Haverly Systems Inc:: Valuing Opportunity Crudes Accurately and Efficiently

Haverly Systems Inc:
Valuing opportunity
crudes accurately and
efficiently
Angela Haverly
COQA
October 25th, 2018
Haverly Systems Inc.
Provider of refining & petrochemical

modeling solutions since 1962
Application Categories
Planning Crude Assay Scheduling

Systems Management Optimization
Systems Systems
Haverly Around the World
United
Kingdom
Houston,
Texas
Denville,
Ventura, New Jersey
California
Beirut,
Lebanon
Singapore
Haverly Office
Agents
South Africa Pakistan India Bahrain China Korea
Mexico
Haverly Integrated Products
H/CAMS G5 (GRTMPS) H/Sched

Crude Assay Planning & Optimization Interactive Refinery
Management Scheduling
Integration H/Gal-XE
Crude Assay Tools Gasoline production
Libraries blending & scheduling
Many applications linking
Chevron, Haverly... Haverly products and to
other software
H/COMET Phone Apps NetBlend

Web-based crude Property Calculator Web-based gasoline
oil evaluation tool H/COMET App & product blending
for refiners, optimization
traders, producers
LP Models – Oil Industry
• Most refineries typically uses an LP model for
planning decisions
• Engineering companies use LP models for refinery
upgrade studies etc
• LP Models have been used since the 1960’s
• Computer hardware improvements have
significantly improved solve times over the years
• An LP solver will utilize as much of the CPU as it can
LP Models – Oil Industry
• Early models very small …maybe 200-300 rows
(equations) and 300-400 variables
• Models today can be >30,000 rows, 100,000 variables
• Haverly experienced a 3 day LP run in the early days
• HCOMET cloud server model solves in 0.2 of a second
• 370 million % increase in speed !!
• An LP will chase 1 cent extra in profit if it can
Refinery Planning
Crude Needs
and Commitments Business
Objectives
Utility Costs and
Consumptions
Product
Prices
Stream / Calendar
Day Rates Optimal Plan
Product
Operating Demands
Guidelines
Raw Material
Inventory
Costs
Positioning
Crude data in various processes
Key calculations based on Crude data :

- Catalyst performances
- Process Units capacities
- Reactor models/Process Simulators calibration
- Final Products blending (Jet..)
- …
Assay quality
 Check list : sampling, laboratory, calibration
 Have a predefined analysis scheme
 Use software to check correct and ‘Smooth’ assays
- mass balance
- ASTM, IP .. correlations
- blending indexes
- graphical check
- warnings
Crude Assay
- references Management
System
 Most errors in reported H/CAMS
assays are typos

Flash Assay update
Crude sample full analysis vs. software assay update
• Full assay lab analysis • Flash Assay tool with Haverly software
– Cargo data is enough
– Needs sampling – Use base assay (as previous year one)
– Analysis requires several weeks distributions
– Costs 15,000 – 40,000 $ / assay – Commonly used to update assays with new :
– Requires full rework of lab data in
crude manager softwares • Yield curve (SimDis)
– Not necessary if crude doesn’t • Whole crude measurements
change a lot through time • GC data
Flash Assay update – Example 1
 Update assays using cargo data (Flash assay tool)
• Cusiana crude has got 8 API lighter in 15 years
– due to mixing of Cupiagua crude (45 API) and gas injection
API Sulfur
1995 36.25 .25
1998 39.39 .17
1999 41.0 .17
2004 42.5 .12
2011 44.1 .11
API Sulfur
SimDist vs. TBP (Flash assay) 1995 36.25 .25
– if the 1995 assay is used in a planning LP Cusiana is 1998 39.39 .17

being under valued by $1.57/bbl c.f. the more current 1999 41.0 .17
2011 quality
2004 42.5 .12
– Updating the 1995 assay with the Flash Assay tool to a
2011 “vintage” compares very closely the actual full 2011 44.1 .11
TBP assay. Only $0.06/bbl difference
LP analysis using G5 model Mbbls Obj Fn (M$) Value

Base Case 1995 full assay (TBP) 823 3089
Case 1 2011 full assay (TBP) 823 4381 +$1.57/bbl
1995 assay - Flash update

Case 2 823 4332 +$1.51/bbl
with 2011 HTSD data
Grane Crude Flash assay update
– Base assay 2017 Grane 28.41 API
– Flash Assay 2018 Grane Cargo 27.80 API
– May 2018 NWE product economics
– Avg . Complex Coking Refinery config
H/COMET:
Crude Oil Management Evaluation Tool
H/COMET: what can you do?
• Web based system on a Cloud server
• Quickly view assay reports and graphs
• Export to Excel, PDF
• Advanced search routines for finding crudes
• Compare quality data of crudes side-by-side
• Re-cut single or blends of crudes to any desired
set of cut point using H/CAMS
H/COMET: what can you do?
• Optimize crude blend recipes to target specs
• LP models simulate the refining process, calculating
the crude value (profit)
• Most refineries in the world pre-configured (600+).
• Simple LP model with base system
• Advanced Jacobs LP models upgrade available
H/COMET: who is currently using?
• Major oil corporations
• Oil trading companies
• Banks
• Consulting companies
• Insurance companies
• Crude oil producers
1000’s of users
H/COMET – Crude Selection
Navigation Panel for access

to other modules
19
H/COMET – Netback setup
Crude Oil
Management
Evaluation Tool
H/COMET
H/COMET – Netback setup
Crude Oil
Management
Evaluation Tool
H/COMET
H/COMET – Netback results
More output reports
Netback report shows

results by crudes side
by side for one
refinery or refineries
side by side for each
crude
Reports shows crude

value and product
vol% make for selected
region
Can download directly

to excel
Opportunity Crude X valued approx. “Brent minus $4.60 /bbl”

22
H/COMET – Netback results
• Crude X is $2.00/bbl
more valuable at Ref 2 ,
where more Gasoline
and Diesel can be made
• Ref 2 has a much bigger

Vacuum Unit and larger
Hydrocracker than Ref 1
23
H/COMET – Crude Substitution model
24
H/COMET – Crude Substitution Margin report
25
H/COMET – Price forecasting
Substitution model
Crude Oil
Management
Evaluation Tool
H/COMET
Thank You
Angela Haverly
Haverly Systems, Inc.

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Haverly Systems Inc:

Provider of refining & petrochemical

Planning Crude Assay Scheduling

H/CAMS G5 (GRTMPS) H/Sched

H/COMET Phone Apps NetBlend

Key calculations based on Crude data :

assays are typos

SimDist vs. TBP (Flash assay) 1995 36.25 .25

– if the 1995 assay is used in a planning LP Cusiana is 1998 39.39 .17

LP analysis using G5 model Mbbls Obj Fn (M$) Value

Case 1 2011 full assay (TBP) 823 4381 +$1.57/bbl

1995 assay - Flash update

Navigation Panel for access

Netback report shows

Reports shows crude

Can download directly

Opportunity Crude X valued approx. “Brent minus $4.60 /bbl”

• Ref 2 has a much bigger

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