NLM June PDF
NLM June PDF
NLM June PDF
A POISONED CHALICE:
UHURU'S LEGACY
As his presidency winds down on the back of impressive
infrastructure achievements, it cannot escape notice that
Kenya’s socio-political environment is testier than ever.
The Nairobi Law Monthly
2 • June 2022
Contents June 2022
Vol 13 • Issue 3
Publisher:
Ahmednasir Abdullahi
Managing Editor:
Kevin Motaroki
Cover Story Inside Regulars
Creative Design:
Denet Odhiambo
Staff Writers
2 | LEADER
Antony Mutunga
4 | OPENING STATEMENT
A posioned
Shadrack Muyesu
David Onjili 6 | BRIEFING
Victor Adar
Denis Ndiritu chalice:
Contributors: Uhuru's 6-8 | NEWS
Five groups ousted from UN-backed
Prof John Harbeson
Dr Tom Odhiambo legacy ‘Responsible Investment’ list
America’s inflection point: four key
P.28
Barrack Muluka
things Africa must watch for
Kibe Mungai
Joel Okwemba
Tioko Ekiru 10 | REVIEW
Newton Arori
Special Investigative For replicating UhuRuto, UhuRao
will similarly implode
Department:
Payton Mathau China, the US and their coming
conflict
Business Executive:
Five things John Lewis taught us
Roseline Okayo
about getting in “good trouble”
Photography:
Victor Adar 14 | SPECIAL REPORT
NLM Library
Courtesy Maraga’s bombshell: why Uhuru
Administration: should disregard CJ’s counsel
Samah Hassan Cash transfers can help refugees,
Fatma Yusuf
Opening Power but they also carry risks. Insights
from Kenya
Printing:
Emirates Printing Press, LLC, Statement: relations Has the global refugee crisis
contributed to an upsurge in violent
Dubai, UAE
extremism?
Distribution: How US abortion gag rule will affect
The Newspoint – TNP health services in Kenya
44 | BUSINESS
Africa has a growing food security
problem: why it can’t be fixed
without proper data
African Banks under Pressure to
Accelerate Digital Transformation
African Nation-
and or transmitted or stored in any way or Technology investments for law
form, electronically or otherwise, without the firms post-COVID
T
Harlan F. Stone, the 12th Chief Justice of
here are many duties impli- the United States, where we so often look
cated in the concept of public to for inspiration and precedent, said, “I
responsibility. Members of have no patience with the complaint that
the Bar, by virtue of their criticism of judicial action involves any
role owe a responsibility to society, as lack of respect for the courts. When the
part of their role in improving the legal courts deal, as ours do, with great public
system. Lawyers are more than mere questions, the only protection against
citizens: they are officers of the court unwise decisions, and even judicial
and champions of justice. They owe usurpation, is careful scrutiny of their
responsibility to their clients, the legal action and fearless comment upon it.”
profession and system, and to society. And as Christopher Cross argues in
One of the most duty a lawyer owes his dissertation ‘Disrespect in the Court:
to society is to criticize the courts. By A Judge’s Perspective’ published in the
virtue of their work, lawyers are at a Denver Law Review:
vantage point to make informed criticism Without question, the judiciary is
of the courts and their decisions; this is accountable to the public, just as any
not just a responsibility and right – it is other public institution is accountable
an ethical obligation. Lawyers stand in to the public. If judges are arbitrary,
the unique position of spotting defects if their behaviour is improper, if their
in the justice system and speaking out Publicly responding to decisions are not well-grounded in con-
to prompt requisite action. criticism only serves to take stitutional and legal principles, if their
It is not the place of judges to respond away from the dignity of reasoning is faulty, the bar is in the best
to criticism against them, at any rate the court, and speaks of an position to observe and evaluate the
because such judicial response is a unwillingness to keep the open deficiencies, to inform the public and
disservice to public interest and casts mind essential to executing to suggest corrections. When lawyers
aspersions to their hallowed role – the judicial role. engage in criticism of the courts for
exception being when malicious and constructive and positive purposes,
false statements are made against judg- grounded in good faith and reason, the
es, or when there is manifestly disruptive judiciary is strengthened, the rule of law
or contemptuous acts in court, which decisions or judges for fear of reprisal is reinforced and the public duty of the
must never be countenanced. Publicly antagonisms. But the general public often bar is performed.
responding to criticism only serves to looks up to lawyers to condemn legal and To criticize judges and speak against
take away from the dignity of the court, judicial malpractices or tendencies that judicial overreach is not to scandalize
and speaks of an unwillingness to keep they see departing from best practice courts. The judiciary is a governance
the open mind essential to executing or traditions. And for judges to speak institution, and an institution of gov-
judicial role. against what it should encourage and ernance must needs be open to public
Traditionally, there has been is a re- protect is to fail in its role. scrutiny and criticism. (
luctance by the bar to criticize specific Justice David Brewer said, “It is a
RESETTING
THE CLOCK
RE
CAPTU
STATE
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REPORT
F
ew research findings could be The report identifies many significant
more topically and critically dimensions of both consensus and polar-
important than any bearing on ity, including several that bear directly
the question of to what extent on the varied resilient and/or fragile
a country’s peoples consider themselves condition of African states themselves.
bound together as one political commu- Specifically, this report, combined, with
nity, i.e., the nation-state in which they data from earlier Afrobarometer’s sixth
hold their citizenship. Available evidence and seventh-round surveys, respectively
has surfaced of severe, even dangerous, in 2011-13 and 2016-18, present evidence
polarization in so many countries around both of sustained commitments by citi-
the globe. Further, at least a steady in- zens to membership in their respective
cremental decline in democratic global nation-states, arbitrarily configured as
democratic practice over the last fifteen they have always been, but also disturb-
years, including in sub-Saharan Africa, ing indications that these commitments
is doubly worrisome. The incremental have been under significant strain over
resurgence of authoritarian political at least the past decade. For Kenya, in
behaviour and democratic decline it particular, the new and the older reports
reflects is unwelcome. are significant because they span the
But more deeply worrisome is the fact decade since the country’s passage
that the viability of democracy in a coun- of its model and very hard-won 2010
try requires that competitors for power democratic Constitution.
also share consensus on fundamental One of the most telling measures of
rules of the game for their competi- African citizens’ shared commitment to
tion, thereby signalling their consent continued membership in their nation-
to sharing membership in the states in state political communities after six Afrobarometer staff during the event.
which they find themselves. The fragil- decades of independence, in most cases,
ity of most sub-Saharan African states is the extent to which they feel complete,
warns inter alia that the weakness of that or at least predominant, commitment to ally cultivated, not just presumed. I think
consensus and, therefore, the potential that community as distinct from residual it fair to credit nationalist movements
for serious polarization on divisive issues of predominant commitment to their for independence from colonial rule
threatens to tear dangerously at this pre-independence, pre-colonial ethnic with giving those ethnic communities
necessary residual consensus. communities. A consequence of the reasons to be governed together in the
So, it is particularly timely that Af- arbitrariness of colonially established independent states they established. As
robarometer has just published Ties that country political boundaries has been an aside, Ethiopia is of particular inter-
Bind: Evidence of Unity and Division in that consent of pre-colonial ethnic com- est in this regard because, as a former
34 African Countries based on its eighth munities, or parts of those communities, empire, it never experienced any such
round of citizen surveys in 2019-21 in 34 to share membership in those arbitrarily integrating political movement, raising
African countries. configured states has had to be continu- the stakes for the country’s future in its
NEWS • PORTRAIT •
OPINION • NEWS OF Bar take on Chief
THE WORLD • THE BIG
INTERVIEW Justice Koome over
'outrageous' rules
T
he caution by Chief bans predicting the outcome of
Justice Martha Koome the petition until judgment is
during the BBI judg- delivered. Sub-rule 5 declares
ment against the use of social that a breach of the rule shall
media by Advocates appearing amount to contempt of court.
before the Supreme Court was, The amendment has cause
after all, not an idle threat. an uproar among a section of
On May 05, 2022, the CJ fol- Advocates, and this saw the
lowed through her warning President of the Law Society
with new rules ostensibly made schedule an urgent meeting
to eliminate or minimize what with the CJ to deliberate on
the court views as unethical the matter.
behavior. Through Legal Notice
No.79 of 2022, the CJ amended Rule unconstitutional
rule 18 of the Supreme Court Many people have ques-
(Presidential Election Petition) tioned the place of sub judice
Rules, 2017 by inserting sub- rule within a transformative
No Internet
shutdown during
polls, government
assures
A
scores were switched and now
ll may not be well at position. An IEBC insider said the names were shared with Mr Sunkuli and Ms Kariuki
the Independent Elec- the Chebukati group see the the political parties behind were tied at the top.
toral and Boundaries new commissioners as a dis- the new commissioners’ backs, While some commissioners
Commission amid allegations ruption. They were appointed causing a major clash. When pushed for the commission
of a rift between commission- when the commission had the four new commissioners plenary to appoint Mr Sunkuli,
ers, which could impact the awarded or was on the verge learnt of what had happened, others were taking none of that
conduct of the August 9 elec- of awarding tenders for stra- they confronted Chebukati resulting in a stalemate which
tions. tegic election materials such who mumbled a convoluted, persists. Bitten once again,
With just over two months as technology, logistics and unconvincing explanation. some of the commissioners
to the August 9 elections, the ballot papers. According to Chebukati, the have even opposed letting Mr
commission has been hit by But to their advantage, the appointment of returning of- Sunkuli continue to hold the
divisions pitting the three com- recently appointed commis- ficers is a role for the com- office in an acting capacity.
missioners who have been sioners are in the majority out mission secretariat, not com- The terms of Mr Chebukati,
there the longest, namely of the seven commissioners. missioners. An IEBC insider Prof Guliye and Mr Molu will
chairman Wafula Chebukati, Two recent incidents have told the Nairobi Law Monthly be expiring in early 2023, just
Prof Abdi Guliye and Boya brought the divisions to the that the issue of appointment a few months after the General
Molu, and the four who were fore, as the two factions battle. of returning officers raised Election. That means that it is
appointed in September 2021, The first incident that is now in temperatures so much as some Ms Cherera, Mr Wanderi, Ms
namely vice chairperson Ju- the public domain concerned commissioners threatened to Masit and Mr Nyang’aya who
liana Cherera, Francis Wan- the appointment of returning go public. will be around in the coming
deri, Irene Masit, and Justus officers in April. At the ple- The appointment of return- years until replacements for
Nyang’aya. nary, the commission’s high- ing officers had also caused a the three outgoing commis-
The Nairobi Law Monthly un- est policy-making body, the clash between Chebukati and sioners are appointed. The
derstands that the Chebukati commissioners had agreed former CEO Ezra Chiloba in four recently appointed com-
group, using their experience that the draft list of returning their long-running feuds. Back missioners will also, therefore,
and association with secre- officers would be circulated then, Chebukati dismissed the take the lead in conducting the
tariat staff, have been side- to them for their input before list that Chiloba had made of post-election evaluation as well
lining the recently appointed the same could be shared with returning officers. as initiating the boundaries
commissioners in key decision political parties. Then there is the issue re- review, expected to kick off
making, resulting in fierce op- But that was never to be as garding the recruitment of sometime in 2023.. (
COMEBACK
REPORT
T ransparency International
last month released its latest
annual Corruption Perception Index
5. Democratic Republic of Congo:
The DRC has a corruption
perception index score of 19.
to ‘incite and hoodwink’ the
Masai electorate using the
Mau Forest eviction issue.
ultimately be concluded.
“Because we have con-
cluded the Mau issue what
report. The report showed that 6. Burundi: This East African Ruto stated that the gov- is left is the Rose Farm and
90% of the 180 countries surveyed country also has a corruption ernment evictions in 2019 is here in Kedong Farm. This
scored below 50. Interestingly, 44 perception index score of 19. no longer political fodder as is so that the initial owners
of these countries with very low 7. Chad: Chad has a corruption leaders traverse in search of the land property will be
corruption index scores are in Africa. perception index score of 20. of votes. given back their land and the
Across the continent, corruption 8. Sudan: Has a corruption Raila is on record of taking government will pay for that.
is fuelled by a number of factors perception index score of 20. credit over the Mau evictions That property will go back to
such as authoritarianism, political/ 9. Comoros: This island nation’s saying that his handshake the Maasai people,” Ruto said.
institutional instability and various corruption perception index with President Uhuru Kenyat- “Please, we are tired of your
forms of security challenges caused score is also 20. ta is what made it possible. incitement. Look for another
by violent conflicts and terrorism. 10. Guinea Bissau: Has a “I want to tell the kitendwali business and agenda,” he
Transparency International uses corruption perception index man (Raila odinga) because added.
the corruption perception index to score of 21. it seems he is confused. Us The eviction done in 2019
rank countries around the world on a 11. Congo: Has a corruption people in Narok have already saw the government reclaim
scale of zero to 100; with zero being perception index score of 21. concluded the Mau matter. over 22,000 hectares of land
the most corrupt and 100 being the 12. Eritrea: Has a corruption You, kitendawili man, look for in the area.
least corrupt. The index has been perception index score of 22. another business and pledge. After the eviction, Ruto is
tracking public sector corruption 13. Zimbabwe: Has a corruption Issues of Narok and Mau we said to have bought a section
across the world since 1995. perception index score of 23. have concluded,” said Ruto. of the homeless evictees a to-
Below are Africa’s most corrupt 14. Nigeria: Africa’s most populous The United Democratic tal of three acres in Tendwet,
countries based on the latest country has a corruption Alliance (UDA) presidential Olmekenyu and Sagamian
ranking: perception index score of 24. candidate says all that is left and built them temporary
15. Central African Republic: Has houses.
1. South Sudan: This country a corruption perception index The Mau forest eviction
has a corruption perception score of 24. made Odinga a darling of the
index score of 11, the lowest 16. Guinea: Has a corruption 22,000 Narok Maasai community
in the world. perception index score of 25. Acres of the while it drew an edge be-
2. Somalia: This country has a 17. Moza m b i q u e : H a s a Mau Complex tween him and the Kalenjin
corruption perception index corruption perception index reclaimed so far. community.
score of 13. score of 26. Mau Forest Complex is a
3. Libya: This country has a 18. Madagascar: Has a corruption water tower for 10 million Ke-
corruption perception index perception index score of 26. nyans. But illegal settlement
score of 17.
4. Equatorial Guinea: This
19. Uganda: Has a corruption
perception index score of 27.
107,000 and deforestation have de-
stroyed 24 percent, or 107,000
Acres of forest cover
country also has a corruption 20. Cameroon: Has a corruption destroyed over a 20- hectares (264,000 acres), of
perception index score of 17. perception index score of 27. ( year period. its trees over 20 years. (
PUBLIC SCRUTINY
CJ Koome must
revoke her ill-advised
gag rules
The chief Justice, through Legal Notice No 79 of
April 12, 2022, has barred the expression of opinion
by litigants, advocates and their agents on conduct,
proceedings and Judgments of the Court in
presidential election petitions
T
hrough Legal Notice No 79 of Chief Justice to whittle down gains made
April 12, 2022, and published towards attaining an independent but
on May 5, 2022, Chief Justice accountable judiciary for several reasons.
Martha Koome amended Rule First, it is deceitful of the Chief Justice to
18 of The Supreme Court (Presidential claim that Advocates are not represented
Election Petition) Rules, 2017. The amend- in the Supreme Court Technical Rules
ment bars the expression of opinion by Committee. At the request of the office of
litigants, their advocates and advocates’ the Chief Justice made on March 19, 2021,
agents on the merit, demerit or prediction the Law Society of Kenya appointed Mr
of the outcome of a petition challenging Ahmednasir Abdullahi SC and Ms Julie
the election of the President of the Re- Soweto to the Committee. The office she
public of Kenya. holds cannot permit Chief Justice Martha
In reaction to an uproar by Advocates, Koome to lie. It is gross misconduct.
the Chief Justice claimed that the Court did Second, contempt of Court before the has no place in Kenya’s jurisprudence. A
not consult Advocates about the amend- Supreme Court is an offence created by reading of Articles 1, 10, 20(3) (b) and (c),
ment because they are not represented in Parliament in terms of Section 28 of the 159(1) and 259 of The Constitution of Kenya
the Supreme Court Technical Rules Com- Supreme Court Act. The Chief Justice are sufficient for that purpose. For these
mittee. The Chief Justice stated that the does not have the power to make laws: reasons, Legal Notice No 79 of 2022, dated
concern by Advocates would be discussed legislation or subsidiary. April 12, 2022, is null and void ab Initio.
at a Bar-Bench meeting on June 2, 2022. Further, subsidiary legislation cannot Third, the action by the Chief Justice
The retrogressive, manifestly unlawful prescribe penal offences of otherwise is indicative of her intemperate charac-
and unconstitutional action by the Chief lawful actions under the Bill of Rights. ter, a vice inconsistent with the holder
Justice must be examined. The error and/ This is elementary law. of such high office. It is a vice inherent
or mischief on the part of the Chief Justice Freedom of expression is guaranteed in the person of Chief Justice Martha
must be contextualised, highlighted and under Article 33 of The Constitution of Koome. It first manifested on April 30,
deprecated. This is important as there Kenya. The common law extinct relic of 2021, when she threatened to sue the
is an apparent deliberate resolve by the sub-/oc/ice evident in the amendment President of the Law Society of Kenya for
caution by John Locke in Two Treatises is to judge cases. That he does in open will remember that, from the nature of our
of Government: Court, and when he makes his decisions, office, we cannot reply to their criticisms.
As usurpation is the exercise of power he publicly gives his reasons for them. We cannot enter into public controversy.
which another hath a right to, so tyranny Everything is there for public scrutiny, Still less into political controversy. We
is the exercise of power beyond right, and there is no real point to be served by must rely on our conduct itself to be its
which nobody can have a right to; and any further explication. own vindication.
this is making use of the power anyone The Chief Justice and Judges in Kenya The conclusion by The Master of The
has in his hands, not for the good of those must heed the following advice of Lord Rolls — Lord Dyson in his article, Criticis-
who are under it, but for his own private, Denning in R v Commissioner of Police, ing Judges: Fair Garner or Off-Limited,
separate advantage. Ex Parte Blackburn (No 2) [1968] 2 Q B 150: is befitting to end the list of reference
The Chief Justice should desist from us- Let me say at once that we will never use materials for the Chief Justice. Apt is the
ing her tyrannical abuse of administrative this jurisdiction to uphold our own dignity. statement that:
and judicial powers for her own advantage. That must rest on surer foundations. Nor 81. In my opinion, it is time for judges (if
Second, the Chief Justice must heed will we use it to suppress those who speak they have not already done so) to accept
the admonition against interference with against us. We do not fear criticism, nor these changes brought about by shiNs
liberties as propounded by Charles de do we resent it. in our culture, our constitution, and our
Secondat, Baron de Montesquieu in The For there is something far more impor- technology. In my view, judges’ reasoned
Spirit of Laws in the following words: decisions should be open to public debate
In democracies, the people seem to act and scrutiny. Our courts are open and free,
as they please, but political liberty does I am mindful of the profiling and the media perform a valuable job in
not consist of unlimited freedom. In gov- I will receive from the CJ and our democracy of reporting the courts and
ernments, that is, in societies directed by a few Judges. Like Sebastian the Justice System to the broader public. I
laws, liberty can consist only in the power Rudd, whose experience hope that the debate should be reasoned
of doing what we ought to will and is not is chronicled in ‘Part One: and based on the evidence. And what is not
being constrained to do what we ought Contempt in The Rogue fair or reasonable is to impugn the motives
not to will. Lawyer’ by John Grisham, I of judges or ascribe them to prejudices.
Third is the counsel on self-restraint am okay. Just as F Lee Bailey 82. Judges must expect criticism and,
upon Judges in matters in which they are first found himself isolated where appropriate, they must offer a ro-
interested, underscored by B O Nwabueze for taking similar action bust response. This response should take
in Constitutionalism in the Emergent but vindicated by history as the form of a well-organised, measured,
States in these words: documents in ‘Chapter VI: institutional reply.
Whilst, admittedly, judges may not be When the Defender Stands I am mindful of the profiling I will receive
entirely devoid of self-interest in the sub- Accused in The Defense Never from the Chief Justice and a few Judges.
ject matter of a legislative act — for no Rests’, I will not rest. It must be Like Sebastian Rudd, whose experience
human procedure is ever wholly neutral done. is chronicled in ‘Part One: Contempt in
- yet this impartiality serves at once as a The Rogue Lawyer’ by John Grisham, I
safeguard against the possible danger or tant at stake. It is no less than freedom of am okay. Just as F Lee Bailey first found
arbitrariness on the part of the judges in speech itself. It is the right of every man, himself isolated for taking similar action
the discharge of their interpretative func- in Parliament or out of it, in the Press or but vindicated by history as documents
tion. It is reinforced for this purpose by the over the broadcast, to make fair comment, in ‘Chapter VI: When the Defender Stands
doctrine of precedent and the tradition of even outspoken comment, on matters of Accused in The Defense Never Rests’, I
self-restraint. public interest. Those who comment can will not rest. It must be done.
Writing about Judges and the Media, Sir deal faithfully with all done in a court of Chief Justice Martha Koome, you cannot
Daryl Dawson advised as follows: justice. They can say that we are mistaken have Chief Justice Hancox for a mentor.
There is a substantial reason why, to and our decisions erroneous, whether Not today or ever. Revoke Legal Notice
my mind, judges do not allow themselves they are subject to appeal or not. All we No 79 of April 12, 2022. (
to be interviewed. The function of a judge would ask is that those who criticise us
1.82
The estimated amount
THE BIG Kenyans transacted
through mobil money
NUMBER in the firat quarter of
2022
Sh
www.nairobilawmonthly.com
trillion The Nairobi Law Monthly
June 2022 • 13
Review
ANALYSIS AND CRITIQUE
K
P E R I S CO P E enya is no stranger to highly
contested elections, including
electoral violence
legitimate government with the right to
exercise power and the ability to meet
the needs of all citizens.
As Kenya heads to the polls in August
2022, it’s important to consider what role
BY J O H N M U KU M M BA KU the Judiciary will play in ensuring that
the elections are free, fair, and credible.
As a legal expert and economist who
studies the rule of law in Africa, I argue that
Kenyans need to work towards ensuring
both individual and institutional judicial
independence.
The former implies that individual
judges can decide cases without interfer-
ence. The latter means that courts are
independent of the executive and legisla-
tive branches of government.
For the courts to perform their job effec-
tively, including resolving election-related
conflicts, they must be independent.
Additionally, Kenyans must have trust,
confidence, and faith in their judgments.
Unlike the executive, the Judiciary
cannot send soldiers out to enforce its
orders, nor can it deny development aid
to a community to gain support for its
decisions. The court’s power is derived
from its legitimacy.
This comes from a general belief and
understanding that adhering to the court’s
rulings is the right thing to do. To safeguard
this legitimacy, judges must function and
be seen as officials of the Judiciary and
not as representatives of the ethnic group
to which they belong.
Judicial wins
Kenya is a young democracy, and so is its
Judiciary. However, the country’s courts
have exhibited a significant level of ma-
turity and independence in recent years. re-elected president with 54.27% of the arbiter of elections-related conflicts and
This was evidenced by the supreme votes. This was against opposition leader bringing finality to elections, there remain
court’s unprecedented decision after Raila Odinga’s 44.74%. many challenges to democracy.
the disputed 2017 presidential election The top election official at the time, Wa- These include the politicisation of eth-
results. A six-judge bench annulled the fula Chebukati, and several international nicity. This is evidenced by the pressure
incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta’s observers argued that the election was imposed on judicial and other officials
win. The court ordered a new election in free, fair, and credible. The opposition to act in favour of one ethnic group or
60 days, which Kenyatta won. cried foul and said the election had been another.
In 2021, the high court intervened in a marred by irregularities.
push fronted by the government to amend There were fears of a repeat of the Ethnicity and Kenya’s struggle
the constitution. It declared the process ethnic-induced violence that accompanied for peace
unconstitutional. the 2007 elections. Kenya is a state that was founded by
Reflective of a country with increas- Kenyatta encouraged the opposition bringing together distinct groups. Each
ingly strong democratic institutions and to take their concerns to the courts. It had its own customs, cultures and tradi-
an independent judiciary, Kenyatta ac- did, and on 1 September 2017, the court tions, and laws and institutions.
cepted the court’s ruling. The govern- made its historic ruling, annulling the The challenge the country faces today
ment, nevertheless, decided to move to presidential election results. is how to make this forced marriage work
the appeals court and the supreme court, The real lesson from the 2017 supreme to achieve peaceful coexistence, wealth
as required by the constitution. The two creation, and inclusive development.
courts upheld the initial ruling. Citizens continue to vote largely for
Kenya’s Judiciary, however, needs to Our country's democracy people from their own ethnic group. This
continue to expand its infrastructure and cannot function effectively politicisation of ethnicity has created
build professional capacities. This includes if its public officials, includ- many challenges to Kenya’s efforts to
setting up an effective system to finance ing its judges, serve as rep- deepen, entrench and institutionalise
the Judiciary so that it isn’t held hostage resentatives of their ethnic democracy.
to changes in the country’s politics. Op- groups. In performing their First, it allows members of the country’s
portunistic politicians shouldn’t be able jobs, civil servants and politi- five largest ethnic groups to dominate
to punish the courts for legally sound but cians must be accountable national governance.
unpopular decisions. to the constitution and the Second, it forces political elites to seek
An efficient, equitable, and accessible people of Kenya. consent from their ethnic bases instead
justice system is the foundation of a de- of developing more broadly appealing
mocracy based on the rule of law. programmes.
Third, it puts pressure on civil servants
The courts and election-related
conflicts 54% and elected officials to act as ethnic rather
than country representatives.
Kenya’s 2010 constitution was designed to President Uhuru Kenyatta's Kenya’s democracy cannot function
help “reconcile a deeply divided nation”. victory margin effectively if its public officials, including
It provided mechanisms for citizens to in the 2017 elections. its judges, serve as representatives of
peacefully resolve election-related con- their ethnic groups. In performing their
flicts and bring finality to them. court decision was not that it granted the jobs, civil servants and politicians must
The constitution grants citizens the opposition another chance to capture the be accountable to the constitution and
power to challenge the election of a presi- presidency or deprived the incumbent of the people of Kenya.
dent in the supreme court. his electoral win. It was that it reaffirmed It is only through such an approach to
This court also determines the validity the country’s move towards constitution- public service that citizens can trust their
of the presidential election. Its capacity alism, peaceful resolution of conflict and institutions and leaders, including the de-
to do so has been successfully tested. the rule of law. cisions they make. ( (The Conversation)
Official results from the August 2017 Although Kenya’s Judiciary has proven — Author is a professor at Webber State
elections showed Kenyatta had been itself capable of serving as an effective University.
liberation credentials
were born between 1990 and 1998 and
had not formed cognitive abilities in the
akin to flogging a
period of the second liberation struggle
to appreciate the sacrifices made by Raila
Odinga and his running mate and many
F
three successive General Elections that
or the discerning Kenyan, it is these credentials on a presidential ticket brought and sustained Uhuru Kenyatta
common knowledge that while should win an election early in the morning. on the throne, did not help much. They
all other parts of the country The duo has packaged and taken this cemented in the Mt. Kenya youth the
mattered, the election for the record to the people in their campaigns, belief that Raila Odinga is a bad, dangerous
two leading contenders would be fought and therein lies the conundrum that may human being that should be kept away
and won in the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region, derail their presidential quest. from the throne.
which, having produced Kenya’s last two According to the last population and The liberation struggle message the
presidents back to back, has no candidate census results of 2019, Kenya is a country Azimio duo are flaunting will not count
in the impending presidential election. of youth. Of the 47.6 million population, 75 for much in this election, given that it
As far as running mates go, Martha percent, or 35.7 million people, are under carries no currency with the youth who
Karua is fearless and intelligent. Together 35 years. The youth population of those form a huge demographic in this elec-
with her presidential ticket flag bearer, ranging between 18 and 34 constitutes 29 tion. With one month to go, the earlier
they have an impressive record as human percent of the general population, about the Azimio team realizes this, the better.
rights defenders. Their roles in the fight 13.8 people, which makes for a huge con- They must come up quickly with a theme
for the second liberation, the struggle of stituency given that the total number of strong on economic growth, job creation,
the 80s and 90s against the dictatorial registered voters in 2071, according to the public health, security, education, sports,
regime of KANU and President Moi, is IEBC, was about 19.6 million. and technological and infrastructural
something to write home about. Ideally, A person who is 18 years today and advancements. (
A
What dangers does this pose for our
s we head towards the August are applied and the capacity of institutions democracy? First, our rule of law system
General Election, indications for applying them such as the judiciary. has failed to send the rich criminals in our
are that it will perhaps be the The substantive type is perhaps the most society to jail. Instead, it actively facilitates
country’s most permissive important, given its focus on the outcomes their infiltration into our political system.
election in as far as the rule of law is con- of the rule of law, such as actually keeping Once they get into the political system,
cerned. Citing the 2013 High Court ruling criminals in jail. they use their political offices to weaken
which allowed the joint candidature of Considering what is happening in our further the rule of law set up, making it
Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto in that political sphere, it shows that our rule of unable to deliver fairness and justice.
year’s election, even as the duo was facing law set up is clearly biased towards pro- In this way, our political system moves
charges at the ICC, the IEBC has already moting the formal and procedural types of further away from the democratic ideals
proclaimed that it has no capacity to bar the rule of law, while conveniently avoiding of liberty, justice, and equity.
candidates with questionable records of the substantive type. The dilemma then Secondly, because the rule of law set
integrity from the election. becomes why we ended up with formal up favours the rich, it leads to a deepen-
This trend has opened up opportunity and procedural types as more dominant ing of socio-economic inequalities in the
for any candidate, despite their criminal than the substantive type of the rule of law. country. This in turn creates doubt in the
background, to run for public office. Even Perhaps the best way to respond to this political system, with ordinary people
those who had been impeached in previous questioning why democracy only works
tenures as governors have made a come- for a certain group and not the rest. This
back. And none other than Fred Matiang’i, Actors in that set-up, like then offers favourable conditions for the
the Minister for Interior, has warned that the EACC, ODPP and the rise of demagogues who weaken further
we are headed towards a situation where Judiciary, must guard more the system, and who are likely to roll back
candidates with questionable integrity than just the formalities the democratic liberties we enjoy in the
may win up to half the electoral seats on and procedures of law, to name of correcting the socio-economic
offer in the election, with serious conse- guarantee our liberties inequalities.
quences for our governance institutions. and those of our future To avoid ending up with a fragile demo-
What is happening is a frightening ex- generations. cratic political system which can easily
ample of how casually we are treating the dilemma is to adopt Jurgen Habermas‘ be rolled back due to socio-economic
rule of law in the country. This may even- Critical Legal Theory, which asks people inequalities, our rule of law set-up must
tually have devastating consequences for to identify who benefits most from the focus on the substantive type of the rule
our democracy. Legal scholars categorize dominant type of the rule of law set up of law. Actors in that set-up, like the EACC,
rule of law into three major types, namely that society adopts. So, the question be- the DPP and the Judiciary, must view
formal, procedural, and substantive. The comes, who benefits most from Kenya’s themselves as guardians of more than just
formal type deals with the setting up of convenient avoidance of the substantive the formalities and procedures of law, to
laws in ways that make them impartial; the type of the rule of law? This is a question guarantee our liberties and those of our
procedural type focuses on how the laws best answered by our legal scholars. future generations. (
F
inancial sanctions tend to
hurt both the sanctioned and
the sanctioner, but they also
threaten to hurt countries that
are financially interlinked with the sanc-
tioned country. Recent sanctions levied
on Russia by the United States and the
European Union in response to Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine are disrupting global
trade and financial networks worldwide,
including Africa. The sanctions prevent
US and eurozone banks, their foreign af-
filiates, and Russian banks based in the US
and eurozone countries from facilitating
dollar and euro transactions on behalf of
Russian entities. The problem for Africa
is that roughly 95 percent of all trade is
invoiced in these two sanctioned cur-
rencies alone. A vast majority of Africa’s
Sh1.6 trillion trade with Russia is likely
denominated in these two currencies.
In response to Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine in early 2022, the US and EU
adopted significant and largely unprec-
edented financial sanctions against Russia.
More specifically, on February 24 and 25,
the US and the EU levied sanctions on
Russian banks that targeted correspon-
dent and payable-through accounts. The
sanctioned banks account for most of
Russia’s financial capital and are heavily
exposed to western financial systems. US
sanctions on these banks also prohibit
American citizens from dealing with these
banks and their subsidiaries anywhere
in the world. US President Joe Biden (left)
and Russia's Vladmir Putin.
On February 28, the US and EU banned
transactions with the Russian Central Bank other countries— including Canada, the reduced trade between Iran and Africa,
and the National Wealth Fund, Russia’s United Kingdom, Australia, South Korea, even though the latter did not apply any
sovereign wealth fund. On March 1, at and Japan—have levied similar sanctions sanctions on the former.
the behest of the US and the EU, SWIFT on Russia. Western sanctions on Russia threaten
disconnected seven Russian financial To lessen the blow of the sanctions and to interrupt trade between Russia and
institutions (and three Belarusian finan- prop up the ruble’s value, Russia passed Africa. At around Sh1.6 trillion per annum,
cial institutions three weeks later) from capital control measures. Russians are Russia-Africa trade makes up a rela-
its network. On April 12, the US and EU now forbidden, for example, from trans- tively small share of Africa’s total trade.
banned direct or indirect trade in invest- ferring money to foreign bank accounts. Imported goods from Russia amount to
ment services, including securities and Banks and brokers are prohibited from Sh1.4 trillion, accounting for just 2.6 per-
other money-market instruments. Many executing cash-based foreign exchanges cent of Africa’s imports. In comparison,
for dollars and euros. the roughly Sh233 billion annual exports
These actions could pose significant from Africa to Russia account for less
difficulties to Russia’s ability to conduct than 1 percent of Africa’s exports. Trade
trade invoiced in dollars and euros. These with Russia can account for a rather large
currencies maintain a dominant role in share of a given country’s overall trade.
facilitating international financial trans- Moreover, since mostly African imports
actions and global trade mechanics, ac- from Russia dominate Russia-Africa trade,
counting for 90 percent of import invoicing import duties on Russian goods can locally
and 88 percent of export invoicing. These account for a non-negligible share of trade
shares are even higher for Africa: more revenue in certain countries. More im-
than 94 percent of African imports and mediately, key exports from Russia, such
more than 95 percent of African exports as wheat to North Africa and Ethiopia or
are denominated in either dollars or euros. armaments to the Central African Republic
These sanctions alone interrupt three of and Mali, could have local, acute effects,
the four primary ways Russian companies some of which might be felt more in terms
finance trade-related transactions with of welfare than finance.
Africa. Trade may nonetheless continue According to the United Nations Con-
to be carried out chiefly in dollars and eu- ference on Trade and Development, 32
ros. Still, in that case, Russian companies percent (Sh431billion) of Africa’s wheat
would need to turn to secondary sources imports from 2018 to 2020 came from Rus-
(interbank markets, money markets, debt sia.8 It should come as no surprise, then,
capital markets and derivative markets) that African countries have already seen
or tertiary sources (cross-currency swaps) the price of wheat explode since Russia’s
to raise enough dollars and euros to pay invasion of Ukraine. As of late April, global
for goods. Russian companies may need to wheat prices remained more than 25 per-
resort to these means to receive payments cent higher than their pre-invasion levels.
denominated in dollars and euros, and To estimate the degree of these disrup-
these transactions may require a foreign tions to African trade, we rely on several
exchange broker to complete, as the vol- data sets. Chiefly, we rely on data from
ume of African imports is relatively large Boz et al. (2020), which has unilateral trade
and the transactions were not expected. invoicing data for 14 African countries.
Notably, other sanctions may further To date, this is the most representative
interrupt how Russia and Africa finance data set assembled on the currency of
trade. The Russian financial institutions invoicing for Africa. We combine trade
disconnected from SWIFT are not only invoicing data for these countries (32
blocked from secure telecommunications percent of Africa’s GDP) with UNCTAD
via SWIFT with American and eurozone bilateral trade data between Africa and
banks but all banks, including foreign Russia and UNCTAD’s Trade Analysis
banks based outside the US and eurozone. Information System (TRAINS) database.
Iran is a case in point: SWIFT sanctions on The latter database, which contains import
Iranian banks between 2012 and since 2019 duties by product and country, contains
Sh1.6t
product) with Russia invoiced in dollars
and euros mirrors its share with the rest
of the world (for Africa, these figures are
94 and 95 percent, respectively). Although At around Sh1.6 trillion
per annum, Russia-
several other foreign currencies mediate
Africa trade makes up
African trade, such as the British pound a relatively small share
sterling and the Chinese renminbi, neither of Africa’s total trade
African currencies nor rubles are popular
currencies to conduct trade because of
the risk of exposure, namely, the cost of
holding the currencies when they lose
value. This makes foreign exchange fees 80%
between them expensive and uncompeti- Dollars and euros
tive compared to dollars and euros. accounted for nearly
Furthermore, let’s assume that all Rus- 80 percent of all
sia-Africa trade invoiced in dollars or euros foreign reserves.
risks being disrupted by these and related
sanctions. We believe that the share of
Russia-Africa trade conducted in dollars
and euros serves as a lower bound for the not likely to appeal to African trade trade revenue disrupted from import tariff
share of trade disrupted for our sample: partners. lines is likely very close to the total trade
1. Dollars and euros are not the only cur- 4. The invoicing data from Africa are from revenue disrupted. In general, countries
rencies that carry sanctions. Russian 2018, but evidence suggests that the tend to derive most of their trade revenue
accounts and transactions in British share denominated in euros and dollars from import tariffs rather than export
sterling, Japanese yen, Australian dol- has only risen since 2018. tariffs. Additionally, African imports
lars, and other commonly-used curren- 5. The situation is still changing on the from Russia account for 87 percent of
cies also faced sanctions. ground, meaning sanctions could ex- trade between the two parties. These
2. Trade would be denominated in local pand in severity and country coverage. reasons suggest that the trade revenue
currencies if exchange costs and foreign In mid-March, sanctions were expanded from export tariffs may be a tiny share
currency risks were higher than dealing to include Belarusian financial institutions. of the total trade revenue generated by
in local currencies. Yet, for the Russian Allies of Ukraine have warned that sanc- trade between Russia and Africa. As with
ruble and many African currencies, the tions could be imposed on China should disrupted trade, estimates for trade rev-
exchange costs and foreign currency it support Russia in its invasion. enue disruptions should be interpreted
risks could be quite high in normal times. Because TRAINS tariff data primar- as a lower bound for actual disruptions
3. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in Febru- ily covers tariffs on imports rather than to trade revenue for imports and exports
ary 2022, the ruble’s value has fluctuated exports, we are restricted to looking at denominated in all sanctioned currencies
tremendously, at one point losing nearly African trade revenue disruptions stem- (not only euros and dollars).
half its value. The ruble’s volatility is ming from import duties. In the end, the While most African countries tend to
invoice trade in dollars or euros, the vol- example, 59 percent of the projected eight farming inputs. Meanwhile, governments
ume of trade with Russia varies widely, percent of disrupted revenue is in weapon and philanthropic organizations may feel
which means there is wide variation import duties alone. In Egypt, vehicles and pressure to intervene with food subsidies
across countries in terms of the share of telecom equipment account for 21 and 12 and aid to alleviate food insecurity and
trade disrupted by sanctions. In Egypt, percent of disrupted revenue. Taxes on the unravelling of human development
for instance, we estimate at least four per- petroleum imports seem to generate a among vulnerable populations.
cent of trade is at risk of being disrupted, significant share of tax revenue in many The chaos in the oil market is a resource
whereas in Mauritius, this figure stands at countries for which we have data. In Sen- boom for Africa’s ten oil-producing coun-
just 0.1 percent. On average, we find that egal, petroleum duties account for nearly tries, including Algeria, Angola, and Nigeria.
sanctions threaten to disrupt at least 1.8 two-thirds of all trade revenue with Russia. However, the challenge of convincing
percent of African trade. parliaments to invest the windfalls in
Africa’s export portfolio with Russia Broader impacts of conflict and sustainable economic development rather
differs distinctly from its import portfolio, sanctions than an opportunity to delay urgently
meaning disruptions will impact some In the short term, the most devastating needed reforms remains. For oil importers,
goods more than others. Cereals will be trade-related impact for Africa will be however, the price hike is reminiscent of
the main import affected, accounting for the disruption to importing Russian and the fuel, food and financial crises of 2008-
35 percent of disrupted imports (Figure Ukrainian cereal grains. Russian food 2009, and the impact for these countries
5). Notably, a decline in cereal imports products are a leading staple of Africa’s may actually be worse this time around.
due to sanctions and rising food prices imports from the country, making up
stemming from supply reduction raise more than 5 percent of the continent’s Potential (or lack thereof) for a
concerns of food price hikes in Africa food imports. Disruptions to Africa’s new global reserve currency
and, thereby, general concerns for food food systems can inflate local food prices, Russian firms will eventually lack access
insecurity. In addition to cereal, petro- particularly in North Africa, where many to enough dollars and euros to continue
leum products and metals account for economies rely heavily on cereal imports. settling the same volume of transactions
17 and 12 percent of disrupted imports. Africa already has one of the highest food they did previously. At this point, African
A majority of disrupted exports will be insecurity rates globally, with 452 mil- businesses will face a choice in their
food-related items: Fruits and vegetables lion Africans enduring food insecurity. transactions with Russian firms: utilize
together account for nearly 50 percent of Coupled with Africa’s increased reliance alternative forms of currency or find other
disrupted exports, while coffee and tea are on imported staple foods over the years, business partners—the choice matters.
responsible for an additional 11 percent. any disturbance to Africa’s food system The latter option faces switching costs and
threatens the health and wellbeing of rising costs of doing business. The former
Estimates for disruptions to rev- African households. approach faces financial risks, including
enue Despite the relatively low level of ex- currency risks and exchange costs.
Estimates for disrupted trade revenue are ports to Russia, the overwhelming con- Suppose, for instance, that African
comparably high for some countries, even centration of African exports to Russia businesses choose the first option. The
relative to overall trade revenue. In Egypt, in the agricultural sector, mainly fruits most appealing alternatives to the dollar
more than Sh81 billion in import duties and vegetables, suggests trade interfer- or euro are perhaps the Japanese yen,
are at risk of disruption; similarly, more ence will be most pronounced among pound sterling, or Swiss francs—which
than five percent of all trade revenue of African farmers, agro-processors, and all carry sanctions prohibiting their use
Senegal’s import duties risk disruption. agro-businesses—whose need to find new by Russia. Of the unsanctioned curren-
Our analysis suggests that, for some markets will be time-sensitive given that cies, the ruble itself would certainly be an
countries, sanctions on Russia could food products are perishable. attractive option to Russian businesses.
cause upwards of 5 percent of all trade Due to ballooning fertilizer costs and However, it is unlikely that their African
revenue to be disrupted due to dollar/ record-high global food prices, we specu- counterparts would find it attractive. The
euro sanctions alone. This figure, which late net welfare losses for consumers and volatility and uncertainty surrounding
could fall in the tens of millions of dollars, agricultural producers, despite higher their ruble’s value would pose significant
is too small to take priority, yet too big to market prices, given their exposure to risks to financial institutions that would
dismiss entirely. higher operating costs. However, export- help settle transactions between Russia
Because import portfolios and cor- ers and agribusinesses may gain from the and Africa, and these risks would be
responding duties differ widely across volatility in global agricultural markets passed on to businesses in the form of
African countries, the trade revenue as they skirt direct exposure to the ex- higher exchange costs.
lost by import also differs. In Angola, for traordinary increases in the prices of key Another option is the Chinese renminbi.
BY JA N N I E R O S S O U W
I
nflation is a process of sustained
increases in the general price level
over a period of time, typically 12
months.
Inflation can be calculated for a coun-
try, for specific regions in a country and
for different income and demographic
groups, for instance, pensioners.
These different calculations are es-
sential because the spending patterns
of regions and groups differ. That means
that their rates of inflation also vary.
Therefore, each household needs to
understand its own inflation rate clearly.
Some countries allow for the develop-
ment of this improved understanding. For
example, South African households can
use an Internet tool such as the personal
inflation calculator of Statistics SA. A
personal inflation calculator, based on
household spending patterns, is also
available for the Euro area, Canada and
New Zealand.
The phrase describing inflation as
‘enemy number one’ is borrowed from
the research done by South African
businessman Dr Anton Rupert on the
worldwide inflation problem suffered
in the 1970s.
WEALTH VS. FINANCIAL HEALTH He described inflation this way due to
Inflation should be
its distortive impact on the economies of
countries and the wealth and financial
well-being of households.
viewed as public
But the word inflation has a much
earlier origin. Its first use was in the US
between 1830 and 1860, when the US
enemy number 1:
dollar started losing value.
In short, people experience inflation
as sustained price increases. Prices con-
here’s why
tinue to increase, and the same amount
of money buys less goods and services
over time.
Why is it so bad?
Inflation does not make people wealthy, even though Inflation is bad because people on fixed
governments and borrowers benefit from inflation. This incomes, such as pensioners, get poorer
is why the description that inflation is public enemy over time. The buying power of their
number 1 is so accurate. money is eroded.
A further problem is that borrowers
enjoy an advantage over savers. With
ECONOMIC INCLUSION
S
Ethnic poverty occurs when there is growth.
ub-Saharan African countries systemic poverty for an ethnic group. In addition, different ethnic groups
are the most ethnically diverse We reviewed the connection between don’t always agree on what goods and
in the world. Within each African ethnicity and poverty in a chapter of the services public money should be spent on.
country there are more eth- Encyclopaedia of the UN Sustainable Inadequate public spending contributes
nic groups than there are in most of Development Goals. to higher poverty.
the world’s countries. Goal 1 is to end poverty in all forms Differences and favouritism often make
In fact, the world’s 20 most ethnically everywhere and the encyclopaedia is it difficult to take inter-ethnic group action,
diverse countries are all African. the first comprehensive publication ad- such as addressing poverty. While the
An ethnic group is a social group that dressing the goals in an integrated way. poverty rate has been falling in Africa, it
shares a common and distinctive history, Our chapter provided an overview of has not fallen fast enough to keep up with
culture, region, religion or language. research on ethnic poverty in developing population growth.
The reason for this diversity in sub- and developed countries. The work for the encyclopaedia shows
Saharan African countries is chiefly that We focused on ethnic poverty because that African nations, among others, would
almost all of them were carved into colo- some people are more likely to be in pov- do well to consider including diverse
nial territories without regard to ethnic erty due to ethnic differences in educa- ethnic groups in transparent governance
boundaries. tion, employment, entrepreneurship, and structures.
The region also accounts for 40% of access to infrastructure.
the world’s extremely poor (around 276 Members of ethnic groups in power Poverty and inclusion
million people who survive on less than sometimes distribute resources to fel- The five countries with the lowest GDP
African leadership
in May suggested that 23.7 million people
were internally displaced as a result of
climate-related disasters worldwide, as
famine, terrorism,
experiencing stronger and more frequent
floods and droughts in recent years. It
climate change
is feared that climate-related shortages
could aggravate existing conflicts.
One glaring example is Cameroon, where
the scarce water resources in the country’s
W
far north region have pitted fishers and
hen African Union leaders changes of government on the Continent, farmers against one another, prompting
gathered last month for is a compelling and shared task for all the displacement of at least 100,000
an extraordinary summit stakeholders.” people inside Cameroon and beyond.
in the Equatorial Guinea The declaration lists some 28 steps to
capital, Malabo, they discussed challenges take towards this end, although several of War on Ukraine casts shadow on
ranging from terrorism to democratic them rather vague. They range from bet- Africa
governance and climate change. ter tackling social media disinformation, The summit also addressed the impact
“The African continent is the victim to developing “a comprehensive frame- Russia’s war on Ukraine has had on African
of cruel terrorist attacks perpetrated by work establishing different categories of countries. A drop in food aid and a sharp
groups such as Boko Haram, al-Shabab, sanctions that may be gradually applied” increase in food prices are taking their toll
Ansar al-Sunna, the Islamic State (IS), et to countries where coups take place, to on African refugees and forcibly displaced
cetera, et cetera,” Equatorial Guinea Presi- simply establishing “clear and precise individuals, threatening to further fuel
dent Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo standards that allow for a substantive intercommunal tensions.
on the second day of the summit on May assessment of member states’ constitu- The UN humanitarian office, OCHA, has
28, which focussed on terror threats and tional orders.” estimated that some 18 million Africans
evaluated existing response mechanisms. could face severe food insecurity in the
Parties also discussed necessary actions coming three months, particularly in sub-
and measures to strengthen the security Saharan Africa.
of African states facing terrorism and
A drop in food aid and a In a virtual address to the summit on
violent extremism.
sharp increase in food Friday, European Commission President
prices are taking their Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would
Unconstitutional changes to gov- toll on African refugees commit “further financial support to our
ernments and forcibly displaced African partners.” She said this would have
The AU assembly is currently consider- individuals, threatening to an “immediate focus” on food security and
ing at the recommendations put forth further fuel intercommunal a “long-term” focus on the “root causes
during the March AU Reflection Forum tensions. of insecurity.”
on “unconstitutional changes of govern- “Ukraine is the granary of the world. It
ment” in Africa. Climate issues challenging Africa alone exports half the world’s sunflower
Four members – Mali, Guinea, Burkina AU leaders also discussed the humani- oil and provides over half of the World
Faso and Sudan – are currently suspended tarian crises on the continent, further Food Programme’s wheat supply,” von der
from the AU following coups in those exacerbated by climate change. Leyen told the summit, adding that the
countries. Three of these changes of gov- UNHCR Assistant High Commissioner EU was also trying not to have an impact
ernment took place last year, and Burkina Raouf Mazou said in an address during on Russia’s food business with sanctions.
Faso’s in January this year. the summit that climate-related disasters Global wheat prices have risen by
AU leaders put off approving Accra in recent years have added to existing roughly one-third in 2022 alone.
Declaration, drafted at a meeting in March. population displacements caused by “The speed at which we act now will
This declaration says that to “prevent violence and conflict. determine the scale of the problem in a
and end any form of unconstitutional A 2021 report by the Internal Displace- few months,” von der Leyen said. (
BAROMETER
A poisoned
chalice: Uhuru’s
legacy
As his presidency winds down on the back of impressive infrastructure
achievements, it cannot escape notice that Kenya’s Chinese loans will
soon come to resemble Sri Lanka’s: unpayable and unserviceable.
BY P E T E R WA N YO N Y I
O
n May 17, Sri Lanka was down 2009 and ending the war, which had lasted over
to just one day’s supply of 25 years. But China was interested in more than
petrol. The country, beset just a government victory.
by debt and unable to afford Powerful empires need to dominate sea lanes
imports of fuel, food, cooking for trade and military projection. For this, they
gas, or anything else, was need geostrategic locations from which they can
in the grip of devastating deploy forces quickly, and deep-water ports
riots and protests, as irate where they can berth their navies. Countries that
citizens burnt government possess these features become highly coveted
vehicles and beat up govern- targets for ambitious empire-builders, and Sri
ment officials across the island. The island’s Lanka is no exception. From the mid-1600s to
worsening economic crisis turned deadly: an the early 1700s, the Dutch and Portuguese em-
MP was killed, ministers’ houses were torched, pires fought bitterly contested wars for control
and hundreds were injured as violence spread of Sri Lanka before the British Empire gained
across the island. control of the island and used it to guarantee
The older Rajapaksa was once the toast of its control of trade with the crown jewel in
the nation. Serving as President of Sri Lanka its empire, India. Later, as the British Empire
from 2005 to 2015, he led the country’s military waned, Sri Lanka gained independence – and
in their civil war against the secessionist Tamil was co-opted into the American camp during
Tigers. Rajapaksa’s forces became increasingly the Cold War, with China and the Soviet Union
ruthless in the war, and Western countries also continually vying for interest and control
condemned the violence against Tamil civil- of the island. The Soviet empire collapsed, the
ians that the military quickly gained notoriety Americans lost interest in the region, and a new
for. Starved of Western support and weapons, power arose that coveted Sri Lanka for its unique
Rajapaksa turned to China for military aid. The geographic features. That power was China.
Chinese came through for him, resulting in the Sri Lanka occupies a highly strategic location,
Sri Lankan army defeating the Tamil Tigers in straddling vital sea lanes that host numerous
sea trade routes. Nearly 70 percent of for yet more loans to avoid defaulting on
the world’s oil and over 50 percent of the the loans. China patiently dished out yet
world’s container shipments pass through more money, and Sri Lanka sunk deeper
Sri Lanka’s southern waters. Sri Lanka also into debt.
has many natural deep-water harbours By early 2022, Sri Lanka was in a bind.
that, if developed, can quickly become It needed to repay $7 billion in loans to
critical maritime hubs in the Indian Ocean China, but the country was broke. China
region, given Sri Lanka’s easy access and applied the squeeze, and Sri Lanka was
central location to the Middle East, East forced to hand over control of its assets
Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. – ports, airports, roads – to China. That
And so, as Rajapaksa celebrated his wasn’t enough, though, and Colombo was
victory over the Tamil Tigers, the Chinese forced to beg China for a restructuring of
showed up bearing gifts. Sri Lanka gorged its debt. China declined, and Sri Lanka ran
on hefty loans from the Chinese and set to the IMF for help. The IMF also declined,
about investing in impressive infrastruc- having been side-lined by Sri Lanka during
ture: $5 billion was splurged on a new its Chinese-loan boom years. The local on the island by sending in some form
port, a new airport, and broad highways currency plummeted, and inflation shot of a peacekeeping force. But what, you
cutting back and forth across the island. up: in March 2022, consumer prices rose wonder, does this have to do with Kenya
China attached no transparency or ac- by 19 percent. and Uhuru Kenyatta’s legacy?
countability conditions to the loans, and As imports became more and more Everything, as it turns out.
the Rajapaksa clan grew fat and wealthy expensive, fuel shortages became a daily Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidency has uncan-
off the Chinese largesse. Another $2 bil- occurrence. The country ran out of cooking nily mirrored that of Mahinda Rajapaksa.
lion of Chinese money went into setting gas, and widespread power outages cre- Uhuru’s economic platform is based on the
up a modern business hub near the port ated chaos. Food and medicines became same foundation as Rajapaksa’s: eschew-
of Colombo, which itself had received scarce, and violent street protests broke ing conditional Western loans and instead
hundreds of millions of dollars in Chinese out. The Rajapaksa clan had lost power going after China’s “easy money”. The
investment. China snapped up Sri Lanka’s after the 2015 presidential elections, when going has been good for Uhuru’s cronies,
debt whenever it could, and loaned Sri Mahinda lost to his former aide, Maithri- who have grown fat off the loans. Kenya
Lanka the money to repay interest on those pala Sirisena. But the clan had made a has built impressive infrastructure dur-
loans. Colombo’s exposure to China was comeback after his brother Gotabaya ing Uhuru’s presidency – everywhere one
so massive and apparent that it was used Rajapaksa won the presidency in 2019, looks, there are gleaming new railway sta-
to warn other countries bent on tapping helped in part by a spate of mysterious tions. Our main airport, JKIA, is now the
China’s bottomless pockets. bombings that led to heavy criticism of most modern airport in the region and all
In July 2018, this column, running in our Sirisena, who ended up serving just one of Africa outside South Africa – without
sister paper, The Nairobi Business Monthly, term in office. The Rajapaksas had quickly the thieves and robbers one encounters
cautioned Africa to beware of the Chinese gone back to their Chinese friends, making in South African airports. Brand new
debt trap and warned of the calamity soon up for lost time by taking on even more highways crisscross Nairobi and the rest
to befall Sri Lanka (see Nairobi Business Chinese loans. But in May 2022, Mahinda of the country. Shiny buildings adorn
Monthly, July 2018, “Africa, Beware of the was forced to resign. Nairobi and other cities as Chinese money
Chinese Debt Trap”). sloshes across Kenya.
And then Covid-19 struck. As the world Hune monetary splurges Uhuru’s splurge on infrastructure is
went into Covid lockdowns, trade in the Days later, Sri Lanka defaulted on its the most visible legacy of his “Big Four”
Asian region – the hardest hit by the debt. At the time of writing this article, agenda, which made up the main plank
virus – ground to a halt. Sri Lanka’s role the country is in deep crisis: there is no of his re-election platform in 2017. He
as a regional business hub evaporated electricity on the island, there is no fuel, promised to focus on developing afford-
overnight. The ships that had been pay- no cooking gas, no food, and with violence able housing, food security, universal
ing berthing and transit fees to Sri Lanka in the streets. Without the money to healthcare, and manufacturing. These
stopped coming. The shiny new ports and pay the military, it is doubtful that the developments were expected to create
airports it had built with Chinese loans fell government can survive, and Sri Lanka’s millions of jobs and lift Kenya towards the
silent and sat empty. Sri Lanka was mak- creditors – principally China – will be business end of middle-income status by
ing no money, but its Chinese loans were forced to either take a haircut on their the end of this year.
still due. Sri Lanka turned to its creditor debt or commit to re-establishing order At least that was the plan – the real-
stay of Kenya’s economic leadership in Last month, it was revealed that an-
the region. But Covid-19 put paid to most nual Kenya’s debt repayments for Chi-
of this, as a brief but ill-advised lockdown nese-funded infrastructure projects had
– thankfully abandoned when it became doubled, and now stand at Sh74 billion.
clear that it was pointless – wreaked havoc Chinese lenders dominate Kenya’s loan
on the sector. The corruption within Ke- repayments, with over 80 percent of our
nya’s electricity sector and the inefficiency loan repayments heading to China. Alarm-
caused by the Kenya Power monopoly ingly, Kenya asked China for debt relief
have continued to make Kenyan manu- in December, arguing that Covid-related
There are some facturing expensive and almost untenable, economic stagnation meant Nairobi was
parallels to draw
between Singapore
and Covid was nearly the final nail in that not in a position to service its debt. China
and Kenya's coffin. But although the sector just about rejected the request. Today, Chinese
situations.
survives, it will never be the success that loans to Kenya amount to over US$ 7 bil-
Uhuru thought it would be, and this was lion – and growing, as China is projected
clear from about 2018. to lend Kenya billions more this financial
ity turned out differently. Developing Uhuru, therefore, settled on the one year. Repaying these loans is dependent
affordable housing requires bravery in thing that he could deliver: infrastructure. on good economic performance in Kenya,
Kenya because it needs land reform in In this, he followed the Sri Lankan model. which in turn depends on two critical fac-
and around our urban centres – and land Kenya occupies a very strategic location tors: the coming presidential election and
reform is the one thing Kenya’s ruling on the East African coast and is famously the state of the world economy.
classes all agree on: it must never happen. the gateway to the resources locked up It is no secret that worldwide food
Uhuru’s affordable housing ambitions in Congo to the West. Only Kenya and its shortages are coming. Vladimir Putin’s
died quickly. Achieving food security as- sister country, Uganda, have the roads demented invasion of Ukraine has resulted
sumes that Kenya’s idle farmland – most to get Congolese timber, minerals and in the world losing over 12 percent of its
of it held by colonial-era concessions to other resources to the world market. By wheat crop, which is Ukraine’s share of
owners of British descent – will be turned an accident of geography, Congo is to the world wheat production. The resultant
into productive farms. This is a touchy West of Africa, while the markets for its Western sanctions on Russian resource
issue: Kenya’s position as the economic resources are to the east, in Asia. exports have created a massive spike in
powerhouse of East, Central and Southern The journey around South Africa from oil price, as Russia is a major oil and gas
Africa (excluding South Africa) relies on Asia to western Congo is long, expensive producer. Even worse, Russia, Ukraine
businesses owned by a small, immensely and dangerous. And, at any rate, Congo’s and Belarus account for up to 40 percent
wealthy White elite, alongside their Asian resources are concentrated in the east and of world fertiliser production across the
and ruling-class African elites. south of the country, close to Tanzania Potassium, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus
Any moves to confiscate the land owned and Uganda – and Tanzania lacks the ranges.
by this privileged few would see Kenya road and rail networks needed to ferry
quickly descend into Zimbabwe-style those resources to the coast for onward Stretched to the limit
economic chaos, a situation that South transport to China. That leaves just one Ukraine’s production has been de-
Africa is inexorably heading towards. No viable route: moving Congolese resources stroyed. Russia and Belarus are under
one – not even Kenya’s Africans – wants from Eastern and Southern Congo through sanctions and cannot export their prod-
that. Add to this Kenya’s attractiveness as Uganda – which has a good road network ucts easily. This shortage of fertiliser will
a destination for refugees from the region’s – and onto Kenya’s shiny new highways. lead to poor harvests and massive food
never-ending wars, and the corruption This is why the Chinese have invested shortages in the very near future, and eco-
of the country’s ruling class, and food so heavily in Kenya’s rail, air, and road nomic growth in food-insecure countries
security was never going to happen – how links. As with Sri Lanka, Kenya is walking like Kenya – and the rest of Africa – will be
do we achieve food security when we can- a debt-servicing tightrope: in December massively impacted. But our people say
not stop refugees pouring in? The World 2018, a leaked letter from Kenya’s Auditor- that among the blind, the one-eyed man
Food Programme feeds some of them, but General warned that the Kenya Ports is king. Even with food shortages, Kenya
Kenya must also devote resources to the Authority risked losing its assets to China will be far better off than its neighbours,
teeming camps. Uhuru quietly ignored if Kenya defaulted on its Chinese loans. where food shortages and perennial wars
his pledges to enhance food security as The letter was hushed up and declared “a – Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and
a pillar of his second term. mistake”, but the alarm bell was ringing. Congo are all at war – will see the usual
Manufacturing has always been a main- It has become louder since. refugee numbers made worse by food
An unlikely union,
shortages. So, naturally, Kenya will receive
even more refugees than usual. Kenya’s
economic productivity will be strained,
a testy election
and our ability to pay our Chinese debts
will be severely tested.
And then there is the politics of suc-
I
All political careers end in failure. Uhuru’s
is no exception. As his presidency winds rony is a form of politics, to quote Franco Berardi.
down on the back of impressive infrastruc- But even when it is not, often, irony and politics go
ture achievements, it cannot escape notice hand-in-hand. This spectre defines the General Elec-
that Kenya’s Chinese loans will soon come tion in August – and, by extension, President Uhuru
to resemble Sri Lanka’s: unpayable and Kenyatta’s political legacy.
unserviceable. This mess is what Uhuru Deputy President William Ruto has long maintained
hands over to his successor. As legacies that the 2018’ handshake’ between President Kenyatta
go, this one is a poisoned chalice. ( and Orange Democratic Movement leader Raila Odinga
— The author is an information systems derailed the Jubilee government’s development and
professional. governance track record. On his part, Mr Odinga insists
that the Handshake helped resolve the president “openly told me he no longer cut the country’s ballooning public debt,
political crisis that followed the disputed wanted us to work together in delivering and provide monthly payments for the
elections of 2017 – Odinga boycotted a Jubilee's promises to Kenyans.” country’s poor and unemployed. In his
rerun ordered by the Supreme Court in Such is the irony that characterises speech at Chatham House, weeks after
October of the same year. this year’s General Election: it is a contest Ruto made his address there, Mr Odinga
Mr Odinga was accused of treason between a sitting Deputy President cam- said he would prioritise easing the coun-
– although he was never tried – follow- paigning in opposition to his government try’s debt burden by renegotiating loan
ing his unofficial swearing-in in Uhuru and an Opponent aspirant endorsed by terms and prioritising commercial loans
Park in January 2018, culminating in the the President. And in March this year, with long-term lenders lower interest
Handshake barely two months later after that spat played out in the international rates. Kenya, he insisted, would not de-
President reached out to the ODM leader arena when both the DP and Mr Odinga fault and would address any concerns
for talks and reconciliation. The resultant visited London to rally support in the through dialogue.
pact created a strange political world in diplomatic community. The upcoming General Election is an
which Mr Odinga, once a bitter critic of Speaking at Chatham House when he important democratic event, but it is
the UhuRuto duo, has emerged as one of visited Britain in March, Ruto promoted also a litmus test of how well President
the strongest defenders of the Jubilee his bottom-up economic model as the Kenyatta can consolidate his tattered
government. elusive solution to which Kenyans have legacy, and Kenyans continue to debate
Mr Odinga is steadfast in defending long aspired. the President’s election wager and political
President Kenyatta’s track record on Ruto’s economic pitch is that he will future in the Azimio candidate, Mr Odinga.
healthcare and infrastructure, but he support the ‘hustlers’ [common person].
continues to criticise the Jubilee govern- His basis is that small businesses are the Revive BBI
ment’s performance on debt. Experts have biggest support of Kenya’s economy. The curtain will fall - or is supposed to - on
long raised concern about the terms and Kenyatta’s presidency in less than three
structure of Kenya’s debt portfolio, with months. But, as Dauti Kahura writes in
such criticism often dismissed by none ‘The Elephant’, the President does not
other than the Treasury itself as alarmist. Uhuru’s legacy must be looked behave like someone who wants to leave
In September last year, the Central Bank at through the lens of the August after his constitutionally mandated two
– which has always expressed confidence Election and the events leading terms are over.
that our public debt is manageable – raised to it. Two months out, it is clear When the Building Bridges Initiative
the alarm and asked the government to the President has unfinished was born, many correctly read its inten-
curb its ballooning debt, which currently business and is in the thick of the tions as a project geared to secure a
stands at over Sh8.4 trillion – more than makings of a murky succession. post-presidency position for Uhuru after
70 percent of GDP. 2022. Evidently, President Kenyatta has
Odinga argues that a large proportion of Small business grants and a government- no intentions of exiting active politics
the additional debt burden was incurred backed loan scheme will help them unleash soon. Besides staying on as leader of the
in the Jubilee government’s first term and their economic potential to expand our Jubilee Party, he also chairs the power-
confines his praise of President Kenyatta economic base and GDP: the DP’s entire ful Council of the Azimio la Umoja-One
Uhuru to his second term. campaign rests on this premise. Kenya coalition.
On the other hand, DP Ruto blames the Whenever he has had to respond to Although the Supreme Court officially
Handshake for the country’s unmanage- critics of his “hustler’s economic model”, killed off the BBI constitutional reform
able debt. Ruto has capitalised on the debt DP Ruto has often responded that the following its ruling on March 31, it did not
status, accusing the Handshake duo of alternative, the trickle-down approach, entirely bury it. Mr Odinga has promised
overseeing the raising of the debt ceiling has failed because it is very good at to revive many of its key provisions. As he
to unmanageable levels. breeding cartels – a euphemism for the told Chatham House, ‘I’m convinced our
“Tragically, the only thing I can re- fabulous riches that Kenya’s political constitution still needs some reforms’.
member that the Handshake has done elite, including the Kenyatta and Odinga For better or worse, President Uhuru’s
on matters to do with the economy is to families, have amassed. To his credit, the legacy must be looked at through the lens
borrow Sh7 trillion in the last five years,” hustler economic model is a quite efficient of the August Election and the events
the DP said during UDA National Delegates campaign tool. leading to it. Two months out, it is clear
Conference at Kasarani in March. Mr Odinga, on the other hand, cites his the President has unfinished business
In the same breath, the Mr Ruto says reform-driven history and says he will and is in the thick of the makings of murky
he broke ranks with his boss because the tackle graft and waste of public resources, succession politics. (
W
A CRUEL UNION hen archivists finally put
pen to paper on President
power relations
tions. He was voted for
twice in 2017 in his bid
for re-election after the Supreme Court nullified
his victory and called for another presidential vote
In many elections to come, presidential in 60 days.
candidates will look back to how President But the most intriguing first of President Kenyatta,
Kenyatta related to his deputy, especially in their where historians will dedicate acres of literary space
second term, in choosing their running mates. on, will be that he was the country’s first President
under whose tenure Article 148 of the 2010 Constitu-
tion was operationalized. The annalists will be keen
BY O U M A OJA N G O to investigate how the same shaped his leadership
and, by extension, his legacy.
Article 148 establishes and cements the tenure of
the office of the Deputy President. Unlike in the old
order where the holder of the Office of the President
appointed a Vice President at his pleasure after elec-
tions, Article 148 establishes a presidential ticket by
requiring the naming of a running mate by a presi-
dential candidate long before elections and ties the
two together like Siamese twins for the entire term.
“Each candidate in a presidential election,” Article
148 (1) states, “shall nominate a person who is quali-
fied for nomination for election as President, as a
candidate for the Deputy President.”
The Article then orders the Independent Electoral
and Boundaries Commission. in sub-article three,
to declare the candidate nominated by a success-
ful presidential candidate as the elected Deputy
President who, just like the President-elect, is sworn
in publicly by the Chief Justice or the Deputy Chief
Justice.
Unlike in the pre-2010 Constitution, the Deputy
President does not serve at the pleasure of the Presi-
dent. It shall be remembered that the late President
Daniel Arap Moi dropped Prof. George Saitoti as Vice
President after the 1997 General Election, only to
reappoint him months later by the roadside. For the
24 years (1978-2002) the late President Moi ruled, he
had three vice presidents: Mwai Kibaki, Josephat
Karanja and Prof. Saitoti. They were appointed and
served at his pleasure, with their firing as humiliating
as was typical in the KANU regime. Prof. Saitoti’s his-
tory as President Moi’s Vice President was the most
disgraceful. He was bypassed even as Vice President
in the succession line-up at the tail end of tion, they have run the course of their health care, manufacturing and Job cre-
President Moi’s leadership for a political second term solely on the requirements of ation. He wanted his entire government
greenhorn, Uhuru Kenyatta, despite being Articles 147-151 of the Constitution. Were to focus on the same.
the most loyal vice president. we still under the old Constitution, it is an His Deputy, however, had other things in
With the 2010 Constitution, Article open secret that it wouldn’t have taken mind. He channelled his energies too early
148 (6), the term of office of the Deputy long after re-election before President campaigns for the 2022 August elections.
President runs from the date of their Uhuru Kenyatta relieved his deputy of This divergence in focus between the two
swearing-in and shall end only when the his duties. strained their association with the man
person next elected President at the Even though the headwinds in the rela- on whose shoulders the country’s destiny
ensuing presidential election is sworn in tionship of the President and his deputy was bestowed, choosing to quietly edge
or on the Deputy President assuming the came to the fore early in their second out his number two from the sanctum of
office of President or on their resignation, term when it became apparent that they government operations. The two strayed
death or removal from office. This makes were charting divergent paths, a legacy for apart, especially towards the last year of
it very difficult for the President to fire the President and 2022 elections for the their tenure.
their deputy. Deputy President, it had been fomenting The President has since come out openly
In fact, according to Article 150 of the from the tail end of their first term. It must to declare his number two as lacking in
Constitution, the Deputy President can be agreed that the duo’s first term in office character and not fit for the rigours of
only be removed from office on the ground was wasted. Much of their manifesto was the big office. He has accused his second
of physical or mental incapacity to perform not implemented. in command of having deserted duty and
functions of office or on impeachment, Corruption skyrocketed mostly in the chosen to spend much of his time on
which is restricted to three grounds; programmes they had attempted to imple- car rooftops in campaigns. He has also
gross violation of the Constitution or any ment, notably infrastructural and, more endorsed the Official Leader of the Opposi-
other law, where it is seriously believed tion, Raila Odinga, as the most qualified to
that they have committed a crime under succeed him. The Deputy President, who
national or international law or for gross is now all out in campaigns to succeed the
misconduct. This relationship between Uhuru President, on the other hand, has accused
The Constitution, in Article 147, also and Ruto, in view of Article 148 of his boss of constructive firing. Were it not
lists functions of the Deputy President, the Constitution, has informed for the Constitution, President Kenyatta
including that he shall be the principal how presidential candidates in and his deputy wouldn’t have reached the
assistant of the President and that where the August 9 General Election have touchline of their second term together.
the President is absent or is temporarily chosen their running mates. This relationship between President
incapacitated and during any other period Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President
that the President decides, they shall act specifically, the Standard Gauge Railway, William Ruto, in view of Article 148 of the
as the President. where public coffers were fleeced through Constitution, has informed how presiden-
President Uhuru Kenyatta and his fraudulent land compensation schemes. tial candidates in the August 9 General
Deputy, William Samoei Ruto, were the The 2014 Sh132 billion Eurobond, whose Election have chosen their running mates.
unlikeliest of running mates on a presi- proceeds couldn’t be pinned down on any William Ruto himself, even though he
dential ticket. They were forced to come development in the country, had also left later disregarded his own mechanism to
together in a coalition by circumstances egg on the government’s face. The NYS choose his bosom friend, had put in place
when it became apparent that ascending to scandal in which an inquiry revealed that a vigorous process of finding a Deputy
and assuming the country’s reins of power monies were withdrawn from banks and President-designate in his Kenya Kwanza
was the only way they could circumvent taken away in sacks and many other frauds Alliance, including opinion polls and vot-
their cases of crimes against humanity in involving the loss of vast sums of money ing through delegates. On the other hand,
The Hague. The cases had come about from from public coffers had portrayed Presi- Raila Odinga went for a selection panel
the violence that engulfed the country dent Kenyatta’s first term government that included representatives from major
post-2007 General Election. The two had as one riddled with runaway corruption. parties that formed his Azimio la Umoja
been accused of funding, among other Evidently, the President was desper- One Kenya Alliance.
felonies, their tribes against each, lead- ate to turn around this perception and In many elections to come, presiden-
ing to death, destruction of property and secure a legacy right from the sunrise tial candidates will still look back to how
forced displacement of people. of his second term. He came up with the President Kenyatta related to his deputy,
While the two survived their first term Big Four Agenda, whose pillars were food William Ruto, especially in their second
purely on the exigencies of their re-elec- security, affordable housing, universal term, choosing their running mates. (
GOOD BAD
MONTH MONTH
FOR... FOR...
K
NSE 20 NASI
1,677.03pts 129.02pts enya’s mobile money use hit
687
a new high of Sh1.82 trillion
in the first quarter of 2021 as
businesses fully recover from
the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, Amount, in billions
STOCK OF according to the latest data released
by the Central Bank of Kenya.
of shillings,
transcated in 2021
THE MONTH The usage is an increase from
Sh1.6trillion transacted during a simi-
Sanlam Kenya
116
lar period in 2021. Citizens transacted
Plc Sh687.3billion on the platforms in March,
P
digital transactions jumped 23 per-
cent to 36.7 billion in 2021 from 27.5 rivate equity firm AfricInvest development bank FMO, IFC, and French
billion in 2020. has raised Sh47.9 billion in a development institution Proparco.
In the review period, registered mobile new fund for investments in The fund, dubbed AfricInvest IV, is
wallets in Africa topped 621 million, a mid-sized companies in Afri- the largest the firm has raised, eclipsing
17 percent increase from 562 million can countries including Kenya. the Sh35 billion it raised from the previ-
captured in 2020. Currently, there are Investors who took part in the fund- ous flagship fund, AfricInvest III, which
over 184 million active mobile money ing include BII UK (formerly CDC UK), closed in 2016.
wallets on the continent compared to German investment fund DEG, the Eu- It ordinarily caps investment per region
161 million accounts just over a year ropean Investment Bank (EIB), Dutch in Africa at 35% of a fund, meaning East
before. African investments could access up to
The African mobile money ecosystem Sh16.8 billion from the new fund.
is also rapidly diversifying as is the rest Since its inception in 1994, AfricInvest
of the world, from business-to-consumer The fund, dubbed has raised more than $2 billion in funds,
(B2C) to Business-to-business (B2B.) AfricInvest IV, is the which it has deployed into over 190 com-
According to GSMA, the total global largest the firm has panies in more than 35 African countries.
transaction value in 2021 was Sh116 tril- raised, eclipsing the Sh35 In Kenya, its investee firms have in-
lion, up 31 percent from 2020. While the billion it raised from the cluded UAP Insurance Group, Family Bank
trillion-dollar mark was a long-awaited previous flagship fund, Kenya, I&M Bank Rwanda, Prime Bank,
goal of the industry, the GSMA had ini- AfricInvest III, which Britam Holdings Group, Silafrica Plastics
tially predicted it would not be achieved closed in 2016. & Packaging International, Abacus Phar-
until 2023. ( maceuticals and Brookhouse Schools. (
Fintech startup
elled by a burgeoning young workforce,
internet and smartphone penetration,
and mobile money proliferation. With
Africa expansion
workforce.
It was in this environment that Grey
was conceptualised. Mr Idorenyin Obong,
G
Grey’s CEO, worked remotely for interna-
rey has announced the launch of tional companies but faced numerous chal-
its service to East Africa start- lenges in accessing the foreign currency in
ing with Kenya in partnership his accounts. Grey was launched in 2021 by
with Cellulant). Its products, Idorenyin Obong and Femi Aghedo, who
including foreign bank accounts, instant wanted to help Nigerians easily exchange
currency exchange, and international With Africa having the to local currency and access the foreign
money transfers, are now available to youngest workforce yet currencies in their accounts.
Kenyan residents who sign up on Grey. with high unemployment Grey allows Kenyans to get paid in their
In partnership with Cellulant, Grey has rates, online gig work preferred foreign currency and withdraw
expanded its services into East Africa, provides alternative and directly to M-Pesa or their local bank ac-
kicking off with Kenya to address the accessible employment count. Suppose you’re a traveller on a trip
difficulties of sending & receiving money opportunities and a path to Nairobi; you can convert any supported
abroad. Grey, a Y-combinator backed fin- to economic prosperity currencies to Kenyan Shillings, pay for
tech startup, offers a unique international for the youthful services directly to M-Pesa, or withdraw
money transfer service that enables its workforce. to a local bank account. (
A
Nigeria, Seychelles, Kenya, and South
Africa are the region’s blockchain darlings nne Kaluvu, a blockchain
expert and lecturer at the
Jomo Kenyatta University of
Agriculture and Technology
DECENTRALISED LIFE (JKUAT) in Kenya, says there is a lot of
Million-dollar
vested interest on blockchain in Africa
currently.
“I believe the efforts that Africans have
blockchain projects
shown in their creativity and openness to
the technology is inspiring a lot of venture
Africa
Africa are the region’s blockchain darlings
96 percent of the funding went to Nige-
ria, Kenya, South Africa, and Seychelles
but it was in the first quarter of this year
when the millions rolled into the continent
more, showing promise of an even better
year to come.
Anne Kaluvu, a blockchain expert and
lecturer at the Jomo Kenyatta University
of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT) in
Kenya, says there is a lot of vested interest
on blockchain in Africa currently.
“I believe the efforts that Africans have
shown in their creativity and openness to
the technology is inspiring a lot of venture
capitalists to salivate on what can happen
if funds were availed in this market.”
Nigeria, Seychelles, Kenya, and South
Africa are the region’s blockchain darlings
96 percent of the funding went to Nige-
ria, Kenya, South Africa, and Seychelles
but it was in the first quarter of this year
when the millions rolled into the continent
more, showing promise of an even better
year to come.
“Companies raised Sh10.6 billion in Q1
of 2022, a staggering 1,668 percent YoY
increase from Q1 of the previous year,”
the report says.
The continent’s venture funding growth
in the first quarter of 2022 was 11 times
the growth of general venture funding in
the same period in 2021.
Blockchain financing in the second
quarter of this year got off to a quick start,
with some noteworthy fundraising by Mara
which raised Sh26 billion in Nigeria and
Kenya, Jambo which has injected Sh35
billion in the Republic of Congo, and Afriex
E
at Sh78 billion, representing 53 percent of
all blockchain funding in Africa. ast Africans are watching their more expensive for countries that have
Exchanges and fintech businesses to- central banks as inflationary dollar-denominated loans.
gether accounted for Sh11.7 billion or 79 pressures push the continent’s “The US dollar is expected to appreciate
percent of all total funding and the report and indeed the globe’s big against other currencies, which will make
calls Africa the ‘crypto continent’ as it economies to raise lending rates. imports to the countries in the region more
leads the rest of the world in crypto adop- Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt and Ghana expensive,” Owino said.
tion and central bank digital currencies have recently increased their central The four big African countries that
(CBDCs) despite implicit and absolute bank rates citing the need to promote raised their interest rates recently cited
crypto bans by 31 countries. macroeconomic stability. inflationary pressures, which begs the
“Funding for blockchain in Africa is This comes barely a month after the question: What will East African central
increasing because investors believe the US raised its central bank rate to one banks do different, seeing as these chal-
continent has a potential for adoption,” percent from 0.5 percent — the highest lenges are sweeping across the globe?
blockchain expert Benjamin Arunda said. in over 20 years — also citing the need Central banks’ interest rates have re-
Blockchain smart contracts hold the to combat the rising commodity prices. mained stable across the region over time,
biggest promise in making Africa a better The UK, India, the United Arab Emir- but some economists now say upward
place for business through tackling cor- ates, Mexico, Canada, Australia, and New reviews might be inevitable given the
ruption, ending vote rigging, transforming Zealand are other developed economies global monetary environment and ongoing
health and education sectors, protecting that have raised interest rates in the economic shocks; otherwise they would
intellectual property, creating fintech past one month due to rising commod- suffer recession or massive capital flight.
solutions, curbing the sale of counterfeits, ity prices. The National Bank of Rwanda raised its
and decentralizing electricity. The latest But Tatonga Rusike, a sub-Saharan interest rate to five percent in February,
wave of funding is expected come in handy. African economist at the Bank of Amer- but maintained it during the last monetary
“There is no market where the growth ica, told Bloomberg that some African policy review on May 12. It is expected to
of and demand for inclusive and acces- economies like Zambia and Kenya are review it again in August.
sible financial services is more prevalent likely to leave their benchmark interest The Bank of Uganda is expected to
than in Africa,” says Ian Putter, regional rates unchanged because inflation rates review its interest rate on June 16, having
director of Blockchain Research Institute in these countries are showing signs of maintained it at 6.5 percent during the last
Africa at Standard Bank. slowing down. review on April 12, after having lowered
But Mathias Ruch, CEO of VC CV feels Kenyan economist Kwame Owino this it from seven percent in December 2021.
that there is an urgent need for govern- week said that Kenya may maintain its The Bank of Tanzania also maintained
ments across Africa to embrace block- Central Bank Rate at seven percent on its rate at five percent during the last
chain technology and develop regulatory May 30 when the Central Bank Monetary review in March. The rate has been stable
frameworks to regulate crypto and linked Policy Committee sits. since mid-2020 but is expected to be
emerging industries. reviewed soon.
Globally, blockchain companies raised Dollar effect In Kenya, the monetary review com-
S2.9 trillion in funding across 1,247 deals in Experts say the higher central bank rate mittee maintained the CBR on March
2021, a 713 percent increase in funding and in the US will definitely impact African 29 at seven percent, a rate that has held
an 88 percent increase in the deal count economies, which are already grappling since 2020.
YoY compared to Sh3.6 trillion and 662 with inflation, depreciating currencies History shows that East African coun-
deals in 2020, the survey shows. and a rising debt burden. tries are more likely to lower their interest
The US is still comfortably leading the Mr Owino, who is the CEO of the In- rates than raise them but, considering the
field, with a 56 percent share of the global stitute of Economic Affairs of Kenya, prevailing economic conditions, there is no
dollars invested in blockchain. ( (Quartz) said that debt servicing would prove certainty whether this trend will persist. (
COVID continues
Current projections indicate the pan-
demic is likely to continue increasing
the number of people living in extreme
vulnerability
Commission for Africa (ECA)’s Deputy
Executive Secretary said the report analy-
ses the implication of COVID-19 in terms
of poverty, but brings a new dimension
stressing the vulnerability in Africa. It
brings the element of people centric
analysis of what has been happening
during COVID-19 and what we need to do
to ensure that the vulnerable population
are protected in terms of social safety net
and putting up the right policies.
“This report is particularly relevant
given to what we have seen as the implica-
tions on the continent. The most critical
implication of COVID-19 has been the
reversal of the very hard-won gains that
the continent had managed to achieve in
reducing poverty,” said Morsy.
To respond to the growing poverty
effects of the pandemic, many African
countries have executed expansionary
fiscal and monetary policies to maintain
consumption and aggregate demand and
prevent firm closures and job losses. But
with effects from other conflicts such as
the Russia-Ukraine conflict this will be
greatly affected in the long run and the
BY A N TO N Y M U T U N GA an estimated 12.6 percent more people number of those falling into extreme
T
were expected to fall into poverty in 2020 poverty will continue soaring.
o date the disruptions caused alone – more than the total number of The African Continental Free Trade
by COVID-19 are still being felt people pushed into poverty since 1999. Area (AfCFTA) has the opportunity to
throughout the economy as Usually, poor households move into put Africa in a better position to eradicate
many businesses struggle to and out of poverty because of exogenous poverty. Currently, most African countries
stabilize and return operations to the shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic, and still depend on exports of raw materials
norm. In fact, its impact led to Africa’s GDP their inability to manage uninsured risks and on imports of essential goods such as
to contract by an estimated 3.2 percent only increases their vulnerability. There- food items and pharmaceuticals.
in 2020. This saw an estimated 55 million fore, non-poor people whose consumption If AfCFTA is effectively implemented,
Africans pushed into extreme poverty lies between Sh221-Sh337 ($1.90–$2.09) intra-Africa trade is expected to increase,
as more than two decades of progress in a day are likely to fall into poverty due helping Africa industrialize and diversify,
poverty reduction was wiped out. to the pandemic because even a small reducing trade dependence on interna-
According to an Economic Report on amount of consumption volatility can push tional countries and boosting the share of
Africa (ERA2021), ‘Addressing Poverty and them into poverty. Poor people, who own intra-Africa trade from roughly 15 percent
Vulnerability in Africa during COVID-19’, few assets, have limited access to credit, to over 26 percent. (
Impact of Finance
Bill 2022 on transfer
pricing
BY A L I A M E R S I foreign entity. Foremost, a preferential tax
T
regime is defined as a foreign jurisdiction
he Finance Bill 2022 was brought that does not tax income, has a lower tax
for its first reading on April 12, rate than Kenya, or does not share bank-
2022, to provide for the sched- ing or ownership information with Kenya.
uled break before the August Regarding sharing information, Kenya
2022 elections. With the rising cost-push in- ratified the Mutual Administrative As-
flation, there is a need for the government sistance in Tax Matters (MCMAA) in 2015,
to increase revenues, reduce bond yields, which implements the Common Reporting
and increase interest rates. Therefore, Standards (CRS) requirements, which is an
through the Finance Bill, several changes OECD condition on sharing information—
have been introduced to increase taxes in particular, sharing individual tax pins
within the jurisdiction, such as increas- information simultaneously between all
ing capital gains tax from 5 percent-15 signatories. Currently, over 90 countries
percent. Vitally, large changes impact have signed the MCMAA.
multinationals and Kenyan businesses The impact of MCMAA and CRS will
conducting business within preferential allow Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA)
tax regimes. to gain tax information about all Kenyan
residents, individuals and corporations
Transfer pricing who have incomes within the signatory jurisdiction, will be deemed to have done
Transfer pricing, also called transfer cost, countries. Therefore, firmly recogniz- the transaction by an independent person
is where related parties interact with each ing that Kenya operates a source-based or if none of the parties were located in
other, usually to benefit from preferential taxation system through Section 3(1) of the preferential tax regime. This may lead
tax regimes in foreign jurisdictions. The the Income Tax Act, which was further to reclassifying certain accrued incomes
concept is made in transactions between exhibited by Motaku Shipping Agencies and expenses to increase the taxable profit
a subsidiary and its ultimate mother com- Limited vs Commissioner of Income Tax payable to KRA for both local companies
pany or between divisions of the same (Civil Suit No. 60 of 2013), where it was and multinational cooperation(MNCs).
company in different countries. In most confirmed businesses that conduct trans-
cases, the beneficial owners between the actions partially in Kenya and partially Cooperate reporting
two entities are usually related and are outside would be deemed to be residents To gain access to information on the im-
using preferential tax regimes to reduce companies with their entire income tax- pact of using preferential tax regimes to
taxable income globally. able in Kenya. benefit from transfer pricing, the amount
Therefore, to bring these companies In explaining the impact of transfer of information that is provided to the com-
within taxable income in Kenya, the Fi- pricing within preferential tax regimes, missioner of tax by MNCs has increased.
nance Bill has dramatically increased the a Kenyan business importing goods, or Throughout section 18 of the Finance Bill,
scope and definition of the preferential tax yielding services from a country with a MNCs have to provide detailed financial
regime by implementing an arm’s length preferential tax regime, such as Dubai, activities within all jurisdictions. Moreover,
interpretation of doing business with a Mauritius, or other similar preferential tax the information must include capital, ac-
tial tax regimes will be obligated to pay offered to certain industries within the
30%
the relevant taxes in Kenya through the Finance Bill, such as hotels, manufacturers
defined arms-length rule; where parties and other industries operating outside
are presumed to be independent within Nairobi and Mombasa, may increase in-
an equal playing field. vestment within these localists. Moreover,
the implementation of 0 duty and vat on
Mulnational corporations will now
be required to pay at least 30 International minimum tax locally manufactured cars might lead to
percent tax on their investments. By implementing the arm’s length rule, great impacts overall; however, the cost
Kenya will have a much higher tax jurisdic- of electricity is still a great area of concern
tion than the proposed implementation of for all manufacturers.
cumulated earnings, revenue and other the 15 percent worldwide tax by the Biden In summary, the implementation of
vital balance sheets, cash flow, and income administration. Likely, MNCs will now be the arm’s length rule may increase KRAs
statement items. Further information that forced to pay at least 30 percent tax on revenue in the short-term with MNCs being
must be provided includes foreign tax their activities within Kenya. forced to pay higher amounts of taxable
disputes and transfers of intangible assets. Therefore, there may be a reduction in income. Without the application of other
Therefore, MNCs that attempt to con- foreign investment and have an overall key benefits, such as a reduced tax on the
duct a transfer of assets, or choose their negative impact on the economy. first years of business and dramatically
jurisdiction to declare a taxable profit, Nevertheless, the implementation tax reduced costs, such as electricity, the long
and take advantage of other preferen- benefits on high capital investments term impact may be grim. (
1.
2.
4.
5.
6.
Letter IMPLICATIONS
O
n May 13, 2022, the High Court of Kenya at
Mombasa (Constitutional Petition No. E
032 of 2021) declared unconstitutional the
– Henry James failure by the government to disclose the
American-British author contracts relating to the construction of the Standard
Gauge Railway(SGR) signed with Chinese lenders. Two
I intend to judge things petitioners, Khelif Khalifa and Wanjiru Gikonyo, went
to Court after their request for information on the
for myself; to judge SGR contracts were declined by the Attorney General
(AG) and the Ministries of Transport and Finance.
more honorable than 187, and legitimate government interest to deny the
petitioners access to the subject information.
not to judge at all. But before getting into a detailed analysis of the
ensuing arguments in that matter, let us paint a brief
picture of Chinese lending policies. China pursues a
secretive model of bilateral and commercial lending
abroad. Debt Agreements between Chinese lenders
and foreign governments are closely guarded using
strict non-disclosure provisions. Due to this lack of
Proposed US transparency, it is nearly impossible to have mean-
law seeks to ingful public debates on such agreements’ merits
Africa’s role in
bodies, others prefer initiating reforms
to their obligations under IIAs.
Some authors have suggested that
reforming the
some of the ways in which ISDS can be
made more responsive to the concerns
raised would be making the system more
Settlement (ISDS)
arbitration forum or creating an appellate
mechanism in order to strike a balance
between investment protection and pro-
system
tecting the host states’ right to regulate.
The appellate mechanism especially would
be useful in addressing the concern regard-
ing substantive inconsistency between
arbitral decisions in investment treaty
arbitration.
S
bottom’ syndrome, that gives unneces- their negotiating power, concerns and
ome authors have argued that sary tax holidays and waivers to foreign development needs.
African governments wanting companies.
to achieve Agenda 2063 should Yet other African states, such as South ‘Africanization’ of International
maximize foreign investments Africa, have already started terminating Investment Law
by, among others, eliminating corruption; their International Investment Agree- In addition to the reform efforts going
improving safety and security; strength- ments (IIAs) in favour of more favour- at the international arena, there have
ening macroeconomic environment, in- able dispute settlement forums, such as been efforts by the African Union aimed
vesting in quality education and skill State-State arbitration. Thus, while some at what has come to be popularly known
development in science, technology and states decide to opt out of ISDS system as ‘Africanization’ of international invest-
No excuses for
formed views of how justice is dispensed
in African courts and tribunals”.
These views are outdated, explained Ka-
overlooking African
mal Shah of Stephenson Harwood, because
the courts and systems in Africa’s major
jurisdictions have been strengthened and
T
Disputes Week (LIDW) ‘international day’ handled locally. “One way to deal with that
he international arbitration (9 May), was that the balance of power is is to make that distinction between the
community must share respon- moving from international investors to seat of arbitration and the venue, it gets
sibility for improving African African governments and businesses, and the arbitral practitioners in the country
representation, while African that the arbitration community needs to used to the idea of handling international
countries can shift the balance in their reflect that shift. arbitrations.”
own favour, said speakers at London It is not just lawyers who need more op-
International Disputes Week. Power balance portunities. Sekai Nyambo of HKA Training
There are no excuses for the lack of Although more disputes are now being Academy reported that the challenges
African representation in international handled in Africa, “the reality is Western in getting appointments are even more
arbitration, and the legal community needs investors will insist on the arbitration stark for expert witnesses, particularly
to do more, not just to appoint arbitrators clause specifying Western arbitration within the construction profession. The
and counsel from the continent, but to centres”, said Michael Sullivan QC of One large quantity of qualified candidates
promote suitable candidates. Essex Court. on the continent is not translating into
The strong opinion of a panel of lawyers Sullivan, an experienced arbitrator on appointments.
Russia
The solution, suggested Wilmot, is brand
awareness, and he asked whether enough
was being done to let counsel know about
qualified arbitrator candidates.
A common refrain when discussing A new law to punish states that back
African matters is the importance of not certain Russian actions could have major
generalising across 54 countries. Onyema implications for African countries.
pointed out that what was true to Nigeria,
South Africa or Egypt, did not necessarily
apply elsewhere. There are smaller coun-
ties that need upskilling because their BY P E T E R FA B R I C I U S through US foreign aid programmes.
A
lawyers have lacked opportunities, and It would need to ‘hold accountable
she called on the African legal community bill that would oblige Wash- the Russian Federation and African
to be supportive and use their “soft dip- ington to punish African governments and their officials who
lomatic power” to create opportunities. governments that abet Rus- are complicit in aiding such malign
Ultimately, said Sullivan, the appoint- sian ‘malign’ activities on the influence and activities.’
ment of an arbitrator is one of the most continent is about to get Congressional The bill was introduced to Con-
important strategic decisions in the whole ascent. gress on March 31 and was clearly
process and it requires a candidate who The Countering Malign Russian Ac- a response to Russia’s February 24
can handle the case, not “someone who will tivities in Africa Act passed the House invasion of Ukraine. Several other pu-
be eclipsed by the company he is keeping”. of Representatives on April 27 by a nitive laws aimed at Russia – includ-
Sullivan stressed the importance of ap- huge, bipartisan 419-9 majority and is ing one directing the administration
pointing an arbitrator who understands now sure to be passed by the Senate to gather evidence of Russian war
African culture, law and life, not least and become law soon. It would direct crimes in Ukraine – were introduced
because it means they will more effectively the US Secretary of State ‘to develop at about the same time.
be able to cross-examine witnesses. and submit to Congress a strategy and New York Democrat Gregory
His remark that it is “not a question of implementation plan outlining United Meeks, chair of the House Foreign
appointing ‘an African’, it is a question States efforts to counter the malign Affairs Committee, said the bill was
about appointing the right African”, drew influence and activities of the Russian designed to thwart Russian President
murmurs of approval from African law- Federation and its proxies in Africa.’ Vladimir Putin’s efforts to ‘pilfer,
yers in attendance. “You need someone The bill broadly defines such malign manipulate and exploit resources
positive, confident,” he added. activities as those that ‘undermine in parts of Africa to evade sanctions
“You need to be intentional about this,” United States objectives and interests.’ and undermine U.S. interests,’ and
Onyema told the profession, demanding The Secretary of State would have to to finance his war in Ukraine.
actions, not words, such as the use of monitor the actions of Russia’s govern- Mr Meeks also presented the bill
mandatory local seats, and saying that ment and its ‘proxies’ – including private as supportive of Africa, intended to
it is difficult to respect those who do military companies (clearly Wagner is protect ‘all innocent people who have
not appoint African arbitrators and that in the sights) and oligarchs. been victimised by Putin’s mercenar-
London needs to be willing to lose work The government would have to coun- ies and agents credibly accused of
for doing the right thing. (ALB) ( ter such activities effectively, including gross violations of human rights in
Economic crimes
engage, or otherwise control strategic
sectors in Africa, such as mining and
other forms of natural resource extrac-
G
rowth in fraud, cybercrimes earlier led to restrictive containment mea- agement, litigation support, electronic
and other economic crimes sures involving social distancing, remote discovery, contract lawyers and staffing,
is expected to drive the legal working, and the closure of commercial legal research, and IP management. They
services market in the forecast activities that resulted in operational are essentially focused on the “business
period. Due to the increasing prevalence of challenges. The market for legal services is of law”, leveraging a combination of legal,
fraud, law firms globally will face increased expected to reach $1112.75 billion in 2026 business and technology capabilities, to
demand for legal services. at a CAGR of 9 percent. provide services to both corporates and
The global legal services market size is law firms. Businesses are increasingly
expected to grow from $713.12 billion in Legal services industry trends employing ALSPs for many routine legal
2021 to $788.94 billion in 2022 at a com- The emergence of the alternative legal services, and law firms are outsourcing
pound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6 service providers market is a key trend in non-revenue generating tasks, such as
percent. The growth in the legal services the legal industry. ALSPs are non-tradi- project management, business analysis,
market is mainly due to the companies tional, niche companies that specialize billing, and expenses to ALSPs.
rearranging their operations and recover- in providing high-demand legal services
ing from the COVID-19 impact, which had such as document review, contract man- Legal services market segments
The legal services market is segmented
by type of service into B2B legal services,
B2C legal services, hybrid legal services
and criminal law practices. The B2B legal
services was the largest segment of the
legal services market segmented by type
of service, accounting for 54.8 percent of
the total in 2021. Going forward, the hybrid
legal services segment is expected to be
the fastest growing segment in the legal
services market segmented by type of
service, at a CAGR of 9 percent during
2021-2026.
The legal services market is also seg-
mented by size of law firm into large law
firms and SME law firms, by mode into
online and offline, by type of practice
into litigation, corporate, labor/employ-
ment, real estate, patent litigation, tax,
bankruptcy and others (regulatory, M&A,
antitrust, environmental), and by end-user
into individuals, financial services, mining
and oil & gas, manufacturing, construction,
IT services, other services and others.
Regional analysis
North America was the largest region
in the legal services market, accounting
for 55 percent of the total in 2021. It was
followed by Western Europe, and then
the other regions. Going forward, the
fastest-growing regions in the legal ser-
vices market will be South America and
the Middle East, where growth will be at
CAGRs of 11.1 percent and 10.6 percent
respectively. These will be followed by Af-
rica and Eastern Europe. (
METAMORPHOSIS
REVIEWS • SPORTS • ARTS •
BOOKS • CULTURE • KENYA
THROUGH THE LENS Africa’s virtual
designers
are already
preparing for
metaverse
fashion
“F
or me the metaverse
means freedom,” says
Idiat Shiole, a Nige-
How to build your rian virtual fashion de-
BETRAYAL
cally and internationally. She started
↴P58 her brand, Hadeeart Atelier in order to
create print fashion wear and items for
lives.” The metaverse is a virtual space African virtual fashion designers are
that isn’t just parallel to the physical making their entry into the metaverse
world but is made up of different worlds When Aisha Oladimeji started making
where users interact with each other by virtual fashion dresses, she didn’t know
using their avatars. From the comfort of what she was going into. “All I knew was
anywhere, these users can dress for a that I was tired of staying at home due to
fashion show, go on adventurous dates, Covid and ASUU [Academic Staff Union
take on jobs, and even shop just by using of Universities] strikes and I needed
the virtual reality (VR) headset. something to keep myself sane.” She
“Depending on who you ask, the meta- tells Quartz.
verse is either a meaningless buzzword or She had seen a 3D collection runway of
the next big digital platform…If the meta- Congolese fashion designer Anifa Mvuem-
verse is for real, it’s a chance to rethink ba and had gone in search of the software
what we want our digital lives to be like.” used in the creation. For weeks, she taught
With the surging growth of the meta- herself how to be a virtual Fashion designer
verse, there are numerous incomprehen- from the comfort of her home.
sible predictions and estimations. In 2021, Opera as created by Aisha Oladimeji
the Global Metaverse Market was valued and inspired by an opera building for her
at $63.8 billion with the expectation to Facade Collection
surge to $100.3 billion by the end of 2022 Oladimeji’s work is appealing— archi-
gaming clients like Decentraland and and $1.5 trillion by 2029 at 47.6% CAGR tectural, haute couture, and textural. Last
fashion and also working with fashion during the forecast period. Despite this year, she had a collection titled ECLECTIC
brands like Spatial and OKC to create meteoric rise, the question remains “Does which was inspired by experimentational
virtual versions of their clothing and col- Africa have a future in the metaverse?” buildings around the world and had show-
lections, and host virtual fashion shows. A recent Meta commissioned report says cased at the New York digital fashion
She has also collaborated with big names that if the metaverse was to be adopted in week earlier this year. But she thinks
like Fabricant, the first virtual fashion Africa and grow in a similar way as mobile Africa’s fashion industry isn’t ready for
house on their Season 0 collection. She’s technology, it could add an additional $40 the metaverse yet. “There is a freedom of
currently working on The Hacedor, a billion to Africa’s GDP in the next decade. expression in the metaverse but I think
virtual fashion gallery metaverse with a The loudness of the metaverse may I’ve seen only a few in the fashion industry
collaborative team. seem to make it recent time but the con- ready to learn and start moving towards
Shiole’s designs are aesthetically Ni- cept has existed for the past three decades. that direction.”
gerian and are partly a representation of The term was first coined by sci-fi writer
her—Hijab models, tribalmarked models, Neal Stephenson in his 1992 novel “Snow Ambitions beyond fashion
braided models. Crash” to describe a 3D virtual space. During the pandemic, UX Designer Delz
Even though the metaverse is a rela- Fast forward to 2021, a Mark Zuckerberg Erinle discovered a futuristic idea. “I was
tively new concept, everywhere including announcement about Facebook changing consumed with the thoughts of discover-
Africa, Shiole is part of a handful of African its name to Meta swept over the internet. ing something big, I remember asking
virtual designers making digital outfits in Tech giants have begun to embrace the myself ‘what if we can tell some people
preparation for the metaverse. new technology like Microsoft launching to go shopping using the virtual reality
Mesh, a virtual collaboration space for headset?” Foreshadowing a possibility,
What is the metaverse and how teams that allows employees to interact he contacted artist Niyi Okeowo, an artist,
valuable will it actually be? with online avatars during meetings or and they made a team of 30 consisting of
Defining the metaverse is not an easy Bored Ape Yacht Club creators selling 3D artists, environment creators, games
task. Tech futurist, Cathy Hackl who is nonfungible tokens NFTs for virtual land developer, and 3D modelers—with a com-
regarded as the ‘Godmother of the meta- in a crypto-based metaverse game at $253 mon goal— they launched Astra under
verse’ defines the metaverse as “further million or Decentraland sales of virtual their creative startup Thrill Digital.
convergence of our physical and digital plots of land for $2.4 million.
BOOK REVIEW
Astra metaverse
Astra is the first metaverse created by
African creators. At first, it came off as a
digital fashion studio for fashion brands
How ‘politics of betrayal’
to create 3D assets of their physical cloth-
ing but it is rather now a metaverse with
several events. But Astra isn’t just like
reverberates across the
other metaverses, it operates with an
intersection of gaming, crypto, and fash-
ion. Users can play games to earn crypto,
Kenyan landscape
go shopping with their avatars or attend
events by wearing VR gadgets. exhaustive. In this book, the author
“The future of Astra is to figure out explains how corrupt practices within
ways to continuously provide utility for the corridors of parliament happen.
people in the metaverse, they don’t see It is important to note that he served
it as a game or social media but some- as a member of parliament for the
thing that is useful for them in their day then Bahari constituency at the coast,
to day life. I hope there will be a time so he knows what he is talking about
when people will jump into 3D space firsthand. It is rare to find a politician
without it being laggy,” says Erinle, who ready to show the murk in their own
is keen on strengthening the blockchain backyard. It only takes a brave writer
system to other parts of the world, not to do that.
just in Africa to create better internet It is noticeable that most Kenyans
experiences. are people below the age of thirty. As
THE POLITICS a result, many of these people may not
Is Africa’s fashion industry ready OF BETRAYAL: know what happened in the yester-
for the metaverse? Diary of a kenyan years, especially the Jomo Kenyatta
Africa’s fashion industry is said to be legislator and Moi years of rule. Be that as it
worth over $31 billion, summing a revenue may, it is incumbent upon the citi-
BY JOE KHAMISI
of $8.6 billion in 2022 and a revenue predic- zenry to know their country’s history.
tion of $13.5 billion by 2025 with a CAGR of PUBLISHED: 2019 There is a gap to be filled by education
RRP: Sh2,515.96
16.4%. However, even among millennials on the history of Kenya. This book
Where to buy: Amazon/Kindle
and GenZ, there is still an unfortunate bias plays a crucial role in that aspect. For
towards imported clothes as compared instance, the events that eventually
to local African brands. Only time will BY JAC O B O K E TC H led to the 2007 post-election violence
‘P
tell if African digital fashion will be able are so well explained in this book. This
to effectively capture a sizable share of olitics of Betrayal: Di- gives context to our current political
this market, even locally. ary of a Kenyan Legisla- situation, especially regarding the
Africa’s fashion industry is very tor’ by Joe Khamisi is a forthcoming general election.
restrictive with their ideologies and joy to read because it is It is interesting how history repeats
though the metaverse would boost educative, especially for the younger itself in our political ping pong. Cur-
the economy, the industry is most generation who may not know the rently, former vice president Kalonzo
worried about the consumers of its extent of our political history. Musyoka who was in a tussle with the
digital assets. So creating collections as There is a way in which this book Azimio Coalition over the running
blockchain collectible isn’t just enough exposes parliamentarians for their mate position decided to go ahead
to get the industry to the metaverse. greed. Much of what the public knows with his bid for the presidency after
((Quartz) about the excesses of MPs is gleaned he failed to clinch the position. This
from media sources, and it is not same contestation is well brought out
in the book, in the run-up to the 2007 bers get bribed to vote in a particular the highest bidder.
election when Kalonzo dilly-dallied way. This undermines democracy and It is good that Kenyans got a new
almost to the last minute to name his legitimacy. There is the question of constitution in the year 2010. However,
running mate. Even though he eventu- whether lobbying constitutes corrup- the twists and turns that culminated in
ally named Julia Ojiambo as the run- tion. Since bribery or some form of the promulgation of the 2010 constitu-
ning mate, he had been mulling over it inducements are involved, there is no tion cannot be wished away. It ought to
because he felt he needed a stronger escaping that graft is actually what be remembered that the late president
person to run with him. lobbying eventually looks like. Mwai Kibaki’s resounding defeat in
Many Kenyans don’t know the in- The author’s focus on Kibera slums the 2005 referendum set the stage for
trigues that led to the appointment of paints a picture of destitution on the the acrimony that eventually set off
Kalonzo Musyoka as vice president in part of poor Kenyans who continue to the post-election conflagration in2007.
2008. In this book, the author lifts the This mess necessitated the hashing up
lid on the negotiations that eventually of the constitutional reform process
culminated in naming Kalonzo as the
vice president. Since the talks between
The author’s exemplary to avoid another scenario like that
in the future. Though Kenyans got a
the late president Kibaki’s handlers performance as MP, new constitution, the challenges have
and the ODM Kenya brigade were especially regarding shown that reform of the document
secret, not many people knew what
transpired before the publication of
devolved funds where is still a priority if we are to forge a
solid and united country. The author’s
this book. The author was the initia- his constituency was meticulous portrayal of the process of
tor of the proposal that Kalonzo be cited as having the best- the reforms right from when it started
appointed VP, and he was part of the to the conclusion is noteworthy.
delegation that met the president at
managed constituency The author gives the readers a sneak
Mombasa State House. development fund peak of what to expect from an aspir-
It is admirable how the author program, should be ing MP. And he is honest about what
unpacks patriarchy in parliament. He it takes to get there even though some
narrates how male parliamentarians emulated by current of the things he says one has to seem
frustrated the Njoki Ndungu spon- parliamentarians. to be improper-like avoiding constitu-
sored sexual offenses bill. Though ents to save money. However, given
it was eventually passed, male MPs wallow in poverty even as their lead- what we know of politics, an MP has to
did all they could to water it down. It ers are busy looting funds meant for be quite shrewd to survive, and slight
is not a surprise that the legislators the welfare of the citizenry. That any scrapes like that may not be frowned
have miserably failed in effecting dignitary who visits the country stops upon because they are part and parcel
the two-thirds gender requirement by the slum is instructive; our failure of the game of survival.
in parliament even after the retired to secure the welfare of our people has Finally, the author’s exemplary per-
chief justice David Maraga petitioned become some tourist attraction, and formance as MP, especially regarding
the president to dissolve parliament this is shameful. devolved funds where his constitu-
for failure to fulfill the requirement. The author paints a sorry picture ency was cited as having the best-man-
The author’s portrayal of the lengths of what our political parties have be- aged constituency development fund
to which our male MPs can go to stifle come. With little to show ideologically, program, should be emulated by cur-
gender equity efforts is appalling. political parties have become cash rent parliamentarians. There is a need
As an insider, the author’s exposi- cows. The leaders of political parties for more parliamentarians to write
tion of the corrupt deals that MPs get use them to make money when nomi- about their experiences in the august
involved in is a pointer to the fact that nations are conducted, and aspirants house. It gives the public a glimpse
the august house is mired in graft. For pay a lot of money as fees to secure the of what it means to serve the people
example, a disappointment is what nomination. Some people even estab- in such an exalted position. I recom-
happens in committees where money lish briefcase parties to negotiate their mend this book to all Kenyans because
frequently changes hands to influence way into the goodies of power—some it captures what representation is all
how specific reports are done. Mem- mint money by selling their parties to about and its attendant challenges. (
CHANGING IDEOLOGY
I
n just a few short years, hybrid scrutinising their bottom line.
work has gone from a nice to have Employers find themselves in a dif-
to a need to have. More than half ficult halfway house. The business case
of workers say they’d consider for keeping offices is apparent: you
leaving their employer if the option need a physical workspace to which
to work in a hybrid manner was taken your staff can commute in order to
away from them. realise the benefits of collaboration
While the idea of mixing time at and community that result in better
home and in a physical workplace, employee retention. Yet hokey-cokey
alongside colleagues, is still in the early employees – with one foot in the of-
stages of evolution, workers have voted fice, and one foot out of it – mean that
– and they’ve said it’s here to stay. costly real estate can often lie fallow,
“A large number of people who work silence ringing around the corridors of
in offices have got used to the idea that a company.
they can also be productive working Balancing operational efficiencies
from home or a café, or even a different with employee wellbeing and empow-
country,” says Steve Vatidis, execu- erment is a difficult thing to do. It’s
tive chairman at workplace analytics compounded by the fact that every
company HubStar. employee has differing perceptions and
Employees want a say in their work- expectations of the new world of work,
ing schedules but need to know that and that many of the old pressures,
the time they do spend together in a including the need to meet environ-
collective workplace is going to be time mental goals, remain. space, says Vatidis, but it needs to be
well spent. They want the right tools, Yet staff recruitment, motivation and explained and presented to employees
employee experience, and evidence for retention remain major factors employ- and employers in a much more cohe-
collaborative opportunities. ers need to consider. “Staff experiences sive, sensible way, given the changing
Concurrently, that means employers at work affect what you do; they affect face of work. There was a time, pre-
need to meet that demand, building a turnover; they affect collaboration,” pandemic, when businesses could rely
modern, hybrid workplace and culture says Vatidis. “They’re at the core of the on tradition to make the case for their
that allows workers to thrive – with all performance of any company, business workspaces and their economic value
the halo benefits that brings. Happier or organisation.” to a company’s bottom line. Workers
workers are more content workers, and The world has started recognising the came into the office every day because
more content workers are more likely inevitable, there’s going to be signifi- it was what had always been done; busi-
to stay with a business, despite more cant change, and there’s a chance to nesses kept costly workplaces on the
competition among employers than bring about a change for the better if we balance sheet because it was the norm.
ever before. But that costs money – and do the right things Now new norms are being rewritten –
is challenging for businesses already There is a place for the physical work- and both business leaders and rank and
1. 2.
4.
6.
5.
The Nairobi Law Monthly
62 • June 2022
KENYA THROUGH
THE CAMERA LENS
KENYAN WILDLIFE
Why democracy in their voices heard with the biggest and most influ-
ential tool at their disposal: the Internet. Politically
2
African scholars such as former International
Monetary Fund executive Dambisa Moyo and the
021 went down in history as the year continentally renowned Kenyan political professor
when military coups returned to Af- Patrick Loch Otieno (PLO) Lumumba have lauded
rica. The continent witnessed doz- the benefits of strongman leadership unbound by
ens of coups and attempted coups terms or age limits.
in Mali, Guinea, Sudan and Chad. In 2022, A benevolent dictator, if you like.
a military junta took power in Burkina Against the backdrop of failed multiparty democ-
Faso. racies across the continent, this idea has fallen on
The reason for the coups? People’s patience has attentive ears.
run out. Many in Africa are questioning the tenets of Some of the world’s most famous strongman
democracy and are asking whether it’s still relevant leaders — from Russia’s Vladimir Putin to Turkey’s
in the continent today. Recep Tayyip Erdogan — have become political
Across different social media platforms, there rock stars among African millennials, despite their
are many anti-democracy and anti-Western senti- utter disregard for human rights and their routine
ments. Much of the frustration seems to be directed silencing of journalists and opposition politicians.
at democratically elected leaders who were hiding Amid this resurgence of coups, I believe that
an autocratic streak, living extravagant lifestyles democratic governance is more needed than ever in
despite their poorer populaces. It’s not uncommon Africa. Not benevolent dictators. People should be
for these leaders to change their constitutions able to make fun of a president’s funny hat without
for political gain and shutter civic space to block getting thrown in jail. From communism to monarchy,
dissenting views. the very fabric of modern-day nations hinge on the
This is all happening under the watchful eyes of nuance of politics. With all its flaws, democracy has
the pioneers of democratic governance — Western emerged as a strong global system.
Europe and North America. But, instead of taking Nearly all African states have tried this form of
action, these Western nations legitimize the dirty governance after their independence from colonial
habits of these democratic-turned-autocratic rulers Europe. But generation after generation has achieved
by prioritizing their own economic interests over African elites little since.
rights abuses and corruption. need to But all is not lost. I believe that the coup trend can
On the one hand, Europe and North America pour rethink what be bucked and democratic governance can return.
billions into the continent to promote good gover- multiparty But African elites need to rethink what multiparty
nance and support the fight against poverty and democracy democracy means for them and what form it should
corruption. But, on the other hand, they also offer means for take in order for it to prevail on the continent.
financial backing to Africa’s dictatorial leaders in them and Western nations must also be ready to form new
exchange for unfettered access to natural resources. what form it partnerships with African leaders that are visibly
These double standards have consequences. should take in helping their people. They must also be prepared
After 60 years of development aid, Africa remains order for it to and willing to cut ties with leaders who fail their na-
the poorest continent in the world and still suffers prevail on the tions, even if that hurts their political and economic
the highest number of protracted civil wars, and continent. interests. ((DW)
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