CHAPTER 5: TRAFFIC ASSESSMENT

5.1 Introduction
Upon completion of the route location process discussed in the previous chapter 3 of these notes,
the designer then estimates the amount of traffic and the cumulative number of equivalent standard
axles that will use the road over the selected design life.
It usually involves: measurement of traffic volume by class; measurement of axle loads; choosing
the design life and the calculation of the total traffic in esa or msa, and finally, assignment of a
traffic class to the amount of traffic ascertained with guidance from the structure catalogue.
In addition, information on traffic flow of vehicles past a given point in a specified time period
provides a key input to decisions on the planning, design and operation of transport systems. This
data is used in highway planning and helps in the design of road pavements, establishment of
control measures, carrying out of cost benefit analyses and studying accident patterns in relation
to traffic volume.

5.2 Estimation of Traffic Flows (F)

a) Introduction
Generally, heavier loads require thicker pavements provided other design factors remain constant.
The structural design of a pavement largely depends on the traffic (or design wheel load) projected
to use that pavement. In design of a pavement, knowledge of the maximum wheel load is more
important than gross weight of vehicles.
During design, emphasis is placed on commercial and heavy goods vehicles whose axle weight is
greater than 1,500 kg. It is these classes of vehicle that are most damaging to the pavement making
their volumes a critical parameter in design [TRL, 1993]. When
designing a new road, the total flow of commercial vehicles in one direction per day at the roads
opening are normally required in order to determine the cumulative design traffic over the design
life. For purposes of pavement design, vehicles weighing less than 1500 kg may be ignored. If the
traffic flow figures available are for two way flow, the directional split is assumed to be in ratio
1:2 (in favour of the heavily trafficked lane) unless traffic studies show otherwise [Kadiyali, 2006].
The distribution of commercial vehicle traffic can be expected to vary at particular points along
the road e.g. where lanes leave or join a carriageway, or at traffic signals or at roundabouts.
Nonetheless in the design of new roads the traffic distribution considered is that away from
junctions. All lanes are designed to carry the heaviest traffic load assessed from the most trafficked
lane.
b) Baseline Traffic Flows (Fo)
To determine the total traffic over the design life of the road, the first step is to estimate baseline
traffic flows. The estimate should be the (Annual) Average Daily Traffic
(AADT) currently using the route, classified into the vehicle categories of cars, light goods
vehicles, trucks (heavy goods vehicles) and buses. The AADT is defined as the total annual traffic
summed for both directions and divided by 365. It is usually obtained by recording actual traffic
flows over a shorter period from which the AADT is then estimated. For long projects, large
differences in traffic along the road may make it necessary to estimate the flow at several locations.
It should be noted that for structural design purposes the traffic loading in one direction is required
and care is always required when interpreting AADT figures.
The daily variability in traffic flow depends on the volume of traffic. It increases as traffic levels
fall, with high variability on roads carrying less than 1000 vehicles per day.
In order to reduce error, it is recommended that traffic counts to establish ADT at a specific site
conform to the following practice:
(i) The counts are for seven consecutive days.
(ii) The counts on some of the days are for a full 24 hours, with preferably at least one
(iii)24-hour count on a weekday and one during a weekend. On the other days 16-hour counts
should be sufficient. These should be grossed up to 24-hour values in the same proportion as
the 16-hour/24 hour split on those days when full 24-hour counts have been undertaken.
(iv) Counts are avoided at times when travel activity is abnormal for short periods due to the
payment of wages and salaries, public holidays, etc. If abnormal traffic flows persist for
extended periods, for example during harvest times, additional counts need to be made to
ensure this traffic is properly included.
(v) If possible, the seven-day counts should be repeated several times throughout the year [TRL,
1993].
Steps taken when performing traffic surveys
The following steps are generally taken when carrying out a traffic survey;
(i) Traffic count data sheets are made indicating the classification of vehicles, i.e. cars, pick-
ups, minibuses, buses, trucks and trailers (See figure 2.1 for a sample of a classified count
data sheet);
(ii) Traffic count stations along the road are then identified;
(iii)On the day of data collection, Enumerators who are trained to carry out the traffic survey are
positioned at the identified station at least 30 minutes before the start of the counting time;
(iv) The enumerators then record classified directional traffic volumes by tallying in the tally sheets;
(v) The traffic data recorded on the daily tally sheets is then summarized in the summary sheet, so
as to obtain the directional traffic volume per category per day;
(vi) The ADT volume counted was then calculated by applying Equation 3-1.
1 Equation 5-1
𝐴𝐷𝑇 = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑉𝑂𝐿𝑖,
𝑛

Where; VOLi = daily volume in the ith day, and n = the number of whole days of counting.
Figure 5.1: Form for Manual Classified Counts
Vehicle Category Identification Sheets
Figure 5.2: Vehicle Identification Sheet (Trucks and busses)

Figure 5.3: Vehicle Identification Sheet (Light Motorized Vehicles)

Figure 5.4: Vehicle Identification Sheet (Non-Motorized Vehicles)

c) Projected Traffic (Fp)
Forecasting traffic growth is a difficult exercise and may involve uncertainty in growth predictions.
Some factors considered together with traffic modelling include:
 Economic growth,
 Vehicle growth, and
 Land use development.
Therefore, to reduce uncertainty, sensitivity and risk analyses are involved in the process [TRL,
1993].
In order to forecast traffic growth it is necessary to separate traffic into the following three
categories:
(i) Normal traffic; Traffic which would pass along the existing road or track even if no new
pavement were provided.
(ii) Diverted traffic; Traffic that changes from another route (or mode of transport) to the project
road because of the improved pavement, but still travels between the same origin and destination.
(iii) Generated traffic; Additional traffic which occurs in response to the provision or
improvement of the road.
For existing roads, the greatest traffic contribution is from the normal traffic. We shall therefore
only examine the methods used to forecast normal traffic (The student is encouraged to find out
how the other two types of traffic are forecast).
The commonest method of forecasting normal traffic is to extrapolate time series data on traffic
levels and assume that growth will either remain constant in absolute terms i.e. a fixed number of
vehicles per year (a linear extrapolation), or constant in relative terms i.e. a fixed percentage
increase [TRL, 1993].
A constant growth rate formula shown below is normally used to project the traffic to the design
year.

…5.2
Where,
Fp = Cumulative number of commercial vehicles after ‘n’ years
Fo = Present number of vehicles after the traffic survey;
r = Growth rate of commercial vehicles;
n = Number of years of projection

d) Axle Loading (W)

i) Axle Equivalency
The damage that vehicles do to a road depends very strongly on the axle loads of the vehicles. For
pavement design purposes the damaging power of axles is related to a 'standard' axle of 8.16 tonnes
using equivalence factors which have been derived from empirical studies.
In order to determine the cumulative axle load damage that a pavement will sustain during its
design life, it is necessary to express the total number of heavy vehicles that will use the road over
this period in terms of the cumulative number of equivalent standard axles (esa).
Axle load surveys must be carried out to determine the axle load distribution of a sample of the
heavy vehicles using the road. Data collected from these surveys are used to calculate the mean
number of equivalent standard axles for a typical vehicle in each class. The axle loading for each
category of commercial vehicle is the sum of the front and rear axles. For commercial vehicles
with more than one rear axle, the total equivalent standard axle for the vehicle will be the sum of
the front and each of the rear equivalent standard axles. These values are then used in conjunction
with traffic forecasts to determine the predicted cumulative equivalent standard axles that the road
will carry over its design life.
The wear factor can be calculated from the following equation;

…5.3

ii) Axle Load Surveys

If no recent axle load data is available, it is recommended that axle load surveys of heavy vehicles
are undertaken whenever a major road project is being designed. Ideally, several surveys at periods
which will reflect seasonal changes in the magnitude of axle loads are recommended. It is also
recommended that axle load surveys are carried out by weighing a sample of vehicles at the
roadside. The sample should be chosen such that a maximum of about 60 vehicles per hour are
weighed. The weighing site should be level and, if possible, constructed in such a way that vehicles
are pulled clear of the road when being weighed. The portable weighbridge should be mounted in
a small pit with its surface level with the surrounding area. This ensures that all of the wheels of
the vehicle being weighed are level and eliminates the errors which can be introduced by even a
small twist or tilt of the vehicle.

Figure 2.2: Axle Load Survey Form A for recording vehicle survey data
Source: TRL (2004)
 Figure
2.3: Axle Load Survey Form B for recording vehicle wheel loads
Source: TRL (2004)

e) Growth Factor (G)

Growth is assumed to be compound over the design period. The Portland Cement
Association developed a formula that applies traffic at the middle of the design period as
the design traffic as shown below;

…5.4
Where;
G = the growth factor;
r = the growth rate; and
n = the design period
The ‘Asphalt Institute’ and the ‘AASHTO Design Guide’ recommend the use of traffic over the
entire design period to determine the total growth factor as follows;

…5.5
f) Design Life (Y)
The design period is the time during which the road will accommodate traffic at a satisfactory level
of service without requiring capital intervention (or further funding) in the form of rehabilitation
or strengthening. For most road projects an economic analysis period of between 10 and 20 years
from the date of opening is appropriate, but for major projects this period should be tested as part
of the appraisal process discussed in chapter 2 of this class notes.
Table 5.1 can be used to guide the pavement designer in choosing the appropriate design life as
recommended by the Ministry of Works and Transport, Pavement Design Manual (2005).
Table 5.1: Selection of Design Life

A pavement design life of 15 years also reduces the problem of forecasting uncertain traffic trends
for long periods into the future. It should be noted that design life does not mean that at the end of
the period the pavement will be completely worn out and in need of reconstruction; it means that
towards the end of the period the pavement will need to be strengthened so that it can continue to
carry traffic satisfactorily for a further period.

5.3 Determination of Cumulative Standard Axles (T)

A successful outcome of the pavement design process in any given instance is dependent upon the
accuracy with which the total number of standard axle loads, and their cumulative wear or damage
effects, can be predicted for the design lane(s) over the period of the selected design life.
The summary of steps involved in carrying out a full traffic assessment include the following:
(i) Estimate the present one-way commercial vehicle flow or the traffic flow, F, at the opening
of a new road. For each class of vehicles select the initial design period Y;
(ii) Determine the appropriate average wear factor, W, to be used with each vehicle class;
(iii)Determine the growth factor, G, for each category of vehicle;
(iv) Calculate the cumulative design traffic in each vehicle class using the equation shown below:

….5.6
Where;

….5.7
i = vehicle class

Note:
In case of a two-way single carriage-way pavement, the total design traffic, T, is the summation
of the cumulative design traffic in each category in a given direction.
In case of a dual carriageway road the proportion of vehicles in the most heavily trafficked lane is
normally obtained and applied to the total accumulation to derive the design traffic.
Channelization Factor (Ch)
In certain cases, the equation for the cumulative design traffic includes a channelization factor,
thus Ti = 365 F.W.G.Y.Ch (10-6) msa.
In the urban area it is relevant to consider the effects of vehicle channelization which may be
caused by various factors. In 1983 the County Surveyors Society report entitled “Vehicle Damage
Factors Present, Past and Future Values” indicated that where the normal tendency for transverse
wander is constrained by, for example, traffic islands then the damaging effect can be at least twice
that normally expected. In narrow urban streets where one street parking is permitted there is a
tendency for buses and Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV’s) to use the same wheel tracks when passing
in both directions [Ruhweza, 2005].
The effect of bus stop areas is another location where an increased axle load factor may be relevant.
The same applies to traffic signal junctions and roundabouts. In the case of long severe gradients
where there are significant HGV flows, there is an indication that the normal damaging effect
calculations may not be adequate. The following overall multipliers are suggested in Table 2.2.
Table 2.2: Axle Factor Multipliers

N.B: It is usually advised that the total multiplier used should not exceed 3.0.
In certain locations and circumstances, it may be appropriate to consider the multipliers to be
cumulative. Table 5.3 shows the various traffic classes and their corresponding equivalent standard
axles, in msa.
Table 5.3: Traffic Classes

5.4 Example 1: Traffic Assessment

The Kampala – Gayaza road is in a state of failure and is due for reconstruction. Tables
5.4 and 5.5 below show the results of a traffic survey at different stations on the above road. The
survey was carried out on 1st January, 2018 and construction is to begin in
December, 2019. The road is expected to be opened to traffic on 1st January, 20.
Table 5.4: Two-Way Traffic Volume at the Project Road (in vehicles/day)

Table 5.5: Axle Weights (in tonnes)

Considering the design traffic loading at station “D” and assuming a 15 year design period, design
the pavement using the TRL approach. (Assume that the traffic grows at the rates indicated for
each vehicle class in Table 5.4 above).
5.6 Bibliography
1. Kadiyali, L.R., 2006. Principles and Practices of Highway Engineering (including
Expressways and Airport Engineering), 4th Edition. Khanna Publishers, New Delhi.
2. Ministry of Works, and Transport, 2005. Road Design ManualVol.III, Pavement Design
Manual, Republic of Uganda, Kampala.
3. O’Flaherty C.A., 2002. Highways: The Location, Design, Construction and
Maintenance of Pavements. 4th Edition, Oxford, Butterworth Heinemann.
4. Ruhweza, D., 2005, Highway Engineering I. Lecture notes, Department of Civil Engineering,
Kyambogo University.
6. Transport Research Laboratory, 2004, A Guide to Axle Load Surveys and Traffic Counts for
Determining Traffic Loading on Pavements, Overseas Road Note 40, Crowthorne, England.