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Assignment 2 MAS291

This document contains 7 questions regarding probability and statistics as part of an assignment. Question 1 involves calculating probabilities related to the profitability of small businesses. Question 2 deals with the probability of commute times for a lawyer traveling to work. Question 3 examines the probability of drunk drivers being identified during random checks. Question 4 focuses on the exponential distribution of mechanical assembly lifetimes. Question 5 involves analyzing quality control data from spring production. Questions 6 and 7 both involve calculating probabilities from sample data and readings.

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Le Tai
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82 views

Assignment 2 MAS291

This document contains 7 questions regarding probability and statistics as part of an assignment. Question 1 involves calculating probabilities related to the profitability of small businesses. Question 2 deals with the probability of commute times for a lawyer traveling to work. Question 3 examines the probability of drunk drivers being identified during random checks. Question 4 focuses on the exponential distribution of mechanical assembly lifetimes. Question 5 involves analyzing quality control data from spring production. Questions 6 and 7 both involve calculating probabilities from sample data and readings.

Uploaded by

Le Tai
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Assignment 2

Subject: Probability & Statistics (MAS291)


Group:
………………….
NOTE:
Font: Times new roman, 13. Margins: Top: 2cm, Bottom: 2cm, Left: 3cm, Right: 2cm.
Font Math Type: Times new roman, 13.
Question 1 (10 marks). Suppose a certain type of small data processing firm is so
specialized that some have difficulty making a profit in their first year of operation.
The probability density function that characterizes the proportion Y that make a profit
is given by

(a) What is the value of k that renders the above a valid density function?
(b) Find the probability that at most 50% of the firms make a profit in the first year.
(c) Find the probability that at least 80% of the firms make a profit in the first year.
Question 2 (20 marks). A lawyer commutes daily from his suburban home to his
midtown office. The average time for a one-way trip is 24 minutes, with a standard
deviation of 3.8 minutes. Assume the distribution of trip times to be normally
distributed.
(a) What is the probability that a trip will take at least 1/2 hour?
(b) If the office opens at 9:00 A.M. and the lawyer leaves his house at 8:45 A.M. daily,
what percentage of the time is he late for work?
(c) If he leaves the house at 8:35 A.M. and coffee is served at the office from 8:50
A.M. until 9:00 A.M., what is the probability that he misses coffee?
(d) Find the length of time above which we find the slowest 15% of the trips.
(e) Find the probability that 2 of the next 3 trips will take at least 1/2 hour.
Question 3 (10 marks). Statistics released by the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration and the National Safety Council show that on an average weekend
night, 1 out of every 10 drivers on the road is drunk. If 400 drivers are randomly
checked next Saturday night, what is the probability that the number of drunk drivers
will be
1
(a) less than 32?
(b) more than 49?
(c) at least 35 but less than 47?
Question 4 (20 marks). The lifetime of a mechanical assembly in a vibration test is
exponentially distributed with a mean of 400 hours.
(a) What is the probability that an assembly on test fails in less than 100 hours?
(b) What is the probability that an assembly operates for more than 500 hours before
failure?
(c) If an assembly has been on test for 400 hours without a failure, what is the
probability of a failure in the next 100 hours?
(d) If 10 assemblies are tested, what is the probability that at least one fails in less than
100 hours? Assume that the assemblies fail independently.
(e) If 10 assemblies are tested, what is the probability that all have failed by 800
hours? Assume that the assemblies fail independently.
Question 5 (10 marks). A manufacturer of coil springs is interested in implementing a
quality control system to monitor his production process. As part of this quality
system, it is decided to record the number of nonconforming coil springs in each
production batch of size 50. During 40 days of production, 40 batches of data were
collected as follows: Read data across and down.
9 12 6 9 7 14 12 4 6 7
8 5 9 7 8 11 3 6 7 7
11 4 4 8 7 5 6 4 5 8
19 19 18 12 11 17 15 17 13 13
(a) Construct a stem-and-leaf plot of the data.
(b) Find the sample average and standard deviation.
(c) Construct a time series plot of the data. Is there evidence that there was an increase
or decrease in the average number of nonconforming springs made during the 40 days?
Explain.
Question 6 (10 marks). A random sample of size n1 = 16 is selected from a normal
population with a mean of 75 and a standard deviation of 8. A second random sample
of size n2 = 9 is taken from another normal population with mean 70 and standard
deviation 12. Let and be the two sample means. Find:

(a) The probability that exceeds 4

(b) The probability that

2
Question 7 (20 marks). Like hurricanes and earthquakes, geomagnetic storms are
natural hazards with possible severe impact on the earth. Severe storms can cause
communication and utility breakdowns, leading to possible blackouts. The National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration beams electron and proton flux data in
various energy ranges to various stations on the earth to help forecast possible
disturbances. The following are 25 readings of proton flux in the 47-68 kEV range
(units are in p/(cm2-sec-ster-MeV)) on the evening of December 28, 2011:
2310 2320 2010 10800 2190 3360 5640 2540 3360 11800 2010
3430 10600 7370 2160 3200 2020 2850 3500 10200 8550 9500
2260 7730 2250
(a) Find a point estimate of the mean proton flux in this time period.
(b) Find a point estimate of the standard deviation of the proton flux in this time
period.
(c) Find an estimate of the standard error of the estimate in part (a).
(d) Find a point estimate for the median proton flux in this time period.
(e) Find a point estimate for the proportion of readings that are less than 5000 p/(cm 2-
sec-ster-MeV).
……………………. End …………………….

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