An influence of selected conditions on the production

of energy in photovoltaic panels based on correlation

coefficients

Pytel Krzysztof, Hudy Wiktor, Noga Henryk, Kulinowski Wojciech

Institute of Technology, Pedagogical University of Cracow, ul. PodchorąĪych 2
30-084 Kraków, Poland
kpytel@up.krakow.pl, whudy@up.krakow.pl, hnoga@up.krakow.pl, wkulinowski@up.krakow.pl

Abstract— The aim of this study was to analyze of the 35.5 [GW] and with a quarter of the world’s installed
efficiency of electricity production from the photovoltaic located photovoltaic capacity in that year, Germany was the world
in selected areas of the city of Krakow. Analysis was based on leader. The next two countries are China (18.3 [GW]) and
data relating to atmospheric pollution and sun exposure in Italy (17.6 [GW]) with 13 percent of total world’s installed in
selected areas. In order to take into account all the analyzed 2014 solar devices each other. Japan (13.6 [GW]), as well as
models, the analysis used the library MATLAB / Simulink and United States (12 [GW]) are the only countries that exceeded
artificial neural networks. The scope of the work was limited to 3 10 [GW] of installed capacity [5].
types of solar panels. Based on the research, it was found, that
the photovoltaic panels draw up different amounts of energy Novel large-scale PV systems could produce electricity at
from solar radiation depending on not only the climate, but also competitive prices. It could be possible thanks to the recent
anthropogenic conditions. advances in photovoltaic cell technology and properly chosen
localization of investment. Exposure to sunlight is taken into
Keywords— solar energy; urban air quality; correlation coefficient account when implementing solar panels investments. This
strongly affects the economic aspect of capital expenditure
I. INTRODUCTION
except for the availability of land. Simultaneously the energy
At the present time there are real technical possibilities for produced by photovoltaics is closely associated with operating
solar energy equipment to achieve the efficiency competitive temperature of PV cells, and thus indirectly with the ambient
with traditional sources of electricity. The most pragmatic and temperature, which is indicated by a temperature coefficients.
realistic alternative requiring the shortest possible period of This is another parameter to be considered when designing
time is the construction of solar panel in the form of automatic and implementing PV installations [6].
driven and modern devices which could be equipped with
novel multi-junction concentrator type solar cells, could have Nowadays, within the era of polluted air, another
solar cell designed for low cost and high concentration parameter which is taken into account is the climate change
systems, and would be combination of silicon and perovskites. which may be anthropogenic and natural origin. It should be
This device shall be expected to contribute to electricity cost included in the project PV system installation [7, 8]. The
reduction for widespread photovoltaic applications [1]. climate is changing both in time and in individual locations. It
However, on the basis of the same solar module, it could be is a global problem that affects entire economies, society and
possible to create super-high-efficiency (more than 60% [2, nature. Quantity and precipitation patterns are changing;
3]) and low-cost solar cells that would gradually bring us extreme weather conditions appear in addition to temperature
closer to the conception of low cost terrestrial concentrating changes. All of these factors have an influence on energy
applications more perfected than the most popular crystalline generation from PV systems. It is believed that these adverse
silicon solar modules. Key technologies for realizing climate changes are caused, among others, by atmospheric
efficiency and low-cost solar cells are essential for terrestrial concentrations of greenhouse gases. The solution to this
applications aiming at developing innovational technologies problem is to reduce emissions of these gases, thereby limiting
[4]. the impact of the increase in global temperature [9].

Solar energy is not a completely new idea, but it continues The international response to climate change includes the
to come forward as a substitute to fossil fuels. The best adoption of the United Nation Framework Convention on
possible selection of the number of solar modules at a Climate Change. The 2015 Paris Climate Conference aimed to
particular site is a vital economical problem. Cheaper and achieve a universal agreement on climate with the aim of
mass produced crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar cells are avoiding anthropogenic interference with the climate on the
commonly used on a commercial scale. Their prices are Earth. Nearly the 200 countries decided on actions aimed at
acceptable for investors implementing projects of large improving the functioning of the global economy through
photovoltaic installations. In 2014, Germany installed sustainable production and consumption.

978-1-4673-8606-7/16/$31.00 ©2016 IEEE 401

 The carried out analyzes shows the influence of Solar energy acts as the main power source for devices within
anthropogenic and natural parameters affecting the energy artificial earth satellites [19].
production by photovoltaics. Correlations between selected
factors were counted weather and on their basis the potential Modern systems produced to use solar energy are
losses in the amounts of produced energy are shown. extremely different. Significant differences relate to both types
of energy produced and the type of material for the solar
Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be module. Nowadays, there are several technology characterized
trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for by varying levels of efficiency in the field of power generation
identification and explanation without intent to infringe. (Fig. 1). There are many different types of solar modules on
the market and many manufacturers of some of the most
II. USE OF SOLAR ENERGY common types.
A utilization of wind and water energy started thousands of Being systems for maximum efficiency, multijunction
years ago, but the use of solar energy followed it [10]. (MJ) solar systems are preferred in space and are not used in
Initially, the energy of the sun was used by primitive residential applications. Despite of a relatively low ca 20% or
peoples for drying. Ancient civil engineering has evolved in less record efficiency in solar devices category, the relatively
areas with high sun exposure, allowing to create good living cheap crystalline silicon and thin-film solar panels are used in
conditions, as well as to avoid moisture and to fully exploit the commercial or residential installations. Using solar energy is
potential of solar energy [11]. The inventions of the Greeks often not taken into account the biggest problem, which is
was to construct focusing lens allowing kindling a fire in the currently the poor air quality. Air pollution started to play the
form of spherical glass vessel filled with water. It was strongest effects in urban areas on ecosystems, health and
approximately 400 BC [12]. Archimedes constructed a war industry since the second half of the 20th century. Efficiency
machine, which is a system of mirrors that focus the sunlight. and reliability of novel design photovoltaic systems should be
In this way, we were able to burn a fleet of enemy ships near coupled to the additional major factors affecting energy
Syracuse. It was about 212 BC, according to legend [13]. production that take into account some peculiarities
determined by considerable air pollution (Fig. 2) [7].
The Incas sent to the capital in Cusco information from a
distance of up to 3000 km through smoke signals. The source As a general rule, proper solar radiation is known, but
of the smoke was bundle of cotton flamed in the fire of climatological and weather condition are not always taken into
concave mirrors. That was before the 16th century [14]. account when using c-Si solar cells for terrestrial applications.
In 1769, Harace de Saussure placed 5 glass boxes one
MJ
inside the other, left on solar exposure and achieved a
temperature of 160°C in the inner box. He used his invention CIGS
for baking fruit and distilling water. In 1837, in South Africa,
CdTe
John Herschel covered desert sand by two glass panes and
received 120°C under them. This simple solar oven was used Amorphous silicon
to prepare meals [15].
Polysilicon
Augustin Mouchot built from 1866 solar motor supplying
Monocrystalline silicon
a small steam engine. He applied a practical parabolic trough
solar collector in Algiers for powering water pumping system. 0 10 20 30 40 50
In 1883, John Ericsson presented steam engine with a Efficiency [%]
cylindrical solar concentrator. In 1906, Frank Shuman built a
large solar pump [16]. Fig. 1. Efficiency of photovoltaic solar cells

Over time, solar energy increasingly enters the human life.

Location dependent
Practical ways of enabling the direct conversion of sunlight
Partial shading
into electricity have been developed. Recent years have Location dependent
contributed to the development of a separate direction in the Snow
solar industry called "daylighting". Daylight lighting systems
Diodes and wiring
developed for more health, well-being and efficiency
associated with the construction of systems and management Soil and dirt
of natural light, which can contribute to significant energy Ageing
savings, especially in public buildings [17, 18]. max
Angle of incidence min
Solar radiation is used more intensively for a large power
Temperature
and engineering industry. Solar power plants with an electrical
capacity from a few kilowatts to hundreds of megawatts are 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
already in operation. A solar furnace is a formation that uses Range [%]
concentrated solar power to produce high temperatures,
usually to generate electricity, melt steel or nanomaterials. Fig. 2. Supplementary most important effects on the energy production of
photovoltaic systems

2016 17th International Carpathian Control Conference (ICCC) 402

 The strongest effects of poor air quality are observed in Correlation measures the level of relationship between the
urban areas, where economic and societal activities make air variables numerical or qualitative factors, which can be
pollutants in one form or another. ordered. Correlation analysis in our case is used to determine
the relationship between two variables. The correlation
In order to estimate the relationship between climate and coefficient indicates the strength of the relationship and is
anthropogenic factors and the energy reaching the earth's defined as a value in the range [-1...1]. The strength of
surface on a plane set at an optimum angle to the sun's rays, association is higher when the ratio is more different from 0
we studied the correlation between all measured parameters. (both plus and minus). If the correlation coefficient is positive,
III. THE EXPERIMENTAL DATA it means that:
Analyses of the correlation between the experimental data • when the value of one variable is increasing the value of
on the amount of light intensity have been carried out by the other variable is increasing;
statistical test of correlation.
• when the value of one variable is decreasing the value
Analyses of the impact of specific climate factors on the of the other variable is decreasing.
amount of possible to gain energy have been carried out for
In contrast, if the correlation coefficient is negative, it
photovoltaic panels.
means that:
Analyses of the amount of electricity generated from solar
radiation were conducted in MATLAB/Simulink. Analyses • when the value of one variable is decreasing the value
were carrying out in two steps: of the other variable is increasing;

• measurements and collection of empirical data relating • when the value of one variable is increasing the value of
to the climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting the the other variable is decreasing.
amount of solar energy that is possible to use; The correlation coefficient of 1 indicates the strongest
positive correlation. The correlation coefficient of -1 indicates
• modeling of site specific PV system in
the strongest negative correlation. The correlation coefficient
MATLAB/Simulink.
of 0 indicates that the variables are not together in any way
Measurements were conducted for chosen localization in related.
Krakow, for analysed factors (Fig. 3):
A correlation coefficient is a coefficient that illustrates a
• light intensity, using a light meter; quantitative measure of some type of correlation and
dependence, meaning statistical relationships between two or
• cloudiness [octane]; more observed data values.
• pollutants: sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and nitrogen Types of correlation coefficients include:
dioxide, particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10;
• Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient;
• temperature [°C];
• Intraclass correlation;
• wind direction [o];
• Rank correlation:
• atmospheric pressure [Pa];
o Spearman's rank correlation coefficient;
• relative humidity [%].
o Kendall tau rank correlation coefficient;
Potential monthly global irradiation on optimally inclined
plane (Hopt [Wh/m2/day]) and an average daytime temperature o Goodman and Kruskal's gamma [21].
(TD [°C]) (Fig. 4) were estimated [20]. Irradiance diminishes
when the sun is at a low angle and temperature decreasing, as PM2.5 [g/m3] September
well. Nevertheless, every types of solar cell have a dissimilar PM10 [g/m3] July
temperature coefficient (monocrystalline and polycrystalline O3 (8h) [g/m3]
have -0.45% to -0.50% and amorphous based thin film have - O3 [g/m3]
0.20% to -0.25%). The amount of electricity produced by solar NO [g/m3]
panels depends on the ambient and module temperature. NOx [g/m3]
Different solar modules respond differently to the operating NO2 [g/m3]
temperature, but the efficiency of a solar panel decreases as it SO2 [g/m3]
increases in temperature. Cloud cover [%]
Wind [km/h]
One of the purposes of analysis was to determine the
Temperature [C]
correlation between the experimental data. A correlation is a
Illuminance [Lx]
way of analysing data. This might be useful for finding
association between data and show a tendency towards 1 10 100 1000
changes and it could be used to test the strength of the
association between climatic and anthropogenic factors. Fig. 3. A comparison of the measurements of average values of parameters
for chosen location in July and September

2016 17th International Carpathian Control Conference (ICCC) 403

 PM 2.5 PM 10 O3 (8h) O3 NO NOx NO2 SO2 Cloudy Wind T E
[μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [%] [m/s] [C] [lx]

0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
E 6000H
-0.1239 0.5239 0.5738 -0.3551 -0.3037 -0.2618 -0.1568 -0.8087 -0.1739 0.5820 -0.0441 1.000 opt
[lx]

TABLE I.
[Wh/m2/day]
T
0.1002 0.1598 -0.0200 0.1337 0.1870 0.2059 0.3885 -0.0635 0.2076 0.0270 1.000 -0.0441
[C]
Wind
0.2864 0.8240 0.8034 -0.4225 -0.3065 -0.2122 -0.2998 -0.4854 -0.0841 1.000 0.0270 0.5820
[m/s]
Cloudy
0.0021 0.0907 -0.0025 -0.0860 -0.1084 -0.1175 -0.2348 0.0223 1.000 -0.0841 0.2076 -0.1739
[%]
SO2

in chosen localization in Krakow

0.1417 -0.4018 -0.4748 0.3476 0.3121 0.2818 0.0675 1.000 0.0223 -0.4854 -0.0635 -0.8087
[μg/m3]
NO2
0.1259 -0.2437 -0.3337 0.3647 0.4354 0.4505 1.000 0.0675 -0.2348 -0.2998 0.3885 -0.1568
[μg/m3] Month
NOx
0.4740 -0.3957 -0.5246 0.8337 0.9737 1.000 0.4505 0.2818 -0.1175 -0.2122 0.2059 -0.2618
[μg/m3]
NO
0.4263 -0.4967 -0.6289 0.9357 1.000 0.9737 0.4354 0.3121 -0.1084 -0.3065 0.1870 -0.3037
[μg/m3]

Type of correlation adopted to analysis:

O3
0.3112 -0.6028 -0.7278 1.000 0.9357 0.8337 0.3647 0.3476 -0.0860 -0.4225 0.1337 -0.3551
[μg/m3]
TD

O3 (8h)
Hopt

0.0665 0.9046 1.000 -0.7278 -0.6289 -0.5246 -0.3337 -0.4748 -0.0025 0.8034 -0.0200 0.5738
[μg/m3]
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

PM 10
3
8

-2

0.1328 1.000 0.9046 -0.6028 -0.4967 -0.3957 -0.2437 -0.4018 0.0907 0.8240 0.1598 0.5239
13
18
23

[μg/m3]
TD28[°C]

PM 2.5
PEARSON PRODUCT-MOMENT CORRELATION COEFFICIENT

1.000 0.1328 0.0665 0.3112 0.4263 0.4740 0.1259 0.1417 0.0021 0.2864 0.1002 -0.1239
[μg/m3]
Fig. 4. Potential monthly global irradiation and average daytime temperature

PM 2.5 PM 10 O3 (8h) O3 NO NOx NO2 SO2 Cloudy Wind T E

[μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [μg/m3] [%] [m/s] [C] [lx]
E
-0.1207 0.4952 0.5633 -0.4223 -0.3274 -0.2965 -0.1413 -0.8559 -0.1635 0.5611 -0.0973 1.000
[lx]
T
0.0871 0.1412 -0.0447 0.1737 0.2275 0.2434 0.2944 -0.0701 0.1770 0.0104 1.000 -0.0973
[C]
TABLE II.

Wind
decreases.

0.3393 0.8046 0.7930 -0.5013 -0.3066 -0.2013 -0.3153 -0.4967 -0.1080 1.000 0.0104 0.5611
[m/s]
Cloudy
|r|=1 - full correlation

-0.0541 0.0799 -0.0064 -0.0293 -0.0028 -0.0669 -0.1818 0.0185 1.000 -0.1080 0.1770 -0.1635
[%]
increases, Y too;

|r|=0 - lack of correlation

2016 17th International Carpathian Control Conference (ICCC)

SO2
0.0663 -0.4255 -0.4905 0.3900 0.2791 0.2581 0.1180 1.000 0.0185 -0.4967 -0.0701 -0.8559
[μg/m3]
0.5<|r|”0.7 - high correlation
0.0<|r|”0.1 - faint correlation
0.1<|r|”0.3 - weak correlation

NO2
0.1173 -0.2443 -0.3151 0.4430 0.4881 0.5001 1.000 0.1180 -0.1818 -0.3153 0.2944 -0.1413
0.3<|r|”0.5 - average correlation

[μg/m3]
0.7<|r|”0.9 - very high correlation
0.9<|r|<1.0 - almost full correlation

NOx
0.3380 -0.3991 -0.5015 0.7851 0.9768 1.000 0.5001 0.2581 -0.0669 -0.2013 0.2434 -0.2965
[μg/m3]
NO
0.2530 -0.4999 -0.6166 0.8607 1.000 0.9768 0.4881 0.2791 -0.0028 -0.3066 0.2275 -0.3274
increases and sometimes decreases;

[μg/m3]
O3
0.1649 -0.6865 -0.8097 1.000 0.8607 0.7851 0.4430 0.3900 -0.0293 -0.5013 0.1737 -0.4223
[μg/m3]
O3 (8h)
0.0939 0.8984 1.000 -0.8097 -0.6166 -0.5015 -0.3151 -0.4905 -0.0064 0.7930 -0.0447 0.5633
[μg/m3]
Classification adopted to analysis (by J.Guilford):

PM 10
0.1366 1.000 0.8984 -0.6865 -0.4999 -0.3991 -0.2443 -0.4255 0.0799 0.8046 0.1412 0.4952
SPEARMAN'S RANK CORRELATION COEFFICIENT

[μg/m3]

404
PM 2.5
1.000 0.1366 0.0939 0.1649 0.2530 0.3380 0.1173 0.0663 -0.0541 0.3393 0.0871 -0.1207
[μg/m3]
• r>0 - a positive correlation, when the value of X

• r <0 - negative correlation, when X increases, Y

• r=0 - no correlation, when X increases, Y sometimes
 Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient it could be
indicate that the light intensity depending on:
• a very high dependence of SO2;
• a high dependency of O3 (8h);
• a high dependency of wind speed;
• a high dependency of PM10;
• an average dependency of O3;
• an average dependency of NO.
According to the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient it
could be indicate that the light intensity depending on:
• a very high dependence of SO2;
• a high dependency of O3 (8h);
Fig. 5. A comparison of the Pearson product - moment correlation
coefficient. The correlation the light intensity and NO (ins. A), O3 (ins. B), • a high dependency of wind speed;
O3(8h) (ins. C), PM10 (ins. D), SO2 (ins. E) and wind speed (ins. F)
• an average dependency of PM10;
• an average dependency of O3;
• an average dependency of NO.
Correlation is a measure of the extent to which chosen
variables are related. It could be presented visually by drawing
a scatter gram. Graphs of the association to which two
variables are related were made. A positive correlation would
be the light intensity and NO, O3. A negative correlation
would be the light intensity and O3 (8h), PM10, SO2 and wind
speed. There are some almost zero correlations between two
variables. There is no relationship between the light intensity
and the amount cloud cover.
We used Kolmogorov Smirnov test for measured data to
compare results (Table III). Verifications, if the variables have
the same distribution on the level of significance of 0.05 were
Fig. 6. A comparison of the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. The
correlation the light intensity and NO (ins. A), O3 (ins. B), O3(8h) (ins. C), performed. In all analysed cases, Ȝ<ȜĮ=0.05 , that is the
PM10 (ins. D), SO2 (ins. E) and wind speed (ins. F) distribution type of variables are the same.
Both the climate and anthropogenic factors influence on
TABLE III. THE RESULTS OF KOLMOGOROV SMIRNOV TEST FOR SOME
MEASURED DATA amount of energy produced by solar modules. PV installations
located in the chosen setting were modelled in
Variables Dmax Ȝ ȜĮ=0.05 MATLAB/Simulink tools [8].
E 0.085717 0.47725 1.36 An impact of climatic and anthropogenic conditions on the
wind 0.011352 0.06321 1.36
amount of energy generated showed sensitivity to changes in
reverse saturation current, serial resistance, conversion
SO2 0.030090 0.16754 1.36 efficiency, and temperature [22]. Power output varies
NO 0.101710 0.56629 1.36 according to the intensity of solar radiation. PV cells have a
higher efficiency at low temperatures. Output power decreases
O3 0.048671 0.27099 1.36 with increasing temperature, but getting a low temperature of
O3(8h) 0.043202 0.24054 1.36 PV is difficult for the implementation at high ambient
temperature.
PM10 0.016843 0.09378 1.36
Among the analyzed devices, the module made of
monocrystalline silicon is more efficient for large differences
In general, the value the greater than 0.5 can be designate in operating temperature than module made of policrystalline
as a sufficient dependence between variables. Dependencies silicon and thin-film solar panels. Simultaneously, the module
between variables were marked in shades of gray (Tables 1 made of monocrystalline silicon is more efficient in winter at
and 2). Analyzes of the most interesting correlations were the increased proportion of a scattered radiation and lower
carried out depending on the light intensity. According to the ambient temperatures.

2016 17th International Carpathian Control Conference (ICCC) 405

 indicate that the light intensity in summer months highly
depending on SO2 and O3 (8h), less on wind speed and PM10
concentrations on the maximum light intensity. According to
the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient it could be indicate
that the light intensity in summer months highly depending on
SO2, less on O3 (8h) and wind speed concentrations on the
maximum light intensity. The impact of the particle pollutions
on the amount of energy obtained is visible in the winter. The
simulation results allow determining the amount of energy
acquired at the influence of temperatures. The results let
evaluation of the behaviour of photovoltaic systems in the set
of climatic and anthropological conditions.
Fig. 7. Power output at different temperatures for Monocrystalline Solar
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2016 17th International Carpathian Control Conference (ICCC) 406