Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003 https://doi.org/10.

1088/1748-9326/aa7b29

LETTER

Lighting the World: the first application of an open source,

OPEN ACCESS
spatial electrification tool (OnSSET) on Sub-Saharan Africa
RECEIVED
27 May 2017
Dimitrios Mentis1,8, Mark Howells1, Holger Rogner1,2, Alexandros Korkovelos1, Christopher Arderne1,
ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION
Eduardo Zepeda3, Shahid Siyal1, Costantinos Taliotis1, Morgan Bazilian1,4, Ad de Roo5, Yann Tanvez6,
22 June 2017
Alexandre Oudalov7 and Ernst Scholtz7
PUBLISHED
1
27 July 2017 KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
2
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
3
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, NY, United States of America
Original content from 4
Center for Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States of America
this work may be used 5
under the terms of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, Ispra, Italy
6
Creative Commons World Bank, Washington, DC, United States of America
7
Attribution 3.0 licence. ABB, Zurich, Switzerland
8
Any further distribution Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.
of this work must
maintain attribution to E-mail: mentis@kth.se
the author(s) and the
title of the work, journal Keywords: sustainable development goals, energy access modelling, geospatial data
citation and DOI.

Abstract
In September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Agenda 2030, which
comprises a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) defined by 169 targets. ‘Ensuring
access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030’ is the seventh goal
(SDG7). While access to energy refers to more than electricity, the latter is the central focus of
this work. According to the World Bank’s 2015 Global Tracking Framework, roughly 15% of the
world’s population (or 1.1 billion people) lack access to electricity, and many more rely on poor
quality electricity services. The majority of those without access (87%) reside in rural areas. This
paper presents results of a geographic information systems approach coupled with open access
data. We present least-cost electrification strategies on a country-by-country basis for Sub-
Saharan Africa. The electrification options include grid extension, mini-grid and stand-alone
systems for rural, peri-urban, and urban contexts across the economy. At low levels of electricity
demand there is a strong penetration of standalone technologies. However, higher electricity
demand levels move the favourable electrification option from stand-alone systems to mini grid
and to grid extensions.

1. Introduction Development Goals (MDGs). The MDGs have now

been replaced by Agenda 2030 for Sustainable
Access to electricity services is one prerequisite for Development. The Agenda includes a set of 17
sustainable development and a powerful factor in sustainable development goals (SDGs) with 169
poverty alleviation. Yet, in 2015 over 1.1 billion people associated targets for 2030. The Agenda lists sustain-
globally are without electricity access [1]. The majority able energy as a SDG in its own right. SDG7 reads:
of the unserved (nearly 97%) live in Sub-Saharan ‘Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and
Africa and in developing Asia. With an electrification modern energy for all by 2030’ [5].
rate of just 43%, Africa has, by far, the lowest rate The objectives of this paper are to: [1] demonstrate
globally, well below the global average of 82%. the usefulness of open-source geospatial electrification
Developing Asia (83%), the Middle East (93%) and to provide insights for electrification planning in 44
Latin America (95%) follow [2]. The lowest electrifi- Sub-Saharan African countries, and [2] derive a least
cation rates in all regions are in rural areas [3]. cost solution for infrastructure development and
Although the importance of energy services for resulting generation mix using local relevant informa-
economic and social development has long been tion. The analysis introduces the novel, open-source
recognized [4], energy was not one of the Millennium spatial electrification tool (OnSSET) and considers

© 2017 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd

Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

varying electricity consumption targets, expressed as energy technologies and the management of the
tiers of access as defined by the World Bank [6]. already installed systems. Diverse criteria are consid-
A number of local or national electrification ered in order to identify the most favourable location
studies have been undertaken. From early efforts to for installing new energy systems. These criteria
electrify cities and farms [7] to recent national efforts include solar and wind availability, proximity to
[8, 9], these studies provide local perspectives or transmission network, rural electrification index,
roadmaps that at best indicate the challenges ahead for income per capita and others. This study though
the subcontinent but cannot be generalized as blue considers mainly the implementation of solar and
prints for sub-continent electrification. wind power technologies, overlooking the potential
To date, continent wide electrification studies have penetration of other technologies (for instance grid
been an exception [10]. A general paucity of reliable expansion or mini hydropower) to provide electricity
energy data, especially in the least developed countries, to unserved areas.
is the main reason for the lack of such assessments In this direction, Amador et al [19] highlight a major
[11]. Unlike traditional energy supply studies, problem of rural electrification, which is the selection of
electrification analyses require spatially specific infor- the most suitable technology. GIS is used to categorize
mation such as renewable energy flows, hydro power zones into areas that are more appropriate for either
sites, location of transmission lines, sizes, and conventional or renewable technologies based on
locations of settlements and their distances from the techno- economic criteria. The authors use the levelized
nearest electric grids. Such information is usually cost of generating electricity, LCOE, as the metric of
absent in national energy databases. Modern remote choice. In this analysis four parameters are considered
sensing techniques can help fill, or at least narrow, the and related to costs: rural population density (inhab-
information gap [12, 13]. Such techniques that capture itants km−2), annual solar irradiation, annual average
the spatial dimension of energy systems are essential wind speed (m s−1) and distance of connection to the
for the development of spatially inclusive and MV grid (km). This tool has been applied in the
comprehensive energy demand and supply analyses. municipality of Lorca in Murcia, Spain and verified with
This paper presents novel extensions to electrifi- coherent results. However, the limited use of GIS data
cation planning methodologies, drawing on geospatial (including the electrical network map, housing map,
information systems (GIS) tools, i.e. datasets derived wind and solar resource maps) and the lack of a grid
from satellite imagery and from a plethora of existing expansion costing algorithm constitute some key
maps to fill data gaps [14]. This methodology is a weaknesses of this effort.
powerful tool for the design of more effective A noteworthy study that investigates energy
electrification strategies in developing countries [15]. solutions in rural Africa is introduced by [20]. A
This paper is structured as follows: we briefly spatial electricity cost model is designed to indicate
describe GIS applications used for energy planning in whether diesel generators, photovoltaic systems or grid
the remainder of section 1. Section 2 formulates the extension are the least-cost options in off-grid areas.
electrification expansion methodology, listing and This analysis points out where grid extensions
analysing the datasets underlying this study. Section 3 constitute the cost optimal option based on a set of
presents the results of this work. Section 4 concludes boundaries that delineate the distance where a
and suggests areas for further work. potential extension would be feasible, i.e. 10, 30 and
50 km distance from low (LV), medium (MV) and
1.1. GIS and energy planning high voltage (HV) lines respectively. These boundaries
Energy access and associated infrastructure develop- are however not result of an optimization exercise and
ment planning cannot be addressed without regard of should be further examined.
the spatial nature and dynamics of human settlements Another substantial effort is undertaken by [21]
and economic production [16, 17]. Data requirements who uses a GIS approach for demand driven rural
increase dramatically for spatial energy analyses electrification planning in Uganda, allocating an
compared with traditional energy analyses while data energy benefit point system to priority sectors
availability becomes increasingly sparse. GIS tools are (education and health) based on local conditions
increasingly becoming the methodology of choice, and available resources in each area. However, this
encouraged with increasing open data availability [17]. study does not suggest an optimal way to provide
Within a context where energy services are electricity to the identified priority areas. [22]
increasingly delivered in a decentralized manner and introduce a framework that combines mobile phone
through non-state actors, energy planners and data analysis, socioeconomic and geospatial data and
researchers gradually use GIS analysis in order to state-of-the art energy infrastructure engineering
define national or sub-national electrification plans techniques to assess the feasibility of a limited number
and subsequent strategies and policies. Tiba et al [18] of different electrification options (three) for rural
developed a GIS-based decision support tool for areas, such as extensions of the medium voltage (MV)
renewable energy planning in rural areas. The tool grid, diesel engine-based micro grids and stand-alone
allows planning of a sizeable addition of renewable solar photovoltaic (PV) systems.

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Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

Similarly, the Network Planner approach [23] macro information required to mobilise action
considers demand centres and compares the implica- [39] for initiatives such as Sustainable Energy for
tions of either extending the national grid or rolling All (SE4All) [40] or Power Africa [41].
out solar PV household systems backed up by diesel
It analysed limited consumption targets and
generators for productive uses or opting for low scenarios—simply assuming urban and rural con-
voltage diesel based mini-grid systems. The model has sumption levels. Electrification cost and technolo-
been applied to Liberia, Ghana [24] and Nigeria [25]. gy choice change substantially as a function of the
Nonetheless, this tool accounts for a limited number of tier of access [9]. A view on cost per tier was
electrification technologies, considers a limited num- missing.
ber of demand nodes and accounts for a static
representation of the bulk electricity generation mix.
It relied on locally derived information (which
In the same way, [26] developed the Reference may not be available for all countries); while that
Electrification Model (REM), which extracts informa- might have improved data quality, it does not
tion from several GIS datasets in order to determine allow for rapid global replication. The latter, if
where extending the grid is the most cost-effective executed in an open modular framework, would
option and where other off grid systems, such as micro allow both global coverage and an improved
grids or stand-alone solar systems, would be more assessment assuming data could simply replace
economical. However, the technical potential of global data sets.
renewable energy resources is not scrutinized and
As no extensive spatially explicit mini and small
the resolution of the analysis is limited to broad hydropower potential maps were available previ-
administrative areas. ously, its potential was not evaluated. However, its
Other geospatial applications (not published in the potential is significant and, indicated in a first of
academic literature) are available in open web platforms. its kind analysis in this work.
The International Finance Corporation has developed
an off-grid market opportunity tool [27]. This tool uses In this paper a spatially explicit continent wide
geospatial information (such as population density, model (at a 1 by 1 km grid size equal to the highest
proximity to transmission and road network and others) resolution dataset of continental population density
to help private companies, governments, academia and and distribution [42]) that establishes the cost,
civil society to develop a high-level view of where technology choice (in the form of (a) grid extension,
markets for off-grid electrification may exist to better (b) mini grid, and (c) stand-alone options) to meet
inform decision-making. Similarly, the Energy Com- different tiers of electricity consumption by settlement
mission of Ghana developed an energy access toolkit for is used for first time. It relies on available global data
monitoring and evaluating energy access and renewable sets and a simplified method for rapid assessment.
energy resources in the country using geospatial datasets However, the methodology is modular permitting data
[28]. However, no electrification analysis is included in to be easily replaced or the method improved. Key
these applications in order to identify the cost optimal parameters include: population density, local grid
electrification technology. connection conditions and proximity, energy resource
To summarise, the majority of the previously endowment and locally differentiated technology
developed GIS methods have one or more of the costs, national grid electricity cost obtained from
following limitations: they focus on how rural areas The Electricity Model Base for Africa [43].
should be electrified; they do not provide an overall
electrification expansion indication for an entire
country; they deploy a limited number of electrifica- 2. Methodology
tion technologies; they use a limited number of GIS
data (some of which proprietary) and with that limit Due to its spatially explicit information and often
analysis; they use a limited number of demand nodes; intuitive visualisation potential, GIS modelling holds
they lack a grid expansion costing algorithm or they do great promise for informing policy formulation and
not account for a dynamic change of the bulk grid decision making with regards to energy planning [17,
electricity supply mix. 44]. The methodology and the main steps pursued in
We advance the most recent analysis, combining this study are summarized in the flow chart below (see
and adapting a simplified technology choice and cost figure 1). It is based on [8] and [9] with specific
topology [9] and GIS approach used in [8] to employ additions in bold.
open data sets to assess electrification options and Specific changes include the use of Open Street
costs to meet different demand levels. To do this, it was Map data to determine transmission and power plant
necessary to overcome limitations of the latter. Those location information, where local information is not
shortcomings included that: available. Additional costs are assigned to the
electricity grid expansion process based on the

It was spatially limited to Nigeria—while Africa’s topology of the studied area. In order to develop
most populous nation, it does not provide the demand scenarios, ‘tiers’ of access are incorporated. As

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Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

Electrification model

WorldPop,UN,
World Bank, IEA
World Bank

Tiers of
Population
electrification

Electricity demand

NASA SRTM, JRC,

OSM, AfDB OSM, AfDB NOAA OSM, CGIAR,
HydroSHEDS, Natural
USGS GADM ISCGM NASA Merra NASA Langley
JRC Earth, IEA

Existing and Wind

Power plants Small/Mini Diesel cost of
Planned Night-time Administrative Solar
Transmission
and Economic Topology Hydro Capacity generating
Activities
light Areas Irradiance electricity
Grid Potential Factor

Mini Grid Stand Alone

Grid

Technology
Selection

Optimal
Electrification
Split

Figure 1. Framework of the Open Source Spatial Electrification Toolkit (OnSSET) and principal data sources.

no global mini and small hydro potential dataset combined with different tiers of electrification leads to
exists, one is developed based on several datasets. future electricity demand scenarios—a crucial input to
Moreover, night-time light datasets are used in the cost-optimal allocation of electrification options.
combination with the population distribution, the Each tier represents different levels of electricity
transmission and road network in order to identify the services provided, starting from basic lighting (lowest
presently electrified populations [45, 46]. In this tier) to services that provide comfort, such as air-
analysis, the costing of each technology considers the conditioning (table 1). Various tiers are assessed for all
topological characteristics of the subjected area, e.g. given grid points in order to capture different
areas on higher elevation would indicate an additional specificities of electricity demand levels per region.
investment cost due to higher construction and In this paper results are presented as if each tier was
transportation costs. Likewise, proximity to the road homogeneously applied over the continent. In reality
network, land cover, slope gradient and distance from though, significant income differences across the
substations affect the initial investment cost [47] continent would imply different electricity demand
(detailed presentation in the appendix). Finally, levels and all five tiers are likely to co-exist in a given
coastline information is adopted to calibrate a country. For a more detailed analysis, interested users
heuristic for diesel costing. The modular approach may therefore navigate through the open source code
(indicated in figure 1) allows for data sets to simply be and the results available on GitHub9 and select
replaced when more accurate or updated information location specific tiers.
is available.
2.2. Assigning costs
2.1. Electricity demand The electrification options analysed in the study
Geospatial data entailing the administrative bound- included three categories: grid connections, mini-grid
aries throughout 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa systems and stand-alone systems. For every GIS cell,
[48], population density [42] which is ‘assigned’ to the levelized cost of generating electricity (LCOE) of
point locations of 1 by 1 km, hereinafter called these options are evaluated by a simple cost model
settlements, existing infrastructure (transmission based on Nerini et al 2016 [9]. The resulting LCOE
lines) [49, 50] and national access to electricity [2] information is fed into the GIS model to determine the
are processed to derive information about the current most economical option for each grid cell given its
electrification status by country. Thereafter, the geospatial characteristics. In this analysis, two different
transmission grid is assumed to expand to connect international oil prices are considered (current or low
with planned power plants and mineral mining sites and projected or high) in order to assess how
[49–51]. The population is adjusted to reflect the
population projected for 2030 by [52]. Population 9
https://github.com/KTH-dESA/PyOnSSET.

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Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

Table 1. Mapping of tiers of electricity to indicative services [6].

Level of access Tier 0 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5

Indicative Torch Task General Tier 2 þ light Tier 3 þ medium or continuous Tier 4 þ heavy or
appliances and lighting þ lighting þ air appliances (i.e. general appliances (i.e. water heating, ironing, continuous
powered radio phone circulation þ food processing and water pumping, rice cooking, appliances (i.e. air
charging or television washing machine) refrigeration, microwave) conditioning)
radio
Consumption — 8 44 160 423 598
per capita and
year (kWh)

Point potential (in MW)

<1

1–5

5 – 10

Total potential (in MW)

<500

500 – 1000

1000 – 1500

1500 – 2000

2000 – 3000
0 1,250 2,500
km

Figure 2. Mini and small hydro power potential in the selected 44 Sub-Saharan countries.

increasing oil prices influence the least cost electrifi- Small and mini hydro power potentials10 were
cation mix. The current oil price is 47 US$/bbl [53], derived by combining and analysing several publicly
while the projected one reaches 113 US$/bbl according available GIS datasets: digital elevation map [55],
to the IEA New Policies Scenario [54]. More global river network [56], Global Streamflow Char-
information can be found in the appendix. acteristics Dataset [57, 58], inland water bodies and
restriction zones [59].
2.3. Spatial energy resource availability Digital elevation maps at 90 m spatial resolution
As information relating to diesel price heuristics, wind (0.00083o) were processed to obtain water flow
and solar potential represent only modest additions in directions, layers of flow accumulation raster and
this piece, they are included in the appendix. However, estimations of the drainage area per cell. Combined
as no extensive GIS small and mini-hydro power
potential maps exist on the entire subcontinent, we 10
IRENA (2012) defines mini hydro power as plants with
develop an analysis to generate a map of estimated generating capacities between 100 to 1000 kW and small hydro
potentials, with their location (figure 2). power between 1 and to 10 MW.

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Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

Overall system configuration Mini-grid technology split Stand-alone technology split

100%
100% 100%
80% 80% 80%

60% 60% 60%

40%
40% 40%
20%
20%
20% 0%
Diesel Diesel Solar Solar Wind Wind Hydro Hydro 0%
0% (Low) (High) PV PV (Low) (High) (Low) (High) Diesel (Low) Solar PV (Low) Diesel (High) Solar PV
Grid Grid Mini-grid Mini-grid Stand-alone Stand-alone (Low) (High) (High)
(Low) (High) (Low) (High) (Low) (High)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5

Figure 3. Overall system configuration (left); mini-grid technology choice (middle); stand-alone technology choice (right) for low
and high diesel prices and for five tiers of electricity consumption.

with the information on annual mean water runoff11 As household demand for electricity increases, the
this results in a high resolution raster showing the relative proportions of grid based and mini-grid
average discharge values (m3 s−1). The global river solutions increase. This comes at the expense of stand-
network dataset was used to assign these discharge alone options. This is due to scale and operating cost
values to actual rivers. Each stream was assigned considerations. At higher consumption levels, the
several attributes required for the estimation of hydro proportionally higher quantum of fixed cost associated
power potentials (elevation at sample and upstream with the grid infrastructure of centralised (and mini-
point, distance to source, distance to mouth and grid) power plants is divided by increasing generation
several sample points located in a defined distance of 1 volumes. The effect is to decrease the per unit cost of
km from each other). Finally, the small and mini hydro these systems. Supplying increasing volumes of
power potentials were estimated with the hydropower electricity with stand-alone system, requires additional
equation [60, 61], based on the diversion (run-off- investments. Their cost per unit of generation would
river) technique using impulsive turbine (e.g. Pelton) decrease slower than other systems.
characteristics suitable for applications with high head The effect of operating costs vis-a-vis the diesel
and relatively low volume flow: price is discussed with a focus on technology options.
The effects of increasing consumption on supply
P p ¼ r  g  nt  ng  nef  Q_ point  ðH p:up  H p Þ type split are well illustrated through maps associated
with the low diesel price moving between Tiers 1, 3
where: and 5, illustrated below in figure 4. For reference, the
Pp: Potential power output at sample point in W existing and planned transmission infrastructure (lines
r: Water density constant (1000 kg m3) larger than 69 kV) is also drawn on those maps. Note
g: Gravitational constant (9.81 m s2) that for stand-alone systems the opacity is increased
nt: Turbine efficiency set as 0.88 with increasing population figures. By population, for
ng: Generator efficiency set as 0.96 all tiers three to five grid-based connections dominate.
Q_ point : Discharge flow at sample point in m s−3 This is simply as large areas of the continent are
Hp: Elevation at sample point projected to be sparsely populated, making grid
Hp.up: Elevation at upstream point extension unviable while higher density urban
nef: Conversion factor accounting for the environ- settlements are already close to existing grids. Moving
mental flow deduction (set as 0.6). between Tiers 1 and 3, increases grid connection in
relatively populous areas around Nigeria, Ethiopia and
Lake Victoria. This becomes accentuated at Tier 5
3. Results
electrification, with grid coverage over most of
Western Africa.
Least-cost electrification options for 2030 were
Figure 4 (bottom right side) illustrates the
calculated and mapped for about 25.8 million
interplay between diesel prices and the deployment
locations in Sub-Saharan Africa and ten alternative
of mini-grids, i.e. the share of mini-grid systems
scenarios (low and high diesel prices; five tiers of
decreases with increasing diesel prices. The underlying
electrification). The electrification options—grid
dynamic is discussed next. Again, while mini-grids in
connections, mini grid and stand-alone solutions—
the Tier 5 high-diesel scenario take up large areas,
vary from one scenario to another. This is summarised
these are for relatively sparsely populated settlements.
in figure 3.
Mini-grid technology deployment changes as a
function of diesel price and electricity demand.
Moving to higher tiers, mini-grid systems move from
11
The map was made available at 0.5° spatial resolution by the predominantly diesel to solar and hydro systems. This
European Joint Research Centre, therefore a resampling process was is particularly the case in the higher diesel price
essential. This process yielded a raster layer showing the mean
annual runoff stream flow (mm yr−1) on a global scale at a spatial
scenario. The relative transitions by tier and diesel
resolution of 0.00083o. price is given in figure 3 (middle).

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Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

N N

Tier 1 Tier 3
Low oil price Low oil price

Optimal Split Optimal Split

Supply type Supply type
Grid Grid
Mini Grid Mini Grid

Stand Alone Stand Alone

Existing Existing

Planned Planned
0 1,250 2,500 0 1,250 2,500
km km

N N

Tier 5 Tier 5
Low oil price High oil price

Optimal Split Optimal Split

Supply type Supply type
Grid Grid
Mini Grid Mini Grid
Stand Alone Stand Alone
Existing Existing
Planned Planned
0 1,250 2,500 0 1,250 2,500
km km

Figure 4. Least cost electrification mix for low diesel cost and Tier 1 (top left), 3 (top right) and 5 (bottom left); and high diesel cost
and Tier 5 (bottom right).

As the diesel price increases, economies of scale geographic block, was studied in Tanzania. This
effects decrease rapidly for gen-sets; from 25% market influenced the technology decision in ∼0.13% of the
share (at low diesel price and Tier 5) to 1% (at higher studied locations within the country, implying
diesel price and Tier 5). This is because their LCOE is minimal impact of the population allocation within
dominated by fuel costs. As generation increases, so do a 1 × 1 km area.
fuel bills—while no fuel costs are incurred by solar,
wind and hydro systems. There are however hefty 3.1. Investment needs
quanta of infrastructure costs that are disproportion- The minimum total investment requirements to
ately large at low demand levels. As consumption provide electricity the estimated 1.1 billion people
increases, the per kWh costs decrease significantly and in Sub-Saharan countries by 2030 amount to 50 billion
the diesel based mini-grids progressively gain market US$ at low diesel prices and the lowest electrification
shares—from 0% (Tier 1) to about 1% (Tier 5). level, while the maximum investment for universal
In the case of stand-alone systems, the move from access reach 1.3 trillion US$ at high diesel prices and
diesel to solar PV systems as a function of usage and the highest tier of electrification. Included are the
diesel price is well illustrated in figure 3 (right hand side). capital costs for transmission and distribution
For reference, the numerical values of all splits are infrastructure as well as for all off-grid systems
summarized in the appendix. Not only the access type (stand-alone and mini grid technologies). The
but also the specific technologies are available on a investment costs for the grid generated electricity
spatial basis. In figure 5, the spatially explicit least-cost are obtained by The Electricity Model Base for Africa
electrification technology is mapped for Tier 5— [43] based on the electricity generation mix of each
higher diesel price. country. A summary of the investment needs and the
Population density and distribution play a access split is shown in figure 7 and presented in detail
significant role in the technology selection. This study in the appendix. The investment needs in the low
utilizes a population dataset provided in a continuous diesel price scenario range from 50 to roughly 855
raster format at approximately 1×1 km resolution (the billion US$, whilst for the high diesel price the
highest publicly available continental resolution). It corresponding values stand at 64 billion US$ and 1.3
has been assumed that the population resides in the trillion US$, respectively. This occurs as higher diesel
centre of the 1 km2 block, as shown in the following prices increase the system costs and improve the
schematic representation (figure 6). An alternative competitiveness of the relatively more expensive,
allocation of the population, say top left corner of the (non-diesel based) grid and mini grid systems.

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Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

Optimal Split
Technology

Grid

MG PV

MG Wind

MG Hydro

MG Diesel

SAPV

SA Diesel

0 1,250 2,500
km

Figure 5. Least cost electrification technology for high diesel cost and Tier 5 (MG stands for Mini Grid systems and SA for Stand
Alone).

level investment potentials are obtained. As technolo-

1 km gy categories and type are identified, information
related to developing supply chains and maintenance
New
population might be gleaned. As technology is mapped to areas,
allocation there is the potential to define location specific
concessions and support mechanisms. These might
Current vary from national support to local and from market
1 km

population support or focus on engineering or resilience require-

allocation
ments where there are climate or other risks.
Taking advantage of this, assistance can be
prioritised. For example, considering aid-related
actions, by developing a simple index that divides
the product of per-capita investment needs with
country risk, divided by key considerations such as
Figure 6. Population allocation in the centre and on the top
left corner of a cell. electricity access and use, other modern fuel access and
institutional weakness simple rankings are possible.
Applying a cursory index such as the Market
Assistance Need Index (MANI), we find that Liberia,
The significance of each access type in achieving Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Burundi
full access to electricity by 2030 is illustrated by the rank highest in assistance need, while South Africa,
cumulative investment curve per access type in figure 8 Botswana and Namibia are countries that score very
which considers the highest level of electricity demand low on this index (for the cursory calculations, see the
(Tier 5). Access is provided to some 850 million people appendix).
via grid expansion at an investment requirement of For illustrative purposes, the LCOE and the MANI
900 billion USD; mini grid systems connect and index are mapped and put next to each other in figure
supply around 180 million people at 260 billion USD. 9. On the left hand side, the LCOE (which includes
Stand-alone systems provide access to some 70 million fuel, investment and operation costs) increase from
people on the sub-continent at a cost of about 110 green to red. While on the right hand side, green
billion USD. indicates a low MANI and red higher. An immediate
reflection is that areas with low LCOE and MANI may
3.2. Implications for market development and be spaces that the market, with limited intervention
assistance might be encouraged. While, on the other hand areas
The analysis and mapping suggest numerous policy with high LCOE and MANI may need special
implications. As data is separated by country, national assistance.

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Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

100% 100%

Overall technology split

Billions USD
Overall technology split

Billions USD
90% 1200 90% 1200
80% 80%
1000 1000
70% 70%
60% 800 60% 800
50% 50%
600 600
40% 40%
30% 400 30% 400
20% 20%
200 200
10% 10%
0% 0 0% 0
Low1 Low2 Low3 Low4 Low5 High1 High2 High3 High4 High5
Grid Mini Grid Stand Alone Grid Mini Grid Stand Alone

Figure 7. Access split for new connections, in bars, and overall investment needs, in lines, for universal access by 2030 for low diesel
costs (left); and the same (right) for high diesel costs.

Investment needs for new connections

1,300
Billions USD

Stand
1,200 Alone
1,100
Mini Grid
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400 Grid
300
200
100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
New connections (Millions)

Figure 8. Cumulative investment curve per access type for new connections (high diesel costs, Tier 5).

LCOE MANI
USD/kWh High : 10
>0.5
Low : 1
0.02

0 1,250 2,500
km

Figure 9. LCOE (left) and MANI for high diesel prices and Tier 5 (right).

4. Conclusions energy system modelling helps identify the most

effective electrification strategy on a geospatial basis.
Energy systems are inherently linked to geographic OnSSET is a complementary approach to existing
parameters, which are often inadequately considered energy planning models which do not consider
in energy system models. The integration of GIS and geographical characteristics related to energy and

9
Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

allows analysts to improve upon the over-simplified Table A1. Technologies compared for energy access
dichotomy between on- and off-grid systems. Category Supply technology
This study develops bottom up cost-optimal
spatially explicit estimates of electrification technology Grid connection (Grid) National grid
mixes to meet different tiers of continental electricity Mini grid systems (MG) Solar PV
access in Sub-Saharan Africa. It can be used to provide Wind turbines
valuable support to policy makers on least-cost Diesel generators
Hydropower
electrification strategies and to bridge science,
Stand-alone systems (SA) Solar PV
technology and policy at different levels. Moreover, Diesel generators
this tool can help planners and analysts identify
investments by country, location and by technology
type and support off grid electrification initiatives
[62]. Further, only a limited number of scenarios are
In low demand settings, decentralized generating presented. These might be far from robust. Changes
options (solar, wind, hydro and diesel) contribute in population movement, technology change, trans-
considerably to the achievement of universal access. As mission expansion plans, national and regional
electricity demand increases, supply shifts to grid power pool development (as recently indicated
connections, i.e. centralized generation. As diesel [43]) may deeply affect costs and the ‘optimal’
prices increase there is a shift to greater deployment of technology choice. However, given the open nature of
renewable mini-grids, at the expense of diesel based the experiment, answering these—and other—short-
stand alone and mini-grid systems. comings might be a step closer than before.
The geospatial open-source electrification analysis
presented in this paper lays the groundwork for
exciting initiatives. In the policymaking arena, Appendix: Methods
electrification planning is often captured by private
consultants’ analytical infrastructure. The open source Cost calculations
and the modular structure of the presented tool allow Four parameters determine the LCOE per location
for repeatable science, improvements in data and assuming full electrification by 2030:
method to be incorporated. The tool can thus easily be
transformed in an effective planning device for a. Target level and quality of energy access, i.e. the
universal electrification strategies in countries and amount of electricity that already electrified and
support the irreversible momentum of clean energy yet to be electrified households will be provided
[63]. So much so that this effort forms the basis of with, measured in kWh/household/year.
United Nations [64] suite of tools to promote capacity
development for achieving aspects of Sustainable b. Population density, measured in households
Development Goal 7 (SDG7), such as access to km−2.
affordable supplies of modern sustainable energy for c. Local grid connection characteristics including
all African countries. An effort to which contributions the distance from the nearest grid (km) and the
are welcomed. average national cost of grid supplied electricity
While the analysis is a first of its kind in terms of $ kWh−1.
scope, it provides the basis for an array of future
analysis. This includes informing locally specific d. Local renewable energy resource availability and
electrification support strategies. These might take diesel costs
cognisance of nationally specific levels of assistance
required, or conceivably logistics planning. The LCOE of a specific technology option
The analysis can be improved in several ways. represents the final cost of electricity required for
Available data might be improved with access to more the overall system to breakeven over the project
up-to-date information, higher quality global data lifetime. It is obtained with the following equation
sets. Some of these might not be made available in the Pn I t þO&M t þF t
short term. However, therein lies interesting poten- t¼1 ð1þr Þt
LCOE ¼ Pn Et ð1Þ
tial. For example, patterns associated with satellite t¼1 ð1þr Þt
night-light data might indicate more accurately the
configuration of current HV, MV and LV power lines where It is the investment expenditure for a specific
(revealed by ‘continuous lines’ of lights—likely technology option in year t, O&Mt are the operation
interconnected to the same supply). The analysis and maintenance costs and Ft the fuel expenditures, Et
itself might be more deeply nuanced. This might is the generated electricity, r the discount rate and n
include heuristics to determine an electrification the lifetime of the option.
‘timeline’ or prioritization, rather than a simple Note that the LCOE calculations for the mini grid
‘snapshot’ of an ultimate access targets in 2030. and stand-alone electrification options reflect the total

10
Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

Table A2. Electricity generation technology parameters used in the model. Sources: [65–68].

Plant type Investment cost ($ kW−1) O&M costs (% of investment cost/year) Efficiency Life (years)

Diesel Genset—Mini Grid 721 10% 33% 15

Mini and Small Hydro—Mini Grid 5000 2% – 30
Solar PV—Mini Grid 4300 2% – 20
Wind Turbines—Mini Grid 2500 2% – 20
Diesel Genset—Stand Alone 938 10% 28% 10
Solar PV—Stand Alone 5500 2% – 15

Table A3. Transmission and distribution costs in the model. Sources: [9], [43], [65], [69].

Parameter Value Unit

Life 30 Years
HV line cost (108 kV) 53000 USD km−1
HV line cost (69 kV) 28000 USD km−1
MV line cost (33 kV) 9000 USD km−1
LV line cost (0.2 kV) 5000 USD km−1
Tranformers 5000 USD/50 kVA
Additional connection cost per household connected to grid 125 USD/HH
Additional connection cost per household connected to mini grid 100 USD/HH
T&D losses 7%–29% of capital cost/year
O&M costs of distribution 2% of capital cost/year

Table A4. Other model parameters and assumptions. Sources: These datasets are classified to five categories and
[43, 70].
assigned a value between 1 and 5, 1 indicating the least
Parameter Value Unit and 5 the most suitable areas for grid expansion. The
Analytic Hierarchy Process is used in order to quantify
National grid electricity cost (fuel cost) 0.02–0.16 USD kWh−1 the importance (weight) of each geospatial factor in
Discount rate 8% –
the additional investment cost associated with grid
extension processes. The next step involves the
system costs while the LCOE for the grid option is the combination of the re-classified layers along with
sum of the average COE of the national grid plus the their corresponding weight as to get a final combined
marginal LCOE of transmitting and distributing layer applying a weighted overlay function in GIS
electricity from the national grid to the demand environment. The classification and the weights of
location. A detailed description of the model costs can each geospatial dataset are stated in the table A5. The
be found in Nerini et al [9] and selected data is penalty cost can reach up to 30% of the initial
updated in tables A2–A4 above. investment cost.
The cost analysis is carried out for the five different
tiers of energy access outlined in the Global Tracking Household size
Framework Report [6]. The household size is an important parameter in the
electrification planning analysis as it affects the
Penalty cost assignment to electricity grid expansion connection costs per household. These are calculated
processes based on (a) the projected mean national household
The expansion of the transmission network to areas size values [71] (b) the existing and projected national,
lacking access is a capital intensive process. The urban and rural populations [72] (c) the urban to rural
investment costs are influenced by several factors such household size ratio given in demographics and health
as the capacity, the type and the length of the lines as country surveys (see table A6). For the countries where
well as by the topology of the subjected area. In this urban and rural household sizes are given, we calculate
analysis, a number of geospatial factors that affect the the weighted mean household size knowing the
investment costs of the transmission network are corresponding populations. The known urban and
identified and considered in order to assign an rural household sizes are used to estimate the urban to
incremental capital cost in locations that indicate rural household size ratio per power pool. For the
specific topological features. More particularly, invest- countries where only the mean national household
ment cost is influenced by elevation, the road network, size is known, we use the above mentioned ratio and
land cover type, slope gradient and distance from the urban/rural populations to estimate the urban/
substations. rural household size.

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Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

Table A5. Classification and weights of each geospatial dataset.

Geospatial factor Weight Class A Class B Class C Class D Class E

Digital elevation (m) 15% 0–500 501–1000 1001–2000 2001–3000 >3000

Distance to roads (km) 5% 0–5 5.1–10 10.1–25 25.1–50 >50
Slope (degrees) 32% 0–10 10.1–20 20.1–30 30.1–40 >40
Distance to sub-stations (km) 9% 0–0.5 0.6–1 1.1–5 5.1–10 >10
Land covera 39% 7,9,10,14,16 2,4 1,3,5,12,13,15 6,8 0,11
Suitability index 100% 5 4 3 2 1
a
Further clarification can be found at http://glcf.umd.edu/data/lc/.

Wind energy potentials Table A6. Household size in Sub-Saharan African countries in
2030.
GIS data of global mean annual wind speeds at 50 m
height and 5 km spatial resolution were obtained by Country Mean Mean urban Mean rural
the Global Wind Atlas [73] based on ten years of national household household
hourly data and validated against ground measure- household size size
size
ments. These data are used to calculate the capacity
factor [74]. The latter is defined as the ratio of the Angola 6.1 5.6 6.7
yearly expected wind energy production to the Botswana 1.9 1.7 2.1
energy production if the wind turbine were to Benin 3.3 3.1 3.6
operate at its rated power throughout the year. The Burkina Faso 4.8 4.4 5.1
capacity factor reflects the potential wind power at a Burundi 4.0 3.5 4.1
given site and it can be used for comparing different Cameroon 3.1 3.0 3.3
Central African 5.3 5.0 5.6
sites before the installation of wind power plants. The
Republic
spatial distribution of wind power capacity factors for
Chad 5.5 5.1 5.6
areas where it is technically feasible to install wind Congo 3.6 3.5 3.9
farms is presented in figure A1. This is translated to a Congo, DR 4.7 4.4 4.9
cost and used as an input to the model for the mini- Côte d’Ivoire 5.0 4.7 5.5
grid options based on the parametric analysis shown Djibouti 6.8 6.5 7.7
in [9]. Equatorial 5.5 5.2 5.7
Guinea
Eritrea 5.1 4.5 5.4
Solar energy potentials
Ethiopia 5.0 4.4 5.2
The global solar data set was obtained from the Global
The Gambia 6.9 6.6 7.6
Solar Atlas [75]. This provides average annual global Gabon 4.0 4.0 4.4
horizontal irradiation (GHI) (kWh m day−2) at 3 km Ghana 3.5 3.3 3.8
resolution. The data is based on over ten years of Guinea 6.1 5.6 6.5
hourly data derived from satellite imagery and Guinea-Bissau 5.3 5.0 5.8
validated against ground measurements. Applying Kenya 3.3 3.0 3.5
standard geospatial analysis, the irradiance data were Liberia 5.0 4.6 5.4
Lesotho 2.9 2.6 3.1
further processed to yield to the annual irradiance for
Madagascar 4.1 3.7 4.4
each grid cell (kWh m yr−2). Malawi 4.0 3.5 4.1
The LCOE of stand-alone solar PVs is calculated Mali 5.9 5.4 6.3
based on the radiation and the system costs as Mauritania 6.4 6.1 7.0
presented in [8]. An illustration of the global Mozambique 4.1 3.7 4.4
horizontal irradiance map is illustrated in figure A2. Namibia 3.1 2.9 3.4
The LCOE of mini-grid solar PVs is calculated based Niger 6.4 5.7 6.6
Nigeria 4.3 4.0 4.6
on the above parameters and the population density of
Rwanda 5.2 4.7 5.6
settlements. South Africa 2.4 2.3 2.7
Senegal 7.8 7.2 8.4
Spatial LCOE generated by diesel Sierra Leone 4.8 4.4 5.2
To calculate the LCOE of diesel generators, the Somalia 6.1 5.6 6.6
international diesel price (current and projected), the South Sudan 6.5 5.7 6.8
travel distance from major cities to each grid point, Sudan 6.2 5.5 6.5
global coastlines and the characterization of a country Swaziland 2.5 2.2 2.6
Togo 3.6 3.3 3.8
as landlocked or coastal are considered. The current oil
Tanzania 4.3 3.9 4.6
price is 47 US$/bbl [53], while the projected one
Uganda 3.9 3.4 4.0
reaches 113 US$/bbl according to the IEA New Policies Zambia 4.9 4.5 5.3
Scenario [54]. There are no subsidies or taxes taken Zimbabwe 4.1 3.7 4.3
into account in this analysis.

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Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

Capacity factor (%)

Not suitable

<5

5 - 10

10 - 15

15 - 20

20 - 25

> 25

0 1,250 2,500
km

Figure A1. Wind power capacity factor after geographic restrictions.

Global Horizontal Irradiance

kWh/m2

Not suitable

< 1,500

1,500 - 2,000

2,000 - 2,250

2,250 - 2,500

> 2,500

0 1,250 2,500
km

Figure A2. Global horizontal irradiance after geographic restrictions for mini grid and stand-alone applications.

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Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

N N

USS/kWhel USS/kWhel
>3 >3

0.15 0.3

0 1,250 2,500 0 1,250 2,500

km km

Figure A3. Levelized cost of electricity for diesel generation (current diesel price on the left, New Policies Scenario 2030 projected
diesel price on the right).

Table A7. Summary of the technology split for the African continent (percentages of new connections).

Technology split Stand alone Mini Grid

Scenario/Electrification option Grid Mini Grid Stand Alone Diesel Solar PV Diesel Solar PV Wind Hydro

Low 1 20% 0% 80% 95% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Low 2 22% 0% 78% 95% 5% 83% 0% 1% 17%
Low 3 44% 7% 49% 96% 4% 98% 0% 0% 2%
Low 4 64% 21% 15% 96% 4% 99% 0% 0% 1%
Low 5 68% 25% 7% 96% 4% 99% 0% 0% 1%
High 1 20% 0% 80% 6% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High 2 28% 0% 71% 4% 96% 1% 25% 27% 47%
High 3 61% 5% 35% 2% 98% 5% 83% 6% 7%
High 4 75% 13% 12% 1% 99% 6% 88% 3% 3%
High 5 78% 16% 6% 1% 99% 7% 88% 3% 2%

The calculation of the diesel costs varies from where Pd is the international market price of diesel
coastal to landlocked countries as described below. ($ l−1), c the diesel consumption (l h−1), t is the
transport time (h), V the volume of diesel transported
For coastal countries (l) and LHVd is the lower heating value of diesel
The price in the major cities of countries with coastal (kWh l−1).
access is equal to international price on the coast with
one uniform price on all coastlines. In remote areas the
transport cost is enumerated taking into account the Electricity production cost Pp ($ kWhel−1)
diesel price on the coast, the diesel consumption of a  
Pd
truck, the volume of the truck and the transportation Pp ¼ þ P t =h þ P O&M ð2Þ
LHV d
time.
Then, the electricity generation cost is calculated where h is the electrical efficiency of the diesel
considering the conversion efficiency of a diesel generator (kWhel/kWhth) and PO&M the labour,
generator. Finally, the LCOE is calculated by adding maintenance and amortization costs.
labour, maintenance and amortization costs. Taking into account the above, the total cost of
electricity produced by diesel generators is given by the
For landlocked countries following formula:
The diesel price in major cities of landlocked countries
is determined by adding transportation costs from the Pd  c  t 1
P p ¼ ðP d þ 2  Þ þ P O&M ð3Þ
coast to the international price of the closest coastline. V h  LHV d
For remote areas diesel costs are calculated similarly to
the remote areas in coastal countries. Figure A3 shows the spatial variance of the electricity
costs per kWh delivered by a diesel generator for both
Transport cost Pt ($ kWhth−1) the current and the projected oil price for stand-alone
systems. For mini grid systems, the electrification
Pd  c  t 1 model calculates the LCOE considering additionally
Pt ¼ 2   ð1Þ
V LHV d the population density of settlements.

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 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

Table A8. Investment needs for universal access by 2030, in billion USD.

Country Low 1 Low 2 Low 3 Low 4 Low 5 High 1 High 2 High 3 High 4 High 5

1. Angola 1.55 2.58 6.87 17.11 22.65 1.86 4.33 11.98 26.02 33.90
2. Benin 0.57 0.91 2.45 6.60 9.22 0.70 1.74 4.67 10.00 12.97
3. Botswana 0.32 0.40 0.65 1.34 1.77 0.33 0.50 1.01 2.05 2.69
4. Burkina Faso 0.32 1.02 3.21 11.45 16.53 0.72 2.94 9.54 22.52 29.30
5. Burundi 0.15 0.47 4.41 10.78 14.34 0.42 2.05 6.08 12.08 15.80
6. Cameroon 1.96 2.99 6.49 16.95 23.93 2.16 4.19 10.88 24.18 32.23
7. Central African Republic 0.07 0.23 0.76 1.92 2.69 0.16 0.73 2.50 6.24 8.69
8. Chad 0.18 0.69 2.62 6.89 9.59 0.51 2.50 8.52 21.04 29.06
9. Democratic Republic of the Congo 1.63 5.03 19.24 53.27 74.15 3.14 13.74 45.98 110.00 148.47
10. Djibouti 0.03 0.05 0.12 0.30 0.43 0.04 0.09 0.25 0.58 0.78
11. Equatorial Guinea 0.16 0.21 0.37 0.73 0.98 0.17 0.25 0.51 1.01 1.51
12. Eritrea 0.28 0.52 1.26 3.09 4.53 0.34 0.86 2.55 6.23 8.25
13. Ethiopia 3.70 8.32 30.56 72.58 95.22 4.81 14.45 44.29 88.59 114.53
14. Gabon 0.42 0.55 0.92 1.75 2.30 0.43 0.58 1.05 2.09 2.78
15. Gambia 0.05 0.11 0.38 0.95 1.27 0.08 0.28 0.84 1.75 2.31
16. Ghana 2.21 3.09 6.82 15.59 21.09 2.39 4.15 9.31 18.45 23.92
17. Guinea 0.32 0.69 2.30 6.86 9.61 0.54 1.84 5.52 11.42 14.72
18. Guinea-Bissau 0.16 0.22 0.43 0.95 1.27 0.18 0.31 0.73 1.60 2.05
19. Ivory Coast 1.64 2.32 4.58 12.75 17.61 1.83 3.36 8.90 17.99 22.71
20. Kenya 1.71 3.44 15.48 44.69 60.97 2.44 7.60 24.64 52.61 69.93
21. Lesotho 0.11 0.19 0.47 1.32 1.81 0.13 0.32 0.94 2.10 2.66
22. Liberia 0.06 0.21 0.71 2.21 3.08 0.13 0.63 2.09 4.58 5.83
23. Madagascar 0.52 1.18 4.15 12.71 17.94 0.98 3.81 12.57 27.38 35.65
24. Malawi 0.29 0.75 5.03 11.98 15.28 0.69 3.03 8.89 16.44 20.88
25. Mali 0.52 1.03 3.15 9.33 13.29 0.84 2.85 8.88 20.01 26.33
26. Mauritania 0.10 0.26 0.77 2.13 2.93 0.17 0.63 2.11 5.27 7.19
27. Mozambique 0.77 1.68 5.33 18.29 26.20 1.28 4.60 15.00 34.63 45.04
28. Namibia 0.22 0.32 0.69 1.50 1.95 0.24 0.41 0.95 2.01 2.59
29. Niger 0.38 1.24 4.55 13.77 19.23 0.87 3.77 12.21 28.26 37.24
30. Nigeria 11.71 16.98 38.10 93.57 127.35 13.27 25.97 61.65 120.06 153.05
31. Republic of Congo 0.24 0.52 1.78 4.49 6.47 0.27 0.87 2.54 6.33 8.64
32. Rwanda 0.28 0.58 1.83 3.65 4.70 0.49 1.79 4.01 7.69 10.05
33. Senegal 0.85 1.39 3.24 9.07 12.44 1.00 2.26 6.21 12.90 16.67
34. Sierra Leone 0.09 0.24 0.95 2.91 4.24 0.18 0.85 2.79 6.14 7.78
35. Somalia 0.32 0.77 2.20 4.86 6.52 0.48 1.61 4.61 10.63 14.41
36. South Africa 10.73 12.59 18.28 31.77 40.88 10.86 13.32 20.91 37.96 48.69
37. South Sudan 0.14 0.58 2.12 5.51 7.46 0.40 2.06 7.21 17.80 23.46
38. Sudan 1.26 2.66 8.19 20.03 27.97 1.84 5.80 17.18 40.36 55.10
39. Swaziland 0.15 0.18 0.28 0.77 1.10 0.16 0.26 0.60 1.18 1.43
40. Tanzania 1.22 2.90 11.72 35.82 49.75 2.24 8.87 28.17 61.34 80.51
41. Togo 0.30 0.53 1.44 3.89 5.57 0.40 1.11 3.23 6.90 8.86
42. Uganda 1.21 2.39 13.41 31.92 41.75 2.01 7.03 19.47 36.80 46.98
43. Zambia 0.46 1.23 3.71 9.43 12.85 0.73 2.58 7.94 18.87 25.56
44. Zimbabwe 0.98 1.40 2.78 9.21 13.66 1.19 2.61 7.36 16.62 21.28
TOTAL 50.32 85.64 244.78 626.68 854.55 64.09 163.50 457.26 978.67 1282.48

Technology market share by category and type a 1–10 non-dimensional scale where 1 represents the
worst performance and 10 the optimal:
A simple market assistance index
MANI is defined as shown in the following formula
whereas the indicators are normalized and adjusted to

MAN I ¼
Investment needs per capita index  Country risk
Access to electricity  El: consumption per capita index  Access to modern f uels index  Institutional W eakness index

15
Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085003

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