Engineering Hydrology Module Final

HYDROLOGY MODULE (HENG-M3144)
CORE MODULE
JUNE, 11,2014G.C
ENGINEERING HYDROLOGY
COURSE CODE (HEng– 3143)
COURSE SEQUENCE 3rd
WRITER: ASSEFA G/HER ( MSc.)
REVIEWERS: 1. HASSEN HUSSEN ( BSc.)
2. WOZADER WOLDIE ( BSc.)

General description
Objective (competencies)
To understand how to predict risks and reliabilities of flood control systems. To provide
students basic knowledge on Hydrologic model, catchment characteristics, hydrology of
different size of catchment, interpretation of data using statistics and probability, and
reservoirs capacity estimation.
Target group
• Students who are involved in hydraulic and water resources engineering
department.
• Students who are involved in civil engineering and architecture department.
The nature /requirement of the course
This course is basic to the students to have basic concepts on the following applications.
Now in our country, Ethiopia, there are many dams which are under construction and to be
constructed after some years for irrigation, hydropower generation and other activities
related to water works.
After completion of this course students will be able to

• Understand about Hydrographs,
• Processing of hydrological data, frequency analysis of floods.
• Flood routing
• Spillway design flood estimation.
• Estimation of reservoir capacity.
• Rainfall-runoff relationship:
• application of different models; hydrology of un-gauged catchments;
• flood routing: reservoir routing; channel routing;
• frequency analysis: rainfall, low flow and floods;
• basic concepts of stochastic hydrology;
• reservoirs: determination of reservoir capacity, reservoir sedimentation;
• Basic concepts of urban hydrology, application of IDF and DAAD curves.
Students will go to hydraulic laboratory and they will carry out an experiment on
infiltration capacity of a soil and rainfall runoff relationship.
Time required for the course
The total time required to cover the course is explained as follows. It includes more time
for home study which is going to be covered by the student.
Lecture Tutorial Practice or Laboratory Home study

Contact Hours (per week)
2 2 1 2
Learning guide /strategies for students
The students must read the theory and directly go to the examples. This module is
essentially prepared based on the newly emerged curriculum. The larger time is given for
home study. It is student based module preparation.
Table of Contents
Chapter One…….. ................................................................................................................................. 1
1. Meteorological and Hydrological Data Analysis .............................................................................. 1
1.1 General .......................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Meteorological data ....................................................................................................................... 2
3.1.1 1.2.1 Principles of Data Analysis ............................................................................................. 2
1.2.2 Areal Estimation .................................................................................................................... 5
1.3 Hydrological Data ....................................................................................................................... 6
1.3.1 Missing Data and Comparison with the Precipitation Records ................................................ 6
Chapter Two……… .............................................................................................................................. 11
2. Rainfall-Runoff Relationships ....................................................................................................... 11
2.1 Hydrological Models ................................................................................................................. 11
2.2 Deterministic Hydrological Models ............................................................................................... 11
3.1.2 2.2.1 Empirical (Black Box) Models ....................................................................................... 12
3.1.3 2.2.2 Lumped Conceptual Models ........................................................................................ 13
2.2.3 Distributed Process Description Based Models .......................................................................... 14
2.3 Stochastic Time Series Models ..................................................................................................... 15
2.4 Rational Method .......................................................................................................................... 15
2.5 Runoff Coefficient ........................................................................................................................ 16
2.6 Rainfall intensity .......................................................................................................................... 18
2.6 Time of Concentration.................................................................................................................. 18
2.7 SCS Curve Number Method .......................................................................................................... 24
2.8 Time-Area Method ....................................................................................................................... 28
2.9 Stream Flow Hydrograph .............................................................................................................. 30
2.9.2 Factors affecting flood hydrograph ............................................................................................ 34
2.9.3 Effective Rainfall........................................................................................................................ 34
2.10 Separation of Base Flow and Runoff ........................................................................................... 35
2.11 The Unit Hydrograph (UH) .......................................................................................................... 36
2.11.1 Derivation of the Unit Hydrograph from single storms ............................................................. 38
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2.11.2 Changing of the Duration of the UH ......................................................................................... 39
2.11.3 Enlargement of T by superposition: ......................................................................................... 39
2.12 Applications of Unit Hydrograph ................................................................................................ 42
2.12.1 Synthetic Unit Hydrographs ..................................................................................................... 42
2.12.2 Snyder’s method ..................................................................................................................... 43
2.3 UH from a complex storm ............................................................................................................ 46
2.4 Instantaneous unit Hydrograph (IUH) ........................................................................................... 47
2.5 Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph ................................................................................................... 48
Chapter Three….. ............................................................................................................................... 50
3. Frequency Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 50
3.1 General ........................................................................................................................................ 50
3.2 Flow Frequency ............................................................................................................................ 51
3.2 Flood Probability ...................................................................................................................... 52
3.2.1 Selection of Data.................................................................................................................. 52
3.3.2 Plotting Positions ...................................................................................................................... 54
3.3.3 Theoretical Distributions of Floods ............................................................................................ 56
3.3.4 Extreme-Value Type I Distribution (Gumbel’s Method) .............................................................. 56
3.3.5 Gumbel's Equation for Practical Use ............................................................ 58
3.3.5.1 Gumbel’s Method ..................................................................................... 58
3.3.5.2 Confidence Limits for the fitted data ......................................................... 62
3.3.5.3 Log-Pearson Type III Distribution ............................................................................................ 64

3.3 Precipitation Probability ........................................................................................................... 72
3.4 Low Flow Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 73
3.5 Risk, Reliability and Safety factor .............................................................................................. 78
Chapter Four……. ............................................................................................................................... 80
4. Flood Routing .............................................................................................................................. 80
4.1 General .................................................................................................................................... 80
4.2 Simple Non-storage Routing ..................................................................................................... 82
4.3 Storage Routing ........................................................................................................................ 83
4.4 Reservoir or level pool routing .................................................................................................. 84
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4.5 Channel routing ........................................................................................................................... 87
4.6 Hydraulic Routing ..................................................................................................................... 90
Chapter Five…….. ............................................................................................................................... 95
5. Hydrology of Un-gauged Catchments........................................................................................... 95
5.1 General ........................................................................................................................................ 95
5.2 Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (UH) ................................................................................................... 95
5.3 Snyder’s Method .......................................................................................................................... 96
5.4 Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph ................................................................................................. 100
5.5 Application of SCS Unit Hydrograph............................................................................................ 105
5.5.1 Timing Parameter(s): ............................................................................................................... 105
5.5.2 SCS Lag Approach .................................................................................................................... 105
5.5.3 Segmental Approach ............................................................................................................... 108
5.5 Extrapolation of flow data to un-gauged sites: ........................................................................... 112
5.6 Determination of average annual discharge: .............................................................................. 113
Chapter Six……….. ............................................................................................................................. 127
6. Reservoir Capacity Determination ................................................................................................ 127
6.1 Types and purposes of reservoirs ............................................................................................... 127
6.1.1 Mass curve (ripple's) method .................................................................................................. 127
6.2 Reservoirs and sediments........................................................................................................... 133
6.2.1 Sediment Load Prediction .................................................................................................. 134
Chapter Seven….. ............................................................................................................................. 136
7 Basic Concepts of Stochastic Hydrology ..................................................................................... 136
7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 136
7.2 Time Series................................................................................................................................. 136
7.3 Properties of Time Series............................................................................................................ 138
7.4 Analysis of Hydrologic Time Series.............................................................................................. 139
7.1.1 Trend component .............................................................................................................. 141
7.1.2 Periodic component........................................................................................................... 144
7.1.3 Stochastic component ....................................................................................................... 148
7.2 Time Series Synthesis ............................................................................................................. 149
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7.3 Some Stochastic Models ......................................................................................................... 150
7.3.1 Purely random stochastic models ...................................................................................... 150
7.3.2 Autoregressive models ...................................................................................................... 151
7.3.3 First order Markov process with periodicity: Thomas – Fiering model ................................ 153
7.4 The Uses of Stochastic Models................................................................................................ 155
Chapter Eight……. ............................................................................................................................. 158
8 Introduction to Urban Hydrology ............................................................................................... 158
8.1 Catchment Response Modifications ........................................................................................ 158
8.2 Urban development planning ................................................................................................. 159
8.3 Drainage design ...................................................................................................................... 159
8.3.1 Impervious areas ............................................................................................................... 160
8.4 The Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL) .............................................................. 163
List of figures
Figure 1-1 Koga stream flow record compared with the precipitation record ................................ 7
Figure 2-1 Classification of hydrological models according to process description ....................... 11
Figure 2-2 Example of IDF Curve.................................................................................................. 18
Figure 2-3 Time area method ...................................................................................................... 29
Figure 2-4 Runoff Hydrograph2.9.1 Hydrograph Analysis ............................................................ 31
Figure 2-5 Runoff hydrograph ..................................................................................................... 32
Figure 2-6 Base flow separation .................................................................................................. 36
Figure 2-7 The unit hydrograph produced by 1mm of effective rainfall ....................................... 37
Figure 2-8 Conversion from u(1,t) to u(3,t)2.11.4 S-curve: ........................................................... 40
Figure 2-9 S-curve derivation ..................................................................................................... 41
Figure 2-10 1-Hr and 2-Hr UHs from S-Curve of 1 and 2 Hrs......................................................... 42
Figure 2-11Basin characteristics .................................................................................................. 44
Figure 2-12 Element of synthetic unit hydrograph ....................................................................... 44

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Figure 2-13 Unit hydrograph from complex storm....................................................................... 46
Figure 2-14 Unit hydrograph of different duration ...................................................................... 48
Figure 2-15Dimensionless SCS unit hydrograph ........................................................................... 49
Figure 3-1 Flow Duration Curve .................................................................................................. 52
Figure 3-3-2 Sequence of drought impacts .................................................................................. 76
Figure 3-3-3 Quantitative definition of droughts. X is a drought measure, X0 is the truncation level.
D1, D2, D3 are durations of droughts 1, 2 and 3. The areas S1, S2, S3 are severities of droughts 1, 2
and 3. ......................................................................................................................................... 78
Figure 4-1 Flood translation and attenuation .............................................................................. 81
Figure 4-2 Peak stage relationship............................................................................................... 82
Figure 4-3 Flood Peak travel time ................................................................................................ 82
Figure 4-4 Storage routing .......................................................................................................... 85
Figure 4-5 Storage routing (schematic) Table 3.1: Tabular computation of level pool routing ...... 86
Figure 4-6 Determining storage in a river reach ........................................................................... 88
Figure 4-7 Trial plots for Muskingum X values ............................................................................. 90
Figure 5-1 Basin Characteristics................................................................................................... 96
Figure 5-2 Elements of synthetic unit hydrograph ....................................................................... 98
Figure 5-3 SCS Dimensionless unit hydrograph and mass curve ..................................................100
Figure 5-4 Illustration of dimensionless curvilinear unit hydrograph and equivalent triangular
hydrograph. ...............................................................................................................................101
Figure 5-5 Illustration of volume breakdown of SCS triangular unit hydrograph. ........................101
Figure 5-6 FDC for gauging stations in a homogeneous drainage basin .......................................113
Figure 5-7 Parametric flow duration curves ................................................................................113
Figure 6-0-1 a) Mass curve .........................................................................................................127
Figure 6-0-2 longitudinal profile of a reservoir............................................................................134
Figure 6-0-3 Example of sediment rating curve. .........................................................................135

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Figure 7-1 Examples of Correlograms .........................................................................................146
Figure 7-2 River Thames at Teddington Weirs ( 82 years of monthly flows, from ........................149
Figure 7-3 Thomas-Fiering model ...............................................................................................154
Figure 8-1 Simple Pipe Design ....................................................................................................161
Figure 8-2 Time-area method for sewer design ..........................................................................164
List of tables
Table 1 Runoff coefficients for Rational formula.......................................................................... 17
Table 2 Adjustment factor (Fp) for pond and swamp areas that are spread throughout the ........ 27
Table 3 Factors affecting flood hydrograph ................................................................................. 34
Table 4 Plotting-position formulae .............................................................................................. 55
Table 5 Calculation of Frequency T .............................................................................................. 55
Table 6 Reduced mean yn in Gumbel's extreme value distribution, N = sample size ..................... 62
Table 7 Reduced standard deviation Sn in Gumbel's extreme value distribution,......................... 62
Table 8 Kz=F(Cs,T) for use in Log-Pearson Type III Distribution .................................................... 65
Table 9 Tabular computation of level pool routing ...................................................................... 87
Table 11 Rational method Drainage Design ................................................................................161
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Engineering Hydrology
Chapter One
1. Meteorological and Hydrological Data Analysis
1.1 General
Hydrological studies require extensive analysis of meteorological, hydrological and spatial

data to represent the actual processes taking place on the environment and better estimation
of quantities out of it. Precipitation is the source of all waters which enters the land.
Hydrologists need to understand how the amount, rate, duration, and quality of
precipitation are distributed in space and time in order to assess, predict, and forecast
hydrologic responses of a catchment.
Estimates of regional precipitation are critical inputs to water-balance and other types of
models used in water-resource management. Sound interpretation of the prediction of such
models requires an assessment of the uncertainty associated with their output, which in
turn depends in large measure on the uncertainty of the input values.
The uncertainties associated with a value of regional precipitation consist of:

1. Errors due to point measurement
2. Errors due to uncertainty in converting point measurement data into estimates
of regional precipitation
It is therefore, necessary to first check the data for its quality, continuity and consistency
before it is considered as input. The continuity of a record may be broken with missing
data due to many reasons such as damage or fault in recording gauges during a period. The
missing data can be estimated by using the data of the neighboring stations correlating the
physical, meteorological and hydrological parameters of the catchment and gauging
stations. To estimate and correlate a data for a station demands a long time series record of
the neighboring stations with reliable quality, continuity and consistency.
1
ASSEFA G. Aksum University
1.2 Meteorological data
1.2.1 Principles of Data Analysis

a) Corrections to Point Measurements
Because precipitation is the input to the land phase of the hydrologic cycle, its accurate
measurement is the essential foundation for quantitative hydrologic analysis. There are
many reasons for concern about the accuracy of precipitation data, and these reasons must
be understood and accounted for in both scientific and applied hydrological analyses.
Rain gages that project above the ground surface causes wind eddies affecting the catch of
the smaller raindrops and snowflakes. These effects are the most common causes of point
precipitation-measurement. Studies from World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
indicate that deficiencies of 10% for rain and well over 50% for snow are common in
unshielded gages. The daily measured values need to be updated by applying a correction
factor K after corrections for evaporation, wetting losses, and other factors have been
applied. The following equations are recommended for U.S. standard 8-Inch gauges with
and without Alter wind shields.
Correction factor for unshielded rain gauges:
0.58
Kru = 100 exp (-4.605 + 0.062 Va ) (1.1)
Correction factor for Alter wind shielded rain gauges:
0.69
Kru = 100 exp (-4.605 + 0.041 Va ) (1.2)
Where: Va = Wind speed at the gage orifice in m/s (Yang et al. 1998)
Errors due to splashing and evaporation usually are small and can be neglected. However,
evaporation losses can be significant in low-intensity precipitations where a considerable
amount could be lost. Correction for wetting losses can be made by adding a certain
amount (in the order of 0.03 – 0.10 mm) depending on the type precipitation.
Systematic errors often associated with recording type rain gauges due to the mechanics of
operation of the instrument can be minimized by installing a non recording type gauge
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adjacent to each recording gauge to assure that at least the total precipitation is measured.
Instrument errors are typically estimated as 1– 5% of the total catch (Winter (1981)).
Although difficult to quantify and often undetected, errors in measurement and in the
recording and publishing (personal errors) of precipitation observations are common. To
correct the error some subjectivity is involved by comparing the record with stream flow
records of the region.
b) Estimation of Missing Data When undertaking an analysis of precipitation data from
gauges where daily observations are made, it is often to find days when no observations
are recorded at one or more gauges. These missing days may be isolated occurrences or
extended over long periods. In order to compute precipitation totals and averages, one must
estimate the missing values.
Several approaches are used to estimate the missing values. Station Average, Normal
Ratio, Inverse Distance Weighting, and Regression methods are commonly used to fill the
missing records. In Station Average Method, the missing record is computed as the simple
average of the values at the nearby gauges. Mc Cuen (1998) recommends using this
method only when the annual precipitation value at each of the neighboring gauges differs
by less than 10% from that for the gauge with missing data.
(1.3)
Where: Px = The missing precipitation record P1, P2 , …, Pm = Precipitation records at

the neighboring stations M = Number of neighboring stations If the annual precipitations
vary considerably by more than 10 %, the missing record is estimated by the Normal Ratio
Method, by weighing the precipitation at the neighboring stations by the ratios of normal
annual precipitations.
(1.4)
Where: Nx = Annual-average precipitation at the gage with missing values N1 , N2 , …,
3
Nm = Annual average precipitation at neighboring gauges
The Inverse Distance Method weights the annual average values only by their distances,
dm, from the gauge with the missing data and so does not require information about
average annual precipitation at the gauges.
(1.5)
The missing value is estimated as:
(1.6)
The value of b can be 1 if the weights are inversely proportional to distance or 2, if the
weights are proportional to distance squared.
If relatively few values are missing at the gauge of interest, it is possible to estimate the
missing value by regression method.
c) Checking the Consistency of Point Measurements
If the conditions relevant to the recording of rain gauge station have undergone a
significant change during the period of record, inconsistency would arise in the rainfall
data of that station. This inconsistency would be felt from the time the significant change
took place. Some of the common causes for inconsistency of record are:
1. Shifting of a rain gauge station to a new location
2. The neighborhood of the station may have undergoing a marked change
3. Change in the immediate environment due to damages due to deforestation,
obstruction, etc.
4. Occurrence of observational error from a certain date both personal and
instrumental
The most common method of checking for inconsistency of a record is the Double-Mass
Curve analysis (DMC). The curve is a plot on arithmetic graph paper, of cumulative
4
precipitation collected at a gauge where measurement conditions may have changed

significantly against the average of the cumulative precipitation for the same period of
record collected at several gauges in the same region. The data is arranged in the reverse
order, i.e., the latest record as the first entry and the oldest record as the last entry in the
list. A change in proportionality between the measurements at the suspect station and those
in the region is reflected in a change in the slope of the trend of the plotted points. If a
Double Mass Curve reveals a change in slope that is significant and is due to changed
measurement conditions at a particular station, the values of the earlier period of the record
should be adjusted to be consistent with latter period records before computation of areal
averages. The adjustment is done by applying a correction factor K, on the records before
the slope change given by the following relationship.
(1.7)
1.2.2 Areal Estimation

Rain gauges represent only point measurements. in practice however, hydrological analysis
requires knowledge of the precipitation over an area. Several approaches have been
devised for estimating areal precipitation from point measurements. The Arithmetic mean,
the Thiessen polygon and the Isohyetal method are some the approaches.
The arithmetic mean method uses the mean of precipitation record from all gauges in a
catchment. The method is simple and give good results if the precipitation measured at the
various stations in a catchment show little variation.
In the Thiessen polygon method, the rainfall recorded at each station is given a weightage
on the basis of an area closest to the station. The average rainfall over the catchment is
computed by considering the precipitation from each gauge multiplied by the percentage of
enclosed area by the Thiessen polygon. The total average areal rainfall is the summation
averages from all the stations. The Thiessen polygon method gives more accurate
estimation than the simple arithmetic mean estimation as the method introduces a
weighting factor on rational basis. Furthermore, rain gauge stations outside the catchment
5
area can be considered effectively by this method.
The Isohyetal method is the most accurate method of estimating areal rainfall. The method
requires the preparation of the isohyetal map of the catchment from a network of gauging
stations. Areas between the isohyets and the catchment boundary are measured. The areal
rainfall is calculated from the product of the inter-isohyetal areas and the corresponding
mean rainfall between the isohyets divided by the total catchment area.
1.3 Hydrological Data
The availability of stream flow data is important for the model calibration process in
catchment modeling. Measured hydrograph reflects all the complexity of flow processes
occurring in the catchment. It is usually difficult to infer the nature of those processes
directly from the measured hydrograph, with the exception of some general characteristics
such as mean times of response in particular events. Moreover, discharge data are
generally available at only a small number of sites in any region where different
characteristics of the catchment are lumped together.
1.3.1 Missing Data and Comparison with the Precipitation Records
The data so far collected do not indicate any missing data. The potential errors in the
discharge records would affect the ability of the model to represent the actual condition of
the catchment and calibrating the model parameters. If a model is calibrated using data that
are in error, then the model parameter values will be affected and the prediction for other
periods, which depend on the calibrated parameter values, will be affected.
Prior to using any data to a model it should be checked for consistency. In data where there
is no information about missing values check for any signs that infilling of missing data
has taken place is important. A common indication of such obvious signs is apparently
constant value for several periods suggesting the data has been filled. Hydrographs with
long flat tops also often as sign of that there has been a problem with the measurement.
Outlier data could also indicate the problem.
6
Even though there is a danger of rejecting periods of data on the basis on these simple
checks, at least some periods of data with apparently unusual behavior need to be carefully
checked or eliminated from the analysis.
The available stream flow data for this analysis generally has corresponding match with
the precipitation records in the area. The high flows correspond to the rainy seasons. In
some of the years there are remarkably high flow records, for instance in the month of
august 2000 and 2001 the flow records are as high as 100 and 89 m3/s compared to normal
rainy season records which is between 30 and 65 m3/s. These data might be real or
erroneous. On the other hand the values match to the days of the peak rainfall records in
the area in both the cases.
Figure 1-1 Koga stream flow record compared with the precipitation record
However, the stream flow records of 1995 are exceptionally higher and different from flow
magnitudes that had been records for long period of time at Koga River. It is not only the
magnitude which is different from the normal flow record, but also it contradicts with the
magnitude of the precipitation recorded during the year. These records might be modeled
or transferred flows. Hence, the flow records of this year are excluded from being the part
of the analysis.
Example: 1
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A clear lake has a surface area of 708,000m2. For the month of March, this lake had an inflow of
1.5m3/s. A storage change of +708,000m3 was recorded. If the total depth of rainfall recorded at
the local rain gage was 225mm for the month, estimate the evaporation loss from the lake. State
any assumption that you make in your calculation.
Solution
The evaporation loss may be computed from the general water balance equation:
E = P + Qin-Qout-∆S
Seepage is assumed to be negliginble.
P = 225mm * 708,000m2 * 1000mm/m= 159,300m3.
Qin = 1.5m3/s * 86400 s/d * 31 d/month = 4,017,600 m3.
Qout = -1.25 m3/s * 86400 s/d * 31 d/month= -3,348,000 m3.
∆S = -708,000 m3.
Hence E= 159,300+4,017,600-3,348,000-708,000= 120,900m3 = 171 mm.
Example 2: A small catchment of area 150 ha received a rainfall of 10.5 cm in 90 minutes due to a
storm. At a the outlet of the catchment, the stream draining the catchment was dry before the storm
and experienced a runoff lasting for 10 hours with an average discharge value of 2.0 m3/s. The
stream was again dry after the runoff event. (a) What is the amount of water, which was not
available to runoff due to combined effect of infiltration, evaporation and transpiration?
(b)What is the ratio of runoff to precipitation?
SOLUTION: The water budget equation for the catchment in a time ∆ t is

P – R – G – E – T = ∆S
In the present case take ∆t = duration of the runoff = 10 hours
Note that the rainfall occurred in first 90 minutes and in the rest of 8.5 hours the precipitation was
zero.
∆S = change in the surface storage = 0
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(G + E + T) = water not available to runoff due to infiltration (causing addition to

groundwater storage), evaporation and transpiration
= Losses = L
It is reasonable to assume in this case that there was no contribution by ground water storage to
the runoff in the steam.
(a) Hence P-R =L
P = Input due to precipitation in 10 hours
10.5 3
= 150 x100 x100 x m = 157500 m3
100
R = runoff volume = outflow volume in catchment in 10 hours
= 2.0 x 10 x 60 x 60 =72000 m3
Hence L = 157500 – 72000 = 85,500 m3
= Volume of water not available to runoff
(b) Runoff/ rainfall = 72000/ 157500 = 0.457
⇒ This ratio is known as runoff coefficient.
Exercises
1. What is Hydrology?
2. A clear lake has a surface area of 708,000m2. For the month of March, this lake had an inflow
of 1.5m3/s. A storage change of +708,000m3 was recorded. If the total depth of rainfall
recorded at the local rain gage was 225mm for the month, estimate the evaporation loss from
the lake. State any assumption that you make in your calculation.
3. During a typical water year at a certain lake, whose water spread area was 5250Km2, it was
observed that, inflow=44.31Km3, Rainfall=686mm and flow=1172m3/s. the level of the lake
water fall by 1m at the end of the year. Estimate the evaporation & other losses.
4. A catchment has six rain gauge stations. In a given year, the annual rainfall recorded by the
gauges is as follows.
Station A B C D E F
Rainfall 82.6 102.9 180.3 110.3 98.8 136.7
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For a 10% Error in the estimation of the mean rainfall, calculate the optimum number of
stations in the catchment.
5. The normal annual rainfall at stations A, B, C and D in a basin are 80.97,67.59,76.28 and
92.01cms respectively. In the year 1975, the station D was inoperative & the stations A, B, &C
recorded annual precipitations of 91.11, 72.23 and 79.89cm respectively. Estimate the rainfall
at station D in that year.
6. The annual rainfall at station X and the average annual rainfall at 18 surrounding stations are
given below. Check the consistency of the record at station X and determine the year in which
a change in regime has occurred. State how you are going to adjust the records for the change
in regime. Determine the corrected rainfalls.
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
Year
30.5
38.9
43.7
32.2
27.4
49.3
28.4
24.6
21.8
28.2
17.3
22.3
28.4
24.1
26.9
20.6
29.5
28.4
Annual rainfall
32
Stn.X
18-Stn.
22.8
30.2
27.4
25.2
28.2
36.1
18.4
25.1
23.6
33.3
23.4
31.2
23.1
23.4
23.1
33.2
26.4
35
average 36
7. In a catchment area, approximated by circle of diameter 100km, four rainfall stations are
situated inside the catchment and other four stations outside in its neighbour hood. The
coordinates of the center of the catchment and of the eight stations are given below along with
their corresponding annual precipitation record for the year 1980.
8. Determine the average annual precipitation by all the three methods and compare the results.
Center = (100, 100), Diameter=100km (Distances are in Km)
Station 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Co-ordinates (30, 80) (70,100) (130,30) (100,140) (50,160) (30,100) (140,150) (100,70)
Precipitation 85.0 135 108 95 105 146 110 102
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Chapter Two
2. Rainfall-Runoff Relationships
2.1 Hydrological Models
The two classical types of hydrological models are the deterministic and the stochastic
types.
Figure 2-1 Classification of hydrological models according to process description
2.2 Deterministic Hydrological Models
Deterministic models permit only one outcome from a simulation with one set of inputs
and parameter values. Deterministic models can be classified to whether the model gives a
lumped or distributed description of the considered area, and whether the description of the
hydrological processes is empirical, conceptual, or more physically-based. As most
conceptual models are also lumped and as most physically based models are also
distributed. The three main groups of deterministic models:
Empirical Models (black box)
Lumped Conceptual Models (grey box)
11
Distributed Process (Physically) Description Based Models (white box)

2.2.1 Empirical (Black Box) Models
Black box models are empirical, involving mathematical equations that have been
assessed, not from the physical processes in the catchment, but from analysis of concurrent
input and output time series.
The first of this kind of model was the Rational Method published by the Irish engineer
Thomas James Mulvaney (1822-1892) in 1851. The model was a single simple equation
often used for drainage design for small suburban and urban watersheds. The equation
assumes the proportionality between peak discharge, qpk, and the maximum average
rainfall intensity, ieff:
qpk = CR* ieff*AD Where AD is drainage area and CR is the runoff coefficient, which
depends on watershed land use.
The equation was derived from a simplified conceptual model of travel times on basins
with negligible surface storage. The duration of the rainfall to be used in the equation is the
mean intensity of precipitation for duration equal to the time of concentration and an
exceedence probability of P.
The model reflects the way in which discharges are expected to increase with area, land
use and rainfall intensity in a rational way and hence its name Rational Method.
The scaling parameter C reflects the fact that not all the rainfall becomes discharge. The
method does not attempt to separate the different effects of runoff production and runoff
routing that controls the relationship between the volume of rainfall falling on the
catchment in a storm and the discharge at the hydrograph peak. In addition, the constant C
is required to take account of the nonlinear relationship between antecedent conditions and
the profile of storm rainfall and the resulting runoff production. Thus, C is not a constant
parameter, but varies from storm to storm on the same catchment, and from catchment to
catchment for similar storms.
12
The other best known among the black box models is the unit hydrograph model which
was published by Sherman (1932), who used the idea that the various time delays for
runoff produced on the catchment to reach the outlet could be represented as a time
distribution without any direct link to the areas involved. Because the routing procedure
was linear, this distribution could be normalized to represent the response to a unit of
runoff production, or effective rainfall, generated over the catchment in one time step. The
method is one of the most commonly used hydrograph modeling techniques in hydrology,
simple to understand and easy to apply. The unit hydrograph represents a discrete transfer
function for effective rainfall to reach the basin outlet, lumped to the scale of the
catchment.
Other empirical models are developed using linear regression and correlation methods used
to determine functional relationships between different data sets. The relationships are
characterized by correlation coefficients and standard deviation and the parameter
estimation is carried out using rigorous statistical methods involving tests for significance
and validity of the chosen model.
2.2.2 Lumped Conceptual Models
Lumped models treat the catchment as a single unit, with state variables that represent average values
over the catchment area, such as storage in the saturated zone. Due to the lumped
description, the description of the hydrological processes cannot be based directly on the
equations that are supposed to be valid for the individual soil columns. Hence, the
equations are semi-empirical, but still with a physical basis. Therefore, the model
parameters cannot usually be assessed from field data alone, but have to be obtained
through the help of calibration. One of the first and most successful lumped digital
computer models was the Stanford Watershed model developed by Norman Crawford and
Ray Linsley at Stanford University. The Stanford model had up to 35 parameters, although
it was suggested that many of these could be fixed on the basis of the physical
characteristics of the catchment and only a much smaller number needed to be calibrated.
13
2.2.3 Distributed Process Description Based Models

Another approach to hydrological processes modeling was the attempt to produce models
based on the governing equations describing all the surface and subsurface flow processes
in the catchment. A first attempt to outline the potentials and some of the elements in a
distributed process description based model on a catchment scale was made by Freeze and
Harlan (1969). The calculations require larger computers to solve the flow domain and
points at the elements of the catchment.
Distributed models of this type have the possibility of defining parameter values for every
element in the solution mesh. They give a detailed and potentially more correct description
of the hydrological processes in the catchment than do the other model types. The process
equations require many different parameters to be specified for each element and made the
calibration difficult in comparison with the observed responses of the catchment.
In principle parameter adjustment of this type of model is not necessary if the process
equations used are valid and if the parameters are strongly related to the physical
characteristics of the surface, soil and rock. In practice the model requires effective values
at the scale of the elements. Because of the heterogeneity of soil, surface vegetation
establishing a link between measurements and element values is difficult. The Distributed
Process Description Based Models can in principle be applied to almost any kind of
hydrological problem. The development is increased over the recent years for the fact that
the increase in computer power, programming tools and digital databases and the need to
handle processes and predictions of runoff, sediment transport and/or contaminants.
Another reason is the need of the models for impact assessment. Changes in land use, such
as deforestation or urbanization often affect only part of a catchment area. With a
distributed model it is possible to examine the effects of such land use changes in their
correct spatial context by understanding the physical meaning between the parameter
values and the land use changes.
14
Recent examples of distributed process based models include the SHE model (Abbott et
al., 1986), MIKE SHE (Refsgaard and Storm, 1995), IHDM (Institute of Hydrology
Distributed Model; Calver and Wood 1995), and THALES (Grayson et al. 1992), etc.
2.3 Stochastic Time Series Models
Stochastic models allow for some randomness or uncertainty in the possible outcomes due
to uncertainty in input variables, boundary conditions or model parameters. Traditionally, a
stochastic model is derived from a time series analysis of the historical record. The
stochastic model can then be used for the generation of long hypothetical sequences of
events with the same statistical properties as the historical record. In this technique several
synthetic series with identical statistical properties are generated. These generated
sequences of data can then be used in the analysis of design variables and their
uncertainties, for example, when estimating reservoir storage requirements.
With regard to process description, the classical stochastic simulation models are
comparable to the empirical, black box models. Hence, stochastic time series models are in
reality composed of a simple deterministic core (the black box model) contained within a
comprehensive stochastic methodology. So, these are the broad generic classes of rainfall-
runoff models, lumped or distributed; deterministic or stochastic.
The vast majority of models used in rainfall-runoff modeling are deterministic. Simpler
models still offer so wide applicability and flexibility. If the interest is in simulating and
predicting a one time series, for instance, run-off prediction, simple lumped parameter
models can provide just as good simulation as complex process description based models.
2.4 Rational Method
One of the most commonly used for the calculation of peak flow from small areas is the rational
formula given as:
(2.1)
15
3
Where, Qp = peak flow (m /s)
C = dimensionless runoff coefficient
i(tc,p) = the mean intensity of precipitation (mm/h) for a duration equal to tc and an
2
exceedence probability p A = drainage area in Km Assumptions inherent in the Rational Formula
are as follows:
• The peak flow occurs when the entire watershed is contributing to the flow
• The rainfall intensity is the same over the entire drainage area
• The rainfall intensity is uniform over a time duration equal to the time of concentration, tc .
the time of concentration is the time required for water to travel from the hydraulically
most remote point of the basin to the point of interest
• The frequency of the computed peak flow is the same as that of the rainfall intensity, i.e.,
the 10-yr rainfall intensity is assumed to produce the 10-yr peak flow
• The coefficient of runoff is the same for all storms of all recurrence probabilities .Because
of these inherent assumptions, the Rational Formula should only be applied to drainage
areas smaller than 80 ha.
2.5 Runoff Coefficient
The ground cover and a host of other hydrologic abstractions considerably affect the
coefficient. The rational equation in general relates the estimated peak discharge to a
theoretical maximum of 100% runoff. The Values of C vary from 0.05 for flat sandy areas
to 0.95 for impervious urban surfaces, and considerable knowledge of the catchment is
needed in order to estimate an acceptable value. The coefficient of runoff also varies for
different storms on the same catchment, and thus, using an average value for C, gives only
a rough estimate of Qp in small uniform urban areas. On top of this the Rational Formula
has been used for many years as a basis for engineering design for small land drainage
schemes and storm-water channels.
If the basin contains varying amount of different land cover or other abstractions, a
coefficient can be calculated through areal weighing as shown in equation (2.2). Typical
values are given in table 2.1 below.
16
(2.2)
Where x = subscript designating values for incremental areas with consistent land cover
Table 1 Runoff coefficients for Rational formula
Type of Drainage Area Runoff Coefficient, C∗

Business: • Downtown areas
Neighbor hood areas 0.70 – 0.95 0.50 – 0.70
Residential: •Single –family areas
•Multi- units, detached •Multi-units,
attached •Suburban •Apartment 0.30 – 0.50 0.40 – 0.60 0.60 -0.75
dwelling areas 0.25 – 0.40 0.50 – 0.70
Industrial •Light areas •Heavy areas
0.50 – 0.80 0.60 – 0.90
Parks, cemeteries 0.10 – 0.25
Playgrounds 0.20 – 0.40
Railroad yard areas 0.20 – 0.40
Unimproved areas 0.10 – 0.30
Lawns: •Sandy soil, flat 2% •Sandy
soil, average, 2-7% •Sandy soil,
steep, 7% •Heavy soil, flat, 2%
•Heavy soil, average 2-7% •Heavy 0.05 – 0.10 0.10 – 0.15 0.15 – 0.20
soil, steep, 7% 0.13 – 0.17 0.18 – 0.22 0.25 – 0.35
Streets: •Asphalted •Concrete •Brick
0.70 – 0.95 0.80 – 0.95 0.70 – 0.85

Drives and walks 0.75 – 0.85
Roofs 0.75 – 0.95
17
2.6 Rainfall intensity
Rainfall intensity, duration curve and frequency curves are necessary to use the Rational
∗
method. Regional IDF curves need to be developed for the catchment in question. Higher
values are usually appropriate for steeply sloped areas and longer return periods because
infiltration and other losses have a proportionally smaller effect on runoff in these cases
Figure 2-2 Example of IDF Curve
2.6 Time of Concentration
tc is the time of concentration, the time required for rain falling at the farthest point of the
catchment to flow to the measuring point of the river. Thus, after time tc from the
commencement of rain, the whole of the catchment is taken to be contributing to the flow.
The value of i, the mean intensity, assumed that the rate of rainfall is constant during tc,
and that all the measured rainfall over the catchment area contributes to the peak flow. The
peak flow Qp occurs after the period tc.
There are a number of methods that can be used to estimate time of concentration (tc),
some of which are intended to calculate the flow velocity within individual segments of the
flow path (e.g. shallow concentrated flow, open channel flow, etc.) the time of
18
concentration can be calculated as the sum of the travel times within the various
consecutive flow segments.
Sheet flow travel time: is the shallow mass of runoff on a planar surface with a uniform
depth across the sloping surface. This usually occurs at the headwater of streams over
relatively short distances ,rarely more than about 90m (300ft),and possibly less than 25m
(80ft).Sheet flow commonly estimated with a version of the kinematic wave equation a
derivative of Manning equation as follows:
2.3
Where:
Tn=sheet flow travel time,min
n=roughness coefficient
L=Flow length,m(ft)
I=rainfall intesity,mm/hr (in/hr)
S=surface slope ,m/m (ft/ft)
Kc=emperical coeefient equal to 6.943 (0.933 in English units)
Shallow concentrated flow velocity:After short distances of at most 90m (300ft),sheet flow
tends to concentrate in rills and then gullies of increasing proportions.Such flow is usually
reffered to as shallow concentrated flow.The velocity of such flow can be estimated using
a relationship between velocity and slope as follows:
V=velocity,m/s (ft/s)
K=intercept coeficient
Sp=slope,percent
Open Channel and pipe flow velocity: Flow in gullies empties in to channels or pipes.
Open channel flow is assumed to begin where the stream follows and defined path and
becomes visible/ significant. Manning’s equation can be used to estimate average flow
velocities in pipe and open channels
. (2.5)
19
Table1 Landcover with k value
Land cover/flow regime k

Forest with heavy ground litter; hay meadow
(overland flow) 0.076
Trash fallow or minimum tillage cultivation;
contour or strip cropped; woodland (overland
flow) 0.152
Short grass pasture ( over land flow) 0.213

cultivated straight row (overland flow) 0.274
Nearly bare and untilled (over land flow);alluvial
fans in western mountain regions 0.305
Grassed water way (shallow concentrated flow) 0.457
Unpaved (shallow concentrated flow) 0.491
Paved area (shallow concentrated flow);small
upland gullies. 0.619
Table 2 Surface description
Surface description n
smooth asphalt 0.011
smooth concrete 0.012
Ordinary cncrete lining 0.013
Good wood 0.014
Brick with cement mortar 0.014
Vitrified clay 0.015
Cast iron 0.015
Corrugated metal pipe 0.024
cement rubble surface 0.024
Fallow no residence 0.05
caltivated soils:Residue cover <=20% 0.06
Residue cover >20% 0.17
Range natural 0.18
Grass:Short grass prairie 0.15
Dense grasses 0.24
bermuda grass 0.41
Woods:Light undr brush 0.4
Dense under brush 0.8
20
When selecting n, consider cover to a height of about 30mm.This is the only part of the plant cover
that will obstruct sheet flow. For a circular pipe flowing full the hydraulic radius is one fourth of
the diameter. For a wide rectangular channel (w>1od) the hydraulic radius is approximately equal
to the depth the depth. The travel time is then calculated as follows.
(2.6)
Where:
Tti=travel time for segment I, min

L=Flow length for segment I,m (ft)
V=Flow length for segment velocity for segment I,m/s (ft/s)
For small natural catchments, a formula derived from data published by Kirprich
(2.7)
Where: L = the length of the catchment along the longest river channel (in m) S = overall
catchment slope (in m/m)
Table: Values of C as a function of land use, topography and soil type for use in
Land use and Soil Types

topography
Sandy loam Clay and siltloam Tight clay
Cultivated land
i) Flat 0.30 0.50 0.60

ii) Rolling
iii) Hilling 0.4 0.60 0.70
0.52 0.70 0.82
Pasture land
i) Flat 0.10 0.30 0.40

ii) Rollin
iii) Hilling 0.16 0.36 0.55
21
0.22 0.42 0.60
Forest land
i) Flat 0.10 0.30 0.40

ii) Hilling
0.30 0.50 0.60
Populated land
i) Flat 0.40 0.55 0.65

ii) Rolling
0.50 0.65 0.80
Example 1: Compute the value of weighted runoff coefficient of watershed from the following data
regarding watershed characteristics.
Land use and Cultivated land Pasture land Populated

topography land
Flat, sandy soil Rolling and sandy
soil flat,, sandy
soil
Area (ha) 100 30 75
Solution
Using the weighted runoff coefficient formula
C1a1 + C 2 a 2 + C 3 a3
C=
a1 + a 2 + a3
In which, the values of C1 are obtained from the above table, for a given land use and
topographical feature of the watershed. The calculation is shown in the following table.
Land use/ topography Area (ha) C Computation
1. Cultivated land +
C1a1 + C 2 a 2 + C 3 a3
flat topography + C=
a1 + a 2 + a3
100 × 0.30 + 30 × 0.16 + 75 × 0.40
22 =
ASSEFA G. 100 +Aksum
30 75 University
= 0.32
sandy soil 100 0.30
2. Pasture land +
rolling topography +
sandy soil 30 0.16
3. Populated land +
flat topography + 75 0.40
sandy loam soil
Example 2: An engineer is required to design a drainage system for an airport with an area of 2.5
km2 for 50 years return period. The 50-year rainfall intensity in that region is given by
35
I =
(t + 10)0.38
Where I is intensity in cm/h and t is duration in minutes.
If the concentration time for the area is estimated as 50 minutes, what is discharge that must be
used to design the system?
Solution
Concentration time tc = 50 min
35 35 35
Intensity of rainfall for this duration = I = = 0.38 = = 7.384 cm / h
(t + 10)0.38
60 4.74
Since the airport is fully paved, it may be considered impervious and the runoff coefficient C may
be taken as unity. Therefore
Q = 2.778 CAI = 2.778 × 1 × 2.5 × 7.384 = 51.25 m 3 / s
Therefore the engineer must design the drainage system for a discharge of 51.28 m3/s.
23
Example 3: A culvert is proposed across stream drainage an area of 185 ha. The catchment has a
slope of 0.004 and the length of travel for water is 1150 m. Estimate the 25-year discharge if the
rainfall intensity is given by
1000 Tr 0.2
I =
(t + 20)0.7
where I is in mm/h, Tr is in years and t is in minutes. Assume a runoff coefficient of 0.35.
Solution
L = 1150 m
S = 0.004
t c = 0.0195 (1150) (0.004)−0.385 = 37.2 min utes

0.77
1000 (25)
0.2
I = = 112.05 mm / h = 11.205 cm / h
(37.2 + 20)0.7
A = 185 ha = 1.85 km2
C = 0.35
Q = 2.778 × 0.35 × 1.85 × 11.205 = 20.12 m 3 / s
2.7 SCS Curve Number Method
The SCS (now known as NRCS) peak flow method calculates peak flow as a function of drainage
basin area. Potential water shed storage, and the time of concentration. The graphical approach
to this method can be found in TR-55.This rainfall-runoff relationship separates total rainfall in to
direct runoff. retention, and initial abstraction to yield the following equation for rainfall runoff:
24
Where:
Qb=depth of direct runoff,mm(in)
P=depth of 24 hour precipitation mm (in) This information is found in most highway agency
drainage manuals by multiplying the 24 hour rainfall intensity by 24 hours
SR=Retention,mm (in)
(2.9)
25
Example 4:
Given: The following physical and hydrological conditions
• 3.3 sq.km of fair condition open space and 2.8 sq km of large lot residential
• Negligible pond and swamp land
• Hydrologic soil type C
• Average antecedent moisture conditions
• Time of concentration is 0.8hr
• 24hr, type II rainfall distribution, 10yr rainfall of 150mm.
Find: The 10yr peak flow using the SCS peak flow method
Solution:
Step 1: Calculate the composite curve number using Table 2.4 and equation 2.2
Step 2: Calculate the retention SR using equation 2.9
S
tep 3: Calculate the depth of direct runoff using equation 2.8
Step 4: Determine Ia/P from Table 2.5.
Ia/P=0.10
26
Step 5: Determine coefficients from Table 2.5.
C0=2.55323
C1=-0.61512
C2=-0.16403
Step 6: Calculate peak flow using equation 2-11
Step 7: Calculate peak flow using equation 2-10
Table 2 Adjustment factor (Fp) for pond and swamp areas that are spread throughout the
watershed
27
2.8 Time-Area Method
The time – area method of obtaining runoff or discharge from rainfall can be considered as
an extension and improvement of the rational method. The peak discharge Qp is the sum
of flow –contributions from subdivisions of the catchment defined by time contours (called
isochrones), which are lines of equal flow – time to the river section where Qp is required.
The method is illustrated in Figure 2.3(a).
28
Figure 2-3 Time area method
The flow from each contributing area bounded by two isochrones (T -∆T, T) is obtained
from the product of the mean intensity of effective rainfall (i) from time (T -∆T, T) is
obtained from the product of the mean intensity of effective rainfall
(i) from time T-∆T to time T and the area (∆A). Thus Q4, the flow at X at time 4h is given
by: As
the assumption for the rational method, the whole catchment is taken to be contributing to
the flow after T equals to Tc. Hence the peak flow contributed from the whole catchment
after Tc of the commencement of rain is:
Where n, the number of incremental areas between successive isochrones, is given by

Tc/∆T, and k is a counter.
The unrealistic assumption made in the rational method of uniform rainfall intensity over
the whole catchment and during the whole of Tc is avoided in the time – area method,
where the catchment contributions are subdivided in time. The varying intensities within a
storm are averaged over discrete periods according to the isochrones time interval selected.
Hence, in deriving a flood peak for design purposes, a design storm with a critical
sequence of intensities can be used for the maximum intensities applied to the contributing
areas of the catchment that have most rapid runoff. However, when such differences within
a catchment are considered, there arises difficulty in determining Tc, the time after the
commencement of the storm when, by definition, Qp occurs.
29
2.9 Stream Flow Hydrograph
A hydrograph is a graphical plot of discharge of a natural stream or river versus time. The
hydrograph is a result of a particular effective rainfall hyetograph as modified by basin
flow characteristics. By definition, the volume of water under an effective rainfall
hyetograph is equal to the volume of surface runoff.
It has three characteristic parts: the rising limb, the crest segment and the falling limb or
depletion curve. With reference to figure 2.4 the effective rainfall hyetograph consisting of
a single block of rainfall with duration D (T is also used in the lecture note alternatively)
shown in the upper left part of the figure produced the runoff hydrograph. The areas
enclosed by the hyetograph and the hydrograph each represent the same volume, V, of
water from the catchment. The maximum flow rate on the hydrograph is the peak flow, qp,
while the time from the start of the hydrograph to qp is the time to peak, tp. The total
duration of the hydrograph known as the base time, tb.
The lag time, tL is the time from the center of mass of effective rainfall to the peak of
runoff hydrograph. It is apparent that tp = tL + D/2, using this definition. Some define lag
time as the time from center of mass of effective rainfall to the center of the runoff
hydrograph.
30
Figure 2-4 Runoff Hydrograph2.9.1 Hydrograph Analysis
One of the major tasks of the hydrograph analysis is to produce rainfall-runoff

relationships for a catchment area, for predicting runoffs as a result of certain rains which
does not involve the direct measurement of runoff.
Hydrograph describes the whole time history of the changing rate of flow from a
catchment due to rainfall event rather than predicting only the peak flow (Rational
Method). A natural hydrograph would be the result of continuous measurements of
discharge (with a recording device) producing the required relationship for any times
interval, e.g. for a single flood event related to a single storm.
Hydrograph may also show mean values of events observed over a long period (of several
years) as daily, monthly or annual averages in their temporal distribution over a year (or
the rainy season or any other defined period of interest) giving the solution of specific
problems (average storage behavior, average available discharge, etc).
Depending upon the unit of time involved, we have:

1 Annual hydrographs showing the variation of daily or weekly or 10 days daily mean
31
flows over a year.

2 Monthly hydrographs showing the variation of daily mean flows over a month
3 Seasonal hydrographs representing the variation of the discharge in a particular season
such as the monsoon season or dry season
4 Flood hydrographs or hydrographs due to storm representing stream flow due to a storm
over a catchment
The hydrograph of stream flow against time has two main components, the area under the
hump, labeled surface runoff (which is produced by volume of water derived from the
storm event), and the broad band near the time axis, representing base flow contributed
from groundwater.
Figure 2-5 Runoff hydrograph
At the beginning of the rainfall, the river level (and hence the discharge) is low and a
period of time elapses before the river begins to rise. During this period the rainfall is
being intercepted by vegetation or is soaking into the ground and making up soil-moisture
deficits. The length of the delay before the river rises depends on the wetness of the
catchment before the storm and on the intensity of the rainfall itself.
When the rainfall has satisfied catchment deficits and when surfaces and soils are
saturated, the rain begins to contribute to the stream flow. The proportion of rainfall that
finds its way into a river is being the effective rainfall, the rest being lost as in the form of
evaporation, detention on the ground and vegetation surface or retention in the soil. As the
storm proceeds, the proportion of effective rainfall increases and that of lost rainfall
decreases. The volume of surface runoff, represented by the area under the hydrograph
32
minus the base flow, can be considered in two main subdivisions to simplify the complex
water movements over the surface and in the ground. The effective rainfall makes the
immediate contribution to the rising limb from A to the peak of the hydrograph and, even
when the rainfall stops, continue until the inflection point (condition of maximum storage).
Beyond this point, it is generally considered that the flow comes from the water
temporarily stored in the soil. This so-called interflow continues to provide the flow of the
recession curve until the water from the whole of the effective rainfall is completely
depleted at B. The boundary between surface runoff and base flow is difficult to define and
depends very much on the geological structure and composition of the catchment.
Permeable aquifers, such as limestone and sandstone strata, sustain high base flow
contributions, but impervious clays and built-up areas provide little or no base flow to a
river. The base flow levels are also affected by the general climatic state of the area: they
tend to be high after period of wet weather and can be very low after prolonged drought.
Groundwater provides the total flow of the recession curve until the next period of wet
weather. The main aims of the engineering hydrologist are to quantify the various
components of the hydrograph, by analyzing past events, in order to relate effective rainfall
to surface runoff, and thereby to be able to estimate and design for future events. As a
result of the complexity of the processes that create stream flow from rainfall, many
simplifications and assumptions have to be made.
33
2.9.2 Factors affecting flood hydrograph

Table 3 Factors affecting flood hydrograph
Physiographic factors Climatic factors
1 Basin characteristics 1 Storm characteristics:

• shape precipitation, intensity, duration,
• size magnitude and movement of
• slope storms
• nature of the valley
• elevation
• drainage density
Infiltration characteristics
2
• land use and cover
2
• soil type and geological
conditions 3 Initial losses
• lakes, swamps and other Evapotranspiration
storages
Channel characteristics: cross-
section, roughness and storage
capacity
2.9.3 Effective Rainfall

At the start of a hydrograph analysis it is advisable to begin with a hydrograph produced
by a single rain event to identify the runoff characteristics of the catchment area. Such a
single event hydrograph is produced by the net or effective rain forming a flood wave or
the direct runoff which will be super imposed on the existing flow (base flow) of the river.
The portion of rainfall that finds its way into a river is known as the effective rainfall, the
rest being lost in evaporation, detention on the vegetation and ground surface or retention
in the soil. As the storm proceeds, the portion of effective rainfall increases and that of lost
rainfall decreases.
For the purposes of correlating direct runoff hydrograph (DRH) with the rainfall, which
produces the flow, it is necessary to obtain the effective rainfall hydrograph (hyetograph)
(ERH) which can be obtained by deducting the losses from the total rain. At the beginning
of a storm there could be considerable interception of the rainfall and initial wetting of
surfaces before the rainfall become ‘effective’ to form surface runoff.
34
The loss-rate is dependent on the state of the catchment before the storm and is difficult to
assess quantitatively. The two simplified methods of determining the effective rainfall are:
I. The φ-index method
II. The initial and continuing loss method.
I. The φ-index method: this method assumes a constant loss rate of φ-mm from the
beginning of the rainfall event. This amount accounts for interception, evaporation loss
and surface detention in pools and hollows.
II. Initial and continuing loss rate method: In this method all the rainfall up to the time
of rise of the hydrograph is considered lost, and there is a continuing loss-rate at same
level after words. A choice between the two methods depends on knowledge of the
catchment but, as the timing of the extent of initial loss is arbitrary, the fixing of the
beginning of effective rainfall at the beginning of runoff in the stream neglects any lag
time in the drainage process and thus somewhat unrealistic. A constant loss-rate, the φ-
index, would therefore seem to be more readily applicable.
2.10 Separation of Base Flow and Runoff
The total runoff consists of direct runoff and the base flow. For hydrograph analysis the
base flow has to be separated from the total runoff.
There are several methods of base flow separation. Some of them that are in common use
are:
Straight-line method (Method-I)

The separation of the base flow is achieved by joining with a straight-line beginning of the
direct runoff to a point on the recession limb representing the end of the direct runoff.
Point B the end of the recession limb may be located by an empirical equation for the time
interval N (days) from the peak to the point B is
0.2
N = 0.83A (2.15)
35
2
Where A = drainage in km and N in days
Method-II
In this method the base flow curve existing prior to the commencement of the surface
runoff is extended till it intersects the ordinate drawn at the peak Point C. This point is
joined to point B by a straight line. Segment AC and CB separate the base flow and
surface runoff.
Method-III
In this method the base flow recession curve after the depletion of the floodwater is
extended backwards till it intersects the ordinate at the point of inflection (line EF).
Points A and F are joined by an arbitrary smooth curve. This method of base-flow is
realistic in situations where the groundwater contributions are significant and reach the
stream quickly. The surface runoff obtained after the base-flow separation is known as
direct runoff hydrograph (DRH).
Time
Figure 2-6 Base flow separation
2.11 The Unit Hydrograph (UH)
A major step forward in hydrological analysis was the concept of the unit hydrograph
introduced by the American engineer Sherman in 1932. The unit hydrograph (UH) of
duration T is defined as the storm runoff due to unit depth (e.g. 1 mm rain depth) of
effective rainfall, generated uniformly in space and time on the catchment in time T. The
duration can be chosen arbitrarily so that we can have a 1h UH, a 6h UH, etc. in general a
36
D-h hour unit hydrograph applicable to a given catchment. The definition of unit
hydrograph implies the following.
1. The unit hydrograph represents the lumped response of the catchment to a unit
rainfall excess of T-h duration to produce a direct-runoff hydrograph. It relates only
the direct runoff to the rainfall excess. Hence the volume of water contained in the
unit hydrograph must be equal to the rainfall excess. As 1 mm depth of rainfall
excess is considered the area of the unit hydrograph is equal to a volume given by 1
mm over the catchment.
2. The rainfall is considered to have an average intensity of excess rainfall (ER) of 1/T
mm/h for the durationT-h of the storm.
3. The distribution of the storm is considered to be all over the catchment.
The requirement of uniformity in areal distribution of the effective rainfall is rarely met
and indeed unless the non-uniformity is pronounced, its effect is neglected.
Figure 2-7 The unit hydrograph produced by 1mm of effective rainfall
The figure shows the definition of rainfall-runoff relationship with 1mm of uniform
effective rainfall occurring over a time T producing the hydrograph labeled TUH. The
3
units of the ordinates of the t-hour unit hydrograph are m /s per mm of rain. The volume of
water in the surface runoff is given by the area under the hydrograph and is equivalent to
the 1mm depth of effective rainfall over the catchment area.
The unit hydrograph method makes several assumptions that give it simple properties
37
assisting in its application.
1. There is a direct proportional relationship between the effective rainfall and the storm
runoff. This is known as Law of proportionality.
Figure 2.6 b) above shows that two units of effective rainfall falling in time T produce a
surface runoff hydrograph that has its ordinates twice the TUH ordinates, and similarly for
any proportional value. For example, if 6.5 mm of effective rainfall fall on a catchment
area in T h, then the hydrograph resulting from that effective rainfall is obtained by
multiplying the ordinates of the TUH by 6.5From this law it can be seen that different rain
intensities with the same duration of the rain will produce hydrographs with different
magnitudes but the same base length; however, there will be only one unit hydrograph for
the same duration.
If the UH for a certain duration T is known then the runoff of any other rain of the duration
T may be computed by multiplying the UH ordinates with the ratio of the given rain
intensity with unit rain. i.e.:
2. The total hydrograph of direct runoff due to n successive amounts of effective rainfall
(for instance R1 and R2) is equal to the sum of the n successive hydrographs produced
by the effective rainfall (the latter lagged by T h on the former). This is known as Law
of Superposition. Once a TUH is available, it can be used to estimate design flood
hydrographs from design storms. The law of superposition is demonstrated in Figure
1.6 c above.
3. The third property of TUH assumes that the effective rainfall-surface runoff
relationship does not change with time, i.e., the same TUH always occurs whenever the
unit of effective rainfall in T h is applied on the catchment. Using this time invariance
assumption, once a TUH has been derived for a catchment area, it could be used to
represent the response of the catchment whenever required.
2.11.1 Derivation of the Unit Hydrograph from single storms
The derivation of the unit hydrograph of a catchment from single storms proceeds in the
38
following stages:
1. The rainfall records are scanned to find a storm of desired duration that gives a fairly
uniform distribution in time and space. The hyetograph of this storm is constructed using a
convenient uniform interval of time.
2. The base flow is separated from the hydrograph using one of the methods presented in
above base separation.
3. The surface runoff volume is determined as a depth of flow by numerical integration:
Where, d = depth of surface runoff in mm

∆t = uniform time interval in hours at which the ordinates of the surface runoff are
measured
3
ΣQ = sum of all ordinates of surface runoff hydrograph in m /s
2
A = catchment area in Km
4. The ordinates of the surface runoff hydrograph are divided by the runoff depth d
due to the ordinates of the unit hydrograph.
5. The unit hydrograph for effective rainfall of duration T, the TUH, is plotted, and
the area under the curve is checked to see if the enclosed volume is equivalent to unit
effective rainfall over the area of catchment.
2.11.2 Changing of the Duration of the UH
There are two methods to change the duration of unit hydrograph: (i) by superposition
from u(T1,t) to u(T2,t), where T2 = n*T1, with n an integer > 1, hence only enlargements
of multiple of T1 are possible, (ii) by S-curve technique from u(T1,t) to u(T2,t) where T2
= α*T1, with α a real > 0, hence, T2 may be larger than T1 but also smaller than T1. It
should be remembered that a unit hydrograph refers to unit depth of rainfall excess so if the
duration is T hours the excess rainfall intensity is 1/T.
2.11.3 Enlargement of T by superposition:
Say, it is required to derive from U (T1,t) a unit hydrograph of U(T2,t) with T2 = 3T1. The
39
U(T1,t) refers to a rainfall intensity of 1/T1 to give a unit depth, whereas U(T2.t) should
refer to 1/T2 to give unit depth of effective rainfall. The U(T2.t) is obtained by
superposition of three U(T1,t) shifted T1 hours apart. By adding the ordinates of U(T1,t)
u(T1, t-T1) and u(T1,t-2T1) at the corresponding times the resulting hydrograph Q(t) will
refer to an effective rainfall of 3T1*1/T1 = 3 units. Hence to get U(T2,t) all Q(t) ordinates
have to be multiplied by (i2/i1) = (1/T2)/(1/T1) = T1/T2 = 1/3, to let it refer to unit depth
of rainfall.
Figure 2-8 Conversion from u(1,t) to u(3,t)2.11.4 S-curve:
The S-curve is the hydrograph of runoff of continuous rainfall of intensity i.e. =1/T1. To
derive the S-curve assume a T-hour unit hydrograph with non-zero ordinates: u1, u2,
u3…,un. The base length is (n+1) T. the S-curve is obtained by superposition of n T-hour
UHs as shown in figure 2.9. The maximum is reached after n time of T hours. This
maximum is equal to Qs, i.e. the equilibrium discharge:
Where, Qs = the maximum rate at which an ER intensity of 1/T can drain out of the
2
catchment of area, A (km ) T1 = unit storm in hours
40
Figure 2-9 S-curve derivation
The S-curve is computed using the following scheme:

S1 = u1
S2 = u1+u2+ = u2+S1
S3 = u1+u2+u3 = u3 +S2
.
.
.
Sn = u1+u2+u3+…+un = un+Sn-1
So, generally;
Si = ui+Si-1 for i = 1,…,n
Si = Si-1 for i >n
The T2-hour UH is obtained from the difference b/n two S-curves

distanced T2-hours apart, corrected for the effective intensity as follows.
Since the S-curve refers to continuous rain of 1/T1 units, the difference
b/n the S-curves T2 hours refers to a rain intensity i1 = 1/T1, which
multiplied with the duration T2 will create a depth ≠1. A rainfall with
duration T2 requires an intensity i2 = 1/T2 to give unit dept. hence, the S-
curve difference has to be multiplied with the ratio i2/i1= (1/T2)/(1/T1) =
T1/T2 to get a unit depth in T2 hours. Hence, u(T2,t) follows from:
T1
u (T2 +t ) =( S (T1 , t ) − S (T1 , t − T ))
T2
Note that the base length follows from Tb2 = Tb1 - T1 +T2. The procedure is
shown in figure 2.10 below.
41
Figure 2-10 1-Hr and 2-Hr UHs from S-Curve of 1 and 2 Hrs
The errors in interpolation of UH ordinates often result in oscillation of S-curve at the

equilibrium value, Qs. This results in the derived T-h UH having an abnormal sequence of
discharges (sometimes even negative values) at the tail end. The S-curve and the resulting
T h UH is adjusted by smoothening the curves.
2.12 Applications of Unit Hydrograph
As the UH establishes a relationship between the DRH and ERH for a catchment, they are
of immense value in the study of the hydrology of a catchment.
They are of great use in:
• The development of flood hydrograph for extreme rainfall magnitudes for use in design
of hydraulic structures
• Extension of flood-flow records based on rainfall records
• The development of flood forecasting and warning systems based on rainfall.
2.12.1 Synthetic Unit Hydrographs

To develop unit hydrographs to a catchment, detailed information about the rainfall and the
resulting flood hydrograph are needed. However, such information might be available only
42
at a few locations and in a majority of catchments, especially those, which are at remote
locations; the data could normally be scarce. In order to construct UH for such areas,
empirical equations of regional validity, which relate the important hydrograph
characteristics to the basin characteristics are of most important. Unit hydrographs derived
from such relationships are known as synthetic unit hydrographs.
2.12.2 Snyder’s method
Snyder (1938), based on a study of a large number of catchments in the Appalachian
highlands of eastern United States developed a set of empirical equations for synthetic-unit
hydrographs in those areas.
The most important characteristics of a basin affecting a hydrograph due to a given storm
is basin lag. Actually basin lag (also known as lag time) is the time difference between the
cancroids of the input (rainfall excess) and the out put (surface runoff) i.e. TL. Physically,
it represents the main time of travel of water particles from all parts of the catchment to the
outlet during a given storm. Its value is determined essentially on the physical features of
the catchment, such as size, length, stream density and vegetation. For its determination,
however, only a few important catchment characteristics are considered. For simplicity,
Snyder has used a somewhat different definition of basin lag (denoted by tp) in his
methodology. This tp is practically of the same order of magnitude as TL and in this
section the term basin lag is used to denote Snyder’s tp.
The first of the Snyder’s equation relates the basin lag tp. Defined as the time interval from
the mid point of the unit rainfall excess to the peak of the unit hydrograph (Figure 2.12
0.3
below) to the basin characteristics as: tp = Ct (LLc) (2.20)
Where, tp in hours L = basin length measured along the watercourse from the basin divide
to the gauging station in km. Lc = distance along the main watercourse from the gauging
station to the point opposite (or nearest) the watershed centroid in km Ct = a regional
constant representing watershed slope and storage The value of Ct in Snyder’s study
ranged from 1.35 to 1.65. However, studies by many investigators have shown that Ct
depends upon the region under study and wide variations with the value of Ct ranging from
43
0.3 to 6.0 have been reported.
Figure 2-11Basin characteristics
Figure 2-12 Element of synthetic unit hydrograph
Since the coefficients Ct and Cp vary from region to region, in practical applications it is
advisable that the value of these coefficients are determined from known unit hydrographs
of meteorologically homogeneous catchments and then used in the basin under study. This
way Snyder’s equations are of use in scaling the hydrograph information from one
catchment to another similar catchment.
Important relationships:
• Basin lag tp
n
 LL 
t p = CtL  ca 
 S 
CtL and n are basin constants.( n= 0.38 and CtL = 1.715, 1.03, 0.50 for
mountainous, foot-hill and valley drainages of USA)
44
• Standard duration of effective rainfall, tr (in hours)

tp
tr =
5.5
• Peak discharge Qp (m3/s) of unit hydrograph of standard
duration tr
2.78C p A
Q ps =
tp
Where A = km2 , Cp = regional constant
If a non-standard rainfall duration tR h is adopted, instead of the value tr

to derive a unit hydrograph the value of the basin lag is affected. The
modified basin lag is given by:
t + tr
t'p = t p + R
4
21 t
= tp + R
22 4
Where t’p = basu=in lag in hours for an effective duration of tR. Therefore
Qp,
2.78C p A
Qp =
t'p
Note the when tR = tr implies QP = Qps
The time base of unit is given by Snyder as:

t'p
tb = ( 3 + ) days (72 + 3t ' p ) hours
8
This equation gives reasonable estimates of time base for large
catchments; it may give excessively large values of time base for small
catchments.
Taylor and Schwartz recommend
 t 
tb = 5 t ' p + R  hours
 2
with tb taken as the next larger integer value divisible by tR i.e. tb is about
five times the time to peak.
To assist in the sketching of unit hydrographs,
5.87
W50 = 1.08
q
W
and W75 = 50
1.75
Where W50 = width of unit hydrograph in hour at 50% peak discharge
45
W75 = width of unit hydrograph in hour at 75% peak discharge

q = Qp/A = peak discharge per unit catchment area in m3/s/km2
2.3 UH from a complex storm
In nature storms are most likely occurring with changing intensities over their total
duration. Natural hydrograph related to such complex storms may be considered as several
superimposed hydrographs related to single storms of constant intensity forming the total
given storm.
The resulting storm from the complex storm is divided into sub storms of equal duration
and constant intensity. After defining the effective rain from the individual storm and
computing the direct runoff hydrograph, the composite DRH is obtained.
At various time intervals 1D, 2D, 3D, … from the start of the ERH, let the ordinates of the
unit hydrograph be u1, u2, u3, … and the ordinates of the composite DRH be Q1, Q2,
Q3,….
Then;
Time
Figure 2-13 Unit hydrograph from complex storm
46
From equation (2.29) the values of u3, u2, and u1 … can be determined. However this
method suffers from the disadvantage that the errors propagate and increases as the
calculations proceeds.
The Un at higher n values (towards the end of the recession limb) can contain oscillations,
if so, the final values may be smoothened to find a reasonable curvature. The reason for
such behavior is the accumulation of small errors through the whole process of calculation.
Matrix methods with optimization schemes are useful to reduce the number of unknown
variables.
The other approach is to fit a suitable shape of UH to an average profile of the individual
UH. An arithmetic mean of superimposed ordinates may be lower than the individual
peaks. The proper procedure is to compute average peak flow and time to peak. The
average unit hydrograph is then sketched to conform to the shape of other graphs, passing
through the computed average peak and having the required unit volume.
2.4 Instantaneous unit Hydrograph (IUH)
For a given catchment a number of unit hydrographs of different durations are possible.
The shape of these different UHs depends upon the value of D. As the value of D is
reduced, the intensity of rainfall excess being equal to 1/D increases and the unit
hydrograph becomes more skewed. A finite UH is indicated as the duration D→o. The
limiting case of a unit hydrograph of zero duration is known as instantaneous unit
hydrograph (IUH). This IUH is a fictitious, conceptual UH which represent the direct
runoff from the catchment due to an instantaneous precipitation of the rainfall excess
volume of 1 unit (cm). IUH is represented by U(t) or sometimes by U(0,t). It is a single-
peaked hydrograph with a finite base width and its important properties being:
1.0<=u<=u(t) a positive value,for t>0
2. u(t) =0 for t<=0
3.u(t)→=0 for t→ ∞
4. ʃ0∞u(t)dt=unit depth over the catchment;
and
6. Time to peak=time to the centroid of the
47
curve
Figure 2-14 Unit hydrograph of different duration
Consider an effective rainfall I(t) of duration t0 applied to a catchment . Each infinitesimal

element of the ERH will operate on the IUH to produce a DRH whose discharge at time t
is given by:
Equation (2.30) is called the convolution integral. The main advantage of IUH is that, it is
independent of the duration of ERH and thus has one parameter less than a D-h unit
hydrograph. This fact and the definition of IUH make it eminently suitable for theoretical
analysis of excess-runoff relationship of a catchment. For a given catchment IUH, being
independent of rainfall characteristics, is indicative of the catchment storage
characteristics. Derivation of IUH As dt is made smaller and smaller, i.e., as dt→0 an IUH
results.
2.5 Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph
Dimensionless unit hydrograph is used to develop a synthetic Uh in place of Synder’s equations. A

typical UH developed by SCS has ordinates expressed as a ratio to the peak discharge (Q/Qp) and
48
the abscissa as ratio of time to peak time (t/tpk).

⇒ Q/Qp = 1.0, when t/tpk = 1.0
Figure 2-15Dimensionless SCS unit hydrograph
49
Chapter Three
3. Frequency Analysis
3.1 General
Water resource systems must be planned for future events for which no exact time of
occurrence can be forecasted. Hence, the hydrologist must give a statement of the
probability of the stream flows (or other hydrologic factors) will equal or exceed (or be
less than) a specified value. These probabilities are important to the economic and social
evaluation of a project. In most cases, absolute control of the floods or droughts is
impossible. Planning to control a flood of a specific probability recognizes that a project
will be overtaxed occasionally and damages will be incurred. However, repair of the
damages should be less costly in the long run than building initially to protect against the
worst possible event. The planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce the
frequency of flooding, and hence the resulting damages. If the socio-economic analysis is
to be correct, the probability of flooding must be eliminated accurately. For major projects,
the failure of which seriously threatens human life, a more extreme event, the probable
maximum flood, has become the standard for designing the spillway.
This chapter deals with techniques for defining probability from a given set of data and
with special methods employed for determining design flood for major hydraulic
structures.
Frequency analysis is the hydrologic term used to describe the probability of occurrence of
a particular hydrologic event (e.g. rainfall, flood, drought, etc.). Therefore, basic
knowledge about probability (e.g. distribution functions) and statistics (e.g. measure of
location, measure of spread, measure of skewness, etc) is essential. Frequency analysis
usually requires recorded hydrological data.
Hydrological data are recorded either as a continuous record (e.g. water level or stage,
rainfall, etc.) or in discrete series form (e.g. mean daily/monthly/annual flows or rainfall,
50
annual series, partial series, etc.).
For planning and designing of water resources development projects, the important
parameters are river discharges and related questions on the frequency & duration of
normal flows (e.g. for hydropower production or for water availability) and extreme flows
(floods and droughts).
3.2 Flow Frequency
The question a planner or decision maker would ask a hydrologist concerning normal
flows is the length of time (duration) that a certain river flow is expected to be exceeded.
An answer to this question is provided by the flow duration curve (FDC) that is the
relationship between any given discharge and the percentage of time that the discharge is
exceeded. Taking the n-years of flow records from a river gauging stations, there are
365(6)n daily mean discharges. The discharge is compiled, starting with the highest values.
If N number of data points are used for analysis, the plotting position of any discharge (or
class value) Q is:
Pp = m / (N+1) (3.1)
Where, m = is the order number of the discharge (or class value)
Pp = percentage probability of the flow magnitude being equalled or exceeded.
The FDC only applies for the period for which it was derived. If this is a long period, say
more than 10 to 20 years, the FDC may be regarded as a probability curve or flow
frequency curve, which may be used to estimate the percentage of time that a specified
discharge will be equalled or exceeded in the future. An example is demonstrated in table
below.
51
Discharge
(a) 106.7 107.1 148.2 497 1200 964.7 338.6 177.6 141 141 142.7 126.6
(m3/s)
Descending
(b) 1200 964.7 497 338.6 177.6 148.2 142.7 141 141 126.6 107.1 106.7
Order
Order (c) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
%Exceeded 16.67 25.00 33.33 41.67 58.33 66.67 83.33 91.67 100.0
(d) 8.33% 50.00% 75%
or Equaled % % % % % % % % 0%
Figure 3-1 Flow Duration Curve
The shape of the flow-duration curve gives a good indication of a catchment’s

characteristics response to its average rainfall history. An initially steeply sloped curve
results from a very variable discharge, usually from small catchments with little storage
where the stream flow reflects directly the rainfall pattern. Flow duration curves that have
very flat slope indicate little variation in flow regime, the resultant of the damping effects
of large storages.
3.3 Flood Probability
Selection of Data
If probability analysis is to provide reliable answers, it must start with a data series that is
52
relevant, adequate, and accurate. Relevance implies that the data must deal with the
problem. Most flood studies are concerned with peak flows, and the data series will
consist of selected observed peaks. However, if the problem is duration of flooding, e.g.,
for what periods of time a highway adjacent to a stream is likely to be flooded, the data
series should represent duration of flows in excess of some critical value. If the problem is
one of interior drainage of a leveed area, the data required may consist of those flood
volumes occurring when the main river is too high to permit gravity drainage.
Adequacy refers primarily to length of record, but sparisty of data collecting stations is
often a problem. The observed record is merely a sample of the total population of floods
that have occurred and may occur again. If the sample is too small, the probabilities
derived cannot be expected to be reliable. Available stream flow records are too short to
provide an answer to the question: How long must a record be to define flood probabilities
within acceptable tolerances?
Accuracy refers primarily to the problem of homogeneity. Most flow records are
satisfactory in terms of intrinsic accuracy, and if they are not, there is little that can be
done with them. If the reported flows are unreliable, they are not a satisfactory basis for
frequency analysis. Even though reported flows are accurate, they may be unsuitable for
probability analysis if changes in the catchment have caused a change in the hydrologic
characteristics, i.e., if the record is not internally homogenous. Dams, levees, diversions,
urbanization, and other land use changes may introduce inconsistencies. Such records
should be adjusted before use to current conditions or to natural conditions. There are two
data series of floods:
(i) The annual series, and
(ii) The partial duration series.
The annual series constitutes the data series that the values of the single maximum
daily/monthly/annually discharge in each year of record so that the number of data values
equals the record length in years. For statistical purposes, it is necessary to ensure that the
selected peak discharges are independent of one another. This data series is necessary if the
53
analysis is concerned with probability less than 0.5. However as the interest are limited to
relatively rare events, the analysis could have been carried out for a partial duration series
to have more frequent events. . The partial duration series constitutes the data series with
those values that exceed some arbitrary level. All the peaks above a selected level of
discharge (a threshold) are included in the series and hence the series is often called the
Peaks Over Threshold (POT) series. There are generally more data values for analysis in
this series than in the annual series, but there is more chance of the peaks being related and
the assumption of true independence is less valid.
3.3.2 Plotting Positions
Probability analysis seeks to define the flood flow with probability of p being equaled or exceed in
any year. Return period Tr is often used in lieu of probability to describe a design flood. Return
period and probability are reciprocals, i.e,
m
P=
N +1
p = 1/Tr (3.2)
To plot a series of peak flows as a cumulative frequency curves it is necessary to decide on a

probability or return period to associate with each peak. There are various formulas for
defining this value as shown in table 3.2.The probability of occurrence of the event r times in n
successive years can be obtained from:
(3.3)
Where q = 1 - P.
54
Table 4 Plotting-position formulae
Method P
California m/N
Hazen (m - 0.5) / N
Weibull m / (N+1)
Chegodayev (m - 0.3) / (N+0.4)
Gringorten (m - 3/8) / (N + 1/4)
Consider, for example, a list of flood magnitudes of a river arranged in descending order as shown in
Table 3.3. The length of record is 50 years.
Table 5 Calculation of Frequency T
Order No. m Flood magnitude Q (m3/s) T in years = 51/m

1 160 51.00
2 135 25.50
3 128 17.00
4 116 12.75
. . .
. . .
. . .
49 65 1.04
50 63 1.02
The last column shows the return period T of various flood magnitude, Q. A plot of Q Vs
T yields the probability distribution. For small return periods (i.e. for interpolation) or
where limited extrapolation is required, a simple best-fitting curve through plotted points
can be used as the probability distribution. A logarithmic scale for T is often
advantageous. However, when larger extrapolations of T are involved, theoretical
probability distributions (e.g. Gumbel extreme-value, Log-Pearson Type III, and log
normal distributions) have to be used. In frequency analysis of floods the usual problem is
55
to predict extreme flood events. Towards this, specific extreme-value distributions are
assumed and the required statistical parameters calculated from the available data. Using
these flood magnitude for a specific return period is estimated.
3.3.3 Theoretical Distributions of Floods
Statistical distributions are usually demonstrated by use of samples numbering in the
thousands. No such samples are available for stream flow and it is not possible to state
with certainty that a specific distribution applies to flood peaks. Numerous distributions
have been suggested on the basis of their ability to “fit” the plotted data from streams.
Chow has shown that most frequency-distribution functions applicable in hydrologic

studies can be expressed by the following equation known as the general equation of
hydrologic frequency analysis:
(3.4)
Where xT = value of the variate X of a random hydrologic series with a return period T, x
= mean of the variate, σ = standard deviation of the variate, K = frequency factor which
depends upon the return period, T and the assumed frequency distribution.
3.3.4 Extreme-Value Type I Distribution (Gumbel’s Method)
This extreme value distribution was introduced by Gumbel (1941) and is commonly
known as Gumbel's distribution. It is one of the most widely used probability-distribution
functions for extreme values in hydrologic and meteorological studies for prediction of
flood peaks, maximum rainfalls, and maximum wind speed, etc. Therefore, this extreme
value theory of Gumbel is only applicable to annual extremes. In contrast to the previous
example, in the Gumbel method the data are ranked in ascending order and it makes use of
the probability of non-exceedence q=1-P (the probability that the annual maximum flow is
less than a certain magnitude). The return period T is therefore given by :
T = 1 / P = 1 / (1-q).
Gumbel makes use of a reduced variate y as a function of q, which allows the plotting of
56
the distribution as a linear function between y and X (the maximum flow in this case).
Gumbel also defined a flood as the largest of the 365 daily flows and the annual series of
flood flows constitute a series of largest values of flow. According to his theory of extreme
events, the probability of occurrence of an event equal to or larger than a value x0 is
− y
P( X ≥ x 0 ) =1− e − e (3.5)
In which y is a dimensionless variable given by
y = α(X-a) (3. 6)
a = x − 0.45005σ
x
12825
.
α=
σx
1.2825(X − X )
Thus y= + 0.577 (3.7)
σX
Where x = mean and σx = standard deviation of the variate X. In practice it

is the value of X for a given P that is required and as such Eq.(6.6) is
transposed as
y = -1n(-1n(q)) = -1n(-1n(1-p)) (3.8)
meaning that the probability of non-exceedence equals:
− y
P( X ≤ x 0 ) = q = e − e (3.9)
Noting that the return period T = 1/P and designating; yT = the value of y,
commonly called the reduced variate, for a given T
57
   T  
y T = − ln ln  
   T − 1   (3.10)
   T  
y T = − 0.834 + 2.303 log log 
   T − 1  
Or (3.10a)
Now rearranging Eq.(6.6), the value of the variate X with a return period T is
x T = x + Kσ
x (3.11)
(y −0.577)
K=
T
Where 12825
.
Note that Eq. (3.12) is of the same form as the general equation of hydrologic-frequency
analysis, Eq. (3.4). Further eqs (3.11) and (3.12) constitute the basic Gumbel's equations
and are applicable to an infinite sample size (i.e. N →∞).
Since practical annual data series of extreme events such as floods, maximum rainfall
depths, etc., all have finite lengths of record; Eq. (3.12) is modified to account for finite N
as given below for practical use.
3.3.5 Gumbel's Equation for Practical Use
3.3.5.1 Gumbel’s Method

This extreme value distribution was introduced by Gumbel (1941) and is commonly
known as Gumbel's distribution. It is one of the most widely used probability-distribution
functions for extreme values in hydrologic and meteorological studies for prediction of
flood peaks, maximum rainfalls, and maximum wind speed, etc. Therefore, this extreme
value theory of Gumbel is only applicable to annual extremes. In contrast to the previous
example, in the Gumbel method the data are ranked in ascending order and it makes use of
the probability of non-exceedence q=1-P (the probability that the annual maximum flow is
less than a certain magnitude). The return period T is therefore given by:
58
T = 1/P = 1/(1-q).
Gumbel makes use of a reduced variate y as a function of q, which allows the plotting of
the distribution as a linear function between y and X (the maximum flow in this case).
Gumbel also defined a flood as the largest of the 365 daily flows and the annual series of
flood flows constitute a series of largest values of flow. According to his theory of
extreme events, the probability of occurrence of an event equal to or larger than a value x0
is
− y
P( X ≥ x 0 ) =1− e − e (3.12)
In which y is a dimensionless variable given by

y = α(X-a) (3.13)
a = x − 0.45005σ
x
12825
.
α=
σx
1.2825(X − X )
Thus y= + 0.577 (3.14)
σX
Where x = mean and σx = standard deviation of the variate X. In practice it is the value
of X for a given P that is required and as such Eq.(6.6) is transposed as
y = -1n(-1n(q)) = -1n(-1n(1-p)) (3.15)
meaning that the probability of non-exceedence equals:

− y
P( X ≤ x 0 ) = q = e − e (3.16)
Noting that the return period T = 1/P and designating; yT = the value of y, commonly
called the reduced variate, for a given T
   T  
y T = − ln ln  
   T − 1  
(3.17)
59
   T  
y T = − 0.834 + 2.303 log log  
   T − 1 
Or (3.17a)
Now rearranging Eq.(6.6), the value of the variate X with a return period T is
x T = x + Kσ
x (3.18)
(y −0.577)
K=
T
Where 12825
. (3.19)
Note that Eq. (6.11) is of the same form as the general equation of hydrologic-frequency
analysis, Eq.(6.3). Further, Eqs. (6.10) and (6.11) constitute the basic Gumbel's equations
and are applicable to an infinite sample size (i.e. N → ∞).
Since practical annual data series of extreme events such as floods, maximum rainfall
depths, etc., all have finite lengths of record, Eq. (6.11) is modified to account for finite N
as given below for practical use.
Gumbel's Equation for Practical Use: Eq. (6.10) giving the variate X with the return
period T is used as
x T = x + Kσ
n −1 (3.20)
∑ ( x− x )
2
=
N −1
Where σn-1 = standard deviation of the sample
yT − yn
K = frequency factor expressed as K = (3.21)
Sn
In which yT = reduced variate, a function of T and is given by
   T  
y T = − ln ln   (3.22)
   T − 1  
or
60
   T  
yT =− 0.834+ 2.303 log log  
   T − 1  
y n = reduced mean, a function of sample size N and is given in Table 6.3; for N →
∞, y n → 0.577.
Sn = reduced standard deviation, a function of sample size N and is given in Table
6.4; for N → ∞, Sn → 1.2825.
These equations are used under the following procedure to estimate the flood magnitude
corresponding to a given return period based on annual flood series.
1. Assemble the discharge data and note the sample size N. Here the annual flood
value is the variate X. Find x and σn-1 for the given data.
2. Using Tables 3 and 4 determine y n and Sn appropriate to given N
3. Find yT for a given T by Eq. (3.14).
4. Find K by Eq. (3.13).
5. Determine the required xT by Eq. (3.12).
To verify whether the given data follow the assumed Gumbel's distribution, the following
procedure may be adopted. The value of xT for some return periods T<N are calculated by
using Gumbel's formula and plotted as xT Vs T on a convenient paper such as a semi-log,
log-log or Gumbel probability paper. The use of Gumbel probability paper results in a
straight line for xT Vs T plot. Gumbel's distribution has the property which gives T = 2.33
years for the average of the annual series when N is very large. Thus the value of a flood
with T = 2.33 years is called the mean annual flood. In graphical plots this gives a
mandatory point through which the line showing variation of xT with T must pass. For the
given data, values of return periods (plotting positions) for various recorded values, x of
the variate are obtained by the relation T = (N+1)/m and plotted on the graph described
above. A good fit of observed data with the theoretical variation line indicates the
applicability of Gumbel's distribution to the given data series. By extrapolation of the
straight-line xT Vs T, values of xT> N can be determined easily.
The Gumbel (or extreme-value) probability paper is a paper that consists of an abscissa
specially marked for various convenient values of the return period T (or corresponding
61
reduced variate yT in arithmetic scale). The ordinate of a Gumbel paper represent xT (flood
discharge, maximum rainfall depth, etc.), which may have either arithmetic scale or
logarithmic scale.
Table 6 Reduced mean yn in Gumbel's extreme value distribution, N = sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.5220
20 0.5236 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424 0.5430
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.5600
Table 7 Reduced standard deviation Sn in Gumbel's extreme value distribution,
N = sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.1226 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.1388
40 1.1413 1.1436 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.1590
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.1930
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.2060
100 1.2065
3.3.5.2 Confidence Limits for the fitted data
Since the value of the variate for a given return period, xT determined by Gumbel's method
can have errors due to the limited sample data used; an estimate of the confidence limits of
62
the estimate is desirable. The confidence interval indicates the limits about the calculated
value between which the true value can be said to lie with a specific probability based on
sampling errors only. For a confidence probability c, the confidence interval of the variate
xT is bound by value x1 and x2 given by
x1/2 = xT± f (c) Se (3.23)
Where f(c) = function of the confidence probability c determined by using the table of
normal variate as
(3.23a)
K= frequency factor given by Eq. (3.14)
It is seen that for a given sample and T, 80% confidence limits are twice as large as the
50% limits and 95% limits are thrice as large as 50% limits.
In addition to the analysis of maximum extreme events, there also is a need to analyze
minimum extreme events; e.g. the occurrence of droughts. The probability distribution of
Gumbel, similarly to the Gaussian probability distribution, does not have a lower limit;
meaning that negative values of events may occur. As rainfall or river flows do have a
lower limit of zero, neither the Gumbel nor Gaussian distribution is an appropriate tool to
analyze minimum values. Because the logarithmic function has a lower limit of zero, it is
often useful to first transform the series to its logarithmic value before applying the theory.
Appropriate tools for analyzing minimum flows or rainfall amounts are the Log-Normal,
Log-Gumbel, or Log-Pearson distributions.
63
3.3.5.3 Log-Pearson Type III Distribution
This distribution is widely used in USA. In this distribution the variate is first transformed
into logarithmic form (base 10) and the transformed data is then analysed. If X is the
variate of a random hydrologic series, then the series of Z variates where
Z = log x (3.24)
are first obtained. For this z series, for any recurrence interval T, equation (3.4) gives
zT z Kz z = + σ (3.25)
Where Kz = a frequency factor which is a function of recurrence interval T and the

coefficient of skew Cs,
(3.26)
The variations of Kz = f(Cs, T) is given in Table 3.6. After finding zT by Eq.(3.19), the
corresponding value of xT is obtained by Eq.(3.18) as xT = antilog(zT). Sometimes, the
coefficient of skew Cs, is adjusted to account for the size of the sample by using the
following relation proposed by Hazen (1930)
(3.27)
Where s Cˆ = adjusted coefficient of skew. However the standard procedure for use of
Log-Pearson Type III distribution adopted by U.S. Water Resources Council does not
64
include this adjustment for skew. When the skew is zero, i.e. Cs = 0, the Log-Pearson Type
III distribution reduces to Log-normal distribution. The Log-normal distribution plots as a
straight line on logarithmic probability paper.
Table 8 Kz=F(Cs,T) for use in Log-Pearson Type III Distribution
65
The flood-frequency analysis described above is a direct means of estimating the desired
flood based upon the available flood-flow data of the catchment. The results of the
frequency analysis depend upon the length of data. The minimum number of years of
record required to obtain satisfactory estimates depends upon the variability of data and
hence on the physical and climatological characteristics of the basin. Generally a minimum
of 30 years of data is considered as essential. Smaller lengths of records are also used when
it is unavoidable. However, frequency analysis should not be adopted if the length of
records is less than 10 years.
Flood-frequency studies are most reliable in climates that are uniform from year to year. In
such cases a relatively short record gives a reliable picture of the frequency distribution.
With increasing lengths of flood records, it affords a viable alternative method of flood-
flow estimation in most cases.
A final remark of caution should be made regarding to frequency analysis. None of the
frequency distribution functions have a real physical background. The only information
having physical meaning are the measurements themselves. Extrapolation beyond the
period of observation is dangerous. It requires a good engineer to judge the value of
extrapolated events of high return periods. A good impression of the relativity of frequency
analysis can be acquired through the comparison of result obtained from different
statistical methods. Generally they differ considerably.
Example 3.1
Annual maximum recorded floods in a certain river, for the period 1951 to 1977 is given below.
Verify whether the Gumbel extreme-value distribution fit the recorded values. Estimate the flood
discharge with return period of (i) 100 years and (ii) 150 years by graphical extrapolation.
Solutions: The flood discharge values are arranged in descending order and the plotting position
N + 1 28
return period TP for each discharge is obtained as TP = = . Where m = order
m m
66
number. The discharge magnitude Q can be plotted against the corresponding TP on a Gumbel
extreme probability paper.
Year Max. flood (m3/s)

Year Max. flood (m3/s) Year Max. flood (m3/s)
1951 2947 1960 4798 1969 6599
1952 3521 1961 4290 1970 3700
1953 2399 1962 4652 1971 4175
1954 4124 1963 5050 1972 2988
1955 3496 1964 6900 1973 2709
1956 2947 1965 4366 1974 3873
1957 5060 1966 3380 1975 4593
1958 4903 1967 7826 1976 6761
1959 3757 1968 3320 1977 1971
The statistics x and σn-1 for the series are next calculated and are shown in table below.
Order Flood Order Flood
number discharge TP number discharge TP
m x (m3/s) (years) m x (m3/s) (years)
1 7826 28.00 15 3873 1.87
2 6900 14.00 16 3757 1.75
3 6761 9.33 17 3700 1.65
4 6599 7.00 18 3521 1.56
5 5060 5.60 19 3496 1.47
6 5050 4.67 20 3380 1.40
7 4903 4.00 21 3320 1.33
8 4798 3.50 22 2988 1.27
9 4652 3.11 23 2947 -
10 4593 2.80 24 2947 1.17
11 4366 2.55 25 2709 1.12
12 4290 2.33 26 2399 1.08
13 4175 2.15 27 1971 1.04
14 4124 2.00
N = 27 years, x = 4263 m3/s, σn-1 = 1432.6 m3/s
Using these the discharge xT for some chosen return interval is calculated by using Gumbel's
formulae [Eqs.(6.14), (6.13) and (6.12)]. From Tables 6.3 and 6.4, for N = 27, yn = 0.5332 and Sn
= 1.1004.
Choosing T = 10 years, by Eq.(4.15), yT = -[ln(ln(10/9))] = 2.25037 and

K = (2.25307-0.5332)/1.1004 = 1.56 and xT = 4263 + (1.56*1432.6) = 6499m3/s.
67
Similarly, values of xT are calculated for two more T values as shown below.
T XT[obtained by Eq.(4.12)]
(Years) (m3/s)
5.0 5522
10.0 6499
20.0 7436
When these values are plotted on Gumbel probability paper, it is seen that these points lie on a
straight line according to the property of the Gumbel's extreme probability paper. Then by
extrapolation of the theoretical xT Vs T relationship, from this plot, at T = 100 years, xT = 9600m3/s
and at T = 150 years, xT = 10700m3/s. [By using Eq. (3.12) to (3.14), x100 = 9558m3/s and x150 =
10088m3/s.]
Example 3.2:
Data covering a period of 92 years for a certain river yielded the mean and standard deviation of
the annual flood series as 6437 and 2951 m3/s respectively. Using Gumbel's method, estimate the
flood discharge with a return period of 500 years. What are the (a) 95% and (b) 80% confidence
limits for this estimate?
Solution: From Table 3 and 4 for N = 92 years, y n = 0.5589, and Sn = 1.2020. Then
y500 = -[ln((ln(500/499))] = 6.21361
K500 = (6.21361 - 0.5589)/1.2020 = 4.7044,
Hence, x500 = 6437 + 4.7044*2951 = 20320m3/s.
From Eq.(3.23a), b= 1 + 13
. (4.7044) + 11
. (4.7044) 2 = 5.61
2951
Se = probable error = 5.61 * = 1726
92
(a) For the 95% confidence probability f(c) = 1.96 and by Eq.(3.15) x1/2 = 20320xT± (1.96*1726),
which results in x1 = 23703m3/s and x2 = 16937m3/s. Thus the estimated discharge of
20320m /s has a 95% probability of lying between 23700 and 16940m3/s.
3
68
(b) For 80% confidence probability, f(c) = 1.282 and by Eq.(4.15) x1/2 = 20320xT± (1.282*1726),
which results in x1 = 22533m3/s and x2 = 18107m3/s. Thus the estimated discharge of
20320m /s has an 80% probability of lying between 22533 and 18107m3/s.
3
For the data of Example 6.2, the values of xT for different values of T are calculated and can be
shown plotted on a Gumbel probability paper.
Figure 3.2: Confidence bands for Gumbel’s distribution
Example 3.3: For the annual flood series data given in Example 3.1, estimate the flood discharge
for a return period of (a) 100 years (b) 200 years and (c) 1000 years by using Log-Pearson Type
III distribution.
Solution: The variate z = log x is first calculated for all the discharges in table below. Then the
statistics z , σz and Cs are calculated from table 4.6 to obtain
T
he flood discharge for a given T is calculated as below. Here, values of Kz for given T and Cs =
0.043 are read from Table 3.6.
69
70
Example 3.4: Computation of d-consecutive Day averages for low flow analysis.
Values in bold are minimum for the period shown
Example 3.5: A bridge has an expected life of 25 years and is designed for a flood magnitude of
return period 100 years. (a) What is the risk of this hydrological design? (b) If 10% risk is
acceptable, what return period will have to be adopted?
Solution:
(a) The risk R for n = 25 years and T = 100 years is:
71
Hence the inbuilt risk in this design is 22.2%.
(c) say 240 years. Hence to get 10% acceptable risk, the bridge will have to be designed for a flood
of return period T = 240 years.
Exercise: 3.3
Annual flood data of a certain river covering the period 1948 to 1979 yielded for the annual flood discharges
a mean of 29,600m3/s and a standard deviation of 14,860m3/s. for a proposed bridge on this river near the
gauging site it is decided to have an acceptable risk of 10% in its expected life of 50 years.
(a) Estimate the flood discharge by Gumbel's method for use in the design of this structure
(b) If the actual flood value adopted in the design is 125,000m3/s what are the safety factor and safety margin
relating to maximum flood discharge? (Answers (a) 105,000m3/s and (b) (SF)flood = 1.19, Safety Margin for
flood magnitude = 20,000m3/s)
3.4 Precipitation Probability
The preceding discussions on flood probability apply generally to precipitation. Annual

maximum hourly or daily amounts ordinarily conform to Gumbel Type I, Log-Pearson or
Log-Normal distribution. In humid areas, where the mean is high, monthly, seasonal, or
annual totals will approximate a normal distribution. In drier areas a skew distribution such
as the Log-Pearson, Log-Normal may give a better fit.
72
3.5 Low Flow Analysis
Characterization of the magnitude, frequency, and duration of low stream flows and droughts
is vital for assessing the reliability of flows for all in-stream and withdrawal uses and for
defining resource shortages and drought.
Definitions and Basic Concepts
Low Stream flows
The objective of low-flow analysis is to estimate the frequency or probability with which
stream flow in a given reach will be less than various levels. Thus the flow-duration curve; is
an important tool of low-flow analysis; from it one can readily determine the flow associated
with any exceedence or non-exceedence probability. Most of the time, the flow exceeded 95%
of the time, q95, is a useful index of water availability that is often used for design purposes.
For purposes of statistical analysis, low flows are defined as annual minimum flows averaged
over consecutive-day periods of varying length. The most commonly used averaging period is
d = 7days, but analyses are often carried out for d = 1,3, 15, 30, 60, 90 and 180 days as well.
Low-flow quantile values are cited as "dQp," where p is now the annual non-exceedence
probability (in percent) for the flow averaged over d-days. The 7-day average flow that has an
annual non-exceedence probability of 0.10 (a recurrence interval of 10 yr), called "7QI0," is
commonly used as a low-flow design value. the “7Q10” value is interpreted as follows:
In any year there is a 10% probability that the lowest 7-consecutive-day average flow will be
less than the 7QIO value.
Droughts
Droughts are extended severe dry periods. To qualify as a drought, a dry period must have
duration of at least a few months and be a significant departure from normal. Drought must be
expected as part of the natural climate, even in the absence of any long term climate change.
However, “permanent” droughts due to natural climate shifts do occur, and appear to have
been responsible for large scale migrations and declines of civilizations through human history.
The possibility of regional droughts associated with climatic shifts due to warming cannot be
73
excluded. As shown in Figure 3.3, droughts begin with a deficit in precipitation that is
unusually extreme and prolonged relative to the usual climatic conditions (meteorological
drought). This is often, but not always, accompanied by unusually high temperatures, high
winds, low humidity, and high solar radiation that result in increased evapotranspiration.
These conditions commonly produce extended periods of unusually low soil moisture, which
affect agriculture and natural plant growth and the moisture of forest floor (Agricultural
drought). As the precipitation deficit continues, stream discharge, lake, wetland, and reservoir
levels, and water-table decline to unusually low levels (Hydrological drought). When
precipitation returns to more normal values, drought recovery follows the same sequence:
meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological. Meteorological drought is usually characterized
as a precipitation deficit.
Low flow frequency analysis
As noted earlier, the objective of low flow frequency analysis is to estimate quantiles of annual
d-day-average minimum flows. As with floods, such estimates are usually required for reaches
without long-term stream flow records. These estimates are first developed by analyzing low
flows at gauging stations.
Low flow analysis at gauging stations:
For gauged reach, low flow analysis involves development of a time series of annual d-day low
flows, where d is the averaging period. As shown in the table below, the analysis begins with a
time series of average daily flows for each year. Then the overlapping d-day averages are
computed for the d values of interest. For each value of d, this creates 365-(d-1) values of
consecutive d-day averages for each year. The smallest of these values is then selected to
produce an annual time series of minimum d-day flows. It is this time series that is then
subjected to frequency analysis to estimate the quantiles of the annual d-day flows.
74
Low flow analysis at un-gauged stations:
As with floods, estimates of low flow quantiles are usually required for stream reaches
where there are no long-term gauging station records. There are two basic approaches to
developing such estimates:
1. Relate dQp values to drainage-basins characteristics via regression analysis.
2. During the low flow season, make a number of spot measurements of discharge at the
un-gauged stream reach where the dQp estimate is needed. Then relate those flows to
concurrent flows at a nearby gauging station using
qu = a + bqg (3.28)
where: qu is the flow at the un-gauged site, qg is the concurrent flow at the gauged site,
and a and b are estimated via regression anlysis. Then estimate the dQp at the un-gauged
site, dQpu, as:
dQpu = a + b.dQg (3.29)
where: dQqg is the dQp value established by frequency analysis at the gauged site. In order
to minimize errors when using this procedure, each pair of flows used to establish equation
(3.22) should be from a separate hydrograph recession, the r2 value for the relation of
equation (3.22) should be at least 0.70 and the two basins should be similar in size,
geology, topography, and climate.
Drought analysis
The objective of drought analysis is to characterize the magnitude, duration, and severity
of meteorological, agricultural, or hydrological drought in a region of interest. The analysis
process can be structured in terms of five questions:
75
Exercise 3.5
1. What type of drought of interest?
2. What averaging period will be used?
3. How will “drought” be quantitatively defined?
4. What are the magnitude-frequency relations of drought characteristics?
5. How are regional aspects of drought addressed?
Drought type:
As noted, one may be interested in one or more of the basic types of drought, each
reflected in time series of particular types of data: meteorological (precipitation);
agricultural (soil moisture); or hydrological (stream flow, reservoir levels, or ground water
levels).
Figure 3-3-2 Sequence of drought impacts
76
Averaging Period:
As with time-series analysis generally, drought analysis requires selection of an averaging

period (dt). Since drought by definition have significant duration, one would usually select
dt = 1 month, 3 months, or 1 yr, with the choice depending on the available data and the
purposes of the analysis. For a given record length the selection of dt involves a trade-off
in uncertainty of the analysis:
Drought definition:
Figure 3.4 shows a time series of a selected quantity, X (e.g., precipitation, stream flow,
ground water level), averaged over an appropriate dt. The quantitative definition of
drought is determined by the truncation level, X0, selected by the analyst: Values of X <
X0 are defined as droughts. Typical values for X0 might be:
Dracup et al. (1980) suggested choosing because it standardizes the analysis and
gives more significance to extreme events, which are usually of most interest.
Once X0 is determined, each period for which X < X0 constitutes a “drought” and each
“drought” is characterized by the following measures:
Duration, D = length of period for which X < X0;
Severity, S = cumulative deviation from X0;
77
Intensity (or magnitude), I = S/D.
Note that if X is stream flow [L3T-1], then the dimensions of S are [L3T-1]x[T]=[L3] and
the dimensions of I are [L3T-1]
Magnitude- Frequency Relations:
Once the severities, durations, and intensities of “drought” have been determined for a
given time series, the magnitude-frequency characteristics of each of those quantities can
be analyzed.
Figure 3-3-3 Quantitative definition of droughts. X is a drought measure, X0 is the

truncation level. D1, D2, D3 are durations of droughts 1, 2 and 3. The areas S1, S2, S3 are
severities of droughts 1, 2 and 3.
3.6 Risk, Reliability and Safety factor
Risk and Reliability: The designer of a hydraulic structure always faces a nagging doubt
about the risk of failure of his structure. This is because the estimation of the hydrologic
design values (such as the design flood discharge and the river stage during the design
flood) involve a natural or inbuilt uncertainty and as such a hydrological risk of failure. As
an example, consider a weir with an expected life of 50 years and designed for a flood
78
magnitude of return period T=100 years. This weir may fail if a flood magnitude greater
than the design flood occurs within the life period (50 years) of the weir.
The probability of occurrence of an event (x≥xT) at least once over a period of n

successive years is called the risk, R . Thus the risk is given by R = 1 -(probability of non-
occurrence of the event x≥xT in n years)
(3.30)
It can be seen that the return period for which a structure should be designed depends upon
the acceptable level of risk. In practice, the acceptable risk is governed by economic and
policy considerations.
Safety Factor: In addition to the hydrologic uncertainty, as mentioned above, a water

resource development project will have many other uncertainties. These may arise out of
structural, constructional, operational and environmental causes as well as from non-
technological considerations such as economic, sociological and political causes. As such,
any water resource development project will have a safety factor for a given hydrological
parameter M as defined below.
Safety factor (for the parameter M) = (SF) m=
(3.31)
The parameter M includes such items as flood discharge magnitude, maximum river stage,
reservoir capacity and free board. The difference (Cam - Chm) is known as Safety Margin.
79
Chapter Four
4 Flood Routing
General
At a river gauging station, the stage and discharge hydrographs represent the passage of
waves of river depth and stream flow during flood, respectively. As this wave moves down
the river, the shape of the wave gets modified due to various factors, such as channel
storage, resistance, lateral addition or withdrawal of flows etc. when a flood wave passes
through a reservoir, its peak is attenuated and the time base is enlarged (translated) due to
the effect of storage. Flood waves passing down a river have their peaks attenuated due to
friction if there is no lateral inflow. In both reservoir and channel conditions the time to
peak is delayed, and hence the peak discharge is translated.
Flood routing is the technique of determining the flood hydrograph at a section of a river
by utilizing the data of flood flow at one or more upstream sections. The hydrologic
analysis of problems such as flood forecasting, flood protection, reservoir and spillway
design invariably include flood routing. In these applications two broad categories of
routing can be recognized. These are:
i) Reservoir routing and
ii) Channel routing In reservoir routing the effect of a flood wave entering a reservoir is
studied. Knowing the volume-elevation characteristics of the reservoir and the out flow
elevation relationship for spillways and other outlet structures in the reservoir; the effect of
a flood wave entering the reservoir is studied to predict the variation of reservoir elevation
and out flow discharge with time. This form of routing is essential (i) in the design of the
capacity of spillways and other reservoir outlet structures and (ii) in the location and sizing
of the capacity of reservoirs to meet specific requirements.
In channel routing the changes in the shape of a hydrograph as it travels down a channel is
studied. By considering a channel reach and an input hydrograph at the upstream end, this
80
form of routing aims to predict the flood hydrograph at a various sections of the reach.
Information on the flood-peak attenuation and the duration of high-water levels obtained
by channel routing is utmost importance in flood forecasting operations and flood
protection works.
A variety of flood routing methods are available and they can be broadly classified in to
two categories as: (i) hydraulic routing and (ii) hydrologic routing. Hydrologic routing
methods employ essentially the equation of continuity and a storage function, indicated as
lumped routing. Hydraulic methods, on the other hand, employ the continuity equation
together with the equation of motion of unsteady flow. The basic differential equations
used in the hydraulic routing, known as St. Venant equations afford a better description of
unsteady flow than hydrologic methods.
A flood hydrograph is modified in two ways as the storm water flows downstream. Firstly,
and obviously, the time of the peak rate of flow occurs later at downstream points. This is
known as translation. Secondly, the magnitude of the peak rate of flow is diminished at
downstream points, the shape of the hydrograph flattens out, and the volume at the
floodwater takes longer to pass a lower section. This modification of the hydrograph is
called attenuation.
Time
Figure 4-1 Flood translation and attenuation
81
Simple Non-storage Routing
Relationship between flood events and stages at upstream and downstream points in a
single river reach can be established by correlating known floods and stages at certain
conditions. The information could be obtained from flood marks on river banks and bridge
sides. Measurements/estimates of floods can then be related to known the level of the flood
at the upstream and downstream locations. With such curves it is possible to give
satisfactory forecasts of the downstream peak stage from an upstream peak stage
measurement.
Peak H downstream (m)
Figure 4-2 Peak stage relationship
The time of travel of the hydrograph crest (peak flow) also need to be determined to know
the complete trace of modification of the wave. Curves of upstream stage plotted against
time travel to the required downstream point can be compiled from the experience of
several flood events.
Peak travel time to downstream point
Figure 4-3 Flood Peak travel time
The complexities of rainfall-runoff relationships are such that these simple methods allow
82
only for average conditions. Flood events can have very many different causes that
produce flood hydrographs of different shapes.
The principal advantages of these simple methods are that they can be developed for
stations with only stage measurements and no rating curve, and they are quick and easy to
apply especially for warning of impending flood inundations when the required answers
are immediately given in stage heights.
Storage Routing
When a storm event occurs, an increased amount of water flows down the river and in any
one short reach of the channel there is a greater volume of water than usual contained in
temporary storage. If at the beginning of the reach the flood hydrograph is (above normal
flow) is given as I, the inflow, then during the period of the flood, T1, the channel reach
has received the flood volume given by the area under the inflow hydrograph. Similarly, at
the lower end of the reach, with an outflow hydrograph O, the flood is given by the area
under the curve. In a flood situation relative quantities may be such that lateral and
tributary inflows can be neglected, and thus by the principle of continuity, the volume of
inflow equals the volume of outflow, i.e. the flood volume . At intermediate
time T, an amount has entered the reach and an amount has left the reach. The
difference must be stored within the reach, so the amount of storage, S, within the reach at
time t =
T is given by
The principle of hydrologic flood routings (both reservoir and channel) uses the continuity
equation in the form of “Inflow minus outflow equals rate of change of storage”.
i.e.
83
Where: It = Inflow in to
the reach
Ot= Outflow from the reach
dS/dt =Rate of change of storage within the reach. Alternatively, the continuity
(storage) equation can be stated as in a small time interval ∆t the difference between the
total inflow volume and total outflow volume in a reach is equal to the change in storage in
that reach, i.e.,
I ∆t − Q ∆t = ∆S
Where, I = average inflow in time ∆t
O = average outflow in time ∆t
∆S = change in storage
∆t = routing period. OR equation 3.2
can be rewritten as:
S i +1 − S i1
(I i + 1 + I i )− 1 (Qi + 1 + Qi )
=
∆t 2 2
The time interval ∆t should be sufficiently short so that the inflow and out flow
hydrographs can be assumed to be straight line in that interval. As a rule of thumb ∆t ≤1/6
of the time to peak of the inflow hydrograph is required. The continuity equation (I-Q =
dS/dt), forms basis for all the storage routing methods. The routing problem consists of
finding Q as a function of time, given I as a function of time, and having information or
making assumptions about storage, S.
Reservoir or level pool routing
A flood wave I(t) enters a reservoir provided with an outlet such as a spillway. The outflow
is a function of the reservoir elevation only, i.e., O = O (h). The storage in the reservoir is a
function of the flow reservoir elevation, S = S(h). Further, the water level in the reservoir
changes with time, h = h(t) and hence the storage and discharge change with time. It is
required to find the variation of S, h and O with time, i.e., find S=S (t), O = O (t) and h = h
(t), given I =I (t)
84
S Q
I
t t
Q=Q( h)
t R es e r v output
oi r
S= S ( h)
Inflow
S=S(h)
h
t
Figure 4-4 Storage routing
Depending on the forms of the outlet relations for O (h) will be available. For reservoir
routing, the following data have to be known:
1. Storage volume versus elevation for the reservoir
2. Water surface elevation versus out flow and hence storage versus outflow discharge
3. Inflow hydrograph, I= I(t); and
4. Initial values of S, I and O at time t = 0
The finite difference form of the continuity equation (Equation. 4.4) can be rewritten as:
( I1 + I 2 )∆t (Q1 + Q2 )∆t
− = S 2 − S1
2 2
Where, (I1+I2)/2= I ; (O1+ O2)/2 = O and S2-S1=∆S and suffixes 1 and 2 to denote the
beginning and end of the time interval ∆t
Rearranging Equation (4.4) to get the unknowns S2 and O2 on one side of the equation and
to adjust the O1 term to produce:
 S 2 Q2   S1 Q1  I1 + I 2
 + = + + − Q1
 ∆t 2   ∆t 2  2
Since S is a function of O, [(S/∆t) + (O/2)] is also a specific function of O for a given ∆t).
Replacing {(S/∆t) + (O/2)} by G, for simplification, equation (4.5) can be written:
G2 = G1 + Im –Q1 or more generally
85
Gi+1 = Gi + Im,i - Qi
Where Im = (I1 + I2)/2
Im = (I1 + I2)/2 To apply this method we need beside It also the G-O relation. The latter is
easily established from S-H and O-H relations, where for equal values of H, S and O are
determined; after which the proper interval ∆t the G-O relation is established. Note that G
is dependent on the chosen routing interval ∆t. The routing period, ∆t, has to be chosen
small enough such that the assumption of a linear change of flow rates, I and O, during ∆t
is acceptable (as a guide, ∆t should be less than 1/6 of the time of rise of the inflow
hydrograph). So, in short, the method consists of three steps:
1. Inspect the inflow hydrograph and select the routing interval: ∆t ≤ 1/6 time to peak
2. Establish the G-O relation
3. Carry out the routing according to equation (4.6)
4. A useful check on the validity of any level pool routing calculation is that the peak of
the outflow hydrograph should occur at the intersection of
3. The inflow and out flow hydrograph on the same plot. At that point, I = O, so ds/dt =
0, i.e. storage is a maximum and therefore O is a maximum. Therefore, the temporary
storage is depleted.
Figure 4-5 Storage routing (schematic) Table 3.1: Tabular computation of level pool
routing
86
Table 9 Tabular computation of level pool routing
4.5 Channel routing
In reservoir routing presented in the previous section, the storage was a unique function of
the outflow discharge, S=f(O). However in channel routing the storage is a function of
both outflow and inflow discharges and hence a different routing method is needed. The
flow in a river during a flood belongs to the category of gradually varied unsteady flow.
For a river reach where the water surface cannot be assumed horizontal to the river bottom
during the passage of a flood wave, the storage in the reach may be split up in two parts: (i)
prism storage and (ii) wedge storage Prism Storage is the volume that would exist if
uniform flow occurred at the downstream depth, i.e. the volume formed by an imaginary
plane parallel to the channel bottom drawn at a direct function of the stage at the
downstream end of the reach. The surface is taken parallel to the river bottom ignoring the
variation in the surface in the reach relative to the bottom. Both this storage and the
outflow can be described as a single function of the downstream water level and the
storage is a single function of the out flow alone. Wedge Storage is the wedge-like
volume formed b/n the actual water surface profile and the top surface of the prism storage.
It exists because the inflow, I, differs from O (out flow) and so may be assumed to be a
function of the difference between inflow and outflow, (I-O).
87
Figure 4-6 Determining storage in a river reach
At a fixed depth at a downstream section of river reach, prism storage is constant while the
wedge storage changes from a positive value at the advancing flood wave to a negative
value during a receding flood.
The total storage in the channel reach can be generally represented by:
S = f1(O)+f2(I-O) (3.7) And this can then be expressed as:
m m
S = K (x I + (1-x)O ) (3.8) Where K and x are coefficients and m is a constant
exponent. It has been found that the value of m varies from 0.6 for rectangular channels to
value of about 1.0 for natural channels.
Muskingum Method of Routing
Using m =1 for natural channels, equation (2.8), reduces to a linear relationship for S in
terms of I and Q as
S= K (x I+ (1-x)O (4.9)
This relationship is known as the Muskingum Equation. In this the parameter x is known
as weighing factor and take a value between 0 and 0.5. When x=0, obviously the storage is
a function of discharge only and equation (4.9) reduces to:
S = KQ (4.10)
88
Such storage is known as linear storage or linear reservoir. When x= 0.5 both the inflow
and out flow are equally important in determining the storage.
The coefficient K is known as storage-time constant and has dimensions of time. K is

approximately equal to the time of travel of a flood wave through the channel reach.
As before, writing the continuity equation in finite difference form, we can write
S2 - S1 = {(I1+I2)Δt}/2 - {(O1+O2) Δt}/2 (4.11)
For a given channel reach by selecting a routing interval Δt and using the Muskingum
equation, the change in storage can be determined.
S1 = K(xI1 + (1-x) Q1) (4.12)

S2 = K(xI2 + (1-x) Q2) (4.13)
Substituting equations (4.12) and (4.13) in equation (4.11) and after rearrangements
gives:
Q2 = c1I1 +c2I2 +c3Q1 and more generally as
Q i +1 = c 1 I i + c 2 I i +1 + c 3 Q i (4.14)
∆t + 2 Kx
Where: C1=
∆t + 2 K − 2 Kx
∆t − 2 Kx
C2=
∆t + 2 K − 2 Kx
− ∆t + 2k − 2 KX
C3=
∆t + 2k − 2kx
Note that ΣC=1 and thus when C1 and C2 have been found C3=1-C1-C2. Thus the outflow
at the end of a time step is the weighted sum of the starting inflow and outflow and the
ending inflow. It has been found that best results will be obtained when routing interval
should be so chosen that K>Δt>2kx. If Δt < 2kx, the coefficient C2 will be negative.
89
Application of the Muskingum Method
In order to use equation (2.14) for Oi+1, it is necessary to know K and x for calculating the
coefficients, C. Using recorded hydrographs of a flood at the beginning and end of the river reach,
trial values of x are taken, and for each trial the weighted flows in the reach, [xI+(1-x)O], are
plotted against the actual storages determined from the inflow and out flow hydrographs as
indicating in the following figure.
Figure 4-7 Trial plots for Muskingum X values
When the looping plots of the weighted discharge against storages have been narrowed down so
that the values for the rising stage and the falling stage for a particular value of x merge together to
form the best approximation to a straight line, then that x value is used, and the slope of the straight
line gives the required value of K. for natural channels, the best plot is often curved, making a
straight line slope difficult to estimate.
4.6 Hydraulic Routing
Tutorial Problem Set 2 (Taken from Chapter 16 – Flood Routing, Elisabeth Shaw)
1. The Muskingum constants, K and x, are estimated for a given river reach to be 12 hr and
0.2. Assuming an initial steady flow, determine the peak discharge at the downstream end
of the reach for the inflow hydrograph shown in the table 1 below.
90
2. The crest of a 20 m wide reservoir spillway consists of two 10 m wide gates, one of which
3 -1
is kept 0.5m lower than the other. The flow Q (m s ), over each gate is given by Q =
3/2
Cdbh where b (m) is the gate width and h (m) is the head on the gates. Position, can be
1/2 -1
taken as 2.0 (m s ) for each gate. Initial flows into and out of the 1 ha reservoir are equal
3 -1 3 -1
at 10 m s ). The inflow into the reservoir is to be increased steadily to 20 m s over 1h.
Find the outflow at the end of that time, assuming the gate positions remain unchanged ( 1
4 2
ha = 10 m )
2
3. A lake, having steep banks and a surface area of 6 km , discharges into a steep channel
which is approximately rectangular in section, with a width of 50 m. Initially, conditions
3 -1
are steady with a flow of 170 m s passing through the lake; then a flood comes down the
river feeding the lake, giving rise to the inflow hydrograph shown in table 2. Compute the
outflow hydrograph and plot it on the same graph with the inflow hydrograph. Note the
difference in magnitude and time between the two peaks. (Critical flow exists at the lake
-2
outlet, g = 9.81 ms
4. Discharge measurements at two gauging stations for a flood flow on the Macquarie River
in Australia are given in Table 3. It is assumed that there are no tributaries to the river
between the upstream stations B and the downstream station W. Apply the Muskingum
method of flood routing to derive a model for calculating sequential outflows at the
downstream end of the reach from measured flows at B. From the given inflows,
derive the computed peak outflow discharge and its time of arrival at W.
91
5. Analysis of past records for a certain river reach yielded the values of Muskingum
coefficient x = 0.22 and K = 1.5 days. Route the flood shown in Table 4 through
3 -1
the reach. The inflow continues at 14.2 m s after day 12.
Examples for Chapter Four:
Perform the reservoir routing for the data set in the following table. What are the translation and
the attenuated peak? How do you interpret the translation and attenuated peak as a hydrologist?
Hint: From the given relations it can be

assumed mathematically that:
Q = 0.495H2 + 1.548H
S = 4108H
Table 3 Inflow hydrograph
I,m3/s 0 1 2.5 5 7 8.5 9 8.5 8 6.8 5.5 4.6 3.5 2.6 1 0

Time (
min) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
92
Table 2 H-S-Q relation
H,(m) 0 0.3 0.61 0.91 1.22 1.52 1.83 2.13

3
S,(m ) 0 1233 2467 3700 4934 6167 7542 8857
Q,
0 0.425 1.11 1.678 2.549 3.54 4.475 5.239
(m3/s)
Solution:
First establish the relation between, H, S, and Q so that the following can be found;
H 0 0.3 0.61 0.91 1.22 1.52 1.83 2.13

S 0 1233 2467 3700 4934 6167 7542 8857
Q, m3/s 0 0.425 1.11 1.678 2.549 3.54 4.475 5.239
2S/dt+Q,
0 4.54 9.33 14.01 19 24.1 29.62 34.76
m3/s
Then follow the procedure to compute the corresponding outflow for each inflow in response to the
reservoir properties as follows
Time(min) I, m3/s I1+I2, m3/s 2S/dt-Q, m3/s 2S/dt+Q, m3/s H,m Q, m3/s
0 0 0 0 0
1 0 1
10 1 0.06 0.10
3.5 0.80 4.30
20 2.5 0.27 0.45
7.5 3.40 10.90
30 5 0.68 1.28
12 8.33 20.33
40 7 1.27 2.77
15.5 14.80 30.30
50 8.5 1.89 4.71
17.5 20.89 38.39
60 9 2.40 6.56
17.45 25.26 42.71
70 8.45 2.67 7.66
93
16.45 27.39 43.84

80 8 2.74 7.96
14.75 27.92 42.67
90 6.75 2.67 7.65
12.25 27.37 39.62
100 5.5 2.48 6.87
10.05 25.89 35.94
110 4.55 2.25 5.97
8.05 23.99 32.04
120 3.5 2.00 5.08
5.75 21.87 27.62
130 2.25 1.73 4.15
3.25 19.32 22.57
140 1 1.41 3.17
1 16.24 17.24
150 0 1.08 2.24
As can be seen the attenuated peak will be 7.96m3/s which is translated by 20mins from the inflow
peak. To see this effect well, draw the inflow outflow hydrograph.
10
8
I, O (m 3/s )
6
4
In
2
0
0 50 100 150 200
O ut
T im e
Figure 4.1: Inflow-Outflow hydrograph for a reservoir after routing
94
Chapter Five
5. Hydrology of Un-gauged Catchments
5.1 General
Due to different reasons that may pertain to technical or economical, there are some
catchments that are un-gauged. There should be a means so that the hydrology of these
catchments can be produced. Engineers and scientists have studied such cases and came up
with the acceptable means to the problem.
5.2 Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (UH)
Deriving a unit hydrograph for an un-gauged requires a relation between the physical
geometry of the area and the resulting hydrographs. Three approaches have been used:
formulas relating hydrograph features to obtain characteristics, transportation of unit
hydrographs, and storage routing. Basin characteristics formulas usually pertain to time of
peak, peak flow, and time base of the unit hydrograph. When these features are
established, the hydrograph can be sketched to provide the necessary unit volume.
Synthetic unit hydrographs, once developed for a watershed area, can be used with
historical or design rainfalls to produce storm hydrographs at the outlet of the watershed.
As the watershed changes over time, the UH can be updated to better represent land use
and channel alterations. Synthesis UHs developed along two main lines thought; one
assumed that each watershed had a unique UH related to specific watershed characteristic,
and the second assumed that all UHs could be represented by a single family of curves or a
single equation. However, the formulas all have certain limiting assumptions and should be
applied to new areas with extreme caution. Some calibration to adjacent watersheds where
stream flow exists should be attempted, if possible.
The first line of development was based on the rational method modified to include the
time-area curve for a particular watershed. Clark (1945) assumed that assumed that
95
watershed response would be given by routing the time-area curve through an element of
linear storage, which tends to attenuate and time-lag the hydrograph. Each UH would be
unique for a watershed, and this method thud represented a significant improvement over
the time-area method.
The second approach to UH development assumed mathematical representation for the

shape of the UH. A useful approach was advanced by the Soil Conservation Service (SCS,
1964, 1986).
5.3 Snyder’s Method
Snyder (1938) was the first to develop a synthetic UH based on a study of watershed in the
Appalachian Highlands. In basins ranging from 10 to 10,000mi2, Snyder’s relations are:
t p = C t (LLc )
0.3
(5.1)
Where: tp =basin lag(hr),
L =length of the main stream from the outlet to the divide (mi),
Lc =length along the main stream to a point nearest the watershed centroid(mi),
Ct =coefficient usually ranging from 1.8 to 2.2 (Ct has been found to vary from
0.4 in mountainous area to 8.0 along the Gulf of Mexico),
Figure 5-1 Basin Characteristics
96
Q p = 640C p A (5.2)
tp
Where: Qp =peak discharge of the unit hydrograph (cfs),
A =drainage area (mi2),
Cp =storage coefficient ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 where the larger values of Cp
are associated with smaller values of Ct
tp
Tb = 3 + (5.3)
8
Where Tb is the time base of the hydrograph, in days.
For small watersheds, Eq. (5.3) should be replaced by multiplying tp by a value that varies
from 3 to 5 as a better estimate of Tb. Equations (5.1), (5.2), and (5.3) define points for a
unit hydrograph produced by an excess rainfall of duration D= tp/5.5. For other rainfall
excess duration D’, an adjusted formula for tp becomes:
t 'p = t p + 0.25( D´− D) (5.4)
Where t´p is the adjusted lag time (hr) for duration D´(hr). Once the three quantities tp, Qp,
and Tb are known, the UH can be sketched so that the area under the curve represents
1.0in. of direct runoff from the watershed.
Snyder’s method is still one of the most popular methods because of its simplicity. Caution
should be used in applying Snyder’s method to s new area without first deriving
coefficients for gauged streams in general vicinity of the problem basin. The coefficient Ct
and Cp have been found to vary considerably from one region to another.
97
Figure 5-2 Elements of synthetic unit hydrograph
Important relationships:
Basin lag tp
CtL and n are basin constants. (n= 0.38 and CtL = 1.715, 1.03, 0.50 for mountainous, foot-
hill and valley drainages of USA) Standard duration of effective rainfall, tr (in hours)
Peak discharge Qp (m3/s) of unit hydrograph of standard duration tr
Where A = km2, Cp = regional constant
If a non-standard rainfall duration tR h is adopted, instead of the value tr to derive a unit

hydrograph the value of the basin lag is affected. The modified basin lag is given by:
98
Where t’p = basin lag in hours for an effective duration of tR. Therefore Qp,
Note that when tR = tr implies QP = Qps
The time base of unit hydrograph is given by Snyder as:
This equation gives reasonable estimates of time base for large catchments; it may give
excessively large values of time base for small catchments. Taylor and Schwartz
recommend
With tb taken as the next larger integer value divisible by tR i.e. tb is about five times the
time to peak. To assist in the sketching of unit hydrographs,
Where W50 = width of unit hydrograph in hour at 50% peak discharge
W75 = width of unit hydrograph in hour at 75% peak discharge
q = Qp/A = peak discharge per unit catchment area in m3/s/km2
99
Since the coefficients Ct and Cp vary from region to region, in practical applications it is
advisable that the value of these coefficients are determined from known unit hydrographs
of meteorologically homogeneous catchments and then used in the basin under study. This
way Snyder’s equations are of use in scaling the hydrograph information from one
catchment to another similar catchment.
5.4 Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph
The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) dimensionless unit hydrograph procedure is one of
the most well-known methods for deriving synthetic unit hydrographs in use today (Note:
the agency is now known as the Natural Resources Conservation Service or NRCS, but the
acronym SCS is still used in association with its UHG method). References for this method
can be found in most hydrology textbooks or handbooks. The primary reference for this
method may be considered as the Soil Conservation Service - National Engineering
Handbook, Section 4, Hydrology (SCS 1972). There are a number of versions of this
reference occurring both before and after the given date. The dimensionless unit
hydrograph used by the SCS was developed by Victor Mockus and was derived based on a
large number of unit hydrographs from basins which varied in characteristics such as size
and geographic location. The unit hydrographs were averaged and the final product was
made dimensionless by considering the ratios of q/qp (flow/peak flow) on the ordinate axis
and t/tp (time/time to peak) on the abscissa, where the units of q and qp are flow/inch of
runoff/unit area. This final, dimensionless unit hydrograph has a time-to-peak located at
approximately 20% of its time base and an inflection point at 1.7 times the time-to-peak.
Figure 5-3 SCS Dimensionless unit hydrograph and mass curve
100
For discussion purposes, this curvilinear unit hydrograph may be represented by an

equivalent triangular unit hydrograph as in Figure 5.4.
Figure 5-4 Illustration of dimensionless curvilinear unit hydrograph and equivalent

triangular hydrograph.
Recall that the unit hydrograph is the result of 1-inch of excess rainfall (of duration D)
spread uniformly over the basin. Using the geometry of the triangles (area = 1/2 base times
height), one can calculate that the unit hydrograph has 37.5% (or 3/8) of its volume on the
rising side and the remaining 62.5% (or 5/8) of the volume on the recession side.
Figure 5-5 Illustration of volume breakdown of SCS triangular unit hydrograph.
101
Using the dimensionless timing values on the x-axis, one can solve for the time base in
terms of the time-to-peak. The following relationships are made and will be useful in
further developing the peak rate relationships.
And (5.5)
(5.6)
Again using the geometric relationships (area = 1/2 base times height) of the triangular unit
hydrograph, the total volume under the hydrograph is found by:
(5.7)
The volume, Q, is in inches and the time, T, is in hours. The peak rate, qp, in inches per
hour, is found to be :
(5.8)
The term, qp, in the above equation is converted to cubic feet per second and the drainage
area, A (mi2), is brought into the equation, which results in :
(5.9)
f (the area under the unit hydrograph) from 1-square mile in 1-hour (3600 seconds).
Substituting in relationships developed in equation 1 above, equation 5 is rewritten :
(5.10)
Because the above relationships were developed based on the volumetric constraints of the
triangular unit hydrograph, the equations and conversions are also valid for the curvilinear
unit hydrograph, which, proportionally, has the same volumes as the triangular
102
representation. The conversion constant (or peaking factor) 484 is the result of the large
number of unit hydrographs from a wide range of basin characteristics and actually reflects
the ability of the watershed to retain and delay the flow.
This constant may not be applicable to all watershed types. Steep terrain and urban areas
may tend to produce higher early peaks and thus values of the peaking factor may tend
towards 600. Likewise, flat swampy regions tend to retain and store the water, causing a
delayed, lower peak. In these circumstances values may tend towards 300 or lower (SCS
1972; Wanielista, et al. 1997). It would be very important to document any reasons for
changing the constant from 484, effectively changing the shape of the unit hydrograph.
When changing the shape of the unit hydrograph, one must keep in mind the ratios of the
volumes under the rising and falling sides of the original dimensionless unit hydrograph
and the resulting volume under the unit graph must remain at 1 inch. The table below
illustrates possible values for the peaking factor and the associated ratios of recession limb
length to rising limb. The data below does not include a reference value for swampy
regions; however, this would be a rather low value, as well. Again, it is important to note
that experience and judgment are very important in determining the most appropriate
values for a region.
Hydrograph peaking factors and recession limb ratios (Wanielista, et al. 1997)
The peak rate may also be expressed in terms of other timing parameters besides the time-
to-peak. From the previous figures:
103
(5.11)
where D = the duration of the unit excess rainfall and Tlag = the basin lag time, which is
defined as the time between the center of mass of excess rainfall and the time to peak of
the unit hydrograph. The peak flow is now written as:
(5.12)
The SCS (1972) relates the lag time, Tlag, to the time of concentration, Tc by:
(5.13)
Time of concentration is the time from the end of excess precipitation to the inflection
point on the recession limb of the hydrograph. Combining this with other relationships, as
illustrated in the triangular unit hydrograph, the following relationships develop:
(5.14)
and
(5.15)
From this, the duration D may be expressed as:
(5.16)
Eq. (5.16) provides a desirable relationship between duration and time of concentration,
which will provide enough points to accurately represent the unit hydrograph, particularly
the rising limb. Eq. (5.16) IS NOT an equation for calculating the duration of the unit
104
hydrograph. The duration of the SCS unit hydrograph is simply chosen as D and locks in
the peak time by Eq. (5.11), above.
The peak flow rate could now be expressed in terms of the time of concentration as :
(5.17)
As a final note, for a unit hydrograph, the volume of runoff, Q, would be equal to 1-inch.
5.5 Application of SCS Unit Hydrograph
It is necessary to estimate the lag time for a given basin (of area, A) in order to derive the
SCS dimensionless unit hydrograph. Eq. (5.11) on the previous page:
(5.18)
The timing parameter is somewhat difficult to estimate and rather subjective; however, this
parameter has considerable influence on the values of the unit hydrograph.
5.5.1 Timing Parameter(s):

There are several methods that may be considered for estimating the timing of the unit
hydrograph.
5.5.2 SCS Lag Approach

The SCS lag method is an empirical approach developed by the SCS for estimating the
lag time or the distance from the center of mass of excess rainfall to the peak discharge.
The SCS also recommends that the lag equation be used on basins that are considered to be
somewhat homogeneous in nature and under than 2000 acres in size, although this may be
debatable. Due to these potentially restrictive recommendations, the method may not be
applicable to NWSRFS-sized basins; however, due to its relative ease of use and the
105
potential to eventually have a modeling capability for smaller basins, this method will be
discussed here. The SCS lag equation is given as:
(5.19)
where: Tlag = lag time in hours
L = Length of the longest drainage path in feet
S = (1000/CN) - 10 (CN=curve number)
%Slope = average watershed slope in %
The parameter S represents the potential maximum moisture retention of the soil and is
related to soil and cover conditions of the watershed. It is empirically-determined using an
SCS curve number (CN) which can be obtained from tables in SCS publications. The
remaining parameters are the Length, L, and the % Slope. The length, L is the length of the
longest drainage path from the watershed outlet to the watershed divide, which is generally
obvious for most watersheds. The more difficult parameter is the average slope of the
watershed. This is a rather subjective parameter, as it is highly dependent on the viewpoint
of the user. It is generally insufficient to use the slope of the longest drainage path as this
will usually produce a more mild slope and is not representative of the near-stream areas
which may have considerably higher slopes and cause faster responses.
The impact of a low value for slope is to produce a longer lag time, as can be seen from
equation 14. The longer lag time has the effect of reducing the peak of the unit
hydrograph as can be seen from equations Eq. (5.11) and Eq. (5.12).
Lindsey, Kohler, and Paulhus (1949) provide a means of estimating the average watershed
slope that involves overlaying a grid on the basin, which has been sketched on a
topographic map. The average slope is found by:
106
(5.20)
Where: N = total number of contour crossings on the grid lines
∆Z = the contour interval
l = the length of all the grid lines
Where N = total number of contour crossings on the grid lines, DZ = the contour interval
and l = the length of all the grid lines. In a geographic information system (GIS), there is a
grid already associated with the digital elevation model (DEM), thus thus the average slope
could be calculated by summing the number of potential contour crossings on each row
and column. The contour interval should be the expected accuracy of the DEM (i.e. 5
meters in the vertical). There is the potential problem of the contour lines not being
perpendicular to the rows and columns. Horton (1926) suggested the average slope could
be calculated by :
(5.21)
where q = the angle between the contours and the grid lines (rows and columns). Due to
the difficulty in evaluating q, Horton suggested that an average value of sec q = 1.571
could be used. Thus equation 15 could be written:
(5.22)
In recent years, GIS have become somewhat commonplace and provide an excellent means
for calculating the watershed slopes based on either a DEM or a triangular irregular
network (TIN), or on stream segments themselves.
107
5.5.3 Segmental Approach

In the segmental velocity or segmental approach, the parameter being estimated is
essentially the time of concentration or longest travel time within the basin. In general, the
longest travel time corresponds to the longest drainage path; however, there may be
situations and basin configurations that allow for some shorter travel distances to have
longer travel times, due to roughness and/or flow type. The flow path is broken into
segments with the flow in each segment being represented by some type of flow regime.
The most common flow representations are overland, sheet, rill and gully, and channel
flow. A number of equations or graphs are available to estimate the travel velocity of
surface flow in each type of condition. The travel times are then estimated by dividing the
segment length by the associated velocity. The sum of all of the travel times represents the
time of concentration.
A common SCS relationship between time of concentration and lag time is given by:
(5.23)
The velocities in each segment may be calculated by a number of means. For channel
segments, the velocity could be estimated via the Manning equation :
(5.24)
where: V = velocity
n = Manning roughness coefficient
Rh = hydraulic radius
S = slope in ft/ft
This would require knowledge of the channel parameters and/or shapes for the basin in
question. An equation similar in form to the Manning equation may be recommended :
108
(5.25)
Where k is a coefficient based on the flow type. McCuen (1989) and SCS (1972) provide
values of k for several flow situations. The values of K are assuming that slope is given in
percent. The Michigan Department of Natural Resources (Sorrell and Hamilton 1991) -
Land and Water Management Division (1991) provide very similar relationships as
illustrated below.
Timing Wrap-up
It is essential to have or estimate the "timing" of the unit hydrograph. The timing is what
locks in the time of the peak and helps to define the peak flow. Recall that the lag time is
from the center of mass of excess precipitation to the peak of the unit hydrograph.
Therefore; if we have a duration of 2 hours and we calculate the lag time of the basin to be
6 hours, then the time to peak would be 6 hours + 1 hour (half the duration) = 7 hours. As
you can see from the equations (particularly 5.11 & 5.12), the lag time is the desired
timing, although we can also use the time of concentration - which can be related to lag
time. We have discussed only a small number of methods of looking at the timing of a
basin. There are many other equations, although the thought process is generally the same -
you must find the lag time of the basin (or time of concentration) in order to compute the
peak flow of Eq. 5.12.
Conclusions
The following items, in no particular order of importance, must be considered when

deriving the SCS unit hydrograph:
1. Slope - The slope is the average slope of the basin. This is somewhat of a concern as the
response time may not be well represented by the average slope, or the contributing area(s)
may be smaller than the overall basin area and may be associated with a higher value of the
average slope.
109
2. The constant 484 in the equation for peak flow of the unit hydrograph - As mentioned
this may not be applicable for all areas of the country. This will require input from an
experienced hydrologist to determine the most appropriate values for various basins. A
default value of 484 will be used.
3. Duration - The duration of the unit hydrograph plays a role in determining the peak flow
via the time to peak. Equation 5.11 provides guidance for determining a value of the
duration, and hence the computational time step, such that there are sufficient points on the
rising side of the unit hydrograph to adequately represent and simulate runoff from a
precipitation event.
4. Triangular Shape - A triangular unit hydrograph is produced. The triangular unit

hydrograph represents 1-inch of excess precipitation (the volume under the unit
hydrograph). While the curvilinear unit hydrograph is more traditional in shape; there will
be minimal difference in the overall simulation capabilities between the two unit
hydrographs. This is particularly true for single event simulations.
Example for SCS
Let's look at an example of the computations. The pertinent data for a watershed is given in the
table below:
Develop a 1-hour unit hydrograph using the SCS method and the SCS lag equation for lag time.
Use the triangular approach for the final shape.
SOLUTION
110
While there are a number of places to begin, let's start by computing the lag time. Recall the lag
equation
The value S is 1000/CN - 10 which is found to be 1000/70 - 10 = 4.28.
You should now be able to compute a lag time of 4.8 hours with the above equation.
The time to peak would now be found from:
where D = the duration which was given as 1 hour.
Therefore, the time to peak = 1/2 + 4.8 = 5.3 hours.
The peak flow would now be obtained from:
and would be computed as 8,218 cfs/inch. Recall that A is the drainage area and Q = 1 inch.
Recall
The time base would be 2.67 x 5.3 hours = 14.15 hours.
The triangular unit hydrograph would now be:
111
Figure 5.3 - Final triangular unit hydrograph.
This could now be altered in the calibration process. Values at hourly intervals may be extracted
or interpolated.
5.5 Extrapolation of flow data to un-gauged sites:
All too often the stream flow data that are available from measured gauging stations are
not from location for which a project site analysis is to be made. Methods are required to
develop extrapolation of measured flow data which will be representative of a given site on
a stream. In regions where stream flow does not vary with respect to the contributing
drainage area flow duration curves can be plotted for the gauged sites. From these
developed flow duration curves, a family of parametric flow duration curves can be
developed, in which flow is plotted against the average annual runoff ( R ) or annual
discharge, Q at the respective gages for several exceedence interval percentages. A
separate curve is developed for each exceedence interval used. A correlation analysis is
then performed to obtain the best-fitting curve for the data taken from the measured
records of stream flow.
112
Figure 5-6 FDC for gauging stations in a homogeneous drainage basin
Figure 5-7 Parametric flow duration curves
5.6 Determination of average annual discharge:
To use the parametric flow duration curves effectively, it is necessary to determine the
,
average annual discharge, Q at the point or location on the stream for which a flow
analysis is to be made. Isohytal maps developed for normal annual precipitation in a river
basin are helpful for determining the annual discharge. The records of precipitation and
stream flow data should represent the same period of record.
Utilizing the records of average annual precipitation input to the basins at measured
streams nearby or having similar hydrologic characteristics, a runoff coefficient is
estimated for the drainage basin being studied. The product of this coefficient and the
113
computed normal annual precipitation input to the basin and the basin area can be used to
calculate the average annual discharge as:
T With the average runoff annual discharge estimate it is possible to enter the parametric
flow duration curve and determine values of flow for different exceedence percentages for
which the parametric flow duration curve has been developed.
Example 5.2:
A drainage basin has a power plant site located at the mouth of the catchment. An upstream
reservoir regulates the flow at the upper portions of the drainage. The area of the hydrologic map
representative of the drainage basin below the reservoir has been planimetered and given in table
A below. A runoff coefficient for the basin on the annual basis is 0.65. The historic monthly flows of
a nearby stream gauge on the downstream side of the stream are presented in table B. The gauge
records are considered to be a good representation of seasonal variation of runoff for the un-
gauged portion of the river drainage basin. The outflows from the reservoir are given in table C.
Using the information provided compute the river flow at its mouth that would be useful for the
hydropower study. Scale of the isohytal map is 1:400,000.
114
Solution:
Step 2: Compute yearly runoff from the representative gauge
Step 5: Compute the total flow at the outlet
Step 6: Compute the flow duration curve
115
The firm flow = 1.32 m3/sec
Figure 5.2 Flow Duration Curve
116
Exercises:
1. The principal dimensions of a catchment are shown in Figure 1 below. If all isochrones at
intervals of 1 min are arcs of circles centered at the outfall and the velocity of flow is
assumed constant at 1 ms-1, draw the time area diagram for the catchment. Ignore times of
entry. A design storm has the following sequence of 1-min intensities: 5.1, 6.4, 8.1, 10. 7,
14.1, 19.6, 30.3, 43.8, 28.0, 20.8, 12.3 and 4. 5 mm h-1 assuming a runoff coefficient of
0.25, estimate the peak rate of flow at the outfall
.
2. The 1-h 1 mm unit hydrograph for a small catchment is given in the Table 1 below. Determine
the peak of the hydrograph that should result from the following storm: 5 mm in the first hour, no
rain in the next 30 min, and 8 mm of rain in the next final hour. Assume a loss rate of 3 mmh-1 in
the first hour and 2 mmh-1 for the remainder of the storm Table 1
Time (h) 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Flow(m3/s) 0 0.9 3.0 5.5 4.3 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.4 0
3. During a notable storm, rainfall measurements were made at five stations in a particular river
catchment. Given the ordinates of the 5-h (1mm) unit hydrograph shown in Table 2 below, derive
the outflow hydrograph of the storm for the gauging station at the river outlet, assuming 80% of
the total precipitation is lost at a constant rate.
(Note: Refer Figure P4 on Page 543 from Elisabeth Shaw)

Table 2
Time(h) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
117
U(m3s-1) 0 0.8 5.0 7.5 5.0 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.3

Time (h) 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
U(m3s-1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0
4. An acceptable 1-h unit hydrograph (10 mm) has been derived for a catchment. Its ordinates are
shown in Table 3. What is the approximate area of the catchment? Determine the peak flow that
would result from a storm whose effective rainfall, assumed over the whole catchment, is given in
Table 4.
Table 3
Time (h) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
u(t) (m3s-1) 0 12 35 24 16 8 3 0
Table 4
Time (h) 0 1 2 30
Total accumulated effective rainfall (mm) 0 6 26 6.
5. The ordinates of the 1-h unit hydrograph of a catchment area are summarized in Table 5 below.
Table 5
Time(h) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
TUH Ordinate (m3s-1) 0 0.8 5.0 7.5 5.0 2.7 2.0 1.6
Time (h) 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
TUH Ordinate (m3s-1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0
a) Derive the S-Curve for the catchment

b) Use the S-Curve to obtain the 2-h unit hydrograph; and
c) Forecast the peak runoff that would result from storm in which the effective rainfall totals in
two consecutive 2-h periods were 20 mm and 5 mm.
Suggested solution for Tutorial Problem Set 1 (Taken from Chapter 13 –Rainfall-Runoff
Relationship, Elisabeth Shaw)
118
1. Time Area Method
Intensity
Area I1 I2 I3 I4 I5 I6
A1 A1I1
A2 A2I1 A1I2
A3 A3I1 A2I2 A1I3
A4 A4I1 A3I2 A2I3 A1I4
A5 A5I1 A4I2 A3I3 A2I4 A1I5
A6 A6I1 A5I2 A4I3 A3I4 A2I5 A1I6
A6I2 A5I3 A4I4 A3I5 A2I6
A6I3 A5I4 A4I5 A3I6
A6I4 A5I5 A4I6
A6I5 A5I6
A6I6
Option-I:
Qp (l/s)
AiIi AiIi AiIi AiIi AiIi AiIi
38070 0 0 0 0 0 2.64
114210 52920 0 0 0 0 11.61
190350 158760 81810 0 0 0 29.93
228420 264600 245430 118260 0 0 59.49
142762.5 317520 409050 354780 75600 0 90.26
47587.5 198450 490860 591300 226800 56160 111.89
119
0 66150 306787.5 709560 378000 168480 113.12

0 0 102262.5 443475 453600 280800 88.90
0 0 0 147825 283500 336960 53.35
0 0 0 0 94500 210600 21.19
0 0 0 0 0 70200 4.88
0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
7. Determination of Peak of the hydrograph
8. Derive the outflow hydrograph of the storm for the gauging station at the river outlet,
assuming 80% of the total precipitation is lost at a constant rate
9. Determine the peak flow that would result from a storm whose effective rainfall, assumed over
the whole catchment
120
Time (h) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Flow(m3/s) 0 0.9 3 5.5 4.3 3 1.9 1 0.4 0
Time (Minute) RF (mm) Loss Rate (mm/hr) Loss (mm) Effective RF

60 5 3 3 2
30 0 2 1 0
60 8 2 2 6
Time (h)
U(m3/s) 2 mm 0 mm 6 mm Outflow
0.0 0.0 2 0 0
0.5 0.9 2 0 1.8 0 1.8
1.0 3.0 2 0 6 0 6
1.5 5.5 2 0 6 11 0 0 11
2.0 4.3 2 0 6 8.6 0 5.4 14
2.5 3.0 2 0 6 6 0 18 24
3.0 1.9 2 0 6 3.8 0 33 36.8
3.5 1.0 2 0 6 2 0 25.8 27.8
4.0 0.4 2 0 6 0.8 0 18 18.8
4.5 0.0 2 0 6 0 0 11.4 11.4
5.0 0 6 0 6 6
121
5.5 6 2.4 2.4

6.0 6 0 0
Time Average R (mm) Effec. RF (mm) By Theisson Polygon Method

(Hr) Loss
5 32 25.6 6.4 32.1875 6.4375
5 24 19.2 4.8 24.0625 4.8125
Time(h) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
U(m3s-1) 0 0.8 5.0 7.5 5.0 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.3
Time (h) 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
U(m3s-1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0
R2 = R1 = R2 =
R1 =
6.4 4.8 Outflow 6.4375 4.8125 Outflow
U(m3s-
Time(h) Hydro. Hydro.
1) mm mm mm mm
0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00
5 0.8 5.12 0 5.12 5.15 0.00 5.15
10 5 32 3.84 35.84 32.19 3.85 36.04
15 7.5 48 24 72 48.28 24.06 72.34
122
20 5 32 36 68 32.19 36.09 68.28

25 2.7 17.28 24 41.28 17.38 24.06 41.44
30 2 12.8 12.96 25.76 12.88 12.99 25.87
35 1.6 10.24 9.6 19.84 10.30 9.63 19.93
40 1.3 8.32 7.68 16 8.37 7.70 16.07
45 1.1 7.04 6.24 13.28 7.08 6.26 13.34
50 0.9 5.76 5.28 11.04 5.79 5.29 11.09
55 0.8 5.12 4.32 9.44 5.15 4.33 9.48
60 0.6 3.84 3.84 7.68 3.86 3.85 7.71
65 0.4 2.56 2.88 5.44 2.58 2.89 5.46
70 0.3 1.92 1.92 3.84 1.93 1.93 3.86
75 0.1 0.64 1.44 2.08 0.64 1.44 2.09
80 0 0 0.48 0.48 0.00 0.48 0.48
90 0 0 0.00 0.00
Time (h) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
u(t) (m3s- 0 12 35 24 16 8 3 0
1)
Time (h) 0 1 2 3 Time 0 1 2 3

Total acc. Eff.RF(mm) 0 6 26 35 RF (mm) - 6 20 9
Time u(t) (m3s-1) u(t) (m3s-1) Total
123
(h) (10 mm) (1 mm) Hydrograph
0 0 0 0 0
1 12 1.2 7.2 0 7.2
2 35 3.5 21 24 0 45
3 24 2.4 14.4 70 10.8 95.2
4 16 1.6 9.6 48 31.5 89.1
5 8 0.8 4.8 32 21.6 58.4
6 3 0.3 1.8 16 14.4 32.2
7 0 0 0 6 7.2 13.2
8 98 0 2.7 2.7
9 0 0
From this the approximate area of the catchment = 35.28 sq. km.
5. a) Derive the S-Curve for the catchment b) Use the S-Curve to obtain the 2-h unit hydrograph
Time TUH S-
(Hr) Ord. Curve
0 0 0
1 25 0 25
2 125 25 0 150
3 358 125 25 0 508
4 465 358 125 25 0 973
5 405 465 358 125 25 0 1378
124
6 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 1683

7 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 1903
8 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2073
9 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2203
10 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2293
11 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2353
12 35 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2388
13 20 35 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2408
14 8 20 35 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2416
15 0 8 20 35 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 2416
16 0 8 20 35 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 2416
Time S- Lagged S1
(Hr) Curve by 2 hr –
S2 2TUH RF1=20mm RF2=5mm Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 25 25 12.5 250 250
2 150 0 150 75 1500 0 1500
3 508 25 483 241.5 4830 62.5 4892.5
4 973 150 823 411.5 8230 375 8605
5 1378 508 870 435 8700 1207.5 9907.5
6 1683 973 710 355 7100 2057.5 9157.5
125
7 1903 1378 525 262.5 5250 2175 7425

8 2073 1683 390 195 3900 1775 5675
9 2203 1903 300 150 3000 1312.5 4312.5
10 2293 2073 220 110 2200 975 3175
11 2353 2203 150 75 1500 750 2250
12 2388 2293 95 47.5 950 550 1500
13 2408 2353 55 27.5 550 375 925
14 2416 2388 28 14 280 237.5 517.5
15 2416 2408 8 4 80 137.5 217.5
16 2416 2416 0 0 0 70 70
c) Forecast the peak runoff that would result from storm in which the effective rainfall totals in two
consecutive 2-h periods were 20 mm and 5 mm.
126
Chapter Six
6. Reservoir Capacity Determination
6.1 Types and purposes of reservoirs
The reservoir capacity is a term used to represent the reservoir storage capacity. Its
determination is performed using historical inflow records in the stream at the proposed
dam site. There are several methods to determine a reservoir storage capacity. The most
common ones are presented below.
6.1.1 Mass curve (ripple's) method
A mass curve (or mass inflow curve) is a plot of accumulated flow in a stream against
time. As indicated below a mass curve can be prepared from the flow hydrograph of a
stream for a large number of consecutive previous years. Figure 5.1 (a) shows a typical
flow hydrograph of a stream for six consecutive years. The area under the hydrograph from
the starting year (i.e., 1953) up to any time tI (shown by hatching) represents the total
quantity of water that has flown through the stream from 1953 up to time t1 and hence it is
equal to the ordinate of the mass curve at time t1. The ordinates of mass curve
corresponding to different times are thus determined and plotted at the respective times to
obtain the mass curve as shown in fig. 5.1(b). A mass curve continuously rises as it shows
accumulated flows. The slope of the curve at any point indicates the rate of flow at that
particular time. If there is no flow during certain period the curve will be horizontal during
that period.
25000
20000
Cummulative discharge
15000
10000
5000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
M onth
Mass curve Demand curve
Figure 6-1 a) Mass curve
127
A demand curve (or mass curve of demand) on the other hand is a plot between
accumulated demand and time. If the demand is at a constant rate then the demand curve is
a straight line having its slope equal to the demand rate. However, if the demand is not
constant then the demand will be curved indicating a variable rate of demand.
The demand and supply curves discussed above are thus the basis of the mass curve (or
ripple's) method of reservoir capacity determination.
The reservoir capacity required for a specified yield or demand may be determined by
using mass curve and demand curve using the following steps.
1) A mass curve is prepared from the flow hydrograph for a number of consecutive years
selected from the available stream flow record such that it includes the most critical or
the driest period. Figure 6.3 shows a mass curve for a typical steam for a 6 years
period;
2) Corresponding to the given rate of demand, a demand curve is prepared. If the rate of
demand is constant then the corresponding demand curve is a straight line as shown in
figure 6.3
3) Lines such as GH, FJ, etc are drawn parallel to the demand curve and tangential to the
high points G, F etc, of the mass curve (or the points at the beginning of the dry
periods);
4) The maximum vertical intercepts X1Y1, X2Y2, etc between the tangential lines drawn
in step 3 and the mass curves are measured. The vertical intercepts indicate the volume
by which the total flow in the stream falls short of the demand and hence required to be
provided from the reservoir storage. For example assuming the reservoir to be full at G,
for a period corresponding to points G and Z1 there is a total flow in the stream
represented by Y1Z1and there is a total demand represented by X1Z1, leaving a gap of
volume represented by X1Y1which must be met with from the reservoir storage;
5) The largest of the maximum vertical intercepts X1Y1, X2Y2 etc, determined in step 4
represents the reservoir capacity required to satisfy the given demand. However, the
requirement of storage so obtained would be the net storage that must be available for
128
utilization and it must be increased by the amount of water lost by evaporation and
seepage.
Figure 6.1: Use of a mass curve to determine the reservoir capacity required to produce a
specified yield.
If the tangential lines drown (GH, FJ, etc) do not intersect the mass curve, the reservoir
will not be filled again. Moreover, if the reservoir is very large the time interval between
the points G and H, F and J, etc, may be several years. This graphical solution of the mass
method can also be done in tabular calculation easily using computer spreadsheet
programs.
Example 6.1: The following table gives the mean monthly flows in a river during certain year.
3
Calculate the minimum storage required for maintaining a demand rate of 40m /s: (a) using
graphical solution (b) using tabular solution.
Solution:
a) Graphical solution:
b) Tabular calculation (sequent-peak algorithm)
129
As shown fig 6.1 if the end points of the mass curve are joined by a straight line AB, then
its slope represents the average discharge of the stream over the total period for which the
mass curve has been plotted. If a reservoir is to be constructed to permit continuous release
of water at this average value of discharge for the period, then the capacity required for the
1 1
reservoir is represented by the vertical intercept between the two straight lines A B and
11 11
A B drawn parallel to AB and tangent to the mass curve at the lowest tangent point C
and the highest tangent point D, respectively. If the reservoir having this capacity is
1
assumed to contain a volume of water equal to AA at the beginning of the period, then the
reservoir would be full at D and it would be empty at C. However, if the reservoir was
empty in the very beginning, then it would be empty again at point E and also during the
period from F to K. On the other hand if the reservoir was full in the very beginning it
would be full again at points F and K, and between points A and E' there will be spill of
water from the reservoir.
In the earlier discussions the rate of demand has been assumed to be constant. However,
the rate of demand may not be always constant, in which case the demand curve will be
curve with its slope varying from point to point in accordance with the variable rate of
demand at different times. In this case also the required capacity of the reservoir can be
determined in the same way by super imposing the demand curve on the mass curve from
the high points (or beginning of the dry period) till the two meet again. The largest vertical
intercept between the two curves gives the reservoir capacity. It is however essential that
130
the demand curve for the variable demand coincide chronologically with the mass curve of
stream flow, i.e. June demand must coincide with June inflow and so on.
Figure 6.4: Use of a mass curve to determine the reservoir capacity required to produce
yield equal to the average discharge of the stream.
Example 6.2: Reservoir Capacity determination by the use of flow duration curve Determine the
reservoir capacity required if a hydropower plant is designed to operate at an average flow.
3
Solution: The average flow is 340.93 m /s.
i) First option: Storage is same as the hatched area under flow duration curve.
Discharge
(a) 106.7 107.1 148.2 497 1200 964.7 338.6 177.6 141 141 142.7 126.6
(m3/s)
Descending
(b) 1200 964.7 497 338.6 177.6 148.2 142.7 141 141 126.6 107.1 106.7
Order
Order (c)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
%Exceeded 8.33 16.67 25.00 33.33 41.67 50.00 58.33 66.67 83.33 100.0
(d) 75% 91.67%
or Equaled % % % % % % % % % 0%
(1) (2) (3) (1) -(3)

Ordinate of Flow %Exceded or Average
Duration Curve (m3/s) Equalled Flow Area
1200 8.33% 340.93 0.00 0.00
964.7 16.67% 340.93 0.00 0.00
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497 25.00% 340.93 0.00 0.00

338.6 33.33% 340.93 2.33 6.90
177.6 41.67% 340.93 163.33 14.84
148.2 50.00% 340.93 192.73 16.29
142.7 58.33% 340.93 198.23 16.59
141 66.67% 340.93 199.93 16.66
141 75.00% 340.93 199.93 17.26
126.6 83.33% 340.93 214.33 18.67
107.1 91.67% 340.93 233.83 19.50
106.7 100.00% 340.93 234.23
1013.73
Storage (Mm3) 2662.61
nd
ii) 2 option (Mass Curve/Ripple's Diagram/Sequent Peak Algorithm.)
Monthly Monthly Average Average Cumulative

Month Flow Volume Flow Volume Departure Departure
Jan 106.70 280.25 340.93 895.47 -615.22 -615.22
Feb 107.10 281.30 340.93 895.47 -614.17 -1229.39
Mar 148.20 389.26 340.93 895.47 -506.22 -1735.60
Apr 497.00 1305.40 340.93 895.47 409.93 -1325.68
May 1200.00 3151.87 340.93 895.47 2256.40 930.72
Jun 964.70 2533.84 340.93 895.47 1638.37 2569.09
Jul 338.60 889.35 340.93 895.47 -6.12 2562.97
Aug 177.60 466.48 340.93 895.47 -429.00 2133.97
Sep 141.00 370.34 340.93 895.47 -525.13 1608.85
Oct 141.00 370.34 340.93 895.47 -525.13 1083.72
Nov 142.70 374.81 340.93 895.47 -520.66 563.06
Dec 126.60 332.52 340.93 895.47 -562.95 0.11
ANS (Mm3) 2569.0
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6.2 Reservoirs and sediments
A river entering a water reservoir will loose its capacity to transport sediments. The water
velocity decreases, together with the shear stress on the bed. The sediments will therefore
deposit in the reservoir and decrease its volume.
In the design of dam, it is important to assess the magnitude of sediment deposition in the
reservoir. The problem can be divided I two parts:
1 How much sediments enter the reservoir
2 What is the trap efficiency of the reservoir
In a detailed study, the sediment size distributions also have to be determined for question
1. Question 2 may also involve determining the location of the deposits and the
concentration and grain size distribution of the sediments entering the water intakes.
In general, there are two approaches to the sedimentation problem:
1. The reservoir is constructed so large that it will take a very long time to fill. The
economic value of the project will thereby be maintained.
2. The reservoir is designed relatively small and the dam gates are constructed relatively
large, so that it is possible to remove the sediments regularly by flushing. The gates are
opened, lowering the water level in the reservoir, which increases the water velocity. The
sediment transport capacity is increased, causing erosion of the deposits.
A medium sized reservoir will be the least beneficial. Then it will take relatively short time
to fill the reservoir, and the size is so large that only a small part of the sediments are
removed by flushing.
The flushing has to be done while the water discharge in to the reservoir is relatively high.
The water will erode the deposits to a cross-stream magnitude similar to the normal width
of the river. A long and narrow reservoir will therefore be more effectively flushed than a
short and wide geometry. For the later, the sediment deposits may remain on the sides.
133
The flushing of a reservoir may be investigated by physical model studies.
Another question is the location of sediment deposits. Figure 5.5 shows a longitudinal
profile of the reservoir. There is a dead storage below the lowest level the water can be
withdrawn. This storage may be filled with sediments without affecting the operation of
the reservoir.
Figure 6-2 longitudinal profile of a reservoir.
HRW is the highest regulated water level. The reservoir volume below LRW is called the
dead storage, as this can be used.
6.2.1 Sediment Load Prediction

Rough estimates of sediment load may be taken from regional data. Often the sediment
yield in the area is known from neighboring catchments. It is then possible to assess the
seriousness of the erosion in the present catchment and estimate rough figures of sediment
yield. The land use, slope and size of the catchment are important factors.
For a more detailed assessment, measurements of the sediment concentration in the river
have to be used. Sediment concentrations are measured using standard sampling
techniques, and water discharges are recorded simultaneously. The measurements are
taken at varying water discharges. The values of water discharge and sediment
concentrations are plotted on a graph, and a rating curve is made. This is often on the form:
(6.1)
Qs is the sediment load, Qw is the water discharge and a and b are constants, obtained by
curve fitting
134
Figure 6-3 Example of sediment rating curve.
135
Chapter Seven
7 Basic Concepts of Stochastic Hydrology
7.1 Introduction
Stochastic hydrology describes the physical processes involved in the movement of water
onto, over, and through the soil surface. Quite often the hydrologic problems we face do
not require a detailed discussion of the physical process, but only a time series
representation of these processes. Stochastic models may be used to represent, in
simplified form, these hydrologic time series. Some background in probability and
statistics is necessary to fully understand this concept.
7.2 Time Series
The measurements or numerical values of any variable that changes with time constitute a
time series. In many instances, the pattern of changes can be ascribed to an obvious cause
and is readily understood and explained, but if there are several causes for variation in the
time series values, it becomes difficult to identify the several individual effects. In Fig. 5.1,
the top graph shows a series of observations changing with time along the abscissa; the
ordinate axis represents the changing values of y with time, t. From visual inspection of the
series, there are three discernible features in the pattern of the observations. Firstly, there is
a regular gradual overall increase in the size of values; this trend, plotted as a separate
component y1(t), indicates a linear increase in the average size of y with time. The second
obvious regular pattern in the composite series is a cyclical variation, represented
separately by y2(t), the periodic component. The third notable feature of the series may be
considered the most outstanding, the single high peak half way along the series. This
typically results from a rare catastrophic event which does not from part of a recognizable
pattern. The definition of the function y3(t) needs very careful consideration and may not
be possible. The remaining hidden feature of the series is the random stochastic
component, y4(t), which represents an irregular but continuing variation within the
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measured values and may have some persistence. It may be due to instrumental of
observational sampling errors or it may come from random unexplainable fluctuations in a
natural physical process. A time series is said to be a random or stochastic process if it
contains a stochastic component. Therefore, most hydrologic time series may be thought of
as stochastic processes since they contain both deterministic and stochastic components. If
a time series contains only random/stochastic component is said to be a purely random or
stochastic process.
The complete observed series, y(t), can therefore be expressed by:
y(t) = y1(t) + y2(t) + y3(t) + y4(t) (7.1)
The first two terms are deterministic in form and can be identified and quantified fairly
easily; the last two are stochastic with major random elements, and some minor persistence
effects, less easily identified and quantified.
Figure 7.1: The time series components
137
7.3 Properties of Time Series
The purpose of a stochastic model is to represent important statistical properties of one or

more time series. Indeed, different types of stochastic models are often studied in terms of
the statistical properties of time series they generate. Examples of these properties include:
trend, serial correlation, covariance, cross-correlation, etc. Therefore, before reviewing the
different types of stochastic models used in hydrology, some distribution properties of
stochastic processes need to be discussed. The following basic statistics are usually used
for expressing the properties/characteristics of a time series.
(7.2)
(7.3)
Stationary time series:
If the statistics of the sample (mean, variance, covariance, etc.) as calculated by equations
(5.2)-(5.4) are not functions of the timing or the length of the sample, then the time series
is said to be stationary to the second order moment, weekly stationary, or stationary in the
broad sense. Mathematically one can write as:
(7.4)
In hydrology, moments of the third and higher orders are rarely considered because of the
unreliability of their estimates. Second order stationarity, also called covariance
stationarity, is usually sufficient in hydrology. A process is strictly stationary when the
distribution of Xt does not depend on time and when all simultaneous distributions of the
random variables of the process are only dependent on their mutual time-lag. In another
138
words, a process is said to be strictly stationary if its n-th (n for any integers) order
moments do not depend on time and are dependent only on their time lag.
Non-stationary time series:
If the values of the statistics of the sample (mean, variance, covariance, etc.) as calculated
by equations (5.2)-(5.4) are dependent on the timing or the length of the sample, i.e. if a
definite trend is discernible in the series, then it is a nonstationary series. Similarly,
periodicity in a series means that it is non-stationary. Mathematically one can write as:
White noise time series:
For a stationary ties series, if the process is purely random and stochastically independent,
the time series is called a white noise series. Mathematically one can write as:
Gaussian time series:
A Gaussian random process is a process (not necessarily stationary) of which all random
variables are normally distributed, and of which all simultaneous distributions of random
variables of the process are normal. When a Gaussian random process is weekly stationary,
it is also strictly stationary, since the normal distribution is completely characterized by its
first and second order moments.
7.4 Analysis of Hydrologic Time Series
Records of rainfall and river flow form suitable data sequences that can be studied by the
methods of time series analysis. The tools of this specialized topic in mathematical
139
statistics provide valuable assistance to engineers in solving problems involving the

frequency of occurrences of major hydrological events. In particular, when only a
relatively short data record is available, the formulation of a time series model of those
data can enable long sequences of comparable data to be generated to provide the basis for
better estimates of hydrological behavior. In addition, the time series analysis of rainfall,
evaporation, runoff and other sequential records of hydrological variables can assist in the
evaluation of any irregularities in those records. Cross-correlation of different hydrological
time series may help in the understanding of hydrological processes.
Tasks of time series analysis include:
(1) Identification of the several components of a time series.
(2) Mathematical description (modelling) different components identified.
If a hydrological time series is represented by X1, X2, X3, ..., Xt, ..., then symbolically,
one can represent the structure of the Xt by:
Where Tt is the trend component, Pt is the periodic component and Et is the stochastic
component. The first two components are specific deterministic features and contain no
element of randomness. The third, stochastic, component contains both random
fluctuations and the self-correlated persistence within the data series. These three
components form a basic model for time series analysis.
The aims of time series analysis include but not limited to:
(1) Description and understanding of the mechanism,
(2) Monte-Carlo simulation,
(3) Forecasting future evolution,
140
Basic to stochastic analysis is the assumption that the process is stationary. The modelling
of a time series is much easier if it is stationary, so identification, quantification and
removal of any non-stationary components in a data series is under-taken, leaving a
stationary series to be modelled.
7.1.1 Trend component

This may be caused by long-term climatic change or, in river flow, by gradual changes in a
catchment's response to rainfall owing to land use changes. Sometimes, the presence of a
trend cannot be readily identified.
Methods of trend identification:
Different statistical methods, both nonparametric tests and parametric tests, for
identifying trend in time-series are available in the literature. Two commonly used
methods for identifying the trend are discussed briefly in this section.
(1) Mann-Kendall test
The test uses the raw (un-smoothed) hydrologic data to detect possible trends. The Kendall
statistic was originally devised by Mann (1945) as a non-parametric test for trend. Later
the exact distribution of the test statistic was derived by Kendall (1975). The Mann-
Kendall test is based on the test statistic S defined as follows:
(7.5)
Where the Xj are the sequential data values, n is the length of the data set, and
(7.6)
Mann (1945) and Kendall (1975) have documented that when, the statistic S is
approximately normally distributed with the mean and the variance as follows:
141
(7.7)
Where n = number of data
tp = the number of ties for the pth value (number of data in the pth group)
q = the number of tied values (number of groups with equal values/ties)
The standardized Mann-Kendall test statistic ZMK is computed by
(7.9)
The standardized MK statistic Z follows the standard normal distribution with
mean of zero and variance of one.
The hypothesis that there has not trend will be rejected if
(7.10)
Where Z 1−α / 2 is the value read from a standard normal distribution table with α
being the significance level of the test.
(2) Linear regression method
Linear regression method can be used to identify if there exists a linear trend in
a hydrologic time series. The procedure consists of two steps, fitting a linear
regression equation with the time T as independent variable and the hydrologic
142
data, Y as dependent variable, i.e.
Y = α + β.T (7.11)
and testing the statistical significance of the regression coefficient β.
Test of hypothesis concerning β can be made by noting that (β – β0)/Sβ has t
distribution with n-2 degrees of freedom. Thus the hypothesis H0: β = β0 versus
H0: β ≠ β0 is tested by computing
(7.12)
and
(7.14)
Where S is the standard error of the regression, Yi and are observed and estimated
hydrologic variable from the regression equation, respectively.
The hypothesis, i.e. no trend, is rejected if
Models for trend:
The shape of the trend depends on the background of the phenomenon studied. Any
smooth trend that is discernible may be quantified and then subtracted from the sample
series. Common models for trend may take the following forms:
Tt = a + bt (a linear trend, as in Fig. 5.1) (7.15)
143
or
Tt = a + bt + ct2 + dt3 + ... (a non-linear trend) (7.16)
The coefficients a, b, c, d ... are usually evaluated by least-squares fitting. The number of
terms required in a polynomial trend being primarily imposed by the interpretation of the
studied phenomenon. The number of terms is usually based on statistical analysis, which
determines the terms contributing significantly to the description and the interpretation of
the time series. Restriction is made to the significant terms because of the principle of
parsimony concerning the number of unknown parameters (constants) used in the model.
One wishes to use as small a number of parameters as possible, because in most cases the
addition of a complementary parameter decreases the accuracy of the other parameters.
Also prediction- and control procedures are negatively influenced by an exaggerated
number of parameters. This principle of parsimony is not only important with respect to
the selection of the trend function but also with respect to other parts of the model.
7.1.2 Periodic component

In most annual series of data, there is no cyclical variation in the annual observations, but
in the sequences of monthly data distinct periodic seasonal effects are at once apparent.
The existence of periodic components may be investigated quantitatively by (1) Fourier
analysis, (2) spectral analysis, and (3) autocorrelation analysis. Of which, the
autocorrelation analysis method is widely used by hydrologists and will be discussed
briefly in this section.
Identification of periodic component by autocorrelation analysis:
The procedure consists of two steps, calculating the autocorrelation coefficients and testing
their statistical significance. For a series of data, Xt, the autocorrelation coefficient rL
between Xt and Xt+L are calculated and plotted against values of L (known as the lag), for
all pairs of data L time units apart in the series:
144
(7.17)
Where is the mean of the sample of n values of Xt and L is usually taken for values
from zero up to n/4. A plot of rL versus L forms the correlogram. The characteristics of a
time series can be seen from the correlogram. Examples of correlograms are given in Fig
54.2. Calculation of equation (7.17) for different L gives the following cases:
• If L = 0, rL = 1. That is, the correlation of an observation with itself is one.
• If rL ≈ 0 for all L ≠ 0, the process is said to be a purely random process. This indicates
that the observations are linearly independent of each other. The correlogram for such a
complete random time series is shown in Fig 5.2(a).
• If rL ≠ 0 for some L ≠ 0, but after L > τ, then , the time series is still referred to as simply
a random one (not purely random) since it has a ‘memory’ up to L = τ. When τ r , the
process is said to have no memory for what occurred prior to time t-τ. The correlogram for
such a non-independent stochastic process is shown in Fig 5.2(b). This is representative of
an
auto regressive process. Typically, such a correlogram could be produced from a series
described by the Autoregressive model:
Xt = a1Xt-1 + a2Xt-2 +a3Xt-3 + … + εt

(7.18)
where ai are related to the autocorrelation coefficients ri and εt is a random independent

element.
• In the case of data containing a cyclic (deterministic) component, then rL ≠ 0 for all L ≠
0, the correlogram would appear as in Fig. 7.2(c). Where T is the period of the cycle.
145
Figure 7-1 Examples of Correlograms
Modeling of periodic component:
A periodic function Pt is a function such that
Pt+T = Pt for all t
The smallest value of T is called the period. The dimension of T is time, T thus being a
number of time-units (years, months, days or hours, etc.) and we also have
Pt+nT = Pt for all t and for all integer n.
The frequency is defined as the number of periods per time-unit:
Trigonometric functions are simple periodic functions. For example, α sin (ωt + β) has a
period of 2π/ω, because α sin [ω(t+2π/ω)+β] = α sin(ωt+2π+β) = α sin(ωt + β)
The pulsation or angular frequency is defined as
146
The constant α is termed the amplitude and β the phase (with respect to the origin) of the
sine-function.
A simple model for the periodic component may be defined as (for more
discussions refer to the literature of Time Series Analysis):
Pt = m + Csin(2πt/T) (7.19)
Where C is the amplitude of the sine wave about a level m and of wavelength T.
The serial (auto) correlation coefficients for such a Pt are given by:
rL = cos (2πL/T) (7.20)
The cosine curve repeats every T time units throughout the correlogram with
rL= 1 for L = 0, T, 2T, 3T,… Thus periodicities in a time series are exposed by regular
cycles in the corresponding correlograms.
Once the significant periodicities, Pt, have been identified and quantified by μt (the means)
and σt (the standard deviations) they can be removed from the original times series along
with any trend, Tt, so that a new series of data, Et, is formed:
(7.21)
Simple models for periodic component in hydrology can be seen in the literature. For
example, in many regions, typical monthly potential evapotranspiration variation during
the year can be modelled more or less by a sinusoidal function, with a couple of parameters
to tune the annual mean and the amplitude (Xu and Vandewiele, 1995).
This behavior leads to the idea to model by a truncated Fourier series:
ept = {a + bsin[(2π /12)(t-c)]}+
147
where again t is time in month. The plus sign at the end is necessary for avoiding negative
values of ep which otherwise may occur in rare cases. Again parameters a, b and c are
characteristics of the basin.
7.1.3 Stochastic component

Et represents the remaining stochastic component of the time series free from non-
stationary trend and periodicity and usually taken to be sufficiently stationary for the next
stage in simple time series analysis. This Et component is analysed to explain and quantify
any persistence (serial (auto) correlation) in the data and any residual independent
randomness. It is first standardized by:
(7.22)
and sE are the mean and standard deviation of the Et series. The series, Zt, then has zero
mean and unit standard deviation. The autocorrelation coefficients of Zt are calculated and
the resultant correlogram is examined for evidence and recognition of a correlation and/or
random structure.
For example, in Fig. 5.3a for a monthly flow, the correlogram of the Zt stationary series
(with the periodicities removed) has distinctive features that can be recognized. Comparing
it with Fig. 5.2, the Zt correlogram resembles that of an auto regressive (Markov) process.
For a first order Markov model:
(7.23)
Where r1 is the autocorrelation coefficient of lag 1 of the Zt series and et is a random
independent residual. A series of the residuals et may then be formed from the Zt series
and its known lag 1 autocorrelation coefficient, r1:
(7.24)
The correlogram of residuals is finally computed and drawn (Fig.7.3b). For this data this
resembles the correlogram of 'white noise', i.e. independently distributed random values. If
148
there are still signs of autoregression in the et correlogram, a second-order Markov model
is tried, and the order is increased until a random et correlogram is obtained. The frequency
distribution diagram of the first order et values (Fig. 7.3c) demonstrates an approximate
approach to the normal (Gussian) distribution.
At this stage, the final definition of the recognizable components of the time series has
been accomplished including the distribution of the random residuals. As part of the
analysis, the fitted models should be tested by the accepted statistical methods applied to
times series. Once the models have been formulated and quantified to satisfactory
confidence limits, the total mathematical representation of the time series can be used for
solving hydrological problems by synthesizing non-historic data series having the same
statistical properties as the original data series.
Figure 7-2 River Thames at Teddington Weirs ( 82 years of monthly flows, from
7.2 Time Series Synthesis
The production of a synthetic data series simply reverses the procedure of the time series
analysis. First, for as many data items as are required, a comparable sequence of random
149
numbers, drawn from the et distribution, is generated using a standard computer package.
Second, the corresponding synthetic Zt values are recursively calculated using equation
7.23 (starting the series with the last value of the historic Zt series as the Zt-1 value).
Third, the Et series then derives from equation 7.22 in reverse:
(7.25)
The periodic component Pt represented by mt and st for time period t is then added to the
Et values to give:
(7.26)
The incorporation of the trend component Tt then produces a synthetic series of Xt having
similar statistical properties to the historic data series.
7.3 Some Stochastic Models
Ultimately design decisions must be based on a stochastic model or a combination of

stochastic and deterministic models. This is because any system must be designed to
operate in the future. Deterministic models are not available for generating future
watershed inputs in the form of precipitation, solar radiation, etc., nor is it likely that
deterministic models for these inputs will be available in the near future. Stochastic models
must be used for these inputs.
7.3.1 Purely random stochastic models

Possibly the simplest stochastic process to model is where the events can be assumed to
occur at discrete times with the time between events constants, the events at any time are
independent of the events at any other time, and the probability distribution of the event is
known. Stochastic generation from a model of this type merely amounts to generating a
sample of random observations from a univariate probability distribution. For example,
random observations for any normal distribution can be generated from the relationship,
150
y = σRN + μ (5.27)
Where RN is a standard random normal deviate (i.e. a random observation from a standard
normal distribution) and μ and σ are the parameters of the desired normal distribution of y.
Computer routines are available for generating standard random normal distribution.
7.3.2 Autoregressive models

Where persistence is present, synthetic sequences cannot be constructed by taking a
succession of sample values from a probability distribution, since this will not take account
of the relation between each number of sequences and those preceding it. Consider a
second order stationary time series, such as an annual time series, made up of a
deterministic part and a random part. The deterministic part is selected so as to reflect the
persistence effect, while it is assumed that the random part has a zero mean and a constant
variance. One
of the models to simulate such a series is the Autoregressive model. The general form of an
autoregressive model is:
(7.28)
Where μ is mean value of the series, β is the regression coefficient, the {y1, y2, …, yt,…}
is the observed sequence and the random variables εt are usually assumed to be normally
and independently distributed with zero mean and variance . In order to determining the
order k of autoregression required to describe the persistence adequately, it is necessary to
estimate k+2 parameters: β1, β2, …βk, μ and the variance of residuals . Efficient methods
for estimating these parameters have been described by Kendall and Stuart (1968), Jenkins
and Watts (1968).
The first order auto regression:
(7.29)
has found particular application in hydrology. When equation (7.29) is used to model
annual discharge series, the model states that the value of y in one time period is dependent
151
only on the value of y in the preceding time period plus a random component. It is also
assumed that εt is independent of yt. Equation (7.29) is the well-known first order Markov
Model in the literature. It has three parameters to be estimated: μ, β1, and 2E σ .
For the moment method of parameter estimation, parameter μ can be computed from the
time series as the arithmetic mean of the observed data. As for β1, the Yule-Walker
equation (Delleur, 1991) shows that:
(7.30)
the above equation, written for k = 1, 2, …, yields a set of equations. Where ρk is the
autocorrelation coefficient for time lag k. As the autocorrelation coefficients ρ1, ρ2, …,
can be estimated from the data using equation (4.17), these equations can be solved for the
autoregressive parameters β1, β2, …, βp. This is the estimation of parameters by the
method of moments. For example, for the first order autoregressive model, AR(1), the
Yule-Walker equations yield
(7.31)
Similarly we can derive the equations for computing β1 and β2 for the AR(2) model as
(7.32)
(7.33)
(7.34)
152
Eq. (7.34)
Eq. (7.34) has been widely used for generating annual runoff from watersheds.
7.3.3 First order Markov process with periodicity: Thomas – Fiering model
The first order Markov model of the previous section assumes that the process is stationary
in its first three moments. It is possible to generalise the model so that the periodicity in
hydrologic data is accounted for to some extent. The main application of this
generalisation has been in generating monthly streamflow where pronounced seasonality in
the monthly flows exists. In its simplest form, the method consists of the use of twelve
linear regression equations. If, say, twelve years of record are available, the twelve January
flows and the twelve December flows are abstracted and January flow is regressed upon
December flow; similarly, February flow is regressed upon January flow, and so on for
each month of the year.
Fig.4.4 shows a regression analysis of qj+1 on qj, pairs of successive monthly flows for the
months (j+1) and j over the years of record where j = 1, 2, 3, ..., 12 (Jan, Feb, ... Dec) and
when j = 12, j+1 = 1 = Jan (there would be 12 such regressions). If the regression
153
coefficient of month j+1 on j is bj, then the regression line values of a monthly flow, 1 ^ y
j+ , can be determined from the previous months flow qj, by the equation:
(7.35)
To account for the variability in the plotted points about the regression line reflecting the
variance of the measured data about the regression line, a further component is added:
where is the standard deviation of the flows in month j+1, rj is the correlation coefficient
between flows in months j+1 and j throughout the record, and Z =N(0, 1), a normally
distributed random deviate with zero mean and unit standard deviation. The general form
may written as
(7.36)
Whereb j = r j * S j +1 / S j , there are 36 parameters for the monthly model (q, for each
month). The subscript j refers to month. For monthly synthesis j varies from 1 to 12
throughout the year. The subscript i is a serial designation from year 1 to year n. Other
symbols are the same as mentioned earlier.
Figure 7-3 Thomas-Fiering model
154
7.4 The Uses of Stochastic Models
(1) To make predictions of frequencies of extreme events
Stochastic models have been used to make predictions about the frequency of
occurrence of certain extreme events of interest to the hydrologist. Models such as
that given by equation (5.29) are selected, and the residual is taken to be random
variable with probability distribution whose parameters are specified. The
parameters are estimated from data; so-called "synthetic" sequence {yt} can then be
constructed, and the frequency with which the extreme event occurs in them can be
taken as an estimate of the "true" frequency with which it would occur in the long
run.
(2) For the investigation of system operating rules
A further use for synthetic sequences generated by stochastic models is in reservoir

operation, such as the investigation of the suitability of proposed operating rules for
the release of water from complex systems of interconnected reservoirs. By using
the generated sequence as inputs to the reservoir system operated according to the
proposed rules, the frequency with which demands fail to be met can be estimated.
This may lead to revision of the proposed release rules; the modified rules may be
tested by a similar procedure.
(3) To provide short-term forecasts
Stochastic models have been used to make forecasts. Given the values xt, xt-1, xt-2,
...; yt, yt-1, yt-2, ... assumed by the input and output variables up to time t,
stochastic models have been constructed from this data for forecasting the output
from the system at future times, t+1, t+2, ..., t+k, .... In statistical terminology, k is
the lead-time of the forecast. Many stochastic models have a particular advantage
for forecasting purposes in that they provide, as a byproduct of the procedure for
estimating model parameters, confidence limits for forecasts (i.e. a pair of values,
155
one less than the forecast and one greater, such that there is a given probability P
that these values will bracket the observed value of the variable at time t+k).
Confidence limits therefore express the uncertainty in forecasts; the wider apart the
confidence limits, the less reliable the forecast. Furthermore, the greater the lead-
time k for which forecasts is required, the greater will be the width of the
confidence interval, since the distant future is more uncertain than the immediate.
(4) To "extend" records of short duration, by correlation
Stochastic models have been used to "extend" records of basin discharge where this
record is short. For example, suppose that it is required to estimate the
instantaneous peak discharge with a return period of T years (i.e. such that it would
recur with frequency once in T years, in the long run). One approach to this
problem is to examine the discharge record at the site for which the estimate is
required, to abstract the maximum instantaneous discharge for each year of record ,
and to represent the distribution of annual maximum instantaneous discharge by a
suitable probability density function. The abscissa, Yo, say, that is exceeded by a
proportion 1/T of the distribution then estimates the T-year flood. It, however,
frequently happens that the length of discharge record available is short, say ten
years or fewer. On the other hand, a much longer record of discharge may be
available for another gauging site, such that the peak discharges at the two sites are
correlated. In certain circumstances, it is then permissible to represent the relation
between the annual maximum discharges at the two sites by a regression equation
and to use this fitted equation to estimate the annual maximum instantaneous
discharges for the site with short record.
(5) To provide synthetic sequences of basin input
Suppose that the model has been developed for a system consisting of a basin with
rainfall as input variable, streamflow as output variable. If a stochastic model were
developed from which a synthetic sequence of rainfall could be generated having
statistical properties resembling those of the historic rainfall sequence, the synthetic
156
rainfall sequence could be used as input to the main model for transformation to the
synthetic discharge sequence. The discharge so derived could then be examined for
the frequency of extreme events. This approach to the study of the frequency of
extreme discharge events is essentially an alternative to that described in paragraph
(1) above. In the latter, a synthetic sequence is derived from a stochastic model of
the discharge alone; in the former, a synthetic discharge sequence is derived by
using a model to convert a synthetic sequence of rainfall into discharge.
157
Chapter Eight
8 Introduction to Urban Hydrology
Storm magnitudes and their frequency of occurrence are of greater importance than annual
rainfall totals in urban hydrology.
8.1 Catchment Response Modifications
The changes made to a rural area by the construction of a concentration of building have a
direct effect on its surface hydrology. The covering of the land surface by a large
proportion of impervious materials means that a much larger proportion of any rainfall
forms immediate runoff. In addition to extensive ground coverage by building in a city, the
paved streets and car parks contribute large areas to the impervious surface. Any slope of
the land also greatly enhances the runoff response of a paved area. In a defined catchment
area, the effect on the stream discharge is dependent on the extent on the remaining
pervious surfaces, where normal infiltration in to the soil and percolation in to the
underlying strata can take place. Thus, after major urban development in a catchment, the
following differences in the river flow from that of an equivalent rural catchment can be
identified.
a) There is a higher proportion of rainfall appearing as surface runoff, and so the

total volume of discharge is increased
b) For a specific rainfall event, the response of the catchment is accelerated, with
a steeper rising limb of the flow hydrograph; the lag time and time to peak is
reduced
c) Flood peak magnitudes are increased, but for the very, but for the very extreme
events (when the rural runoff coefficient > 50%) these increase in urban areas
are diminished
158
d) In times of low flows, discharges are decreased since there is reduced

contribution from the groundwater storage that has received less
replenishment; and
e) Water quality in streams and rivers draining urban area is degraded by effluent
discharges, increased water temperature and danger from other forms of
pollution
Many of these modifications are promoted by structural changes made to drainage

channels. It is essential to remove rain water quickly from developed areas, and surface
water drainage systems are included in modern town extensions.
8.2 Urban development planning
In the development of new urban centers, hydrological knowledge of the areas is required
at two stages. The first is planning stage when the general layout of the new town is being
decided. The second stage of hydrological involvement occurs at the detailing stage, the
designing of storm water drainage channels and pipes to carry the surface water in to the
rivers.
The principal objective at the planning stage is the determination of the size of flood, with
its related return period, that the developing authority is prepared to accommodate. The
design of the drainage system is dependent on a satisfactory assessment of the flood
magnitude-return period relationship and the subsequent choice of a design flood.
8.3 Drainage design
Once the broad outline of the hydrological consequences of an urban development of an

area have been determined at the planning stage and major remedial works considered,
then the detailed design of the drainage systems is required. The engineering hydrologist is
fully concerned with evaluating the runoff from sub areas to be drained in order to design
159
the necessary storm water sewers. The peak runoff from the selected design storm
determines the
size sewer pipe which is dependent on the extent of each sub area to be drained. At the
head of the catchment sub area, the required pipe size may be quite small, but downstream,
as the sewer receives water from a growing are through a series of junctions, the pipe size
gradually needs to be increased.
The problem of estimating the runoff from the storm rainfall is very much dependent on
the character of the catchment surface. The degree of urbanization (extent of impervious
area) greatly affects the volume of runoff obtained from a given rainfall. Retention of
rainfall by initial wetting of surfaces and absorption by vegetation and pervious areas
reduces the amount of storm runoff. These surface conditions also affect the time
distribution of the runoff. Thus the computational method used to obtain the runoff from
the rainfall should allow for the characteristics of the surface are to be drained.
8.3.1 Impervious areas
These comprises the roof areas and large expanses of paved surfaces of city centers and
industrial sites, in which there is very little or even no part of the ground surface into
which rainfall could infiltrate. The calculation of the runoff from these relatively small
catchments is the straightest forward, since the area can be easily defined and measured.
Over such limited areas, the storm rainfall can be assumed to be uniformly distributed with
100% runoff occurring.
The response of the impervious surface is rapid, resulting in a short time of concentration
of the flow in the drainage system. The rational formula can thus provide the peak
drainage.
(8.1)
Looking the simple pipe design in the figure below, the computation of the required pipe
size can be done as shown in the table below.
160
Figure 8-1 Simple Pipe Design
Table 10 Rational method Drainage Design
At the outset of the design procedure, the selected return period for a design storm will
have been decided. Storm water sewers are usually designed for 1 in 1, 1 in 2 or 1 in 5 year
storm return periods. The type of pipe will also have been chosen; the internal roughness
governs the flow characteristics, and roughness coefficient. Velocities and discharges for
standard sized pipes can be found from published tables, assuming full bore conditions, a
hydraulic gradient equal to the pipe gradient and appropriate roughness coefficient. Design
charts for the velocities and discharges are also available and provide for easier
interpolation.
161
Flows larger than those derived from the tables or charts would require hydraulic gradients
greater than the pipe gradient, and these could only occur by ponding (or surcharging) of
water in the manholes at the pipe junctions. The design objective is to avoid such
surcharging.
Referring to Figure 8.1, the design procedure begins with the choice of a trial pipe size for
pipe 1.0, say 150 mm is chosen (the smallest used in practice) (Refer Table 8.1). From
published tables and for ks = 0.6 for a normal concrete pipe, the velocity and discharge for
a gradient of 1 in 65 are noted, 1.26 m/s and 23.0 l/s, respectively. A flow greater than 23.0
l/s would result in surcharging.
The time of flow along the pipe is next calculated from the velocity and length of pipe and
comes to 0.86 min. the time of concentration at the end of the first pipe is then 0.86 min
plus an assumed allowance of 2 min, for the time of entry, which is assumed to cover the
lag time between the beginning of the storm rainfall and the entry of the overland flow in
to the leading manhole. With the time of concentration of the drainage to the end of the
first pipe known, the design return period rainfall intensity (i) over this duration to give the
peak flow can be obtained from intensity-duration-frequency data. The storm peak
discharge is then calculated using equation mentioned in the previous section for
comparison with the unsurcharged full bore pipe flow. The first trial pipe of 150 mm
diameter would clearly be surcharged, so the calculations are repeated with the next size
pipe, diameter 225 mm. the calculated storm discharge, 28.8 l/s would be easily contained
by larger pipe.
The calculations proceed for each pipe in turn, with the previous time of concentration
being added to the new time of flow to give the combined times of concentration at the end
of sequential pipes. The drainage areas are also accumulated. It will be noted that the 2.0
min time of entry is also added to the flow time of pipe 2.0 since it is at the start of a
branch of pipeline. The time of concentration for the last pipe, is then the sum of the time
of concentration of pipe 1.1 and the flow time of pipe 1.2. the extra contribution from the
162
greatly increased area drained by the tributary pipe results in a much larger discharge
requiring the next size larger pipe, 300 mm diameter.
8.4 The Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
Hydrograph Method (Watkins, 1962)
In the time-area method, the total catchment area is deemed to be contributing to the flow
after the time of concentration, Tc, the time it takes for the rain on the furthest part of the
catchment to reach the outfall. Thus in Figure 8.2, for two drains receiving uniform rainfall
from areas A1 and A2 with drain 2 joining the main channel, drain 1, a relationship of
contributing area, A, versus time, T, is constructed. From the beginning of the flow in
drain 1 at T=0 there is steady increase in area contributing until T = T1 which is the value
of Tc for area A1. Drain 2 begins to contribute to the outfall flow Tc at time T = (T2+T3).
Between times T3 and T1 both drains have been flowing and the joint contributing area (at
C) at T = T1 is given by:
(8.2)
From T = (T2+T3), both areas are contributing fully. The time-area curve for the combined
drains is composite line OBCD. The principle of TRRL as outlined as in demand curve, a
catchment is divided into four sub areas, is drained by a single channel to the outfall where
the hydrograph is required. Subarea 1 begins contributing to the flow first, to be followed
sequentially by the other three subareas. The composite time-area curve for the whole
catchment is drawn by summing the subarea contributions at regular time intervals. The
incremental contributing areas after each time interval are then read from the composite
curve, a1, a2, a3, etc. from the diagram, the time of concentration for the whole area is
determined.
The effective rainfall intensity is computed for each of the chosen time unit intervals from
gauge measurements. The discharge rates after each time unit interval are given by:
163
q1 = i1a1
q2 = i2a1 + i1a2
q3 = i3a1 + i2a2 + i1a3 (8.3)

etc.....
The peak flow is then considered as design flow.
Figure 8-2 Time-area method for sewer design
164
References
Elizabeth M.Shaw, hydrology in Practice, Third edition, 1994.
Elizabeth M.Shaw, hydrology in Practice, second edition, 1988.
K.subramanya, Engineering hydrology, India institute of technology, Kanpur, 1982
Butter,S.C, Engineering hydrology,prentice-Hall-INC,USA,1957.
165

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HYDROLOGY MODULE (HENG-M3144)

COURSE CODE (HEng– 3143)

COURSE SEQUENCE 3rd

WRITER: ASSEFA G/HER ( MSc.)

REVIEWERS: 1. HASSEN HUSSEN ( BSc.)

2. WOZADER WOLDIE ( BSc.)

After completion of this course students will be able to

Lecture Tutorial Practice or Laboratory Home study

Learning guide /strategies for students

3.3.5.1 Gumbel’s Method ..................................................................................... 58

3.3.5.2 Confidence Limits for the fitted data ......................................................... 62

3.3.5.3 Log-Pearson Type III Distribution ............................................................................................ 64

Figure 2-1 Classification of hydrological models according to process description ....................... 11

Figure 2-2 Example of IDF Curve.................................................................................................. 18

Figure 2-3 Time area method ...................................................................................................... 29

Figure 2-4 Runoff Hydrograph2.9.1 Hydrograph Analysis ............................................................ 31

Figure 2-5 Runoff hydrograph ..................................................................................................... 32

Figure 2-6 Base flow separation .................................................................................................. 36

Figure 2-8 Conversion from u(1,t) to u(3,t)2.11.4 S-curve: ........................................................... 40

Figure 2-9 S-curve derivation ..................................................................................................... 41

Figure 2-11Basin characteristics .................................................................................................. 44

Figure 2-12 Element of synthetic unit hydrograph ....................................................................... 44

Figure 2-14 Unit hydrograph of different duration ...................................................................... 48

Figure 2-15Dimensionless SCS unit hydrograph ........................................................................... 49

Figure 3-1 Flow Duration Curve .................................................................................................. 52

Figure 3-3-2 Sequence of drought impacts .................................................................................. 76

Figure 4-1 Flood translation and attenuation .............................................................................. 81

Figure 4-2 Peak stage relationship............................................................................................... 82

Figure 4-3 Flood Peak travel time ................................................................................................ 82

Figure 4-4 Storage routing .......................................................................................................... 85

Figure 4-6 Determining storage in a river reach ........................................................................... 88

Figure 4-7 Trial plots for Muskingum X values ............................................................................. 90

Figure 5-1 Basin Characteristics................................................................................................... 96

Figure 5-2 Elements of synthetic unit hydrograph ....................................................................... 98

Figure 5-7 Parametric flow duration curves ................................................................................113

Figure 6-0-1 a) Mass curve .........................................................................................................127

Figure 6-0-2 longitudinal profile of a reservoir............................................................................134

Figure 6-0-3 Example of sediment rating curve. .........................................................................135

Figure 7-3 Thomas-Fiering model ...............................................................................................154

Figure 8-1 Simple Pipe Design ....................................................................................................161

Figure 8-2 Time-area method for sewer design ..........................................................................164

Table 3 Factors affecting flood hydrograph ................................................................................. 34

Table 4 Plotting-position formulae .............................................................................................. 55

Table 5 Calculation of Frequency T .............................................................................................. 55

Table 7 Reduced standard deviation Sn in Gumbel's extreme value distribution,......................... 62

Table 8 Kz=F(Cs,T) for use in Log-Pearson Type III Distribution .................................................... 65

Table 9 Tabular computation of level pool routing ...................................................................... 87

Table 11 Rational method Drainage Design ................................................................................161

Hydrological studies require extensive analysis of meteorological, hydrological and spatial

The uncertainties associated with a value of regional precipitation consist of:

1.2 Meteorological data

1.2.1 Principles of Data Analysis

Where: Px = The missing precipitation record P1, P2 , …, Pm = Precipitation records at

Where: Nx = Annual-average precipitation at the gage with missing values N1 , N2 , …,

Nm = Annual average precipitation at neighboring gauges

c) Checking the Consistency of Point Measurements

precipitation collected at a gauge where measurement conditions may have changed

1.2.2 Areal Estimation

area can be considered effectively by this method.