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Assessment of Water Supply–Demand Using Water Evaluation and Planning

(WEAP) Model for Ur River Watershed, Madhya Pradesh, India

Article  in  Journal of the Institution of Engineers (India): Agricultural Engineering Division · October 2018
DOI: 10.1007/s40030-018-0329-0

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J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40030-018-0329-0

ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTION

Assessment of Water Supply–Demand Using Water Evaluation

and Planning (WEAP) Model for Ur River Watershed, Madhya
Pradesh, India
Sunny Agarwal1 • Jyoti P. Patil2 • V. C. Goyal3 • Ajai Singh4

Received: 5 April 2017 / Accepted: 10 October 2018

Ó The Institution of Engineers (India) 2018

Abstract Many watersheds experience scarcity of water using PEST tool, available in WEAP. The calibrated model
for agricultural and domestic use for most part of the year. was used for estimating future water demands and unmet
Ur river watershed in Tikamgarh district of Madhya Pra- demands by using future climate series, from 2015 to 2030,
desh, India, falls under a drought prone region of India. of IPCC scenario- RCP 4.5 of GDFL-ESM2M model. As
Water allocation and management are essential for sus- per GFDLESM2M model (RCP4.5) predictions, rainfall is
tainable agriculture for this region. Water Evaluation and going to greatly vary in the coming years. The years
Planning system (WEAP)-based decision support system 2020–2021 and 2028–2029 may experience very dry cli-
can prove to be an effective tool for water allocation, matic conditions with 500 mm or less annual rainfall, while
supply and demand analysis. In the present study, spatially 2017–2018, 2023–2024 and 2025–2026 may experience
distributed model by using WEAP-MABIA method has heavy showers (1200 mm). Straight effects of this rainfall
been developed for analysis and simulation of agricultural pattern could be seen in future water availability for agri-
water demands in the Ur river watershed. WEAP-MABIA culture and resultant crop yield. A high unmet demand
method uses dual crop coefficient approach which helps in exists in the case of agriculture since the first priority for
computing the separate soil evaporation and transpiration water supply is meant to be for domestic purpose. Area
under various water availability situations. Year under agriculture in Ur river watershed is large, while
2012–2013 is used as base year for customizing WEAP respective water supply is low. This gap puts an extra
model for 8 subwatersheds. The model was calibrated pressure on water resources leading to over extraction of
groundwater and related problems. Looking at this sce-
nario, water allocation requires great attention to narrow
& Ajai Singh down the gap between existing demands and water supply.
ajai.singh@cuj.ac.in
Since area under agriculture is large, water-efficient crops
Sunny Agarwal should be more emphasized. Also, efficient agricultural
sunny.agarwal@cuj.ac.in
practices and rain water harvesting should be promoted in
Jyoti P. Patil the study area. Since the watershed falls in semiarid con-
jyotipp2003@gmail.com
dition and river flows are seasonal, different stress/deficit
V. C. Goyal irrigation scenarios can be built using customized WEAP
vcgoyal@yahoo.com
model to get higher yield.
1
Department of Civil Engineering, K.L. Education
Foundation, Vaddeswaram, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh 522502, Keywords WEAP
MABIA
Ur river
Water allocation

India Bundelkhand
2
National Institute of Hydrology, New Delhi 110002, India
3
Head of RMO Division, National Institute of Hydrology,
Roorkee, Uttrakhand 247667, India
4
Department of Water Engineering and Management, Central
University of Jharkhand, Ranchi 835205, India

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 J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A

Introduction environmental reserve, international agreements and water

conservation and demand management strategies on the
The National Water Policy of India (2012) recognizes that water resource [7]. It was used to develop and assess water
development and management of water resources need to quality management plans to mitigate the discharge of
be governed by national perspectives and aims to develop untreated wastewater into the Upper Litani Basin in
and conserve the water resources in an integrated and Lebanon [8]. An application of the WEAP system was
environmentally sound basis. It recognizes the safe water made to study the impact of climate change on agricultural
for drinking and sanitation as pre-emptive needs, followed water management and the potential for adaptation in the
by high priority allocation for other basic domestic needs Sacramento River Basin of California [9]. Climate time
(including needs of animals), achieving food security, series were used to simulate agricultural water manage-
supporting sustenance agriculture and minimum ecosystem ment with and without adaptation in terms of improve-
needs. Available water, after meeting the above needs, ments in irrigation efficiency and shifts in cropping
should be allocated in a manner to promote its conservation patterns during dry periods. The study confirmed WEAP
and efficient use. It further emphasizes to take up river evaluating future climate scenarios and also the water
basin, basic hydrological unit, for planning. The concept of demand associated with high temperatures and low rainfall
Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) has in a more robust manner than any other tool. A new
been well considered as one of the best measures to achieve accounting and analytical approach based on WEAP model
water resources sustainability [1]. IWRM is a process of was investigated in a study in Langat catchment, Selangor
implementing and formulating shared vision, management [10]. WEAP model was used for managing the water
and planning strategies for sustainable water resources resources of Alana valley in Iraq by building different
utilization and development with due consideration of all scenarios [11]. WEAP was applied to analyze the man-
temporal and spatial interdependencies among human, agement of transboundary water resources in the Jordan
natural process and ecological water uses [2]. However, River basin which is a very complex situation due to
tools for quantitative analysis are still lacking to guide political conflicts in the region [12]. WEAP was used to
water resources assessment and use by the local stake- make some baseline and adaptation strategy scenarios for
holders and watershed managers. Water Evaluation and water supply and demand in the Sinu-Caribe river basin in
Planning (WEAP) system among different IWRM models Colombia and project potential impacts of climate change
is an exemplary application linking demand and supply in the basin [13]. Studies examined the consequences of
side requirements. The Water Evaluation and Planning various climate change scenarios and adaptive manage-
model (WEAP) model, developed by the Stockholm ment options on water supply by integrating the Soil and
Environment Institute, incorporates watershed-scale Water Assessment Tool and Water Evaluation and Plan-
hydrologic processes with water management model by ning models [14, 15]. The potential of Efficient Global
introducing the concept of demand priorities and supply Optimization (EGO) algorithm and capabilities of WEAP
preferences [4]. WEAP model is advanced, integrated has been explored and investigated within PSO framework
modeling software that simulates and models water sup- [16].
plies, water demands and environmental requirements as Research work is being carried out in India on appli-
well as considers effects of policies on water quantity, cation on WEAP application for a variety of purposes. One
water quality and the ecosystem. Supply preferences and of the significant uses of the model was to evaluate the
demand priorities are considered by WEAP to solve the water availability as against water demand in the link from
water allocation problem using a combination of linear Godavari River (at Polavaram) to Krishna River (at
programming and heuristics [3]. Using WEAP a water Vijayawada) [17]. WEAP was also applied in the Kang-
planner can analyze a full range of water issues through a sabati river basin of West Bengal for hydrologic modeling
scenario- based approach. Scenarios could include climate of climate change adaption measures. The model was
variability and change, watershed condition and changes, competent to provide useful scenario analysis in incorpo-
anticipated demands, ecosystem needs, the regulatory rating location specific current and future climatic condi-
environment, operational objectives, and available infras- tions for hydrologically relevant assessment of potential
tructure [4]. adaptation options [18]. Another application was to
WEAP has been used in the United States of America examine the impacts of climate change on the supply and
(USA) for hydrological modeling [5], water use and allo- demand of water and the resulting socio-economic impli-
cation studies and effects of climate change on agriculture cations for the Dachigam stream and Sindh stream of Sri-
[6]. WEAP was applied to evaluate the impacts of three nagar [19].
water demand growth scenarios, implementation of From review of various applications of WEAP, it was
inferred that WEAP model can be applied successfully for

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J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A

developing water management plan in the drought prone Climate

area of Bundelkhand in India. In this paper, WEAP has
been chosen to evaluate the water demand and supply in Ur The climate of the region is semiarid with four seasons.
river watershed of Bundelkhand region for different water The winter season extends from December to February
uses. The main objective of the study is the calibration of followed by the summer season from March to mid-June;
WEAP model to develop an Integrated Water Resource rainy season from mid-June to September and the transition
Management plan for Ur River catchment in Tikamgarh season spans from October to November. After February,
district of Madhya Pradesh. the temperature rises progressively. May is the hottest
month with mean daily maximum temperature at 43 °C.
The relative humidity is high during the monsoon season
Materials and Methods (70%). The summer season is dry with relative humidity of
less than 20%. Average annual rainfall of the watershed is
Description of Study Area about 1100 mm. About 90% of the annual rainfall in the
district is received during the south-west monsoon season
Ur river watershed covers parts of Tikamgarh, Jatara, (June–September). Ur river watershed predominantly has
Baldeogarh, and Palera blocks of Tikamgarh district, blend of sandy loam soil (68%), sandy clay loam (29%)
Madhya Pradesh, India, and has a total area of 991.60 km2. and silty clay loam (3%). Soil with shallow depth, limited
The watershed has a maximum elevation of 361 m above organic matter and poor moisture content has produced
mean sea level and minimum elevation of 154 m above cumulative effect on agriculture leading to low agriculture
mean sea level. The overall drainage pattern of the Ur river yield. The presence of the substratum of impermeable rock
watershed is dendritic. Morphometric analysis of Ur river in the watershed does not support groundwater recharge, so
watershed showed that it had five order streams and there ground water level is continuously depleting and is in
are total 555 stream segments. The location of study area is critical stage. The climate data used in this study were
shown in Fig. 1. obtained from India Meteorological Department.

Fig. 1 Location map of Ur river watershed. (Source: MPCST, Bhopal)

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 J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A

Land Use and Geology Building WEAP Model

Most part of the study area is under agriculture (489 km2) In WEAP data requirements are Groundwater table depth,
which is about 49% of the total watershed area (Fig. 2). Reservoir storage, Hydrological Parameters, Land Use,
The economy of the district is predominantly based on Topographic and Geomorphic Features, Crop data, Soil
agriculture. Wheat, Jawar, Maize, Gram, Blackgram, properties, Metrological/Climatic, Irrigation, Yield of each
Soybean, Sesame, and vegetables are the major crops crop, Water Demand and Demographic details, etc. For
grown in the area. The agricultural area is spread all around modeling purpose, the Ur river watershed was divided into
the watershed, possibly because of the large number of 8-sub-watersheds according to drainage network, topogra-
tanks that provide irrigation and domestic demands. The phy and soil types (Fig. 3). GIS vector maps of river net-
scrub land is the second most dominant land use in the work along with map of 8 sub-watersheds were imported
study area covering an area of 166 km2. The area covered for building the model in WEAP. The detailed procedure
by the settlement is 16 km2, whereas dense forest occupies for WEAP model using MABIA method is given in
an area of 44 km2. The river and water bodies cover an flowchart as Fig. 4. The detailed procedure includes defi-
area of 39 km2, land with or without scrub land 135 km2, nition of the study area and time frame. Setting up of the
fallow land covers 25 km2 and barren land covers 76 km2 time frame includes the last year of scenario creation and
of the watershed. The forests are located toward the initial year of application. Creation of the Current Account
western portion of the watershed, whereas the scrubs are and creation of scenarios on the future assumptions for
located mostly toward the south-western, western and generation of the results from created scenarios. Further,
north-western parts of the watershed. Massive granite rocks the WEAP-MABIA module provide opportunity for mod-
are found in the district at the depth of 4–6 m. The possi- eling crop water requirement and prediction of different
bility of water bearing strata is therefore remote, and the water balance components including the irrigation
underground water is available at only shallow depth. scheduling. The MABIA Method is a daily simulation of
Several tanks have been constructed in the region for irri- transpiration, evaporation, irrigation requirements and
gation purpose. scheduling, crop growth and yields, and includes modules
for estimating reference evapotranspiration and soil water
Water Resources Information capacity. The three streamflow gauges were also placed in
the schematic to assist in model calibration, by comparing
The agriculture in Ur river watershed is purely dependent the model calculated stream flows with runoff/streamflow
on rainfall, but the availability of water from tanks and at same location. The first streamflow gauge was placed as
other surface bodies is very important to sustain irrigated the outlet of sub-watershed 1 and 2, other at the combined
agriculture and provide security to farmers. The need for outlet of sub-watersheds 3, 4, 5 and 6, and another was
security of water has always been felt and Bundelkhand placed at the outlet of Ur river watershed. The developed
region is known for well-distributed water bodies. The WEAP schematic of Ur river watershed is placed in Fig. 5.
reservoirs of watershed include Madan Sagar tank, which is Transmission links deliver water from surface water
a very large tank with its canal system is located toward the (reservoir nodes, and withdrawal nodes), groundwater and
north-west corner of the watershed. Gwal Sagar, Prem other supplies to satisfy final demand at demand sites. In
Sagar, Bahru Tal, Rayra Tal are the major tanks of the addition, transmission links can deliver wastewater out-
watershed. The details including designed capacity, present flows from demand sites and wastewater treatment plants
water level, culturable command area and beneficiary vil- to other demand sites. Runoff/infiltration links carry runoff
lages were obtained from tank gauge report of minor irri- and infiltration from catchments to rivers, reservoirs, and
gation scheme in Tikamgarh district. The net annual groundwater nodes. Water that is not consumed at a
ground water availability of the district is 530 MCM, demand site can be directed to one or more demand sites,
whereas existing gross ground water draft is 378 MCM. wastewater treatment plants, and surface or groundwater
The stage of ground water development of the district is nodes. Return flows are specified as a percentage of
only 71% [20]. The information related to net groundwater outflows.
availability, existing gross GW availability for domestic,
industrial and irrigation purposes, stage of GW develop- The Linear Programming (LP) Allocation Routine
ment is Table 1.
WEAP model calculates a water balance for every node
and link in the system at each time step.
A node represents a physical component such as a
demand site, wastewater treatment plant, groundwater

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J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A

Fig. 2 Land use/land cover map of the Ur river watershed. (Source: MPCST, Bhopal)

aquifer, reservoir or special location along a river. Nodes water conduits such as river channels, canals and pipelines.
are linked by lines that represent the natural or man-made These lines include rivers, diversions, and transmission

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 J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A

Table 1 Groundwater resources and stage of development (CGWB 2013)

Block Net GW Existing gross GW Existing gross GW draft Existing gross GW Net GW availability for Stage of GW
availability draft for irrigation for domestic and industries draft for all uses future irrigation development
(ham) (ham) (ham) (ham) development (ham) (%)

Baldeogarh 8600 6571 435 7006 1346 81

Jatara 11,934 7137 530 7668 3943 64
Palera 6973 5227 395 5622 1121 81
Tikamgarh 9779 6900 238 7138 555 73

Fig. 3 Eight Sub-watersheds of

Ur river watershed

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J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A

Fig. 4 Building of WEAP

model for Ur river watershed Addition of 8 Sub-Watershed (SW) boundary and River network and water bodies
vector maps

Trace Ur river and other major tributaries of Ur river in each SW

Create eight sub watershed domestic demand nodes for population and livestock
(DM1, DM2, DM3, DM4, DM5, DM6, DM7 and DM8)

Create eight sub-watershed and Culturable Command (CC) demand nodes for
agriculture and other land uses (SW1, SW2,---SW8; CC1, CC2---CC8)

Create eight representative Ground water (GW) supply nodes for each Subwatershed
(GW1,GW2,GW3,GW4,GW5, GW6, GW7 and GW8)

Create Reservoir nodes in each sub-watershed as per their capacities. Large reservoirs
were located and Small reservoirs were clubbed together

Connect all demand sites with respective Groundwater, River and Reservoir node with
the help of transmission links

Demand sites were given priority and supply resources were given preferences to meet
the various demands

The current account of the model was set as 2012-13 and all the available data as
discussed in previous sections was fed to the model.

Model was calibrated using PEST calibration tool

Future climate data of GFDL-ESM2M model for RCP4.5 and period upto 2030 was
input to the model to generate various data

links and return flow links. Each period is independent of Demand Priorities and Supply Preferences
the previous, except for reservoir storage, aquifer storage,
and soil moisture. Thus, all of the water entering the system A standard linear program which uses mixed integer linear
in a given time period is either stored in the soil, an aquifer, programming (MILP) in WEAP model to solve the water
a river, a tributary, a reservoir, or leaves the system by the allocation problem whose objective is to maximize satis-
end of that period. All flows are assumed to occur instan- faction of demand, subject to supply priorities, demand site
taneously and a demand site can withdraw water from the preferences, mass balances, and other constraints. The
river, consume some, return the remaining to a wastewater constraint set is iteratively defined at each time step to
treatment plant, which then returns it to the river, all in the sequentially consider the ranking of the demand priorities
same time step. Given there is no routing, one should and supply preferences [21]. MILP involves problems in
choose a model time step at least as long as the residence which only some of the variables are constrained to be
time of water corresponding to the period of lowest flow. integers, while other variables are allowed to be non-inte-
Larger watersheds should adopt longer times steps (e.g., gers [19].The approach has some attributes of a more tra-
1 month for example), while smaller watersheds can apply ditional dynamic programming algorithm, where the model
shorter time steps (e.g., 1 day, 5 days, 10 days, etc.) as all is solved in sequence based on the knowledge of values
demands can be satisfied within the current time step. In derived from the previous variables and equations [22, 23].
case of Ur river watershed, monthly time steps were chosen Individual demand sites, reservoirs, and in-stream flow
to run the model. requirements are assigned a unique priority number, which
are integers that range from 1 (highest priority) to 99
(lowest priority). Those entities with a Priority 1 ranking
are members of Equity Group 1, those with a Priority 2

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 J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A

Fig. 5 WEAP schematic of Ur river watershed

ranking are members of Equity Group 2, and so on. Priority parameters until the discrepancies between selected model
number has to be assigned by user as per supply prefer- outputs and a complementary set of field or laboratory
ences. The LP constraint set is written to supply an equal measurements is reduced to a minimum in the weighted
percentage of water to the members of each equity group. least squares sense [24].
Similar to demand priorities, supply preferences apply an The calibration of Ur river WEAP model was performed
integer ranking scheme to define which sources will supply using monthly streamflow gauge data at three different
a single demand site. To achieve this effect in the alloca- locations as shown in Fig. 5. The monthly measured and
tion algorithm, each supply to the same demand site is simulated flows were compared by the correlation coeffi-
assigned a preference rank, and within the given priority, cient (R2), which yield satisfactory values varied between
the LP algorithm iterates across each supply preference to 0.67 and 0.70 for the monthly streamflow values.
maximize coverage at each demand site.

Calibration of WEAP Model Results and Discussion

WEAP includes a linkage to a parameter estimation tool The calibrated WEAP model of Ur river watershed was
(PEST) that allows the user to automate the process of used for estimating water demands and unmet demands for
comparing WEAP outputs to historical observations and the future years. For this purpose, future climate series of
modifying model parameters to improve its accuracy. Global Circulation Model (GCM) GFDL-ESM2M under
Parameter Estimation Tool (PEST) is a computer software, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, for the
for model-independent parameter estimation and uncer- period 2015–2030 was input to the customized WEAP
tainty analysis. PEST is able to ‘‘take control’’ of a model, model of Ur river watershed. The annual rainfall pattern
running it as many times as it needs to while adjusting its over eight sub-watersheds of Ur river watershed during

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J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A

Fig. 6 Annual rainfall over 8 sub-watersheds

2015–2016 to 2029–2030 (15 years) is shown in Fig. 6. Table 2 Percentage share of domestic and livestock population over
The GCM predicted climate series shows the conditions to 8 sub-watersheds
be very dry with an average rainfall of nearly 450 mm for
DM Domestic % Share Livestock % Share
the year 2015–2016 and 2020–2021. The year 2028–2029
has been predicted to be the driest among all with an DM1 45,640 15.25 41,537 11.79
average rainfall of less than 400 mm. On contrary, 3 years DM2 32,399 10.82 34,775 9.87
(2017–2018, 2023–2024, and 2025–2026) would experi- DM3 39,334 13.14 51,080 14.50
ence an average rainfall of more than 1200 mm resulting in DM4 14,721 4.92 10,082 2.86
wet conditions. The rest all years are expected to receive DM5 57,882 19.33 72,299 20.53
normal rainfall, i.e., 800–1000 mm. DM6 36,021 12.03 48,719 13.83
The predicted dry and wet conditions set an alarm to the DM7 42,480 14.19 62,440 17.73
existing water conservation strategies. Efficiently harvested DM8 30,892 10.32 31,315 8.89
rainwater in wet years can become a savior for the dry Total 299,369 100 352,247 100
years. Effective management is required to deal with the 3
Annual water use rate per unit: domestic = 25.55 m /person; live-
upcoming dry and wet conditions otherwise the agricultural stock = 70 m3/livestock
sector would experience severe water problems in future.

Water Demands (10–15%) except DM4. It is the smallest sub-watershed as

per spatial distribution and hence the population.
Water demands for the population–livestock and agricul-
tural sectors were computed for the 15 years (2015–2030) Average Monthly Agricultural Demands
using future climate series.
The average (2015–2030) monthly agricultural water
Population–Livestock Demands demand in each sub-watershed, computed by the WEAP
model on the basis of dual crop coefficient approach, is
The details of the population and livestock in respect of 8 shown Fig. 8. It can be seen that average monthly demand
sub-watersheds are given in Table 2. Figure 7 gives a clear is about 4–6 MCM during kharif season from July to
picture of average monthly water demands of population September, except in June month, i.e., during initial crops
and livestock in Ur river watershed. The monthly water growth stage, demand is less than 2 MCM. The kharif
demands have been calculated by considering the annual crops are at the maturity stage and rabi crops are at the
water use rate of 25.55 m3/person (i.e., 70 lpd) and 70 m3/ germination stage during the October month; therefore
livestock, which are the standard use rates defined by demand is on higher side, i.e., 8–10 MCM. The demands
Bureau of Indian Standards. The demands are calculated as during kharif season are comparatively less than the rabi
per the number of days in the month. DM here stands for season, which is because of cropping pattern in the area.
Demand Management which includes population and During kharif season, black gram (Urad) and soybean
livestock of an area. DM5 has the highest share of popu- comprises about 50% of the total cultivable area, and water
lation (19%) among all the sub-watersheds. All other demand of these crops is between 550 and 560 mm per unit
watersheds have nearly equal distribution of population area, whereas wheat is sown over 65% of cultivable area
during rabi season and having water requirement of about

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 J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A

Fig. 7 Average monthly

demand of population and
livestock

Fig. 8 Average monthly

agricultural demand

600 mm per unit area. The agriculture demand follows well as the following year. The evaporative demands are
normal distribution curve over the rabi season, from Mid low during normal and wet years.
October–November to March–April. It gradually increases
from Mid October–November, high in February and Unmet Demands
decreases in March–April. The reason behind this demand
pattern is the wheat crop, crown root initiation (CRI) and In Ur river watershed, agriculture is the main source of
flowering are the most critical stages of wheat, where livelihood for the people. Therefore, to maximize social
irrigation must be supplied to the crop. The CRI stage benefits by ensuring optimum water allocation for various
occurs in between 15 and 20 days after sowing, i.e., during uses in the watershed is the sole purpose of WEAP mod-
November and flowering 50–55 days after sowing, i.e., eling. This section elaborates unmet water demands of
during February. Therefore, agricultural demands are population, livestock and agriculture sector on average
highest during the month of February when flowering stage annual basis (2015–2030; 15 years). The results of future
occurs. The demand of SW1 and SW2 is highest during unmet demands are important for formulating sustainable
rabi season as area under wheat is about 73% and 64% of water management strategies in the watershed.
the respective sub-watershed areas.
Annual Domestic (Population) and Livestock Unmet
Annual Agricultural Demands Demands

The WEAP MABIA method computes agricultural water Annual (2015–2030) domestic (population) and livestock
demands on the basis of dual crop coefficients [basal crop unmet demand for the eight sub-watersheds is given in
coefficient (Kcb) to describe plant transpiration, and the soil Fig. 10. The unmet demands will decrease in the years
water evaporation coefficient (Ke)]. The demand varies 2017–2018, 2018–2019, 2023–2024, 2025–2026 etc. This
with the amount of rainfall to be received in the respective is directly related to the amount of predicted rainfall in
year. In the years 2020–2021 and 2028–2029, dry condi- these years, which is comparatively higher than in rest of
tions have been predicted; agricultural demands are thus the years (Fig. 6). Unmet demands will be high in the
expected to be high in these years because of more number predicted very dry years, i.e., 2015–2016, 2020–2021 and
of hot days, which leads to higher evaporative demands 2028–2029. DM5 will have the highest unmet water
(Fig. 9). Similarly, in 2017–2018, 2023–2024 and demands in future also, and DM4 will have the least, which
2025–2026, demands are expected to be low in same as

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J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A

Fig. 9 Annual agricultural demand

is because of their percentage population shares (18.21%) years, and hence unmet demands are highest in these years,
and DM4 (4.63%). respectively.
The years receiving good amount of rainfall (e.g.,
Annual (2015–2030) Agricultural Unmet Demand The 2017–2018 and 2025–2026) have an effect on the unmet
annual (2015–2030) unmet demands of agriculture in Ur demands of succeeding year more than the current year.
river watershed predicted by WEAP are given in Fig. 11. The year that has encountered good amount of rainfall
Since rainfall is the main source of water supply to the would provide water for Rabi irrigation through surface
area, unmet demands follow the trend of amount of rainfall water sources, but aquifer recharge will take more time
received annually (Fig. 6). The years 2015–2016, (more than a year). Hence, agricultural water supply is
2020–2021, and 2028–2029 are the least rainfall receiving predicted to be better in the next year than in the same year
of heavy rainfall.

Fig. 10 Annual unmet

demands for
domestic ? livestock

Fig. 11 Annual unmet

agricultural demands

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 J. Inst. Eng. India Ser. A

Unmet demands are comparatively higher in case of 3. J. Sieber, D. Purkey, User Guide of Water Evaluation And
SW6 than all other sub-watersheds. The reason behind is Planning System (Stockholm Environment Institute, U.S. Center,
Stockholm Environment Institute, Davis, 2011)
the double crop agricultural practice (55%) which is 4. D. Yates, D. Purkey, J. Seiber, A. Huber-lee, H. Galbraith, J.
highest among all eight sub-watersheds. Also, the share of West, S. Herrod-Julius, Am. Soc. Civ. Eng. 81, 695–721 (2005)
Rabi crops is good enough to increase the unmet demands 5. C. Amato, D. Mckinney, E. Ingol-Blanco, R. Teasley, WEAP
of that sub-watershed. Hydrology Model Applied: The Rio Conchos Basin,
http://www.ce.utexas.edu/centers/crwr/reports/online.html.
Accessed 22 March 2016 (2006)
6. D.R. Purkey, B. Joyce, S. Vicuna, M.W. Hanemann, L.L. Dale,
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(2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9375-8
7. R. Arranz, M. McCartney, Application of the Water Evaluation
The WEAP model has been successfully customized and and Planning (WEAP) model to assess future water demands and
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