Weibayes Zero-Failure Test Plan and Risk Asses

About This Workbook

This MS Excel Workbook was developed as a supplementary tool in support of the paper/presentation entitled "Weib
Beta is Incorrect?" by David Nicholls and Paul Lein of the Reliability Information Analysis Center (RIAC), and prese
Maintainability Symposium, 26-30 January 2009 in Fort Worth, TX. The paper/presentation and this spreadsheet are
sudden-death test plans. The Workbook is available for download at the RIAC website or by contacting the Authors

All Weibayes analysis equations used within this Workbook are taken from "The New Weibull Handbook - 5th Edition
1996, 1998, 2000, 2004 by Robert B. Abernethy. Copies of Dr. Abernethy's book may be purchased directly from t
Weibayes analysis, or to Weibull analysis in general, may be directed to Dr. Abernethy. The RIAC also offers Dr. Ab
course or on-site formats. Visit the course outline on the RIAC website for more information. The new world standar
2, released in August 2008, includes the Weibayes analysis methodology as described in "The New Weibull Handbo
on the IEC committee.

All other equations and mathematical derivations used in our paper and within this Workbook are based on the stand

This MS Excel Workbook is Copyright 2009 by Quanterion Solutions Incorporated.

Link to the RIAC 'Demos & Downloads' Webpage

Contact David Nicholls
Contact Paul Lein
Contact Dr. Abernethy
Order "The New Weibull Handbook - 5th Edition" from RIAC
View the RIAC Weibull Analysis Course Overview
Purchase the Weibull Analysis IEC 61649 Ed. 2.0 B 2008 from ANSI

How to Use This Workbook

Select the 'Weibayes Data Input' Tab and input the following data elements: (1) the Design Life Requirement and th
cycles or miles), (2) the Required Reliability at the Design Life Requirement, (3) the Estimated Average Cost of One
the Field, (5) an Assumed Beta 1 Value and (6) an Assumed Beta 2 Value. These inputs are used to generate a tab
as a function of sample size and based on your inputs for Items 1 through 6. The only purpose for entering two assu
impact of the beta value on the calculated Weibayes zero-failure test durations per sample at a fixed sample size.

Once the Weibayes Test Plan Table is reviewed, the User will need to input (7) the Sample Size to be used for the a
the analysis is to be based. Note that the Workbook suggests a value for each. The Sample Size suggestion is bas
value of beta at the By life value (e.g., R = 0.90 represents the B10 life), as described in our RAMS paper/presentation
the lower of the values of the two Assumed Beta values input as (5) and (6). This suggestion is based on a more co
negative risk impact if the "true" beta value is different than the assumed risk. The Weibayes Zero-Failure Test Dura
on user inputs for (7) and (8).

The 'Results' Tab provides a tabular and graphical representation of the Weibayes analysis results based on all use
values around the user-input "assumed" beta value are performed to generate three useful sets of results: (A) the De
between the Design Life you think you demonstrated and what you actually demonstrated), (B) the Change in the Ex
between the number of failures you think you'll be seeing based on your "assumed" beta and the number of addition
seeing based on the "true" beta value) and (C) the Unanticipated Cost Impact (i.e., the Estimated Average Cost of O
unanticipated failures from result (B).

Based on these results, informed trade off decisions can be made regarding optimal combinations of design life requ
sample for Weibayes zero-failure test plans in order to mitigate potential negative risk.
Once the Weibayes Test Plan Table is reviewed, the User will need to input (7) the Sample Size to be used for the a
the analysis is to be based. Note that the Workbook suggests a value for each. The Sample Size suggestion is bas
value of beta at the By life value (e.g., R = 0.90 represents the B10 life), as described in our RAMS paper/presentation
the lower of the values of the two Assumed Beta values input as (5) and (6). This suggestion is based on a more co
negative risk impact if the "true" beta value is different than the assumed risk. The Weibayes Zero-Failure Test Dura
on user inputs for (7) and (8).

The 'Results' Tab provides a tabular and graphical representation of the Weibayes analysis results based on all use
values around the user-input "assumed" beta value are performed to generate three useful sets of results: (A) the De
between the Design Life you think you demonstrated and what you actually demonstrated), (B) the Change in the Ex
between the number of failures you think you'll be seeing based on your "assumed" beta and the number of addition
seeing based on the "true" beta value) and (C) the Unanticipated Cost Impact (i.e., the Estimated Average Cost of O
unanticipated failures from result (B).

Based on these results, informed trade off decisions can be made regarding optimal combinations of design life requ
sample for Weibayes zero-failure test plans in order to mitigate potential negative risk.

About the Reliability Information Analysis Center (

The Reliability Information Analysis Center (RIAC) is a US Department of Defense (DoD) Information Analysis Cente
Center. The RIAC is operated by a team of Wyle Laboratories (Prime Contractor), Quanterion Solutions Incorporate
Center for Risk and Reliability, the Pennsylvania State University Applied Research Laboratory (ARL) and the State
(SUNYIT).

Neither the United States Government nor the Wyle Laboratories contract team warrant the accuracy of the informat
cautioned that the data contained herein may not be used in lieu of other contractually cited references and specifica
 d Risk Assessment Calculator
orkbook
r/presentation entitled "Weibayes Testing: What is the Impact if Assumed
is Center (RIAC), and presented at the 2009 Annual Reliability and
ion and this spreadsheet are limited in scope to Weibayes zero-failure and
r by contacting the Authors by email.

eibull Handbook - 5th Edition" by Dr. Robert B Abernethy, Copyright 1993,

be purchased directly from the RIAC. Questions pertaining specifically to
The RIAC also offers Dr. Abernethy's Weibull Analysis training course in open-
ion. The new world standard for Weibull Analysis, IEC 61649 Edition 2 -2008-
n "The New Weibull Handbook". Dr. Abernethy served as the principal author

book are based on the standard Weibull equation and basic algebra.

Workbook
sign Life Requirement and the life units of that requirement (select from hours,
mated Average Cost of One Repair (in dollars), (4) the Total Number of Units in
s are used to generate a table of potential Weibayes test durations per sample
urpose for entering two assumed beta values is to provide visibility into the
le at a fixed sample size.

ple Size to be used for the analysis and (8) the assumed beta value upon which
mple Size suggestion is based on the intersection of the "assumed" and "true"
ur RAMS paper/presentation. The Assumed Beta Value suggestion represents
stion is based on a more conservative approach to risk, as there will be less
ayes Zero-Failure Test Duration per sample is automatically calculated based

ysis results based on all user inputs. Step-function calculations of "true" beta
ful sets of results: (A) the Design Life Requirement Error (i.e., the discrepancy
d), (B) the Change in the Expected Number of Failures (i.e., the discrepancy
and the number of additional, unanticipated failures that you may actually be
stimated Average Cost of One Failure, multiplied by the number of additional,

mbinations of design life requirements, sample sizes and test durations per
n Analysis Center (RIAC)
Information Analysis Center sponsored by the Defense Technical Information
terion Solutions Incorporated (Core Operations), the University of Maryland
oratory (ARL) and the State University of New York Institute of Technology

he accuracy of the information and data contained herein. The user is further
ted references and specifications.
 Weibayes Zero-Failure Inputs and Test Duration Calculator

Required
Design Life
Life Units Reliability at
Requirement
Design Life
2,000 Hours 0.80

Assumed Assumed
Beta 1 Beta 2
Value Value
Sample Size
(N) 1.70 2.60
Required Hours per Sample for
Weibayes Zero-Failure Test
1 4,833 3,561
2 3,215 2,728
3 2,533 2,334
4 2,138 2,089
5 1,875 1,918
6 1,685 1,788
7 1,539 1,685
8 1,422 1,600
9 1,327 1,530
10 1,247 1,469
11 1,179 1,416
12 1,120 1,369
13 1,069 1,328
14 1,023 1,290
15 983 1,257
16 946 1,226
17 913 1,198
18 883 1,172
19 855 1,147
20 830 1,125
21 806 1,104
22 784 1,085
23 764 1,066
24 745 1,049
25 728 1,033
26 711 1,017
27 695 1,002
28 681 988
29 667 975
30 654 963
and Test Duration Calculator

Estimated Ave Cost of One Repair

($)

$875.00

Total Number of Fielded Units

5,000

Suggested Minimum Sample Size

for Analysis
5
Input Sample Size to be Used for
Analysis
3

Suggested Assumed Beta Value

for Analysis
1.70
Select Assumed Beta Value for
Analysis
 2.60

Weibayes Zero-Failure Test

Duration per Sample (Hours)
2,334
 Analysis of Weibayes Zero-Failure Test Plan Results & Risk Impact Based on Assumed Beta Value

Inputs from Weibayes Data Input Sheet

Weibayes Zero- Required

Design Life
Design Life Units Assumed Beta Value Failure Test Duration Sample Size, N Reliability at
Requirement
per Sample (Hours) Design Life

2,000 Hours 2.60 2,334 3 0.80

Output Results and Risk Impact from Weibayes Zero-Failure Test Plan

Percent of Design Change in

Design Life
Actual Demonstrated Life Requirement Number of
"True" Requirement Error
Design Life (Hours) Actually Expected
Beta Value (Hours) at
at R = 0.8 Demonstrated at Failures at
R = 0.8
R = 0.8 R = 0.8

0.60 1,196 59.8% -804 310

0.70 1,315 65.8% -685 293
0.80 1,413 70.7% -587 276
0.90 1,494 74.7% -506 259
1.00 1,562 78.1% -438 242
1.10 1,620 81.0% -380 226
1.20 1,670 83.5% -330 210
1.30 1,714 85.7% -286 194
1.40 1,752 87.6% -248 178
1.50 1,786 89.3% -214 162
1.60 1,816 90.8% -184 146
1.70 1,843 92.2% -157 131
1.80 1,867 93.4% -133 116
1.90 1,889 94.5% -111 101
2.00 1,909 95.5% -91 86
2.10 1,928 96.4% -72 71
2.20 1,945 97.2% -55 56
2.30 1,960 98.0% -40 42
2.40 1,974 98.7% -26 28
2.50 1,988 99.4% -12 14
2.60 2,000 100.0% 0 0
2.70 2,011 100.6% 11 -14
2.80 2,022 101.1% 22 -27
2.90 2,032 101.6% 32 -41
3.00 2,042 102.1% 42 -54
3.10 2,050 102.5% 50 -67
3.20 2,059 102.9% 59 -80
3.30 2,067 103.3% 67 -92
3.40 2,074 103.7% 74 -105
3.50 2,081 104.0% 81 -117
3.60 2,088 104.4% 88 -130
3.70 2,094 104.7% 94 -142
3.80 2,100 105.0% 100 -154
3.90 2,106 105.3% 106 -166
4.00 2,111 105.6% 111 -177
4.10 2,116 105.8% 116 -189
4.20 2,121 106.1% 121 -200
4.30 2,126 106.3% 126 -211
4.40 2,130 106.5% 130 -222
4.50 2,135 106.7% 135 -233
4.60 2,139 106.9% 139 -244
ed on Assumed Beta Value

Design Life Requirement Error vs "True" Beta Value

Estimated Ave.
Total Number of
Cost of One based on Assumed Beta Value
Fielded Units
Repair ($) 200

5,000 $875.00

Design Life Requirement Error

0

-200
st Plan

-400

Unanticipated Cost
Impact at -600
R = 0.8

-800
$271,369
$256,308 -1000
$241,409 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00

$226,671 "True" Beta Value

$212,093
$197,676
Change in Number of Expected Failures vs "True" Beta Value
$183,417
based on Assumed Beta Value
$169,317
400
$155,374
$141,588 300
f Expected Faiulres

$127,957
200

100

0
 Change in Number of Expected Failures vs "True" Beta Value
based on Assumed Beta Value
400

300

Number of Expected Faiulres

$114,481 200
$101,159
$87,990 100

$74,973
0
$62,106
$49,389
-100
$36,821
$24,401 -200
$12,128
$0 -300
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
-$11,983
-$23,823 "True" Beta Value
-$35,520
-$47,077
-$58,493 Unanticipated Cost Impact vs "True" Beta Value
-$69,770
based on Assumed Beta Value
$300,000
Unanticipated Cost Impact (Thousands)

-$80,909
-$91,912
$200,000
-$102,779
-$113,512
$100,000
-$124,111
-$134,579
$0
-$144,916
-$155,123
-$100,000
-$165,202
-$175,154
-$200,000
-$184,979
-$194,680
-$300,000
-$204,257
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
-$213,712
"True" Beta Value
Value

0 4.00 4.50 5.00

Beta Value
Beta Value

0 4.00 4.50 5.00

alue

50 4.00 4.50 5.00