2016

Cairo University

Faculty of Engineering

Petroleum Department

Reserves Estimation
Methods

GROUP 2: B.N
AHMED BADIE BEDEER 1
AHMED ABDEL REHEEM SHAABAN 6
PETER NAGEH IBRAHIM 10
ABDULLAH IBRAHIM ABO ALAZM 15
MOSTAFA ASEM ABDEL SABOUR 27

Presented To:

Prof. Dr. Mohamed Khiri Ali Ahmed

Table of Contents
Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 2
Reserves Estimation Methods ............................................................................................................................ 3
Volumetric........................................................................................................................................................ 3
Material Balance ............................................................................................................................................... 7
Decline Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..10

Analogy…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….17

Summery…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………18

References………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………19

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Introduction:
To better understand reserves estimation, a few important terms require definition. Original oil in place
(OOIP) and original gas in place (OGIP) refer to the total volume of hydrocarbon stored in a reservoir prior to
production. Reserves or recoverable reserves are the volume of hydrocarbons that can be profitably
extracted from a reservoir using existing technology. Resources are reserves plus all other hydrocarbons that
may eventually become producible; this includes known oil and gas deposits present that cannot be
technologically or economically recovered (OOIP and OGIP) as well as other undiscovered potential reserves.

The process of estimating oil and gas reserves for a producing field continues throughout the life of the field.
There is always uncertainty in making such estimates. The level of uncertainty is affected by the following
factors:

1. Reservoir type,

2. Source of reservoir energy,

3. Quantity and quality of the geological, engineering, and geophysical data,

4. Assumptions adopted when making the estimate,

5. Available technology, and 6. Experience and knowledge of the evaluator.

Estimating hydrocarbon reserves is a complex process that involves integrating geological and engineering
data. Depending on the amount and quality of data available, one or more of the following methods may be
used to estimate reserves:

 Volumetric
 Material balance
 Decline Analysis
 Analogy

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 Reserves Estimation Methods

Volumetric Method:

Application of volumetric method is original oil in place (OOIP), original gas in place (OGIP), recoverable
reserves. Use early in life of field

Accuracy of volumetric method is Dependent on quality of reservoir description, Reserves estimates often
high because this method does not consider problems of reservoir heterogeneity.

Volumetric estimates of (OOIP) and (OGIP) are based on a geological model that geometrically describes the
volume of hydrocarbons in the reservoir. However, due mainly to gas evolving from the oil as pressure and
temperature are decreased, oil at the surface occupies less space than it does in the subsurface. Conversely,
gas at the surface occupies more space than it does in the subsurface because of expansion. This
necessitates correcting subsurface volumes to standard units of volume measured at surface conditions.

One basic volumetric equation is

where

N = OOIP (STB)

7758 = conversion factor from acre-ft to bbl

A = area of reservoir (acres) from map data

h = height or thickness of pay zone (ft) from log and/or core data

ø = porosity (decimal) from log and/or core data

Sw = connate water saturation (decimal) from log and/or core data

Boi = formation volume factor for oil at initial conditions (reservoir bbl/STB) from lab data

Another basic volumetric equation is

where

G = OGIP(SCF)

43560 = conversion factor from acre-ft to ft3

Bgi = formation volume factor for gas at initial conditions (RES ft3/SCF)

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Oil reserves are usually obtained by applying a recovery factor (FR)
to the oil place , the (FR) is determined from :

1-displacement efficiency studies:

D
i where RF = recovery factor, which equals RFP + RFS

The primary recovery factor, RFP, is estimated from the type of drive mechanism(table)lace

Estimation of primary recovery factor

Drive Mechanism Primary Recovery Factor Drive Mechanism (%)

Depletion

Solution gas 18–25

Expansion 2–5

Gas cap drive 20–40

Water drive

Bottom 20–40

Edge 35–60

Gravity 50–70

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The secondary recovery factor, RFS, equals

where

ED = displacement efficiency

EA = areal sweep efficiency

EV = vertical sweep efficiency

These efficiency terms are influenced by such factors as residual oil saturation, relative permeability,
reservoir heterogeneity, and operational limitations that govern reservoir production and management.
Thus, it is difficult to calculate the recovery factor directly using these terms

The basic equation to calculate recoverable gas reserves is

In this case, the recovery factor (RF) is typically higher than for oil reservoirs; it is often near unity for dry
gas reservoirs.

2-correlation based on statistical studies of particular

type of reservoir mechanisms :
For water drive reservoirs

Guthrie and Greenberger correlation for water drive recovery is

RF= 0.114 + 0.272 log K + 0.256 Sw – 0.136 log (VISo) –1.534por-0.00035h

where

k (md) vis(cp) h(ft)

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3. Applying appropriate barrel per acre-foot recovery
figue:
Under initial conditions one acre-foot of bulk volume of oil productive rock contains:

(Undersaturated reservoir)

Interstitial water = 7758x por x Swi, bbl/ac-ft

Reservoir oil = 7758x por x (1-Swi), bbl/ac-ft

Stock tank oil = 7758x por x (1-Swi)/ oi, STB/ac-ft

For volumetric reservoirs, We = 0, but Sg increases.

If Sg is the gas saturation and FVFo OFF at

abandonment conditions, one acre-foot of bulk

rock contains:

Interstitial water = 7758x por x Swi, bbl/ac-ft

Reservoir gas = 7758x por x Sg, , bbl/ac-ft

Reservoir oil = 7758x por x (1-Swi-Sg), bbl/ac-ft

Stock tank oil = 7758x por x (1-Swi-Sg)/fvfo, STB/ac-ft

Recovery = 7758x por x [(1-Swi)/fvfoi - (1-Swi- Sg)/fvfo], STB/acft

Fractional recovery =1-[(1-Swi- Sg)/(1-Swi)][fvfoi/fvfo]

For water drive reservoirs, the oil remaining at

abandonment is:

Reservoir oil = 7758x por x Sor, bbl/ac-ft

Stock tank oil = 7758x por x Sor/fvfoi, STB/ac-ft

Recovery = 7758x por x(1-Swi-Sor)/fvfoi, STB/ac-ft

RF = (1-Swi-Sor) / (1-Swi)

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Material Balance:

The concept of the material balance equation was presented by schilthuis in 1941. The material balance
equation(MBE) is one of the basic tools of reservoir Engineering for interpreting and predicting reservoir
performance. The MBE can be used to:

Estimate initial hydrocarbon in place (Reserve Estimate)

Predict future reservoir performance

Predict ultimate recovery under various types of primary driving mechanisms

The equation is structured to simply keep inventory of all materials entering, leaving, and accumulating in
the reservoir. In its simplest form, the equation can be written on volumetric basis as:

𝑰𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝒗𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆 = 𝑽𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆 𝒓𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒊𝒏𝒈 + 𝒗𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆 𝒓𝒆𝒎𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒅

The general material balance equation is simply a volumetric balance, which states that the volume of a
reservoir (as defined by its initial limits) is a constant, the algebraic sum of the volume changes of the oil,
free gas, water, and rock volumes in the reservoir must be zero.

𝜟𝑽𝒐𝒊𝒍 + 𝜟𝑽𝒈𝒂𝒔 + 𝜟𝑽𝒘𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒓 + 𝜟𝑽𝒓𝒐𝒄𝒌 = 𝒛𝒆𝒓𝒐

In making these calculations the following production, reservoir, and laboratory data are involved:

Production history data

Pressure history data

PVT data

We (Water influx)

m ratio
𝐼𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑜𝑖𝑟 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒
𝑚 =
𝐼𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑜𝑖𝑟 𝑜𝑖𝑙 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒

For simplicity, the derivation is divided into the changes in the oil, gas, water, and rock volumes that
occur between the start of production and any time t. The change in the rock volume is expressed as a
change in the void space volume, which is simply the negative of the change in the rock volume. In the
development of the general material balance equation, the following terms are used:

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N Initial reservoir oil, STB

Bti / Bt Initial / two phase formation volume factor, bbl/STB

Np Cumulative produced oil, STB

G Initial reservoir gas, SCF

Bgi / Bg Initial / gas formation volume factor, bbl/SCF

Rsoi /Rso Initial / Solution gas oil ratio SCF/STB

Rp Cumulative Produced gas-oil ratio, SCF/STB

Wp Cumulative produced water, STB

Bw Water formation volume factor, bbl/STB

We Water influx into reservoir, bbl

Cw Water isothermal compressibility, Psi^-1

ΔP’ Change in average reservoir pressure, psia

Swi initial water saturation

Cf Formation isothermal compressibility, psi^-1

Gi Injected gas, SCF

Big Gas formation volume factor of the injected gas, bbl/SCF

Wi Injected Water, STB

After derivation, the general form of MBE is:

𝑵𝒎𝑩𝒕𝒊 𝑪𝒘𝑺𝒘𝒊 + 𝑪𝒇
𝑵(𝑩𝒕 − 𝑩𝒕𝒊) + (𝑩𝒈 − 𝑩𝒈𝒊) + (𝟏 + 𝒎)𝑵𝑩𝒕𝒊 [ ] + 𝑾𝒆 + 𝑮𝒊 ∗ 𝑩𝒊𝒈 + 𝑾𝒊 ∗ 𝑩𝒘𝒊
𝑩𝒈𝒊 𝟏 − 𝑺𝒘𝒊
= 𝑵𝒑[𝑩𝒕 + (𝑹𝒑 − 𝑹𝒔𝒐𝒊)𝑩𝒈] + 𝑩𝒘 ∗ 𝑾𝒑

To get original oil in place (N):

𝑵𝒑[𝑩𝒕 + (𝑹𝒑 − 𝑹𝒔𝒐𝒊)𝑩𝒈] − 𝑾𝒆 + 𝑾𝒑 ∗ 𝑩𝒘 − 𝑮𝒊 ∗ 𝑩𝒊𝒈 − 𝑾𝒊 ∗ 𝑩𝒘
𝑵=
𝑩𝒈 𝑺𝒘𝒊𝑪𝒘 + 𝑪𝒇
(𝑩𝒕 − 𝑩𝒕𝒊) + 𝒎𝑩𝒕𝒊 [
𝑩𝒈𝒊 − 𝟏] + 𝑩𝒕𝒊(𝟏 + 𝒎)[ 𝟏 − 𝑺𝒘𝒊 ]𝜟𝑷′

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Basic Assumption in the MBE:

Constant temperature

Pressure equilibrium

Constant reservoir volume

Reliable production data

The reservoir has uniform porosity and relative permeability characteristics

The PVT properties are representative of reservoir conditions

Recovery is independent of rate

Sources of errors:

Non-representative samples

Inaccurate average pressure

Inaccurate determination of m ratio

Inaccurate production data

Errors on calculated values of we

The material balance method may be used to check the previous estimates of hydrocarbons initially in
place(Volumetric), after performance data become mature.

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Decline Analysis:

Conceptual Definition of Decline Analysis

Decline analysis is a reservoir engineering empirical technique that extrapolates trends in the production
data from oil and gas wells. The purpose of a Decline analysis is to generate a forecast of future production
rates and to determine the expected ultimate recoverable (EUR) reserves.

Typically, decline analysis is conducted on a plot of rate versus time or rate versus cumulative production (as
shown in figure above). The most commonly used trending equations are those first documented by J.J. Arps
(1945). The following figure demonstrates a match trend and extrapolation to the EUR.

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Practical Decline Analysis Key Points
All production can be characterized as having an initial transient flow period followed by a boundary-
dominated flow period. During the transient period, the reservoir pressure at the flow boundary
remains constant at the initial reservoir pressure and the flow boundary moves outward from the well
through the reservoir. This portion of a well’s flow is characterized by very high decline rates. When
the flow boundary reaches an actual reservoir boundary, or meets with a flow boundary of another
well, the reservoir pressure begins to decline and the well enters the boundary-dominated flow
period. It is in this period that traditional decline methods (i.e. Arps) can be used.

The transient flow period can last for time periods from several minutes to several years, depending
upon permeability and the areal extent of the reservoir. For most conventional production, the
transient flow period ends after a few days. Tighter reservoirs that have permeability in the 0.5 to 1.0
mD range can have transient periods that last several months. Reservoirs that have even lower
permeabilities that require extensive fracture networks can have transient periods that could last for
several years.

Once a well has achieved boundary-dominated flow, another important consideration is the sandface
flowing pressure. For the period of production included in the decline analysis, the sandface flowing
pressure must be relatively constant before a reliable set of decline parameters can be
extracted. Factors that affect sandface flowing pressure are rate controlled wells, changing wellhead
backpressure, changing wellbore configurations, and liquid loading.

Decline Theory
The theory of all decline curve analysis begins with the concept of the nominal (instantaneous) decline
rate (a), which is defined as the fractional change in rate per unit time:

Another way of representing the decline rate is based on rate (q) and the decline exponent constant b.

When production is plotted as flow rate vs. time, the nominal decline rate is equal to the slope at a
point in time divided by the rate at that point.

11
 The behaviour of the production data can be characterized based on the way in which the nominal
decline rate varies with rate, based on the value of the decline exponent constant b.

 Exponential — b = 0

 Hyperbolic — b is a value other than 0 or 1

 Harmonic — b = 1

Exponential
For the exponential case, b = zero. The decline rate can be shown as:

Where k is a constant equal to a / qb at initial conditions:

As the decline rate remains constant, the integration of the equation for decline rate results in:

12
 Therefore, a plot of flow rate vs. time, with rate set to a logarithmic axis, will result in a straight line.

The cumulative production is defined as:

Therefore, a plot of flow rate vs. cumulative production will result in a straight line.

Hyperbolic
For the hyperbolic case, b is equal to any number between zero and one. The decline rate can be
shown as:

13
 Where k is a constant equal to a / qb at initial conditions:

As the decline rate is not constant, the substitution and integration of the equation for decline rate results
in:

Substituting

The cumulative production is defined as:

14
 Substituting

It is noted that neither a plot of flow rate vs. time or flow rate vs. cumulative production will result in a
linear relation (regardless of whether rate is set to a Cartesian or logarithmic axis).

Harmonic
The harmonic case is a special case of the above hyperbolic case, where b is equal to one. The decline
rate can be shown as:

Where k is a constant equal to a / qb at initial conditions:

15
 As the decline rate is not constant, the substitution and integration of the equation for decline rate results
in:

Substituting

The cumulative production is defined as:

16
 Substituting

It is noted that a plot of flow rate vs. time will not result in a linear relation (regardless of whether rate is
set to a Cartesian or logarithmic axis). A plot of flow rate vs. cumulative production, with rate set to a
logarithmic axis, will result in a straight line.

Analogy:
The analogy method for estimating reserves directly compares a newly discovered or poorly defined
reservoir to a known reservoir thought to have similar geological or petrophysical properties (depth,
lithology, porosity, and so on). While analogy is the least accurate of the methods presented, it is often
used early in the life of a reservoir to establish an order-of-magnitude recovery estimate. As the field
matures and data become available to make volumetric OOIP or OGIP estimates, analogy is often used
to establish a range of recovery factors to apply to the in-place volumes. Evaluating recovery in this
fashion is particularly useful when some performance history is available but a decline rate has yet to
be established. Analogy should always be used in conjunction with other techniques to ensure that the
results of the more computationally intensive methods make sense within the geological framework.

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Summery:
In the early stages of development, reserves estimates are restricted to the analogy and volumetric
calculations. The analogy method is applied by comparing factors for the analogous and current fields or
wells. A close-to-abandonment analogous field is taken as an approximate to the current field. This method
is most useful when running the economics on the current field; which is supposed to be an exploratory
field. The volumetric method, on the other hand, entails determining the areal extent of the reservoir, the
rock pore volume, and the fluid content within the pore volume. This provides an estimate of the amount of
hydrocarbons-in-place. The ultimate recovery, then, can be estimated by using an appropriate recovery
factor. Each of the factors used in the calculation above have inherent uncertainties that, when combined,
cause significant uncertainties in the reserves estimate. As production and pressure data from a field
become available, decline analysis and material balance calculations, become the predominant methods of
calculating reserves. These methods greatly reduce the uncertainty in reserves estimates; however, during
early depletion, caution should be exercised in using them. Decline curve relationships are empirical, and
rely on uniform, lengthy production periods. It is more suited to oil wells, which are usually produced
against fixed bottom-hole pressures. In gas wells, however, wellhead back-pressures usually fluctuate,
causing varying production trends and therefore, not as reliable. The most common decline curve
relationship is the constant percentage decline (exponential). With more and more low productivity wells
coming on stream, there is currently a swing toward decline rates proportional to production rates
(hyperbolic and harmonic). Although some wells exhibit these trends, hyperbolic or harmonic decline
extrapolations should only be used for these specific cases. Overexuberance in the use of hyperbolic or
harmonic relationships can result in excessive reserves estimates. Material balance calculation is an
excellent tool for estimating gas reserves. If a reservoir comprises a closed system and contains single-phase
gas, the pressure in the reservoir will decline proportionately to the amount of gas produced. Unfortunately,
sometimes bottom water drive in gas reservoirs contributes to the depletion mechanism, altering the
performance of the non-ideal gas law in the reservoir. Under these conditions, optimistic reserves estimates
can result.

18
References:

- American Association of Petroleum Geoscientists.

- Petrowiki
- Stanford.edu
- Fekete.edu

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