Here are the hypotheses and test statistic for this problem:
- Ho: μnew ≤ μold
- Ha: μnew > μold
- Confidence level: 95%
- Test metric: Z-statistic
- Tail: One-tailed test
- Sample size: Not mentioned, but it is a test of population means so the test statistic would be a Z-statistic.
To calculate the test statistic, it would be:
Z = (Sample mean - Population mean) / (Standard deviation/√Sample size)
= (147 - 145) / (100/√n)
Since the sample size is not provided, the test statistic cannot be fully calculated. But it would
Here are the hypotheses and test statistic for this problem:
- Ho: μnew ≤ μold
- Ha: μnew > μold
- Confidence level: 95%
- Test metric: Z-statistic
- Tail: One-tailed test
- Sample size: Not mentioned, but it is a test of population means so the test statistic would be a Z-statistic.
To calculate the test statistic, it would be:
Z = (Sample mean - Population mean) / (Standard deviation/√Sample size)
= (147 - 145) / (100/√n)
Since the sample size is not provided, the test statistic cannot be fully calculated. But it would
Here are the hypotheses and test statistic for this problem:
- Ho: μnew ≤ μold
- Ha: μnew > μold
- Confidence level: 95%
- Test metric: Z-statistic
- Tail: One-tailed test
- Sample size: Not mentioned, but it is a test of population means so the test statistic would be a Z-statistic.
To calculate the test statistic, it would be:
Z = (Sample mean - Population mean) / (Standard deviation/√Sample size)
= (147 - 145) / (100/√n)
Since the sample size is not provided, the test statistic cannot be fully calculated. But it would
Here are the hypotheses and test statistic for this problem:
- Ho: μnew ≤ μold
- Ha: μnew > μold
- Confidence level: 95%
- Test metric: Z-statistic
- Tail: One-tailed test
- Sample size: Not mentioned, but it is a test of population means so the test statistic would be a Z-statistic.
To calculate the test statistic, it would be:
Z = (Sample mean - Population mean) / (Standard deviation/√Sample size)
= (147 - 145) / (100/√n)
Since the sample size is not provided, the test statistic cannot be fully calculated. But it would
Normal distribution Skewness & Kurtosis Both these metrics can be used check deviation of a given distribution from normality of distribution
>3 =3
<3
Skewness indicates how the overall shape of a distribution Kurtosis indicates how the tails of a distribution is shaped deviates from normal distribution/ symmetric >3, thinner tail >0, right skewed <3, thicker tail <0, left skewed central limit theorem Central limit Theorem • Population: {18,20,21,23,26,27,30,35,41,45} • Age of 10 people
What is the average 28.6 yrs.
Central limit Theorem Actual distribution Sampling distribution • Population: Age of 10 people • {18,20,21,23,26,27,30,35,41,45}
frequency • {20,35,45}33.33 N=7 • {35,41,45}40.33 • | N=3 • | • | 28.6 Number of trials Average of the samples N>30 Central Limit Theorem • The mean of the sampling distribution of means is equal to the mean of the population from which the samples were drawn. • The variance of the sampling distribution of means is equal to the variance of the population from which the samples were drawn divided by the size of the samples. • If the original population is distributed normal (i.e. it is bell shaped), the sampling distribution of means will also be normal. If the original population is not normally distributed, the sampling distribution of means will increasingly approximate a normal distribution as sample size increases (i.e. when increasingly large samples are drawn). Actual distribution Sampling distribution How is this useful • In reality estimating population statistics is hard large size
• what is the average life expectancy in the world today
• What is the average weight of a 6month old toddler?
• Get the sample distribution (N30)
• Evaluate the population mean and variance based on sampling distribution Hypothesis testing Hypothesis Testing • How do we answer questions such as
• Exercising for 2Hrs a day helps reduce weight by 5 Kgs
• A new drug in the market helps reduce the side effects of Diabetes by 50%
• Starting to office early by 15 min will help reach faster by 10 minutes
• Start at 9:00 reach at 10:00 (1 Hr) • Start at 8:45. reach by 9:35 (50 Min) Hypothesis Testing • The effect could be due random chance or due to the assumed (hypothesized) cause.
• The effect may not be same for all the members of the sample
• Through hyp. Testing we are trying to figure out whether the
observed trend in data is due to random chance or not • The outcome of the of the test to figure out if the data is statiscally significant to reject /not reject the theory Hypothesis Testing • Hypothesis testing: statiscal way of testing a theory/speculation • Structured • Null hypothesis (Not guilty) [Not guilty till proved] • Alternate hypothesis (guilty) • Based on evidence • Use observed data (collect statements from witnesses, evidences) • Pre defined procedure • Test of means • Test of variance • Test of proportion • Any evidence is not evidence statically significance • Significance level • P value • Critical values • Predefined outcomes • Reject null hypothesis (prove guilty) • Fail to reject null hypothesis (Failed to prove guilty due to lack of evidence) Hypothesis testing • Hypothesis A claim that we want tested • Two components in SHT Null Hyp (Ho) and Alternate/Research Hyp(Ha) • Ho is the current belief/value/ status quo/established fact • Ha is the new proposal/claim opposite to Ho/ challenge Ho • Ho is true till test rejects it (innocent till proven guilty) • Only reject or fail to reject Ho (we do not accept the null hypothesis) • Ho and Ha are mathematical opposites H H o a
a=b ab ab a>b ab a<b Hypothesis testing: example-1 • Premise: the average IQ of students admitted to a city college ‘X’ is at best 120. The new administration in the college thinks that its current students are much smarter Hypothesis testing: example-1 • Premise: the average IQ of students admitted to a city college ‘X’ is at best 120. The new administration in the college thinks that its current students are much smarter
• Ho (current belief/value/ status quo/established fact)IQ 120
• Ha (challenge Ho )IQ>120 Type I and Type II Errors Type I Error: • Rejection of null hypothesis when it should not have been rejected. • Incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis.
Type II Error: • Failure to reject the null hypothesis, when it should have been rejected. • Incorrectly not rejecting the null hypothesis. Decision/ Reality Ho True (Should not reject) Ho False (Should reject)
Reject Ho Type I Error (α) (FP) Correct Rejection (No error)
( reject when should not be rejected) (1-β) TP Fail to Reject Ho Correct Decision (No error) (1-α) Type II Error (β) (FN) (TN) ( fail to reject when it should be rejected) J\R I G Causes of Type I and Type II Errors: G • By random chance, we may select a sample which is not representative of the population. I • Sampling techniques may be flawed. • Assumptions in our null hypothesis may be flawed. 17 Relation between , and power Hypothesis test • Define the problem • Formulate the Ho and Ha • Decide on confidence level/level of significance (0.95/0.05 typical) • Collect data • Type of test, mean/variance/proportion • Test metric Z, t, chi-squared, F • Identify one-tailed/ two-tailed • For the given condition determine the critical value/p value • conclude based on calculated statistic Vs critical statistic / p value Confidence interval • Repeated sampling with replacement (same size) • For 95% confidence level, • repeat the sampling 100 times and perform the HT.
• The outcome of the HT is same at least 95 times out of 100
• C+ =1 Two tail and One tail test • Ho:a=b • Ha: ab • =0.05
• Ho:ab • Ho:ab • Ha: a>b • Ha: a<b • =0.05 • =0.05 21 Problem-1 • The school nurse thinks the average height of 7th graders has increased. The average height of a 7th grader five years ago was 145 cm with a standard deviation of 20 cm. She takes a random sample of 200 students and finds that the average height of her sample is 147 cm. Are 7th graders now taller than they were before? Conduct a X-tailed hypothesis test use a .05 significance level to evaluate the null and alternative hypotheses.
• Ho: • Ha: • Confidence level: • Test metric: • Tail: one tail/two tail? • Sample size: Problem-1 • The school nurse thinks the average height of 7th graders has increased. The average height of a 7th grader five years ago was 145 cm with a standard deviation of 20 cm. She takes a random sample of 200 students and finds that the average height of her sample is 147 cm. Are 7th graders now taller than they were before? Conduct a X-tailed hypothesis test use a .05 significance level to evaluate the null and alternative hypotheses.
• Ho: hnow h5yearsbefore z = x̅ - µ
• Ha: hnow>h5yearsbefore σ/ √n • Confidence level: 95% ( =0.05 given) Z= (147-145)/(20/200) Z=1.41412 • Test metric: Z ( population std deviation given) =1.41412 • Tail: one tail/two tail? One tailed • Sample size:200 for =0.05, Zcritical=1.645 Problem -2 • A farmer is trying out a planting technique that he hopes will increase the yield on his pea plants. The average number of pods on one of his pea plants is 145 pods with a standard deviation of 100 pods. This year, after trying his new planting technique, he takes a random sample of his plants and finds the average number of pods to be 147. He wonders whether or not this is a statistically significant increase. What are his hypotheses and the test statistic? Ho: Ha: Confidence level: Test metric: Tail: one tail/two tail? Sample size: Problem -2 • A farmer is trying out a planting technique that he hopes will increase the yield on his pea plants. The average number of pods on one of his pea plants is 145 pods with a standard deviation of 100 pods. This year, after trying his new planting technique, he takes a random sample of his plants and finds the average number of pods to be 147. He wonders whether or not this is a statistically significant increase. What are his hypotheses and the test statistic? Ho: Ha: Confidence level: Test metric: Tail: one tail/two tail? Sample size: 400 Contestants 300 Other labels ( winners /runnerup….) 100 Still operating 100 40 closed 200 60 ANOVA
