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    Load Forecasting Methods

    Uploaded by

    Janapareddy Veerendra Kumar
    Forecasting Methods

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Load Forecasting Methods

    Uploaded by

    Janapareddy Veerendra Kumar
    533 views3 pages
    Forecasting Methods

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

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    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

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    Forecasting Methods

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    533 views3 pages

    Load Forecasting Methods

    Uploaded by

    Janapareddy Veerendra Kumar
    Forecasting Methods

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 3

    SAS - Electric Load Forecasting: Fundamentals and Best

    Practices

    Code: BELF
    Length: 2 days
    URL: View Online

    This course introduces electric load forecasting from both statistical and practical aspects using language and examples from the
    power industry. Through conceptual and hands-on exercises, participants experience load forecasting for a variety of horizons
    from a few hours ahead to 30 years ahead. The overall aims are to prepare and sharpen the statistical and analytical skills of
    participants in dealing with real-world load forecasting problems and improve their ability to design, develop, document, and
    report sound and defensible load forecasts.

    According to statistics gathered on the first five offerings, this course was highly rated by students who ranged from new
    graduates with no industry or SAS experience to forecasting experts with over 30 years of industry experience and over 20 years
    of SAS programming background. The students represented all sectors of the industry: G&T, ISO, distribution companies, REPs,
    IOU, co-op, municipal, regulatory commission, and consulting firm. Titles of the participants ranged from analyst, engineer,
    manager, to director and vice president.

    For advanced topics, pair this course with Electric Load Forecasting: Advanced Topics and Case Studies The two courses are
    offered on contiguous days.

    Skills Gained
    classify load forecasts

    use basic graphic methods to discover the salient features of load profiles

    build a benchmark model for a wide range of utilities

    capture special effects for a local utility

    forecast loads for both small and large utilities

    improve very short-term forecasting accuracy

    perform weather normalization

    use macroeconomic indicators for long-term load forecasts

    detect outliers

    continue improving forecasting practice

    avoid making frequently made mistakes.

    Who Can Benefit


    Load/price forecasters, energy traders, quantitative/business analysts in the utility industry, power system planners, power

    system operators, load research analysts, and rate design analysts

    Prerequisites
    Before attending this course, you should

    have a basic knowledge of the utility industry

    have a basic understanding of forecasting.

    Course Details

    Introduction to Electric Load Forecasting


    overview of the electric power industry

    business needs of load forecasts

    driving factors of electricity consumption

    classification of load forecasts

    software applications

    Salient Features of Electric Load Series


    a general approach to electric load forecasting

    overview of the data pool

    trend and seasonality

    more salient features

    Multiple Linear Regression


    naive models

    trend

    class variables

    polynomial regression

    interaction regression

    rolling regression

    A Naive Benchmark for Short-term Load Forecasting


    motivation

    criterion

    a naive MLR benchmark

    applications

    two more salient features

    Customizing the Benchmarking Model


    recency effect

    weekend effect

    holiday effect

    case studies

    two more salient features


    Very Short-Term Load Forecasting
    hour ahead load forecasting

    weighted least squares regression

    dynamic regression

    two-stage method

    extensions

    Medium/Long-Term Load Forecasting


    macroeconomic indicator

    weather normalization

    forecasting with weather variation

    forecasting with cross scenarios

    Variables, Methods, Techniques, and Further Readings


    load, weather, calendar, macroeconomic indicator, etc.

    similar day and hierarchy

    regression

    ARIMA

    exponential smoothing

    support vector machine

    artificial neural networks

    fuzzy systems and fuzzy regression

    relevant and readable books

    load forecasting papers

    training courses

    Frequently Made Mistakes


    counterexamples

    expectation

    data

    models

    decisions

    Software Applications

    ExitCertified® Corporation and iMVP® are registered trademarks of ExitCertified ULC and ExitCertified Generated 4
    Corporation and Tech Data Corporation, respectively
    Copyright ©2019 Tech Data Corporation and ExitCertified ULC & ExitCertified Corporation.
    All Rights Reserved.

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