Dynamic Thermal Rating of Electric Cables:

A Conceptual Overview
Diana Enescu Angela Russo Radu Porumb, George Seritan
Valahia University of Targoviste, and Dipartimento Energia “Galileo Ferraris” University Politehnica of Bucharest,
Wing Computer Group Bucharest Politecnico di Torino and Wing Computer Group
Romania Torino, Italy Bucharest, Romania
diana.enescu@valahia.ro angela.russo@polito.it {radu.porumb,george.seritan}@upb.ro

Abstract— This paper provides a tutorial overview of cables, considering the so-called Dynamic Cable Rating
dynamic thermal rating concepts and methods applied to (DCR). The study of the thermal behaviour of the
electric cables. Although most analytical developments and underground cables is essential for cable design and
models have been proposed many years ago and are covered by manufacturing, as well as for determining the possible
IEC Standards, numerous recent developments suggest
occurrence of anomalous conditions that create hot spots and
refinements to these models and enhanced applications. In
particular, on the modelling side, the latest contributions refer could lead to cable failures. The effects of cable failures on
to analytic models, variants of the equivalent circuit of the soil the reliability of the electrical systems have also to be
to be used in finite difference methods, applications of 2D and assessed, especially, when joints are added during the cable
3D finite element methods, and definitions of simplified models repair. A relevant aspect is the sensitivity of the current
and equations validated with respect to the results obtained limits of the cables to the changes of the thermal conditions
from FEM simulations and experimental measurements. On (and of the corresponding parameters of the thermal model
the methodological side, the overview also covers optimal cable of the cable and the soil) during the time. For increasing the
sizing, reliability aspects, risk estimation, and forecasting of effectiveness of the definition of the cable rating in practical
dynamic cable rating.
applications, it is crucial to address risk estimation and DCR
Index Terms—Electric cables, Thermal model, Dynamic forecasting.
line rating, Cable rating, Reliability, Monitoring, Review.
The main contributions of this paper are to provide a
I. INTRODUCTION synthetic overview of some aspects referring to the
With the increase of the demand for electricity, the determination of the DCR and its impact on the power
current flowing in the electrical lines (overhead lines and system operation. Section II addresses the modelling of cable
underground cables) is growing. The electrical lines are then and soil, focusing on the thermal phenomena relevant to the
subject to increasingly high thermal stress, reaching assessment of cable heating, the DCR impact on distribution
temperature peaks during the period of operation that can system reliability, and some notes on cable monitoring
approach the thermal limits of the lines. The classical steady- aspects. Section III deals with solution methods for DCR.
state thermal rating is no longer considered to be sufficient to The Conclusions section contains the final remarks.
determine the limits of usage of the lines. On the one hand, II. CABLE AND SOIL MODELLING
the application of the steady-state thermal rating as the limit
that must not be exceeded in any operating condition could A. Thermal aspects
be excessively conservative. In fact, the line could have a The thermal calculations used for cable design are based
temperature evolution in time that leads to only a few on the physical properties of the materials, the cable loading,
relatively high temperature values. In this case, slightly and the heat transfer properties of the surrounding ambient,
exceeding the steady-state limit for a short period of time (e.g., the soil). A number of exogenous aspects are also
would not affect too much the lifetime of the materials (e.g., important to assess cable heating. These aspects include
the cable insulation). On the other hand, reaching excessive variable thermal resistivity of the earth, mutual thermal
temperatures could lead to abnormal conditions, such as hot effects of multiple cables, as well as faults in cables,
spots that could appear in some points of the lines. Hence, terminals and junctions. The lack of uniformity of the cable
during the years the assessment of the thermal stress of the structure and the external conditions can lead to the
lines has passed from the steady-state thermal rating to a formation of hot spots, which cause premature ageing and
more general Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) or Dynamic failures. Since the soil resistivity and the cable loading
Thermal Rating (DTR), able to better characterize the change in time, the hot spot location can be variable in time.
thermal transients and their consequences. The thermal model takes into account the ohmic losses
Most of the literature on DLR is dedicated to overhead and insulation losses. The latter is important because as far as
lines [1]. However, especially in recent years, growing there is no good heat transfer between cable and soil, the heat
attention has been dedicated to the operation of underground generated inside the cable (due to Joule, dielectric and

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ferromagnetic losses) that does not flow outside causes the Concerning the calculation of the parameters, the Joule
internal temperature growth and leads to insulation damage and dielectric losses are generally calculated as suggested in
[2]. the Standard IEC 60287 [9]. The thermal resistances and the
thermal capacitances can be estimated with reasonable
B. Thermal modelling of the cable
accuracy. The dependence of the cable conductor resistance
The typical thermal models of the cables have been on temperature is addressed in [10], by using the thermal
constructed by resorting to the electro-thermal analogy [3-6] circuit model. Some estimates of the cable parameters have
(Table I). been done without introducing the heat transfer equations
TABLE I. ELECTRO-THERMAL ANALOGY. and without considering a thermodynamic approach. In [11],
Thermal quantity Units Electrical quantity Units the estimation of the resistance of Medium Voltage overhead
Temperature T K Electric potential V V
lines and underground cables is made by using
synchrophasor data provided by phasor measurement units
Absolute zero 0K Ground potential 0V
(PMUs). The thermal circuit dynamics can then be
Heat Flow Rate ܳሶ W Electric current I A represented as a system of ordinary differential equations
Thermal conductivity k W / (m·K) Electric conductivity γ 1 / (Ω·m) [12,13].
Thermal capacity Ct J/K Capacitance Ce F
In general, the thermal models of the single cables are
combined by considering the mutual position of the cores,
Thermal resistance Rt K/W Resistance Re Ω
the possible further jacketing into multi-core cables, and the
location of the cables in the ducts.
Detailed representations of the equivalent circuit
considered to model the cable in operational conditions have C. Soil thermal model
been presented for the internal part of the system (the cable) The main factor that characterizes the soil is its thermal
and the external part (the soil and the ambient). A single core resistivity. Considering a uniform soil, the standard IEC
of the cable can be represented considering cylindrical 60287 [9] based on [14] indicates how to calculate the soil
symmetry with isothermal coaxial cylindrical layers (Fig. 1). thermal resistance and the effective soil thermal resistivity.
The equivalent circuit is formed by introducing a set of Thermal stability is the ability of the soil to maintain its
interconnected resistors, capacitors and generators. In thermal resistivity in the presence of a heat source [15]. The
particular, the resistors represent the thermal resistances, the thermal resistivity of the soil changes depending on the
capacitors represent the thermal capacities, and are essential moisture content. The major issue is that the heat that flows
to model the thermal transients in real operating conditions. from the cable into the soil may lead to significant moisture
The generators account for heat sources due to different migration away from the cable [16]. In this case, a dry zone
types of losses (e.g., Joule losses in the conductor, dielectric with reduced thermal conductivity (thus higher thermal
losses, and losses in the sheath and armour) [7,8]. Between resistivity) could appear around the cable. This dry zone may
two layers, the resistors and capacitors can be connected in also result in a temperature growth in the cable sheath, with
the equivalent circuit in a way consistent with “T” or “Π” further damage of the cable insulation and possible creation
circuit models with lumped parameters. After the connection of hot spots. Classical solutions used to avoid the drying of
of resistors and capacitors, any series resistances can be the soil close to the cable are based on water cooling. A
summed up together, and any parallel capacitances can be recent solution suggested in [17] is to use hydronic asphalt
summed up together, to reduce the number of elements in the pavements. Another recently proposed solution to reduce the
circuit. hot spots is gravitational water cooling [18], which can be
Fig. 1 shows a conceptual scheme in which all the “T” applied when water cooling cannot be used. For particular
circuit models are represented. However, depending on the types of cables, for example, self-contained fluid-filled
material and size of the components, some resistances could (SCFF) cables, the presence of the parallel pipe water
be neglected (e.g. for shield and sheath). cooling requires to modify the thermal circuit [19]. In a

Fig. 1. Equivalent electrical model from electro-thermal analogy for a single-core cable, considering the representation of the parameters with the “T” model.

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water-cooled cable, the soil thermal conductivity cannot be are solved with a Newton-Raphson approach. The results
assumed as a constant. The water transport effect that occurs from three-dimensional (3D) analysis have been reported
when the cable losses increase the temperature has to be more recently from FLUX 3D [33] with considerably long
considered [20]. computation time even for short cables, and COMSOL with
2D model [34] and 3D model of Low Voltage cables [35].
D. Calculation of the current rating The main limit of the FEM is the high computational burden
When the soil thermal resistivity is known, the IEC needed to obtain detailed results from the 3D analysis.
Standard 60287 [9] provides the way to determine the Another limit of the FEM is that it cannot provide a relation
current rating without exceeding the maximum allowable between the cable temperature and the parameters of the
temperature, applying the Neher–McGrath method [14]. thermal circuit [2].
Generalized techniques have been introduced in [21] to The simplified models and equations are used to
account for the soil thermal instability in the calculations represent the basic nature of the phenomena that lead to
based on [14]. The reference [22] has addressed the temperature variations. Even though the computational
particular issue of imposing the temperature limits at points power available today enables the solution of highly meshed
different from the cable conductor. The reasons for these systems from FEM, the use of these simplified models has
kinds of limitations are mainly environmental, and the provided reasonable results in many cases. An example is
temperature limit is applied to the external surface of the reported in [36], where an equivalent circuit to represent the
cable, or a given point in the surrounding ambient. This soil is introduced by adopting a non-uniform discretization of
further limit imposes an additional constraint to the cable the soil into multiple layers for calculating the thermal
sizing, which has to be also considered in dynamic transients. The conclusion is that five layers are suitable to
conditions. obtain results very close to FEM results. Likewise, in [37]
In the calculations of the current rating, it is also crucial non-concentric models of the soil layers are used. Corrective
to consider the uncertainty of the parameters. Uncertainties coefficients are applied in [30] to the soil thermal resistance
mainly appear in the thermophysical properties of the soil determined according to the Standard IEC 60287 [9], with
and the evolution in time of the electrical load, which affects, validation obtained in comparison with 2D FEM results. The
in particular, the Joule losses of the cable [23]. Transient 3D multi-conductor cell analysis presented in [38] has shown
tolerance analysis of cable rating, carried out with interval a drastic reduction in the computation time to 3D FEM for a
mathematic, has been presented in [24]. A review on three-core armoured cable with helically wound wires. A 3D
possible means to increase cable rating is provided in [7]. model of cables and joints is presented in [20], with
satisfactory results with respect to measured values.
E. Solution methods
F. Reliability aspects
The thermal characteristics of the cables buried in the soil
are typically studied with different techniques: For reliability analysis, the cables are considered as
1) Analytic models repairable components. Cables are repaired by making joints.
The process of cable repair has duration of some hours.
2) Finite difference methods
However, the repair time is very low with respect to the
3) Finite element methods timing considered for reliability analysis (e.g., mean time
4) Simplified models and equations between failures), being the failures relatively rare events in
The analytic models are based on the solution of the the cable lifetime [39].
diffusion equation that provides the transient temperature at The models to determine the cable ageing and lifetime
any point of the soil. The classical model provides the are affected by hot spot location and joints. Using a constant
solution in an exponential integral form [3,22,25]. Another failure rate is not sufficient. The joints become a weak point
analytical model presented in [26] assesses the cable rating of the cable, both for thermal reasons for the introduction of
considering the non-uniform underground temperature local resistances in the junction points and for mechanical
distribution calculated from heat transfer equations with reasons, since the cables are moved during the repair that
boundary conditions. follows the successive failures. In [40] the reliability
The finite difference methods are based on the lumped calculations take into account the service restoration, using a
parameter model constructed by using the electro-thermal probability distribution associated with the number of joints.
analogy. These methods cannot easily represent the The increase of the failure rate during the time or after repair
discontinuities in the material properties at the boundaries of events is discussed in [41] by introducing variable curves for
the different cable layers. reliability analysis considering ageing.
The finite element method (FEM) integrates the In [42] a data-driven approach is used to forecast the
governing equations of the thermal phenomena in a multi- remaining life of cables, by predicting the time at which the
physics environment, using the computational capabilities of cumulative effect of the features chosen to represent the
the solvers [4]. A number of connected nodes represent the possible problems exceeds a given threshold. In [43]
system, and the creation of the non-regular mesh is a crucial indicators of cable ageing are defined by making a
issue for the improvement of the computation time and the distinction between normal and emergency conditions, to
success of the detailed representation of the results. In point out the increased risk of failures during emergency
steady-state, the FEM minimizes a given functional subject periods. During emergencies, the cables can be used with a
to a set of boundary constraints [27]. Some tools used for higher rating in short periods, assessing the risk to deteriorate
two-dimensional (2D) analysis are FEMM [28], FLUX [29]
the cable due to its thermal behaviour [44].
and ANSYS [30][31]. A FEM tool developed by the authors
of [32] has been used with temperature-dependent thermal G. Cable monitoring
conductivity of a multi-layered soil in 2D. The numerical For DCR, the main variable of interest is the temperature.
model contains non-linear functions of temperature, which
Thermocouples can be installed at various points of the

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cable. However, the local installation of the thermocouples In some particular conditions, these sizing methods can
could be far from the actual hot spots, thus failing to identify lead to under-utilized components because of the high
the critical conditions along the cable length. variability of currents. As such, the static rating results in a
Distributed temperature sensing (DTS) [45] is used to get conservative value that underestimates the capacity of the
the temperature profile along the cable in real-time by cable because the worst case is assumed. A case is
placing optical fibre sensors inside the cable structure. The represented by export cables connecting wind farms, that are
temperature profiles are created by analysing the Raman characterized by “low capacity factors and high power
backscatter light in the optical fibre. The temperature can be production variability” [47].
used inside SCADA systems that monitor the operation of If different sizing methods are applied, it is likely that a
different cables in a network, providing information useful smaller nominal value can be chosen given certain
for both load monitoring and location of the most critical conditions. A maximum current rating increase can be
points along the cable. Some challenges for DTS achieved as well as a reduction in terms of cable cross-
applications are reported in [6]. In particular, the introduction section is obtained if compared with the traditional thermal
of the optical fibre in the power cable jacket increases the design based on steady-state current [48].
cost of the cable, especially when there is the need of To catch the characteristics of cable current in these
jointing the cable (also increasing the time to complete the conditions, the sizing of offshore export cables can follow
cable jointing). the procedure delineated by the IEC standards IEC60853-1
Furthermore, in this case, the optical fibre has a helical [49] and IEC60853-2 [50] addressing the cyclic ratings for
structure, and its length is higher than the cable length. An cables. These standards consider the case of the cyclic rating
alternative is to locate the optical fibre externally to the of a single cable or groups of equally loaded identical cables
cable. Still, in this case, the monitoring becomes far from the and propose a cyclic rating factor that has to be multiplied by
conductor, while it could be more suitable to measure the the permissible peak value of current during a daily cycle.
soil temperature. In the case of junctions, with an external The aim is, also in this case, not to exceed the maximum
optical fibre, the repair process becomes easier, but the allowable temperature. The cyclic rating factor depends on
identification of the temperature of the junction becomes less the characteristics of the daily cycle and does not depend on
accurate. the magnitudes of the currents [49,50].
The temperature monitoring can be more effective if a In [51], a procedure based on IEC60853-2 [50] is
reference temperature monitoring is carried out when no proposed for the rating of the export cable of offshore wind
current flows in the cable. In this way, possible temperature farms. In particular, an equivalent cyclic load profile is
changes along the cable path can be identified and taken into derived by assuming a wind speed time series.
account in the assessment of the temperature data when the A new approach [52] takes into consideration a dynamic
cable is under operation. load cycle profile, consisting in worst case equivalent step-
DTS is used for extremely high voltage (EHV) cables. In wise load profiles.
the example presented in [19], a 52 kV AC submarine cable An iterative dynamic cable rating method is proposed in
has been monitored. Further information on existing [53] for the export cable of offshore wind farms; three-core
practices to set up a real‐time temperature rating, including XLPE submarine cables are taken into consideration. The
distributed temperature sensing and the presence of a suitable iterative method is based on a thermal cable analysis,
SCADA system, are presented in [46]. according to IEC 60853-2 [50]. Since a dynamical response
of the cable is needed, the authors consider a thermal ladder
III. SOLUTION METHODS FOR DCR network and, on the basis of this network, the transient
In the next subsections, some DCR solution methods will temperature response by a step function is obtained. The
be described, namely the optimal sizing of the export cable iterative dynamic cable rating procedure includes a first
of offshore wind farms, the probabilistic risk estimation and, choice of the cable; then the cable loading, as well as the
finally, the forecasting methods of DCR. parameters of the thermal ladder network, are calculated.
The conductor temperature is, finally, evaluated and
A. Optimal sizing of cables compared with the maximum allowable temperature. When a
The optimal sizing of cables is usually performed by cable not exceeding the maximum allowable temperature is
assuming a static cable rating (SCR), as recommended by the found, the iterative procedure is stopped.
IEC technical Standards IEC60287 [9]. When the SCR is A review of the methods applied for sizing cable
considered, the current-carrying capacity (or ampacity) of the connecting offshore wind farms, including the ones based on
cable is calculated as the continuous current carried by the DCR, can be found in [47].
cable, such as the continuous conductor temperature will be
B. Probabilistic risk estimation
equal to the maximum allowable conductor temperature
(e.g., for most of the cables this value is 90°C). In this Export cables for offshore wind farms are considered in
approach, steady-state conditions are assumed for the useful [54], where a probabilistic methodology for temperature risk
life of the cable. The Standard IEC 60287 [9] describes how assessment is proposed. This study aims to estimate the cable
to calculate cable rating with a constant load, taking into temperature exceedance with respect the allowable
account all loss terms in the cable (ohmic losses, dielectric maximum temperature 6h, 12h and 24h ahead to maximize
losses, armour, screen and sheath losses, etc.). The simplified the power that the cable will export from the offshore wind
thermal model of the cable and its environment is based on farm to the landfall. A decision tool is established, allowing
Neher/McGrath's equations [14], as already mentioned in the decision maker to reduce or avoid wind power
Section II.D. The choice of the adequate cable section is curtailment based on the calculated risk index.
made by comparing the cable operating current with the The probabilistic methodology proposed in [54] first
ampacity values. The calculations can be performed easily estimates the current that the export cable will carry in the
for simple configurations. hours ahead: 3 time-steps are considered, namely 6h, 12h or

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24h. Scenarios of cable currents are determined based on However, there is also an interesting development of
historical data of wind speed from an offshore wind farm improved models and simplified models that can provide
location and of the power curve the wind turbine (the power results comparable with FEM.
curve allows to calculate the generated wind power for each Some weaknesses of the existing approaches will have to
value of wind speed). Then, a finite difference analysis of the be addressed in future research. The inaccuracy of modelling
cable is performed to calculate the conductor temperature. the presence of points inside the cable structure that cannot
Finally, the risk of exceeding the maximum allowable be represented with cylindrical symmetry needs more
temperature is estimated. modelling efforts to be addressed. The high burden of the
computational procedures based on 3D FEM has to be
C. DCR forecasting methods considered by developing accurate ways to organise the data.
DCR methods are formulated considering time-varying There is a need of representing the changes in time of the
environmental and circuit conditions. A dynamic rating can, operational parameters in more effective ways, resorting to
thus, be determined by meeting the constraint related to the experimental validations. Cable monitoring has to be
maximum allowable temperature. The procedure aimed at enhanced on the technological side and on developing more
evaluating the DCR needs a number of input variables, refined data analysis tools. The integration of physical and
including the ones that define the thermal conditions of the statistical models, as well as the application of more detailed
surrounding ambient; if the cable is buried, the temperature models and/or solution methods with better performance,
conductor also depends on the soil conditions. In particular, will improve the accuracy of DCR forecasting.
further, than the ambient temperature, the soil conditions
depend on precipitations and degree of saturation. For ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
operational problems, the DCR can be performed with The authors D.E., R.P. and G.S. acknowledge that this
different objectives that lead to different time horizons project has received funding by the European Union’s
(ranging from intraday to day-ahead time scales). Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under
The problem of intraday and day-ahead forecasting of the grant agreement No. 774407.
DCR is addressed in [55]. In this paper, accurate modelling
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