HARAMAYA UNIVERSITY

POSTGRADUATE PROGRAM DIRECTORATE

PASTORAL VULNERABILITY AND LOCAL ADAPTATION

PRACTICES TO DROUGHT: THE CASE OF HARSHIN DISTRICT,
FAFAN ZONE SOMALI REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA

MA Research Proposal

Adnan Abdi Ahmed

College Social Sciences and Humanities

School Geography and Environmental Studies
Program Geography and Human Environmental Studies
Major Advisor Tegegne Sishaw (PhD)
Co-Advisor Admasu Bogale (PhD)

March 2024

Haramaya University

I
 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONOMY

ANOVA Analysis of Variance

APS Access to Public Services
CSA Central Statistical Agency
Das Development Agents
EMI Ethiopian Meteorological institute

EWI Early Warning Information

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FAO Food and Agricultural Organization

FHH Female-headed households

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GTP Growth and Transformation Plan

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action

NGO Non-Government Organization
SPSS Statistical Package for Social Sciences

SSN Social Safety Nets

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

II
Table of Contents Page
LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................... V
LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................ VI
CHAPTER ONE ....................................................................................................................................... 1
1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 1
1.1.Background ......................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2.Problem of statement .......................................................................................................................... 3
1.3.Objectives of the study ........................................................................................................................ 5
1.3. 1.General objectives ...................................................................................................................... 5
1.3.2. Specific objective ............................................................................................................................ 5
1.4. Research questions ........................................................................................................................ 5
1.5.Significance of the Study .................................................................................................................... 5
1. 6.Scope of the Study ............................................................................................................................. 6
1.7 Definition of key terms ....................................................................................................................... 6
CHAPTER TWO ...................................................................................................................................... 7
2. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE............................................................................................. 7
2.1 Concepts of climate variability and drought ...................................................................................... 7
2.1. Concepts of climate variability ......................................................................................................... 7
2.2 Concept of drought ............................................................................................................................ 8
2.2.1 Major types and features of drought ............................................................................................... 9
2.2.2 Metrological drought ...................................................................................................................... 9
2.2.3 Agricultural drought ....................................................................................................................... 9
2.2.3. Hydrological drought ..................................................................................................................... 10
2.3 Impact of climate variability and drought ......................................................................................... 11
2.3.1 Social impacts ................................................................................................................................ 12
2.3.2 Economic impacts .......................................................................................................................... 12
2.4 Local adaptation strategies of climate variability and drought.......................................................... 13
2. 5.Conceptual framework ...................................................................................................................... 14
CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................................. 17
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................... 17
3.1.Description of study area .....................................................................................................................
17
3.1. 1.Location ..................................................................................................................... 17
3.1.2 Topography and Soil .................................................................................................................... 18
3.1.3 Climate drainage ...........................................................................................................................
18

III
3.1.4 Population characteristics and socio-economic setting .................................................................
18
3.1.5 Vegetation and wild animals .........................................................................................................
19
3.2. Research design ............................................................................................................ 20
3.3. Type and source of data ................................................................................................
20
3.4. Sampling technique and sample size determination ......................................................
20
3.4.1 Sampling techniques ........................................................................................
20
3.4.2 Sample size determination .............................................................................. 21
3.5. Data collection and instrument ......................................................................................
21
3.5.1 Questionnaire ...................................................................................................
21
3.5.2 Reconnaissance visit ........................................................................................
21
3.5.3 Focus group discussions ..................................................................................
22
3.5.5 Key informant interview ......................................................................................................... ..22
3.5.6 Field observation ..................................................................................................................... .23
3.6. Data analysis and processing ...................................................................................... .23
4.WORK PLAN ..................................................................................................................................... ..25
5.BUDGET BREAKDOWN ................................................................................................................... 25

IV
 LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
.Table 1: Time frame of the research activities 24

Table 2: Stationary cost 25

Table 3: Per-diem expenses 25

Table 4: Field data collection expense 25

Table 5: Budget summary 25

V
 LIST OF FIGURES

Tables Page
Figure 1: Conceptual frame work………………………………………………………..….16

Figure 2: Map of the study area……………………………………………………………………

17

VI
 CHAPTER ONE

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background

Climate variability is attributed by natural process and human activities in the recent years
(Downing, 2007). It is recognized as greatest challenges of our world and predicted to have
adverse impacts for the world’s ecosystems, economies and societies (IPCC, 2007). Drought
has been also a greatest mystery and it is one of the worst natural afflictions whose occurrence
is imperceptible and become a recurrent climatic phenomenon across the world (Masih et al,
2014). Climate variability and drought affects humanity in a number of ways such as causing
loss of life, crop failures, food shortages, malnutrition, health issues and mass migration. It
also causes huge damage to the environment and is regarded as a major cause of land
degradation, aridity and desertification (Below et al., 2011). The available estimates on
climate variability and drought impacts suggest that, during the period 1900-2013, there were
642 drought events reported across the world resulting in a huge toll to humanity, killing about
12 million people and affecting over 2 billion (EM-DAT, 2014).

In Africa, climate variability and recurrent drought has had many significant impacts on small
hold farmer’s livelihood and affects the life of many peoples and its trend is increasing in 21th
century. Many African countries are highly affected by impacts of climate variability and
recurrent drought due to their dependency of rain fed agriculture for rural livelihoods.
According to Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT, 2014) more than 100 million people
were affected by drought in Africa. Particularly Eastern African countries (like, Ethiopia,
Kenya, and Somalia) have been among the vulnerable countries to climate variability and
drought over decades due to their dependency on rain-fed agriculture (IPCC, 2014).
Furthermore, climate variability and recurrent drought mainly affects the rain-fed agricultural
sectors of technological and economically less developed countries in Africa (Feyssa and
Gemeda, 2015). Drought in arid and semi-arid regions of Africa are expected to expand by 5-
8%, or 60-90 million hectares, resulting in agricultural losses of between 0.4-7% of gross
domestic product (GDP) in Northern, Western, Central and Southern Africa (IPCC, 2007).

1
Ethiopia is one of the sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries, which are highly vulnerable to
climate hazards particularly climate variability and recurrent cycle of drought (World Bank.
2010). Such hazards are not unique to Ethiopia (Abduselam and Abdulahi, 2017). The scale of
impact in terms of frequency, area coverage, high number population affected by food
insecurity and damage properties, livelihoods and the national economy highly (UNICEF,
2011). The history of drought in Ethiopia goes back to 250 BC and there had been many
national and localized droughts even before that of the 1970's for which international support
was sought for the first time (Andersson et al, 2009). The magnitude, frequency and impacts
of the droughts have increased since mid' 1970's. The severity and persistence of the droughts
has produced a wide range of impacts across the country (Sara, 2010).
Adaptation is one policy option for reducing the negative impacts of climate change as the
frequency, extent, and duration of adverse weather conditions increase (IPCC, 2014).
Adaptation to climate change helps protect the livelihoods of the poor, ensuring food security
for vulnerable communities. Because adaptation is a dynamic social process, the
implementation of an adaptation strategy depends on the social acceptability of the adaptation
options and the ability of households to take advantage of their networks to benefit from useful
climate information (Adger, 2003). Successful adaptation might provide more effective tools
for protecting individuals and communities (Khanal, U, C Wilson, V-N Hoang and B Lee,
2018); (Kuang, 2019). Economic agents adopt various adaptation strategies, depending on
their available and accessible assets (Biglaria, T, H Maleksaeidib, F Eskandarib and M Jalalib,
2019). Strategies for adapting pastoral communities to changing environmental conditions
have been studied (Mengistu, D and J Haji , 2015); (Amare, 2019). The literature has
demonstrated that if adaptation strategies are supervised and well implemented, pastoralism
can play an important role in reducing poverty, generating economic growth, and promoting
sustainable development (Opiyo, 2015). Thus, an improved understanding of the factors
influencing producers’ decisions regarding adaptive practices can provide a basis for
formulating policy recommendations that would respond effectively to climate change in
pastoral communities.

As with other pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in Ethiopia, Somali Region has a long history of
marginalization although it is one of the surplus livestock producing areas, and characterized

2
by arid and semi- arid climatic conditions. Thus, Harshin woreda are highly vulnerable to
drought, as well as the impacts happened in the woreda. Understanding pastoralist’s
vulnerability and their local responses to drought is crucial, as this will help in designing
appropriate coping and adaptation strategies to drought. Therefore, the aim of this proposal is
to assess pastoralist’s vulnerability and adaptation response off the drought effects and tries to
estimate and predict pastoral community in Harshin woreda, Somali Regional State, East
Ethiopia.

1.2. Problem of statement

In many developing countries, like Ethiopia currently faces a number of critical developmental
and ecosystem management challenges (Wilhite et al., 2007). Current climate variability,
recurrent drought and intense precipitation events affects and exacerbates socio-economic and
environmental issues in different parts of the country (EM-DAT, 2010). Without urgent action,
this could make it impossible for poor people to attain a wide range of development and social
justice goals (ISET, 2013). Drought is complex climatic phenomena, which causes huge
damages to human being, environment and agriculture production, and which varies time to
time in terms of its onset, intensity, duration and geographical coverage (Ngaira, 2007). The
2015/16 El Nino is one of the strongest features of drought that have been recorded in Ethiopia
history where more than 27 million people affected by food insecure and total population of
18.1 million people require food assistance (Abduselam and Abdulahi Mohamed, 2017). Over
85% of Ethiopia population live in rural areas and are heavily dependent on rain fed
agriculture this makes them extremely vulnerable to changes in weather condition (Anderson,
2015). Some of the contributing factors of climate variability and recurrent drought were: -
precipitation deficiency, El Nino, land degradation, population growth and its activities, and
climate change are the major one (Pierre et al, 2006). Agriculture was taken as a core sector to
solve the current appeal challenges and to bring future sustainable agricultural economy to the
country in general and study area particularly; the sector is recently challenged by climatic
shocks such as prolonged drought, late coming and early stop of rainfall before and after crop
maturity (Astawsegn, 2014).

In Ethiopia most small hold Farmers practices mixed farming activities in most parts of agro
ecological regions (Adger et al., 2003). Harshin Woreda was one of the agricultural surplus

3
producer areas in Fafan zone. Small hold farmers practice mixed farming activities in most
parts of the woreda. like in most rural areas of Ethiopia, Harshin Woreda is characterized by
harsh weather condition, depleted soils fertility, fragile natural environment, growing
population pressure and variation in temperature and rainfall patterns, land degradation, and
increase food insecurity have been made rural livelihood strategies more difficult in most parts
of study area. Since recent past, small hold farmers in Harshin woreda are facing adverse
impacts of climate variability and recurrent drought on their livelihood. As a result of this,
crop and livestock production has decreased and has become significantly vulnerable to the
various challenges due to the change in the pattern and timing of rain fall and change in the
cropping pattern of the study area. A number of studies have been carried out on climate
variability and drought in different parts of the Ethiopia in general and limited in study area
particularly such as (Sara, 2010) the case of Tigray region, (Defferew, 2011) the case of North
Shoa zone and (Masfine, 2015) the case of Harshin Woreda was some of the studies.

According to the findings of a study conducted by Deressa et al. (2008), the Somali national
regional state is one of the country’s two most vulnerable regions to climate change
impacts.As a result, understanding climate change trends and their impact on pastoralists’
livelihoods at a local level is critical for finding adaptation and mitigation options. Climate
induced shocks are expected to be more severe in pastoral communities, as the environment is
fragile and people’s adaptive capacity is low. However, studies on the impact of climate
change and variability on pastoral communities are very limited, which is particularly true at
the local level of analysis. Therefore, the goal of this study is to investigate climate change,
vulnerability and adaptive sstrategies to drought and their consistency with households’
perceptions and their effects on pastoral households in the Harshin District of the Somali
Region, Ethiopia. This is important to minimize challenges of climate variability, drought
and to develop effective local adaptation practices to drought by small hold farmers in the
study area.

1.3. Objectives of the study

1.3.1. General objective

4
 The overall objective of this study is to understand pastoralist’s vulnerability and Adaptive
Strategies to drought in Harshin District, Fafan Zone Somali Region of Ethiopia.

1.3.2. Specific objectives

The specific objectives of the research that will be carried out for achieving the main objective
will be:
1. To assess climate variability by small hold farmers in the study area.
2. Assess aspect of metrological drought in the study area using SPI(standardized
Precipitation Index)
3. To assess adaptation strategies to climate variability and drought in the study area.

1.4. Research questions

This study sought answers the following research questions:

1. What is climate variability in the study area?
2. What are aspects of metrological drought in the study area?
3. What are adaptation strategies to climate variability and drought in the
study areas?

1.5. Significance of the Study

The study will contribute a better understanding about pastoralist’s vulnerability and local
adaptation response as well as the challenges of adaptation practices in the pastoralist of
Harshin district. In addition to this, it serves as base line information to facilitate and exchange
of ideas among local communities, researchers, planner and policy makers on these issues etc.
In fact, it would generate agitation in the minds of readers and spur further research works on
this subject matter. This study will help governmental, non-governmental organizations and
academics to use it as reference for interventions and researches related to pastoralist’s
vulnerability to drought their adaptation and coping mechanisms.

1.6. Scope of the Study

The scope of the study will be limited to climate change effects on subsistence agriculture,
through identifying constraints and opportunities for adaptation at Harshin Woreda of Somali
Regional State. Geographically the study bounds only Harshin Woreda, particularly the
selected study kebeles. Moreover, thematically the study focuses on the assessment of patterns

5
of climatic variability on subsistence crops, factors influencing indigenous climate change
adaptation practices used by farmers, strategies used for the contribution and integration of
local knowledge in climate change adaptation at different levels.

1.7. Definition of key terms

Climate variability: -There is no internationally agreed definition of the term climate

variability. Climate variability refers to variation in the mean state and other statistics (such as
standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc) of the climate on all temporal and spatial
scales beyond that of individual weather events (IPCC, 2009).

Coping; -is the actual/immediate/ response to crisis on livelihood system in the face of
unwelcome situations, and are considered as short-term response (Berkes and Jolly, 2001)

Coping strategies; - are short-term ways to adapt and adjust to the stress and they almost
inevitably lead to a different state of vulnerability (Adger, 2000)

Drought; - is a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently for the lack of to cause a serious
hydrological imbalance and carries connotations of a moisture deficiency. It is a prolonged
and dry period when there is not enough water for normal needs (UNFCCC, 2007).

Rural livelihood: -means of living and it can cope with, and recover from, stress and shocks,
maintain or enhance its ways of living and provide sustainable livelihoods opportunities for
the next generation (Pavanello, 2009).

Socio-economic: -when human activities are affected by reduced precipitation and related water
availability. This form of drought associates human activities with elements of metrological,
agricultural and hydrological drought (Backerberg and Vinjoen, 2003)

CHAPTER TWO 2. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

2.1 Concepts of climate variability and drought

2.1. Concepts of climate variability

The world has awakened to the reality that our climate shows alarming signs of changing more
rapidly and dramatically than at any time in recorded history (FAO, 2011). The long-term state

6
of the Earth's climate is regulated by the balance between incoming and outgoing energy,
which determines the Earth's energy balance (CACC, 2013). Any factor that causes a
sustained change to the amount of incoming or outgoing energy can lead to climate change
(Petit, 2010). Climate variability may be due to natural internal processes or external forgings,
or to the persistent anthropogenic (resulting from or produced by human beings) changes in
the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (IPCC, 2014). Since industrial revolution,
anthropogenic activities particularly increase in GHGs emissions in to the atmosphere have
contributed to rapid and unprecedented climate variability (NOAA, 2007). The continuous
increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere threatens to dramatically
change the Earth’s climate (Houghton et al., 2001).

Climate variability related events like the occurrences of frequent and recurrent cycle of
droughts in recent decades, spreading of malaria and other health related problems in highland
areas which have never experienced before, loss of biodiversity and decline in wildlife number
have been observed (Wakgari et al., 2005). According to NMSA (2007), temperature
variability has also been observed in the last century as a result of climate variability in
Ethiopia. Moreover, about 0.37 annual minimum temperatures has increased per decade in the
last years. Projections made by the NMSA also indicates mean annual temperature will
increase in the range of 0.9-1.1 by 2030. On the other hand, Rainfall variability is the major
problem for crop and livestock production in Ethiopia. (Abate, 2009) reports that climate
variability has affected the rainfall characteristics mainly by becoming late being erratic or
torrential, and in turn resulting in, unseasonal and unusual occurrence of recurrent cycle of
drought (Ngaira, 2007).

2.2 Concept of drought

Drought is a recurrent climatic phenomenon across the world. It affects humanity in a number
of ways such as causing loss of life, crop failures, food shortages which may lead to famine in
many regions, malnutrition, health issues and mass migration. It also causes huge damage to
the environment and is regarded as a major cause of land degradation, aridity and
desertification. The impacts of droughts are witnessed at a range of geographical scales. For
instance, individual families or communities may lose their livelihoods and source of water,
subject to acute food shortages and health issues and the country’s economy may be severely

7
impacted. The available estimates on drought impacts suggest that, during the period 1900–
2013, there were 642 drought events reported across the world resulting in a huge toll to
humanity, killing about 12 million people and affecting over 2 billion (EMDAT, 2014).

Drought is a complex phenomenon, which varies every time in terms of its onset, intensity,
duration and geographical coverage: (Calow et al., 2010; Clarke et al., 2012). Its events are
characterized by multiple climatologically, hydrological and agricultural parameters and most
recurring hazard in Ethiopia, particularly for pastoral and agro-pastoral communities that
inhabit drought-prone areas (Mishra et al. 2010). Drought cannot be viewed solely as a
physical phenomenon; it is usually defined both conceptually and operationally. For example,
a definition such as “drought is a protracted period of deficient precipitation resulting in
extensive damage to crops, resulting in loss of yield” is a conceptual definition of drought
(Wilhite et al 2007).

Drought induced famine has been the worst disaster in the history of Ethiopia from which
millions of people, mostly rural residents, experienced immense anguish and still remains a
national policy agenda and problem (Abebe, 2010). Ethiopia has a long history of recurring
drought. The recorded history of drought in Ethiopia goes back to the year 250 BC (Webb,
et.al. 1992). There have been many national and localized droughts in the past and
communities managed most of them through their own coping mechanisms (DPPC, 2004). It
has been documented that between the 19th century and the Great Ethiopian Famine of 1888-
1892, thirteen drought years were recorded (DPPC, 2004). However, since the 1970s, the
magnitude, frequency, and impacts of drought have become more sever, in terms of frequency,
area covered and the number of people affected (DPPC, 2004; ISDR/WB, 2009).

2.2.1 Major types and features of drought

Since drought is a human concept, it is difficult to give universally accepted definition because
conditions which might be considered to constitute it vary over time and space. Most studies
on drought deal with moisture deficiencies in terms of impacts to human activities, especially
those involving agriculture. The definition and perception of it varies with climate. However,
the difficulty of definition arises because whether or not lack of water constitutes a drought
depends very much on the local conditions and the particular needs for water which prevail:

8
Wilhite et al (2007). The drought are generally classified in to three categories or types of
drought, which include:

2.2.2. Metrological drought

Meteorological drought is defined as a usually on the basis of the degree of dryness (in
comparison to some “normal” or average amount) and the duration of the dry period. It is
based on solely on departures of rainfall from expected amounts. So, the definition of
meteorological drought must be considered as region specific since the atmospheric conditions
that result in deficiencies of precipitation are highly variable from region to region. It is also
occurs when there is a below average natural precipitation in a given periods of time
(Mokhtari, 2005).

2.2.3. Agricultural drought

Agricultural drought links various characteristics of meteorological drought to agricultural

impacts, focusing on precipitation shortages, differences between actual and potential
evapotranspiration and soil water deficits. It happens after meteorological drought but before
hydrological drought Wilhite et al (2007). A good definition of agricultural drought should be
able to account for the variable susceptibility of crops during different stages of crop
development, from emergence to maturity. Deficient to topsoil moisture at planting may
hinder germination, leading to low plant populations per hectares and reduction of final yields.
However, if topsoil moisture is sufficient at this early stage, it may not affect final yield:
(Verdin, 2007).

2.2.3. Hydrological drought

his type of drought occurs when there is a reduction in stream flow which adversely affects
human activities. There is marked reduction in stream flow and ground water levels or the
depletion of water stored in surface reservoirs and lakes for water supply purpose. It is
associated with the effects of periods of precipitation on surface or subsurface water supply
(i.e., stream flow, reservoir and lake levels, and ground water). The frequency and severity of
hydrological drought is on a watershed or river basin scale Wilhite et al (2007). In general,

9
meteorological drought onset is first, followed by agricultural, then hydrological. The
sequence is similar for recovery.

Drought differ from other natural hazards such as cyclone, flood, earthquake, volcano and
tsunami in several ways First, since the impacts of drought often accumulate slowly over a
considerable period of time and may linger for years after the termination of the events, the
onset and end of drought is difficult to determine. Because of this, drought is often referred to
as a creeping phenomenon. Second, drought impacts are non-structural, in contrast to, the
impacts of floods, hurricanes, and most other natural hazards. Its impacts are spread over a
larger geographical area than damages that result from other natural hazards (Wilhite, 2004).

For these reasons, the quantification of impacts and the provision of disaster relief are far more
difficult tasks for drought than they are for other natural hazards. These features of drought
have hindered the development of accurate, reliable, and timely estimates of severity and
impacts and, ultimately, the formulation of drought contingency plans by most governments.
Drought severity is dependent not only on the duration, intensity, and spatial extent of a
drought, but also on the demands made by human activities and vegetation on a region’s water
supplies. The characteristics of drought, along with its far-reaching impacts, make its impacts
on society, economy, and environment difficult to identify and quantify (World Bank, 2010)

This continues to represent a formidable challenge to those scientists involved in operational

climate assessments. In addition to this, other essential features of drought are: - intensity,
duration, and spatial coverage. Intensity refers to the degree of the precipitation shortfall
and/or the severity of impacts associated with the shortfall. It is generally measured by the
departure of some climatic index from normal and is closely linked to duration in the
determination of impact. Another distinguishing feature of drought is its duration. Droughts
usually require a minimum of two to three months to become established but then can continue
for months or years. The magnitude of drought impacts is closely related to the timing of the
onset of the precipitation shortage, its intensity, and the duration of the event. Droughts also
differ in terms of their spatial characteristics. The areas affected by severe drought evolve
gradually, and regions of maximum intensity shift from season-to-season Wilhite et al .(2007).

2.3. Impact of climate variability and drought

10
Pastoralism vulnerability that has been used by different studies revolves around the
explaining of vulnerability as lack of adaptive capacity in both social and natural system:
sensitivity and exposure to hazard (Adger and Kelly, 1999; Deressa, 2010; Acheampong et al.,
2014). Vulnerability to drought refers to the amount of harm that would result from drought
events on society over exact place and time. As a result, (IPCC, 2001) report defines climate
vulnerability as it is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with,
adverse effects of drought/climate change.
Although, not only depends on a system’s sensitivity but it’s also on adaptive capacity (IPCC,
2001). (Fussel 2007) and (Fussel and Klein 2006) argued that the (IPCC 2001) definition,
which is conceptualizes the vulnerability to climate as a function of adaptive capacity,
sensitivity, and exposure, accommodates the integrated approach to vulnerability analysis. The
African continents are more vulnerable to effects of climate change. As a result of global
warming, the climate in Africa is estimated to become more erratic, and extreme weather
events are likely to be more recurrent and harsher, with increasing risk to health and life. Arid
and semi- arid regions are the major areas to be vulnerable especially in Western and eastern
part of the continent (Mironer, 2009). Vulnerability has three elements: Exposure, Sensitivity
and Adaptive capacity.
Direct impacts or primary impacts are usually physical / material and include reduced
agricultural production; increased fire hazard; depleted water levels; higher livestock and
wildlife mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitats. When direct impacts have
multiplier effects through the economy and society, they are referred to as indirect impacts.
These include a reduction in agricultural production that may result in reduced income for
farmers and agribusiness, increased prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced
purchasing capacity and demand for consumption, default on agricultural loans, rural unrest,
and reduction in agricultural employment leading to migration and drought relief programmes.
The more removed the impact from the cause, the more complex is the link to the cause. These
multiplier effects are often so diffuse that it is very difficult to generate financial estimates of
actual losses caused by a drought (Wilhite, 2005).

2.3.1. Social Impacts

11
Social impacts such as population migration, impacts on health and schooling of children,
hopelessness and sense of loss, conflicts in society for water, and malnutrition due to changed
food preferences are the most known. During climate variability and drought times, water
level goes down and springs and streams decrease significantly and some even dry up. In
addition to failure in crop production, sanitation will lose attention under the prevalence of
drought conditions. This is so because of personal hygiene such as washing of body, cloth, etc.
require the availability and supply of water (FAO, 2014). The prevalence of drought forces
people to look for opportunities for survival including abandoning their home and migrating to
camps where they see some temporary help to rescue their life. Those who are unable to move
or cope up with the drought are doomed to perish. As drought persists human and livestock
death toll increases compounded by poor sanitation and deteriorating natural environment. On
the other hand, drought shock increases the prevalence of diarrhea among the children.

In addition to threatening the health and welfare of children, the recurrent drought is also
effectively suspending their education. Primary schools are closing down as children leave to
help support individual family incomes during severe drought event. In many parts of the
region, the effects of drought on ecosystems have begun to compromise the traditional
livelihoods and lifestyles of indigenous peoples who depend on them. The increased drought
risks to agriculture, property, infrastructure, and ecosystems are likely to have negative
impacts on health by impeding access to safe water sources and sufficient food (FAO, 2014).

2.3.2 Economic impacts

It refers to production losses in agriculture and related sectors, especially forestry and
fisheries, because these sectors rely on surface and subsurface water supplies and affect
virtually all aspects of agricultural and other water-intensive activity and impact on a large
proportion of households, with far-reaching consequences throughout the economy. The
recurrent drought episodes experienced reveal that droughts are not once off disasters
(Andersson et al, 2009). The frequent phenomena that can be forecasted and they will occur at
least in the foreseeable future. Droughts entail loss of assets in the form of crops, livestock,
and productive capital damaged as a direct consequence of water shortages. Some of the
droughts had a drastic impact on agricultural out-put, with total crop failure and massive
livestock deaths being recorded in many parts of the country. For instance, the 1984 drought in

12
Tigray led to a 61% and 94% decline in the yield of teff and sorghum, respectively (Mulat,
2004).

Degradation of the agricultural resource base, particularly through intensified land use of the
ecologically fragile land by a rapidly growing population together with over grazing,
deforestation and soil erosion, has been partly responsible for the increasing vulnerability.
Such practice aggravates the vulnerability of the region to drought. Drought affects cropping
systems directly and indirectly through a range of pathways. The effects are mediated through
the farmer’s management of the interactions between crops and their growth environment,
which depend crucially on available resources, including climate, soil, water, nutrients, genetic
diversity, and machinery (Chauhan et al, 2014).

Drought also affects livestock production in two ways: -indirectly, by influencing the
productivity of grassland and hence the quantity and quality of fodder, and directly by causing
more heat- and disease-related stress and death. In regions that are currently warm and dry, it
will mostly affect both those aspects negatively. Drought could be particularly damaging to
countries in Africa, and Ethiopia, being dependent on rain fed agriculture and under heavy
pressure from food insecurity and often famine (Chauhan et al, 2014).

2.4. Local adaptation strategies of climate variability and drought

Studies show that over the course of centuries, pastoralists have developed various strategies
to adapt to their harsh environment, and offset risks or to cope with impacts of hazards
(drought), disasters (famines) and external intrusions (Abdel Ghaffar and Abdel, 1996;
Egeimi, 1996:35; Rass, 2006:34). They have developed various means and ways whereby they
combine and use their assets and knowledge to achieve individual and collective goals. Many
authors have identified a portfolio of adaptive and coping strategies pursued by pastoral
households and communities to adapt to and cope with risks and uncertainties (Scoones, 1996;
Egeimi, 1996; Ali, 1996; Assefa, 1996; Bayer and Waters-Bayer, 1996; Ahmed et al., 2002;
Sommer, 1998; Fasil et al., 2001; Dereveux, 2006; Rass, 2006).

Agricultural sector is adversely affected by climate change and variability. This can minimize
the negative effect by using adaptation strategies like adjustment of planting and crop variety,
crop relocation, improved land management (e.g. erosion control and soil protection through

13
tree planting). Similarly, adaptation strategies that the smallholder farmers used to reduce the
effect of climate change. These adaptation strategies are like changing crop variety, changing
planting date, mix crop and livestock production, planting trees, soil and water management,
off-farm employment and irrigation/water harvesting (Deressa et al., 2009, Nhemachena and
Hassan, 2007) Farm-level adaptation strategies is important to provide information that can be
used to formulate policies that enhance adaptation as a tool for managing a variety of risks
associated with climate change in farm household (Nhemachena & Hassan, 2007). Adaptation
strategies are also necessary to tackle adverse effects from higher temperature and changing
precipitation patterns (Kurukulasuriya P. & Mendelsohn R, 2007). Therefore, a key
component of climate adaptation includes building resilience, where resilience is the capacity
of a system to tolerate disturbance without collapsing into a qualitatively different state that is
controlled by a different set of processes (FAO, 2009).

2.5. Conceptual framework

Conceptual framework is designed to give a comprehensive understanding of the drivers and

processes that effect of drought and vulnerability of society. In an altering social, economic,
and natural environment, this framework should finally help stakeholders indicate, estimate,
and model different vulnerability and adptation pathways in a community. According
toadopted from frankenberger et al., (2012) in muluken (2017). The effects of drought require
knowledge of historical drought characteristics and clearly understood definitions of drought,
with the latter being especially important in planning because the definition of drought can
vary among different disciplines. Drought is most often defined as the persistence of a
precipitation deficit over a specific region and period of time, with other definitions also
including the effects of the drought or indicator variables such as evapotranspiration, soil
moisture, near-surface-air temperature, streamflow, groundwater level, and vegetation cover.

Drought can be classified as falling into one of five categories depending on effects and
duration: Meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, socioeconomic, and ecological. The first
three types of physical drought typically occur in sequence, while socioeconomic and
ecological drought can occur at any point in a drought’s progression. Meteorological drought
is defined by the degree of dryness and the duration of the dry period. This deficiency of
precipitation typically depletes soil moisture, and if a subsequent crop failure results from a

14
lack of precipitation, this is then known as agricultural drought. When dry conditions continue
to persist and eventually affect surface water and groundwater supply, this is called
hydrological drought. Socioeconomic drought considers the human demand for economic
goods and is defined as when societal demand for goods exceeds supply as a result of a
weather-related deficit in the water supply. This can also encompass the variable effects of
drought on different groups of people, with effects being determined by access to resources
and other political factors, and conflicts that may arise over limited resources.

15
Figure1: Conceptual framework
Source. adopted from frankenberger et al., (2012) in muluken (2017)

CHAPTER THREE 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1. Description of study Area

3.1.1. Location

Harshin woreda is located 730 km away from the capital city of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa. The
district covers a total area of 5120.12 km 2 and borders Kebribeyah District in the west,
Somaliland to the north and east, and Aware and Degehabur Districts to the east and south,
respectively. The district is geographically located between longitude 9° and 21° in the north,
42° and 48° in the east, 29° and 35° in the west and 42° and 53° in the south-east(Figure 2) . Its
altitude ranges from 1302 m to 1700 m above sea level.

16
Figure 2: Map of the study area

3.1.2 Topography and soil

Ecologically, Harshin District is described as semi-arid lowland, the Soil is mostly red and
sandy with high water permeability in all of Harshin district (SC-UK and DPPB, 2008).

Land is a crucial asset in both farming and pastoral sections of the rural societies in pastoralists
communities land is communal property owned by the clan members collectively. The
members of clan use it freely for all purposes except transfer to third party. The major
Agricultural crops in the woreda include wheat, maize and sorghum. In many parts of Harshin
maize is grown for its straws for livestock feeding during the dry seasons so more than for
human consumption or yielding advantage. Despite its high potential, the sector is
characterized by small scale peasant holdings, dependence on rainfall and hence low
productivity. In addition to the use of traditional farming tools, in Harshin the sector is entirely
dependent on unpredictable rainfall.

17
3.1.3 Climate and drainage

The climate is generally hot and dry, with an average annual rainfall is 300-400 mm. The
northern part of the district falling during two rainy seasons, the ‘Diraa’ rains (mid-Mar to
mid-May) and the heavier ‘Karan’ rains (mid-Jul to mid-Oct); while the southern part falling
during two rainy seasons – ‘Gu’ (Apr - Jun) and ‘Deyr’ (Oct – Dec), sometimes it also
receives ‘Karan’ rains (Fiona et al., 2011). Water is an indispensable commodity for the
survival of all living things on our planet The majority of the population in the woreda uses
unprotected water such as spring water; ponds, birkas and rain water. Birka and seasonal
ponds are the main water sources (SC-UK and DPPB, 2008; Catley and Alula, 2010). The
main vulnerabilities are recurrent drought; extreme water shortage.

3.1.4. Population Characteristics and Socio-economic Setting

Based on the 2007 Census conducted by the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia (CSA), this
woreda has a total population of 80,244, of whom 43,869 are men and 36,375 women. While
8,226 or 10.25% are urban inhabitants, a further 39,275 or 48.95% are pastoralists. 99.39% of
the population said they were Muslim. The 1994 national census reported a total population
for this woreda of 66,488, of whom 35,145 were men and 31,343 were women; 6,409 or

9.64% were urban inhabitants. The largest ethnic group reported in Harshin was the Somali
people (99. 89%). Livestock and livestock products are sources of the pastoralist’s livelihood
in the Harshin area. Wealth is determined by livestock ownership in the Harshin area. The land
is owned by clans, but access to past in somehow is free in rainy seasons but not in dry
seasons due to recently area enclosures privately owned by individual households. The main
vulnerabilities are recurrent drought; extreme water shortage; livestock export restrictions and
general market shocks; animal and human diseases; poor transport and communication
infrastructure.

Usually, one rain failure is enough to cause a „drought‟ situation and the poorer of such
communities easily find themselves in situations in which they need external assistance.
However, if these shocks do not cause substantial mortality of livestock a few consecutive
spots of rain would normally help them recover quickly. The rural livelihood of Harshin
woreda is not different. Livelihood in the area is entirely dependent on small-scale rain, fed
farming animal rear; therefore, agro-pastoralists are highly dependent on seasonal rains, which

18
are frequently insufficient for successful farming. The identified vulnerabilities in this
particular Livelihood Zone are: Recurrent droughts that cause crop failure as well as reduce
livestock production or cause mortality, in such cases agro-pastoralists have to depend on the
market to get all their food supplies and yet livestock prices in such times plummet due to their
poor physical condition and oversupply to the market.

3.1.5 Vegetation and wild animals

Natural resources such as water and forage vegetation play a key role in providing fodder and
water points for livestock production in the Woreda. Grasses and browse species in a
rangeland are the key sources of feed for livestock in the study area Livestock plays a vital
role in the economy of the Harshin in particular since most of its residents are engaged in
livestock rearing and production. In general, livestock provides food (milk, meat), hides and
skins, cash income etc), draught power for cultivation, serve as a means of transportation and
as a saving or hoarding and Dia paying (blood compensation). They are also kept for prestige
as an indication of social status and wealth in the society. Despite the role they play in the life
of the people, their outputs (milk, meat, butter, egg, power off-springs, etc) have remained
low. Poor nutrition, prevalence of diseases and insufficient veterinary services, traditional
animal husbandry practices and poor genetic potential of the local breeds are some of the
detrimental factors that affect the productivity of the livestock in the Woreda.Some of the
common wild animals which are found in the Degahabur Woreda are: -Hyena, Monkey, Grafe,
fox etc.

3.2. Research Design

A mixed research method (qualitative and quantitative) will be used. This will be important to
capture both quantitative and qualitative data. In the qualitative approach, semi-structured
interviews, key informant interview and focus group discussions will be carried out to gather
the qualitative data. On the other hand, quantitative approach involves the measurement of
quantity or amount and is used to quantify and see the relationship among variables.

3.3. Type and source of data

The study will be used both primary and secondary sources of data. The primary data will be
gathered from questionnaires, focus group discussion (FGDs), key informant’s interviews

19
(KIIs) and field observations. The secondary data will be also gathered through an extensive
review of existing literature and official reports. In addition to this, secondary data will be
obtained from various published and unpublished sources of the governmental and the
nongovernmental organizations. Moreover, books, journals, internet sources, metrological
data, research reports, archives and records will be employed for acquiring necessary
information.

3.4. Sampling technique and sample size determination

3.4.1. Sampling techniques

Purposive sampling will be used to select the study woreda and simple random sampling
approach will be adopted to select sampling kebeles and household heads Stratification will be
based on dominant livelihood activities practiced by households in the study area. Firstly,
kebeles will be identified and stratified into pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. Accordingly,
from the study Woreda involving two pastoralist kebeles and two agro-pastoralist kebeles, will
be randomly selected. After random selection of the study kebeles, the total number of
household heads will be 255 household heads

3.4.2 Sample size determination

The study will be used simplified formula provided by Yamane (1967) will be used to
determine the required sample size at 95% confidence level, 0.5 degree of variability and 9%
(0.09) level of precision.

n=
Where: N= number of
= household heads; n= sample size; e= margin of error at 5% n=

3.5. Data collection instruments

3.5.1. Reconnaissance Visit
Initially, a reconnaissance survey of the study Woreda and sample Kebeles will be conducted
prior to commencement of the actual study. The objective will be to meet participants like
local administrators, extension officers and local elders, nongovernmental organizations and
introduce the study objectives and collect preliminary information on the topic beforehand.

20
The Woreda/kebele administration, pastoral and agriculture office, NGO staffs and experts
including local elders will be involved in the informal introductory survey meeting. The
reconnaissance survey will be useful as it helps in providing more insights into areas that the
stakeholders prioritized for the study assessment, which later enabled the researcher to better
understand the peculiarities of the study area and identification of the local enumerator for the
households’ interview.

3.5.2. Questionnaire
A structured questionnaire will be administered through individual interviews with the heads
of the households in two kebeles of Harshin woreda. The questionnaire will be used to collect
quantitative data from individual household heads such as their household demographic
characteristics, socio-economic status, livelihood system, perception on climate change and its
effect, adaptation strategies, types of shocks etc. To make it convenient and simple for
understanding, all the questions will be translated into local languages (Af-Somali). In order to
avoid redundancy of respondent households and make the research valid, sample households
were selected randomly. Close-ended and open-ended question will be constructed to collect
valid information from rural households in the study area.

3.5.3. Focus Group Discussions

Focused group discussion helps to generate data at community level and involves a small
group of respondents to discuss on issues forwarded by the facilitator who is a skilled
moderator focusing on key issues of the research topic (Mwanje, 2001). In this study focus
group discussions will be based on the checklist and will be facilitated by the researcher. The
main purpose of the focus group discussions is to collect qualitative data to get insights on and
understand local knowledge on climate change and variability and its impacts on local
communities’ livelihood, resilience, adaptation practices and coping strategies. to complement
the household questionnaire data, individuals from the sampled Kebeles and various
organizations will be selected as per their roles and responsibilities and interviewed as key
informants. 15 respondents from local clan leaders, Woreda and regional level experts who
had long experience about the local climate, resources, livelihoods, and policies will be
included in the key informant interviews. Four focus group discussions will be conducted

21
separately with each of the livelihood (two from pastoralists and two from agro-pastoralists)
groups. The discussions will be aimed at capturing the local knowledge on climate change and
variability and its impacts on local communities’ livelihood, resilience, adaptation and coping
strategies.
3.5.4. Key informant interview

The KIIs will be conducted in order to qualitative data to support quantitative data or
questionnaire data. The informant interviews will be conducted with different individuals at
different levels. In all the sample kebele, interview will be conducted with elderly informants
composed of both men and women, and experts with gender, environmental and agricultural
back grounds. At kebele level, individual interviews which conduct with elderly people,
thinking that they have sufficient knowledge about the area and be able to memorize well the
historical climate trends including. In addition, experts with gender and agriculture
backgrounds in both kebele and district level will be interviewed. Especially, the agricultural
experts at each kebele and district level will be interviewed about the status of climate change
in the area including its impact on the communities’ livelihood activities major adaptation
strategies practiced by households.

3.5.5. Field Observation

Besides the researcher used field observation through transect walks to collect qualitative data
in sample Kebeles to get some insights on the effect of change and variability and its impacts
on local communities’ livelihood, resilience, adaptation and coping strategies. On the
biophysical and socioeconomic environment including the status of rangelands and the
livestock bases alongside with settlement patterns as well as traditional and
government/donor-induced livelihood interventions implemented in the study area intending to
reduce their vulnerabilities to climate variability and impact of drought. In order to do so,
transect walk will conduct with the guidance of kebele agricultural experts including voluntary
farmers together with the researcher. The field observation will help to complement the
information gathered through formal survey, key informant interview and focus group
discussions.

3.6. Data analysis and processing

22
Data analysis is a way of finding answers through interpreting the data and results in to
meaningful information. The purpose of analysis is to reduce data to an intelligible and
interpretable form so that the relations of research problems can be studied tested and
conclusions drawn. Therefore, for this study, quantitative data collected through structured
questionnaires, interviews and field observation from either primary and/or secondary sources
will be used.

Data collected from both primary and secondary sources will be ordered, presented and
analyzed by quantitative and qualitative methods of data analysis. Some household heads
survey data will be analyzed by using descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation,
frequency, percentages, Bar graph, Pie chart,) and inferential statistics (one-way ANOVA) by
using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software of version 20 and
metrological data were calculated by using excel and presented by graphs and charts.
Standardized precipitation index and coefficient of variation will be used as description of
rainfall variability and drought severity index (Bewket and Conway, 2007 and Ayalew et al.,
2012). Standardized precipitation Index (SPI) wwill be calculated as the difference between
the annual total of a particular year and the long-term average rainfall records divided by
standard deviation of the long term data. Standardized precipitation Index is used to examine
the nature of the trends and enable to determine the dry (negative values) and wet (positive
values) years in the record. Its formula is given as:

SPI

= …………………………………………………………… (2)
Where SPI is standardized precipitation index

xis precipitation, x is mean of precipitation

and σ is standard deviation.

Coefficient of Variation (CV) will be calculated to evaluate annual and seasonal variability of
the rainfall and its characteristics. CV will be calculated by dividing the standard deviation of
the event to its mean. u is mean of precipitation.

23
Where CV is coefficient of variation

σis standard deviation u is mean of

precipitation.

4.Work plan

Table 1: Time frame of the research activities

Activities 2023 GC
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Proposal development
Proposal submission and
defense
Questionnaire development
Kebeles and households’
selection
Data collection
Data entering & analysis
Thesis write up
Report submission &
presentation

5.BUDGET BREAKDOWN

24
Table 2: Stationary cost
No Item Unit Quantity Unit price Total
1. Note book Number 1 50 50
2. Pens Pcs 1 200 200
3. Pencils Pcs 1 150 150
4. Marker Pcs 1 250 250
5. White papers for questionnaire Pin 1 700 700
Subtotal 1,300

Table 3: Per-diem expenses

No Description No of persons No of days Per-diem rate Total
1 Student 1 30 189 5,670
2 advisors 2 8000
Subtotal 17,170

Table 4: Field data collection expense

No Persons No of persons No of days Rate Total
1 Data collectors 3 9 189 5,103
2 Transport - - - 1,500
Subtotal 6,603

Table 5: Budget summary

No Description Total
1 Stationary expense 1,300
2 Per-diem and related expenses 8,000
3 Field data collection expense 6,603
Grand total 15,903

25
References
Adger, W. N. 2006. Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 268–281.

Amare, A. e. 2019. Index-based livestock insurance to manage climate risks in Borena zone of
southern Oromia, Ethiopia. . Climate Risk Management, 25, 1–16.

Anderson, S. 2019. The critical role of markets in climate change adaptation. Climate Change
Economics, 10(1), 1–17.

Arjjumend, H. 2018. Review of Pastoralists’ Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change:

Can Technology Help Pastoralists Mitigate The Risks? International Journal of
Bioresource and Stress Management:Centre for International Sustainable
Development Law C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-ville, Montreal, Quebec, (C H3C
3J7), Canada, 9(1):118-128.

Ayal, D.Y. & Leal Filho, W. 2017. Farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and its adverse
impacts on crop and livestock production in Ethiopia’, . Journal of Arid Environments,
140, 20–28.

Biglari, T., Maleksaeidi, H., Eskandari, F. and Jalali, M. 2019. Livestock insurance as a
mechanism for household resilience of livestock herders to climate change: Evidence
from Iran. Land use policy, 87, p.104043.

Conway, D. a. 2010. Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities

identified from Ethiopia. . Global Environmental Change.

26
Debela, N., McNeil, D., Bridle, K. & Mohammed, C. 2019. Adaptation to climate change in
the pastoral and agropastoral systems of Borana, South Ethiopia: Options and barriers.
American Journal of Climate Change , 8(1), 40–60.

Deressa, T.T., Hassan, R.M. & Claudia, R. 2008. Analysis of the determinants of farmers’
choice of adaptation methods and perceptions of climate change in the Nile Basin of
Ethiopia [in Amharic] (No. 15 (9) AMH), . Washington, DC: International Food
Policy.

Dupar, M. 2019. Le Rapport spécial du GIEC sur le changement climatique et les terres
émergées: Quels impacts pour l’Afrique? . Cape Town: Climate and Development
Knowledge Network, Overseas Development Institute.

Etal, v. L. 2016. Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions,

understanding, and analysis approaches. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20,
3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016.

FAO. 2001. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Pastoralism in the new
millennium. . Animal Production and Health Paper No. 150, UN Food and Agriculture
Organization, Rome, Italy.

Fraser, E. D. 2007. Travelling in antique lands: studying past famines to understand present
vulnerabilities to climate change. . Climate Change 83:495-514.

Fratkin, E. 2014. Ethiopia’s pastoralist policies: Development, displacement and resettlement.

Nomadic Peoples, 18(1), 94–114.

Girmay, F.D., Gebreselassie, G. & Bajigo, A. 2018. Climate change risk management and
coping strategies for sustainable camel production in the case of Somali Region,
Ethiopia. Journal of Biotechnology Research, 4(9), 66–75.

González Tánago, I., Urquijo, J., Blauhut, V., Villarroya, F., and de Stefano, L. 2016.
Learning from experience: a systematic review of assessments of vulnerability to
drought. Natural Hazards, 80, 951–973

Hagenlocher, M., Meza, I., Anderson, C.C., Min, A., Renaud, F.G., Walz, Y., Siebert, S. and
Sebesvari, Z. 2019. Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art,

27
 persistent gaps, and research agenda. Environmental Research Letters, 14(8),
p.083002.

Haslinger, K. and Blöschl, G. 2017. Space-Time Patterns of Meteorological Drought Events in

the European Greater Alpine Region Over the Past 210 Years,. Water Resources
Research, 53, 9807–9823.

Hurst, M., Jensen, N., Pedersen, S., Shama, A. and Zambriski, J. 2012. Changing climate
adaptation strategies of Boran pastoralists in southern Ethiopia.

Igarashi, K., Koichiro, K., Tanaka, N. and Aranyabhaga, N. 2019. Prediction of the impact of
climate change and land use change on flood discharge in the Song Khwae District,
Nan Province, Thailand. Journal of Climate Change, 5(1), pp.1-8.

Khanal, U., Wilson, C., Hoang, V.N. and Lee, B. 2018. Farmers' adaptation to climate change,
its determinants and impacts on rice yield in Nepal. Ecological Economics, 144,
pp.139-147.

Kuang, F. e. 2019. Influence of livelihood capital on adaptation strategies: Evidence from rural
household in Wushen Barner, China. Land Use Policy, 89, 1–9.

MEA. 2005. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA). 2005. Ecosystems and human
wellbeing. Volume I:Current State and Trends. Findings of the Condition and Trends
Working Group. . Island Press,Washington, D.C., USA.

Mengistu, D and J Haji . 2015. Factors affecting the choices of coping strategies for climate
extremes: The case of Yabello district, Borana Zone, Oromia National Regional State,
Ethiopia. Science Research, 3(4), 129–136.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA). 2005. Ecosystems and human well-being.

Volume I:. (n.d.).

Mitchell, D. 2008. A note on rising food prices. World Bank, Washington D.C.

Mittal, A. 2009. The 2008 food price crisis: rethinking food security policies. UN, New York
and Geneva.

28
Nori, M., and J. Davies. 2007. Change of wind or wind of change? Climate change, adaptation
and pastoralism. The World Initiative for Sustainable Pastoralism International Union
for Conservation of Nature, Nairobi, Kenya.

Ojima, D., Togtokh, C., & Altanbagana, M. 2014. Vulnerability and resilience of the
Mongolian pastoral social-ecological systems to multiple stressors. In K. Ademola, &
H. Q. Huang, V. Vulnerability of Land Systems in Asia (pp. 27-40). New Delhi: Wiley
Pres.

Opiyo, F. e. 2015. Drought adaptation and coping strategies among the Turkana pastoralists of
Northern Kenya. International Journal of Disaster Risk Sciences, 6, 295–309.

Stephan, R., Erfurt, M., Terzi, S., Žun, M., Kristan, B., Haslinger, K., and Stahl, K. 2021. An
inventory of Alpine drought impact reports to explore past droughts in a mountain
region. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 21, 2485–2501.

Tadese, A. & Alemayehu M. 2017. Impacts of climate change on food security and its
adaptation and mitigation options in Ethiopia: A review’, in Impact of El Niño on
biodiversity, agriculture, and food security 23–24 February 2017 Haramaya University,
Et.

Terzi, S., Sušnik, J., Schneiderbauer, S., Torresan, S., and Critto, A. 2021. Stochastic system
dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity 665 assessment of a reservoir in
the Italian Alps. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 21, 3.

Troy, S. 2015. Drought and extreme climate stress on human-environment systems in the Gobi
desert Mongolia. In K. Ademola, & Q. H. He,. Vulnerability of Land Systems in Asia
(pp. 11-22). New Delhi: Wiley.

UNOCHA. 2007. The Future of Pastoralism in Ethiopia. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia:UN OCHA
Pastoralist Communication Initiative.

WISP. 2007. Pastoralists’ species and ecosystems knowledge as the basis for land
management (World Initiative for Sustainable Pastoralism). WISPPolicy Brief, 5:1-4.

Zebisch, M., Schneiderbauer, S., Fritzsche, K., Bubeck, P., Kienberger, S., Kahlenborn, W.,
Schwan, S., and Below, T. 2021. The vulnerability sourcebook and climate impact

29
 chains – a standardised framework for a climate vulnerability and risk assessment,
Inter. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, ahead-
ofprint, .

APPROVAL SHEET HARAMAYA UNIVERSITY POSTGRAGUATE

PROGRAM DIRECTORATE
PASTORAL VULNERABILITY AND LOCAL ADAPTATION PRACTICES TO
DROUGHT: THE CASE OF HARSHIN DISTRICT, FAFAN ZONE SOMALI
REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA

Submitted by:

Adnan Abdi Ahmed______ __________________ ________________

Name of Student Signature Date

Approved by:

1. Tegegne_Sishaw (PhD)_______ _________________ _______________

Name of Major Advisor Signature Date

2. Admasu Bogale (PhD)______ _________________ ________________

Name of Co-Advisor Signature Date

3. ___________________ _________________ ________________

Research thematic area leader Signature Date

4. ___________________ _________________ ________________

Name of Chairman, DGC/SGC Signature Date

5. ___________________ __________________ _________________

Director, PGPD Signature Date

30
31