comment

Carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow

amidst slowly emerging climate policies
A failure to recognize the factors behind continued emissions growth could limit the world’s ability to shift to a
pathway consistent with 1.5 °C or 2 °C of global warming. Continued support for low-carbon technologies needs to
be combined with policies directed at phasing out the use of fossil fuels.

G. P. Peters, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, P. Friedlingstein, R. B. Jackson, J. I. Korsbakken, C. Le Quéré and

A. Peregon

G
lobal fossil CO2 emissions grew a
at 0.9% per year in the 1990s and
Annual fossil CO2 emissions and 2019 projections
accelerated to 3.0% per year in the 16 Projected GtCO2 in 2019
Projected global emission growth: +0.6% (−0.2% to 1.5%)
2000s, but have returned to a slower growth All others 15.1
0.5% (–0.8% to +1.8%)
rate of 0.9% per year since 2010, with a more
pronounced slowdown from 2014 to 2016.
Despite modest declines in emissions in 12

the United States and the European Union China 10.3

Emissions (GtCO2)

2.6% (+0.7% to +4.4%)

(EU) over the past decade, the growth
in emissions in China, India and most 8
developing countries has dominated global
emission trends over the past 20 years. The USA 5.3
Global Carbon Budget projection1 suggests 1.7% (−3.7% to +0.3%)
that global fossil CO2 emissions will grow 4 EU28 3.4
1.7% (–3.4% to +0.1%)
by 0.6% (range –0.2% to 1.5%) in 2019,
India 2.7
with emissions projected to decline in the 1.8% (+0.7% to +3.7%)
United States and the EU28, but projected to
increase in China, India and the rest of the 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019
world (Fig. 1a). projected
Although a focus on countries and
regions is important, a focus on type of b
fossil fuels and key emitting sectors is Annual fossil CO2 emissions and 2019 projections
particularly relevant for monitoring changes 16
Coal 14.5
and implementing adequate mitigation 0.9%
policies. Globally, over the past decade GtCO2 in 2019
(2009–2018), 42% of fossil CO2 emissions Oil 12.5
12
were from coal, 34% from oil, 19% from 0.9%

natural gas, and the remaining 5% from

Emissions (GtCO2)

cement and other smaller sources (Fig. 1b).

In 2019, CO2 emissions from coal are 8 Gas 7.7
projected to decline by 0.9%, with 2.6%
substantial drops in emissions from coal
use in the United States (–10%) and the
EU28 (–10%), and weak growth in China 4
and India due to economic and weather
anomalies. Oil is projected to grow by 0.9% Cement 1.6
3.7%
in 2019 and natural gas by 2.6%, both in line 0
with growth over the past 10 years. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019
At the most aggregated level, over the projected
past decade, 45% of fossil CO2 emissions
come from the energy sector, dominated by Fig. 1 | Global fossil CO2 emissions showing projections for 2019. Projections are from ref. 1. a, Emissions
electricity and heat production. Industry and projections for regions. b, Emissions and projections for fossil fuels and cement. The projections
sectors, such as metals production, for China, the United States, EU28 and India in 2019 are based on monthly data available at the time
chemicals and manufacturing, cover 23% of of submission; all others are based on economic data. The projections are done separately for coal, oil,
global emissions. Land transport combined gas and cement in each region. The Indian projection is based on the Indian financial year, April 2019 to
with national shipping and aviation March 2020. Both China and India exhibit higher uncertainty than usual because of unusual economic
contributes 19% of global emissions, while (China and India) and monsoon (India) events. Error bars indicate ±1σ.

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comment

international shipping and aviation add a

CO2 emissions from coal by sector
another 3.5%. The remaining 10% is from 10
Electricity
buildings, agriculture, fishing and other and heat
sectors not elsewhere covered (for example
military). In the following, we detail key 8
changes in fossil CO2 emissions across these
sectors for the different fossil fuels: coal,
oil and gas.

Emissions (GtCO2)
6

Coal is still king, but losing power

The changes in global emissions have
primarily been driven by changes in coal 4
Industry
use, whereas growth in the use of oil and
gas has continued unabated since 1980
following the oil crises in the 1970s (Fig. 2a). 2
Many analysts have speculated that coal use
may have peaked. The decline in coal use in Other
Organisation for Economic Co-operation Other energy
0 Transport
and Development (OECD) countries is clear, 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
with a 25% drop in the past decade. Growth b
in coal use in non-OECD countries has CO2 emissions from oil by sector
7
remained strong but is heavily influenced
Transport
by China. A global peak in coal use is highly
dependent on the pathway in China, which 6
now accounts for 50% of its global use.
Although changes in the structure of China’s 5
economy may have contributed to a recent
Emissions (GtCO2)

decline in coal use2, Chinese emissions are

4
rising again, and it is too early to proclaim a
coal peak in China or globally1.
The remarkable shifts in coal use have 3
occurred in different sectors (Fig. 2a).
The largest share of global coal use is for 2
electricity and heat (66%), followed by Bunkers
industry such as metals, chemicals and Other
1 Industry
manufacturing (27%). The levelling off Electricity
in global coal use in the 1990s resulted and heat
Other energy
largely from the collapse of the Soviet 0
Union3 but was partially offset by strong c
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

growth in electricity and industry in China CO2 emissions from natural gas by sector
and India. The recent modest decline in 3.0 Electricity
and heat
global use has primarily occurred because
of continued declines in coal power in the
2.5
United States and EU, and a slowdown in
coal power growth in China, combined
with a slowdown in the growth in industrial 2.0
production in China. The declines in
Emissions (GtCO2)

electricity generation probably represent

a more systematic structural change, with 1.5 Other
electricity generation from coal being Industry
replaced by non-fossil energy sources or
with natural gas. The recent decline in coal 1.0

use by industry may represent the effects of

Other energy
economic headwinds in China, as there are
0.5
very few technologies to guarantee declines
in the hard-to-mitigate industrial sectors4. Transport

0
Oil shows resilient growth 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Global oil use has grown almost unimpeded
for several decades (Fig. 2b), with the main
disruptions occurring during the oil crises3 Fig. 2 | Carbon dioxide emissions from different fossil fuels by sector. a, Coal; b, oil; c, natural gas.
in 1973 and 1979. The oil crises primarily ‘Bunkers’ indicates emissions from bunker fuels used in international aviation and shipping. ‘Transport’
hit oil use in OECD countries, but more so indicates land transport along with domestic aviation and shipping. Source: IEA15, based on detailed data
in sectors where oil was used inefficiently on energy demand and IPCC Guidelines.

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 comment

(electricity and industry), with limited Although natural gas can help to begin Natural gas may displace some coal in power
effects in transport (Fig. 2b). Global oil use decarbonization in electricity generation, it generation, but it offers at best a short-term
is dominated by road transport, representing still emits CO2, and its use without carbon solution, as once coal is displaced the CO2
50% of emissions from oil use and growing capture and storage (CCS) needs to be emissions continue, albeit at a lower rate.
at 1.9% per year (104 MtCO2 per year) in phased out not long after it displaces coal The rapid growth in electric vehicles has
the past decade. Oil use in OECD countries use. In some instances, natural gas could been insufficient to alter global oil use, as
declined after the global financial crisis lead to worse outcomes for the climate than the growth in transport demand far outpaces
in 2009 but has since begun to rise again, coal, depending on methane leakage rates5. the deployment of electric vehicles. Very
making its current use similar to the levels Natural gas is also an attractive alternative little attention has been paid to the difficult-
in 2009. Oil use in non-OECD countries in industrial, commercial and residential to-mitigate sectors4, such as industry,
continues to grow strongly, despite a applications, but without CCS, the aviation and shipping, and a complete
slowdown in the growth rate in the past few emissions still contribute significantly to decarbonization of electricity generation.
years. National and international aviation global warming. The failure to mitigate global emissions,
represents around 8% of the emissions Although natural gas may be necessary despite positive progress on so many
from oil use and has been growing at to aid a transition from coal to non-fossil aspects of climate policy, suggests that
around 3% per year (25 MtCO2 per year) energy in some national circumstances, the full bag of policy options is not being
for the past decade. Other sectors (industry, expanded use of natural gas without CCS effectively deployed. Most policies tend to
power, other) are flat at the global level, could limit the ability to meet ambitious focus on supporting low-carbon alternatives,
with declines in OECD countries offset by climate targets. The rapidly growing global such as solar, wind, or electric vehicles, but
increases in non-OECD countries. market in liquefied natural gas will support these technologies often add to existing
Although aviation is receiving increased the expansion and reach of natural gas in demand and therefore do not displace
public attention, the continued growth in the coming decades, while plans to develop fossil fuel use to any great extent13. Public
emissions from road transport is far more CCS that could limit the climate impacts policies need to place far more importance
significant in aggregate terms and is the of natural gas are still lagging at the on directly cutting back the use of fossil
main driver of CO2 emissions from oil small-scale demonstration stage. fuels or removing their emissions through
globally. The deployment of electric vehicles CCS, particularly the phasing out of coal
is promising, but demand for transport Shift focus to fossil fuels power plants14 and conventional vehicles,
services is growing more rapidly. In many The continued growth in global fossil CO2 well before they reach their productive
markets, electric vehicles are adding to emissions is taking place despite growing end-of-life. ❐
demand and not replacing existing vehicles, public and policy attention, five cycles of
therefore having minimal effect on oil use. IPCC Assessment Reports and almost 30 G. P. Peters   1*, R. M. Andrew   1,
If electrical grids are not decarbonized fast years of international climate negotiations. J. G. Canadell   2, P. Friedlingstein   3,4,
enough, then the addition of electric vehicles Although some climate policies have fallen R. B. Jackson   5,6, J. I. Korsbakken   1,
may partly shift emissions from transport into place, leading to rapid progress in the C. Le Quéré   7 and A. Peregon8,9
to the energy sector. Oil is generally deployment of clean energy technologies, 1
CICERO Center for International Climate Research,
an inefficient energy source outside of few policies are in place to phase out fossil Oslo, Norway. 2Global Carbon Project, CSIRO
transport, suggesting that there are many fuel technologies in parallel, and CO2 Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, Australian
opportunities to reduce oil use in the power emissions continue to grow globally. Even Capital Territory, Australia. 3College of Engineering,
sector and industry. following the apparent policy breakthrough Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of
leading to the Paris Agreement in 2015, it is Exeter, Exeter, UK. 4Laboratoire de Météorologie
Natural gas is only a temporary fix likely that global fossil CO2 emissions will Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-
Carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas have grown by more than 4% through to the ENS-UPMC-X, Département de Géosciences, Ecole
use have been growing steadily and almost end of 2019. Current national policies still Normale Supérieure, Paris, France. 5Department
uninterrupted for over half a century, and put the world on a pathway of increasing of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the
they are currently the fastest-growing source greenhouse gas emissions through to 20306. Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA,
of fossil fuel emissions (Fig. 2c). Natural gas The continued growth in fossil fuel use USA. 6Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford
has contributed to the largest increase in and associated CO2 emissions is happening University, Stanford, CA, USA. 7Tyndall Centre
global fossil CO2 emissions in recent times, despite considerable progress in low- for Climate Change Research, University of East
accounting for around 35% of the growth carbon technologies7 and progress in some Anglia, Norwich, UK. 8Laboratoire des Sciences du
in the past decade and over 50% in the past countries in reducing energy use8. Growth Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon
few years. Its use is growing strongly in in energy use and emissions is dominated by Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette,
most countries, with the 44% of gas use in developing countries, as they strive to close Cedex, France. 9Institute of Soil Science and
electricity and heat growing the most rapidly the large disparity between their per capita Agrochemistry, Siberian Branch of the Russian
globally. OECD countries generally have energy and that in developed countries9. Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia.
more diverse usage of gas, with substantial This suggests that current policies are not *e-mail: glen.peters@cicero.oslo.no
use in industry, energy and buildings. enough to affect global emissions, or are
Non-OECD gas use is more concentrated slow to have a detectable effect, or simply Published: xx xx xxxx
in the electricity sector. fail to directly address the root cause of the https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0659-6
Natural gas has been portrayed as a problem: phasing out CO2 emissions from
bridge fuel from coal power to non-fossil the use of fossil fuels10. The rapid growth in References
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Acknowledgements of the Australian National Environmental Science
org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab57b3 (in the press).
We thank R. Quadrelli and F. Mattion from the Program — Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub.
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