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    MANISH BHUSHAN - OPSCM Project

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    ankie27
    The document summarizes the results of demand forecasting for smartphones, laptops, and smartwatches over the next six months using exponential smoothing. It includes the forecasted demand values for each product category by month. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using MAPE and bias metrics. Recommendations for improving the forecasting methodology are provided.

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    MANISH BHUSHAN - OPSCM Project

    Uploaded by

    ankie27
    481 views4 pages
    The document summarizes the results of demand forecasting for smartphones, laptops, and smartwatches over the next six months using exponential smoothing. It includes the forecasted demand values for each product category by month. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using MAPE and bias metrics. Recommendations for improving the forecasting methodology are provided.

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    PDC

    Original Title

    MANISH BHUSHAN_OPSCM Project (2)

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    The document summarizes the results of demand forecasting for smartphones, laptops, and smartwatches over the next six months using exponential smoothing. It includes the forecasted demand values for each product category by month. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using MAPE and bias metrics. Recommendations for improving the forecasting methodology are provided.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    481 views4 pages

    MANISH BHUSHAN - OPSCM Project

    Uploaded by

    ankie27
    The document summarizes the results of demand forecasting for smartphones, laptops, and smartwatches over the next six months using exponential smoothing. It includes the forecasted demand values for each product category by month. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using MAPE and bias metrics. Recommendations for improving the forecasting methodology are provided.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    You are on page 1of 4

    PROJECT SUBMISSION

    Task 1
    ● Method of forecasting: I suggest adopting time series analysis, especially the
    Exponential Smoothing Method to predict demand for six months which is a short-
    term projection. This approach is useful for making short-term forecasts and is
    especially suitable for data that shows a trend and seasonality, which is frequently
    the case in electronics sector due to seasonal sales, holidays and product release
    cycles.

    ● Justification for the choice of method:

    Task 2

    ● The formula used for forecasting demand: ESF=α*Actual Demand+1- α*Forecast


    Demand
    ● The demand forecast for the next six months is shown in the table below

    Month Smartphones (Forecast) Laptops (Forecast) Smartwatches (Forecast)

    Jan 2044.92 1023.10 352.48

    Feb 2121.44 1061.17 360.74

    Mar 2175.01 1087.82 366.52

    Apr 2212.51 1106.47 370.56

    May 2238.76 1119.53 373.39

    Jun 2257.13 1128.67 375.37


    Task 3

    ● The formula used for calculating forecast errors: Forecasting error = (Actual
    Demand- Forecast Demand)*100/Actual Demand
    ● The forecast errors for the six months are shown in the table below

    Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

    Jan 444.92 268.10 93.48

    Feb 472.44 196.17 68.74

    Mar 606.01 210.82 116.52

    Apr 462.51 183.57 156.56

    May 318.76 119.53 173.39

    Jun 217.13 28.67 179.37

    Task 4
    ● The formula for calculating MAPE: MAPE=∑{(Actual-Forecast)/Actual}
    ● MAPE for all product categories for the six months:
    Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

    Jan 27.81 35.51 36.09

    Feb 28.65 22.68 23.54

    Mar 38.62 24.04 46.61

    Apr 26.43 19.88 73.16

    May 16.60 11.95 86.70

    Jun 10.64 2.61 91.52

    ● The formula for calculating Bias: Total Variances (Forecast-Actual)/Total Actual


    ● Bias for all product categories for the six months:

    Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

    Jan 0.042 0.0486 0.0662

    Feb 0.045 0.0355 0.0487


    Mar 0.058 0.0382 0.0825

    Apr 0.044 0.0332 0.1109

    May 0.030 0.0217 0.1228

    Jun 0.021 0.0052 0.1271

    Task 5
    ● Recommendations:
    ○ Recommendation 1 + Justification
    ○ Recommendation 2 + Justification
    Recommendation 3 + Justification

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