Sigar 21 46 LL

SIGAR | WHAT WE NEED TO LEARN | AUGUST 2021
WASTE, FRAUD, OR ABUSE MAY BE REPORTED TO SIGAR’S HOTLINE
By phone: Afghanistan
Cell: 0700107300
DSN: 318-237-3912 ext. 7303
All voicemail is in Dari, Pashto, and English.
WHAT WE NEED TO LEARN:
LESSONS FROM TWENTY YEARS OF
By phone: United States
Toll-free: 866-329-8893
DSN: 312-664-0378
AFGHANISTAN RECONSTRUCTION
All voicemail is in English and answered during business hours.
By fax: 703-601-4065
By email: sigar.hotline@mail.mil
By web submission: www.sigar.mil/investigations/hotline/report-fraud.aspx
SIGAR 21-46-LL
SIGAR
SPECIAL INSPECTOR GENERAL
FOR AFGHANISTAN RECONSTRUCTION
2530 Crystal Drive

Arlington, VA 22202
www.sigar.mil
August 2021
The National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2008 (P.L. 110-181)
established the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan
Reconstruction (SIGAR).
SIGAR’s oversight mission, as defined by the legislation, is to provide for the
independent and objective
• conduct and supervision of audits and investigations relating to the programs
and operations funded with amounts appropriated or otherwise made available
for the reconstruction of Afghanistan.
• leadership and coordination of, and recommendations on, policies designed
to promote economy, efficiency, and effectiveness in the administration of the
programs and operations, and to prevent and detect waste, fraud, and abuse
in such programs and operations.
• means of keeping the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense fully
and currently informed about problems and deficiencies relating to the
administration of such programs and operation and the necessity for and
progress on corrective action.
Afghanistan reconstruction includes any major contract, grant, agreement,

or other funding mechanism entered into by any department or agency of the
U.S. government that involves the use of amounts appropriated or otherwise made
available for the reconstruction of Afghanistan.
Source: P.L. 110-181, “National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2008,” 1/28/2008.
JOWZJAN KUNDUZ BADAKHSHAN
BALKH TAKHAR
SAMANGAN
FARYAB BAGHLAN
SAR-E PUL
PANJSHIR NURISTAN
BADGHIS
PARWAN KAPISA KUNAR
BAMYAN LAGHMAN
HERAT KABUL
WARDAK
NANGARHAR
GHOR LOGAR
DAYKUNDI PAKTIYA
GHAZNI KHOST
URUZGAN
FARAH
PAKTIKA
ZABUL
NIMROZ
HELMAND
KANDAHAR Provinces where SIGAR has conducted
or commissioned audit, inspection,
special project, and/or investigation
work as of July 31, 2021.
Cover photo credit:

Afghan army commandos stand on a sand bank as a U.S. Army Apache helicopter flies above in Marjah’s
Balakino Bazar neighborhood, on February 24, 2010. (AFP photo by Patrick Baz)
LETTER FROM THE INSPECTOR GENERAL
Special Inspector General

for Afghanistan Reconstruction
What We Need to Learn: Lessons from Twenty Years of Afghanistan Reconstruction is

the 11th lessons learned report issued by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan
Reconstruction. The report examines the past two decades of the U.S. reconstruction effort
in Afghanistan. It details how the U.S. government struggled to develop a coherent strategy,
understand how long the reconstruction mission would take, ensure its projects were
sustainable, staff the mission with trained professionals, account for the challenges posed
by insecurity, tailor efforts to the Afghan context, and understand the impact of programs.
There have been bright spots—such as lower child mortality rates, increases in per capita
GDP, and increased literacy rates. But after spending 20 years and $145 billion trying to rebuild
Afghanistan, the U.S. government has many lessons it needs to learn. Implementing these
critical lessons will save lives and prevent waste, fraud, and abuse in Afghanistan, and in future
reconstruction missions elsewhere around the world.
As a retrospective, the report draws on SIGAR’s 13 years of oversight work, including our 10
prior lessons learned reports and 760 interviews our staff conducted with current and former
policymakers, ambassadors, generals, military officers, development experts, and other
practitioners. These interviews in particular enable SIGAR to develop a uniquely nuanced
understanding of Afghan institutions, the efforts by U.S. officials to reform those institutions, and
how those efforts fared. Unlike SIGAR’s previous lessons learned reports, this one does not make
new recommendations for U.S. government agencies or the Congress. Instead, it poses questions
that policymakers may wish to consider—both in Afghanistan and around the world—and
includes some of the most relevant recommendations found in previous lessons learned reports.
The questions for policymakers help frame the report’s lessons and direct attention to the most
critical issues.
Congress created SIGAR as an independent agency focused solely on the Afghanistan mission
and its reconstruction issues. Unlike most inspectors general, who have jurisdiction only
over the programs and operations of their respective departments or agencies, SIGAR has
jurisdiction over all programs and operations supported with U.S. reconstruction dollars over
the last 20 years, regardless of the agency involved. Because SIGAR has the authority to look
across the entire $145 billion reconstruction effort, it is uniquely positioned to identify and
address whole-of-government lessons.
SIGAR began its Lessons Learned Program in late 2014 at the urging of General John Allen,
former commanding general of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, former U.S. Ambassador
to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker, and other senior officials who had served in Afghanistan. They
alerted us to the need for a comprehensive review of our efforts there in order to improve similar
efforts in the future. The resulting lessons learned reports comply with SIGAR’s legislative
2530 CRYSTAL DRIVE, ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA 22202

mandate to provide recommendations to promote economy, efficiency, and effectiveness of
U.S.-funded reconstruction programs and operations; prevent and detect waste, fraud, and
abuse; and inform the Congress and the Secretaries of State and Defense about reconstruction-
related problems and the need for corrective action. The reports document what the U.S.
government sought to accomplish, assess what it achieved, and evaluate the degree to which
these efforts helped the United States reach its reconstruction goals in Afghanistan.
SIGAR’s Lessons Learned Program comprises subject matter experts with considerable
experience working and living in Afghanistan, aided by a team of seasoned research analysts.
I want to express my deepest appreciation to the team members who produced this report:
David Young, project lead; Jordan Kane, Paul Kane, Matthew Rubin, senior analysts; Harrison
Akins, subject matter expert; Daniel Weggeland, senior subject matter expert, and Will Clifft,
student trainee. I also thank Nikolai Condee-Padunov, program manager; Tracy Content, editor;
Vong Lim, senior visual information specialist; Jason Davis, visual information specialist;
and, last but not least, Joseph Windrem, Lessons Learned program director, without whom
the entire lessons learned project would not have been possible. In producing its reports, the
program also uses the significant skills and experience found in SIGAR’s Audits, Investigations,
and Research and Analysis directorates. I thank all of the individuals who contributed their
time and effort to this report.
In addition, I am grateful to the many U.S. government officials at the Department of Defense,
the Department of State, and the U.S. Agency for International Development who have
provided valuable insights and feedback for our lessons learned research. This report is truly
a collaborative effort meant to not only identify problems, but also to encourage reforms to
improve future reconstruction efforts.
Despite the U.S. troop withdrawal, the Biden administration has requested more than $3 billion
for Afghanistan’s reconstruction in the coming year. At this inflection point, I believe lessons
learned reports such as this will continue to be critical and may ultimately be a key legacy
of SIGAR. Through these reports, we hope to reach a diverse audience in the legislative and
executive branches, at the strategic and programmatic levels, both in Washington and in the
field. Using our unique interagency mandate, we intend to do everything we can to make sure the
lessons from the most ambitious reconstruction effort in U.S. history are identified and applied—
not just in Afghanistan, but in future conflicts and reconstruction efforts elsewhere in the world.
John F. Sopko,
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction
Arlington, Virginia
2530 CRYSTAL DRIVE, ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA 22202

TABLE OF CONTENTS | WHAT WE NEED TO LEARN
LETTER FROM THE INSPECTOR GENERAL II
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VII

CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION 1
CHAPTER 2
STRATEGY 9
The Challenge of Ownership.............................................................................10
The Ends Were Murky, and Grew in Number and Complexity.............................12
The Ends, Ways, and Means Were Poorly Aligned..............................................14
A Decade of Withdrawal...................................................................................18
Shifting the Strategy toward Negotiations.........................................................19
Questions for Policymakers..............................................................................21
CHAPTER 3
TIMELINES 23
2001–2005: Harmful Spending Patterns Established......................................24
2006–2008: Spending Ramps Up...................................................................28
2009–2011: An 18-month Surge and a Flood of Cash ...................................30
2012–2014: Rapid Transition Timeline Reveals the Limits of U.S. Efforts..........33
2015–Present: Coming to Terms with Reduced Troops, Assistance,
and Influence ..................................................................................................35
Timelines and Political Pressure Are Perennial..................................................36
Questions for Policymakers .............................................................................37
CHAPTER 4
SUSTAINABILITY 39
Policies Emphasize Sustainability, but Practices Fall Short...............................40
The Afghan Government’s Fiscal and Capacity Limitations...............................40
Poor Monitoring and Evaluation Meant the United States
Was Slow to Recognize the Magnitude of Its Sustainability Problem................43
Short-term Goals versus Long-term Sustainability............................................44
CHAPTER 5
PERSONNEL 49
Problems with Personnel Structures Were Well Known......................................49
Weak Personnel Structures and Funding Prevented Quality Staffing.................50
Rapid Turnover Reduced Personnel Quality.......................................................53
The Use of Contractors and Partners Proliferated to Fill Gaps...........................54
Military and Civilian Personnel Faced Recurring Coordination Challenges........55
Personnel Quality Is Critical in Reconstruction Missions and Is Best
Ensured by Building Institutions between These Missions.................................56
CHAPTER 6
INSECURITY 59
Undermining the Electoral Process...................................................................59
Obstructing the Extension of Government.........................................................61
Restricting Counternarcotics Efforts..................................................................63
Hindering Economic Development...................................................................64
Constraints on Building Indigenous Security Forces.........................................66
Insecurity Begets Insecurity: Failures of Reintegration......................................68
CHAPTER 7
CONTEXT 71
Lack of Awareness Allowed Corruption to Grow................................................72
Imposing Formal Institutions on an Informal Environment................................74
Poor Understanding of Local Context Exacerbated Conflict...............................76
U.S. Officials Had a Limited Understanding of the Very Institutions They Built...77
The United States Struggled to Account for Gender Dynamics..........................78
Willful Disregard for Critical Information...........................................................79
CHAPTER 8
MONITORING AND EVALUATION 83
Insufficient Staffing..........................................................................................84
Perennial Struggles: Monitoring What Happened, Evaluating Whether
It Worked, and Learning to Improve..................................................................85
Even Monitoring Was Spotty ............................................................................86
Evaluation Was Stymied by Strategic Confusion, When It Was Tried at All..........87
Learning Was Rare...........................................................................................88
Incorrect Theories of Change, Resistance to Honesty, and Obfuscation.............89
Money Spent, Not Impact Achieved, Became The Primary Metric of Success...91
Less Ambitious Programming, or Prioritize M&E................................................92
CHAPTER 9
CONCLUSION: PREPARATION NEEDED FOR RECONSTRUCTION
TO SUCCEED 95
APPENDICES AND ENDNOTES 101

Methodology................................................................................................. 101
Acronyms...................................................................................................... 102
Endnotes...................................................................................................... 103
Acknowledgements....................................................................................... 122
FIGURES
Annual Appropriations by Funding Category ($ Billions)............................................................. 4
Fear for Personal Safety............................................................................................................. 5
Enemy-initiated Attacks, 2002–2020.......................................................................................13
U.S. Appropriations and U.S. Troop Levels in Afghanistan by Fiscal Year, 2002–2021................17
The Ring Road in Afghanistan..................................................................................................25
U.S.-appropriated Reconstruction Funding Levels as a Percentage of Afghanistan’s GDP...........27
Planned Polling Centers for 2019 Presidential Election, by Status............................................60
WHAT WE NEED TO LEARN: LESSONS FROM TWENTY YEARS OF AFGHANISTAN RECONSTRUCTION
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
T he U.S. government has now spent 20 years and $145 billion trying to rebuild
Afghanistan, its security forces, civilian government institutions, economy, and civil
society. The Department of Defense (DOD) has also spent $837 billion on warfighting,
during which 2,443 American troops and 1,144 allied troops have been killed and 20,666
U.S. troops injured. Afghans, meanwhile, have faced an even greater toll. At least 66,000
Afghan troops have been killed. More than 48,000 Afghan civilians have been killed, and
at least 75,000 have been injured since 2001—both likely significant underestimations.
The extraordinary costs were meant to serve a purpose—though the definition of that
purpose evolved over time. At various points, the U.S. government hoped to eliminate
al-Qaeda, decimate the Taliban movement that hosted it, deny all terrorist groups a safe
haven in Afghanistan, build Afghan security forces so they could deny terrorists a safe
haven in the future, and help the civilian government become legitimate and capable
enough to win the trust of Afghans. Each goal, once accomplished, was thought to move
the U.S. government one step closer to being able to depart.
While there have been several areas of improvement—most notably in the areas
of health care, maternal health, and education—progress has been elusive and the
prospects for sustaining this progress are dubious. The U.S. government has been
often overwhelmed by the magnitude of rebuilding a country that, at the time of the
U.S. invasion, had already seen two decades of Soviet occupation, civil war, and
Taliban brutality.
Since its founding in 2008, SIGAR has tried to make the U.S. government’s reconstruction
of Afghanistan more likely to succeed. Our investigations held criminals accountable
for defrauding the U.S. government; our audits and special projects reports identified
weaknesses in programs before it was too late to improve them; our quarterly reports
provided near real-time analysis of reconstruction problems as they unfolded; and
our lessons learned reports identified challenges that threaten the viability of the
entire American enterprise of rebuilding Afghanistan, and any similar efforts that may
come after it. SIGAR has issued 427 audits, 191 special project reports, 52 quarterly
reports, and 10 comprehensive lessons learned reports. Meanwhile, SIGAR’s criminal
investigations have resulted in 160 convictions. This oversight work has cumulatively
resulted in $3.84 billion in savings for the U.S. taxpayer.
After conducting more than 760 interviews and reviewing thousands of government
documents, our lessons learned analysis has revealed a troubled reconstruction effort
that has yielded some success but has also been marked by too many failures. Using
this body of work, as well as the work of other oversight organizations, SIGAR has
identified seven key lessons that span the entire 20-year campaign and can be used
AUGUST 2021 | VII

SPECIAL INSPECTOR GENERAL FOR AFGHANISTAN RECONSTRUCTION
in other conflict zones around the globe. These lessons form the backbone of this report,
with a chapter devoted to exploring each in detail:
1. Strategy: The U.S. government continuously struggled to develop

and implement a coherent strategy for what it hoped to achieve.
The challenges U.S. officials faced in creating long-term, sustainable improvements

raise questions about the ability of U.S. government agencies to devise, implement,
and evaluate reconstruction strategies. The division of responsibilities among
agencies did not always take into account each agency’s strengths and weaknesses.
For example, the Department of State is supposed to lead reconstruction efforts,
but it lacked the expertise and resources to take the lead and own the strategy
in Afghanistan. In contrast, DOD has the necessary resources and expertise to
manage strategies, but not for large-scale reconstruction missions with significant
economic and governance components. This meant no single agency had the
necessary mindset, expertise, and resources to develop and manage the strategy
to rebuild Afghanistan. For the U.S. government to successfully rebuild a country,
especially one still experiencing violent conflict, civilian agencies will need the
necessary resources and flexibility to lead in practice, not just on paper.
This poor division of labor resulted in weak strategy. While initially tied to the
destruction of al-Qaeda, the strategy grew considerably to include the defeat of
the Taliban, an insurgent group deeply entrenched in Afghan communities, then
expanded again to include corrupt Afghan officials who undermined U.S. efforts
at every turn. Meanwhile, deteriorating security compelled the mission to grow
even further in scope. U.S. officials believed the solution to insecurity was pouring
ever more resources into Afghan institutions—but the absence of progress after
the surge of civilian and military assistance between 2009 and 2011 made it
clear that the fundamental problems were unlikely to be addressed by changing
resource levels. The U.S. government was simply not equipped to undertake
something this ambitious in such an uncompromising environment, no matter the
budget. After a decade of escalation, the United States began a gradual, decade-
long drawdown that steadily revealed how dependent and vulnerable the Afghan
government remains.
2. Timelines: The U.S. government consistently underestimated the amount

of time required to rebuild Afghanistan, and created unrealistic timelines
and expectations that prioritized spending quickly. These choices increased
corruption and reduced the effectiveness of programs.
The U.S. reconstruction effort in Afghanistan could be described as 20 one-

year reconstruction efforts, rather than one 20-year effort. U.S. officials often
underestimated the time and resources needed to rebuild Afghanistan, leading to
short-term solutions like the surge of troops, money, and resources from 2009–2011.
U.S. officials also prioritized their own political preferences for what they wanted
VIII | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

reconstruction to look like, rather than what they could realistically achieve, given
the constraints and conditions on the ground. Early in the war, U.S. officials denied
the mission resources necessary to have an impact, and implicit deadlines made
the task even harder. As security deteriorated and demands on donors increased,
so did pressure to demonstrate progress. U.S. officials created explicit timelines
in the mistaken belief that a decision in Washington could transform the calculus
of complex Afghan institutions, powerbrokers, and communities contested by
the Taliban.
By design, these timelines often ignored conditions on the ground and forced
reckless compromises in U.S. programs, creating perverse incentives to spend
quickly and focus on short-term, unsustainable goals that could not create the
conditions to allow a victorious U.S. withdrawal. Rather than reform and improve,
Afghan institutions and powerbrokers found ways to co-opt the funds for their
own purposes, which only worsened the problems these programs were meant to
address. When U.S. officials eventually recognized this dynamic, they simply found
new ways to ignore conditions on the ground. Troops and resources continued to
draw down in full view of the Afghan government’s inability to address instability
or prevent it from worsening.
3. Sustainability: Many of the institutions and infrastructure projects

the United States built were not sustainable.
Reconstruction programs are not like humanitarian aid; they are not meant
to provide temporary relief. Instead, they serve as a foundation for building the
necessary institutions of government, civil society, and commerce to sustain
the country indefinitely. Every mile of road the United States built and every
government employee it trained was thought to serve as a springboard for even more
improvements and to enable the reconstruction effort to eventually end. However,
the U.S. government often failed to ensure its projects were sustainable over the long
term. Billions of reconstruction dollars were wasted as projects went unused or fell
into disrepair. Demands to make fast progress incentivized U.S. officials to identify
and implement short-term projects with little consideration for host government
capacity and long-term sustainability. U.S. agencies were seldom judged by their
projects’ continued utility, but by the number of projects completed and dollars spent.
Over time, U.S. policies emphasized that all U.S. reconstruction projects must
be sustainable, but Afghans often lacked the capacity to take responsibility for
projects. In response, the U.S. government tried to help Afghan institutions build
their capacity, but those institutions often could not keep up with U.S. demands
for fast progress. Moreover, pervasive corruption put U.S. funds sent through the
Afghan government at risk of waste, fraud, and abuse. These dynamics motivated
U.S. officials to provide most assistance outside Afghan government channels. While
expedient, the approach meant that Afghan officials were not getting experience in
managing and sustaining U.S. reconstruction projects over the long term. As a result,
AUGUST 2021 | IX
even when programs were able to achieve short-term success, they often could not
last because the Afghans who would eventually take responsibility for them were
poorly equipped, trained, or motivated to do so.
4. Personnel: Counterproductive civilian and military personnel policies

and practices thwarted the effort.
The U.S. government’s inability to get the right people into the right jobs at the
right times was one of the most significant failures of the mission. It is also one
of the hardest to repair. U.S. personnel in Afghanistan were often unqualified and
poorly trained, and those who were qualified were difficult to retain. DOD police
advisors watched American TV shows to learn about policing, civil affairs teams
were mass-produced via PowerPoint presentations, and every agency experienced
annual lobotomies as staff constantly rotated out, leaving successors to start
from scratch and make similar mistakes all over again. These dynamics had direct
effects on the quality of reconstruction. There were often not enough staff to
oversee the spending, and certainly not enough who were qualified to do so. This
was particularly true for civilian agencies, such as State or the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID), which should have been leading the effort but
were unable to meaningfully perform that role. This compelled the better-resourced
DOD to fill the void, creating tensions with civilian agencies that often had different
ideas but fewer staff to offer.
5. Insecurity: Persistent insecurity severely undermined reconstruction efforts.
The absence of violence was a critical precondition for everything U.S. officials
tried to do in Afghanistan—yet the U.S. effort to rebuild the country took place
while it was being torn apart. For example, helping Afghans develop a credible
electoral process became ever more difficult as insecurity across the country
steadily worsened—intimidating voters, preventing voter registration, and closing
polling stations on election day. In remote areas where the Taliban contested
control, U.S. officials were unable to make sufficient gains to convince frightened
rural Afghans of the benefits of supporting their government. Insecurity and
the uncertainty that it spawns have also made Afghanistan one of the worst
environments in the world to run a business. The long-term development of
Afghanistan’s security forces likewise saw a number of harmful compromises,
driven by the immediate need to address rising insecurity. The danger meant that
even programs to reintegrate former fighters faltered, as ex-combatants could not
be protected from retaliation if they rejoined their communities.
6. Context: The U.S. government did not understand the Afghan context
and therefore failed to tailor its efforts accordingly.
Effectively rebuilding Afghanistan required a detailed understanding of the

country’s social, economic, and political dynamics. However, U.S. officials were
X | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
consistently operating in the dark, often because of the difficulty of collecting

the necessary information. The U.S. government also clumsily forced Western
technocratic models onto Afghan economic institutions; trained security forces
in advanced weapon systems they could not understand, much less maintain;
imposed formal rule of law on a country that addressed 80 to 90 percent of its
disputes through informal means; and often struggled to understand or mitigate
the cultural and social barriers to supporting women and girls. Without this
background knowledge, U.S. officials often empowered powerbrokers who preyed
on the population or diverted U.S. assistance away from its intended recipients to
enrich and empower themselves and their allies. Lack of knowledge at the local
level meant projects intended to mitigate conflict often exacerbated it, and even
inadvertently funded insurgents.
7. Monitoring and Evaluation: U.S. government agencies rarely conducted

sufficient monitoring and evaluation to understand the impact of their efforts.
Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is the process of determining what works, what
does not, and what needs to change as a result. Conceptually, M&E is relatively
straightforward, but in practice, it is extremely challenging. This is especially true
in complex and unpredictable environments like Afghanistan, where staff turnover
is rapid, multiple agencies must coordinate programs simultaneously, security and
access restrictions make it hard to understand a program’s challenges and impact,
and a myriad of variables compete to influence outcomes. The absence of periodic
reality checks created the risk of doing the wrong thing perfectly: A project that
completed required tasks would be considered “successful,” whether or not it had
achieved or contributed to broader, more important goals.
SIGAR’s extensive audit work on sectors spanning health, education, rule of law,
women’s rights, infrastructure, security assistance, and others collectively paints
a picture of U.S. agencies struggling to effectively measure results while sometimes
relying on shaky data to make claims of success. The U.S. government’s M&E efforts
in Afghanistan have been underemphasized and understaffed because the overall
campaign focused on doing as much as possible as quickly as possible, rather than
ensuring programs were designed well to begin with and could adapt as needed. As a
result, the U.S. government missed many opportunities to identify critical flaws in its
interventions or to act on those that were identified. These shortcomings endangered
the lives of U.S., Afghan, and coalition government personnel and civilians, and
undermined progress toward strategic goals.
* * * * *
In conclusion, this report raises critical questions about the U.S. government’s ability
to carry out reconstruction efforts on the scale seen in Afghanistan. As an inspector
general’s office charged with overseeing reconstruction spending in Afghanistan,
SIGAR’s approach has generally been technical; we identify specific problems and offer
AUGUST 2021 | XI
specific solutions. However, after 13 years of oversight, the cumulative list of systemic
challenges SIGAR and other oversight bodies have identified is staggering. As former
National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley told SIGAR, “We just don’t have a post-
conflict stabilization model that works. Every time we have one of these things, it is a
pick-up game. I don’t have confidence that if we did it again, we would do any better.”1
This was equally apparent after the Vietnam War, when a war-weary and divided country
had little appetite to engage in another similar conflict. After Vietnam, for example,
the U.S. Army disbanded most active duty civil affairs units and reduced the number
of foreign area officers, the Army’s “regionally focused experts in political-military
operations.”2 Special Forces moved away from counterinsurgency and instead focused
on conducting small-scale operations in support of conventional forces. And USAID’s
global staff was gradually cut by 83 percent.
In other words, according to former Vice Chief of Staff of the Army General Jack Keane,
“After the Vietnam War, we purged ourselves of everything that had to do with irregular
warfare or insurgency, because it had to do with how we lost that war. In hindsight, that
was a bad decision.”3 After all, declining to prepare after Vietnam did not prevent the
wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; instead, it ensured they would become quagmires.
Rather than motivating the U.S. government to improve, the difficulty of these missions
may instead encourage U.S. officials to move on and prepare for something new.
According to Robert Gates, former secretary of defense from 2006–2011:
I have noticed too much of a tendency towards what might be called

‘Next‑War-itis,’ the propensity of much of the defense establishment to be
in favor of what might be needed in a future conflict. . . . Overall, the kinds
of capabilities we will most likely need in the years ahead will often resemble
the kinds of capabilities we need today.4
The post-Afghanistan experience may be no different. As this report shows, there are
multiple reasons to develop these capabilities and prepare for reconstruction missions
in conflict-affected countries:
1. They are very expensive. For example, all war-related costs for U.S. efforts in
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan over the last two decades are estimated to be
$6.4 trillion.
2. They usually go poorly.
3. Widespread recognition that they go poorly has not prevented U.S. officials from
pursuing them.
4. Rebuilding countries mired in conflict is actually a continuous U.S. government
endeavor, reflected by efforts in the Balkans and Haiti and smaller efforts currently
underway in Mali, Burkina Faso, Somalia, Yemen, Ukraine, and elsewhere.
5. Large reconstruction campaigns usually start small, so it would not be hard for the
U.S. government to slip down this slope again somewhere else and for the outcome
to be similar to that of Afghanistan.
XII | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Nevertheless, after the last two decades in Afghanistan and Iraq, State, USAID, and
DOD have all signaled they do not see large-scale missions as likely in the future. The
Stabilization Assistance Review approved by all three agencies in 2018 noted, “There is
no appetite to repeat large-scale reconstruction efforts, and therefore our engagements
must be more measured in scope and adaptable in execution.”5 Just as after Vietnam,
today U.S. policymakers and the public they serve may have sound reasons for avoiding
another prolonged conflict and reconstruction mission. However, that does not mean
such an endeavor is avoidable in the future.
As SIGAR’s Stabilization report notes, “there will likely be times in the future when
insurgent control or influence over a particular area or population is deemed an
imminent threat to U.S. interests.”6 If the U.S. government does not prepare for that
likelihood, it may once again try to build the necessary knowledge and capacity on the
fly. As seen in Afghanistan and Iraq, doing so has proven difficult, costly, and prone to
avoidable mistakes.
As former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker observed, “You have to start
working on it before you need it.”7 One former senior DOD official likewise noted that
rebuilding another country requires advanced skills that must be cultivated ahead of
time. “You wouldn’t invent how to do infantry operations [or] artillery at the start of
a war. You need [to already have] the science behind [reconstruction] and people who
think about it 24/7.”8
Building on SIGAR’s body of work, as well as the work of inspector general offices
across the government, this report points to conceptual, administrative, and logistical
work that should be done between large-scale reconstruction efforts to increase the
U.S. government’s chances of success in future campaigns.
The nature and range of the investment necessary to properly prepare for these
campaigns is an open question. In previous lessons learned reports, SIGAR has
made recommendations for existing U.S. government offices to create a database of
qualified personnel to call up when necessary, build interagency doctrine for security
sector assistance, and establish anti-corruption offices within key agencies. As former
U.S. envoy to Afghanistan James Dobbins observed, properly preparing “doesn’t mean
that you have to have a standing capability to immediately train [an entire army], but you
need to have the know-how and an ability to surge those kinds of resources.”9 Others
have argued that such an ability requires a permanent office with the authority and
funding to prepare for, plan, execute, and evaluate all reconstruction missions.
U.S. agencies should continue to explore how they can ensure they have the strategic
planning capabilities, reconstruction doctrine, policies, best practices, standard
operating procedures, institutional knowledge, and personnel structures necessary for
both large and small reconstruction missions.
AUGUST 2021 | XIII

CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
T he U.S. government has now spent 20 years and $145 billion trying to rebuild
Afghanistan, its security forces, civilian government institutions, economy,
and civil society. The Department of Defense (DOD) has also spent $837 billion on
As part of Operation
Medusa, soldiers from
4th Platoon, Bravo
Company, Royal Canadian
Regiment, burst into
warfighting, during which 2,443 American troops and 1,144 allied troops have been
a suspected Taliban
killed and 20,666 U.S. troops injured.10 Afghans, meanwhile, have faced an even stronghold in Pashmul,
greater toll. At least 66,000 Afghan troops have been killed.11 More than 48,000 Afghan a small village north
of Panjwai District, on
civilians have been killed, and at least 75,000 have been injured since 2001—both likely September 11, 2006.
significant underestimations.12 (Photo by Graeme Smith).
The extraordinary costs were meant to serve a purpose—though the definition of that
purpose evolved over time. At various points, the U.S. government hoped to eliminate
al-Qaeda, decimate the Taliban movement that hosted it, deny all terrorist groups a
safe haven in Afghanistan, build Afghan security forces so they could deny terrorists
a safe haven in the future, and help the civilian government become legitimate and
capable enough to win the trust of Afghans. Each goal, once accomplished, was
thought to move the U.S. government one step closer to being able to depart.
While there have been several areas of improvement—most notably in the areas of
health care, maternal health, and education—overall progress has been elusive and
the prospects for sustaining this progress are dubious. The U.S. government has
been often overwhelmed by the magnitude of rebuilding a country that, at the time
AUGUST 2021 | 1
of the U.S. invasion, had already seen two decades of Soviet occupation, civil war,
and Taliban brutality.
Since its founding in 2008, SIGAR has tried to make the U.S. government’s
reconstruction of Afghanistan more likely to succeed. Our investigations held criminals
accountable for defrauding the U.S. government; our audits and special projects reports
identified weaknesses in programs before it was too late to improve them; our quarterly
reports provided near real-time analysis of reconstruction problems as they unfolded;
and our lessons learned reports identified challenges that threaten the viability of the
entire American enterprise of rebuilding Afghanistan, and any similar efforts that may
come after it. To that end, SIGAR has issued 427 audits, 191 special project reports,
52 quarterly reports, and 10 comprehensive lessons learned reports. Meanwhile, SIGAR’s
criminal investigations have resulted in 160 convictions. This oversight work has
cumulatively resulted in $3.84 billion in savings for the U.S. taxpayer.13
After conducting more than 760 interviews and reviewing thousands of government
documents, our lessons learned analysis has revealed a troubled reconstruction effort
that has yielded some success but has also been marked by many failures. Using
this body of work, as well as the work of other oversight organizations, SIGAR has
identified seven key lessons that span the entire 20-year campaign and can be used in
other conflict zones around the globe. These lessons form the backbone of this report,
with a chapter devoted to exploring each in detail:
1. The U.S. government continuously struggled to develop and implement a coherent

strategy for what it hoped to achieve.
2. The U.S. government consistently underestimated the amount of time required
to rebuild Afghanistan and created unrealistic timelines and expectations that
prioritized spending quickly. These choices increased corruption and reduced the
effectiveness of programs.
3. Many of the institutions and infrastructure projects the United States built were
not sustainable.
4. Counterproductive civilian and military personnel policies and practices thwarted
the effort.
5. Persistent insecurity severely undermined reconstruction efforts.
6. The U.S. government did not understand the Afghan context and therefore failed
to tailor its efforts accordingly.
7. U.S. government agencies rarely conducted sufficient monitoring and evaluation
to understand the impact of their efforts.
By the time the Taliban fell in November 2001, 23 years of war had taken an
extraordinary toll on Afghanistan’s population and institutions. Then-Ambassador Ryan
Crocker, who opened the U.S. embassy in early 2002, told SIGAR he arrived to find
“absolute devastation. . . . There was almost literally nothing there.” He remembered
that interim president Hamid Karzai “had no real authority and nothing to work with,
no military, no police, no civil service, no functioning society.”14 Afghanistan’s GDP per
2 | INTRODUCTION
U.S. and Afghan officials gather to celebrate the delivery of wheat seed, fertilizer, and fruit trees as an
alternative crop to poppy in Herat on February 21, 2009. (DOD photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class
Monica R. Nelson)
capita was the fourth worst in the world.15 As the World Bank wrote in March 2002,
“Afghanistan’s humanitarian, reconstruction, and development needs are immense. Its
economy is in a state of collapse, its infrastructure destroyed, its formal state institutions
severely undermined or nonexistent, and its social indicators the worst in the world.”16
Afghans had no experience participating in elections, much less administering them.

There was no independent media, and civil society was anemic. Life expectancy was
56 years, lower than 83 percent of countries at the time.17 The mortality rate for children
under the age of five was in the bottom 15 percent of countries globally.18 Women and
girls were officially banned from schools and the workforce. Only 21 percent of eligible
children were enrolled in primary school.19 Even as late as 2005, 64 percent of Afghan
men and boys were illiterate, as were 82 percent of Afghan women and girls.20
To help Afghanistan climb out of that chasm, the U.S. government spent two decades
and billions of dollars (see Figure 1 on pp. 4–5) running programs to:
• Train, equip, and pay the salaries for hundreds of thousands of Afghan soldiers
and police;
• Build a credible electoral process by funding elections, cultivating political parties,
and training election officials and observers;
• Educate more Afghans, particularly girls and women, by building, repairing, staffing,
and equipping schools;
• Reintegrate back into society tens of thousands of armed fighters with few other
skills, an abundance of weapons, and ample opportunity to resume violence;
• Develop the private sector by training entrepreneurs, lowering the costs of starting
and running businesses, and creating an environment that would attract foreign and
domestic businesses to operate in Afghanistan;
AUGUST 2021 | 3
FIGURE 1
ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS BY FUNDING CATEGORY ($ BILLIONS)
$18
16.75
15.98
15
12
10.13 10.43
6.18
6
4.72
3.52
3 2.65
1.07 1.19
0
FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011
Security Governance/Development Humanitarian Agency Operations Total
Note: Numbers have been rounded.

Source: Details of accounts, including sources of data, are provided in Appendix B of SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, July 30, 2021.
• Reduce rampant corruption in the Afghan government to improve its performance

and legitimacy;
• Reduce the cultivation and trade of poppy and provide alternative livelihoods for
Afghan farmers;
• Deliver services at the local level so that Afghans in contested territory would come
to favor the Afghan government over the Taliban;
• Improve the quality and accessibility of health care by building, repairing, staffing,
and equipping medical facilities;
• Train and empower Afghan officials to sustain the above efforts after the United
States departs by collecting their own revenue and effectively managing their own
national budget.
Twenty years later, much has improved, and much has not. If the goal was to rebuild
and leave behind a country that can sustain itself and pose little threat to U.S. national
security interests, the overall picture is bleak. By most measurements, security has
progressively worsened. Even after the U.S. government spent more than $83 billion
building the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF), the Taliban
controls more territory than at any point in the war, the number of effective enemy-
initiated attacks is steadily increasing, and fear for personal safety among Afghans has
never been higher (See Figure 2 on the next page).21
4 | INTRODUCTION
$18
14.72 15
12
10.12
9
6.87 6.58 6.79
6.46
5.68 5.72 6
4.62
3.12
3
0
FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Security Governance/Development Humanitarian Agency Operations Total
FIGURE 2
FEAR FOR PERSONAL SAFETY
80%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Note: The data reflected above are the total respondents who answered “always,” “often,” and “sometimes.” 2020 data was not available due
to COVID-19.
Source: The Asia Foundation, “A Survey of the Afghan People: Afghanistan in 2019,” 2019, p. 60.
AUGUST 2021 | 5
While almost always positive, annual economic growth has fluctuated nearly in lockstep
with donor assistance, revealing how artificial and thus unsustainable the growth
has been.22 By 2020, after adjusting for inflation, the country’s GDP per capita had
moved only from the world’s fourth worst to its eighth worst.23 Even as late as 2018,
nearly 80 percent of government expenditures were supplied by donors.24 Meanwhile,
the cultivation of poppy has steadily trended upward for two decades, even as the
U.S. government spent nearly $9 billion trying to reverse it.25 Unsurprisingly, Afghanistan
continues to be ranked among the most corrupt countries in the world.26
There is no doubt, however, that the lives of millions of Afghans have been improved
by U.S. government interventions. By 2018, life expectancy had jumped from 56 to 65,
a 16 percent increase.27 Between 2000 and 2019, the mortality rate of children under five
plummeted by more than 50 percent.28 Between 2001 and 2019, Afghanistan’s human
development index increased 45 percent.29 Between 2002 and 2019, Afghanistan’s
GDP per capita nearly doubled, and overall GDP nearly tripled, even accounting
for inflation.30 Between 2005 and 2017, literacy among 15- to 24-year-olds increased
by 28 percentage points among males and 19 points among females, primarily driven
by increases in rural areas.31
Despite these gains, the key question is whether they are commensurate with the
U.S. investment or sustainable after a U.S. drawdown. In SIGAR’s analysis, they are
neither. As one former senior DOD official told SIGAR, “When you look at how much
we spent and what we got for it, it’s mind boggling.”32 As detailed in Chapter 2, the
U.S. government had less influence over Afghan institutions than it hoped—not due
to the amount of resources it gave, but due to how the U.S. government used them.
The U.S. government’s goals were often operationally impractical or conceptually
incoherent, meaning U.S. officials and their implementing partners often tried to:
• Root out corruption, but also to jumpstart the economy by injecting billions
of dollars into it;
• Improve formal governance and eliminate a culture of impunity, but also to maintain
security, even if it meant empowering corrupt or predatory actors;
• Give Afghan security forces a competitive edge against the Taliban, but also to limit
them to equipment and skills that they could sustain after a U.S. departure;
• Direct considerable reconstruction funds through the Afghan government to help
officials practice public financial management, but also to prevent waste, fraud,
and abuse;
• Build a credible election process from scratch, but also to respect Afghan sovereignty;
• Focus on making immediate progress on security and governance, but also to build
the long-term capacity of Afghan officials;
• Reduce the cultivation of poppy, but without depriving the farmers and laborers
who depend on it;
• Empower women to become more educated and economically independent, but also
to be culturally sensitive and respect Afghan traditions.
6 | INTRODUCTION
Members of Khost Provincial Reconstruction Team check the quality of the work done on the Hassan Khot
school roof on July 3, 2010. (Photo by U.S. Air Force Sr. Amn. Julianne M. Showalter, Khost Provincial
Reconstruction Team Public Affairs Office)
There may exist a middle ground on each of these spectrums that would allow for success,
but U.S. officials were seldom able to find it. More often they swung from one extreme to
another, as officials were unable to plan more than a year into the future and were not on
the ground long enough to see even their own short-term plans through to completion.
In theory, U.S. officials should have been able to anticipate, recognize, and address all
of these problems when considering the mission’s strategy. However, as the next chapter
details, devising, implementing, and evaluating that strategy proved exceptionally difficult.
AUGUST 2021 | 7
LESSON 1
The U.S. government
continuously struggled to develop
and implement a coherent strategy
for what it hoped to achieve.
CHAPTER 2
STRATEGY
R ebuilding a country devastated by decades of war is a daunting task. Senior

U.S. officials in Washington and Kabul overseeing the reconstruction of
Afghanistan routinely reviewed and modified their strategies as conflict dynamics
President Obama meets
with his national security
team on Afghanistan and
Pakistan in the Situation
Room of the White House
changed on the ground and politics evolved in Washington. Former National Security
on October 20, 2010.
Advisor Stephen Hadley, who oversaw the strategy from 2001-2008, paraphrased the (White House Photo
strategy to SIGAR this way: “The goal was to help Afghanistan build a government, by Pete Souza)
provide a prosperous life for the Afghan people, and thus create a resiliency against
al-Qaeda’s return.”33 When properly developed, strategies detail the ends, ways, and
means of the mission.
Ends: the overarching goals or end states that guide all lower level decisions
Ways: the sequence of actions needed to achieve those goals
Means: the resources allocated to complete those actions
In other words, a strategy crafts a vision, identifies the necessary puzzle pieces, and
lays out how those pieces will fit together to make the vision a reality. A strategy can
fail in many ways. The division of labor for conceiving the strategy could set it up for
failure; the ends could be unclear and subject to mission creep; or the ends, ways,
and means might be poorly aligned with one another. Across two decades rebuilding
Afghanistan, the U.S. government suffered from all three problems.
AUGUST 2021 | 9
THE CHALLENGE OF OWNERSHIP

The responsibilities for developing different components of the reconstruction strategy
were divided in problematic ways. The National Security Council (NSC) is in charge of
developing national security policy, but the process is not designed for overseeing large-
scale reconstruction efforts.34 As former national security advisor Stephen Hadley told
SIGAR, “There was just no process to do post-war mission planning.”35
As a result, the NSC’s primary contribution to reconstruction strategy was in the

evaluation of the “ends,” as these are closest to high-level policy. Below that, according
to the former NSC “war czar” Douglas Lute, the “chain tends to get weaker.”36 The ends
receive far more scrutiny than the ways and means, which are mostly left to the agencies
to determine—particularly the Departments of State and Defense and the U.S. Agency
for International Development (USAID). Each of these agencies then devises their
own sub-strategies for specific time periods, geographies, or thematic areas (like
counternarcotics or anti-corruption) in order to implement the specific ways and means
of the larger strategy. This delegation is somewhat intuitive, as these agencies know
best what resources they can bring to bear, and how. Yet these skills are not evenly
distributed, which creates problems for developing and executing the ways and means.
Of the three, State was usually charged with articulating the ways and means—in other
words, leading the interagency reconstruction effort in Afghanistan. Yet at no point
during the 20-year campaign did any of SIGAR’s interviewees believe that State had the
ability to lead the effort in any meaningful way. Former senior NSC, State, and DOD
officials variously said State was “not capable of leading,” “biased against structured
planning,” lacks “a strong analytic or planning culture,” and was weak at “defining the
end state and then all the steps to get to the end state.”37 For example, according to
one senior U.S. official, “We asked [State’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and
Pakistan Richard] Holbrooke how he’d implement [the 2009 strategy], and he gave us 20
papers, one of which was solely about pomegranates. They weren’t planners...We forced
them to plan, but it was crap, a paper push.”38
The deficiency is not new. The Clinton and Bush administrations both issued presidential
directives to improve interagency planning and staffing related to stabilization
and reconstruction missions (see Chapter 5). State established a Coordinator for
Reconstruction and Stabilization (CRS) in 2004, but the Congress did not fund it for
several years; in the meantime, it lacked the resources to meaningfully contribute to
strategy and planning for the missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.39 Like any organization
with significant authority but minimal resources, CRS was marginalized by other offices
across the interagency that viewed it as a bureaucratic threat.40 The office’s failures only
reinforced the impression that State could not plan. So in 2011, CRS became a conflict-
focused bureau at State with no mandate for leading interagency planning.41
With State unable to craft a vision for the ways and means of the mission, the only
organization left to fill the void was DOD, which has extensive practice. According
to Douglas Lute, “The only professional group that does real strategy is the military.”
So with Afghanistan, he told SIGAR, there was a heavy burden on the military for
10 | STRATEGY
strategy development “and an underappreciation of policy, diplomacy, and development.

These are all considered secondary to the primacy of military ways.”42
Much of the problem comes back to resources. State’s budget and staff pale in comparison
to DOD’s. In 2021, Congress appropriated $696 billion for DOD, compared to $56 billion for
State.43 State has a total of only 24,000 American employees, a number that is fewer than
the number of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea alone and which is dwarfed by the
1.4 million troops in the U.S. military globally.44 State’s 7,900 foreign service officers—the
backbone of the agency—only slightly outnumber the musicians employed in DOD bands.45
State’s 7,900 foreign service officers—the backbone of the agency—

only slightly outnumber the musicians employed in DOD bands.
Imbalances like these have broad implications for the respective abilities of DOD
and State to respond to emergencies. In their operating costs, U.S. military branches
have built in an additional 10 percent “float” of staff and resources in case of an
emergency—a luxury almost unthinkable for U.S. civilian agencies.46
Yet having more resources to develop expertise in strategy does not mean that the
military is ideally suited to take the lead in cases like these. Inherently political
reconstruction campaigns should be led by political institutions like State.47 However,
U.S. policymakers had no other viable option but to lean on the military and simply
pretend State holds the reins in such missions.
The pretense continues today. The 2018 interagency Stabilization Assistance Review
and the 2020 Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability both declared that State
would lead U.S. government efforts in conflict-affected environments, and that USAID
would be the lead implementer.48 Similarly, the Global Fragility Act of 2019 charges State
with “leading the drafting and execution of the strategy” for an important new effort
to prevent and reduce violent conflict.49 What these documents and their predecessors
imply is that State should also be equipped to lead, but they do not say this explicitly,
nor is it happening. The Global Fragility Act authorizes $200 million per year for five
years for State and USAID, but as is the custom with development funds, the legislation
dictates that no more than 5 percent may be spent on “administrative expenses” to
ensure the remainder goes to beneficiaries in conflict-affected countries.50 Although such
a cap seems sensible at first glance, administrative expenses serve a purpose. Improving
the ability of civilian agencies to lead these whole-of-government efforts requires them
to be allowed to invest in themselves, not just in conflict-affected countries. If they
cannot invest in themselves, additional funds are unlikely to be spent more effectively.
The issue goes deeper than funding levels, and involves the culture of accountability
across the U.S. government. According to a former senior NSC official, “We just don’t
question DOD in the same way as we question development agencies in conflict zones. We
don’t scrutinize DOD fuel costs because we have . . . formalized $100 per gallon as . . . the
cost of doing business.”51 Until State and USAID enjoy the benefits of DOD’s accountability
AUGUST 2021 | 11
standards in reconstruction efforts, State is unlikely to be given the necessary resources

between these missions so that it can plan, lead, and perform during these missions.
Until State and USAID enjoy the benefits of DOD’s accountability

standards in reconstruction efforts, State is unlikely to be given
the necessary resources between these missions so that it can plan,
lead, and perform during these missions.
THE ENDS WERE MURKY, AND GREW IN NUMBER AND COMPLEXITY

The bureaucratic disarray over who should and would ultimately own the strategy made
it more likely that senior U.S. officials would struggle to address basic challenges in that
strategy. The most fundamental of questions were continuously revisited, including who
America’s enemies and allies were, and exactly what the U.S. government should try
to accomplish.
Strategic Limitations of the International Alliance

Just as the United States struggled to implement a commander said his role was often reduced to providing
coordinated, unified strategy in Afghanistan, so too strategic guidance, rather than commanding forces.56 In
did the international community, as exemplified by the other words, there was no single authority leading NATO
experience of NATO. Although NATO partners undoubtedly forces in Afghanistan.57
added value to the U.S.-led mission, command and
control issues and “national caveats” hamstrung NATO’s In addition to ad hoc decisions about whether to
effectiveness and hindered the United States’ ability to cooperate with the multinational commander’s orders,
make the most of coalition support.52 member countries also had the option to carve out
specific restrictions in advance on how their forces could
The command and control issues that plagued NATO in be used. These restrictions, called “national caveats,”
Afghanistan can be traced to the organization’s creation meant that dozens of NATO countries limited how,
in the 1940s as a counter-Soviet alliance that granted when, and where their forces could be employed. This
member states full control over deployed forces and created a significant logistical burden for multinational
prioritized political unity among member states at the commanders, who had to sort through nearly 60 caveats
expense of operational unity between their militaries.53 to determine who was even eligible to fulfill a mission—
In fact, the treaty grants member states so much assuming they would accept it.58 Most restrictions
independence that the chain of command back to the imposed geographic limitations on a force, but others
force’s home country always supersedes NATO orders, specified whether a force could take offensive actions,
even in cases of operational plans, strategic directives, defensive actions, or only observe targets; others
and rules of engagement that have been approved by specified whether a force could operate at night, or only
consensus among member countries in NATO’s principal during daylight.59 These onerous restrictions sometimes
decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council.54 In created tensions within the alliance between countries
practice, this means that national commanders can that restricted their forces, and those that felt they were
disobey orders from their multinational NATO commander bearing an inequitable share of the combat burden.60
if they object to the action.55 One former NATO
12 | STRATEGY
After initially defeating the Taliban, U.S. strategy focused on the permanent destruction
of al-Qaeda, the perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks.61 Beginning around 2003, the remnants
of the Taliban regime launched a campaign of attacks that grew exponentially (see
Figure 3). U.S. officials worried that the safe haven once provided to al-Qaeda could very
well reestablish itself if the Taliban itself was not also continuously degraded.62 Unlike
al-Qaeda, however, the Taliban were primarily from the country’s south and east, where
they enjoyed a modicum of popular support.63 Adding the Taliban to the list of enemies
required a significant expansion of reconstruction efforts to convince more Afghans to
turn on the Taliban and support their government. In theory, this approach would help
keep the Taliban and (by extension) al-Qaeda out of Afghan communities. As Stephen
Hadley told SIGAR, “We originally said that we won’t do nation building, but there is no
way to ensure that al-Qaeda won’t come back without it.”64
Despite these investments, security continued to worsen. As the mission slowly shifted
away from counterterrorism toward reconstruction-heavy counterinsurgency, U.S.
officials added a nebulous new enemy to the list. As Ambassador Ryan Crocker told
SIGAR, “The ultimate point of failure for our efforts wasn’t an insurgency. It was the
weight of endemic corruption.”65 It became increasingly apparent that Afghan officials
themselves were corrupting reconstruction efforts, exacerbating conflict, and driving
FIGURE 3
ENEMY-INITIATED ATTACKS, 2002–2020
50,000
40,535
40,000
31,879
30,000 28,763 29,090 28,887 29,083
26,286 25,871
24,690
22,899 23,644
21,016
20,000
12,333
10,000
6,993
5,057
1,281 1,880 2,322

372
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Note: The chart reflects data on enemy-initiated attacks sourced from the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency for the years 2002 to 2009, and from the U.S. military headquarters in
Afghanistan for the years 2010 to 2020. Defense Intelligence Agency data are generally derived from a larger number of sources and therefore captures more incidents, but these additional
sources were not available for the full 19 years.
Source: Resolute Support, response to SIGAR data call, April 1, 2021, and June 12, 2021; Resolute Support, response to DOD OIG vetting, October 2019; U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency,
response to SIGAR data call, April 2015.
AUGUST 2021 | 13
many Afghans into the arms of the Taliban.66 Prosecuting these officials, or even
removing them from office, proved extremely difficult, since it would mean “dismantling
major pillars of support for the government itself,” including its electoral institutions,
according to two SIGAR lessons learned reports.67 Thus, a strategy that initially focused
on al-Qaeda expanded to include tens of thousands of Taliban fighters embedded within
the population, and from there, to a large number of entrenched mid- and senior-level
government officials in Kabul and around the country.
“The ultimate point of failure for our efforts wasn’t an insurgency.

It was the weight of endemic corruption.”
—Ambassador Ryan Crocker
Highlighting just how far the mission had crept, a senior NATO official told SIGAR that the
first draft of the 2009 U.S. military strategy for Afghanistan did not even mention al-Qaeda
because they believed it was “no longer a problem.”68 Yet the war continued—but not
because its core objectives were changing. Instead, U.S. officials came to believe that even
the narrow mission of keeping al-Qaeda from returning required rebuilding institutions,
and these were plagued by increasingly interconnected reconstruction problems.69 For
example, improving security required a stable economy to lure fighters away from the
battlefield—but rebuilding the Afghan economy depended heavily on revitalizing the
agricultural sector. That was only possible through building better roads so farmers could
sell their goods; but building better roads required security for the construction workers.
If progress could not be made on all fronts simultaneously, it was hard to make progress on
any. With an ever-increasing list of enemies and priorities, it was tempting for U.S. officials
to believe the solution was more troops and more aid. This assumption proved incorrect.
THE ENDS, WAYS, AND MEANS WERE POORLY ALIGNED

Throughout the 20-year campaign, there were recurring complaints by U.S. officials
and commentators that there was no strategy.70 For example, in 2009, when then-Vice
President Joe Biden returned from a trip to Afghanistan, he told President Obama,
“If you ask 10 of our people what we’re trying to accomplish here, you get 10 different
answers. This has been on autopilot.”71 It is difficult to reconcile complaints about a
lack of strategy with the fact that U.S. administrations consistently articulated ends,
developed ways, and allocated means for the mission. So these complaints more likely
point to a different, though equally significant problem: the chronic misalignment of
those ends, ways, and means.
To develop and align these components, planners need a detailed understanding of the
object of reform (Afghanistan’s institutions and population) and the tools that will create
the reform (U.S. government agencies and partners). Knowing each allows planners
to anticipate likely points of failure and adjust the ends, ways, and means accordingly.
However, this knowledge was rare, and was often replaced with problematic
14 | STRATEGY
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates meets with General Stanley McChrystal and other members
of the International Security Assistance Force in Kabul on March 8, 2010. (DOD photo by Cherie Cullen)
assumptions. After coordinating Afghanistan strategy at the National Security Council

from 2007–2013, Douglas Lute told SIGAR,
We were devoid of a fundamental understanding of Afghanistan. We didn’t

know what we were doing. . . . We’re going to do something in Afghanistan
with $10 billion? Haiti is a small country in our own backyard with no
extremist insurgency and we can’t develop it. And we expect to develop
Afghanistan with $10 billion? . . . What are we trying to do here? We didn’t
have the foggiest notion of what we were undertaking. . . . It’s really much
worse than you think. There [was] a fundamental gap of understanding on the
front end, overstated objectives, an overreliance on the military, and a lack of
understanding of the resources necessary.72
In other words, U.S. officials not only had a poor understanding of Afghanistan, but also
of their own institutions, which meant the Afghanistan mission’s ends, ways, and means
would inevitably be misaligned over the course of the war. For example, between 2001
and 2004, according to a former senior State official,
It was a minimalism approach. We will help these guys set up a government

and a bit economically and on the humanitarian side, but we are not going
to do anything that smacks of nation building. . . . You have to be crazy if you
want to get ambitious in Afghanistan.73
The thinking reflected an assumption at the time that Afghanistan was on a positive, if slow,
glide path away from being an “ungoverned space” that hosted transnational terrorists.
In January 2002, USAID drafted a plan to help rebuild Afghanistan for $1.8 billion over
10 years and assumed security would improve at the local level, where reconstruction
efforts should focus.74 Estimates like these proved rather optimistic, perhaps knowingly.
According to former U.S. Special Envoy James Dobbins, Bush administration officials
AUGUST 2021 | 15
insisted on “absolutely minimizing the application of . . . military manpower and

economic assistance” to avoid another costly peacekeeping mission, such as Bosnia.75
Yet infrastructure and human development levels in Afghanistan were far worse than
in the Balkans, so it was especially peculiar to argue that Bosnia’s good fortune could
be replicated in a much worse-off country with far fewer troops and funds per capita.
For example, around the time that reconstruction strategies were first conceived in
Bosnia (1995) and Afghanistan (2002), Afghanistan had more than five times Bosnia’s
population and more than five times its infant mortality rate. Meanwhile, Bosnia had at
least triple Afghanistan’s literacy rate, five times its per capita income, and 19 times as
many international troops per capita.76 Simply put, Bosnia had better baselines before
the conflict for donors to work with, the chasm created by the war was far shallower,
and Bosnia saw far more early support to fill that chasm. As a result, after spending
$4.4 billion between 1995 and 1999, donors had restored Bosnia’s “roads, power supply,
telecommunications, water supplies, and schools to near pre-war standards,” according
to the World Bank.77
Other U.S. government decisions in Afghanistan helped ensure there would be no

peace to keep in the first place. For perspective, Bosnia benefitted from a proper
peace settlement in 1995 that has prevented mass violence ever since.78 In contrast, in
Afghanistan, the U.S. government refused opportunities to reconcile with the defeated
Taliban and declined to implement an inclusive, post-conflict peace process, so the
Taliban soon rebuilt itself as a powerful insurgency.79
As a result, simply maintaining security levels—a goal that did not seem ambitious
early in the war—proved very ambitious and poorly aligned with the ways and means
the U.S. government planned to use. As the RAND Corporation observed in 2007,
this kind of misalignment represents “the most common cause for failure of nation-
building efforts.”80 When U.S. officials tried to remedy the misalignment, there was a
special focus on the gap between ends and means, particularly as security worsened.
This gap became particularly acute starting in 2003, when the U.S. diverted troops
and reconstruction funds to the invasion and reconstruction of Iraq. As Dobbins told
SIGAR, Bush administration officials soon “recognized that they had to resource [Iraq
or Afghanistan] more substantially, [and] they chose Iraq because the situation there had
degenerated more quickly. . . . They simply didn’t have the forces. . . . You had several
years of calculated neglect [in Afghanistan]. . . . It was intentional.”81
Thus, as the Taliban resurged, the ambition of the U.S. mission surged with them, but the
means kept falling further behind. According to a former senior NSC official, each of the
U.S. strategic reviews in 2003, 2006, 2008, and 2009 concluded that the reconstruction
and warfighting effort required more time and resources. Each review resulted in more
of both, but the requests kept coming.82
The strategy reviews in Washington and Kabul tended to imply that there was little to
be done about the escalations in the mission’s scope, as they were necessary to address
16 | STRATEGY
rapidly deteriorating security. Instead, the pliable variable was resources, which could
be quickly increased in an effort to align the ends and means. Indeed, with the necessary
political will, the U.S. government could and did obligate significant sums of money in
a very short period of time. As one senior USAID official told SIGAR, “The strategy was
‘money expended equals success.’”83 However, the notion that the reconstruction problem
was a mere money spigot to be turned on demonstrated a fundamental misunderstanding
of the U.S. government’s ability to harness any torrent of resources arriving in Afghanistan.
Specifically, with a particular focus on the ends and means, U.S. officials paid little
attention to the ways—whether the U.S. government was even equipped to undertake
something this ambitious in such an uncompromising environment, no matter how well
funded. The money spent was far more than Afghanistan could absorb (see pp. 26–27).84
It also grew to levels far beyond what U.S. agencies themselves could effectively absorb,
disburse, and oversee.85 As a result, U.S. officials could no longer claim the war was failing
FIGURE 4
U.S. APPROPRIATIONS AND U.S. TROOP LEVELS IN AFGHANISTAN BY FISCAL YEAR, 2002–2021
$18.0 120
Appropriated Funds ($ Billions)
Troop Levels (Thousands)
13.5 90
(Thousands)
($ Billions)
9.0 60
4.5 30
0 0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Note: Data from FY 2002 through FY 2007 are annual data, while data from FY 2008 through FY 2017 are averaged quarterly data. Data from FY 2002
through 2017 come from Congressional Research Service reports. Data from FY 2018 and FY 2019 come from the Brookings Institution, as no U.S.
government data on U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan are publicly available for this period. Data from FY 2020 and FY 2021 come from public statements
made by U.S. officials.
Source: SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, October 30, 2014, pp. 226–227; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
January 30, 2021, pp. 172–173; U.S. Congressional Research Service, “Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001–FY2012: Costs and Other
Potential Issues,” R40682, July 2, 2009, p. 9; U.S. Congressional Research Service, “Department of Defense Contractor and Troop Levels in
Afghanistan and Iraq: 2007–2020,” R44116, updated February 22, 2021, pp. 7–8, 13–14; The Brookings Institution, “Afghanistan Index: Tracking
variables of reconstruction and security in post-9/11 Afghanistan,” August 2020, p. 5; Elizabeth McLaughlin, “Trump says ‘it is time’ for US troops
to exit Afghanistan, undermining Taliban deal,” ABC News, May 27, 2020; White House, “Statement by Acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller
on Force Levels in Afghanistan,” January 15, 2021.
AUGUST 2021 | 17
for lack of investment; instead, they were forced to reckon with the mission’s severe
structural flaws. In other words, the ways were so problematic that ramping up the means
proved almost inconsequential—or even counterproductive—to the overall strategy.
The U.S. government refused opportunities to reconcile

with the defeated Taliban and declined to implement an
inclusive, post-conflict peace process, so the Taliban soon
rebuilt itself as a powerful insurgency.
Senior U.S. officials overseeing the war especially struggled to recognize this, and
usually claimed they were right on the cusp of progress. In 2011, British analyst Rory
Stewart documented how
Each new general in Afghanistan from 2002 to 2011 suggested that the
situation he had inherited was dismal; implied that this was because his
predecessor had had the wrong resources or strategy; and asserted that he
now had the resources, strategy, and leadership to deliver a decisive year.86
SIGAR likewise reviewed the public statements of senior State and DOD officials in
Washington and Kabul from 2011 to 2021 and found many similar claims.87 Assuming these
U.S. officials believed what they said in public, they all thought the problem was in their
immediate control to fix. So the gulf between their confidence and the poor results can
only point to severe deficiencies in their analysis of the ways.
For example, over the last two decades, the U.S. government has deployed more than
775,000 troops to Afghanistan and allocated more than $145 billion to rebuild the country.88
However, as the rest of this report details, such extraordinary resources will not have the
intended impact if those funds must be spent on compressed timelines that only worsen the
problem (Chapter 3), if whatever is built cannot be sustained in the first place (Chapter 4),
if the U.S. government lacks the experts to spend the money wisely (Chapter 5), if U.S.
officials insist on rebuilding the countryside while it is being torn apart by war (Chapter 6),
if U.S. officials do not understand the Afghan government and population (Chapter 7), and
if the U.S. government is unable to measure the impact of its expenditures (Chapter 8).
Had they seen these structural problems for what they were, U.S. officials would have had
ample reason to conclude that they could not sufficiently change Afghanistan’s institutions
and population with the tools at their disposal.
A DECADE OF WITHDRAWAL
The poor results of the surge of troops from 2009 to 2012 revealed the limits of the
U.S. government toolkit. In 2011, President Obama announced that all surge troops would
be out by 2012 and that troops would continue coming home at a “steady pace” thereafter
as “our mission [changes] from combat to support. By 2014, this process of transition
will be complete.”89 A year later, he announced that the defeat of al-Qaeda was within
reach, and that soon the strategy’s focus would narrow to training Afghan forces and
18 | STRATEGY
counterterrorism.90 The mission’s scope was thus scaling back amid claims of sufficient
progress to do so. The means soon followed suit. From 2012 to 2016, there was a 63
percent drop in U.S. military assistance and a 72 percent drop in U.S. civilian assistance.91
However, the drawdown laid bare just how hollow the alleged progress had been.
Contested territory that had been cleared by U.S. forces was hastily “transitioned” to
Afghan officials who were not ready, allowing the Taliban to seize districts as U.S. forces
vacated them.92 By 2015, President Obama implored Americans to be patient as worsening
security and governance made it clear the Afghan government was often unable to take the
reins. “We understood that as we transitioned, the Taliban would try to exploit some of our
movements out of particular areas, and that it would take time for Afghan security forces
to strengthen,” Obama said in October 2015.93
Yet more time did not help. In the three years following this speech, the Afghan
government lost control of an additional 16 percent of the country, according to DOD
officials, who then decided to stop tracking such data altogether.94 Then, when the United
States began withdrawing its final forces from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021, the
Taliban took the opportunity to seize more than a quarter of the country in a matter of
weeks, as Afghan security forces abandoned their posts or were overrun.95 Thus, what
Ambassador Nicholas Burns observed about the war’s early years has remained true ever
since: The Afghan government “cannot survive without us.”96
SHIFTING THE STRATEGY TOWARD NEGOTIATIONS

While most security trend lines were moving in the wrong direction, the end of the surge
compelled the U.S. government to start considering how it might withdraw without
defeating the Taliban. Beginning at least as early as 2010, U.S. officials participated
in a series of meetings with Taliban intermediaries and officials to facilitate a peace
agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government.97 By 2017, this logic had
gained considerable momentum. However, at that point, with most troops out and
the Taliban making gains, the U.S. government lacked the leverage to extract Taliban
concessions at the negotiating table. To compensate, the Trump administration modestly
increased troops and security assistance—and significantly increased bombings—in
order to drive the Taliban to the negotiating table and achieve the “ultimate objective”
of a political settlement that would end the war for all parties.98
Significant movement became possible when U.S. officials dropped a long-held

principle by agreeing to announce a tentative withdrawal date before “intra-Afghan”
negotiations had even begun.99 U.S. officials hoped this major offering would induce
a series of Taliban concessions, including reducing violence and breaking ties with al-
Qaeda, neither of which have happened.100 In fact, since the February 2020 U.S.-Taliban
agreement that formalized the arrangement, the Taliban has significantly increased
violence, including assassination campaigns of government officials, journalists, and
civil society actors.101 Meanwhile, the Taliban’s ties to al-Qaeda only appear to be
deepening, with al-Qaeda fighters now spread across 15 Afghan provinces.102
AUGUST 2021 | 19
In other words, the U.S. government’s neglect of the strategy’s “ways” did not end
with the surge but continued even as the U.S. scaled back its investment. U.S. officials
ramped up the war without properly considering how they would fulfil the strategy, and
ramped down in the misguided hope that they could influence the Taliban’s decision
making through negotiations. Because the group has been ascendant on the battlefield
for more than a decade, it was poorly motivated to indulge peace talks beyond what
was necessary to secure the release of more than 5,000 prisoners, ensure the removal of
U.S. and UN sanctions, accrue international legitimacy, and claim credit for negotiating
the departure of U.S. forces.103 Notably, none of those objectives required compromise
with the Afghan government. Describing recent intra-Afghan peace talks in Doha, one
senior Afghan government negotiator said, “[The Taliban] thought they were there just
to discuss the terms of [the government’s] surrender. They said, ‘We don’t need to talk
to you. We can just take over.’”104
The Afghan government “cannot survive without us.”

—Ambassador Nicholas Burns
In April 2021, the Biden administration announced that a full U.S. military withdrawal
would be complete by September, regardless of Taliban advances or where prospects
for peace stood.105 The decision left uncertain whether even the modest gains of the
last two decades will prove sustainable. It was also the first explicit recognition by the
U.S. government that its strategy across two decades had failed to bring the desired
change and stood little chance of doing so.106
Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, participates in
a signing ceremony with Taliban deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, in Doha, Qatar, on February 29,
2020. (State photo by Ron Przysucha)
20 | STRATEGY
QUESTIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS

• How can State improve its ability to oversee reconstruction strategy and planning
between large reconstruction missions? What institutional changes would be
necessary to create that capability and authority? What would an office look like
that lays the conceptual groundwork for reconstruction missions; conducts high-
level thinking about aligning ends, ways, and means; and is operationally capable
of overseeing and coordinating interagency reconstruction missions?
• What kind of mandate and funding would the Congress need to give State in order
to develop the expertise and bandwidth to effectively manage reconstruction strategy
and operations? How can that mandate be made strong enough to continue and
thrive even without an ongoing large-scale reconstruction mission?
Relevant SIGAR Recommendations from Previous Lessons Learned Reports

State should take the lead in laying out a robust whole-of-government stabilization strategy,
USAID should be the lead implementer, and DOD should support their efforts.107
The Congress should consider requiring State to develop and implement a stabilization
strategy within a broader campaign strategy and in coordination with USAID and DOD.108
The NSC should establish an interagency task force to formulate policy and lead strategy
on anticorruption in contingency operations.109
DOD should lead the creation of new interagency doctrine for security sector assistance
that includes best practices from Afghanistan, Iraq, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Vietnam.110
The Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff should update U.S. doctrine to clarify how the U.S.
military provides security sector assistance as part of a multinational coalition. The doctrine
should provide clear guidance for establishing and maintaining coordination between
U.S. departments and agencies operating at the embassy in the host country.111
At the start of any major reconstruction effort, the National Security Council should direct
the creation of an interagency working group led by USAID and staffed at the appropriate
levels to plan and coordinate private sector development activities across civilian and
military agencies.112
State should require that, for each country designated a major drug-transit or drug-
producing country and receiving U.S. counternarcotics assistance, the U.S. ambassador
to that country convene all U.S. agencies providing counternarcotics assistance to design
a strategy that identifies actionable steps to integrate a counternarcotics perspective into
larger security, development, and governance objectives. This strategy should be devised in
close cooperation with the recipient country and should set forth practical and sustainable
counterdrug goals.113
AUGUST 2021 | 21
LESSON 2
The U.S. government consistently
underestimated the amount of time
required to rebuild Afghanistan,
and created unrealistic timelines
and expectations that prioritized
spending quickly. These choices
increased corruption and reduced
the effectiveness of programs.
CHAPTER 3
TIMELINES
P redicting how long a reconstruction mission might last or how many resources
it might require is a fraught exercise. Few could have predicted the U.S. government
would spend billions of dollars annually in Afghanistan for 20 years. Yet reconstruction
President George W. Bush
meets with the National
Security Council in
the Situation Room
of the White House
estimates are not conducted in vacuums; they are driven by policymakers reflecting on
on September 20, 2001.
what is in the interest of the American people. SIGAR has encountered no policymakers (White House photo)
who think it is appropriate to be deeply involved in Afghanistan for 20 years, but a chain
of decisions made by these policymakers ensured that would happen.
Not only did U.S. officials misjudge in good faith the time and resources required
to rebuild Afghanistan, they also prioritized their own political preferences for what
Afghanistan’s reconstruction should look like, rather than what they could realistically
achieve. Early in the war, U.S. officials denied the mission resources necessary
to have an impact, and implicit deadlines made the task even harder. As security
deteriorated and demands on donors increased, so did pressure to demonstrate
progress. U.S. officials created explicit timelines in the mistaken belief that a
decision in Washington could transform the calculus of complex Afghan institutions,
powerbrokers, and communities contested by the Taliban.
By design, these timelines ignored conditions on the ground and forced reckless
compromises in U.S. programs, creating perverse incentives to spend quickly and
AUGUST 2021 | 23
focus on short-term goals. Rather than reform and improve, Afghan institutions and
powerbrokers found ways to co-opt the funds for their own purposes, which only
worsened the problems that these programs were meant to address.
By the time U.S. officials recognized that the timelines had backfired, they simply found
new ways to ignore conditions on the ground. Troops and resources were drawn down
in full view of the Afghan government’s inability to address instability or even prevent it
from worsening.
2001–2005: HARMFUL SPENDING PATTERNS ESTABLISHED

In 2002, the prevailing assumption within the Bush administration was that the
conflict was over. Senior U.S. officials began to consider their immediate post-conflict
reconstruction objectives. However, establishing a reconstruction timeline first required
them to acknowledge that proper reconstruction was even a goal at all. Bush had
campaigned on a platform against U.S. involvement in nation-building activities and had
opposed armed humanitarian actions previously taken by the Clinton administration.114
Weeks after 9/11, Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz cautioned that in
Afghanistan “there is a lot that could be done with just basic food, medicine, and
education programs, if we don’t set the bar too high.”115 In policy guidance, Under
Secretary of Defense Douglas Feith was more blunt: “The U.S. should not plunge into
a nation-building project.”116
In keeping with an aversion to nation building, a focus on counter-terrorism, and a “light

footprint approach” to the war, the first few years of the U.S. reconstruction effort were
significantly underresourced.117 Funds were inadequate to address the many challenges
presented by a country whose government was unable to defend its borders or protect
its citizens, and where schools were shuttered and food scarce.118
Few resources were initially available for reconstructing the country’s security forces.119
Short time horizons compelled the U.S. government to plan for a small, Afghan-
sustainable force.120 According to a U.S. military official charged with designing the
Afghan National Army, U.S. troops were expected to depart by 2004. There was not
enough time or interest to expand the force beyond Kabul.121 Meanwhile, a German-led
police capacity building program, which had started in 2002, proceeded glacially. This
put local security outside of Kabul under the control of untrained officers affiliated with
militias and strongmen.122 This may have been by design: Resources and commitments
were so thin that U.S. military officials were nervous about building national security
forces because they might “threaten the influence of regional warlords,” according
to the same U.S. military official.123 In what would become a pattern, a perpetual sense
of imminent departure reduced the ability of U.S. officials to plan for the long term.
Efforts to build the capacity of Afghan civilian institutions were similarly

underresourced. According to former U.S. Special Envoy to Afghanistan James Dobbins,
“When the new Afghan government was set up, the ministers who had been selected by
24 | TIMELINES
the Bonn conference arrived, and what they got from the UN was one satellite phone
and one car.”124
However, despite low funding levels, there was enormous pressure on USAID to
demonstrate progress to the Congress, U.S. taxpayers, and the Afghan people.125
The National Security Council (NSC) decided to prioritize large-scale investments in
infrastructure. In 2002, overruling objections by USAID Administrator Andrew Natsios,
the NSC tasked the agency with building the Kabul to Kandahar portion of the Ring
Road (see Figure 5).126 A decision to expedite construction in order to complete the
work before the 2004 U.S. and Afghan presidential elections required the sacrifice
of quality standards.127
A perpetual sense of imminent departure reduced the ability

of U.S. officials to plan for the long term.
In order to fund the Ring Road, USAID had to slash money from other programs,
including agriculture and governance programming.128 According to a U.S. Treasury
FIGURE 5
THE RING ROAD IN AFGHANISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TAJIKISTAN CHINA
BADAKHSHAN
JOWZJAN BALKH KUNDUZ
TURKMENISTAN
Mazar-e TAKHAR
Sharif
SAMANGAN BAGHLAN
FARYAB
SAR-E PUL PANJSHIR
NURISTAN KUNAR
BADGHIS PARWAN KAPISA
BAMYAN LAGHMAN
Kabul
WARDAK KABUL
Herat NANGARHAR
HERAT GHOR
DAYKUNDI LOGAR PAKTIYA
Ghazni
GHAZNI KHOST
URUZGAN
FARAH
PAKTIKA PAKISTAN
ZABUL
Kandahar
IRAN NIMROZ HELMAND
KANDAHAR
Ring Road (Highway 1)
Source: SIGAR visualization.
AUGUST 2021 | 25
USAID road construction efforts along the Khost-Gardez road in March 2010. (USAID photo)
Department memo from late 2002, the focus on the Ring Road meant that “existing
[U.S. government] reconstruction projects are on the verge of shutting down due to
lack of funds.”129 Thus began a trend that would last for more than a decade: The United
States prioritized tangible projects on which money could be spent and success claimed
more quickly, over less tangible types of programming with the potential to be more
enduring, such as capacity building.130 In 2002, the United States established its first
interagency Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) to expand programming outside
Kabul. The number of PRTs had increased to 22 by the summer of 2006.131
By 2003, the Bush administration had accepted that nation building was unavoidable,
and by 2005 it increased reconstruction funding to more than four times what it
had been in 2002.132 By 2004, U.S. reconstruction spending had exceeded an amount
equivalent to 45 percent of Afghan GDP, the upper range of a country’s theoretical
absorptive capacity. While economists and aid experts dispute where this threshold
lies (some estimate it to be as low as 15 percent), there is a broad consensus that aid
saturation is reached at or below 45 percent of GDP. U.S. funding would remain above
that threshold range for another decade (see Figure 6 on the next page).133
Absorptive capacity is the amount of international aid that a country can receive before it
causes significant economic, social, and political disruptions and becomes counterproductive.
Developing countries with fragile economies, such as those experiencing prolonged conflict,
are believed to have a lower threshold for aid saturation. International aid above the
absorptive capacity threshold can lead to waste, fraud, and increased corruption.134
26 | TIMELINES
FIGURE 6
U.S.-APPROPRIATED RECONSTRUCTION FUNDING LEVELS AS A PERCENTAGE OF AFGHANISTAN’S GDP
120%
100
80
60
40
TYPICAL RANGE OF AID SATURATION
20
0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Note: The aid saturation point is the theoretical point at which a state has reached its capacity for absorbing aid. Aid provided beyond that point may
be counterproductive. The red line shows U.S. reconstruction funding as a percentage of Afghan GDP over time. The grey area reflects the generally
accepted range of aid saturation, typically 15 to 45% of GDP.
Source: SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, October 30, 2014, pp. 226–227; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
January 30, 2021, pp. 172–173; World Bank, “World Development Indicators,” World Bank Databank, last updated February 17, 2021, accessed
March 3, 2021. For more on the theory of absorptive capacity, see Jonathan Beynon, “Poverty Efficient Aid Allocations: Collier/Dollar Revisited,”
Overseas Development Institute, ESAU Working Paper no. 2, November 2003, p. 6; Paulo de Renzio, “Increased Aid vs Absorptive Capacity: Challenges
and Opportunities Towards 2015,” IDS Bulletin, vol. 36, no. 3, September 2005, p. 22; Reda Abou Serie, Laban Ayiro, Marlon Breve Reyes, Luis
Crouch, George Godia, and Geraldo Martins, “Absorptive Capacity: From donor perspectives to recipients’ professional views,” prepared under contract
for UNESCO, 2009, pp. 5–6.
As spending increased, the United States initially failed to recognize the existential
threat that corruption posed to the reconstruction effort, missing an opportunity to
make anticorruption efforts a central part of its strategy.135 The basic assumption was
that corruption was created by individual Afghans and that donor interventions were
the solution.136 It would take years for the United States to realize that it was fueling
corruption with its excessive spending and lack of oversight.137
U.S. agencies made a fateful decision around this time: As funding spiked, they awarded
the vast majority of it to contractors to implement programming, correctly determining
that the Afghan government lacked the capacity to manage the money directly. (Between
2002 and 2021, U.S. agencies directed only approximately 12 percent of reconstruction
assistance “on-budget,” through the Afghan government.)138 They failed to invest
equally in building the Afghan government’s capacity so that it could eventually assume
responsibility for these functions and end its reliance on donor funding and oversight.139
That the U.S. government was still focused on short-term gains many years into the
mission did not seem to alarm U.S. officials. With no political patience for the long way,
U.S. agencies identified shortcuts that proved not particularly short and perhaps longer
than the long way. Rather than revisit their assumptions when progress proved elusive,
U.S. officials concluded that it would be better to power through the shortcut by adding
even more money.
AUGUST 2021 | 27
USAID and State administered roughly 80 percent of reconstruction funds allocated

before 2005, but it became clear that USAID could not spend money as quickly as
it was appropriated.140 As noted in The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly,
SIGAR’s lessons learned report on monitoring and evaluation, the agency suffered
from “a constellation of human resource and organizational issues, such as short tours
of duty and work overload, which limited institutional memory and effectiveness.”141
Understaffing also undermined program effectiveness at State, where SIGAR found that
for oversight staff, “overwhelming responsibilities meant that corners were inevitably
cut.”142 Finally, DOD suffered from both insufficient numbers of contract management
personnel and a lack of expertise from those that were available.143
With no political patience for the long way, U.S. agencies identified
shortcuts that proved not particularly short and perhaps longer
than the long way.
2006–2008: SPENDING RAMPS UP

Although in early 2002 Afghanistan was considered a post-conflict country, by 2006 it
had become apparent that it was not. An ascendant Taliban, a weak central government
beset by corruption, and an increasingly disorganized multilateral reconstruction
effort prompted the Bush administration to reconsider its initial aversion to a more
pronounced U.S. role. As President Bush later recalled, “The multilateral approach
to rebuilding, hailed by so many in the international community, was failing.” His
reluctant conclusion: “America had to take on more of the responsibility.”144 As noted
by the RAND Corporation, although Bush eventually moved away from his aversion to
extended foreign interventions in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, he did so only slowly, and
“remained wary of long-term entanglements.”145
This reticence was not reflected in funding levels, which generally continued growing,
but rather in a refusal to look more than a year or two in the future. U.S. reconstruction
spending spiked in 2007 to almost three times what it had been the year before, driven
by concerns about increasing insecurity, insurgent activity, and poppy production.146
Overcorrecting the underresourcing of the first few years, the Congress now put massive
pressure on agencies to spend money as quickly as possible. Former NSC “war czar”
Douglas Lute described the prevailing ethos as “spend, spend, spend.”147 The NSC and
the military also forced USAID to accept impossible goals, driven by political timelines,
for how fast it would build things like schools and clinics.148
During this period, concerns that too much power was concentrated in the Afghan
President’s office led the United States to place more emphasis on subnational
governance.149 In order to do so, it relied more heavily on PRTs, which had been
established in 28 provinces by 2010.150 U.S. personnel stationed at PRTs engaged directly
with Afghan government officials at the subnational level and funded and contracted
28 | TIMELINES
Members of Khost PRT meet with engineers and beneficiaries to discuss an upcoming infrastructure project
on May 2, 2010. (DOD photo)
out the projects they identified. This was a way to bypass the Afghan budgetary system,
which centralized all power over financial planning and prioritization in Kabul.151
As U.S. and coalition military forces tried to get ahead of growing insecurity, the United
States turned to rapidly expanding the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces on
a condensed training and development timeline. Worried about increasing insecurity,
the United States took over responsibility for building the Afghan National Police from
the Germans. Then, by threatening to withhold funding, senior U.S. officials forced
the Afghan government to agree to increase the size of the police. Likewise, in 2008,
just a year after cutting the length of basic training by almost 50 percent, the U.S. and
Afghan governments agreed to expand the size of the Afghan National Army—without
considering the associated fiscal and resource requirements.152
The rapid growth of the force, combined with insufficient donor focus on building
capacity in its enablers, stretched logistics to the breaking point. A 2008 report by the
U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that fewer than one-fourth of police
had mentors present to provide training and verify that they were on duty. Meanwhile,
the force continued to face shortages of equipment, including vehicles, radios, and
body armor.153 The eagerness to make fast progress created a broader tendency among
U.S. officials to overfund and overemphasize improving combat capabilities of the
Afghan security services, at the expense of its governing institutions and enablers, such
as logistics.154
The lack of attention paid to security sector governance meant that corruption ran
rampant in the Afghan security forces.155 An international official recalled that a
reformer within the Afghan police whispered to him at the end of a meeting, “Why don’t
AUGUST 2021 | 29
you just stop giving us money?”156 Physical security, political stability, and immediate
reconstruction needs took priority over the slow, iterative work of building good
governance and the rule of law, including combating corruption. A senior U.S. official
recalled the perceived tradeoffs between security objectives and anticorruption, saying
that U.S. agencies did not want to aid and abet corruption, but national security was the
higher priority. He recalled a pragmatic willingness to work with unsavory powerbrokers
in order to pursue U.S. counterterrorism objectives, with the assumption that eventually,
the United States would hold the malign powerbrokers to account. That rarely
happened, and the problem would only get worse.157
2009–2011: AN 18-MONTH SURGE AND A FLOOD OF CASH

After President Obama’s January 2009 inauguration, the White House undertook a
strategic review of the effort in Afghanistan. Obama was determined to prioritize
support for Afghanistan, where attacks and insecurity were spiraling out of control.
According to SIGAR’s Stabilization report:
Obama personally involved himself in the development of not only a new

strategy, but also a new and definitive timeline for the new approach. . . . The
president reportedly believed, with good reason, that an open-ended surge
would divert critical resources away from mitigating the damage from the
2008 financial crisis; it could give the military more room to pressure the
White House into future extensions or escalations; and it could further
cultivate Afghan dependency on U.S. aid.158
In December 2009, he decided on an ambitious surge of troops and civilians that

would pursue a strategy of counterinsurgency and building the capacity of the Afghan
government to protect Afghans and expand its reach. At the same time, he limited
the surge to 18 months, at which point it would either be successful enough to scale
back, or enough of a failure to justify pulling those resources back anyway. As then-
commander of U.S. Central Command General David Petraeus later recounted to SIGAR:
The timeline was just sprung on us. We had no discussion of that during the
process. Two days before the president made the [announcement], . . . we all
got called and were told to be in the Oval Office that night for the president to
lay out what he would announce two evenings later. And he laid it out, there
it is. Take it or leave it. He said, we’re going to begin the drawdown in the
summer of 2011. None of us had heard that before. And we were then asked,
are you all okay with that? He went around the room and everyone said yes.
And it was take it or leave it. . . . Until that point in the review, nobody ever
thought this was going to last forever, but nobody presumed we would begin
drawing down in July 2011.159
Regardless of how much time the president’s advisors were given to react to a time-
constrained surge, they all chose to support it rather than highlight the gaps between
the evolving strategy’s scope, resources, and timeline. Thus, as SIGAR’s stabilization
report notes, the U.S. government “set in motion a series of events that fostered
unrealistic expectations of what could be achieved in a few years and ensured
the U.S. government’s stabilization strategy would not succeed.” Specifically, the
30 | TIMELINES
A farmer takes a bag of fertilizer at the Civil-Military Operations Center at Camp Hansen in Marjah District,
Helmand Province, on April 25, 2010. (U.S. Marine Corps photo)
compressed timeline “had a profound and harmful impact on countless downstream

decisions regarding planning, staffing, and programming.”160
Despite mounting evidence that the United States had been unable to effectively manage
the previous level of funding, reconstruction spending spiked further as U.S. officials
scrambled to make the most of the short surge. Spending rose more than 50 percent
between 2009 and 2010.161
By 2010, U.S. reconstruction spending was equivalent to more than 100 percent of
Afghanistan’s GDP, or more than double the country’s estimated maximum absorptive
capacity.162 “During the surge, there were massive amounts of people and money going
into Afghanistan,” David Marsden, a former USAID official, told SIGAR. “It’s like pouring
a lot of water into a funnel; if you pour it too fast, the water overflows that funnel onto
the ground. We were flooding the ground.”163 Corruption, which had been endemic prior
to the surge, metastasized and swelled to an unprecedented level.164 In 2010, a State
Department cable from Kabul reported Afghan National Security Advisor Rangin
Spanta as saying that “corruption is not just a problem for the system of governance
in Afghanistan; it is the system of governance.”165
As the pace of spending overwhelmed U.S. systems for ensuring the accountability
and effectiveness of its programs, agencies made herculean efforts to increase their
staffing. Even so, the pace of implementation still dramatically outstripped management
capacity.166 For example, according to Paul O’Brien, vice president of policy at
Oxfam America, internal USAID protocols recommended that each manager oversee
roughly $10 million in grants—yet during this period that number reached upwards of
$100 million.167
AUGUST 2021 | 31
Even basic oversight fell to the wayside.168 Enormous pressure to demonstrate progress
to the Congress and the American and Afghan people distorted accountability systems
into spin machines. There was little appetite for honest assessments of what worked
and what did not.169 “When you push large amounts of money through and there’s no
way to pull it back, it creates an incentive for corruption,” one former senior U.S. official
told SIGAR. “Corrupt actors create ways to bleed the system for all it is worth, because
they know the money will keep flowing no matter what they do.”170 Consulting Afghan
government officials and project beneficiaries during project design and implementation
slowed things down—so U.S. agencies and their contractors often did not bother.171
By spending money faster than it could be accounted for, the U.S. government ultimately
achieved the opposite of what it intended: it fueled corruption, delegitimized the Afghan
government, and increased insecurity.172
“Corruption is not just a problem for the system of governance

in Afghanistan; it is the system of governance.”
—Rangin Spanta, former Afghan national security advisor
A senior NATO official validated then-Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s complaints that
the international community had created parallel government institutions, telling SIGAR
they each “did their own thing . . . without regard to what the [Afghan] government
was doing.”173 As a result, the U.S. government too often funded programs that were
inappropriate or that exacerbated conflict, and that the Afghan government could
not sustain.174 In 2021, SIGAR audited a sample of 60 U.S. infrastructure projects in
Afghanistan, and it found that $723.8 million, or 91 percent, had gone toward assets
that were unused or abandoned, were not used as intended, had deteriorated, were
destroyed, or some combination of the above.175
The United States spent $4.7 billion trying to make district-level governments in
contested areas seem responsive to their constituents.176 However, the United States
failed to acknowledge that the districts had no budget to even maintain what had been
built, much less continue the work.177 Worse, with the off-budget donor spigot turned
on full blast—directing funds to implementing partners, not the Afghan government—
the Afghan government faced no pressure to decentralize its budgetary process, which
remains dysfunctional.178
The short timeline under which the Obama administration demanded progress by
the Afghan National Army resulted in U.S. trainers and advisors filling critical gaps
in Afghan capability. In the short term, this made the Army more capable against the
Taliban. In the long term, it made Afghan forces dependent on U.S. enablers, such as
close air support, medical evacuation, and leadership.179
At the same time, the U.S. Army pressured USAID to fund unsustainable programs, often
successfully.180 For example, in 2009, General Stanley McChrystal believed that rapidly
32 | TIMELINES
expanding access to electricity would improve the Afghan government’s legitimacy.

Accordingly, he supported the construction and fueling of two massive diesel generators
in Kandahar City, dismissing the Afghan Finance Minister’s and USAID officials’
objections to the project. The generators provided electricity to approximately 650,000
people out of the province’s estimated population of 1 to 2 million with expensive
imported fuel.181 The expectation was that the project would be a “bridging solution”
until longer-term power projects could be completed. Although USAID resisted paying
for the project, it was ultimately funded by the Afghanistan Infrastructure Fund, which
was jointly administered by USAID and the U.S. military.182 Costs significantly exceeded
the revenue generated, and after funding for U.S. fuel subsidies dried up in September
2015, electricity production at the two generators plummeted. The resulting widespread
power outages exposed the project as a bridge to nowhere.183 As of February 2016, only
20 percent of Kandahar City residents had access to electricity.184
2012–2014: RAPID TRANSITION TIMELINE REVEALS THE LIMITS

OF U.S. EFFORTS
In November 2010 President Obama announced a 2014 withdrawal date for U.S. combat
forces and the transfer of security to Afghan forces, which would commence in 2011.185
As General John Allen, former commander of the International Security Assistance
Force, told SIGAR, “We went from an end-state to an end-date.”186 Just as the surge had
forced U.S. officials to make the most of the temporary glut of resources, the rapidly
approaching 2014 transition created another mad dash. U.S. officials and partners raced
to defeat the Taliban, expand the government’s reach, and transition on schedule.187 As
during the surge, the transition schedule compelled U.S. and coalition troops and civilian
agencies to prioritize areas too insecure for any chance of success. They hopscotched
President Obama speaks with his national security team for Afghanistan and Pakistan issues in the Oval Office
on June 25, 2013. (White House photo by Pete Souza)
AUGUST 2021 | 33
around the map, clearing an area of insurgents and briefly initiating stabilization
programming before moving on to the next clearing operation.188 Unsurprisingly, the
impact of these hasty and superficial interventions rarely lasted longer than the presence
of coalition forces. Violence often spiked as soon as troops departed and insurgents
reassumed control.189
As troop levels began to fall in 2011, so did reconstruction funding.190 In response, the
United States gradually reoriented its programs to the reality that the Afghan government
and security forces would have to take over the many functions that donors and their
contractors had assumed. By 2014, total reconstruction spending was about 40 percent
of its peak from just three years before.191 This dramatic reduction in spending revealed
that the country’s GDP growth, which had averaged about 10 percent between 2003 and
2012, had been a mirage; the gains had merely been the result of an overheated wartime
economy, and were not sustainable.192 The International Monetary Fund estimated that all
of the jobs that had been created during the surge had been lost by 2016.193
Afghanistan did not simply revert to its pre-surge state: Donor aid had reworked its
Elite capture occurs power structures. Elite capture had created new grievances and exacerbated old ones,
when economic and as some groups benefited from the war and others were alienated and driven toward
political elites divert or the insurgency. The winners often ran the government for personal gain, and many
steal resources meant committed major crimes with impunity, creating a kind of mafia rule.194 Some became
for the population. wealthy off U.S. contracts and used their money to buy immunity from prosecution
by paying for seats in parliament.195
The flood of cash also sabotaged donor efforts to foster economic development.
It strengthened the Afghan currency, making imports cheaper, pricing exports out of the
market, worsening the trade deficit, and encouraging poppy production. By reducing
revenues, these market distortions exacerbated Afghanistan’s aid dependence.196
“We went from an end-state to an end-date.”

—General John Allen
The United States’ increased focus on building the capacity of the Afghan government,
which had begun in 2010 and 2011, continued in the post-surge period. However, this
proved easier in theory than in practice. In reality, the United States still struggled
even to implement policies it had adopted years before. For example, years after a
2010 pledge to shift from merely consulting the Afghan government to working through
it, USAID’s Stability in Key Areas programs, which ran from 2011 to 2015, continued
to circumvent the Afghan government in order to do more, quicker.197 The extreme
pressure to demonstrate progress, generally measured by money spent, resulted in
shortcuts by the United States and its contractors. By soliciting the Afghan government’s
input into their projects and then frequently ignoring it, they undermined the goals
of building the capacity of the Afghan government and strengthening its legitimacy.198
34 | TIMELINES
There were, of course, good reasons for the U.S. hesitancy to fund the Afghan
government directly. In 2014, for example, SIGAR discovered that bid rigging and
corrupt payoffs to Afghan officials had inflated the cost of a $1 billion U.S.-funded
Afghan Ministry of Defense issued fuel procurement contract.199 However, the U.S.
decision to keep such a high percentage of its assistance off-budget for so many years
allowed it to kick the issue of building the Afghan government’s capacity down the road.
2015–PRESENT: COMING TO TERMS WITH REDUCED TROOPS,

ASSISTANCE, AND INFLUENCE
The United States’ determination to draw down clashed with realities on the ground.
The Taliban remained resilient, and the insurgency became emboldened by the
drawdown of U.S. and coalition military forces. In 2013, General Joseph Dunford stated,
“The gains that we have made to date are not going to be sustainable without continued
international commitment. . . . We are not where we need to be yet.” Less than a year
later, in March 2014, he warned the Senate Armed Services Committee that, upon
coalition troops’ withdrawal, “the Afghan security forces will begin to deteriorate.”
He added that “the only debate is the pace of that deterioration.”200
In 2015, President Obama was forced to change timelines two more times following
deliberations with the Afghan government and his national security staff. In March 2015,
he announced that the United States would maintain its 9,800 troop strength through
the end of 2015 and would transition to a Kabul-based embassy presence by the end of
2016.201 Then, in October 2015, Obama announced that the United States would halt its
military withdrawal from Afghanistan, keep the current force of 9,800 troops in place
through most of 2016, and keep thousands in the country through the end of his term.202
By 2017, President Trump was inclined to avoid timeline-based drawdowns. In his

August 2017 Afghanistan strategy speech, he declared that “conditions on the ground—
not arbitrary timetables—will guide our strategy from now on.”203 As a part of this
new strategy the Trump administration authorized U.S. Special Representative for
Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad to begin negotiating directly with the
Taliban.204 In February 2020, the United States and the Taliban finalized an agreement
that created a schedule for a complete U.S. withdrawal in exchange for counterterrorism
assurances from the Taliban and their commitment to negotiate with the Afghan
government on the future of the country.205
While declining to anchor the drawdown in a calendar, the Trump administration still
continued its predecessor’s tendency to draw down troops and resources with little
concern for conditions on the ground. Just as the Afghan government and Taliban were
about to sit down to begin exploring peace talks, the Trump administration announced it
would reduce troops even faster than required, undermining any U.S. leverage that might
have been used to motivate the Taliban to negotiate with the Afghan government.206 With
their departure, the number of troops conducting oversight of U.S. security assistance
AUGUST 2021 | 35
A U.S. Air Force airman mentors an Afghan National Army military policeman during training at Kabul Military
Training Center. (U.S. Air Force photo by Cecilio M. Ricardo, Jr.)
decreased as well, making it harder for them to address dysfunction, lack of capacity,
and corruption within the Afghan army and police.
The Trump administration continued its predecessor’s tendency to

draw down troops and resources with little concern for conditions
on the ground.
Meanwhile, by 2021, U.S. funding for Afghan forces—the vast majority of U.S. reconstruction
spending—had fallen to its lowest level since 2008.207 Between the Trump administration’s
first budget in 2018 and its last in 2021, U.S. funding for Afghan forces fell 36 percent as
troops were slowly withdrawn.208 In April 2021, the Biden administration announced the
withdrawal of all U.S. troops, but then requested a funding increase for Afghan security
forces to $3.33 billion for fiscal year 2022.209 Decreasing troop levels while increasing
assistance levels is likely to strain the oversight of training and equipping Afghan security
forces. Historically, this compels program managers to become preoccupied with more
immediate goals, like merely keeping the Afghan government afloat.210 With oversight
capabilities dwindling and $6.68 billion still in the pipeline for Afghanistan reconstruction,
the risk of waste, fraud, and abuse is certain to increase.211
TIMELINES AND POLITICAL PRESSURE ARE PERENNIAL

Rebuilding Afghanistan was going to be extremely challenging regardless of the approach
that the U.S. government and its allies took. However, many U.S. government decisions
created a counterproductive cycle: Short-term goals generated short timelines, which
created new problems that could only be addressed by more short-term goals. When
36 | TIMELINES
none of that worked, the U.S. government developed yet another short-term goal:
withdrawing all troops almost immediately, even though it risked depriving the continuing
reconstruction mission of the personnel needed to oversee security assistance.
The U.S. government is poor at predicting the resources and length of time necessary
to rebuild complex political institutions in other countries. Being poor predictors makes
it tempting for policymakers to assume they can effect change via sheer willpower,
and to impose timelines or political pressures to rapidly complete a mission that is
exceptionally difficult on any timeline. Elected and appointed officials are themselves
often under immense pressure, which then cascades onto embattled reconstruction
missions. The painstaking work of rebuilding institutions was simply never compatible
with the urgency with which the U.S. government perpetually operated in Afghanistan.
This leaves policymakers with a frustrating quandary: Success is only possible on

prolonged timelines, and even then it is hardly guaranteed. Political pressure to find
quick solutions to problems which defy quick solutions is likely to remain a fixture
for all reconstruction efforts. The question is how to mitigate this tendency.

• As these missions often grow slowly, what mandates, training, and resources do
agencies need in order to plan for long-term efforts to reduce violent conflict, even
while those efforts are still small in scale?
• In conflict-affected environments, what funding mechanisms are necessary to allow
U.S. agencies to develop flexible plans for programs at least a decade into the future?
• How can the Congress give U.S. agencies the room to plan for long-term engagement,
even if policymakers are unsure of their own long-term commitment? What does
oversight look like if even low-cost engagements in conflict-affected environments
require long-term planning?

The Congress may wish to consider creating a long-term private sector development fund
to reduce the pressure to use spending levels as a measure of progress and avoid sharp
funding fluctuations during reconstruction efforts.212
Development assistance programs that aim to incentivize a shift away from illicit drug
production should be sustained for more than five years, support farmers’ household
income diversification, and consider the needs of different socioeconomic groups.213
Reintegration efforts, whether pursued through targeted programs or wider development

assistance, should support a long-term transition to an alternative livelihood, not just
provide short-term assistance.214
AUGUST 2021 | 37
LESSON 3
Many of the institutions and
infrastructure projects the United States
built were not sustainable.
CHAPTER 4
SUSTAINABILITY
R econstruction programs are not like humanitarian aid; they are not meant
to provide temporary relief. Instead, they serve as a foundation for building
the necessary institutions of government, civil society, and commerce to sustain
Members of PRT Kunar
prepare to examine a
bridge under construction
in Marawara District, Kunar
Province, in 2005. (Photo
the country indefinitely. Every mile of road the United States built and every
by Harold Ingram)
government employee it trained was thought to serve as a springboard for even
more improvements and enable the reconstruction effort to end. However, the
U.S. government often failed to ensure its projects were sustainable over the long
term. Each time a costly project goes unused or falls into disrepair, it marks a failure
in the reconstruction effort.
Over the past two decades, the problem of sustainability has resulted in billions
of dollars of waste for the U.S. government. A 2021 SIGAR report found that the
United States has spent nearly $7.8 billion on capital assets in Afghanistan, including
buildings, transmission lines and substations, roads and bridges, motor vehicles, and
aircraft. Of that total, nearly 31 percent—$2.4 billion—was spent on assets that were
not being used as intended, remain unused, or had been abandoned or destroyed.215
Significant waste was created when U.S.-funded technical advisors to Afghan
institutions, under intense pressure to demonstrate short-term progress, took over
core functions of the Afghan government and security forces instead of teaching their
AUGUST 2021 | 39
skills to their Afghan counterparts.216 These failures are likely to become even more
apparent as donor funding continues to decline and the Afghan government assumes
greater responsibility for financing and overseeing the maintenance and operations
of donor-funded infrastructure and programming.
POLICIES EMPHASIZE SUSTAINABILITY, BUT PRACTICES

FALL SHORT
Over the past 20 years, Congress and U.S. agencies have repeatedly adopted
requirements that sustainability be taken into account during program planning
and implementation. In practice, these requirements were rarely carried out. In most
cases, the political desire to show progress manifested in bureaucratic pressure that
outweighed countervailing directives to ensure that progress would last.
In December 2009, the Army updated its policy to require its staff to plan for, assess,
and document a project’s anticipated sustainability. However, little changed on the
ground.217 USAID followed suit in 2011 with the Administrator’s Sustainability Guidance.
In recognition of the coalition-wide reorientation to drawing down and the need to
leave behind a government that could sustain itself, the guidance required that all
projects be aligned with the Afghan government’s own National Development Strategy,
and that concerns about the Afghan government’s fiscal and technical ability to sustain
each project be addressed during the planning phase.218 Six years later, that goal had
not been achieved. A 2017 strategic evaluation of USAID’s Afghanistan programming
described some senior USAID officials expressing the belief that the goal of Afghan-led,
sustainable development remained “largely aspirational.”219
Since 2014, the Congress has repeatedly tried to ensure that reconstruction
programming was sustainable by prohibiting any projects that the Afghan government
could not continue on their own.220 In 2017, the National Defense Authorization Act
required DOD to conduct independent evaluations of the sustainability of significant
programs that funded, trained, and supported foreign militaries around the world.
However, SIGAR found in July 2021 that it remains unclear whether the department
has done so.221
THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT’S FISCAL AND CAPACITY LIMITATIONS

Another reason for the Afghan government’s inability to assume responsibility for many
U.S. reconstruction efforts was its own fiscal and capacity limitations. Afghanistan is
heavily reliant on donor funding, which totals at least $8.6 billion per year (covering
both security and civilian assistance) and finances almost 80 percent of its $11 billion
in annual public expenditures.229 However, the Afghan government often lacked the
technical capacity to maintain the assets the United States provided.
40 | SUSTAINABILITY
Conditioning U.S. Assistance

The U.S. government has sometimes placed conditions on its reconstruction funds to ensure
that the Afghan government used the funds responsibly.222 Conditions can be financial or non-
financial, and can involve a reduction of goods provided in-kind, such as fuel.223
Although U.S. agencies have claimed some successes through conditionality, such as
improving Afghan reporting and procedures, overall these efforts have failed because they
lacked credibility.224 Nothing has been as important to U.S. officials as the survival and
stability of the Afghan government, so reforms such as reducing corruption were often
secondary. When U.S. officials imposed conditions on aid to incentivize reform, Afghan
officials essentially called their bluff, knowing the U.S. government ultimately would not
withhold critical assistance that Kabul desperately needed to ensure its survival. Conditions
were announced, but not enforced.225
For example, there do not appear to be any direct financial consequences to the Afghan
government for violating the terms set by the latest mutual accountability framework, the
2020 Afghan partnership framework, which included commitments to democracy and full
gender equality.226 If Afghanistan’s strategic importance to the United States decreases
after U.S. troops are withdrawn, however, donor-imposed conditionality may become more
credible.227 In fact, if the U.S. grows more willing to enforce them, the conditions tied to its
reconstruction funding could become one of the primary means through which it exerts
influence in the country.228
Afghanistan is far from being the only poor country for whom donors pay a large portion
of government expenses.230 However, U.S. officials sometimes made the problem worse
by designing reconstruction programs without regard to the Afghan government’s ability
to sustain them. In 2008, for instance, USAID awarded a contract for the design and
construction of two hospitals in Paktia and Paktika Provinces—a 100-bed provincial
hospital in Gardez and a 20-bed district hospital in Khair Khot—for a combined total
cost of $18.5 million. The annual operating and maintenance costs of the new hospitals
were many times those of the hospitals they were intended to replace.231 SIGAR found
that USAID began construction on the hospitals a year before they even shared the plans
with the Afghan Ministry of Public Health.232
SIGAR also found that the Afghan government was unable to fund maintenance for the
roads that the U.S. constructed—and even if it had the funding, it lacked the technical
capacity to do so.233 For one group of U.S. power sector projects, SIGAR found that the
agencies involved failed to even estimate how much operations and maintenance would
cost. Unsurprisingly, the Afghan government has proven unable to sustain them.234
Further, the Afghan government was uninterested in continuing programs or sustaining

infrastructure that it had not prioritized in the first place. The disconnect between
AUGUST 2021 | 41
Haji Sayed Fazullah Wahidi, right, the governor of Kunar Province; U.S. Ambassador Hans Klemm, center, the
coordinating director of Rule of Law and Law Enforcement; and dignitaries from Kabul cut the ribbon at a newly
constructed courthouse in Asadabad, Kunar Province, on May 9, 2011. (State photo by S.K. Vemmer)
U.S. and Afghan priorities was a challenge for USAID’s $300 million Stability in Key
Areas program, aimed at building the capacity of subnational governance structures
within contested districts.235 The program’s governance coordinator, Gulla Jan
Ahmadzai, observed:
The program was initially planned together with the [Ministry of Rural
Rehabilitation and Development] but it wasn’t well aligned with the
Afghan government[’s] National Priority Plans to support the main agenda
of government stabilization. The program was not a government-driven
approach, and didn’t consult the local government in the design phase of the
program. . . . After the program officially closed, the activities were not that
much sustainable. . . . If the program was aligned and linked with [our plans]
then it would have larger effect, since government has plans to take care of
their priorities.236
The United States also provided direct support to private businesses in part to help the
Afghan government expand tax revenue and bolster its fiscal capacity. However, this
effort also faced sustainability issues. While some of these companies used the financial
support and technical assistance to expand their access to markets, other companies
became dependent on “free money” to sustain their profitability.237 A SIGAR report found
that the U.S.-funded Kabul Carpet Export Center, established in 2018 to facilitate textile
exports, failed to meet its sales, revenue, and job creation targets by wide margins and
was “unlikely to generate the sales and revenue needed to sustain operations after USAID
funding ceases in June 2021.”238
42 | SUSTAINABILITY
U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Latha Caillouette, a PRT Zabul structures engineer, shows contractors erosion control
repairs that are needed at a bridge in Shah Joy District, Zabul Province, on March 4, 2011. (U.S. Air Force
photo by 1st Lt. Brian Wagner)
POOR MONITORING AND EVALUATION MEANT THE UNITED

STATES WAS SLOW TO RECOGNIZE THE MAGNITUDE OF ITS
SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEM
The U.S. government struggled with a lack of good information with which to assess
the impact and sustainability of its programs. Instead, it filled the void with competing
theories and assumptions about what its interventions were achieving. There were a
number of reasons for this. Insecurity prevented staff from accessing and evaluating
project sites; goals changed over time, making it difficult to assess whether progress had
been achieved; performance management plans were either missing or ignored, or they
failed to take sustainability into account.239
“I’d talk to infantry commanders and ask what they need, and they’d
say, ‘Turn this money off. We’re having to look for people and projects
to spend money on.’”
—Former senior USAID official
In an environment where reliable data were hard to get, U.S. agencies tended to focus on
overly simplified metrics—such as whether individuals were paid and structures built—
rather than the more challenging issue of their impact within the community or the
Afghan government’s ability to sustain them.240 In too many cases, the amount of money
spent became the main metric for success.241
AUGUST 2021 | 43
The U.S. Army’s Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP), in particular,

struggled to move beyond confirming project completion to ascertain whether it was
achieving the intended effect. As the budget for the program swelled—rising from $35
million in 2004 to $500 million in 2009—the number of new projects also spiked, with the
majority of CERP projects implemented between 2010 and 2012, amid the surge.242 During
this period, the pressure to spend became excessive. A former senior USAID official told
SIGAR, “I’d talk to infantry commanders and ask what they need, and they’d say, ‘Turn this
money off. We’re having to look for people and projects to spend money on.’”243
As the number of new projects swelled, the capacity for monitoring the impact and
sustainability of those projects diminished. A civil affairs officer working on CERP
projects in eastern Afghanistan explained: “Ongoing projects took up too much of our
bandwidth to pay attention to old projects. We struggled to look at inherited ongoing
projects, so we certainly didn’t have time to think about inherited closed projects.”244
SHORT-TERM GOALS VERSUS LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY

U.S. reconstruction officials faced a dilemma: satisfy overwhelming pressure from
Congress and agency leadership by focusing on short-term progress, or take the necessary
time to work through the Afghan government to ensure it had the capacity to manage any
improvements to Afghan institutions and infrastructure. Too often, the answer was the
former: Reconstruction programs chose to get things done quickly, often by bypassing the
Off-budget assistance Afghan government via off-budget assistance.245 As a result, even when programs were
is money managed able to achieve short-term success, they were often unsustainable because the Afghans
directly by international who might take the baton were poorly equipped, trained, or motivated to do so.246
partners instead of
working through the On-budget programs with the potential to build capacity within the Afghan government
Afghan government. were repeatedly cancelled after the U.S. government became frustrated with the
slow pace of progress, the challenges of navigating Afghan politics, and corruption.
On-budget assistance For example, in 2005, the United States, the UK, and Canada reduced or completely
is money provided to withdrew funding from the Afghanistan Stabilization Program out of frustration
the Afghan government with slow progress, poor management, and political infighting within the Afghan
to implement government.247 The 2009 District Delivery Program, a $40 million effort to rapidly
reconstruction projects. deploy Afghan civil servants to districts recently cleared by U.S. and Afghan troops,
was cancelled after disbursing only $2.4 million because the Afghan practice of keeping
records on paper was slow and cumbersome, and USAID misconstrued the failure to
promptly account for expenditures as evidence of corruption.248 In 2017, in response
to allegations of corruption by the senior leadership of Afghanistan’s national power
utility, USAID moved about half the funding for its Power Transmission Expansion
and Connectivity from on-budget to off-budget.249 This heavy reliance on off-budget
programming allowed U.S. officials to plough ahead with short-term goals, unable
or unwilling to acknowledge how unsustainable any gains would be.250
The reliance on off-budget assistance created a cycle in which the Afghan government
could not improve enough to make on-budget funding more attractive—which
44 | SUSTAINABILITY
Afghan laborers build a new CERP-funded aqueduct system in Khost Province on September 23, 2006.
(Photo by S. Sgt. Robert R. Ramon, 345th Mobile Public Affairs Detachment)
only reinforced the reliance on off-budget assistance.251 The Afghan government’s

institutional response was predictable. As one USAID official noted, “The Afghan
government had no motive to create their own budget process because the [off-budget]
spigot was turned on full force.”252
“The Afghan government had no motive to create their own budget

process, because the [off-budget] spigot was turned on full force.”
—USAID official
SIGAR has repeatedly documented the Afghan government’s failure to decentralize

budgetary authority by creating mechanisms for substantive input from its provincial
and district governments.253 SIGAR’s lessons learned report on stabilization noted that
U.S. efforts to build Afghan capacity at the district level were unsustainable because
those same capabilities did not even exist at the provincial level.254 Even after the United
States recognized this, many USAID programs kept focusing on the district level, in
violation of the U.S. government’s own strategy.255 Not only was a district-level focus
unsustainable, but the specific districts the United States prioritized were especially
unsuitable for that kind of attention. U.S. officials often focused on the most insecure
parts of the country, where they knew interventions were least likely to succeed and
where there was often little Afghan government presence.256
This kind of poor planning sometimes created an extraordinary level of waste. In 2008,
DOD spent $549 million to provide the Afghan Air Force with G222 military transport
planes, a variation of an aircraft that the U.S. Air Force itself had retired almost 30
years earlier because replacement parts were hard to find.257 By 2014, DOD again came
AUGUST 2021 | 45
Afghan girls attend a science class supported by the Education Quality Improvement Program in Herat.
(World Bank photo)
to the same conclusion—and the G222 planes it had delivered to Afghanistan six years
earlier were unceremoniously sold for only $40,257, as scrap metal. “We flew members
of parliament to Pakistan, and we did airdrop resupply. . . . There was nothing we did not
accomplish that first year,” said a U.S. Air Force officer familiar with the G222 program.
“I think we proved the operational validity of the airplane in Afghanistan. What we
couldn’t do was sustain it, and that’s where we failed.”258

• What tools or assessments do agencies need in order to determine whether a project
is sustainable?
• How can agencies change performance evaluations for civilian and military personnel
working in contingency environments to reward those who reject unsustainable
projects and programs, and instead approve or prioritize sustainable ones?
• How can the Congress motivate U.S. agencies to reject unsustainable programs
and projects? How might the Congress reward agencies for spending less than
anticipated, especially if the shortfall was caused by a recognition that spending any
more would have been unsustainable or counterproductive?
46 | SUSTAINABILITY

DOD should conduct a human capital, threat, and material needs assessment of the host
nation and design a force accordingly, with the appropriate systems and equipment.259
USAID should continue to closely team with a host nation’s local institutions, such
as universities, think tanks, and business associations, to provide technical assistance
and training tailored to the local environment and its modes of doing business.260
To the extent possible, State and USAID should focus market interventions at the
industry or sector level, rather than selecting and supporting individual firms.261
USAID should require an assessment of the potential impact a development project

could have on illicit crop cultivation prior to obligating funds for development programs
in major drug-transit or drug-producing countries.262
State, DOD, and Justice should consider supporting small, specialized counternarcotics
units as a means to build host-nation counterdrug capacity. However, this assistance
should be proportional to the willingness and capacity of host-nation leaders to support
such units, and should be coordinated with broader U.S. efforts to strengthen political,
security, and judicial institutions.263
USAID should direct all bureaus providing election assistance around the world to focus
more attention on building electoral institutions over the long term, rather than simply
helping those institutions prepare for imminent elections.264
USAID should prioritize expanding midwifery education programs, including community

midwifery schools, in rural areas where there is a shortage of female healthcare providers
and access to maternal care is restricted.265
AUGUST 2021 | 47
LESSON 4
Counterproductive civilian and military
personnel policies and practices
thwarted the effort.
CHAPTER 5
PERSONNEL
R econstruction campaigns are enormous undertakings that require ample

resources. Although funding can be ramped up easily, it is far harder to identify,
train, deploy, and backfill qualified staff to spend that money. This is not simply a question
Kandahar Provincial
Reconstruction Team hosts
USAID Administrator Rajiv
Shah, on April 9, 2010.
(USAID photo)
of linking personnel numbers to overall spending; the critical task of interagency and
intra-agency coordination in reconstruction campaigns depends on qualified personnel
methodically planning together. This is especially true if the country being rebuilt is mired
in protracted violent conflict, where the programs in need of oversight and coordination
are rapidly evolving and require equally fast adaptation by the U.S. government.
In Afghanistan, the U.S. government did not pay enough attention to the critical role of
personnel. As a result, U.S. officials were unable to overcome critical deficiencies created
by a recurring inability to get the right people into the right jobs, rapid turnover of the staff
they did find, and poor coordination between military and civilian organizations.
PROBLEMS WITH PERSONNEL STRUCTURES WERE WELL KNOWN

Challenges to personnel management in reconstruction missions have been on
the radar of the U.S. government since at least the 1990s. Following problematic
missions in Panama (1989), Somalia (1993), and Haiti (1994), U.S. officials observed
that the interagency reconstruction process was “incomplete and haphazard; there
were insufficient civil affairs, engineers, military police for the rebuilding effort; and
AUGUST 2021 | 49
interagency cooperation was poor because many of the agencies were excluded from the
DOD planning effort.”266 In an effort to correct these missteps, the Clinton administration
issued Presidential Decision Directive 56 in 1997 to institutionalize lessons learned
from previous complex contingency operations, as well as to provide the framework
needed to do so.267 The directive aimed to synchronize civilian and military agencies’
roles in future reconstruction missions to decrease operational redundancy and prevent
individual agencies from shouldering unnecessary responsibilities.268
Yet the directive did not produce the type of interagency cooperation it intended.
Although it was reportedly driving some improvements in interagency organization as
of 2000, the NSC officials responsible for overseeing the process were sidelined. At the
same time, State’s ability to plan had not improved, and there was no evidence that the
new process was used during the early stages of the Afghanistan campaign.269
The Bush administration’s attempt to fix the problem, particularly in Afghanistan and Iraq,
was the 2005 National Security Presidential Directive 44, which also created personnel
systems for staffing reconstruction efforts.270 One of this directive’s chief contributions
was creating the role of Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization at State, who
would direct the interagency coordination process. However, according to one Brookings
analysis, the Bush administration directive “failed to provide the Coordinator with clear
authority over other government entities and did not provide the resources necessary
to implement the concept.”271 In reality, DOD’s exponentially larger budget and human
resource reserves allowed it to outpace the proposed reforms at State, and dictate
the speed and priorities of the reconstruction process (see Chapter 2).272 U.S. officials
recognized the critical problems hurting U.S. interagency coordination and personnel,
but the recognition did not translate into effective measures to address them.
WEAK PERSONNEL STRUCTURES AND FUNDING PREVENTED

QUALITY STAFFING
With any large-scale reconstruction effort, large numbers of people are needed to
implement, monitor, and guide the various projects that make up the overall mission.
The United States approached reconstruction in Afghanistan by first creating and
funding reconstruction projects—and only then attempting to locate the individuals
needed to carry them out. This method works only if the government can continuously
draw upon existing talent pools. Once those pools were depleted for Afghanistan,
projects were haphazardly staffed with underqualified workers, allowed to go
unmonitored, and, in some cases, were outright abandoned.
In Afghanistan, the United States government repeatedly undertook new projects without
first guaranteeing enough personnel resources were available to see them through.273 At
times, shortages in qualified personnel became so pronounced in both civilian and military
agencies that hiring standards were lowered in order to keep programs functioning; at one
point, a USAID employee noted that the organization was so desperate for additional staff
that they were hiring anyone with “a pulse and a master’s degree.”274
50 | PERSONNEL
A U.S. Army officer and Afghan National Police practice tactical movement as part of the Focused District
Development training program at the Kandahar Regional Training Center. (NTM-A photo by David Votroubek)
Thanks to its large supply of reserve staff, the U.S. military is often able to supply
enough personnel to keep projects running, although finding properly qualified
individuals remains an issue. However, in some instances even the military is unable
to meet its staffing obligations. In 2005, for example, the United States committed to
both training and equipping the Afghan National Police and the Afghan National Army.
To meet these obligations, the U.S. military attempted to put together Police Mentoring
Teams, with the idea that each team would be competent and diverse enough to develop
capable Afghan security forces. By 2009, the U.S. military projected a need for 635 Police
Mentoring Teams, but there were only enough personnel to sustain 90 teams, and many
of those remained understaffed.275
The severe lack of personnel also creates budgetary problems: Without enough
oversight staff, it was impossible to properly validate data from the field. For instance,
a SIGAR audit from January 2015 reported that Combined Security Transition
Command – Afghanistan (CSTC-A), which oversaw the training and equipping of Afghan
forces, was unable to provide sufficient staff to verify Afghan National Army and
Afghan National Police attendance data. This gap allowed corrupt officials to artificially
increase their payroll numbers, leading to “ghost soldiers”—nonexistent personnel
created to draw a salary.276 Because CSTC-A was unable to verify employment rates,
the SIGAR audit warned that more than $300 million a year was spent paying salaries
to nonexistent personnel in the Afghan security forces.277
State and USAID faced even greater personnel challenges and were forced to pull staff
from other assignments.278 Because civilian agencies lack the strategic reserves of
qualified employees that the military enjoys, they had to hire many staff quickly to meet
demand. According to State, the number of civilian personnel at the U.S. embassy in Kabul
more than tripled between 2009 and 2011. By the end of 2011, more than 20 percent of
AUGUST 2021 | 51
all USAID personnel stationed overseas were working in Afghanistan—and the agency
was still falling short of meeting the U.S. government’s average ratio of dollars spent per
contracting oversight officer.279 According to a study by Princeton University, the chronic
staffing shortage was driven by a hiring freeze at both USAID and State in the mid-1990s,
which created a ripple effect that deprived both agencies of the deeply experienced
personnel needed to effectively manage contingency operations in later decades.280
When neither civilian or military personnel were available to report on the progress of
various reconstruction efforts, the amount of money being spent on various projects
became synonymous with the amount of progress being made.281 This hurt program
quality and thinly stretched oversight personnel. For example, in 2010, State instructed
USAID to double the budget of an agricultural program in southern Afghanistan,
requiring the agency to spend $300 million in two provinces in a single year. USAID
argued that “such large sums would prove ineffective and wasteful” due to the agency’s
inability to monitor where and how the money would be spent. Their objections were
ignored, due to intense pressure to make progress on short timelines (see Chapter 3).282
By the end of 2011, more than 20 percent of all USAID personnel

stationed overseas were working in Afghanistan.
The inability of U.S. government agencies to properly oversee their own projects
produced poor results in critical project areas, as various staffers were assigned jobs
for which they had little to no training or qualifications.283 Some police advisors were
helicopter pilots and received little formal training in policing.284 The training many
military advisors did receive was not even Afghanistan-specific.285 With such a training
deficiency, some police advisors turned in desperation to television shows like “Cops”
and “NCIS” to become more familiar with policing.286
When the U.S military recognized in 2009 that it did not have enough civil affairs teams
to build infrastructure in contested Afghan communities, it tried to mass-produce
these teams by taking chemical warfare response units and giving them four-week-
long PowerPoint trainings, with poor results.287 For example, according to one senior
U.S. military official overseeing these projects nationwide, many project proposals
written by these new civil affairs teams contained justifications that were copied
and pasted from one another. Another senior military officer told SIGAR that some
justifications even included references to “sheikhs,” indicating they were being copied
from proposals written in Iraq.288
U.S. Special Operations Forces took similar shortcuts. U.S. Navy SEALs and U.S. Marine
Forces Special Operations Command personnel who specialize in capture/kill raids
were assigned to help build the Afghan Local Police, a task that would normally be
the exclusive remit of the U.S. Army’s Special Forces. SIGAR found that U.S. Special
Operations Forces often struggled with the critical community engagement aspects
of building indigenous police embedded in communities.289
52 | PERSONNEL
Afghan contractors unload bags of fertilizer for distribution to residents in Nawa, Helmand, on October 13,
2009. (DOD photo by L. Cpl. Jeremy Harris, U.S. Marine Corps)
RAPID TURNOVER REDUCED PERSONNEL QUALITY

Compounding these general staffing issues, short tours of duty for both military and civilian
personnel undermined institutional memory and programmatic continuity in Afghanistan.
These tours, typically lasting less than a year for both civilian and military positions, limited
the ability of staff to build a nuanced understanding of their role, their environment, and
the Afghans they worked with. By the time they found their bearings and built important
relationships, they began preparing to depart.290 With personnel taking critical information
with them as they rotated out, the reconstruction effort essentially experienced an annual
lobotomy, as newly arriving staff made the same mistakes as their predecessors.291
With such a training deficiency, some police advisors turned in

desperation to television shows like “Cops” and “NCIS” to become
more familiar with policing.
This had a predictable negative effect on the quality of U.S. programs. For example,
civilian staffing for rebuilding Afghanistan’s private sector was stymied by the need
“to do more frequent recruiting from an increasingly limited pool of qualified applicants,
raising the probability of delayed activities when positions were not filled.” A lack of
candidates was often addressed by reassigning unqualified staff members to positions
as they were vacated, further contributing to the lack of institutional memory in both
civilian and military organizations.292
Similarly, perpetual cycles of new employees disrupted the monitoring and evaluation of
programs, and created redundancies in the military’s supply chain. In one instance in 2013,
incoming personnel at CSTC-A requested $195.2 million for specialized military cargo trucks
on behalf of the Afghan National Army, unaware that the White House and the National
AUGUST 2021 | 53
Security Council had already approved an identical request placed by their predecessors.
Under pressure to allocate funds quickly and without knowing they were duplicating an
already-filled order, CSTC-A personnel went ahead and procured the trucks anyway, even
though the Afghan government did not need them. A similar event occurred in 2016 when
a new rotation of CSTC-A personnel submitted a request for ammunition without realizing
their predecessors had already determined such an order was unnecessary.293
With personnel taking critical information with them as they

rotated out, the reconstruction effort essentially experienced an
annual lobotomy as newly arriving staff made the same mistakes
as their predecessors.
To address this constant turnover, the United States employed contractors to work both
alongside and independently from U.S., Afghan, and coalition forces. Driven in part by
a political climate which favored increased project spending over recruiting and training
more U.S. personnel, the demand for more staff became so great between 2008 and
2011 that contractors eventually made up more than 40 percent of DOD’s non-combat
workforce in Afghanistan.294
THE USE OF CONTRACTORS AND PARTNERS PROLIFERATED

TO FILL GAPS
Contractors provided a diverse collection of support activities, from weapons systems
maintenance to linguistics, allowing the U.S. government to meet the demands of
a rapidly growing reconstruction mission.295 Contractors could also travel to field
locations which were deemed too dangerous for U.S. government employees.296
The number of government staff was inadequate to supervise the large number of
contractors overseen by DOD, State, and USAID, particularly considering the size
of the programs compared to those in other countries. According to a 2011 Government
Accountability Office report, the shortage was so severe that merely finding people to
vet new contractors was itself a difficult task, let alone finding people to monitor the
contractors once they had been selected.297
Because contract work was often performed with little to no oversight, waste and fraud
often went virtually unchecked. In 2012, GAO reported that a number of new, contractor-
built facilities had to be repaired or completely rebuilt because oversight personnel were
unable to adequately measure contractors’ performance, resulting in “wasted resources,
low morale, and risks to safety of base and installation personnel where the deficient
guard towers, fire stations, and gates were constructed.”298 The report detailed a number
of instances in which contracting officers failed to properly evaluate new structures due
to a lack of technical expertise and time. In one such instance, a $2.4 million compound
could not be used because it was built outside the security perimeter of the base it
was commissioned for. Contracting officials attributed the error to a lack of time and
personnel needed for oversight.299
54 | PERSONNEL
U.S. Marine Corps Lt. Col. William McCollough, second from right, commander of the 1st Battalion, 5th Marine
Regiment, talks with members of the USAID team at Patrol Base Jaker in Nawa District, Helmand Province,
on August 16, 2009. (DOD photo by S. Sgt. William Greeson, U.S. Marine Corps)
MILITARY AND CIVILIAN PERSONNEL FACED RECURRING

COORDINATION CHALLENGES
Coordination between civilian agencies and the military was critical to the
U.S. government’s efforts at rebuilding Afghan institutions. Reducing poppy cultivation,
reintegrating ex-combatants into society, building the private sector, and convincing
Afghans to trust their government all depended on the coalition’s ability to divide
labor at the strategic and tactical levels. However, clashes were abundant, often due
to personnel issues. As detailed in Chapter 2, DOD’s resources and staffing far exceed
those of State and USAID, both in Afghanistan and globally, which in practice puts DOD
in charge by virtue of its capabilities. At the height of the Obama administration’s troop
surge, for example, a total of 99,800 U.S. military forces were stationed in Afghanistan,
compared to just under 600 USAID personnel.300 Although a variety of civilian agencies
contributed personnel to the mission in Afghanistan, combined staff numbers never
came close to approaching the military labor force, despite the overtly political nature
of the reconstruction mission.
This mismatch in resources often elevated military objectives over civilian ones. Senior
officials at USAID described to SIGAR how they were often “bulldozed” by the military into
implementing projects in places far too dangerous for them to have a stabilizing effect (see
Chapter 6).301 Civilian officials had little recourse. They were dependent on the military for
food, housing, and transportation, and there might only be one civilian official embedded
with an entire battalion or brigade.302 Arbitrary timelines, either implicit or explicit, often
compounded the problem, as the military was less likely to consider civilian objectives
if troops were under intense pressure to make fast progress, as detailed in Chapter 3.
Rather than working with their civilian counterparts to identify which areas were suitable
for interventions, military officials prioritized their own goals: After all, they controlled
AUGUST 2021 | 55
transportation between sites. This dictated the kind of intervention, limited its prospects
for success, and prevented interventions in areas more likely to respond favorably.303
As DOD insisted on taking the lead in the provinces, civilian agencies either resisted
or were unable to keep up even when they tried to, which convinced DOD that civilian
agencies were not “nimble or capable enough to effectively support private sector
development” in insecure environments.304 What emerged was a self-perpetuating cycle.
Civilian agencies needed to hire additional partners to keep pace with the projects
deemed acceptable by the military; when the agencies could not effectively monitor the
work being done, the ensuing waste and fraud drove the military to request even more
programs. These programs would then also go understaffed or without supervision.
In this way, the United States continuously spent money and engaged in more projects
without seeing proportionate returns on its efforts.
PERSONNEL QUALITY IS CRITICAL IN RECONSTRUCTION MISSIONS

AND IS BEST ENSURED BY BUILDING INSTITUTIONS BETWEEN
THESE MISSIONS
For two decades in Afghanistan, the U.S. government continuously struggled to identify
the right personnel, train them properly, keep them in the country long enough to
become effective, and enable them to spend enough time with their replacement to hand
over their work before departing. State and USAID in particular struggled to staff their
programs with qualified personnel. Civilian agencies simply could not compete with
DOD’s resources and planning in the provinces. DOD ended up making critical decisions
that should have been made by U.S. civilian officials with expertise in navigating
complex political dynamics.
Given the dearth of robust personnel structures that were necessary to successfully
scale up a reconstruction effort, it is difficult to imagine how U.S. officials could have
performed any better. The problem was not that they were poor at improvising, but that
the U.S. government believed it could achieve its goals through improvisation at all. As is
apparent across the Afghan government, it takes decades to build effective institutions,
and those of the U.S. government are no different. Laying the groundwork for personnel
to be trained and bureaucratically positioned for a scaled reconstruction campaign is a
particularly difficult institutional challenge, and one that may be best implemented long
before a reconstruction campaign begins.

• How can DOD improve the way it recruits, trains, deploys, and tracks its staff that
train and equip host nation security forces? How can DOD better institutionalize
such expertise?
• What changes to the budgets of State and USAID would be necessary to create
personnel structures that would enable them to staff reconstruction missions and
conflict-related crises? As the U.S. commitment to a reconstruction mission grows,
56 | PERSONNEL
what attributes would these personnel structures need to already have to ensure
they can grow in a way that does not substantially hurt the quality of staffing?
• How can State and USAID improve their ability to recruit, train, and retain qualified
personnel when they need to increase the number of staff in a conflict-affected
country? What reforms do they need to implement now in anticipation of those
recruitment, training, and retention challenges?

DOD and USAID should prioritize developing and retaining human terrain analytical
expertise that would allow a more nuanced understanding of local communities.305
DOD should ensure it has a sufficient number and mix of civil affairs personnel
with the right training and aptitude for the next stabilization mission.306
State and USAID should designate a new civilian response corps of active and standby
civilian specialists who can staff stabilization missions.307
DOD, State, USAID, Treasury, Justice, and the intelligence community should increase
anticorruption expertise to enable more effective strategies, practices, and programs
in contingency operations.308
USAID should develop and retain staff with expertise in gender mainstreaming, to better
integrate gender into the agency’s programming.309
State and USAID should review human resource policies to make them more suitable
for conflict environments, ensure continuity, and maintain institutional knowledge.310
DOD, State, and other key security assistance stakeholders should enhance civilian and
military career fields in security sector assistance, and create personnel systems capable
of tracking employee security sector assistance experience and skills to expedite the
deployment of these experts.311
The U.S. military should create a clear career path for combat advisors and continue
to provide incentives to improve recruitment. Part of this career path should include
post-deployment assignments at security sector assistance commands and U.S. military
training centers.312
DOD should diversify the leadership assigned to develop foreign military forces to
include civilian defense officials with expertise in the governing and accountability
systems required in a military institution.313
State, USAID, and DOD should each designate an existing office to lead and advise on
reintegration matters. These offices should develop in-house expertise on international
best practices on the socioeconomic, political, and military aspects of disarmament,
demobilization, and reintegration processes.314
AUGUST 2021 | 57
LESSON 5
Persistent insecurity severely
undermined reconstruction efforts.
CHAPTER 6
INSECURITY
F or two decades, insecurity has been an urgent problem in Afghanistan for the United
States, the international community, and the Afghan government.315 Insecurity has
undermined political processes, the extension of government services, and innumerable
Private security contractors
protect the construction
of the Khost-Gardez road,
on March 30, 2010.
(USAID photo)
economic and development programs—all of which were, in theory, meant to reduce
insecurity. It has helped hollow out even the most direct and practical efforts to counter
its effects, such as the development of competent Afghan security forces and programs
meant to draw reconcilable insurgents back into the fold of Afghan society.
UNDERMINING THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

The U.S government has spent many years trying to help Afghanistan hold credible
elections in the belief that doing so would produce legitimate government officials.316
However, SIGAR found that poor security has critically undermined the electoral
process and the legitimacy of its elected officials.
The electoral process comprises a sequence of critical events, each of which are
essential to the integrity of the election. While some of the more centralized events
may be easier to protect, geographically dispersed events are more vulnerable to
disruption: SIGAR has found that insecurity has hamstrung both voter registration and
the establishment and operation of polling centers throughout Afghanistan.317 During the
AUGUST 2021 | 59
2018 parliamentary election, for example, there was a clear correlation between the level
of government control and the number of open polling stations by district.318 The effects
that insecurity had on the Afghan democratic process were likely worse during the 2019
presidential election, when more than 37 percent of polling stations were deemed too
dangerous to open (see Figure 7). It was the most shuttered election in Afghan history.319
Meanwhile, polling centers that are operational on election day are sometimes
inaccessible to election observers, who serve as the watchdogs of the democratic
process. Even in locations that are accessible to observers, the threat of violence
sometimes stymies their efforts to observe and document fraud.320 In addition to
observers, the insecure environment has also affected voting behavior, as reflected
in the clear correlation between lower turnout and fear for personal safety in the
2018 election.321 Downward trends in both the number of operational polling centers
and voter turnout are troubling signs for the country as it struggles to maintain its
democratic moorings.322
FIGURE 7
PLANNED POLLING CENTERS FOR 2019 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BY STATUS
Note: SIGAR obtained separate lists of polling centers from sources within or associated with the Independent Election Commission. Some just had numbers, others had names and districts of
polling centers (some of which indicated the open/closed status of each), while others included the actual military grid reference system coordinates for the polling centers. SIGAR cross-referenced
them all to identify locations of polling centers and their status for 2018 and 2019. In 2019, the Independent Election Commission planned to open 5,373 polling centers and to close 2,044 cen-
ters. However, the UN says that 689 additional security-based closures took place shortly before Election Day 2019, the locations of which are unknown to SIGAR and are not depicted in this map.
Source: Independent Election Commission, various polling center location spreadsheets, 2018 and 2019.
60 | INSECURITY
Matthew Flynn, USAID field program officer and head of the Kandahar City stabilization cell, and other
members of PRT Kandahar visit the Shur Andam Industrial Park in Kandahar City on June 11, 2011.
(U.S. Air Force photo by Ch. M. Sgt. Richard Simonsen)
OBSTRUCTING THE EXTENSION OF GOVERNMENT

Beyond the democratic process, insecurity also undermined efforts to legitimize the
government through service delivery programs. According to the U.S. Government
Counterinsurgency Guide, “The perceived capacity of local government to provide for
the population is critical to national government legitimacy.”323 These programs were
highly vulnerable in insecure environments.
These challenges were exemplified by Key Terrain Districts, strategically important

areas of the south and east, most of which had limited or no government presence.
During the surge of 2009–2012, the U.S. channeled personnel and resources into these
districts with the hope that securing them would have a “cascading effect” throughout
the country.324 As it turned out, some districts were so volatile that the coalition was
perpetually trying to secure them, and could never properly deliver the services that
stabilization and counterinsurgency demanded. In one case, a senior USAID official
described to SIGAR how poor security prevented him from simply visiting a road
construction project:325
The military asked us to build a 38-kilometer road in Arghandab, Kandahar, and

five kilometers in, our implementing partner told us it’s not safe enough to go
further. The military asked why we stopped, so we all flew out there to take a
look, and it was so insecure that our landing zone was under fire and we had
to turn back. Think about that. We were supposed to build roads in an area so
dangerous that armed U.S. military helicopters could not even land nearby.326
Naturally, the growth and maturation of the Afghan government—the theoretical
linchpin of the strategy and the basis for an eventual U.S. withdrawal—required local
Afghan officials. For many years, the U.S. government ran programs to recruit, train,
AUGUST 2021 | 61
and pay the salaries of these local officials so they could provide services and thereby
legitimize the role of the Afghan government.327 However, these local officials were
easy targets for the insurgency, which at the height of the U.S. troop surge reportedly
managed to assassinate an average of one Afghan official every day. The insurgents’
assassination campaign also gave informal powerbrokers cover to assassinate local
rivals serving as government officials. The high levels of violence against local officials
made it difficult to recruit qualified candidates, and had a chilling effect on the
willingness of those who were hired to leave the security of provincial capitals.328
While the United States favored an aggressive strategy that prioritized population
centers or key infrastructure that was controlled or contested by insurgents, their
Afghan counterparts argued for areas that could be held for the long term.329 Perhaps
as a consequence, the Afghan government took a more cautious approach with their
own stabilization programming. The Citizens’ Charter Afghanistan Project, for example,
which issued small development grants to communities via informal representatives,
limited the geographic scope of the program in recognition of Afghan security forces’
limited ability to protect beneficiaries. Citizens’ Charter would initially decline to
operate in the third of Afghanistan’s districts that were deemed too insecure, much like
its long-running predecessor, the National Solidarity Program, which eschewed highly
insecure areas of southern Afghanistan.330 The National Solidarity Program reportedly
influenced U.S. project design, but its aversion to insecure districts was reportedly lost
on U.S. policymakers, who attempted to implement development projects in some of the
most volatile corners of the country.331 Barna Karimi, the deputy minister of Afghanistan’s
Independent Directorate of Local Governance, described to SIGAR the challenges that
Afghan counterparts faced in even accessing projects in insurgent hotbeds:
When I had disagreements with the Americans about Helmand, it was because
before going to stabilize a district close to Lashkar Gah, for example, Nawa, they
used to go to a further district like Garmser and start operations there. After the
military operation in Garmser was finished, they started shouting, “We cleared
Garmser, so come here and establish the government administration.” I used to
tell them that I am not coming, because I cannot travel there by the road. “You
are going there by helicopters,” I would say. “I cannot take all my staff there
by plane. How is my clerk able to go through Nawa to get there? He will be
kidnapped on his way in Nawa. How are you going to prevent this?”332
In an interview with SIGAR, one USAID official seemed to suggest that the very idea that
improved security would flow from development in highly insecure areas was flawed.
Rural Afghans “didn’t feel like their government could protect them, and we couldn’t
change that no matter how much we built, how many people we employed, or how much
they liked us for it,” the official said.333 Similarly, SIGAR has reported that in some cases,
community leaders requested permission from the Taliban to allow U.S.‑sponsored
programs to proceed, essentially granting the insurgency veto power over stabilization
projects.334 In fact, insecurity sometimes caused projects to backfire. Echoing SIGAR’s
findings, one large USAID evaluation revealed that these projects sometimes decreased
support for the government and increased support for the Taliban.335 Projects often
62 | INSECURITY
attracted violent attacks by insurgents keen on discrediting them. When the government
was unable to prevent this from happening, disillusionment with government grew more
than if there had not been any intervention in the first place.
RESTRICTING COUNTERNARCOTICS EFFORTS

Over the last two decades, the problems of insecurity and the narcotics industry have
exacerbated one another in ways that stymied U.S. efforts to reduce both. Poppy is
an attractive insurance policy for farmers caught in the middle of a war. The crop is
lightweight, easy to transport, lucrative, and it can be stockpiled to await more favorable
market or security conditions.336 Yet the cultivation and trafficking of opium poppy is as
much a contributor to insecurity as it is a response to it. As journalist Steve Coll observed:
Perhaps it was not that opium caused war. Perhaps it was war that caused
opium. . . . Since the 1980s, there had been a self-reinforcing cycle in the opium
belt: War created desperation, which made opium attractive for poor farmers,
which created profits for warlords, who then used those resources to fight for
greater wealth and power, which created more desperation for poor farmers.337
The U.S. government has spent nearly $9 billion on counternarcotics efforts since 2002,
in part due to concerns that narcotics trafficking funded Taliban activities.338 Despite the
investment, the cultivation of opium poppy in Afghanistan has trended upward for two
decades, and insecurity has made it difficult to reverse the growth.339 Poppy cultivation
was often concentrated in areas under the control of insurgents, so physically accessing
areas to eradicate the crop or interdict it as it was being moved or processed into heroin
proved challenging.340 Many U.S. and Afghan security forces, Afghan civilians, U.S. Drug
Enforcement Administration agents, and contractors were killed or wounded in the
course of counternarcotics-related missions.341 Even successful interdiction efforts and
reductions in cultivation were often only possible under the protection of significant
coalition and Afghan security forces, who were never in a position to stay in targeted
areas indefinitely as a deterrent. Thus, many of these gains proved temporary and
unsustainable, particularly as the coalition gradually drew down across the country.342
Rural Afghans “didn’t feel like their government could protect them,
and we couldn’t change that no matter how much we built, how
many people we employed, or how much they liked us for it.”
—USAID official
Moreover, as one SIGAR lessons learned report noted, violence in contested areas
“disrupted economic activity by preventing access to markets and destroying
infrastructure that could otherwise help people pursue livelihoods in the licit
economy.”343 As it turned out, the larger U.S. effort to grow the economy amid such
violence was equally challenging.
AUGUST 2021 | 63
HINDERING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The U.S. government has tried to use foreign development assistance to advance
security objectives throughout its modern history, and U.S. efforts in Afghanistan have
been no exception.344 One potential avenue to victory that the United States explored in
Afghanistan was the cultivation of the country’s stunted private sector. The theory that
economic development would bolster security rested on three assumptions: economic
growth would legitimize the state; tax revenue would enable the state to deliver
services; and reducing the ranks of the unemployed would shrink the pool of potential
insurgents.345 U.S. economic initiatives included “providing technical and financial support
to individual small and medium enterprises; encouraging businesses [that] added value to
primary commodities and products; . . . promoting foreign and domestic direct investment;
encouraging regional trade; [and] providing vocational training and education.”346
As it turned out, the Afghan economy did experience growth over the course of American
involvement there—but that growth did not translate into substantial reductions in
unemployment or poverty, as the original theory of change predicted.347 The projects that
aimed to spur economic growth and foster a more secure environment were undermined
by the very symptoms of insecurity that they were meant to treat. The constant threat
of violence inevitably affected the motivations and confidence of Afghans starting and
running businesses, to say nothing of foreign companies considering investment.
From 2002 onward, the international community prioritized regional integration

between Afghanistan and its neighbors in Central and South Asia as a way of
increasing Afghanistan’s economic growth.348 One high-profile regional project
that was conceived even before the U.S.-led invasion, known as the Turkmenistan-
Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, was dogged by security concerns for
years.349 A similarly ambitious regional telecommunications system that would place
Afghanistan at the center of a fiber optic network—part of which would run in parallel
to TAPI—has also been beset with security concerns.350 The story of these projects
is not unique: The success of a number of other regional initiatives with neighboring
countries, on trade, transportation, and economic cooperation, has also been limited
by insecurity.351 In these cases, insecurity at the local level has helped disrupt planning
and implementation of grand regional plans for economic and political stability.
It is intuitive that geographically dispersed soft targets like pipelines and fiber optic
networks could be easily disrupted in an environment like Afghanistan, but even more
concentrated projects have been scuttled by insecurity. Large-scale mining operations,
for example, were given a prominent role in plans for Afghanistan’s economic future;
extractives have often been touted as the country’s greatest economic hope. Yet even
these critical, seemingly defensible projects have faltered. Two of the most promising
projects—the Aynak copper mine in Logar Province, and Hajigak iron mine in Bamyan
Province—were not even located in the most insecure corners of the country, yet they
were stifled by insecurity.352 Aynak, for example, was targeted by a car bomb in 2008;
a mine clearing operation was attacked there in 2012; and 19 Afghan National Police
were killed in a battle at the mine in 2020.353
64 | INSECURITY
Women working in a garment factory in Kabul in January 2014. (Asian Development Bank photo by Jawad Jalali)
The development of mines and their ancillary infrastructure, like roads and railways,
require significant foreign private investment, but insecurity and the uncertainty that
it spawns have made Afghanistan one of the worst places in the world to do business.354
Foreign direct investment in Afghanistan has been limited, despite the fact that
encouraging such investment was a key component of U.S. economic development
efforts.355 The United States spent approximately $488 million to support Afghanistan’s
mining sector, including $51 million on a minerals support program implemented by
DOD’s Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, which promoted investment
in various industries and sectors of the Afghan economy.356 Ultimately, SIGAR would
identify insecurity as one of the critical reasons that private sector investment initiatives
struggled to succeed in Afghanistan.357 As the security outlook for the country dimmed,
so did the level of investment.358
While the inhospitable business climate meant that foreign investors were reluctant
to lend, Afghan banks that were born of insecurity had fewer reservations, relying on
“extrajudicial” and “nonconventional enforcement methods” to collect loan payments.
Up to one-third of bank staff were composed of security personnel.359 In other words,
the same insecurity that foreign investors found prohibitive actually shaped the
practices and composition of domestic financial institutions, and may have essentially
rendered them participants in the country’s insecurity.
In contrast, U.S. efforts to cultivate the Afghan economy were apparently unable to
adapt many of their operations to the insecure and unconventional environment. As
the insurgency spread and security deteriorated across the country, constraints on
U.S. mobility and physical access to project locations became more serious.360 Those
restrictions affected everything from the implementation and monitoring of projects,
to accessing information necessary to vet grant recipients, and building relationships
with local partners.361 Like SIGAR, other watchdog agencies—including the Government
AUGUST 2021 | 65
Accountability Office—have pointed out how poor security and the resulting restrictions
on freedom of movement limited project monitoring and increased the risk of waste,
fraud, and mismanagement.362
Two of the most promising mining operations—the Aynak copper

mine in Logar Province, and Hajigak iron mine in Bamyan
Province—were not even located in the most insecure corners
of the country, yet they were stifled by insecurity.
As security deteriorated and the U.S. focus shifted to a more deliberate
counterinsurgency program, certain aspects of the economic development agenda
were repurposed to conform to the new operational focus. One example of this
was the Afghanistan Small and Medium Enterprise Development project, which
shifted from a focus on developing certain value chains and sectors of the country’s
economy to a circumscribed focus on development in military-designated Key Terrain
Districts.363 This process of cannibalizing an economic development program to
support the counterinsurgency effort represents a vexing tradeoff for policymakers and
implementers on the civilian side of the effort, and mirrored difficult choices that were
made on the military side in the name of security.
CONSTRAINTS ON BUILDING INDIGENOUS SECURITY FORCES

The initial U.S. military operations against the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the wake of the
9/11 attacks were in partnership with independent militia forces, many of whom had
previously committed abuses against their fellow Afghans.364 Some of these same militia
commanders and their ranks were later brought into the government and security forces,
where they engaged in predation and ultimately undermined the development of the
Afghan National Army and Police.365 In fact, Afghan militias allied with the United States
were sometimes direct sources of insecurity, even after the United States attempted to
formalize them by inducting their members into various policing programs.366
Such formalization efforts were just one of the ways coalition forces and the Afghan
government attempted to find a shortcut to a more secure Afghanistan. At several
points over the last two decades, rising insecurity also forced policymakers to accept
problematic compromises in the development of the country’s official uniformed
security forces. Initially, in 2002, plans called for a transition from a large aggregate
of militias who had helped topple the Taliban to a smaller, professionally trained force.
Then deteriorating security and threats emanating from Pakistan led to more ambitious
plans for a standing army.367 SIGAR found that after levels of insurgent violence
skyrocketed in 2006, decisions about the size and capabilities of the Afghan National
Defense and Security Forces were made almost exclusively in relation to countering
violence and insecurity. As a consequence, the U.S. military’s “gold standard” training
program fell by the wayside.368 As the target strength of the Afghan National Army
increased, for example, the duration of standard training decreased, from 14 weeks
66 | INSECURITY
U.S. Army military police officer teaches Afghan National Police members in Logar Province about improvised
explosive devices. (DOD photo by De’Yonte Mosley)
in 2005 to 10 weeks in 2007.369 That same year, senior Afghan and U.S. officials agreed to
an even more ambitious plan to expand the size and capabilities of the Afghan military,
transforming it from light infantry to a combined arms force, imposing additional
training requirements on a process that was already making significant compromises.370
In some cases, insecurity appears to have also affected retention among Afghan military
personnel. Instances of Afghan military trainees going absent without leave (AWOL) in
the United States increased during periods of heightened violence in Afghanistan, and
personal safety concerns were reportedly the leading motivation for fleeing within the
United States.371 In Afghanistan, retention was a major challenge for the ANDSF, with
one estimate suggesting that Afghan National Army attrition stood at 2 percent per
month, or roughly 24 percent per year in the mid-to-late 2000s. By 2020, Afghan security
forces were still replacing a quarter of the force annually, which the U.S. military has
come to view as normal. Solders going AWOL was one of the challenges driving those
elevated attrition rates.372
Meanwhile, the high levels of violence and insecurity that compelled policymakers
to shorten training timelines to meet demand for security forces undermined their
capabilities and made it that much more difficult to impose a monopoly on violence
in the country.373 A training deficiency hamstrung the force as it tried to combat the
insurgency, and insufficient training also increased the force’s propensity to actually
contribute to insecurity. For example, the Afghan National Police, widely known to be
undertrained and deemed “predatory” in a 2015 State report, were allegedly “largely
unaware of their responsibilities and defendants’ rights under the law,” and routinely
AUGUST 2021 | 67
engaged in torture and abuse.374 This in turn alienated local Afghans and undermined the
U.S. government’s overarching security goals for the country.375 In many ways, Afghan
forces wound up increasing the insecurity that had originally motivated policymakers
to rush their training. In 2017, SIGAR concluded that the United States “designed a force
that was not able to provide nationwide security, especially as that force faced a larger
threat than anticipated after the drawdown of coalition military forces.”376
Around the start of transition of security responsibilities from international forces

to Afghan forces in 2011, the United States once again began to see informal militia
forces as a potential expedient bridge solution to the country’s security problems, just
as they had during the early days of the conflict.377 The militias that the United States
developed—known as the Afghan Local Police (ALP)—exhibited some of the same
problems as their uniformed counterparts, such as rapid growth, weak recruits, poor
training, and alleged human rights abuses.378 In some cases, militias that operated
independently of the government were absorbed into the ALP; in others, Taliban fighters
who agreed to stop fighting the government were allowed to keep their weapons and
join the ALP.379 Such unconventional recruitment methods may explain why the ALP
has been identified as a source of insecurity.380
By 2020, Afghan security forces were still replacing a quarter of the

force annually, which the U.S. military has come to view as normal.
INSECURITY BEGETS INSECURITY: FAILURES OF REINTEGRATION

Perhaps the primary rationale for accepting reintegrated ex-combatants into the ALP
was the high threat of retaliation from either their former fellow insurgents or their
former victims.381 In fact, both DOD and State recognized that the vulnerability of former
combatants to retaliatory violence was a potential fundamental flaw in reintegration
programs.382 In a similar vein, SIGAR concluded in 2019 that few combatants would join
reintegration programs without some sort of reliable assurance of physical security.383
In fact, insecurity was so problematic for reintegration programs that even senior
program staff working under tight security faced credible threats of assassination. Most
notably, Burhanuddin Rabbani, a former president of Afghanistan, was assassinated by
a suicide bomber while spearheading a reconciliation and reintegration effort in 2011.
By 2016, dozens of staff and over 200 reintegrated fighters participating in the same
program had been killed.384 The challenge of insecurity led some former combatants
to return to the battlefield.385
For the ex-combatants who did join reintegration programs, insecurity complicated
the delivery of benefits and services promised to them, which likely deterred other
prospective participants and undermined the security dividend the program was
designed to create.386 Insecurity and the absence of a political settlement that reduced
violence both deterred combatants from reintegrating and reduced the benefit of
68 | INSECURITY
The district governor hands supplies to a recently reintegrated Taliban commander in Khas Uruzgan District,
Uruzgan Province, as part of the Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program. (NATO photo by Petty Officer
1st Class Matthew Leistikow)
reintegrating for those who did participate.387 Taking these constraints together,
SIGAR recommended in 2019 that “DOD, State, and USAID should not implement
a reintegration program amid the ongoing insurgency.”388

• How can U.S. agencies improve the process of prioritizing geographic areas to ensure
that they are safe enough to allow programming?
• What exit criteria do U.S. agencies need to develop to determine when an area has
become too dangerous for programs to continue? When those criteria are reached,
what funding mechanisms need to be in place so that the program can evolve with
conflict dynamics, rather than be derailed by them?
• How can host nation officials be given more voice in determining which areas are
too dangerous for programs to be administered?

DOD and USAID should update counterinsurgency and stabilization doctrine and best
practices to stagger stabilization’s various phases, with the provision of reliable and
continuous physical security serving as the critical foundation.389
U.S. agencies responsible for counternarcotics efforts in major drug-transit or drug-

producing countries should focus their eradication efforts in areas that are more secure,
have persistent state presence, and offer more diverse livelihood opportunities.390
AUGUST 2021 | 69
LESSON 6
The U.S. government did not understand
the Afghan context and therefore failed
to tailor its efforts accordingly.
CHAPTER 7
CONTEXT
I gnorance of prevailing social, cultural, and political contexts in Afghanistan has

been a significant contributing factor to failures at the strategic, operational,
and tactical levels. As detailed in Chapter 6, policymakers’ and implementers’ poor
U.S. soldiers with
the 1st Battalion, 5th
Cavalry Regiment man
an observation post
overlooking Highway
understanding of the Afghan context was partially a byproduct of poor security, which
1 in Wardak province
restricted access to critical information for planners and practitioners alike.391 As a on August 12, 2013.
consequence of incomplete information, planners made sometimes bold assumptions (U.S. Army photo by
1st Lt. Yau-liong Tsai)
about the country, many of which turned out to be incorrect, leaving practitioners to
execute plans that were, in effect, designed for a different country context.
For example, many U.S. policymakers concluded that an emphasis on

counterinsurgency in Iraq led to significant improvement there, and the model might
prove equally promising in Afghanistan.392 However, the differences between Iraq and
Afghanistan were stark across a range of indicators—including levels of urbanization,
unemployment, education, and public health. Yet none of these significant
differences deterred the United States from using the Iraq experience as a model
for Afghanistan.393 In the process, the U.S. government mistakenly assumed that the
governance challenges were somewhat equivalent in both countries; in fact, they were
not.394 As a consequence, the United States made unrealistic assumptions about the
prospects for economic and security-related progress.395
AUGUST 2021 | 71
U.S. Navy Lt. Jg. Anthony Delgadillo, Khost Provincial Reconstruction Team engineer, looks at the foundation for
an addition to the Sadiq Rohee boys’ school with the site engineer, on June 10, 2010. (U.S. Air Force photo by
Sr. Amn. Julianne M. Showalter, Khost PRT public affairs office)
Although some missteps in Afghanistan were the result of unavoidable assumptions about
unknown aspects of Afghan society, in other cases decision-makers seem to have made
unnecessary assumptions about the Afghan context that could have been easily verified.
U.S.-built schools provide a case in point: The design of some U.S.-funded schools
required a crane to install a heavy roof, but cranes could not be used in the mountainous
terrain that is characteristic of many parts of the country. Local Afghan contractors
were also unfamiliar with U.S. construction methods, leading to sometimes shoddy
workmanship. Adapted designs featured lighter roofs that did not require cranes, but
the less robust construction was unable to support heavy snow loads, rendering them
unusable.396 U.S.‑built schools were also required to have entrance ramps and extra-
wide doors to comply with the Americans with Disabilities Act, even though they were
sometimes constructed in rugged terrain that was itself inaccessible to wheelchairs.397
NGOs argued that such building standards pushed costs higher for U.S.-built schools,
which reportedly cost four to five times as much as those built by European non-
profits.398 In other cases, planners selected unsuitable construction sites, such as steep
slopes or riverbeds, which they could have avoided if they had consulted a topographic
map or aerial imagery.399
These unforced errors involved basic aspects of the Afghan environment, such as terrain
and climate. The U.S. government was even less adept at perceiving and adapting to the
country’s social and cultural environment.
LACK OF AWARENESS ALLOWED CORRUPTION TO GROW

Early on the United States seems to have misunderstood the dynamics of political
power in Afghanistan, particularly the role of patronage networks, which were born
72 | CONTEXT
of several decades of armed conflict and had become entrenched in the country’s
political economy.400 As the United States would discover, the fact that Afghanistan Political economy is
lacked formalized governance institutions in the western tradition did not mean that the underlying political
there was ample space for the outside introduction and cultivation of those institutions. context within which
Efforts to build Western-style governance institutions and populate them with the heads reform processes
of preexisting patronage networks simply empowered malign actors, who did not “self- are conducted.
correct” as some officials may have hoped they would. Consequently, a number of key Political economy
local allies of the United States—some of whom had themselves been deposed by the informs how power
Taliban to widespread applause—often actively countered U.S. efforts to foster good is used to manage
governance and economic growth.401 resources and how
political will enables
As SIGAR highlighted in a report on corruption in Afghanistan, or undermines reform.
By legitimizing warlords with political and financial support, the United States
helped empower a class of strongmen at the local and national levels who
had conflicted allegiances between their own power networks and the Afghan
state. Indirectly, the United States helped to lay a foundation for continued
impunity of malign actors, weak rule of law, and the growth of corruption.
Although U.S. agencies recognized the dangers of aligning with warlords, they
did not fully appreciate the risks this posed to the mission in Afghanistan.402
Indeed, the corruption that the U.S. and coalition allies encountered in Afghanistan
seems to have been viewed the same way as it would be in the United States—
as the deviant criminal behavior of individual Afghan officials, rather than a
systemic phenomenon.403
The U.S. government’s misreading of the Afghan social and political environment meant
that initiatives designed to stabilize and rehabilitate the country were poorly adapted
to the local context. Programs to improve the economy were particularly vulnerable to
the machinations and predation of Afghan powerbrokers.404 SIGAR’s report on private
sector development in Afghanistan, for example, found that “the technical and financial
assistance provided to Afghan institutions and firms relied mainly on Western technocratic
models that often failed to adequately consider how powerful Afghan social groups and
institutions influenced public policy and the functioning of markets.” The rush to privatize
assets and industries without mitigating the undue influence of established patronage
networks made elite capture of assets almost inevitable.405 The U.S. government’s
failure to understand and mitigate that capture meant that privatization of state owned
enterprises not only failed to reap the intended economic benefits, but also fostered
corruption and limited business-friendly government reforms.406
Just as the U.S. government struggled to recognize the activities of rapacious Afghan
elites, so too did U.S. officials fail to understand how and why lower echelons of
Afghan society resisted certain economic reforms. Many rank and file civil servants,
for example, had grown accustomed to controlling the formal economy and did not
welcome the advent of a Western-style market economy that relegated the state
to merely supporting economic affairs. Many of these Afghan officials effectively
obstructed or derailed initiatives meant to improve the country’s business climate.407
AUGUST 2021 | 73
Making the country more hospitable to the private sector also meant establishing a
new legal framework and institutions for governing business activity. However, the
laws that emerged from the post-Taliban state building effort were drafted by foreign
advisors with only limited involvement of their Afghan counterparts. The wide-ranging
legal concepts reflected in those laws sometimes conflicted with local Afghan traditions,
inviting criticism that such Western imports were insensitive to local norms, specifically
Sharia refers to Islamic the tenets of Sharia law.408 Such criticism emanated not just from reclusive clerics in
legal codes based Afghanistan’s hinterlands, but also from parliamentarians serving in Kabul, some of
on the Koran, Hadith, whom sought to supplement or replace the Western-sponsored banking system with an
and Sunna. Islamic version.409 Meanwhile, Western advisors’ insufficient grasp of Sharia prevented
them from effectively responding to Sharia-related objections to the international
community’s economic programs.410
IMPOSING FORMAL INSTITUTIONS ON AN INFORMAL ENVIRONMENT

Likewise, the United States misjudged what would constitute an acceptable justice
system from the perspective of many Afghans, which ultimately created an opportunity
for the Taliban to exert influence at the local level. Between 2003 and 2015, the U.S.
government spent more than $1 billion on rule of law programming in Afghanistan, with
approximately 90 percent of that funding going toward the development of a formal legal
system.411 That system, however, was foreign to most Afghans, who favored informal,
community-level traditional dispute resolution mechanisms, where an estimated 80 to
90 percent of civil disputes have always been handled.412 Such informal justice systems
operate by rules familiar to most Afghans, and the system is far more efficient.413 In
the formal court system, cases can languish for months—despite hundreds of millions
of U.S. dollars spent on legal reform efforts.414 Sibghatullah, who oversaw U.S. efforts
to staff local governments during the U.S. surge, explained to SIGAR the reluctance of
Afghans to use the formal court system:
For the first year after Marjah [Helmand] was cleared [in 2010], formal
judiciary officials only heard five cases because no one was used to it.
Locals would tell us, “We’ve never seen this and need to see if it works.”
They also didn’t think it was practical because of the slow appeals process.
Some believed locals were not using it because of Taliban intimidation, but
they were still going to the district governor for dispute resolution, so they
couldn’t have been afraid. And when the district governor would refer them
to formal judiciary officials and the huqooq [mediator], whose job it was to
address those grievances, locals never followed up with them.415
While the U.S. and the Afghan governments focused on extending governance through
the provision of services—including the formal justice system—the Taliban competed
for popular support by providing a semblance of security and justice via their own
version of traditional dispute resolution. While the outcomes of the Taliban-run
processes may not have always delivered what the United States would consider to be
just and equitable outcomes, the path to those outcomes was much quicker and more
familiar to many Afghans than the U.S.-sponsored system.416 As Farid Mamundzai, the
74 | CONTEXT
Afghans stand outside a CERP-funded appellate courthouse in Mehtarlam, Laghman Province on June 4, 2013.
(DOD Photo by Spec. Hilda Clayton)
former deputy minister of the Independent Directorate for Local Governance, told
SIGAR, the “rules of justice the Taliban follow are already understood in society, which
makes [them] easier for the population to accept.” That broader acceptance among
Afghans seems to have generated at least a modicum of legitimacy for the group among
some Afghans.417
International legal experts were highlighting the U.S.-led coalition’s inattention to

informal justice in Afghanistan as early as 2007.418 By 2009, State acknowledged the
importance of traditional dispute resolution, and even claimed it was a “pillar” of the
coalition’s effort, despite the fact that informal justice programming was receiving
only a fraction of the funding devoted to the formal system.419 One explanation for
that disparity is that senior U.S. policymakers were unable to accept the implications
of supporting traditional dispute resolution, even while some corners of the
bureaucracy recognized its potential. One former senior USAID official told SIGAR
that “we dismissed the traditional justice system because we thought it didn’t have
any relevance for what we wanted to see in today’s Afghanistan.”420
Similarly, positioning traditional dispute resolution to compete with the Taliban

would have put the United States dangerously close to endorsing principles that were
politically untenable. As former senior State advisor Barnett Rubin told SIGAR, “Trying
to compete with the Taliban’s successful dispute resolution would have meant allowing
sharia, and that’s not something we could do politically.”421 In other words, much like
our economic agenda, which floundered in a political economy dominated by patronage
networks, U.S. officials chose to pursue a vision for Afghanistan’s justice system that
reflected American values and preferences, without sufficient regard for what was
practical or possible.
AUGUST 2021 | 75
POOR UNDERSTANDING OF LOCAL CONTEXT

EXACERBATED CONFLICT
Policymakers’ ignorance of the Afghan context at the highest strategic levels were
mirrored by officials and implementers at the program level and below. Jabar Naimee,
who served as governor of Kunduz, Wardak, Khost, and Laghman Provinces, told SIGAR
that “in the majority of districts, we never even heard the real problems of the people.
We made assumptions, conducted military operations, brought in government staff,
and assumed it would lead to security and stability.”422 As practitioners followed the
counterinsurgency script with insufficient attention to local context, they implemented
projects that sometimes unwittingly supported one powerbroker or interest group at
the expense of another, thereby stoking local conflicts and creating an opportunity
for insurgents to form an alliance with the disaffected party.423
“Trying to compete with the Taliban’s successful dispute resolution

would have meant allowing sharia, and that’s not something
we could do politically.”
—Barnett Rubin, former State advisor
Blunders like these were partially a result of insufficient information, which was difficult
to obtain in an active conflict environment like Afghanistan.424 On the other hand, it
is unclear that policymakers and practitioners could have developed a sufficiently
detailed and accurate understanding of the complex social environment in Afghanistan
even under the best of circumstances. As a member of General Stanley McChrystal’s
assessment team observed, implementing an effective counterinsurgency campaign
requires “a level of local knowledge that I don’t have about my own hometown.”425
American advisors, practitioners, and coalition partners confronted by the opaque social
and political environment became reliant on local partners for information and insights,
which made them vulnerable to their manipulation and exploitation. One U.S. official,
for example, told SIGAR that his team was “played all the time by the Afghans.”426
Implementing an effective counterinsurgency campaign requires

“a level of local knowledge that I don’t have about my own hometown.”
—Advisor to General Stanley McChrystal
The form of those manipulations varied, but one of the most damaging saw local Afghan
“allies” exploit U.S. agencies for financial gain and share a portion of the proceeds
with insurgents, who were paid to refrain from attacking convoys and project sites.
For example, private security contractors who were paid to protect DOD and USAID
assets diverted a substantial percentage of their contract awards to insurgents to buy
their cooperation—making the insurgents in effect unofficial subcontractors to the
U.S. government.427 Likewise, as SIGAR found in a 2016 report, widespread corruption
76 | CONTEXT
Soldiers from 2nd Platoon, Alpha Company, 1-503rd Infantry Battalion, 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team
and soldiers from the Afghanistan National Army 6th Kandak provide security at the scene of an oil tanker
attacked by insurgents near Sheikhabad, Sayed Abad District, Wardak Province, on January 3, 2010. (U.S.
Army photo by 2nd Lt. Jeff Hall)
in the Afghan government meant U.S. money flowed to the insurgency through a web of
corruption that encompassed Afghan “officials, drug traffickers, transnational criminals,
and insurgent and terrorist groups.”428 As these examples reveal, U.S. misunderstanding
of the incentives and behavior of “local allies” had a direct, countervailing effect on our
efforts to secure and stabilize the country.
U.S. OFFICIALS HAD A LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF THE VERY

INSTITUTIONS THEY BUILT
The U.S. government’s ignorance of Afghanistan’s social landscapes was not limited
to complex village politics or sordid ties between insurgents and nominal U.S. allies.
In fact, the United States appears to have been equally incapable of grappling with and
adapting to the social dynamics within the very institutions it fostered in Kabul. This
applies even to the most critical institutions for maintaining stability, the Afghan National
Defense and Security Forces, in which the United States has invested over $83 billion.429
For example, by providing material support and equipment to certain units within the
ANDSF without consideration for ethnic dynamics between units, the United States
could be perceived as biased in favor of one ethnic group or faction at the expense of
another. A 2017 SIGAR report on the development of the ANDSF underscored that point,
finding that the United States “largely ignored” intra-force political dynamics, which led
to “major social and political imbalances” within the ANDSF.430
U.S. policymakers also overlooked the human capital constraints of the Afghan
population. Advanced weapons systems, vehicles, and logistics used by Western
militaries were beyond the capabilities of the largely illiterate and uneducated
Afghan force, which led Western advisors to intervene and perform the tasks at hand
AUGUST 2021 | 77
An Afghan National Army recruit receiving literacy training during Basic Warrior Training at the Regional Military
Training Center in Kandahar. (Photo by Adrienne Brammer)
themselves, rather than see them done poorly or not at all.431 The result was to create
long-term dependencies and delay the U.S. disengagement.432
Solving the Afghan security forces’ human capital problem was not simply a matter of
redoubling the military training effort. The Afghan population’s low levels of education
and literacy meant that trainees actually required a customized training regimen tailored
to their low baseline, rather than a replication of training that was offered in other
contexts—for example, PowerPoint-based curricula used in the Balkans.433 Furthermore,
the limited number of educated, literate, and professional members of the ANDSF
who did not require remedial training were likely to be syphoned off by specialized
units, the civil service, or the private sector, which afforded higher pay and a less
dangerous occupation.434
In Afghanistan, the United States seems to have labored to develop an ANDSF that could
not be derived from the extant Afghan population without significant cultural shifts,
including the erosion of factionalism, the development of a stronger education system—
and, as it turns out, altered gender norms.
THE UNITED STATES STRUGGLED TO ACCOUNT

FOR GENDER DYNAMICS
U.S. efforts to promote gender equality have occurred against the backdrop of the
country’s decades-old struggle between traditionalists and modernists over the role
of women in Afghan society. Afghanistan’s troubled history of efforts to reform gender
roles date back to the late 19th century, and often faced violent resistance, especially
in rural communities.435 Yet as they sought to advance the status and rights of Afghan
78 | CONTEXT
women and girls, U.S. agencies often failed to adequately appreciate the Afghan cultural
context and acute sensitivities around gender norms, or to set realistic goals that
reflected the barriers to progress.
For example, it was not until 2014 that USAID placed staff with expertise on gender
issues in each of the agency’s technical offices in Kabul. For many years, without enough
gender advisors to cover the breadth of development programs being designed and
implemented, gender analyses were often delayed or ineffective—despite being required
by agency guidelines.436 Multiple officials and gender specialists told SIGAR that failure
to anticipate the Afghan cultural context undercut U.S. efforts to support women and
girls.437 Further, many U.S. strategy documents did not properly address the formidable
cultural and social barriers to advancing women’s rights.438
U.S.-supported recruitment targets for women in the ANDSF were highly unrealistic,
despite significant financial support dedicated to increasing female participation.439
U.S. officials lowered the recruitment targets over time as they grappled with
countervailing forces, including familial pressure, childcare responsibilities, cultural
restrictions on women’s mobility, and—especially within the police force—the threat
of sexual harassment and abuse.440
WILLFUL DISREGARD FOR CRITICAL INFORMATION

When the United States and its allies invaded Afghanistan in late 2001, they embarked
on an ambitious effort to encourage or even impose broad reforms that touched
essentially all aspects of Afghan society, including politics, economics, education,
defense, rule of law, and the societal roles and relations between men and women.
Women spin thread at an Agriculture Fair in Mazar-e Sharif, Balkh Province in 2009. (USAID photo)
AUGUST 2021 | 79
The U.S. government pursued these reforms while simultaneously attempting to

quell multiple security threats, including a burgeoning Taliban insurgency, a powerful
narcotics industry, warlords entrenched in the Afghan government, and a nascent local
affiliate of the Islamic State. Yet as this chapter demonstrates, rarely did U.S. officials
have even a mediocre understanding of the environment, much less how it was
responding to U.S. interventions.
In fact, blaming mistakes on a simple lack of information may be charitable. Many

mistakes were borne from a willful disregard for information that may have been
available. After all, in many cases, the U.S. government’s very purpose was to usher in
an orderly revolution that would replace existing Afghan social systems with western or
“modern” systems. If the intention was to build institutions from scratch, understanding
and working within the country’s traditional systems was unnecessary. As one former
senior USAID official told SIGAR, “We wanted to give them something they had never
had before.”441
But instead of being a society deconstructed to its foundation by conflict and primed
for the introduction of western political, economic, and judicial systems, it turned out
Afghanistan was a complex society with ingrained traditions and an incorrigible political
economy. These traditions were neither easy to uproot and replace, nor could they be
shoehorned into a Western institutional framework, as evidenced by the attempts to use
strongmen and warlords to build a nascent bureaucracy.

• What kind of expertise does reconstruction require? How can U.S. agencies develop
sufficient knowledge about best practices in reconstruction between missions?
Would doing so require new offices and institutions, or new capacities in existing
offices and institutions? For any mission that grows, how can this capacity be
thoughtfully adapted and scaled?
• What changes need to be made to U.S. government programs in conflict-affected
countries to ensure granular research is conducted in targeted communities or
institutions before programming begins? How can the program design phase include
more extensive consultation with diverse representatives of local communities and
would-be beneficiaries?
• How can the Congress motivate agencies to prepare for reconstruction missions?
What oversight model would best encourage agencies to develop local understanding
of populations and institutions as a precondition for effective programming?
80 | CONTEXT

DOD and USAID should prioritize developing and retaining human terrain analytical
expertise that would allow a more nuanced understanding of local communities.442
At the onset of any contingency operation, the intelligence community should analyze
links between host government officials, corruption, criminality, trafficking, and terrorism.
This baseline assessment should be updated regularly.443
DOD, State, USAID, and the intelligence community should each designate a senior
anticorruption official to assist with strategic, operational, and tactical planning at
headquarters at the onset of and throughout a contingency operation.444
To prevent the empowerment of one political faction or ethnic group, DOD, in

coordination with State and the intelligence community, should monitor and evaluate
all formal and informal security forces operating within a host nation. DOD should also
identify and monitor both formal and informal chains of command and map social
networks of the host nation’s security forces. DOD’s intelligence agencies should track
and analyze political associations, biographical data, and patronage networks of senior
security force and political leadership.445
The Congress should consider requiring certification from State that viable alternative
livelihoods are in place and potential negative outcomes have been considered prior
to the obligation of funding for drug-crop eradication.446
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LESSON 7
U.S. government agencies rarely
conducted sufficient monitoring
and evaluation to understand
the impact of their efforts.
CHAPTER 8
MONITORING AND EVALUATION
M onitoring and evaluation (M&E) is the process of determining what works, what
does not, and what needs to change as a result.447 Conceptually, M&E is relatively
straightforward, but in practice, it is extremely challenging.448 This is especially true
A USAID-funded program
evaluator interviews an
elder in Aybak District,
Samangan Province, in May
2014. (USAID photo)
in complex and unpredictable environments like Afghanistan, where staff turnover
is rapid, multiple agencies must coordinate programs simultaneously, security and
access restrictions make it hard to understand a program’s challenges and impact, and
a myriad of variables compete to influence outcomes.449 The absence of periodic reality
checks created the risk of doing the wrong thing perfectly: A project that completed
required tasks would be considered “successful,” whether or not it had achieved or
contributed to broader, more important goals.450
SIGAR’s extensive audit work on sectors spanning health, education, rule of

law, women’s rights, infrastructure, security assistance, and others collectively
paints a picture of U.S. agencies struggling to effectively measure results while
sometimes relying on shaky data to make claims of success.451 In Afghanistan, the
U.S. government’s M&E efforts have been underemphasized and understaffed because
the overall campaign focused on doing as much as possible as quickly as possible,
rather than ensuring programs were designed well to begin with and could adapt as
needed.452 As a result, the U.S. government missed many opportunities to identify critical
flaws in its interventions or to act on those that were identified.453 These shortcomings
AUGUST 2021 | 83
endangered the lives of U.S., Afghan, and coalition government personnel and civilians,
and undermined progress toward strategic goals.454
While conducting effective M&E in Afghanistan is more challenging than in many

countries, U.S. agencies face similar hurdles in conducting M&E in other countries,
including such volatile places as Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen. Thus, many of the lessons
learned in Afghanistan apply to the U.S. government’s work elsewhere.455 In 2018, USAID
reported that the vast majority of countries in which it had worked over the previous
20 years had experienced some degree of violence that affected its programs.456 Other
impediments to thoughtful M&E are internal. Former USAID Administrator Andrew
Natsios has observed that “good development practice requires experimentation, risk
taking, and innovation,” but there is little room for any of those attributes in the modern
bureaucracy of many donors, including USAID and the World Bank. In his view, USAID
is particularly risk averse because of its lack of political support in Washington.457
The three agencies through which the U.S. spent the most money on reconstruction in
Afghanistan were DOD, USAID, and State.458 While DOD has significantly more resources
(see Chapter 2), none of the three make M&E a sufficient agency-wide priority. Doing
so would require nothing short of a transformation in institutional culture and staffing
practices at all three agencies.459 For example, personnel incentives could be altered to
reward staff who use M&E to improve program performance, instead of rewarding staff
who manage the most expensive programs, as they often do today. Agencies also need
to develop cultures in which admitting failure is not only acceptable, but encouraged.460
Without an honest assessment of what has worked and what has not, course correction
is impossible and decisions on resourcing cannot be guided by program effectiveness.
Only the Congress and agency leadership can create such a transformation by
encouraging staff to focus on program quality and by declining opportunities to punish
them when their analyses reveal problems.
Adequate M&E systems exist on paper but are not followed.461 In general, State and
USAID have much less flexible spending authorities and leaner staffing and funding than
DOD, which constrains their abilities to adjust programming to new information and
realities.462 Of these, USAID has the most rigorous M&E systems. Congressional scrutiny
of USAID’s budget has demanded greater investment in M&E, while the opposite is
true of DOD.463 Even though the scale of DOD’s reconstruction spending in Afghanistan
was significantly greater than those of USAID and State combined, for most of the
reconstruction effort DOD lacked a uniformly applied M&E policy.464
INSUFFICIENT STAFFING
M&E at all three agencies also suffered because of insufficient personnel, but to
varying degrees. As SIGAR’s lessons learned report on M&E found, “an enduring
feature of contingency environments like Afghanistan is that when spending increases,
oversight generally does not keep pace.”465 Because agencies lacked the organic
capacity to perform all of the many functions they were asked to take on, they hired
84 | MONITORING AND EVALUATION

an unprecedentedly large contractor force.466 The M&E report further noted that
“virtually every report written on reconstruction has pointed out that contract oversight
personnel are overworked, overburdened, or too few in number.”467
U.S. government personnel and expatriate implementing partner staff lacked access
to project sites to do their own assessments of programming.468 Instead, in Afghanistan
and elsewhere, they attempt to triangulate information from different sources, such as
local government officials and community representatives.469 All three agencies also tried
to mitigate their M&E deficits by outsourcing it to third party contractors.470 Given how
limited M&E resources and capacity were, many aspects of M&E were outsourced to the
same company or organization implementing the program in the first place, effectively
assigning them to oversee themselves.471 Staffing issues were particularly acute at USAID,
which had seen its global staff slashed from 12,000 during the Vietnam era to 2,000 by
2008.472 At one point, the agency determined that, in order to meet the U.S. government’s
average ratio of dollars to contracting officers, it would have to send nearly its entire
overseas workforce to work only in Afghanistan.473 State had similar problems.474 Even
DOD, which had by far the largest workforce, suffered from a shortage of qualified civil
affairs personnel to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of CERP programming.475
PERENNIAL STRUGGLES: MONITORING WHAT HAPPENED,

EVALUATING WHETHER IT WORKED, AND LEARNING TO IMPROVE
In theory, monitoring and evaluation has three main components. The first, referred
to as monitoring by USAID and State and sometimes as measuring performance by
DOD, is the most straightforward and also receives the most emphasis. It involves
determining whether a program is doing what it was designed to do, including
undertaking specific activities in the number and at the speed planned.476 The second,
referred to as evaluation by USAID and State and sometimes as measuring effectiveness
by DOD, entails determining whether a program or portfolio of programs is achieving
its goals in order to inform current or future programming.477 If not, evaluation seeks
to determine whether that is because of poor program design, poor implementation,
or both.478 Evaluations should include the identification of flawed assumptions—either
explicit or implicit—and unintended consequences.479 However, they often fail to do
so, and, when they do, agencies sometimes fail to adjust programming in response.480
USAID determined that, in order to meet the U.S. government’s

average ratio of dollars to contracting officers, it would have to send
nearly its entire overseas workforce to work only in Afghanistan.
Regardless of the source of the failure, the third component, learning, involves course
corrections to ongoing or planned programs or strategies based on evaluation findings.481
Learning is the feedback loop from the programmatic level up to the group or portfolio
of programs, and may require readjustment to higher-level strategies.482 Agencies found
monitoring easier than evaluation or learning, so they tended to place more emphasis
AUGUST 2021 | 85
A USAID-funded program evaluator in Paghman District, Kabul Province, is taught how to take GPS coordinates
during site inspections. (USAID photo)
on it.483 For example, it was easier to count the number of schools built than it was to
determine whether there were children learning in them or whether their construction
convinced Afghans to support their government.484 “That was always the last 10 yards
that we couldn’t run,” remembered a former senior U.S. military official. “We never
broke the code on impact.”485
EVEN MONITORING WAS SPOTTY

Although easier than determining a program’s actual effectiveness, monitoring its
implementation was still difficult. Agencies were sometimes unable to establish
with confidence even the most basic information, and they often reported unverified
project information. SIGAR has found that the extant data on the Army’s Commander’s
Emergency Response Program is spotty, with significant gaps, omissions, and
duplicates.486 Sometimes problems like these were not just oversights. One former senior
USAID official recounted how a clandestine business in Kandahar would, for a fee,
provide contractors with generic photographs of projects customized with fraudulent
geotags embedded in the digital photos, to help contractors defraud USAID.487
The highest standard of rigorous evaluation is establishing that an intervention caused,

or at least contributed to, a desired outcome.488 This precision is extremely difficult
in an environment as complex as Afghanistan, where the fog of war often means the
U.S. government has a limited understanding of the environment, the problem, the
intended solution, and how all three are interacting.489 Further, it is easy for cause and
effect to blur when donors have many programs running simultaneously and a plethora
of Afghan stakeholders all have their own goals which are often at odds with those of
donors.490 Most of these moving parts are beyond the control of any program, agency,

or donor—for example, whether a local powerbroker will interfere in a project, or

whether the Afghan government will fulfill its commitment to purge corrupt officials.
M&E for reconstruction programs was especially difficult because the goals, such
as “promote effective governance that is acceptable to the Afghan people,” were often
intangible.491 The complex causal chains through which donors sought to achieve
change made assigning impact to any one program extraordinarily difficult.492 SIGAR
has repeatedly identified data quality problems with metrics, such as those touted by
USAID as showing improvements in life expectancy, maternal mortality, and school
enrollment.493 However, even if these statistics were reliable, they are not enough
to determine whether USAID’s health programming improved perceptions of the
Afghan government. This is particularly true because, in reality, many programs were
implemented by NGOs rather than the Afghan government.494 It was also unclear how
to accurately measure popular perceptions of legitimacy. U.S. officials often tried to
do so through public opinion polling, the shortcomings of which are covered in multiple
SIGAR reports.495
As a result of challenges in measuring less tangible outcomes, M&E efforts tended to

select indicators that were sometimes less relevant but more measurable, sometimes
referred to as “proxy indicators.”496 There was a pervasive overemphasis on quantitative
indicators at the expense of critical qualitative context during both monitoring and
evaluation. Precision is often a façade, quantifiability frequently obscures important
nuance or qualification, and measurability is not always a good proxy for efficacy.497
There have also been criticisms that the focus was on what agencies were doing with their
budgets rather than what they were achieving.498
EVALUATION WAS STYMIED BY STRATEGIC CONFUSION, WHEN IT

WAS TRIED AT ALL
M&E is supposed to be based on clear theories, articulated during program design,
indicating how a specific intervention or series of interventions will achieve the desired
change.499 During implementation, programs should continually assess whether those
theories, and the assumptions underlying them, are proving correct.500 However,
poorly informed program design often left the theory of change unclear, internally
contradictory, or fundamentally flawed.501 As detailed in Chapter 2, confusion at the
program level stemmed from a lack of clarity at the strategic level.502 That lack of clarity
in the proposed causal chain presented obvious problems for testing its efficacy.503
In addition, agencies frequently simply failed to test the assumptions in the causal chain
underlying program design.504
Sometimes agencies did not attempt evaluation at all, despite requirements that they
do so.505 For example, SIGAR’s 2017 audit of six projects funded by the Afghanistan
Infrastructure Fund found that all three agencies implementing the program failed
to establish metrics or measure progress towards their planned counterinsurgency
effects.506 DOD failed to establish metrics more often than State or USAID, including
AUGUST 2021 | 87
on more than $1.62 billion contracts to Dyncorp.507 Ultimately, impact was often just
assumed by all three agencies, supported by tautological arguments, anecdotes, and thin
connections between program activities and purported outcomes.508 SIGAR’s lessons
learned report on gender found that programs often claimed to have achieved their
goals, such as improving Afghan women’s access to justice or job opportunities, without
providing evidence—instead, relying on quotes from beneficiaries or the number
of women trained in a skill.509
LEARNING WAS RARE

Learning was often limited because good evaluations were ignored and poor ones
could not articulate or justify the required changes.510 A 2018 review of State’s foreign
assistance evaluation efforts found that the agency used evaluations in a “sporadic”
manner.511 When poor, evaluation quality impeded learning by failing to identify the core
problems or to suggest credible solutions.512 An unfavorable evaluation of a program
could have negative implications for its implementing partner and U.S. government staff
overseeing it, or could result in the program’s budget being cut. As a result, there was a
tendency for their language to be watered down. Sometimes, evaluations intentionally
obfuscated the truth.513 In addition, poor M&E sometimes left the United States unable
to determine which programs or combination of programs were most effective, making
it impossible to redirect more funding towards them.514
M&E is not useful if the findings it produces cannot be fed back into existing programs
in real time and used to inform the design of new ones.515 While the strategies and
circumstances programs seek to influence can change quickly, rigid regulations on how
funds can be spent prevent significant deviation from a program’s original purpose.
A USAID-funded program evaluator interviews an elder in Helmand Province in late 2013. (USAID photo)

Changing a contract is generally very time consuming and impeded by onerous

bureaucratic, legal, and technical obstacles.516 As many analysts have observed,
reducing these impediments is one critical way that M&E could be improved.517 SIGAR’s
M&E report found that it currently takes State about a year to revise or terminate
a contract.518 As a result, the agency often moves on to new awards instead of trying
to improve ongoing ones.519 SIGAR found similar problems at USAID.520
In addition, evaluations are often finalized too late to inform the programs they cover,
but too early to discern the program’s impact, which takes time to appear.521 Had these
evaluations been used to inform the next round of programs, they still would have been
useful, but this was rare. A RAND Corporation review of 89 think tank, academic, and
donor-funded studies of stabilization and development programming in Afghanistan
found that few of the recommendations from those studies had been implemented.522
INCORRECT THEORIES OF CHANGE, RESISTANCE TO HONESTY,

AND OBFUSCATION
Just as the different components of M&E varied in their level of difficulty, so too did
the challenges vary when conducting M&E at different scales. Program-level M&E was
the easiest, followed by M&E of groups of programs. Because lower levels of analysis
were easier, too much emphasis tended to be focused on them.523 In contrast, some
of the most useful but also challenging aspects of M&E include the development and
constant reassessment of robust, evidence-based models to connect programs to higher-
order strategic objectives. However, this was rarely done in a meaningful way.524 As one
senior U.S. official in Washington told SIGAR, “It was impossible to create good metrics.
We tried using troop numbers trained, violence levels, and control of territory, and none
of it painted an accurate picture. At the end of the day, there was nothing for us to latch
on to except for number of attacks against civilians, ANDSF, and [coalition partners].”525
In fact, program-level M&E report writers were discouraged from identifying strategic
errors that undermined the success of the program but could not be addressed at that
low level.526 This was particularly true if they were politically inconvenient, in which
case they were sometimes censored.527 This resulted in a system that prevented those
who were closest to the program, and best placed to recognize the disconnect between
strategy and programs, from raising those issues.
That, in turn, often broke the critical feedback loop meant to funnel information from
programs all over the country to central planning processes in Kabul and Washington.528
Theoretically, the strategy for the whole reconstruction campaign should shape the
theory of change for each portfolio of programs, which informed each program’s
design.529 But theories of change, and the evidence underpinning them, were even more
problematic at the portfolio level than the program level.530 USAID portfolio reviews
and mid-course stock-taking exercises were mandated to revalidate assumptions and
identify changes in context, but these suffered from the same intentional obfuscation
as program-level evaluations.531
AUGUST 2021 | 89
Before and after photographs of a flood protection wall built by USAID in Ahmadabad District, Paktiya Province. (USAID photo)
In a process similar to USAID’s portfolio review, DOD commanders and their staff
sometimes conduct contract management reviews to reassess the relevance of priority
contracts to the command’s mission. The Army has identified these as a best practice,
but they are neither defined in doctrine nor required in practice.532 However, there
were some examples of useful portfolio-level evaluation efforts. Germany conducted
a successful long-term impact review of its development activities over a period of
six years, in combination with a portfolio review of its reconstruction funding. The
German government said that these two exercises, while limited, provided a few key
points of reference for strategic decision-making.533 SIGAR’s lessons learned report on
stabilization covered a similarly pioneering effort by USAID to assess USAID and DOD’s
shared portfolio of stabilization programs, but it was concluded too late to provide
useful input into most of the programs it studied.534
“It was impossible to create good metrics. We tried using troop

numbers trained, violence levels, and control of territory, and none
of it painted an accurate picture. At the end of the day, there was
nothing for us to latch on to except for number of attacks against
civilians, ANDSF, and [coalition partners].”
—Senior U.S. official
Critical assumptions often went unchallenged and uncorrected. Thus, programs were
often blamed for poor performance when they had actually been set up to fail from the
outset. For example, for too long the U.S. government held onto the assumption that
it was creating a transparent, rule-bound Afghan government from scratch in a way
that would benefit the public. The United States failed to grasp the degree to which
American largesse was captured by Afghan elites—even in the face of strong evidence
that this was happening.535 Instead, as SIGAR’s lessons learned reports on reintegration
and counternarcotics found, U.S. programs empowered malign actors and exacerbated

preexisting inequities, undermining the legitimacy of the Afghan government they were
intended to bolster.536 A senior evaluation advisor told SIGAR that USAID is reluctant
to do political analysis, because doing so risks inconvenient conclusions. For example,
he said, USAID requested the removal of the term “mafia” as a description of the web
of corruption at high levels of the Afghan government.537 Excising a potentially offensive
term is one thing; trying to design and assess programming without acknowledging,
much less grappling with, the realities that term referred to is a recipe for failure.
MONEY SPENT, NOT IMPACT ACHIEVED, BECAME THE PRIMARY

METRIC OF SUCCESS
Another result of the broken feedback loop was that budgeting decisions were
often not made based on program effectiveness. A USAID official told SIGAR that
congressional earmarks and directives have had little to do with the quality of
programming. “It can go either way: you can have a bad evaluation and end up having
more money for an activity, or else you can have a good evaluation and end up with less
money for the activity,” the official said.538
Agencies faced massive pressure from the Congress to report that they were achieving
success. SIGAR’s lessons learned report on M&E summarized the drivers behind this
pressure as having been “overoptimism, an institutional drive to produce good news
stories, and the imperative to show progress in time to serve the ends of various
political timetables.”539 While a 2009 independent study on M&E found that this is a
problem for USAID globally, it may have been worse in Afghanistan because of the
high-profile nature of the mission.540 Pressure to produce good news undermined
program performance by discouraging the kind of honest assessments necessary to
fix problems.541 In the words of one evaluation consultant, “There’s always so much
pressure to present a good story, including leaving things out when they go wrong.”542
Each agency faced more pressure to do something than to do the right thing.543
Eventually, some programming began to be designed and implemented with the primary
goal of producing good news by achieving and reporting on quantitative outputs
as quickly as possible.544 In some cases it is clear that this dynamic greatly reduced
programmatic efficacy.545 The faulty program design of cash-for-work programs in
Helmand Province, for example, created unintended consequences: Spending was so
heavy that the local economy artificially tripled or quadrupled in size, and some teachers
quit their jobs because day labor paid better.546
Perversely, because it was the easiest thing to monitor, the amount of money spent
by a program often became the most important measure of success. A USAID official
told SIGAR, “The Hill was always asking, ‘Did you spend the money?’ . . . I didn’t hear
many questions about what the effects were.”547 Pressure to do more, spend more, and
make quick progress also came from senior agency leadership. Program budgets were
dramatically expanded, despite objections from USAID officials who argued that such
large sums would prove ineffective and wasteful.548 SIGAR’s lessons learned report on
AUGUST 2021 | 91
corruption found that “the incentive structure did not encourage U.S. officials to report
on waste, fraud, and abuse, or on weaknesses in oversight.” Nor were contractors
or NGOs, who benefitted from the largesse of the security and state-building effort,
incentivized to report such weaknesses.549 Likewise, a former senior military official and
a former civil affairs officer both said that spending more time measuring one project’s
impact would have meant less time requesting and implementing new projects, which was
an important criteria against which commanders and civil affairs units were judged.550
LESS AMBITIOUS PROGRAMMING, OR PRIORITIZE M&E

The reconstruction of Afghanistan has demonstrated that U.S. agencies’ failure to
strictly adhere to their own best practices regarding oversight ratios of dollars-to-
personnel is an existential threat to the success of their programs. Unless and until
agencies are permitted to dramatically increase their staffing levels for program
oversight and M&E, the only way to ensure that sufficient time and attention is
dedicated to M&E would be for agencies to significantly limit the scale and complexity
of the programming they undertake.551 More and better staffing would allow the
conceptual and logistical challenges to effective M&E to be given their due attention,
particularly for larger efforts. But better staffing alone would not be sufficient; M&E
needs to become a much higher priority for U.S. agencies. This is only possible if
congressional and internal agency policies recognize the immense challenges of
programming in countries like Afghanistan, and start encouraging experimentation and
learning as institutional values, rather than punishing failure in ways that ensure failures
will be repeated.
“The Hill was always asking, ‘Did you spend the money?’ . . . I didn’t
hear many questions about what the effects were.”
—USAID official

• What budgeting and organizational reforms are necessary to ensure U.S. programs
in conflict-affected environments prioritize impact? How can U.S. agencies ensure
that all programs are accompanied by rigorous M&E? How might their personnel
evaluation criteria need to change to reward thoughtful M&E over budget size or
burn rate?
• How might the Congress change the way it oversees agencies working in conflict-
affected environments so that it increases both its expectations and funding for
M&E? How can the Congress encourage thoughtful experimentation and normalize
failure, as long as both lead to demonstrable learning in reconstruction?


In order to maximize the effectiveness of future reconstruction programming, State,
USAID, and DOD should determine the 10 most successful, and 10 least successful,
reconstruction programs or projects of their respective department or agency. The
determination should be based on the extent to which the programs or projects
contributed to the accomplishment of U.S. strategic goals and should include a detailed
explanation of how the programs and projects were evaluated and selected. Its findings
should be incorporated into future planning, including planning for reconstruction-like
programs or projects in other countries, if applicable.552
State, USAID, and DOD should more regularly conduct impact evaluations to assess the
effects of contracted reconstruction and other foreign assistance programs, including
security sector assistance.553
DOD should design new monitoring and evaluation tools capable of analyzing both
tangible and intangible factors affecting force readiness.554
DOD and State should develop new metrics of effectiveness for foreign military training.555
USAID should continue to invest human, financial, and time resources in rigorous
monitoring, evaluation, and analysis, including establishing a long-term framework
that transcends individual projects.556
USAID should prioritize the collection of accurate and reliable data for its stabilization
projects.557
U.S. agencies responsible for counternarcotics efforts should use geospatial imagery,
crop mapping, and other effective monitoring and evaluation systems to more accurately
capture both development and counternarcotics outcomes. This data should be shared
among all U.S. agencies with counterdrug responsibilities.558
The Congress may wish to consider appropriating funds to DOD, State, and USAID
specifically for impact evaluation of both Afghanistan reconstruction programs and more
broadly for U.S. foreign assistance, including security sector assistance. An alternative
would be to mandate that a certain proportion of funds appropriated to these agencies
be used for impact evaluation.559
AUGUST 2021 | 93
CHAPTER 9
CONCLUSION: PREPARATION NEEDED
FOR RECONSTRUCTION TO SUCCEED
T his report raises critical questions about the U.S. government’s ability to carry out
reconstruction efforts on the scale seen in Afghanistan. As an inspector general’s
office charged with overseeing reconstruction spending in Afghanistan, SIGAR’s
Afghans sit on food
donations in the back
of a pickup truck before
distribution to needy
families in Nawa District,
approach has generally been technical; we identify specific problems and offer
Helmand Province,
specific solutions. However, after 13 years of oversight, the cumulative list of systemic in September 2010.
challenges SIGAR and other oversight bodies have identified is staggering. As former (U.S. Marine Corps photo
by Sgt. Mark Fayloga
National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley told SIGAR, “We just don’t have a post-conflict
stabilization model that works. Every time we have one of these things, it is a pick-up
game. I don’t have confidence that if we did it again, we would do any better.”560
This was equally apparent after the Vietnam War, when a war-weary and divided
country had little appetite to engage in another similar conflict. After Vietnam, for
example, the U.S. Army disbanded most active duty civil affairs units and reduced
the number of foreign area officers, the Army’s “regionally focused experts in political-
military operations.”561 Special Forces moved away from counterinsurgency and
instead focused on conducting small-scale operations in support of conventional
forces.562 And USAID’s global staff was gradually cut by 83 percent.563
In other words, according to former Vice Chief of Staff of the Army General Jack Keane,
“After the Vietnam War, we purged ourselves of everything that had to do with irregular
warfare or insurgency, because it had to do with how we lost that war. In hindsight,
AUGUST 2021 | 95
that was a bad decision.”564 After all, declining to prepare after Vietnam did not prevent
the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; instead, it ensured they would become quagmires.
Rather than motivating the U.S. government to improve, the difficulty of these missions
may instead encourage U.S. officials to move on and prepare for something new.
According to Robert Gates, former secretary of defense from 2006–2011:
I have noticed too much of a tendency towards what might be called ‘Next-
War-itis,’ the propensity of much of the defense establishment to be in
favor of what might be needed in a future conflict. . . . Overall, the kinds of
capabilities we will most likely need in the years ahead will often resemble
the kinds of capabilities we need today.565
The post-Afghanistan experience may be no different. As this report shows, there are
multiple reasons to develop these capabilities and prepare for reconstruction missions
in conflict-affected countries:
1. They are very expensive. For example, all war-related costs for U.S. efforts in
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan over the last two decades are estimated to be
$6.4 trillion.566
2. They usually go poorly.
3. Widespread recognition that they go poorly has not prevented U.S. officials from
pursuing them.
4. Rebuilding countries mired in conflict is actually a continuous U.S. government
endeavor, reflected by efforts in the Balkans and Haiti and smaller efforts currently
underway in Mali, Burkina Faso, Somalia, Yemen, Ukraine, and elsewhere.567
5. Large reconstruction campaigns usually start small, so it would not be hard for the
U.S. government to slip down this slope again somewhere else and for the outcome
to be similar to that of Afghanistan.568
Nevertheless, after the last two decades in Afghanistan and Iraq, State, USAID, and
DOD have all signaled they do not see large-scale missions as likely in the future. The
Stabilization Assistance Review approved by all three agencies in 2018 noted, “There is
no appetite to repeat large-scale reconstruction efforts, and therefore our engagements
must be more measured in scope and adaptable in execution.”569 Just as after Vietnam,
today U.S. policymakers and the public they serve may have sound reasons for avoiding
another prolonged conflict and reconstruction mission. However, that does not mean
such an endeavor is avoidable in the future.
As SIGAR’s stabilization report notes, “There will likely be times in the future when
insurgent control or influence over a particular area or population is deemed an imminent
threat to U.S. interests.”570 If the U.S. government does not prepare for that likelihood, it
may once again try to build the necessary knowledge and capacity on the fly. As seen in
Afghanistan and Iraq, doing so has proven difficult, costly, and prone to avoidable mistakes.
96 | CONCLUSION
President Barack Obama meets with his national security team on Afghanistan and Pakistan in the Situation
Room of the White House, on June 23, 2010. (Photo by Pete Souza)
As former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker observed, “You have to start
working on it before you need it.”571 One former senior DOD official likewise noted that
rebuilding another country requires advanced skills that must be cultivated ahead of
time. “You wouldn’t invent how to do infantry operations [or] artillery at the start of
a war. You need [to already have] the science behind [reconstruction] and people who
think about it 24/7.”572
Building on SIGAR’s body of work, as well as the work of inspector general offices
across the government, this report points to conceptual, administrative, and logistical
work that should be done between large-scale reconstruction efforts to increase the
U.S. government’s chances of success in future campaigns.
The nature and range of the investment necessary to properly prepare for these
campaigns is an open question. In previous lessons learned reports (see next page),
SIGAR has made recommendations for existing U.S. government offices to create a
database of qualified personnel to call up when necessary, build interagency doctrine
for security sector assistance, and establish anti-corruption offices within key agencies,
among others.573 As former U.S. envoy to Afghanistan James Dobbins observed, properly
preparing “doesn’t mean that you have to have a standing capability to immediately
train [an entire army], but you need to have the know-how and an ability to surge those
kinds of resources.”574 Others have argued that such an ability requires a permanent
office with the authority and funding to prepare for, plan, execute, and evaluate all
reconstruction missions.575
U.S. agencies should continue to explore how they can ensure they have the strategic
planning capabilities, reconstruction doctrine, policies, best practices, standard
operating procedures, institutional knowledge, and personnel structures necessary
for both large and small reconstruction missions.
AUGUST 2021 | 97
SIGAR Lessons Learned Reports

Corruption in Conflict Divided Responsibility
DIVIDED RESPONSIBILITY:
Lessons from the U.S. Experience LESSONS FROM U.S. SECURITY SECTOR
ASSISTANCE EFFORTS IN AFGHANISTAN
Lessons from U.S. Security Sector
in Afghanistan (2016) Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan (2019)
JUNE 2019
Reconstructing the Afghan National Reintegration of Ex-Combatants

REINTEGRATION OF
Defense and Security Forces EX-COMBATANTS: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan (2019)
LESSONS FROM THE U.S. EXPERIENCE IN AFGHANISTAN
in Afghanistan (2017)
September 2019
Private Sector Development Elections:

and Economic Growth ELECTIONS:
Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan (2021)
February 2021
Stabilization Support for Gender Equality

Lessons from the U.S. Experience SUPPORT FOR Lessons from the U.S. Experience
GENDER EQUALITY:
in Afghanistan (2018) in Afghanistan (2021)
February 2021
SIGAR | M&E OF RECONSTRUCTION CONTRACTING IN AFGHANISTAN | JULY 2021
Counternarcotics WASTE, FRAUD, OR ABUSE MAY BE REPORTED TO SIGAR’S HOTLINE
The Risk of Doing the Wrong
THE RISK OF DOING THE
Lessons from the U.S. Experience Thing Perfectly
Cell: 0700107300
DSN: 318-237-3912 ext. 7303

Toll-free: 866-329-8893
WRONG THING PERFECTLY:
MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF
DSN: 312-664-0378
in Afghanistan (2018) Monitoring and Evaluation

By fax: 703-601-4065
By email: sigar.hotline@mail.mil RECONSTRUCTION CONTRACTING
IN AFGHANISTAN
SIGAR 21-41-LL
of Reconstruction Contracting
SIGAR
2530 Crystal Drive

Arlington, VA 22202
www.sigar.mil
July 2021
Upcoming Topics
Policing
Personnel
Conditionality
98 | CONCLUSION
APPENDICES AND ENDNOTES
Spec. Michael Merlo, a

METHODOLOGY paratrooper with the 82nd
Airborne Division’s 1st
SIGAR conducts its lessons learned program under the authority of Public Law 110‑181 Brigade Combat Team,
walks through a field of
and the Inspector General Act of 1978, as amended. This report was completed in
wheat while on patrol in
accordance with the Council of the Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency’s Ghazni Province on June 15,
Quality Standards for Federal Offices of Inspector General (commonly referred to as 2012. (U.S. Army photo by
Sgt. Michael J. MacLeod)
“the Blue Book”). These standards require that we carry out our work with integrity,
objectivity, and independence, and provide information that is factually accurate and
reliable. SIGAR’s lessons learned reports are broad in scope and based on a wide range
of source material. To achieve the goal of high quality and to help ensure our reports
are factually accurate and reliable, the reports are subject to extensive review by
subject matter experts and relevant U.S. government agencies.
Unlike most SIGAR lessons learned reports, this 20th anniversary report draws
primarily from SIGAR’s body of work over the last 13 years, particularly its lessons
learned research. That larger body of work relies on publicly available material,
including reports by USAID, State, DOD, and coalition partner nations, as well as
books, think tank reports, journal articles, press reports, and academic studies.
SIGAR also relies on its access to material that is not publicly available, including
thousands of documents provided by U.S. government agencies, from strategies and
unclassified cables to program reports and evaluations.
AUGUST 2021 | 101

While the documentary evidence tells a story, it cannot substitute for the experience,
knowledge, and wisdom of people involved in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. SIGAR’s
Lessons Learned Program has conducted more than 760 interviews with current and
former U.S. and foreign government officials, implementing partners, contractors, and
experts since 2014. SIGAR’s lessons learned reports have made extensive use of these
interviews, which provide valuable insights into the rationale behind decisions, the
debates within and between U.S. and Afghan government agencies, and the frustrations
that spanned the years, but often remained unwritten.
Due in part to the politically sensitive nature of reconstruction efforts, a majority of the
interviewees that informed or were quoted in this report wished to remain anonymous.
For those still working in government, confidentiality was particularly important.
Therefore, to preserve anonymity, our interviews often cite a “senior U.S. official,”
a “USAID official,” or a “former NSC official.”
ACRONYMS
Acronym Definition
ALP Afghan Local Police
ANDSF Afghan National Defense and Security Forces
AWOL Absent without leave
CERP Commander’s Emergency Response Program (DOD)
CRS Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization (State)
CSTC-A Combined Security Transition Command – Afghanistan
DOD U.S. Department of Defense
GAO U.S. Government Accountability Office
IED Improvised explosive device
M&E Monitoring and evaluation
NSC National Security Council
PRT Provincial Reconstruction Team
SEAL U.S. Navy Sea, Air, and Land Teams
SIGAR Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction
TAPI Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline
USAID U.S. Agency for International Development
USFOR-A U.S. Forces – Afghanistan
102 | APPENDICES AND ENDNOTES

ENDNOTES
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Ricks observed, “Since World War II, civil affairs forces have 20 Government of Afghanistan, Ministry of Rehabilitation
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5 State, DOD, and USAID, “Stabilization Assistance Review,” Central Statistics Office, “Afghanistan Living Conditions
2018, p. 1. Survey 2013–2014: National Risk and Vulnerability
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in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 186. Central Statistics Office, “Afghanistan Living Conditions
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8 Former senior DOD official, SIGAR interview, October 19, 21 Robin Wright, “For Biden, An Anguishing Choice on
2015. Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” New Yorker, March 24, 2021;
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trillion. Watson Institute, “U.S. Costs to Date for the War response to SIGAR vetting, January 22, 2020, and January 25,
in Afghanistan, 2001–2021,” Brown University, April 2021, 2020; SIGAR analysis of data provided by Resolute Support,
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tronic p. 1. 2021.
12 Neta Crawford, “Update on the Human Costs of War for 24 Tobias Haque and Nigel Roberts, “Afghanistan’s Aid
Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001 to mid-2016,” Watson Requirements: How much aid is required to maintain a
Institute, August 2016, pp. 3, 9; UN Assistance Mission in stable state?,” Lessons for Peace: Afghanistan, Overseas
Afghanistan, “Afghanistan: Protection of Civilians in Armed Development Institute, October 2020, p. 4.
Conflict Midyear Update: 1 January to 30 June 2021,” July 25 UNODC, “Afghanistan Opium Survey 2019: Socio-economic
2021, p. 1. survey report: Drivers, causes and consequences of opium
13 SIGAR’s investigations have also led to 141 suspensions poppy cultivation,” February 2021, p. 7; Central Intelligence
and 582 debarments for individuals and companies accused Agency, Crime and Narcotics Center, response to SIGAR
or convicted of defrauding the U.S. government, denying data call, October 2015, March 2017, March 2018; SIGAR,
them future opportunities to commit such acts. Suspensions Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, July 30,
are temporary actions taken against a contractor under 2021, p. 25.
criminal investigation, or after criminal charges have been 26 Transparency International, “Corruption Perceptions Index,”
filed. Debarments are longer suspensions, generally of a 2005–2020, accessed March 3, 2021.
period of three years or less, and require a higher standard 27 World Bank, “World Development Indicators,” World Bank
of evidence. SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Databank, last updated February 17, 2021, accessed March
Congress, April 30, 2021, pp. 5, 22, 184–189. 1, 2021.
14 Ryan Crocker, SIGAR interview, January 11, 2016. 28 World Bank, “World Development Indicators,” World Bank
15 World Bank, “World Development Indicators,” World Bank Databank, last updated February 17, 2021, accessed March
Databank, last updated February 17, 2021, accessed April 1, 2021.
13, 2021. 29 UNDP Human Development Index, 2021.
AUGUST 2021 | 103

30 World Bank, “World Development Indicators,” World Bank 48 State, DOD, and USAID, “Stabilization Assistance Review,”
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3, 2021. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability,” 2020,
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and Development and the Central Statistics Office, “The 49 Global Fragility Act of 2019, as part of the Further
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p. 11; Government of Afghanistan, Central Statistics Office, § 501 (2019).
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A profile of Afghanistan,” 2009, p. 66; Government of Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2020, Pub. L, No. 116-44,
Afghanistan, Central Statistics Office, “The National Risk § 501 (2019).
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Conditions Survey,” 2012, p. iii; Government of Afghanistan, 52 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security
Central Statistics Office, “Afghanistan Living Conditions Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL,
Survey 2013–2014: National Risk and Vulnerability June 2019, pp. 127–128, 136–137.
Assessment,” 2016, p. iv; Government of Afghanistan, 53 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security
Central Statistics Office, “Afghanistan Living Conditions Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL,
Survey 2016–2017: Analysis report,” 2018, p. vii. June 2019, p. 123.
32 Former senior DOD official, SIGAR interview, September 14, 54 North Atlantic Treaty Organization, “North Atlantic Council,”
2015. updated October 10, 2017, accessed April 29, 2021; SIGAR,
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34 Former senior NSC official, SIGAR interview, October 1, Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL, June
2014. 2019, pp. 125–126.
35 Stephen Hadley, SIGAR interview, September 16, 2015. 55 David P. Auerswald and Stephen M. Saideman, NATO in
36 Douglas Lute, SIGAR interview, February 20, 2015. Afghanistan: Fighting Together, Fighting Alone (Princeton,
37 Former senior NSC official, SIGAR interview, July 14, 2015; NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014), p. 5.
former senior NSC official, SIGAR interview, October 21, 56 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security
2014; former senior State official, SIGAR interview, October Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL,
23, 2015; former senior DOD official, SIGAR interview, June 2019, pp. 123–124.
October 19, 2015. 57 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security
38 Senior U.S. official, SIGAR interview, September 16, 2016. Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL,
39 White House, “National Security Presidential Directive/ June 2019, pp. 136–137.
NSPD-44,” December 7, 2005, p. 2; former senior State 58 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security
Department official, SIGAR interview, July 10, 2015; former Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL,
senior State Department official, SIGAR interview, August June 2019, pp. 127–128.
18, 2015; SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. 59 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL,
pp. 54–55. June 2019, pp. 127–128.
40 Former senior DOD official, SIGAR interview, September 14, 60 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security
2015. Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL,
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Governors, Office of Inspector General, “Inspection of the 61 Condoleezza Rice, “Declaratory Policy on Afghanistan,”
Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations,” ISP-I-14-06, memorandum to White House and executive branch offi-
March 2014, pp. 1–2. cials, Rumsfeld Papers, September 27, 2001, p. 1.
42 Douglas Lute, SIGAR interview, February 20, 2015. 62 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
43 Senate Appropriations Committee, “FY21 Bill Highlights: in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 2.
Defense,” 2020, p. 1; Senate Appropriations Committee, 63 International Crisis Group, “The Insurgency in
“FY21 Bill Highlights: State, Foreign Operations, and Related Afghanistan’s Heartland,” June 27, 2011; RAND Corporation,
Programs,” 2020. “Understanding and Influencing Public Support for
44 State, “Global Talent Management Fact Sheet,” December Insurgency and Terrorism,” 2012, p. 78.
31, 2020; Reuters, “Factbox: U.S. and South Korea’s Security 64 Stephen Hadley, SIGAR interview, September 16, 2015.
Arrangement, Cost of Troops,” November 13, 2019; DOD, 65 Ryan Crocker, SIGAR interview, January 11, 2016.
Armed Forces Strength Figures, December 31, 2020. 66 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
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Efforts to Measure Performance,” GAO-17-657, August 67 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S.
2017, p. 2; State, “Global Talent Management Fact Sheet,” Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September
December 31, 2020. 2016, pp. 41–42; SIGAR, Elections: Lessons from the U.S.
46 Congressional Research Service, “Building an Interagency Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-16-LL, February 2021,
Cadre of National Security Professionals: Proposals, Recent p. 91.
Experience, and Issues for Congress,” RL34565, July 8, 68 Senior NATO official, SIGAR interview, February 24, 2015.
2008, p. 5; SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. 69 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 2.
p. 145. 70 Rory Stewart and Gerald Knaus, Can Intervention Work?
47 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience (New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company, 2011), pp. 50–58.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 195.

71 Bob Woodward, Obama’s Wars (New York, NY: Simon & 86 Rory Stewart and Gerald Knaus, Can Intervention Work?
Schuster, 2010), p. 49; PBS, “Interview with Antony Blinken,” (New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company, 2011), p. 50.
Frontline, July 9, 2020. 87 General Stanley McChrystal, “U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan,”
72 Douglas Lute, SIGAR interview, February 20, 2015. testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs,
73 Former senior State Department official, SIGAR interview, 111th Congress, December 10, 2009; Thom Shanker, “Top
October 23, 2015. U.S. Commander Sees Progress in Afghanistan,” New York
74 That same month, the Asian Development Bank, UNDP, and Times, February 4, 2010; ABC News, “Transcript: Gen.
the World Bank concluded it would cost far more—between Petraeus ABC News Exclusive Interview,” September 10,
$11 billion and $18 billion over 10 years—though that was 2010; “Afghanistan War Powers Resolution,” 112th Congress,
still a significant underestimation. USAID, “Afghanistan March 2011; New York Post, “NATO close to ‘decisive
Economic Recovery Plan: USAID Concept Paper,” January blow’ in Afghanistan, Gates says,” June 7, 2011; New York
2002, pp. 1–2; Asian Development Bank, UNDP, and World Post, “US surge troops out of Afghanistan, Panetta says,”
Bank, “Afghanistan: Preliminary Needs Assessment for September 21, 2012; BBC News, “Afghan ISAF command-
Recovery and Reconstruction,” January 2002, p. vi. er John Allen sees ‘road to winning,’” February 10, 2013;
75 James Dobbins, SIGAR interview, January 11, 2016. Associated Press, “Dunford takes over in Afghanistan,”
76 Mariana Tanovic, Stevo Pasalic, and Jelena Golijanin, Politico, February 10, 2013; General John F. Campbell,
“Demographic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina from “The Situation in Afghanistan,” testimony before the Senate
the Ottoman period till 1991 and the modern demograph- Armed Services Committee, 114th Congress, October 6,
ic problems,” Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2015; Cindy Saine, “Tillerson: US Set to ‘Turn the Tide’ in
vol. 20, March 2014, p. 245; MacroTrends, “Afghanistan Afghan War With New Strategy,” Voice of America, August
Population Growth Rate 1950–2021,” 2021; Operations 22, 2017; Tom Bowman, “‘The Taliban Can’t Win,’ Says
Evaluation Department, “Bosnia and Herzegovina: Post- Commander of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan,” NPR, October
Conflict Reconstruction and the Transition to a Market 13, 2017; Paul McLeary, “U.S. Has ‘Turned the Corner’ in
Economy,” World Bank, 2004, p. 3; Department of Economic Afghanistan, Top General Says,” Foreign Policy, November
and Social Affairs, “World Population Prospects,” United 28, 2017; DOD, “Statement by Acting Defense Secretary
Nations, 2015, p. 50; James Dobbins, Seth Jones, Keith Christopher Miller on Force Levels in Afghanistan,” press
Crane, and Beth Cole DeGrasse, “The Beginner’s Guide to release, January 15, 2021.
Nation-Building,” RAND Corporation, 2007, p. 39; Global 88 Dan Lamothe, “How 775,000 U.S. troops fought in one
Economy, “Bosnia and Herzegovina: Literacy Rate,” 2021; war: Afghanistan military deployments by the numbers,”
MacroTrends, “Afghanistan Literacy Rate 1979–2021,” Washington Post, September 11, 2019; SIGAR, Quarterly
2021; Operations Evaluation Department, “Bosnia and Report to the United States Congress, July 30, 2021, p. 25.
Herzegovina: Post-Conflict Reconstruction and the 89 White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “Remarks by the
Transition to a Market Economy,” World Bank, 2004, p. 3; President on the Way Forward in Afghanistan,” June 22, 2011.
Country Economy, “Afghanistan: GDP drops 5.7,” 2021; 90 White House, Office of the Press Secretary, transcript of
Government of Afghanistan, Ministry of Rehabilitation and President Barack Obama’s speech at Bagram Air Base,
Development and the Central Statistics Office, “The National May 1, 2012.
Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 2005,” 2007, p. 11. 91 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
77 World Bank, “Bosnia and Herzegovina: Post-Conflict January 31, 2021, p. 193.
Reconstruction and the Transition to a Market Economy,” 92 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
2004, pp. 3, 46. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 182, 216.
78 Economist, “Dating Dayton,” December 3, 2015. 93 White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “Statement by
79 Barnett Rubin, “Negotiations Are the Best Way to End the President on Afghanistan,” October 15, 2015.
the War in Afghanistan,” Foreign Affairs, March 1, 2019; 94 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
Anand Gopal, “The Battle for Afghanistan,” New America October 31, 2018, pp. 69–70; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to
Foundation, November 2010. For more on the multiple the United States Congress, April 30, 2019, pp. 73, 203–204.
missed opportunities to reconcile with the Taliban’s Haqqani 95 Kate Clark and Obaid Ali, “A Quarter of Afghanistan’s
Network, in particular, see Anand Gopal, “How the U.S. Districts Fall to the Taleban amid Calls for a ‘Second
Created the Afghan War—and Then Lost It,” Nation, April Resistance,’” Afghanistan Analysts Network, July 2, 2021.
29, 2014. 96 Nicholas Burns, SIGAR interview, January 14, 2016.
80 James Dobbins, Seth Jones, Keith Crane, and Beth Cole 97 Steve Coll, Directorate S: The C.I.A. and America’s Secret
DeGrasse, “The Beginner’s Guide to Nation-Building,” Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan (New York, NY: Pengu
RAND Corporation, 2007, p. xxi. in Press, 2018), p. 447.
81 James Dobbins, SIGAR interview, January 11, 2016. 98 State, “Revised Strategy for United States Engagement in
82 Former senior NSC official, SIGAR interview, July 14, 2015. Afghanistan,” 2017, p. 1; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the
83 Former senior USAID official, SIGAR interview, August United States Congress, January 31, 2021, p. 193; Anthony
15, 2016; SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Cordesman, “The Biden Transition and the Real Impact of
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, U.S. Force Cuts in Afghanistan,” Center for Strategic and
p. 102. International Studies, December 1, 2020.
84 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. 99 State, “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not
2016, p. 51. recognized by the United States as a state and is known as
85 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience the Taliban and the United States of America,” February 29,
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 51–53. 2020; James Dobbins, “Give Peace a Chance in Afghanistan,”
Hill, February 9, 2021.
AUGUST 2021 | 105

100 Robin Wright, “For Biden, An Anguishing Choice on 113 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S.
Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” New Yorker, March 24, 2021; Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018,
SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, p. 184.
January 30, 2021, p. 52; U.S. Department of the Treasury, 114 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security
“Memorandum for Department of Defense Lead Inspector Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL,
General: Operation Inherent Resolve—Summary of Work June 2018, p. 5.
Performed by the Department of the Treasury Related to 115 Paul Wolfowitz, “A Marshall Plan for Afghanistan,”
Terrorist Financing, ISIS, and Anti-Money Laundering for memorandum to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld,
First Quarter Fiscal Year 2021,” January 4, 2021; DOD, Lead September 30, 2001.
Inspector General, “Operation Freedom’s Sentinel: Report 116 Douglas J. Feith, “Afghanistan Strategy—Guidance for
to the United States Congress, October 1, 2020–December Northern Alliance,” memorandum for Secretary of Defense
31, 2020,” p. 15; CNN, “Biden Has No Good Options on Donald Rumsfeld, October 15, 2001.
Afghanistan with Deadline for Troop Withdrawal Looming,” 117 Douglas J. Feith, “Afghanistan Strategy—Guidance for
February 14, 2021. Northern Alliance,” memorandum for Secretary of Defense
101 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, Donald Rumsfeld, October 15, 2001; SIGAR, Stabilization:
January 30, 2021, pp. 50–53, 83–84. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
102 United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring 18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 11; Donald Wright, James R. Bird,
Team, “Twelfth report of the Analytical Support and Steven E. Clay, Peter Connors, Scott Farquhar, Lynne Garcia,
Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolu- and Dennis Van Wey, A Different Kind of War: The United
tion 2557 (2020) concerning the Taliban and other associat- States Army in Operation Enduring Freedom (Fort
ed individuals and entities constituting a threat to the peace Leavenworth, KS: Combat Studies Institute Press, 2010),
stability and security of Afghanistan,” June 1, 2021, p. 12. p. 86. At first, no new funding was allocated; instead, the
103 According to Afghanistan’s Vice President Amrullah Saleh money that had already been appropriated for humanitarian
and National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib, large programming under the Taliban was reprogrammed for both
numbers of released prisoners have returned to the bat- humanitarian and development purposes to support the new
tlefield. Amrullah Saleh, statement on Twitter, February 7, government. Ambassador James Dobbins, SIGAR interview,
2021; DOD, Lead Inspector General, “Operation Freedom’s January 11, 2016.
Sentinel: Report to the United States Congress, October 118 World Bank, “Transitional Support Strategy: Afghanistan,”
1, 2020–December 31, 2020,” p. v; Phillip Walter Wellman, March 12, 2002, pp. 3, 4, 6, 7.
“Taliban prisoners released under peace deal arrested after 119 Donald P. Wright, James R. Bird, Steven E. Clay, Peter
rejoining fight, official says,” Stars and Stripes, January Connors, Scott Farquhar, Lynne Garcia, and Dennis Van
25, 2021; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Wey, A Different Kind of War: The United States Army
Congress, January 30, 2021, pp. 84–85; Mujib Mashal, in Operation Enduring Freedom (Fort Leavenworth, KS:
“Taliban and U.S. Strike Deal to Withdraw American Troops Combat Studies Institute Press, 2010), pp. 230–231; SIGAR,
from Afghanistan,” New York Times, February 29, 2020; Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and Security
Tolo News, “Abdullah Calls on Taliban to Resume Talks,” Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan,
February 21, 2021; State, “Agreement for Bringing Peace SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. xi, 28.
to Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan 120 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
which is not recognized by the United States as a state and Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
is known as the Taliban and the United States of America,” Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 16.
February 29, 2020; BBC, “Taliban peace talks: What to ex- 121 U.S. military official, SIGAR interview, October 28, 2016.
pect from the new round?” September 7, 2020. 122 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
104 Nader Nadery, as quoted in Dexter Filkins, “Last Exit from Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
Afghanistan,” New Yorker, March 1, 2021. Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 28.
105 White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “Remarks by 123 U.S. military official, SIGAR interview, October 28, 2016.
President Biden on the Way Forward in Afghanistan,” April 124 Ambassador James Dobbins, SIGAR interview, January 11,
14, 2021. 2016.
106 Tyler Pager, “Biden to tell Americans ‘we cannot continue 125 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
the cycle’ in Afghanistan,” Washington Post, April 14, 2021. Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
107 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 146; inter-
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 195–196. national development professional, SIGAR interview, April
108 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 2019.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 203–204. 126 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
109 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September 18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. 29–30, 34.
2016, p. 83. 127 Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Little America: The War Within the
110 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and War for Afghanistan (New York, NY: Vintage Books, 2012),
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in p. 99; Amy Waldman, “Afghanistan Opens a Rebuilt Road
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 187. to Unite North and South,” New York Times, December 16,
111 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security 2003.
Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL, 128 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic
June 2019, p. 137. Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan,
112 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: SIGAR-18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 30; U.S. Embassy Kabul,
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- “Reprogramming USAID Funds for Provincial Roads,” Kabul
18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 185. 001575 cable, May 29, 2004.

129 U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Making Reconstruction 142 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Work in Afghanistan,” Andrew Natsios Archive, Georgetown Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
University Library, October 2002. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 108.
130 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 143 U.S. Congressional Research Service, “Wartime Contracting
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 48, 53. in Afghanistan: Analysis and Issues for Congress,” R42084,
131 USAID/Afghanistan, “Provincial Reconstruction Teams November 14, 2011, p. 5.
in Afghanistan: an Interagency Assessment,” June 2006, 144 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S.
p. 8. U.S. Provincial Reconstruction Teams were 50- to Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR 18-52-LL, June 2018,
100-person interagency teams composed of a security force, p. 44.
medical and logistics components, a civil affairs team, com- 145 James Dobbins, Michele A. Poole, Austin Long, Benjamin
mand and control elements, and representatives from State, Runkle, After the War: Nation-Building from FDR to
USAID, and sometimes the U.S. Department of Agriculture. George W. Bush (Washington, DC: RAND Corporation, 2008),
The mission of these joint civilian-military interagency teams p. xix.
was to extend and legitimize the central government’s pres- 146 John D Negroponte, “Threats, Challenges, and Opportunities
ence in the provinces by improving security and facilitating for the United States: Annual Threat Assessment to the
reconstruction and development. SIGAR, Stabilization: Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,” Office of the
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- Director of National Intelligence, February 2, 2006, p. 10;
18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 12. SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
132 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
October 30, 2014, pp. 226–227; SIGAR, Private Sector 18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. 15, 40. According to UN estimates,
Development and Economic Growth: Lessons from the U.S. poppy production reached a record high in 2007. SIGAR,
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-38-LL, April 2018, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
p. 33. Afghanistan, SIGAR 18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 31.
133 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. 147 Douglas Lute, SIGAR interview, February 20, 2015.
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September 148 Jeffrey Grieco, USAID assistant administrator for legislative
2016, p. 51. and public affairs, email to USAID colleagues, “Wash Post
134 Robert Lamb and Kathryn Mixon, “Rethinking Absorptive Investigative Story by Ottoway and Stephens,” Andrew
Capacity: A New Framework Applied to Afghanistan’s Natsios Archives, Georgetown University Library, November
Police Training Program, June 2013, p. ix; Organization 3, 2005; Joe Stevens and David Ottaway, “A Rebuilding
for Economic Cooperation and Development, “States of Plan Full of Cracks,” Washington Post, November 20, 2005;
Fragility 2015: Highlights,” revised edition, electronic p. 13; Andrew Natsios, “The Clash of the Counter-Bureaucracy and
Fredrick Galtung and Martin Tisne, “A New Approach to Development,” Center for Global Development, July 2010,
Postwar Reconstruction,” Journal of Democracy, vol. 9. no. 4 pp. 17–18.
(2009), pp. 96–98. 149 One event that prompted this new focus on subnational
135 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. governance was the 2007 formation of the United Front,
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September which backed Abdullah Abdullah in the 2009 presidential
2016, p. 68. By 2004, the Afghan government estimated election. The group, many of whose leaders had been
that two-thirds of customs revenue failed to reach Kabul, members of the Northern Alliance, sought to amend the
either due to corruption or insufficient transport oversight. constitution and decentralize governance in the country.
U.S. Embassy Kabul, “GOA Summons Governors to Kabul, Amin Tarzi, “Afghanistan: What Unites the New ‘United
Asks Cooperation on Revenue and Budget,” Kabul 002574 Front’?” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, May 10, 2007.
cable, August 11, 2004, p. 3; Transparency International, U.S. Embassy Kabul, “Refining our Governance Orientation
“Corruption: Lessons from the International Mission in in Light of Transition: Strengthening Afghan Capacity to
Afghanistan,” February 2015, p. 25. Spend Resources Effectively and Accountably Through
136 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Existing Systems and Institutions, at Three Key Levels of
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 64–65. Government,” Kabul 004017 cable, December 16, 2010.
137 By 2009, however, many senior U.S. officials saw systemic 150 USAID, “Timeline of USAID-US Military Cooperation in
corruption as a strategic threat to the mission. SIGAR, Afghanistan: 2001-2014,” undated.
Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 151 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September 2016, p. i. Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 14, 15, 86, 152,
138 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, 165.
January 31, 2021, pp. 26–27. 152 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
139 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 164; SIGAR, Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. xi.
Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and Security 153 GAO, “Afghanistan Security: Further Congressional Action
Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, May Be Needed to Ensure Completion of a Detailed Plan
SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 8. to Develop and Sustain Capable Afghan National Security
140 Douglas Lute, SIGAR interview, February 20, 2015; SIGAR, Forces,” GAO-08-661, June 2008, electronic p. 2.
Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, October 30, 154 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
2014, pp. 226–227. Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
141 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, pp. 44–45.
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting 155 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 75. Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
AUGUST 2021 | 107

Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, pp. 30, Assets That Were Unused or Abandoned, Were Not Used
37, 50. for Their Intended Purposes, Had Deteriorated, or Were
156 Andrew Wilder, “Cops or Robbers?: The Struggle to Reform Destroyed, SIGAR-21-20-IP, February 2021, electronic p. 2.
the Afghan National Police,” Afghanistan Research and 176 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
Evaluation Unit, July 2007, p. 55. Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. vi, vii–viii, 35, 40,
157 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. 60; senior USAID official, SIGAR interview, November 10,
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September 2016.
2016, p. 21. 177 Not even the provincial level did; that authority remains
158 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience centralized in Kabul. SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 34. the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May
159 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 2018, p. 72; Mohammad Qadam Shah, “Why Afghanistan is
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 35. Caught in a Budget Crisis, Again,” Diplomat, February 4,
160 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 2021, electronic pp. 3, 4.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 179–180. 178 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
161 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 165; William
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- Byrd and Shah Zaman Farahi, “Improving Afghanistan’s
18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. 15, 43. Public Finances in 2017–2019,” U.S. Institute of Peace, April
162 Donor funding had reached a similar peak a few years 2018, pp. 2–3; Mohammad Qadam Shah, “Why Afghanistan
before in 2007. SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons is Caught in a Budget Crisis, Again,” Diplomat, February 4,
from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, 2021, electronic pp. 3, 4.
September 2016, p. 51. 179 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
163 David Marsden, SIGAR interview, December 3, 2015. Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
164 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. xii.
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September 180 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
2016, p. 6. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 48.
165 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. 181 Walter Pincus, “Senators Question Military Spending on
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September Afghan Infrastructure,” Washington Post, July 5, 2011;
2016, p. 4. former NATO official, SIGAR interview, February 24, 2015;
166 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience SIGAR, Afghanistan’s Energy Sector: USAID and DOD Did
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 50, 57. Not Consistently Collect and Report Performance Data
167 Ben Arnoldy, “Afghanistan War: USAID Spends Too Much, on Projects Related to Kajaki Dam, and Concerns Exist
Too Fast,” Christian Science Monitor, July 28, 2010. Regarding Sustainability, SIGAR-19-37-AR, May 2019,
168 SIGAR, G222 Aircraft Program in Afghanistan: About p. 54; John Sopko, letter to U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan
$549 Million Spent on Faulty Aircraft and No One Held James Cunningham, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
Accountable, SIGAR-21-21-SP, February 2021. (Acting), Michael Lumpkin, Commander U.S. Forces –
169 Senior USAID official, SIGAR interview, November 10, Afghanistan and Commander International Security Force,
2016; SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: General Joseph Dunford, and USAID Mission Director for
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting Afghanistan William Hammick, Afghanistan, July 30, 2014,
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 146; electronic p. 9.
SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 182 SIGAR found that USAID and USFOR-A prepared a sustain-
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 57; Paul ment plan for these projects, as required. But it was useless,
Fishstein and Andrew Wilder, “Winning Hearts and Minds? because it did not include any analysis of the costs of sus-
Examining the Relationship between Aid and Security taining the generators, also known as the Kandahar Bridging
in Afghanistan,” Tufts University, Feinstein International Solution. John F. Sopko, “Lessons Learned from Oversight
Center, January 2012, p. 5. of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Efforts
170 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. in Afghanistan,” testimony before the Subcommittee on
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September National Security, Committee on Government Oversight and
2016, p. 9. Reform, U.S. House of Representatives, April 2014, pp. 6–7.
171 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience In fact, the project, which disproportionately benefitted priv-
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 45–46, 58, ileged residents of Kandahar Province, was never expected
67, 75–76. to be self-sustaining. A former NATO official told SIGAR,
172 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. “The [counterinsurgency] effect for the poor was negligi-
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September ble and the inequality . . . obvious.” Former NATO official,
2016, p. 10; SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. SIGAR interview, February 24, 2015.
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, 183 SIGAR, Fiscal Year 2011: Afghanistan Infrastructure
pp. 64–65. Fund Projects are Behind Schedule and Lack Adequate
173 Senior NATO official, SIGAR interview, February 18, 2015; Sustainment Plans, SIGAR-Audit-12-12, July 30, 2012, p. 6;
Karl W. Eikenberry, “The Limits of Counterinsurgency SIGAR, Afghanistan’s Energy Sector: USAID and DOD Did
Doctrine in Afghanistan,” Foreign Affairs, vol. 92, no. 5 Not Consistently Collect and Report Performance Data
(September/October 2013), p. 61. on Projects Related to Kajaki Dam, and Concerns Exist
174 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Regarding Sustainability, SIGAR-19-37-AR, May 2019, p. 17;
Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 48, 63–65, 72. Jennifer Glasse, “Dreams Melt as Kandahar’s Electricity
175 SIGAR, U.S.-Funded Capital Assets in Afghanistan: The Falters,” Al Jazeera America, June 23, 2015.
U.S. Government Spent More Than $2.4 Billion on Capital

184 SIGAR, Afghan Infrastructure Fund: Agencies Have 204 Mujib Mashal and Eric Schmitt, “White House Orders Direct
Not Assessed Whether Six Projects that Began in Taliban Talks to Jump-Start Afghan Negotiations,” New York
Fiscal Year 2011, Worth About $400 Million, Achieved Times, July 15, 2018; Faridullah Husseinkhail, “Khalilzad to
Counterinsurgency Objectives and Can Be Sustained, Facilitate Peace Process Between Govt, Taliban,” Tolo News,
SIGAR-18-10-AR, October 2017, electronic p. 4. September 22, 2018.
185 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 205 State, “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 34, 66. between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not
186 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience recognized by the United States as a state and is known as
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 66. the Taliban and the United States of America,” February 29,
187 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 2020.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 66. 206 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
188 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience October 30, 2020, pp. 70–71.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 73–74. 207 SIGAR, 2021 High Risk List, SIGAR 21-22-HRL, March 10,
189 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 2021, p. 16.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 182, 215. 208 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
190 Brookings Institution, “Afghanistan Index: Tracking October 30, 2014, pp. 226–227; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to
variables of reconstruction and security in post-9/11 the United States Congress, January 30, 2021, pp. 172–173.
Afghanistan,” August 2020, p. 5; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to 209 Missy Ryan and Karen DeYoung, “Biden Will Withdraw All
the United States Congress, October 30, 2014, pp. 226–227; U.S. Forces from Afghanistan by Sept. 11, 2021,” Washington
SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, Post, April 13, 2021; White House, “Appendix: Budget of the
January 30, 2021, pp. 172–173. U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2022,” p. 261.
191 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, 210 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
October 30, 2014, pp. 226–227; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
the United States Congress, January 30, 2021, pp. 172–173. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 108; General
192 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: John Allen, “Interview by Michael Miklaucic,” PRISM, vol. 7,
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- no. 4 (2018), electronic p. 3.
18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 7. 211 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
193 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: July 30, 2021, p. 29.
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- 212 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. 7–8, 14. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
194 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 191.
Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 63–64. 213 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S.
195 SIGAR, Elections: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018,
Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-16-LL, February 2021, p. 97. p. 176.
196 Kate Clark, “The Cost of Support to Afghanistan: New 214 SIGAR, Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: Lessons from
Special Report Considers the Causes of Inequality, Poverty the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL,
and a Failing Democracy,” Afghanistan Analysts Network, September 2019, p. 106.
May 29, 2020, electronic p. 2; John F. Sopko, “Remarks on 215 SIGAR, U.S.-Funded Capital Assets: The U.S. Government
the 2021 SIGAR High Risk List,” Center for Strategic and Spent More Than $2.4 Billion on Capitol Assets that were
International Studies, Washington, DC, March 10, 2021, p. 3. Unused or Abandoned, Were Not Used for their Intended
197 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Purposes, had Deteriorated, or Were Destroyed, SIGAR-21-
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 67, 75–76; 20-IP, February 2021, electronic p. 2.
U.S. Embassy Kabul, “Refining our Governance Orientation 216 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense
in Light of Transition: Strengthening Afghan Capacity to and Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Spend Resources Effectively and Accountably Through in Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 144;
Existing Systems and Institutions, at Three Key Levels of SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
Government,” Kabul 004017 cable, December 16, 2010. January 30, 2016, p. 116; Checchi & Company Consulting
198 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Inc., “Meta-Evaluation: Meta-Analysis of Final Evaluations
Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 75–76; former of USAID/Afghanistan Projects 2010-2015,” prepared under
NATO official, SIGAR interview, February 24, 2015. contract to USAID, January 2016, p. 33.
199 John F. Sopko, “Oversight in Conflict: Detecting Fraud in 217 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Challenging Environments,” Association of Certified Fraud in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 96.
Examiners, Middle East Conference, Abu Dhabi, United 218 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Arab Emirates, February 24–25, 2019, p. 8. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 67; U.S.
200 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and Congressional Research Service, “Afghanistan: U.S. Foreign
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Assistance,” R40699, August 21, 2012, p. 8.
Afghanistan, SIGAR 17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 107. 219 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
201 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and January 30, 2018, p. 60.
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 220 Consolidated Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2014,
Afghanistan, SIGAR 17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 109. Pub. L. No. 113-76, § 7044 (2014); Department of State,
202 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations
October 30, 2015, p. 65. Act for Fiscal Year 2017, 115th Congress, S. 2583, § 7044
203 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, (2018); Department of State, Foreign Operations, and
October 30, 2017, p. 147. Related Programs Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2020,
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116th Congress, S. 1780, § 7034 (2019); Department of State, was 291.9 percent for the Central African Republic, and 99.1
Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations percent for the Federal States of Micronesia. World Bank,
Act for Fiscal Year 2016, S. 3117, 114th Congress § 7044 (2016). “Net ODA received (% of central government expense),”
221 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: accessed May 27, 2021.
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting 231 SIGAR found that the operating costs of the new Gardez
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 214. hospital were 180 to 540 percent those of the one it was
222 State also appears to believe its recent approach for peace meant to replace; the operating costs of the new Khair Khot
process-related conditionality has been successful, as hospital were approximately six times that of the old one.
the agency reported that the pressure created by its “new SIGAR, Health Services in Afghanistan: Two New USAID-
conditions-based strategy” brought the two parties to the Funded Hospitals May Not Be Sustainable and Existing
negotiating table. SIGAR, 2021 High Risk List, SIGAR 21- Hospitals Are Facing Shortages in Some Key Medical
22-HRL, March 10, 2021, p. 23. Positions, SIGAR 13-9-AR, April 2013, pp. 3, 5.
223 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, 232 SIGAR, Health Services in Afghanistan: Two New USAID-
October 30, 2019, pp. 116–117. The United States has em- Funded Hospitals May Not Be Sustainable and Existing
ployed conditionality in numerous ways. Two of the most Hospitals Are Facing Shortages in Some Key Medical
prominent of these have been a series of multilateral mutual Positions, SIGAR 13-9-AR, April 2013, pp. 3, 5.
accountability frameworks and the U.S. military’s “commit- 233 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
ment letters,” which established funding penalties and incen- July 30, 2014, p. 179; SIGAR, Afghanistan’s Road
tives designed to drive behavior change in the ministries of Infrastructure: Sustainment Challenges and Lack of
defense and interior. SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United Repairs Put U.S. Investment at Risk, SIGAR 17-11-AR,
States Congress, October 30, 2019, pp. 116–117; SIGAR, October 2016, pp. 13, 15.
Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, January 30, 234 SIGAR, Afghanistan Infrastructure Fund: Agencies
2016, pp. 108–109; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United Have Not Assessed Whether Six Projects That Began in
States Congress, October 30, 2018, p. 107. Fiscal Year 2011, Worth about $400 Million, Achieved
224 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, Counterinsurgency Objectives and Can be Sustained,
April, 30, 20120, pp. 100–102. SIGAR 18-10-AR, October 2017, p. 16.
225 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. 235 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR 16-58-LL, September in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 231.
2016, pp. 53–54. Desha Girod, “How to Win Friends 236 Gulla Jan Ahmadzai, SIGAR interview, February 15, 2017.
and Influence Development: Optimising U.S. Foreign 237 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
Assistance,” Survival, vol. 61, no. 6, 2019, p. 104. As noted Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
in SIGAR’s April 2021 quarterly report, Robert Komer 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. xv.
described a similar dynamic between the United States 238 SIGAR, Kabul Carpet Export Center: Progress Made
and the government of the Republic of Vietnam in the Toward Self Sufficiency but Critical Sales, Revenue and
1970s: “However much policy may call for helping those Job Creation Targets Have Not Been Met, SIGAR 20-50-SP,
who help themselves or tying aid to performance, such August 2020, pp. 7, 11.
policies tend to become eroded in execution by the U.S. 239 SIGAR, Afghanistan’s Health Care Sector: USAID’s Use of
agencies concerned. This certainly occurred frequently in Unreliable Data Presents Challenges in Assessing Program
Vietnam. . . . We became their prisoners rather than they Performance and the Extent of Progress, SIGAR 17-22-AR,
ours—the classic trap into which great powers have so often January 20, 2017, pp. 5, 9–10, 15; SIGAR, Afghan National
fallen in their relationships with weak allies. The [govern- Army: DOD Did Not Conduct Required Oversight or Assess
ment of South Vietnam] used its weakness as leverage on us the Performance and Sustainability of the $174 Million
far more effectively than we used our strength to lever it.” ScanEagle Unmanned Aerial System Program, SIGAR
Robert Komer, Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional 20-44-AR, July 2020, p. 17; SIGAR, Afghanistan National
Constraints on U.S.-GVN Performance in Vietnam (Santa Defense and Security Forces: DOD Lacks Performance
Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1972), p. 35; SIGAR, Data to Assess, Monitor, and Evaluate Advisors Assigned
Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, April, 30, to the Ministries of Defense and Interior, SIGAR 19-03-AR,
2012, pp. 99–100. October 2018, p. 8; SIGAR, Land Reform in Afghanistan:
226 Likewise, CSTC-A ceased issuing commitment letters, start- Full Impact and Sustainability of $41.2 Million USAID
ing in FY20, after failing to enforce them in FY19. SIGAR, Program Is Unknown, SIGAR 17-27-AR, February 2017,
Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, January 30, p. 6; SIGAR, Promoting Gender Equity in National
2020, pp. 107; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Priority Programs (Promote): USAID Needs to Assess
Congress, April 30, 2021, p. 101. This $216 Million Program’s Achievements and the Afghan
227 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, Government’s Ability to Sustain Them, SIGAR 18-69-
April, 30, 2021, p. 100. AR, September 2018, pp. 8, 9, 25; SIGAR, Stabilization:
228 SIGAR, 2021 High Risk List, SIGAR 21-22-HRL, March 10, Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR
2021, p. 25. 18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 136; SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the
229 SIGAR, 2021 High Risk List, SIGAR 21-22-HRL, March 10, Wrong Thing Perfectly: Monitoring and Evaluation of
2021, p. 40. Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-
230 According to the World Bank, a number of countries are LL, July 2021, pp. 50, 68, 165, 196.
more dependent on overseas development assistance than 240 Stabilization operations planner for RC-East, SIGAR inter-
Afghanistan, as measured by net official development assis- view, July 11, 2016; SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the
tance as a percentage of central government expenses. The U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR 18-48-LL, May 2018,
most recent value for Afghanistan was 51.5 percent, while it pp. 62–63.

241 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 256 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
in Afghanistan, SIGAR 18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 180. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 73–74.
242 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 257 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security
in Afghanistan, SIGAR 18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 91–94; Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL,
former senior USFOR-A official, SIGAR interview, June June 2019, p. 83.
30, 2016; SIGAR, Increased Visibility, Monitoring, and 258 SIGAR, G222 Aircraft Program in Afghanistan: About
Planning Needed for Commander’s Emergency Response $549 Million Spent on Faulty Aircraft and No One Held
Program, SIGAR 18-45-AR, electronic p. 3. Accountable, SIGAR 21-21-SP, February 2021, pp. 4, 8, 10, 13.
243 Former senior USAID official, SIGAR interview, August 15, 259 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
2016. Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
244 Civil affairs officer, SIGAR interview, June 27, 2016. Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 189.
245 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 260 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 86. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
246 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 189.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 137, 261 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
167; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
Congress, July 30, 2014, p. 179; SIGAR, Afghanistan’s 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 187.
Road Infrastructure: Sustainment Challenges and Lack 262 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S.
of Repairs Put U.S. Investment at Risk, SIGAR 17-11-AR, Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018,
October 2016, p. 13; GAO, “Afghanistan Security: Further p. 184.
Congressional Action may be Needed to Ensure Completion 263 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S.
of a Detailed Plan to Develop and Sustain Capable Afghan Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018,
National Security Forces,” GAO-08-661, June 2008, electronic p. 186.
p. 2; SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: 264 SIGAR, Elections: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-16-LL, February 2021, p. 172.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 82, 115-116. 265 SIGAR, Support for Gender Equality: Lessons from the U.S.
247 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-18-LL, February 2021,
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 86. p. 162.
248 Andy Tamas, SIGAR interview, July 13, 2016; SIGAR, 266 John F. Troxwell, “A Glass Half Full,” Strategic Studies
Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Institute, July 2010, p. 73; former senior DOD official, SIGAR
Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 86, 226; Adam interview, September 14, 2015.
Smith International, “Diagnostic of the District Delivery 267 White House, “PDD/NSC 56 Managing Complex Contingency
Program,” November 3, 2010, p. 9. Operations,” May 1997.
249 SIGAR, USAID’s Power Transmission Expansion and 268 Lt. Col. Bob Chadwick, “Civil Affairs Campaign Planning for
Connectivity Project: The Project is Behind Schedule, and Complex Contingency Operations: Getting It Right,” U.S.
Questions Remain about the Afghan Government’s Ability Army War College, April 1999, pp. 9, 11, 14, 15, 24; White
to Use and Maintain the New Power Infrastructure, SIGAR House, “PDD/NSC 56 Managing Complex Contingency
19-57-AR, September 2019, pp. 22–23. Operations,” May 1997.
250 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 269 Lt. Col. James Bartran, “PDD-56-1: Synchronizing Effects;
Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 86. A technical Beyond the POL/MIL Plan,” U.S. Army War College, April
advisor who had been embedded in the Ministry of Finance 2000, p. 6; General Hugh Shelton, “Inside the War Room:
for five years told District Delivery Program evaluators that The Final Days,” The History Reader, October 2010; former
she was unaware of that the system for pushing money senior DOD official, SIGAR interview, September 14, 2015.
from the center to the districts was broken until she was 270 Thomas Szayna, Derek Eaton, James E. Barnett, Brooke
asked to look into financial reporting delays on the District Stearns Lawson, Terrence Kelly, and Zachary Haldeman,
Delivery Program. Checchi and Company Consulting, Inc., “Integrating Civilian Agencies in Stability Operations,”
“Performance Evaluation: District Delivery Program (DDP),” RAND Corporation, 2009, p. XIII; SIGAR, Stabilization:
April 9, 2012, p. 15. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
251 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 54.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 165. 271 Kenneth Dahl, “New Security for New Threats: The Case for
252 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Reforming the Interagency Process,” Brookings Institution,
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 165. July 2007, p. 14; former senior DOD official, SIGAR inter-
253 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience view, August 18, 2015; former senior State official, SIGAR
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 72; SIGAR, interview, July 10, 2015.
Weaknesses in Reporting and Coordination of Development 272 Kenneth Dahl, “New Security for New Threats: The Case for
Assistance and Lack of Provincial Capacity Pose Risks Reforming the Interagency Process,” Brookings Institution,
to U.S. Strategy in Nangarhar Province, SIGAR-11-1-AR, July 2007, p. 15.
October 26, 2010, pp. ii, 2; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to 273 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security
the United States Congress, October 30, 2019, pp. 118–119. Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-
254 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience LL, June 2019, p. 8; SIGAR, Support for Gender Equality:
255 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 21-18-LL, February 2021, p. 45.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 73. 274 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 50.
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275 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security 296 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL, Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
June 2019, p. 10. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 30, 52.
276 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, 297 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
January 2015, p. 11; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
States Congress, July 2019, p. 110. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 72, 73;
277 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S.
and Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 30; 2016, p. 65.
SIGAR, Afghan National Police: More than $300 Million 298 GAO, “Operational Contract Support: Management and
in Annual, U.S.-funded Salary Payments Is Based on Oversight Improvements Needed in Afghanistan,” GAO-12-
Partially Verified or Reconciled Data, SIGAR-15-26-AR, 290, March 2012, p. 18.
January 2015, p. 17. 299 GAO, “Operational Contract Support: Management and
278 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Oversight Improvements Needed in Afghanistan,” GAO-12-
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 50. 290, March 2012, p. 24.
279 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 300 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 50, 52. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September
280 Peter Erickson, Muhsin Hassan, Leigh Ann Killian, Gordon 2016, p. 32; USAID, “Timeline of USAID-U.S. Military
LaForge, Sarah Levit-Shore, Lauren Rhode, and Kenneth Cooperation in Afghanistan, 2002–2014,” nd.
Sholes, “Lessons from the U.S. Civilian Surge in Afghanistan, 301 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
2009–2014,” Woodrow Wilson School, January 2016, p. 7. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 47.
282 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 169; SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 57. from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL,
283 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security May 2018, p. 53.
Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL, 303 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
June 2019, pp. 46–47, 84; SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, 18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. 148–149, 169.
May 2018, p. 51. 304 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
284 John Sopko, “Remarks at the Center for Strategic and Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
International Studies,” September 25, 2017. 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 169; SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the
285 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security Wrong Thing Perfectly: Monitoring and Evaluation of
Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL, Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-
June 2019, p. 12. LL, July 2021, p. 13.
286 John Sopko, “Remarks at the Center for Strategic and 305 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
International Studies,” September 25, 2017. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 199–200.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 105. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 200–201.
288 Senior civil affairs officer, SIGAR interview, July 12, 2016. 307 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
289 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 201–203.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 116–117. 308 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S.
290 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 51. 2016, p. 86.
291 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and 309 SIGAR, Support for Gender Equality: Lessons from the U.S.
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-18-LL, February 2021,
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, pp. 44, 160. p. 162.
292 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: 310 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 170. 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 190.
293 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security 311 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL, Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
June 2019, p. 86; SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 184.
Perfectly: Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction 312 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security
Contracting in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 51. Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL,
294 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: June 2019, p. 36.
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting 313 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 179; Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
Congressional Research Service, “Department of Defense Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 189.
Contractors in Afghanistan and Iraq: Background and 314 SIGAR, Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: Lessons from
Analysis,” R40764, May 2011, pp. 6–7, 9. the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL,
295 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security September 2019, p. 100.
Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL, 315 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
June 2019, p. 50. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 40.

316 SIGAR, Elections: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 344 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-16-LL, February 2021, p. 163. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
317 SIGAR, Elections: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 4.
Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-16-LL, February 2021, pp. 25, 17. 345 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
318 SIGAR, Elections: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-16-LL, February 2021, p. 26. 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. viii.
Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-16-LL, February 2021, pp. 32–33. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
320 SIGAR, Elections: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 16.
Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-16-LL, February 2021, p. xii. 347 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
321 SIGAR, Elections: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-16-LL, February 2021, p. 25. 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 170.
Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-16-LL, February 2021, p. 24. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
323 State, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, “U.S. Government 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 122.
Counterinsurgency Guide,” January 2009, p. 30. 349 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
324 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 166. 18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. 124–125.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 168, 172–173. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
326 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. 70–71.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 168, 172–173. 351 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 61. 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 20.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 61, 62. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
329 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. 18, 55.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 40. 353 Tolo News, “Updated: 30 Afghan Forces Killed in Taliban
330 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Attacks, Says Source,” April 22, 2020; Mohsin Amin, “The
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 89. Story Behind China’s Long-Stalled Mine in Afghanistan,”
331 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Diplomat, January 7, 2017.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 88. 354 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 62. 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 76.
334 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 170.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 174. 356 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 136. 18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. 113, 116.
336 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 357 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 16. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
337 Steve Coll, Directorate S: The C.I.A. and America’s Secret 18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. x, xiii, 97, 119.
Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan (New York, NY: Penguin 358 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
Press, 2018), p. 275. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
338 As SIGAR’s counternarcotics lessons learned report details, 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 118.
however, the evidence connecting the Taliban to the drug 359 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
trade is unclear. SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 81.
2018, p. 34; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States 360 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
Congress, July 30, 2021, p. 25. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
339 UNODC, “Afghanistan Opium Survey 2019: Socio-economic 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 170.
survey report: Drivers, causes and consequences of opium 361 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
poppy cultivation,” February 2021, p. 7; Central Intelligence Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
Agency, Crime and Narcotics Center, response to SIGAR 18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. xv, 161, 178.
data call, October 2015, March 2017, March 2018. 362 GAO, “Afghanistan Reconstruction: GAO Work since 2002
340 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Shows Systemic Internal Control Weakness that Increased
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 164. Risk of Waste, Fraud, and Abuse,” January 27, 2021, p. 7.
341 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 363 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 164. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
342 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 143.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 164. 364 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
343 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 164. Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 2; SIGAR,
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Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 383 SIGAR, Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: Lessons from
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September 2016, p. 77. the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL,
365 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and September 2019, p. 95.
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 384 SIGAR, Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: Lessons from
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 2; SIGAR, the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL,
Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. Experience September 2019, p. 43.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September 2016, p. 77. 385 SIGAR, Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: Lessons from
366 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL,
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in September 2019, p. 43.
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, pp. xii, 386 SIGAR, Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: Lessons from
32–33. the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL,
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 15. the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL,
368 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and September 2019, pp. 53, 64.
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 171. the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL,
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 389 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. xi. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 196–198.
370 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and 390 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 183.
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 40. 391 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
371 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 171.
Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL, 392 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
June 2019, p. 109. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 30, 32.
372 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and 393 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 30, 32.
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, pp. 42, 46; 394 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 188–189.
January 31, 2021, p. 62. 395 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
373 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 65; SIGAR,
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Private Sector Development and Economic Growth:
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, pp. 171–172. Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
374 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and 18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 164.
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 396 Joe Stephens and David Ottaway, “A Rebuilding Plan Full
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, pp. 58, 127, of Cracks,” Washington Post, November 20, 2005.
128–129. 397 Andrew Natsios, “The Clash of the Counter-Bureaucracy
375 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and and Development,” Center for Global Development, July
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 2010, p. 18; Jack Bell, “Assessment of the USAID Program in
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, pp. 63, 104. Afghanistan,” email to Mark Want, Andrew Natsios Archives,
376 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and Georgetown University Library, July 21, 2004; Joe Stephens
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in and David Ottaway, “A Rebuilding Plan Full of Cracks,”
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. i. Washington Post, November 20, 2005.
377 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 398 Joe Stephens and David Ottaway, “A Rebuilding Plan Full
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. x. of Cracks,” Washington Post, November 20, 2005.
378 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and 399 Joe Stephens and David Ottaway, “A Rebuilding Plan Full
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in of Cracks,” Washington Post, November 20, 2005.
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, pp. 128–129; 400 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S.
SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September
Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. x. 2016, p. 77; SIGAR, Private Sector Development and
379 SIGAR, Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: Lessons from Economic Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL, Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 167.
September 2019, p. 43; SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from 401 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S.
the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September
2018, p. x. 2016, pp. 19, 77; SIGAR, Private Sector Development and
380 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and Economic Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 167; SIGAR,
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 127. Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
381 SIGAR, Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: Lessons from Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 64.
the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL, 402 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S.
September 2019, p. 43. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September
382 SIGAR, Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: Lessons from 2016, pp. 19, 77.
the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL, 403 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
September 2019, p. 42. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 64.

404 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: 430 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 6. Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 176.
405 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: 431 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. 167, 175–176. Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, pp. 168,
406 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: 176–177.
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- 432 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
18-38-LL, April 2018, pp. 175–176. Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
407 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 168.
18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 167. Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
408 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 176.
18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 72. Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
409 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, pp. 168,
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- 176–177.
18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 72. 435 SIGAR, Support for Gender Equality: Lessons from the U.S.
410 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-18-LL, February 2021,
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- p. 4.
18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 73. 436 SIGAR, Support for Gender Equality: Lessons from the U.S.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 157. pp. 44–46.
412 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 437 SIGAR, Support for Gender Equality: Lessons from the U.S.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 157. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-18-LL, February 2021,
413 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience pp. 153–154.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 155, 157. 438 SIGAR, Support for Gender Equality: Lessons from the U.S.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 157. pp. 153–154.
415 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 439 SIGAR, Support for Gender Equality: Lessons from the U.S.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 157. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-18-LL, February 2021,
416 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience pp. 124, 125, 127, 153–154.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 155. 440 SIGAR, Support for Gender Equality: Lessons from the U.S.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 157. pp. 103, 124, 127, 153–154.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 157. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 157.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 157. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 199–200.
420 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 443 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 157. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September
421 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 2016, p. 83.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 157. 444 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S.
422 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 162. 2016, p. 84.
423 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 445 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 170. Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
424 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 184.
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September 446 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
2016, p. 12. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 182.
425 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 447 Put another way, it encompasses the processes used to
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 169. determine the performance and effectiveness of programs
426 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience and projects. SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 169. Perfectly: Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction
427 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. Contracting in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021,
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September electronic p. 1.
2016, p. 12; SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. 448 Paul Fishstein and Andrew Wilder, “Winning Hearts and
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, May 2018, Minds? Examining the Relationship between Aid and
p. 65. Security in Afghanistan,” Feinstein International Center,
428 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. Tufts University, January 2012, p. 6; senior evaluation advi-
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September sor, SIGAR interview, January 2019.
2016, p. 34. 449 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
429 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
July 30, 2021, p. 28. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. xi, 134, 147.
AUGUST 2021 | 115

These are all characteristics of volatile operating environ- 460 Senior USAID official, SIGAR interview, November 10, 2016.
ments where U.S. government agencies operate all over the 461 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
globe. USAID, “Planning and Monitoring Environmental Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
Compliance in Non-Permissive Environments,” n.d., slide. 5; in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 175.
Nathaniel Myers, “Hard Aid: Foreign Aid in the Pursuit 462 Gordon Adams and Shoon Murray, Mission Creep: The
of Short-Term Security and Political Goals,” Carnegie Militarization of U.S. Foreign Policy (Washington, DC:
Endowment for International Peace, 2015, pp. 11–12. Georgetown University Press, 2014), p. 4; Congressional
450 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Research Service, “Security Assistance and Cooperation:
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting Shared Responsibility of the Departments of State and
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, electronic Defense,” R44444, May 26, 2016, p. i; SIGAR, The Risk
pp. 3–4. of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Monitoring and
451 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan,
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 72, 97, 109; Ann Calvaresi
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. viii. Barr, USAID inspector general, “State Department and
452 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in USAID Management Challenges and Opportunities for the
Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 103, 164, 180. Next Generation,” testimony before the Senate Foreign
453 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Relations Subcommittee on State Department and USAID
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting Management, International Operations, and Bilateral
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, electronic International Development, December 8, 2016, p. 46.
pp. 3–4, pp. 109, 124, 134. For example, SIGAR’s lessons 463 SIGAR’s lessons learned report on M&E found, “Overall, the
learned report on counternarcotics found that USAID’s best way to think about State’s M&E system is as a rough an-
Kandahar Food Zone project was designed based on the alogue to USAID’s, though it is not quite as highly elaborat-
assumption that U.S.-funded improvements to the canal ed.” SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
system in the districts of Zharey and Panjwai, alongside Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
community commitments to reduce opium poppy culti- in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 47, 209;
vation, would lead to an increase in the amount of land State, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs staff,
allocated to legal crops. In reality, the rehabilitated irrigation SIGAR interview, February 26, 2019; Congressional Research
systems ended up contributing to an increase in poppy cul- Service, “U. S. Agency for International Development:
tivation. SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Background, Operations, and Issues,” R44117, July 21, 2015,
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 59.
pp. 117, 124. 464 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
454 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 112; SIGAR,
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, electronic p. 3; Funding Tables, accessed June 24, 2021.
SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 465 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 63–65, 136. Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
455 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 112.
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting 466 Commission on Wartime Contracting, “Transforming
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 4–5; Wartime Contracting: Controlling Costs, Reducing Risks,”
Steve Linick, U.S. State Department inspector general, Final Report to Congress, August 2011, p. 2.
“State Department and USAID Management Challenges 467 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
and Opportunities for the Next Generation,” testimony Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
before the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 179;
State Department and USAID Management, International Commission on Wartime Contracting, “Transforming
Operations, and Bilateral International Development, Wartime Contracting: Controlling Costs, Reducing Risks,”
December 8, 2006, p. 41; USAID, “Planning and final report to Congress, August 2011, p. 2.
Monitoring Environmental Compliance in Non-Permissive 468 USAID, “Lessons Learned: Monitoring and Evaluation in
Environments,” n.d., slide. 4; USAID, “Yemen Programming Complex, High-Threat Environments,” April 2010, p. 2;
Approach: 2017–2020,” April 15, 2018, p. 2; Ann Calvaresi USAID, “Office of Food for Peace: Policy and Guidance
Barr, USAID inspector general, “State Department and for Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting for Emergency
USAID Management Challenges and Opportunities for Food Security Activities,” November 2019, p. 28; USAID,
the Next Administration,” Senate Subcommittee on State Assessment, Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Contract,
Department and USAID Management, International March 13, 2019, p. 13; USAID Office of Inspector General,
Operations, and Bilateral International Development, “Audit of USAID/Pakistan’s Independent Monitoring and
Committee on Foreign Relations, December 8, 2016, p. 45. Evaluation Program,” Audit Report No. G-391-13-003-P,
456 USAID, “Transforming our Processes: Working in Non- October 28, 2013, p. 18.
Permissive Environments,” November 7, 2018, p. 1. 469 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
457 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 127–128;
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 133. SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
458 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
January 20, 2021, pp. 172–173. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 89.
459 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: 470 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. xvii. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 108, 109,

121, 172, 216; SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. 487 Senior USAID official in RC-South, SIGAR interview, August
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, 15, 2016.
p. 118. 488 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 8.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 16. 489 SIGAR, 2019 High Risk List, SIGAR-19-25-HRL, March
472 Hans Binnendijk and Patrick M. Cronin, eds., Civilian 28, 2019, p. 9; SIGAR, Reintegration of Ex-Combatants:
Surge: Key to Complex Operations (Washington, DC: Center Lessons Learned from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan,
for Technology and National Security Policy, National SIGAR-19-58-LL, September 2019, p. 50. For example,
Defense University Press 2009), p. 2. SIGAR’s lessons learned report on counternarcotics found
473 U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, “Evaluating that “a persistent shortcoming in U.S. alternative develop-
U.S. Foreign Assistance to Afghanistan: A Majority Staff ment efforts in Afghanistan was the failure to assess and
Report,” June 8, 2011, p. 16. understand the poppy economy, its impact on any rural
474 U.S. Commission on Wartime Contracting in Iraq and development program, and the effect of a given intervention
Afghanistan, “Transforming Wartime Contracting: on rural households that were dependent on poppy.” SIGAR,
Controlling Costs, Reducing Risks,” August 2011, p. 122. Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
475 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 23.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 104–105. 490 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
476 USAID, “Activity Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
Plan: Guidance Document,” November 2017, p. 5; in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 8, 50.
Headquarters Department of the Army, “FM 3-07: Stability 491 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Operations,” 2008, chapter 4, p. 13; SIGAR, The Risk in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 86–97.
of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Monitoring and 492 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan, Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
SIGAR‑21‑41‑LL, July 2021, pp. 8, 214. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 135.
477 USAID, “Evaluation: Learning from Experience,” October 493 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
2016, p. 3; SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing July 30, 2017, p. 182; SIGAR, Afghanistan’s Healthcare
Perfectly: Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Sector: USAID’s Use of Unreliable Data Presents Challenges
Contracting in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, in Assessing Program Performance and the Extent of
pp. i, 214, 217; Headquarters Department of the Army, Progress, January 2017, pp. ii, 6, 7.
“FM 3-07: Stability Operations,” 2008, chapter 4, p. 13. 494 New Humanitarian, “Afghan Health NGOs: A Mixed
478 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Blessing?,” October 12, 2009, pp. 1, 3, 4.
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting 495 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 9. Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
479 UK Stabilisation Unit, “Monitoring and Evaluation of Conflict in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 32; SIGAR,
and Stabilisation Interventions,” What Works Series, October Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
2015, p. 21; SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 127–128.
Perfectly: Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction 496 For example, the Kandahar Food Zone project, which was
Contracting in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 9, intended to reduce opium poppy cultivation in the prov-
98–99. ince, measured progress through 27 indicators, including
480 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: kilometers of irrigation canals and drainage ditches reha-
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting bilitated and the amount of land with increased high-value
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 5, 40, 99, crop production. However, it did not measure any change
104–105, 174. in the amount of land devoted to opium poppy cultivation,
481 USAID differentiates between learning and adapting. USAID, although a reduction was the project’s purpose. Although
“Country Development Strategy Learning Approach,” June better irrigation and cultivation of higher-value crops can
12, 2019. theoretically contribute to a reduction in opium-poppy culti-
482 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: vation, improved irrigation can also increase it. SIGAR, The
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Monitoring and
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 68, 117, 184, Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan,
200. SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 32.
483 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: 497 Andrew Natsios, “The Clash of the Counter-Bureaucracy and
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting Development,” Center for Global Development, July 2010,
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 107–108, revised July 13, 2010, electronic p. 1, pp. 4–5.
174. 498 Richard Blue, Cynthia Clapp-Wincek, and Holly Benner,
484 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: “Beyond Success Stories: Monitoring & Evaluation for
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting Foreign Assistance Results: Evaluator Views of Current
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. i, 34, 38, 131; Practice and Recommendations for Change,” May 2009,
Andrew Natsios, “The Clash of the Counter-Bureaucracy and p. 13.
Development,” Center for Global Development, July 2010, 499 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
revised July 13, 2010, pp. 18, 38. Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
485 Senior USAFOR-A official, SIGAR interview, June 30, 2016. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 7.
486 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience 500 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 100. Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 207–208.
AUGUST 2021 | 117

501 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 514 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons Learned from the U.S.
Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 146–147, 149 Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-5-2-LL, June 2018,
152; SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: p. 175.
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting 515 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 40, 98–99; Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 133; SIGAR, The
SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Monitoring and
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 29. Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan,
502 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 107–108.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 162–163. 516 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 64, 72, 107,
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 104–105. 109; State, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs staff,
504 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: SIGAR interview, February 26, 2019.
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting 517 Congressional Research Service, “U. S. Agency for
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 176. International Development: Background, Operations, and
505 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Issues,” R44117, July 21, 2015, p. 59; Andrew Natsios, “The
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting Clash of the Counter-Bureaucracy and Development,”
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. i, 71, 78, 99, Center for Global Development, July 2010, revised July
108; SIGAR, Afghanistan Infrastructure Fund: Agencies 13, 2010, electronic p. 1; Charles Michael Johnson Jr.,
Have Not Assessed Whether Six Projects that Began in “Afghanistan Development: USAID Continues to Face
Fiscal Year 2011, Worth about $400 Million, Achieved Challenges in Managing and Overseeing U.S. Development
Counterinsurgency Objectives and can be Sustained, Assistance Programs,” testimony before the Subcommittee
SIGAR-18-10-AR, October 2017, pp. i. on State, Foreign Relations, and Related Programs,
506 SIGAR, Afghanistan Infrastructure Fund: Agencies Committee on Appropriations, July 15, 2010, p. 2.
Have Not Assessed Whether Six Projects that Began in 518 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Fiscal Year 2011, Worth about $400 Million, Achieved Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
Counterinsurgency Objectives and can be Sustained, in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 107.
SIGAR-18-10-AR, October 2017, electronic p. 3. 519 State, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs staff,
507 SIGAR, Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces: SIGAR interview, February 26, 2019.
DOD Lacks Performance Data to Assess, Monitor, and 520 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Evaluate Advisors Assigned to the Ministries of Defense Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
and Interior, SIGAR 19-03-AR, October 2018, p. 9; SIGAR, in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 72.
The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Monitoring 521 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting in Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 112. in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 62, 64, 132.
508 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience Thoughtful assessments of the effectiveness of CERP spend-
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 100; SIGAR, ing came long after the program’s 2010 heyday in the form
Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: Lessons Learned from of reports like the 2017 ESOC study and a 2016 RAND study
the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, September 2019, commissioned by DOD. SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from
SIGAR-19-58-LL, p. 51; SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May
Wrong Thing Perfectly: Monitoring and Evaluation of 2018, p. 141; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States
Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41- Congress, January 30, 2021, p. 33.
LL, July 2021, p. 135. 522 Radha Iyengar, Jacob Shapiro, and Stephen Hegarty,
509 SIGAR, Support for Gender Equality: Lessons from the U.S. “Lessons Learned from Stabilization Initiatives in
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-18-LL, February 2021, Afghanistan: A Systematic Review of Existing Research,”
p. 108. RAND working paper, July 2017, pp. 6, 30, 31–35.
510 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in 523 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 133; SIGAR, The Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Monitoring and in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 24, 174.
Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan, 524 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 108. Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
511 ME&A, “Examination of Foreign Assistance Evaluation in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 174.
Efforts at the Department of State: A Combined 525 U.S. official, SIGAR interview, September 16, 2016.
Performance and Meta-Evaluation,” prepared under contract 526 MSP contractor, SIGAR interview, July 2019.
for U.S. Department of State, April 2018, p. vii. 527 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 47.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 95–96, 528 SIGAR, “Lessons Learned Program: Military Roundtable
132–133. Discussion: Summary of Key Points,” Wednesday, January
513 Evaluation contractor, SIGAR interview, December 14, 14, 2015. One particularly problematic example of this
2018; SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: broken feedback loop was the fact that was only after the
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting United States had spent years and billions of dollars on a
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 68. stabilization strategy focused on the district level did it begin
to learn the lesson that districts were incapable of taking

on the capabilities its programs were designed to build. 535 Karl W. Eikenberry, “The Limits of Counterinsurgency
Even after USAID recognized this, the agency’s stabilization Doctrine in Afghanistan:” Foreign Affairs, vol. 92, no. 5
programs struggled to implement the lesson by pivoting to a (September/October 2013), pp. 61, 67; SIGAR, Stabilization:
provincial-level focus. Although on paper the agency’s policy Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
changed in 2010, programs like the Stability in Key Areas pro- 18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 63–64; SIGAR, Corruption in
grams and the Community Cohesion Initiative still worked on Conflict: Lessons Learned from the U.S. Experience in
district-level governance years later. SIGAR, Stabilization: Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September 2016, pp. 4, 6, 13,
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- 15, 28.
18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 66, 70, 72–73, 217. 536 SIGAR, Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: Lessons Learned
529 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-58-LL,
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting September 2019, p. 50. For example, as reported in SIGAR’s
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 112, counternarcotics lessons learned report, the governor of
200–201; State, “18 FAM 301.4-2.b(1) Department of State Helmand Province, Sher Mohammad Ahkunzada, was ac-
Program and Project Design, Monitoring, and Evaluation,” cused of circumventing the areas selected by the Ministry of
April 2018; State, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs Interior for eradication using U.S. funding, instead targeting
staff, SIGAR interview, February 26, 2019. USAID sometimes the fields of his political opponents. A few years later, the
refers to the causal chain linking different programs under U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency and Counter Narcotics
the same strategy/portfolio as a results framework. USAID, Police of Afghanistan found more than 9 metric tons of opi-
“Technical Note: Developing Results Frameworks,” July um in his office. It may have been possible to fix this prob-
2013, pp. 2, 9. lem by making eradication more strategic, as the Afghan
530 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: government, the British government, and ISAF argued, by
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting targeting those who could most afford to lose their opium
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 40, 45. crop and in locations where other economic options were
SIGAR’s counternarcotics report gives an example of an available. However, at times State INL and other parts of the
internally contradictory theory of change within USAID’s U.S. government ignored this important nuance, believing it
alternative development portfolio. It was unclear whether was important to destroy as much of the crop as possible,
the programs in the portfolio even shared a common goal wherever it was located and regardless of the economic
of reducing poppy cultivation: “Between 2002 and 2017 the and political conditions. SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons
U.S. government allocated $1.46 billion for alternative de- Learned from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-
velopment programs. However, in practice these programs 18-5-2-LL, June 2018, pp. 5, 90, 105.
were not all designed to reduce economic dependence on 537 Senior evaluation advisor, SIGAR interview, January 2019.
opium poppy cultivation. Some projects were considered 538 Former USAID official, SIGAR interview, June 2019.
alternative development because they were being imple- 539 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
mented in poppy-growing areas, but the projects were not Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
necessarily geared toward counternarcotics goals. On the in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 146.
other hand, several alternative development programs 540 USAID, “U.S. Foreign Assistance for Afghanistan: Post
specifically tied assistance to reductions in opium poppy Performance Management Plan 2011–2015,” October 2, 2010,
cultivation; nevertheless, some of these programs did little p. 1.
to support farmers’ transition out of poppy cultivation.” 541 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons Learned from the U.S. Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, pp. 36, 146.
p. 23. 542 International development professional, SIGAR interview,
531 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: April 2019.
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting 543 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 36. Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
532 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 78; SIGAR,
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 68. Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 56–57, 146.
533 “A Review of Evaluative Work of German Development 544 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly:
Cooperation in Afghanistan,” German Institute for Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting
Development Evaluation, 2014, pp. vii–viii; Jan R. Böhnke, in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. 49.
Jan Koehler, and Christoph Zürcher, “Assessing the Impact 545 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
of Development Cooperation in North East Afghanistan, in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 62–63.
2007–2013: Final Report,” German Federal Ministry for 546 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
Economic Cooperation and Development, January 2015, in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 46.
accessed July 2, 2020. 547 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
534 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 57.
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 228; SIGAR, 548 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
USAID’s Measuring Impacts of Stabilization Initiatives: in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 56–57.
Program Generally Achieved its Objectives, but USAID’s 549 SIGAR, Corruption in Conflict: Lessons Learned from
Lack of Geospatial Data Policy and Standards Affected its the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL,
Implementation, SIGAR-17-10-AR, October 2016, electronic September 2016, p. 13; Paul Fishstein and Andrew Wilder,
p. 3. “Winning Hearts and Minds? Examining the Relationship
AUGUST 2021 | 119

between Aid and Security in Afghanistan,” Tufts University, 564 U.S. Army/Marine Corps, “Field Manual 3-24:
Feinstein International Center, January 2012, p. 5. Counterinsurgency,” 2007, p. xiv.
550 Civil affairs officer, SIGAR interview, June 27, 2016; former 565 Thom Shanker, “Gates Wants Weapons to Be Useful in
senior USFOR-A official, SIGAR interview, June 30, 2016. Current Conflicts,” New York Times, May 13, 2008.
551 There is evidence that smaller and less ambitious pro- 566 Watson Institute, “Economic Costs,” Brown University,
gramming is more likely to succeed. Radha Iyengar Plumb, January 2020, p. 1.
Jacob N. Shapiro, and Stephen Hegarty, Lessons Learned 567 The U.S. government has ongoing or recent reconstruction
from Stabilization Initiatives in Afghanistan, RAND programs in all of these countries. For example, USAID’s
Corporation, pp. 7, 29. Smaller programs could ensure a work in Yemen has included rebuilding key economic insti-
higher ratio of staff to dollars spent and facilitate better tutions and strengthening the education and health systems.
decision making. Former USAID official, SIGAR interview, USAID, “Yemen: Activities at a Glance,” September 2020.
January 2019. Likewise, in Somalia USAID is implementing a program to
552 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: expand access to justice, including in areas recently retaken
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting from al-Shabaab. USAID/Somalia, “Expanding Access
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. xvi. to Justice (EAJ),” February 2020, p. 2. According to data
553 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: provided by the Security Assistance Monitor, the United
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting States provided at least $248.6 million in security assistance
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. xvii. to Somalia to build the capacity of its armed forces from
554 SIGAR, Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and 2006 to 2018. This effort has suffered shortcomings similar
Security Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in to efforts in Afghanistan: “There has been an overemphasis
Afghanistan, SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 188. on building the tactical capability of local security forces
555 SIGAR, Divided Responsibility: Lessons from U.S. Security at the expense of the political and institutional reforms
Sector Assistance Efforts in Afghanistan, SIGAR-19-39-LL, required for long-term conflict resolution, as well as an
June 2019, p. 110. inattention to wider strategy.” Rubrick Biegon and Tom
556 SIGAR, Private Sector Development and Economic Growth: Watts, “Security Cooperation as Remote Warfare: The
Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan, SIGAR- U.S. in the Horn of Africa,” excerpt from Remote Warfare:
18-38-LL, April 2018, p. 190. Interdisciplinary Perspectives, Alasdair McKay, Abigail
557 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Watson, and Megan Karlshøj-Pedersen, eds. (Bristol, UK:
Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, p. 199. E-International Relations Publishing, 2021), pp. 5–6. Finally,
558 SIGAR, Counternarcotics: Lessons from the U.S. Experience as of August 2020, U.S. and European security assistance
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-52-LL, June 2018, p. 186. to Mali constituted 75 percent of government revenue.
559 SIGAR, The Risk of Doing the Wrong Thing Perfectly: Ena Dion and Emily Cole, “How International Security
Monitoring and Evaluation of Reconstruction Contracting Support Contributed to Mali’s Coup,” U.S. Institute of Peace,
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-21-41-LL, July 2021, p. xxi. September 21, 2020. The U.S. also has ongoing programs to
560 Stephen Hadley, SIGAR interview, September 16, 2015. support the capacity building of the armed forces of neigh-
561 U.S. Army, “Field Manual 3-57: Civil Affairs Operations,” boring countries in the Sahel, including Niger, Mauritania,
April 17, 2019, p. A-2; Dan Grazier, “Preventing Train Burkina Faso, and Chad. Kamissa Camara, “It is Time to
and Defeat in Future Conflicts,” Project on Government Rethink U.S. Strategy in the Sahel,” U.S. Institute of Peace,
Oversight, April 8, 2020, p. 19; Joseph Piontek, “A Century April 15, 2021. At the same time, USAID’s Office of Transition
of Foreign Military Interaction: Security Implications of Initiatives has programs to build the capacity of a wide
Foreign Area Competency,” master’s thesis, U.S. Army variety of civilian government functions in these countries,
Command and General Staff College, 1999, p. 69; U.S. Army, including improving municipal water provision in Burkina
“Foreign Area Officer Program,” July 12, 2019. As Thomas Faso. USAID, “Drinkable Water for Vulnerable Communities
Ricks observed, “since World War II, civil affairs forces have in Northern and Eastern Burkina Faso,” March 22, 2021.
been repeatedly identified as a critical need, created, and Finally, U.S. reconstruction goals in Ukraine are myriad
employed—only to be cast aside.” Thomas Ricks, “Strategic and include reforming the country’s police and military,
Misfire: The Army’s Planned Reduction of Civil Affairs constitutional reforms and decentralization, and increasing
Forces,” Best Defense, Foreign Policy, May 12, 2016. the Ukrainian military’s interoperability with NATO forces.
562 Even the term counterinsurgency was abandoned because ForeignAssistance.gov, “Ukraine,” accessed June 27, 2021.
of its association with the U.S. failure in Vietnam, replaced 568 In 2002, the U.S. government spent only $337 million rebuild-
by “foreign internal defense” (FID). While both FID and ing Afghan institutions, a number that gradually grew more
counterinsurgency sought to help partner countries sup- than 4,000 percent by 2010. The U.S. campaign in Vietnam
press insurgencies, the difference was a matter of scale likewise began with a $10 million package of military assis-
and of whether counterinsurgency was one of the main tance to support French efforts in 1950. Four years later,
efforts or a small, supporting effort secondary to a main, the U.S. government had provided $2.6 billion in assistance.
conventional effort (as with FID). During this period, Special SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
Forces moved toward the latter. Lt. Cdr. Vincent King, January 30, 2021, Appendix B; Mike Gravel, The Pentagon
“Counterinsurgency: A Forgotten U.S. Strategy,” master’s Papers (Boston, MA: Beacon Press, 1971) vol. 1, chapter 4;
thesis, Joint Forces Staff College, March 3, 2014, pp. 4, 32. Congressional Research Service, “Costs of Major U.S. Wars,”
563 Hans Binnendijk and Patrick M. Cronin, eds., Civilian RS22926, June 29, 2010, p. 2.
Surge: Key to Complex Operations (Washington, DC: Center 569 State, DOD, and USAID, “Stabilization Assistance Review,”
for Technology and National Security Policy, National 2018, p. 1.
Defense University Press, 2009), p. v. 570 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 186.

571 Ryan Crocker, SIGAR interview, January 11, 2016.

572 Former senior DOD official, SIGAR interview, October 19,
2015.
573 SIGAR, Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience
in Afghanistan, SIGAR-18-48-LL, May 2018, pp. 201; SIGAR,
Reconstructing the Afghan National Defense and Security
Forces: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan,
SIGAR-17-62-LL, September 2017, p. 187; SIGAR, Corruption
in Conflict: Lessons Learned from the U.S. Experience in
Afghanistan, SIGAR-16-58-LL, September 2016, p. 84.
574 James Dobbins, SIGAR interview, January 11, 2016.
575 For example, before it closed in 2013, the Special Inspector
General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) proposed cre-
ating a U.S. Office of Contingency Operations (USOCO)
that would report to the National Security Council. SIGIR
argued that USOCO would ensure future stabilization and
reconstruction efforts were civilian-led and would move
planning and managing such operations from an additional
duty at multiple agencies to the primary duty of one office.
The proposal called for 250 personnel, at an annual cost of
$25 million, during periods between large-scale stabilization
and reconstruction efforts, which SIGIR assessed would
be recouped by the waste USOCO averted. Ambassador
Ryan Crocker also endorsed the idea, saying that creating
a “lean institution dedicated to planning, preparing, and
executing future [missions]” is the “surest path to correct
the failures of the U.S. stabilization and reconstruction
operations over the past three decades.” Similarly, Guy C.
Swan III, retired U.S. Army lieutenant general and former
chief of staff for Multi-National Force–Iraq, said USOCO
would be a “giant step forward.” Other prominent officials
who supported the concept include former National Security
Advisor Brent Scowcroft, Senator John McCain, former
Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) Dov Zakheim,
and Ambassador John Herbst, who led a similar effort at
the State Department. In addition, bipartisan bills were
introduced in the House of Representatives in both 2011
and 2013 that would have created USOCO. Ambassador
John Herbst, testimony before the House Subcommittee on
the Middle East and North Africa, hearing on “Learning from
Iraq: A Final Report from the Special Investigator General
for Iraq Reconstruction,” July 9, 2013; SIGIR, “Learning
from Iraq: A Final Report from the Special Investigator
General for Iraq Reconstruction,” March 2013, pp. 122, 126,
128; James Stephenson, “Stabilization and Reconstruction
in Conflict and Post-Conflict in 9/11,” in National Security
Reform 2010: A Mid-Term Assessment, ed. Joseph Cerami,
Robert Dorff, and Matthew Harber, (Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army
War College 2011), p. 148; Steve Stockman, “Getting Stability
and Reconstruction Ops Right. . . the Next Time,” Time,
July 26, 2013; Stuart Bowen, “Wanted: A Post-War Watchdog
for Nation Building,” Defense One, July 31, 2013; GovTrack,
“H.R. 3660 (112th): Contingency Operations Oversight and
Interagency Enhancement Act of 2011,” legislative summary.
AUGUST 2021 | 121

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This report is built on all of SIGAR’s work and everyone who supported the organization.
Across its 13 years in operation, SIGAR has employed 655 full time staff, 11 detailees
from other agencies, 62 contractors, and 12 Afghan staff. Their collective efforts
made it possible for SIGAR to keep American taxpayers informed about Afghanistan’s
reconstruction, and the prospects for improving such efforts in the future. This report
would not have been possible without them.
Research Team
Harrison Akins, Subject Matter Expert
Will Clifft, Student Trainee
Jordan Kane, Senior Research Analyst
Paul Kane, Senior Research Analyst
Matthew Rubin, Senior Research Analyst
Daniel Weggeland, Senior Subject Matter Expert
David H. Young, Supervisory Research Analyst/Project Lead
Lessons Learned Program Team

Nikolai Condee-Padunov, Program Manager
Tracy Content, Editor
Jason Davis, Visual Information Specialist
Vong Lim, Senior Visual Information Specialist
Joseph Windrem, Director of Lessons Learned Program
122 | ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2008 (P.L. 110-181)
established the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan
Reconstruction (SIGAR).
SIGAR’s oversight mission, as defined by the legislation, is to provide for the
independent and objective
• conduct and supervision of audits and investigations relating to the programs
and operations funded with amounts appropriated or otherwise made available
for the reconstruction of Afghanistan.
• leadership and coordination of, and recommendations on, policies designed
to promote economy, efficiency, and effectiveness in the administration of the
programs and operations, and to prevent and detect waste, fraud, and abuse
in such programs and operations.
• means of keeping the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense fully
and currently informed about problems and deficiencies relating to the
administration of such programs and operation and the necessity for and
progress on corrective action.
Afghanistan reconstruction includes any major contract, grant, agreement,

or other funding mechanism entered into by any department or agency of the
U.S. government that involves the use of amounts appropriated or otherwise made
available for the reconstruction of Afghanistan.
Source: P.L. 110-181, “National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2008,” 1/28/2008.
SIGAR | WHAT WE NEED TO LEARN | AUGUST 2021
WASTE, FRAUD, OR ABUSE MAY BE REPORTED TO SIGAR’S HOTLINE
Cell: 0700107300
DSN: 318-237-3912 ext. 7303
WHAT WE NEED TO LEARN:
LESSONS FROM TWENTY YEARS OF
Toll-free: 866-329-8893
DSN: 312-664-0378
AFGHANISTAN RECONSTRUCTION
By fax: 703-601-4065
By email: sigar.hotline@mail.mil
SIGAR 21-46-LL
SIGAR
2530 Crystal Drive

Arlington, VA 22202
www.sigar.mil
August 2021

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SIGAR | WHAT WE NEED TO LEARN | AUGUST 2021

WASTE, FRAUD, OR ABUSE MAY BE REPORTED TO SIGAR’S HOTLINE

2530 Crystal Drive

Afghanistan reconstruction includes any major contract, grant, agreement,

Cover photo credit:

Special Inspector General

What We Need to Learn: Lessons from Twenty Years of Afghanistan Reconstruction is

2530 CRYSTAL DRIVE, ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA 22202

Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction

2530 CRYSTAL DRIVE, ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA 22202

LETTER FROM THE INSPECTOR GENERAL II

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VII

APPENDICES AND ENDNOTES 101

AUGUST 2021 | VII

1. Strategy: The U.S. government continuously struggled to develop

The challenges U.S. officials faced in creating long-term, sustainable improvements

2. Timelines: The U.S. government consistently underestimated the amount

The U.S. reconstruction effort in Afghanistan could be described as 20 one-

VIII | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3. Sustainability: Many of the institutions and infrastructure projects

4. Personnel: Counterproductive civilian and military personnel policies

5. Insecurity: Persistent insecurity severely undermined reconstruction efforts.

Effectively rebuilding Afghanistan required a detailed understanding of the

consistently operating in the dark, often because of the difficulty of collecting

7. Monitoring and Evaluation: U.S. government agencies rarely conducted

I have noticed too much of a tendency towards what might be called

XII | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

AUGUST 2021 | XIII

1. The U.S. government continuously struggled to develop and implement a coherent

Afghans had no experience participating in elections, much less administering them.

ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS BY FUNDING CATEGORY ($ BILLIONS)

Security Governance/Development Humanitarian Agency Operations Total

Note: Numbers have been rounded.

• Reduce rampant corruption in the Afghan government to improve its performance

Security Governance/Development Humanitarian Agency Operations Total

FEAR FOR PERSONAL SAFETY

R ebuilding a country devastated by decades of war is a daunting task. Senior

THE CHALLENGE OF OWNERSHIP

As a result, the NSC’s primary contribution to reconstruction strategy was in the

strategy development “and an underappreciation of policy, diplomacy, and development.

State’s 7,900 foreign service officers—the backbone of the agency—

standards in reconstruction efforts, State is unlikely to be given the necessary resources

Until State and USAID enjoy the benefits of DOD’s accountability

THE ENDS WERE MURKY, AND GREW IN NUMBER AND COMPLEXITY

Strategic Limitations of the International Alliance

ENEMY-INITIATED ATTACKS, 2002–2020

1,281 1,880 2,322

“The ultimate point of failure for our efforts wasn’t an insurgency.

THE ENDS, WAYS, AND MEANS WERE POORLY ALIGNED

assumptions. After coordinating Afghanistan strategy at the National Security Council

We were devoid of a fundamental understanding of Afghanistan. We didn’t

It was a minimalism approach. We will help these guys set up a government

insisted on “absolutely minimizing the application of . . . military manpower and

Other U.S. government decisions in Afghanistan helped ensure there would be no

Appropriated Funds ($ Billions)

Troop Levels (Thousands)

The U.S. government refused opportunities to reconcile

SHIFTING THE STRATEGY TOWARD NEGOTIATIONS

Significant movement became possible when U.S. officials dropped a long-held