Math 101 - Probability

Probability of an Event Occurring

# of F avorable Outcomes
P robablity =
T otal # of Outcomes

Probability of an Event NOT Occurring

P robablity of Event N OT Occurring = 1 P robability of Event Occurring

Disjunction
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A and B)

Theoretical vs. Empirical Probability

Theoretical Probability: Theoretical probability is given by the number of ways a specific
event can occur divided by the total number of outcomes. In general, it is used to predict what
should happen.
Empirical Probability: Empirical Probability is given by the number of times a particular
event occurs, divided by the number of observed incidents. In general, it is used when looking
at what actually happened.

Sensitivity vs. Specificity

Sensitivity: Sensitivity is the probability of a true positive.
T rue P ositives
Sensitivity =
All W ho Have the Disease
Specificity: Specificity is the probability of a true negative.
T rue N egatives
Specif icity =
All W ho do N OT Have the Disease

Predictive Value
Positive Predictive Value (PPV): Probability a person who tests positive actually has the
disease.
T rue P ositives
PPV =
All P ositives
Negative Predictive Value (NPV): Probability a person who tests negative really does not
have the disease.
T rue N egatives
NP V =
All N egatives

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Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability is the probability that one event occurs given that another has occurred.
Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value are all conditional probabilities.

P (A and B)
P (B given A) =
P (A)

Example Suppose you draw a card from a deck of cards. What is the probability that the card
you draw is a heart given that it is a red card?
13
P (Red and Heart) 52 13 1
P (Heart given Red) = = 26 = =
P (Red) 52
26 2

The Counting Principle

The Counting Principle demonstrates how to calculate the results of multiple experiments per-
formed in succession. Suppose there are N outcomes for the first experiment and M outcomes
for the second. If there are M outcomes of the second experiment for each outcome in the
first experiment, we have the following formula (which can be extended for more experiments
if needed):
N ⇥M
Example Suppose someone asked you for a 3-digit passcode of only numbers. There are 10
numbers to choose from (0 9) for each digit.

10 ⇥ 10 ⇥ 10 = 103 = 1000

So there are 1000 di↵erent possible passcodes.

Note: The counting principle can be used with the probability formula.
Example What is the probability that the 3-digit passcode begins with a 1?
By the above formula we have 1 ⇥ 10 ⇥ 10 = 100, i.e. 100 passcodes start with a 1. We have
1000 total outcomes and 100 favorable outcomes.
100 1
P (P asscode Starts with 1) = = = .1 = 10%
1000 10
Independent Events
Two events are considered independent if knowing that one event occurs has no e↵ect on the
probability that the other occurs. One can use the following equation to check for independence:

P (B given A) = P (B)

If the equation holds true then A and B are independent events, otherwise they are dependent.
Example (recall our conditional probability example)
1 1
P (Heart given Red) = 6
= = P (Heart) Dependent
2 4

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Product Formula for Independent Events

Knowing that two events are independent allows us to use the product formula for independent
events.
P (A and B) = P (A) ⇥ P (B)

Permutations
A permutation of items is an arrangement of items in a certain order. Order matters for
permutations. We use the following to count the number of ways to select and order k items
from a list of n items:
n!
n Pk or P (n, k) =
(n k)!

Example How many ways can a president, vice president, and treasurer be chosen from a group
of 10 people?
We have 10 total people (our n) and 3 di↵erent positions (our k ).
10! 10!
P (10, 3) = = = 10 ⇥ 9 ⇥ 8 = 720
(10 3)! 7!

Combinations
A combination of items is a selection of items from a group. Order does NOT matter with
combinations. We use the following to count the number of ways to select k items from a list
of n items: ✓ ◆
n n!
n Ck or or C(n, k) =
k k!(n k)!

Example Suppose 8 people enter a ra✏e where there are 3 identical prizes. How many di↵erent
combinations of winners are possible?
We proceed similarly to our previous example.
8! 8! 8 ⇥ 7 ⇥ 6 ⇥ 5! 8⇥7⇥6
C(8, 3) = = = = = 56
3!(8 3)! 3!5! 3!5! 3⇥2⇥1

Using Permutations or Combinations for Probability

We can extend our use of permutations and combinations to probability.
Example Suppose I want to select a 4-player team at random from a group of 10 people, where
there are 6 men and 4 women. What is the probability the 4-player team is all male?
⇣ ⌘
6!
# of All M ale T eam C(6, 4) 4!(6-4)! 15 1
= =⇣ ⌘= =
T otal # of Combinations C(10, 4) 10! 210 14
4!(10-4)!

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Expected Value
Expected Value is the return you can expect for some type of action performed. It is usually
used to measure the amount expected to win or lose per play of a game, in the long run. The
following formula is used to calculate the expected value:

Expected V alue = P (A) ⇥ (P rof it/Loss f rom A) + P (B) ⇥ (P rof it/Loss f rom B)

Note: The formula can be extended if there are more than 2 outcomes
Example Suppose you play a game where you pick a marble from a bag. The bag contains 1
blue marble, 2 red marbles, and 1 green marble. You pay $1 to play. If you pick blue you win
$2 back, if you pick red you win nothing back, and if you pick green you win $1 back. What is
the game’s expected value?
First we calculate the probability of each event:
P (Blue) = 14 , P (Red) = 42 = 21 , and P (Green) = 14
Next we use the Expected Value Formula. Note that because we pay $1 initially, we have to
take that into account for our profit. For example, winning $2 after paying $1 to play results
in a profit of $1.

Expected V alue = P (Blue) ⇥ ($1) + P (Red) ⇥ ( $1) + P (Green) ⇥ ($0)

1 1 1
Expected V alue = ⇥ ($1) + ⇥ ( $1) + ⇥ ($0)
4 2 4
Expected V alue = $0.25 + ( $0.50) + ($0) = $0.25

The game’s expected value is -$0.25. In the long run, you can expect to lose about 25 cents
per play.
Law of Large Numbers
According to the law of large of numbers, you will almost certainly win/lose approximately
what the theoretical expected value of the game is in the long run.

Gambler’s Fallacy
The gambler’s fallacy is the belief that a series of losses in the past will be compensated by
wins in the future. A series of losses does not guarantee wins will follow.

Definition of Fair
A game is considered fair if the expected value is 0.

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