URUGUAY: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Economic Activity and Industrial Production Unemployment Rate
3rd quarter 2021 Index, 2014-2019 average = 100, seasonally adjusted 12 Seasonally adjusted, %
*Monthly variation *Monthly variation (in percentage points)

52,553 5.9% 115 11

Millions of dollars Year-over-year variation 10

(Trailing 12 months) 110 0,0%*
Economic Activity
9
105
-3.4%*
National Accounts 8 2010-2020 average
Index, Mar-16 = 100, real terms, seasonally adjusted 100
*Quarterly variation 7 8.1%
120 (-1.1pp*)
95 6
115 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Industrial
90 Production
110 Consumption
-2.2%* Consumer Confidence
85 Index, 2008-2020 average = 100
105
96.8
105 2.0%* 80 2008-2020 average
Nov-18 100

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21
Feb-19

May-19

Feb-20

May-20

Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21
Aug-19

Aug-20
95
100 GDP
2.2%* 90

85
95
Economic Activity Index Industrial 80
Investment Ceres Leading Indicador Production
90 75

0.0% 5.8% 70
Year-over-year variation

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21
85 Monthly variation
November 2021 October 2021
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU), Centro de Estudios de la Realidad Económica y Social (CERES) and Universidad Católica del Uruguay (UCU).
 URUGUAY: FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Interbank’s Interest Rate Central Bank’s Reference Rate Total Deposits and Total Credit

5.75%
Nominal rate, end of period, % 80 % of GDP, end of period
20
18 December 2021 70
16
60
14 International Reserves Deposits
64.6
12
10 5.0% 50

8 Year-over-year variation 40
5.6 December 2021
6 Credit 26.9
30
4
International Reserves – Latin America
2 % of GDP, last available data 20
Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20
Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21
Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21
Feb-21
Feb-16
Jun-16

Feb-17
Jun-17

Feb-18
Jun-18

Feb-19
Jun-19

Feb-20
Jun-20

Jun-21
Peru
Uruguay
Paraguay
Brazil
International Reserves Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI)
Colombia 800 Return of Treasury Bonds, basis points over USA bonds
Billions of dollars, end of period
19 Chile 700
18 17.4 Mexico
600
Bolivia
17 500 EMBI Latin America
Argentina
16 Ecuador 400

15 300
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 EMBI Uruguay
200 166
14

13
Deposits Credit 100
Real terms Real terms
0
12
2.9% 0.0%

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21
Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Oct-19

Dec-19

Oct-20

Dec-20

Dec-21
Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21
Feb-20

Feb-21
Dec-17
Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21
Apr-20
Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-21
Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Year-over year variation Year-over-year variation

October 2021 October 2021

Source: Bolsa Electrónica de Valores del Uruguay (BEVSA), Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU), JP Morgan and official statistics from each country.
 URUGUAY: PUBLIC SECTOR

Fiscal Balance Fiscal Balance Fiscal Balance – Latin America

% of GDP, last available data
% of GDP % of GDP, October 2021
1 Ecuador
0
Mexico
-1
-2
Revenues 26.9% Argentina
Paraguay
-3
Brazil
-4 Expenditure -28.9%
Peru
-5
-4.2 Interest Chile
-6 -2.2% Uruguay
-7 Payments
Colombia
-8
Bolivia
Feb-19

Feb-20

Feb-21
Dec-19
Dec-18

Dec-20
Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jun-18

Oct-18

Jun-19

Oct-19

Jun-20

Oct-20

Jun-21
Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21
Fiscal Balance -4.2% -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

Primary Fiscal Balance Interest Payments Overall Fiscal Balance Primary Fiscal Balance Interest Payments Overall Fiscal Balance

Government Revenues and Expenditure Public Debt

Index, Jan-17 = 100, real terms, annual moving average 100 % of GDP, end of period
114 76.5
80
110
107.2 60
106 Expenditure
40
102.7
102
20
Revenues
98
0

Sep-18
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-19

Sep-20
Dec-17
Jun-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20
Mar-16

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21
94
Sep-21
Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20
Nov-19
Nov-17
Jan-18

Nov-18

Nov-20
Jan-17

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Jul-21
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

In dollars In local currency

Source: Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas del Uruguay , Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU), and official statistics from each country.
 URUGUAY: PRICES, WAGES AND EXCHANGE RATES

Annual Inflation
Inflation Nominal and Real Exchange Rates

12
12-month, %
7.9% 46 Vis-a-vis the USD
44.0 70
November 2021 43
Nov-21 65
10 Headline 7.9 40
Inflation – Latin America 64.9
8 Core 37 60
Last available data, %
Real Exchange Rate
Forecast Bolivia 34 (index, Jan-90 = 100, right)
6 1.0 55
Ecuador 1.8 31
4
Target range Colombia 5.3 Nominal Exchange Rate 50
28 (local currency per dollar, left)
2 Peru 5.7
25 45
Jul-19
Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Jul-21
Apr-20
Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-21
Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21
Chile 6.7

Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17

Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18

Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19

Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20

Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20
Mexico 7.4
Paraguay 7.4
Uruguay 7.9
Median Household Income and Real Wage’s Index Multilateral Real Exchange Rate
Brazil 10.7
110 Jan-16=100 Index, average 1990-2020 = 100
Argentina 51.5
105 Real Wage 100
1990-2020 average
97.8
100
Annual Depreciation 90

95
Median Household Income
2.9% 80
90 92.5 November 2021 70.6
70
85 Nominal Wage
80
5.6% 60
Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Jul-21
Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21
Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21

Jan-19
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-20

Jan-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21
Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21
Year-over-year variation
October 2021

Source: Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU), Instituto Nacional de Estadística de Uruguay (INE) and official statistics from each country.
 URUGUAY: EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS
Exports Foreign Direct Investment
Exports and Imports Millions of dollars Net, % of GDP, last 4 quarters Foreign Direct Investment
Billions of dollars November 2021 2nd quarter 2021 Net, % of GDP, last 4 quarters

1.2 1.1
1,097 63.2% -3.1% -0.1pp 4
1.0 Exports Year-over-year Year-over-year variation
(percentage points)
variation 2
0.8
1.0
0.6 Imports Financial Flows 0
Millions of dollars
Imports October 2021
Net, % of GDP, last 4 quarters
2nd quarter 2021
0.4
-2 -3.1
0.2
1,039 56.2% 4.4% 1.6pp -4
0.0 Year-over-year Year-over-year variation
(percentage points)
variation
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
May-19

May-20

May-21
Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21
Jul-19

Nov-19

Jul-20

Nov-20

Jul-21

Nov-21
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

-6
Current Account Balance - Latin America 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 2021
% of GDP, last available data
Ecuador
Main Export Destinations Paraguay Financial Flows
November 2021 Argentina Net, % of GDP, last 4 quarters
Mexico
10
Bolivia
Peru 8
36% 26% Brazil
Uruguay 6
Chile
4
Colombia
4.4
2
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
3%
24% 0
5%6% Current Account Balance
Net, % of GDP, last 4 quarters -2
2nd quarter 2021
-3.3pp -4
China Brasil Argentina United States Netherlands Others -2.4% Year-over-year variation
(percentage points) 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 2021

Source: Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU), Uruguay XXI, Unión de Exportadores del Uruguay en base a Dirección Nacional de Aduanas and official statistics from each country.
 URUGUAY: COMMODITIES
Main Export Products Soybean Price
November 2021 Index, 2010-2020 average = 100

140

Meat 130

32% Wood 120

33%
121.7
Energy 110
2010-2020 average
Milk and dairy products 100
Cereals 90
6%
11% Others
80
8%
11%
70
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Beef Price Milk Price

Index, 2010-2020 average = 100 Index, 2015-2020 average = 100 145.9
150 150
137.7
140 140

130 130
120
120
110
110
100
100 2015-2020 average
2010-2020 average 90
90 80
80 70
70 60
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Uruguay XXI, Unión de Exportadores del Uruguay en base a Dirección Nacional de Aduanas ,World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).