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    ECV5602 - Statistical Methods For Transportation

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    Ilyas H. Ali
    1) The study examined annual vehicle kilometer travel (VKT) among Malaysia motor vehicle users to determine the impact of demographic factors. 2) Descriptive statistics showed the average annual VKT was 40,404 km, with motorcars having higher VKT than motorcycles. 3) Hypothesis testing found the average annual VKT to be more than 30,000 km and that the mean VKT was similar between motorcars and motorcycles. 4) Multiple linear regression identified age and income as factors but they only explained 19.03% of the variation in annual VKT.

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    ECV5602 - Statistical Methods For Transportation

    Uploaded by

    Ilyas H. Ali
    51 views16 pages
    1) The study examined annual vehicle kilometer travel (VKT) among Malaysia motor vehicle users to determine the impact of demographic factors. 2) Descriptive statistics showed the average annual VKT was 40,404 km, with motorcars having higher VKT than motorcycles. 3) Hypothesis testing found the average annual VKT to be more than 30,000 km and that the mean VKT was similar between motorcars and motorcycles. 4) Multiple linear regression identified age and income as factors but they only explained 19.03% of the variation in annual VKT.

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    ECV5602-GS49607.pdf

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    1) The study examined annual vehicle kilometer travel (VKT) among Malaysia motor vehicle users to determine the impact of demographic factors. 2) Descriptive statistics showed the average annual VKT was 40,404 km, with motorcars having higher VKT than motorcycles. 3) Hypothesis testing found the average annual VKT to be more than 30,000 km and that the mean VKT was similar between motorcars and motorcycles. 4) Multiple linear regression identified age and income as factors but they only explained 19.03% of the variation in annual VKT.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    51 views16 pages

    ECV5602 - Statistical Methods For Transportation

    Uploaded by

    Ilyas H. Ali
    1) The study examined annual vehicle kilometer travel (VKT) among Malaysia motor vehicle users to determine the impact of demographic factors. 2) Descriptive statistics showed the average annual VKT was 40,404 km, with motorcars having higher VKT than motorcycles. 3) Hypothesis testing found the average annual VKT to be more than 30,000 km and that the mean VKT was similar between motorcars and motorcycles. 4) Multiple linear regression identified age and income as factors but they only explained 19.03% of the variation in annual VKT.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 16

    ECV5602 -

    STATISTICAL METHODS FOR


    TRANSPORTATION

    The Study of Vehicle Kilometer Travel Among


    Malaysia Motor Vehicle Users

    Lecturer : Assoc. Prof. Dr. Law Teik Hua

    NAME MATRIC NO.


    SYAHIDA BINTI OMAR GS49607
    Objective
    To determine annual vehicle kilometer
    travel (VKT) among Malaysia motor
    vehicle users (motorcar and motorcycle).

    To compare annual VKT between


    different groups of motor vehicle users
    (Age, household income, gender and etc

    To investigate the impact of demographic


    factors (income, age, education level)
    and family characteristics (household
    size, number of kids, and etc.) on annual
    VKT.
    METHODOLOGY

    STEP 2 : STEP 3 :
    STEP 1 :
    Conducting Conducting
    Drafting a
    the first the second
    questionnaire
    survey survey

    STEP 5 : STEP 4 :
    Conclusion Analysis
    DATA COLLECTION
    Odometer Reading Annual Household Education
    No. Before After Difference VKT Gender Vehicle Age income Level
    1 80,375 83,236 2,861 74,590 F Motorcar 37 9000 Degree
    2 332,832 337,924 5,092 132,756 F Motorcar 33 5000 Degree
    3 101,851 103,340 1,489 38,820 M Motorcar 30 4000 Degree
    4 60,734 62,776 2,042 53,238 F Motorcar 34 10000 Degree
    5 111,356 112,229 873 22,760 M Motorcar 38 9000 Degree
    6 40,741 42,176 1,435 37,413 F Motorcar 36 7000 Degree
    7 55,709 57,307 1,598 41,662 M Motorcar 30 4000 Degree
    8 40,120 42,430 2,310 60,225 F Motorcar 33 3000 Degree
    9 62,027 63,529 1,502 39,159 M Motorcar 38 4500 Degree
    10 143,315 145,150 1,835 47,841 M Motorcar 26 5500 Degree
    11 39,859 41,289 1,430 37,282 M Motorcar 25 5000 Degree
    12 6,601 10,200 3,599 93,831 M Motorcycle 28 4000 Diploma
    13 133,239 133,779 540 14,079 M Motorcycle 27 2000 Diploma
    14 22,455 22,664 209 5,449 M Motorcycle 36 1700 Diploma
    15 49,712 50,317 605 15,773 M Motorcycle 34 1650 Diploma
    16 64,993 66,460 1,467 38,247 M Motorcycle 34 2200 Degree
    17 35,165 36,535 1,370 35,718 M Motorcycle 32 5000 Degree
    18 40,389 41,119 730 19,032 F Motorcycle 27 1800 Diploma
    19 58,670 59,658 988 25,759 F Motorcycle 25 2300 Diploma
    20 76,440 77,460 1,020 26,593 F Motorcycle 29 2500 Diploma
    Distribution of
    Analysis VKT
    Hypothesis
    tests
    Multiple linear
    regression
    Distribution of VKT - Overall

    Descriptive data annual for overall VKT


    Mean 40,404.20
    Standard Error 5,129.53
    Median 37,829.64
    Mode #N/A
    Standard Deviation 22,939.97
    Sample Variance 526,242,175.43
    Kurtosis 0.38
    Skewness 0.83
    Range 88,382.14
    Minimum 5,448.93
    Maximum 93,831.07
    Sum 808,083.93
    Count 20.00
    Distribution of VKT - Motorcar

    Descriptive data annual VKT (Motorcar)


    Mean 48,509.45
    Standard Error 5,232.16
    Median 41,662.14
    Mode #N/A
    Standard Deviation 17,353.10
    Sample Variance 301,130,135.90
    Kurtosis -0.06
    Skewness 0.72
    Range 57,852.50
    Minimum 22,760.36
    Maximum 80,612.86
    Sum 533,603.93
    Count 11.00
    Distribution of VKT - Motorcycle

    Descriptive data annual VKT (Motorcycle)


    Mean 30,497.78
    Standard Error 8,645.34
    Median 25,758.57
    Mode #N/A
    Standard Deviation 25,936.03
    Sample Variance 672,677,457.14
    Kurtosis 5.27
    Skewness 2.12
    Range 88,382.14
    Minimum 5,448.93
    Maximum 93,831.07
    Sum 274,480.00
    Count 9.00
    Conclusion

    From the plotted Histogram, shows:

    • Data not in a uniform distribution might


    because of small sample.
    Hypothesis tests 1
    Test hypotheses for the difference between one populations mean, with
    known variances

    • H0 : The average of annual VKT among Malaysian drivers is 30,000 km


    (source: Annual VKT from MIROS journal is 30,000 km)

    • H0 : µ = 30,000

    • H1 : The average of annual VKT among Malaysians Driver is less than


    30,000
    • H1 : µ ˃ 30,000

    Whereas:

    n = 20 µ = 40,404.20 σ = 22,939.97
    Hypothesis tests 1 (Cont.)
    Determine the critical value based on significance value, α = 0.05
    Zα = Z0.05 = 1.645

    Critical region : Z ˃ z 0.005


    𝑥;𝜇0 40,404.20;30000
    Use Test Statistics : Z𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡 = 𝑠 = = 2.0283
    𝑛
    22,939.97 20

    Conclusion : Reject H0.

    Conclude that there is evidence that the average annual VKT of


    Malaysia is more than 30,000.
    Hypothesis tests 2

    Test hypotheses for the difference between two populations mean, with
    known variances
    • H0 : The mean of the VKT for motorcars and VKT for motorcycles is
    similar
    H0 : μ1 – μ2 = 0

    • H1: The mean of the VKT for motorcars and VKT for motorcycles is
    different
    H1 : μ1 – μ2 ≠ 0

    Significance level, α = 0.05


    μmotorcars = 48509.45, σmotorcars = 17353.10
    μmotorcycles = 30,497.78, σmotorcycles = 25,936.03
    Hypothesis tests 2 (cont.)
    𝑥1 ;𝑥2 48509.45;30497.78
    Test Statistic : t𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡 = = 2 2
    = 1.791
    2 17353.10 25758.57
    𝑠2
    1 : 𝑠2 :
    11 9
    𝑛1 𝑛2

    – Critical Region :
    – t < t0.025, 10 = -2.228
    – t < t0.025, 8 = 2.306

    Conclusion: Fail to reject H0.


    There is significant evidence that the mean of the VKT for
    motorcars and motorcycles is similar at significance level α= 0.05
    Multiple linear regression

    Regression Statistics ANOVA


    Multiple R 0.4362
    df SS MS F Significance F
    R Square 0.1903
    Adjusted R Square 0.0950
    Regression 2.00 1,902,742,921.80 951,371,460.90 2.00 0.1662
    Standard Error 21,822.6251 Residual 17.00 8,095,858,411.33 476,226,965.37
    Observations 20.0000 Total 19.00 9,998,601,333.13
    Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
    Intercept 47,779.97 37,583.13 1.27 0.22 -31,513.50 127,073.44 -31,513.50 127,073.44
    Age -836.89 1,275.31 -0.66 0.52 -3,527.55 1,853.77 -3,527.55 1,853.77
    income 4.28 2.15 1.99 0.06 -0.26 8.82 -0.26 8.82

    Y = 47779.97 – 836.89(x1) + 4.28(x2)


    β0 = When x1 and x2 are zero, the estimated values of Annual VKT is 47779.97

    β1 = When x2 are held constant, the estimated values of Annual VKT is decrease by 836.89 for
    every 1 unit increase in age.

    β2 = When x1 are held constant, the estimated values of Annual VKT is increase by 4.28 for
    every 1 unit increase in income level.
    Conclusion
    Coefficient of determination : Adjusted R Square = 0.1903
    Interpretation : Only 19.03% of variation in the Annual VKT can be explained by the age
    and income level.
    Determine the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis
    H0 : Neither of the independent variables is related to the dependent variable
    H1 : At least one the independent variable is related to the dependent variable
    Make a decision by comparing the p-value and significance level, α
    Since p-value, 0.1662 is larger than α=0.05, Fail to reject H0

    Conclusion :
    Thus, there is no significant evidence that at least one of the independent variables (age
    and income level) is related to the independent variable (annual VKT of vehicle users) at
    α=0.05

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