability
Distribution of X
1/2

3/8

1/4

1/8

0
0 1 2 3

In general, when flipping a coin n times where the coin has probability p of getting a head in
1 toss, then the probability mass function for generating exactly X heads is
P(X = k) = () (1 )

This is called the binomial pmf. The formula can be understood as follows: we want exactly
k heads and n k tails. For a particular sequence of k heads, the multiplication rule says, that
this has a chance pk and similarly for a particular sequence of n-k tails, this has a chance of
(1-p)n-k . However, the k heads can occur anywhere among the n trials, and there are
() different ways of distributing k heads in a sequence of n trials.

This second case is an example where the probabilities are derived theoretically. So whether
probabilities are assigned empirically or theoretically, the probability distribution should
have the following properties.

Properties of Probability Distributions of Discrete Random Variables

Probabilities should be confined between 0 and 1, (inclusive of both ends).

The sum of all the probabilities should be 1 (i.e., 100%).
If we represent graphically the probability distribution of a discrete random variable X, with
the area of the rectangles corresponding to the probability of each value of X, we note that
each area must be non-negative valued (and at most equal to one). In addition, the area of all
the rectangles should total 1 (or 100 percent).
Inform students that for the two worked examples (on number of siblings and number of
heads obtained in three tosses of a fair coin), all these properties of probability distributions
were satisfied. It might be helpful if you do not remove the two examples from the board.
 Show in each example, that probabilities cannot be below zero, and they cannot be above
one; in addition, the probabilities sum to one. For the graphical representation, show the area
for each rectangle is the same as the probability, and then show that they all add up to 100%.
You can stop at this point and just give an assessment (either as seatwork or a short quiz). If
the time is not enough, you may give the assessment as home work.

Determining probabilities based on the Probability Distribution

Since the probability distribution contains the values of random variables and the
corresponding probabilities of each value, then it can be used to determine the probabilities
that a random variables will take on certain values.
For example, given the illustrative data on the number of siblings that students have, (or
better yet the actual distribution of the data in class) you can ask the students:

what is the probability that a randomly selected student is an only child

what is the chance that a randomly selected student has at most two siblings?

what is the probability that a randomly selected student has three or more siblings?

For the illustrative data shown above, if you want to determine the probability that the
randomly selected student is an only child, then you just get the probability that W=0, i.e.,
P(W=0) = 4 %.
For the other questions, the chance that a randomly selected student has at most two siblings
is :
P( W 2 ) = P( W = 0 or W = 1 or W = 2) = P(W=0) + P(W=1) + P(W=2)
= 4 % + 20% + 56% = 80%
while the probability that a randomly selected student has three or more siblings is
P( W 3 ) = P( W = 3 or W = 4 or W = 5 or W=7 )
= P(W=3) + P(W=4) + P(W=5) + P(W=7)
= 10% + 6% + 2% + 2 % = 20%
Alternatively, for the latter probability, we can notice that having three or more siblings is the
complement of having at most siblings (whose probability was calculated already to be 80%).
As was stated in lesson 1, the chance of the complement of an event is 100 percent minus the
chance of an event.
P( W 3 ) = 1 P( W 2 ) = 100% - 80% = 20%
 You can also use the graphical representations of the probability distribution in order to
determine the probability of the events of interest. Since the area under the graph is the same
as the probability, then adding the areas of the rectangles will give the appropriate probability
that you are looking for.
You should point out to students that in, general, for a discrete random variable X, the
probability that X lies in some discrete set A, may be obtained by summing the probability
for the distinct values in the set A, that is.

( ) = ( = )

For instance, in the last case,

P( W 3 ) == P(W=3) + P(W=4) + P(W=5) + P(W=7)

= 10% + 6% + 2% + 2 % = 20%

(C) Enrichment

(MAY BE SKIPPED)

You can go beyond the examples and do exercises like these:

Given the following table is a probability distribution for a random variable X, which
corresponds to the number of pens that children from a class have in their bags.

k Probability that X=k

1 0.15
2 0.2
3 0.35
4

Identify the value of a.

Answer: since the total probability is 1, then . + . + . + = . Therefore,

= . = .

You can also add questions like, what is the probability that a randomly selected student has
at least three pens in his/her bag. Answer: . + . = .

You can give similar examples that are based on the actual data that the students did from the
first lesson of chapter 1 (the centralized data collected in the first day of stat), for instance, let
Y = rating of how a randomly selected students feels today (on a scale of 1-10).
REFERENCES:
De Veau, R. D., Velleman, P. F., and Bock, D. E. (2006). Intro Stats. Pearson Ed. Inc.
Workbooks in Statistics 1: 11th Edition, Institute of Statistics, UP Los Banos, College Laguna
4031
http://www.amsi.org.au/ESA_Senior_Years/SeniorTopic4/4_md/SeniorTopic4c.html

http://www.amsi.org.au/ESA_Senior_Years/SeniorTopic4/4_md/SeniorTopic4c.html#content_1

http://www.amsi.org.au/ESA_Senior_Years/SeniorTopic4/4_md/SeniorTopic4c.html#content_2

http://www.amsi.org.au/ESA_Senior_Years/SeniorTopic4/4_md/SeniorTopic4c.html#content_3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSu-Rk-6apw&feature=youtu.be
 ASSESSMENT:
1. A probability distribution is an equation that:
a. associates a particular probability of occurrence with each outcome in the sample space.
b. measures outcomes and assigns values of X to the simple events.
c. assigns a value to the variability in the sample space.
d. assigns a value to the center of the sample space.

Answer: A

2. Given the results of a survey of high school students, given the following probability
distribution for Y, the number of pets they have at home.

Y Frequency Y Frequency
0 5 3 8
1 4 4 1
2 6 5 1

(a) Construct a histogram for the probability distribution

Answer:
30
20
Percent

10
0

0 2 4 6
number of pets they have at home

(b) Determine the probability of selecting a student with

3 pets.
 Less than 2 pets
At least 3 pets
At least 1 pet

Answer:

The probability of selecting a student with

3 pets is
P(Y=3) = 8/25 = 32%

At most 2 pets is
P(Y2) = P(Y=0 or Y =1 or Y =2)=P(Y=0) + P(Y=1) + P(Y=2) =
(5/25) + (4/25) + (6/25) =15/25= 60%

At least 3 pets is
P(Y3) = 1- P(Y2 )=100% -60%

At least 1 pet is
P(Y1) = 1- P(Y=0 )=1- (5/25) = 100% -20% =80%

3. Your mom decides to buy a single ticket for the lotto. Suppose that it has the following
payoffs possible with their associated probabilities.
Payoff Probability

P 100 0.0500

P1250 0.0100

P5,000 0.0050

P25,000 0.0010

P250,000 0.0005

P500,000 0.0001

(a) the probability that your mom will win any money is ________. (Ans: 0.0666)
(b) the probability that you win at least P5000 is ________. (Ans: 0.0066)

4. The following table contains the probability distribution for X = the number of
retransmissions necessary to successfully transmit a 5 GB data package through a double
satellite media.

X 0 1 2 3

P(X) 0.40 0.30 0.25 0.05

 (a) the probability of no retransmissions is ________. (Ans: 0.40)

(b) the probability of at least one retransmission is ________. (Ans: 0.60)

5. Erik is going to flip a coin twice. Each coin flip is independent, but the coin is biased:
the probability that the coin flips heads is 25 percent each time. If X is a random variable
that represents the number of heads obtained when the coin is tossed, obtain a histogram
representing the probability distribution for all possible values of X.

Solution: Generate a graph to represent the following probability distribution

P(X=0) = (0.75)2 = 0.5625
P(X=1) =2 (0.75) (0.25) = 0.375
P(X=2) = (0.25)2 = 0.0625
6. There are 8 players on an amateur basketball team. They are practicing their free throws
by having each player shoot 2 free throws. The table below shows the result of each
player's free throws. "X" represents a missed free throw, and "O" represents a made free
throw.

Player Noel Candido Robert Michael Lino Carlos Angelo Ramon

Free XX OO XX XO OX XO XO XX
throws

Obtain a histogram representing the proportion for each possible number of free throws
made by a player.

Solution: Since we have the following probability distribution

P(X=0) =3/8
P(X=1) =4/8
P(X=2) = 1/8
the histogram is shown below:
 50
40
30
Percent

20
10
0

0 1 2
number of free throws

7. A couple intends to have children until they get at least one boy and one girl, but they
agree that they will not have more than three children, even if all are girls or all are boys.
(Assume boys and girls are equally likely).

(a) Determine the probability model for the number of children they will have
(b) Calculate the probability of having two children
Solution
Enumerating possible scenarios and probabilities we get:

First child Second Child Third Child Fourth Child Probability

Boy Boy Boy Boy (1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) = 1/16

Girl (1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) = 1/16
Girl (1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) = 1/8
Girl (1/2) x (1/2) = 1/4
Girl Boy (1/2) x (1/2) = 1/4
Girl Boy (1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) = 1/8
Girl Boy (1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) = 1/16
Girl Girl (1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) = 1/16

(a) Thus the probability distribution is:

P (X = 2) =P(BG or GB)= + =
P (X= 3) =P(BBG or GGB) =1/8 + 1/8 =
 P (X= 4) =P(BBBB or BBBG or GGGB or GGGG) =1/16 + 1/16 + 1/16 + 1/16 =

(b) The probability of having two children is P (X = 2) =

8. A six-sided dice is biased yielding the following probability distribution for X, the
number of spots on the uppermost face when the die is rolled.

k 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X=k) 1 1 1 1+ 1+ 1+
6 6 6 6 6 6

(a) What values of are feasible, in order for P to be a probability distribution?

(b) Find P(X2) in terms of .
(c) Find P(2X5).
(d) What is the probability of rolling an odd number?

Soln:
1 1+ 1 1 1 1+ 1+ 1+
(a) 0 ; 6 0 and 6 + 6 + + + + =1 so that -1 1 except that 0
6 6 6 6 6
otherwise, we have a fair dice

1
(b) P(X 2) = P(X = 1) + ( = 2 ) = 2 ( )
6

(c) Pr(2 X 5) = P(X = 2) + ( = 3 ) + P(X = 4) + ( = 5 )

1 1+ 4 2
= 2( )+ 2( )= (6)=(3)
6 6

(d) The probability of rolling an odd number is

P(X is odd) = P(X = 1) + ( = 3 ) + ( = 5 )

1 1+
= 2( )+ ( )
6 6

1
= ( ) ( )
2 6