Energy Systems, Summer Semester 2024

Lecture 2: Energy Balances

Prof. Tom Brown, Philipp Glaum

Department of Digital Transformation in Energy Systems, Institute of Energy Technology, TU Berlin

Unless otherwise stated, graphics and text are Copyright ©Tom Brown, 2018-2024. Material for which no other
attribution are given are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence. cb
Table of Contents

1. Measuring energy

2. Energy conversion

3. Energy Balances

1
Measuring energy
Goal: Understand Energy Flow Through the Economy

Example: energy balance for Germany in 2022 in Petajoule (PJ)

2
Source: AG Energiebilanzen, 2023
Example: Sankey diagram for US in 2022

3
Source: LLNL, 2023
Definitions: Primary Versus Final Versus Useful Energy

Definitions of energy are oriented towards conventional energy sources like coal, oil and gas.

ˆ Primary energy is energy as found in nature before it undergoes any transformation (crude oil,
coal, gas, biomass, nuclear, wind, solar).

ˆ Secondary energy is energy after conversion processes, either chemical or physical (refined fuels
like gasoline, electricity from a coal power plant).

ˆ Final energy is the energy as it is sold to end users (electricity, refined fuels like gasoline, gas for
building heating).

ˆ Useful energy is the energy after conversion by the consumer, available to be used (heat in a
home, light, mechanical work).

ˆ Energy services is what the consumer actually wants: a warm home, transportation from A to B,
manufactured goods, etc.

The two most commonly used definitions are primary and final energy, since they are easier to
measure in a fossil-fuelled world. With more focus on renewables and electrification, this may change! 4
Classification of Energy Sources

5
Source: OECD/IEA Energy Statistics Manual, 2005
Units of Energy: Joule and tonne of oil equivalent

Joule (J) is the SI unit of energy.

Conventional primary energy sources are often measured in units corresponding to their natural
form: volume, mass etc.
We can convert from measurements of mass [kg] and volume [m3 ] to energy units using the
calorific value [J/kg, J/m3 ], which measures the heat from combustion.
Example: the unit tonne of oil equivalent (toe) is the energy generated by burning one
metric ton of oil. Since the calorific value of oil is 41.88 MJ/kg, we have

1 toe = 41.88 GJ

[Reminder: k = kilo = 1e3, M = Mega = 1e6, G = Giga = 1e9, T = Tera = 1e12, P = Peta
= 1e15, E = Exa = 1e18.]

6
Lower Heating Values of Energy Fuels

7
Higher and Lower Heating Values

ˆ Lower Heating Value (LHV) is the maximum amount of usable heat from combustion
without counting the condensation enthalpy of water vapor contained in the exhaust gas.
ˆ Higher Heating Value (HHV) includes the condensation enthalpy of water vapor
contained in the exhaust gas. It is always higher than the LHV (e.g. 11% higher for
methane).

LHV is most commonly used in European statistics. HHV becomes relevant in e.g. condensing
combined heat and power plants (CHP) where vapor is condensed. 8
Power: Flow of energy

Power is the rate of consumption of energy.

It is measured in Watts:
1 Watt = 1 Joule per second
The symbol for Watt is W, 1 W = 1 J/s.
1 kilo-Watt = 1 kW = 1,000 W
1 mega-Watt = 1 MW = 1,000,000 W
1 giga-Watt = 1 GW = 1,000,000,000 W
1 tera-Watt = 1 TW = 1,000,000,000,000 W

9
Power: Examples of consumption

At full power, the following items consume:

Item Power

New efficient lightbulb 10 W

Old-fashioned lightbulb 70 W
Single room air-conditioning 1.5 kW
Kettle 2 kW
Factory ∼1-500 MW
CERN 200 MW
Germany total demand 35-80 GW

10
Power: Supplying world’s energy with wind and solar

If all energy is electrified in 2050 and energy consumption equalises between nations, the
average electricity consumption of the world would be around 12 TW.
Suppose half is met with wind (capacity factor 33.3%) and half is met with solar PV (capacity
factor 16.6%). [Capacity factor = average generation / capacity.] How much wind and solar
capacity does the world need (assuming perfect lossless storage)?

11
Source: IRENA Statistics 2023
Power: Supplying world’s energy with wind and solar

If all energy is electrified in 2050 and energy consumption equalises between nations, the
average electricity consumption of the world would be around 12 TW.
Suppose half is met with wind (capacity factor 33.3%) and half is met with solar PV (capacity
factor 16.6%). [Capacity factor = average generation / capacity.] How much wind and solar
capacity does the world need (assuming perfect lossless storage)?

Wind: 6 TW / 0.333 = 18 TW (around 900 GW was installed by 2022)

Solar: 6 TW / 0.166 = 36 TW (around 1050 GW was installed by 2022)

11
Source: IRENA Statistics 2023
Power: Supplying world’s energy with wind and solar

If installed wind density on average is 10 MW/km2 and solar is 72 MW/km2 , what percentage
of world land (510 million km2 ) is taken with each?

12
Power: Supplying world’s energy with wind and solar

If installed wind density on average is 10 MW/km2 and solar is 72 MW/km2 , what percentage
of world land (510 million km2 ) is taken with each?

Wind: 18 TW/(10 MW/km2 ) = 1.8 million km2 (around 0.35% of total land = area of
Indonesia)
Solar: 36 TW/(72 MW/km2 ) = 0.5 million km2 (around 0.1% of total land = area of Spain)

Nota Bene:

ˆ Wind doesn’t interfere with other land uses like agriculture; can also be built offshore
ˆ 10 MW/km2 is a local maximum installation density for wind, but to allow wind
replenishment over large areas 2 MW/km2 is suitable as a wide-area limit
ˆ Solar can be rooftop or combined with agriculture = agrivoltaics
12
Units of energy: Watt-hour

In the electricity sector, energy is usually measured in ‘Watt-hours’, Wh.

1 kWh = power consumption of 1 kW for one hour
E.g. a 10 W lightbulb left on for two hours will consume
10 W * 2 h = 20 Wh
It is easy to convert this back to the SI unit for energy, Joules:
1 kWh = (1000 W) * (1 h) = (1000 J/s)*(3600 s) = 3.6 MJ

13
Yearly energy to power

Germany consumes around 600 TWh per year, written 600 TWh/a.
What is the average power consumption in GW?

14
Yearly energy to power

Germany consumes around 600 TWh per year, written 600 TWh/a.
What is the average power consumption in GW?

(600 TW) ∗ (1 h)
600 TWh/a =
(365 ∗ 24 h)
600
= TW
8760
= 68.5 GW

14
Tables for converting units

Units used in the United States:

ˆ British thermal unit (Btu), 1 million Btu = MBtu (often written MMBtu) = 0.293 MWh
ˆ Quad = 1e15 Btu = 293 TWh
15
Energy conversion
Energy conversion/transformation processes

16
Source: Zweifel, Praktiknjo & Erdmann (2017)
Energy conversion efficiency

Efficiency of an energy conversion device (e.g. power plant, vehicle engine):

Useful energy output

Efficiency, η =
Energy input

Example: How much much natural gas is required for generating 100 MWh of electricity in a
gas power plant with an efficiency of 50%?

17
Efficiency

When fuel is consumed, much/most of the energy of the fuel is lost as waste heat rather than
being converted to electricity.
The thermal energy, or calorific value, of the fuel is given in terms of MWhth , to distinguish it
from the electrical energy MWhel .
The ratio of input thermal energy to output electrical energy is the efficiency.

Fuel Calorific energy Per unit efficiency Electrical energy

MWhth /tonne MWhel /MWhth MWhel /tonne

Lignite 2.5 0.4 1.0

Hard Coal 6.7 0.45 2.7
Gas (CCGT) 15.4 0.58 8.9
Uranium (unenriched) 150000 0.33 50000

18
Fuel costs to marginal costs

The cost of a fuel is often given in e/kg or e/MWhth .

Using the efficiency, we can convert this to e/MWhel .
For the full marginal cost, we have to also add the CO2 price and the variable operation and
maintenance (VOM) costs.

Fuel Per unit efficiency Cost per thermal Cost per elec.
MWhel /MWhth e/MWhth e/MWhel

Lignite 0.4 4.5 11

Hard Coal 0.45 11 24
Gas (CCGT) 0.58 19 33
Uranium 0.33 3.3 10

19
CO2 emissions per MWh

The CO2 emissions of the fuel.

Fuel tCO2 /t tC02 /MWhth tCO2 /MWhel

Lignite 0.9 0.36 0.9

Hard Coal 2.4 0.36 0.8
Gas (CCGT) 3.1 0.2 0.35
Uranium 0 0 0

Current CO2 price in EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is around e50-100/tCO2

20
You calculate: What CO2 price to switch gas and lignite?

What CO2 price, i.e. x e/tCO2 , is required so that the marginal cost of gas (CCGT) is lower
than lignite?
NB: It helps to track units.

21
You calculate: What CO2 price to switch gas and lignite?

What CO2 price, i.e. x e/tCO2 , is required so that the marginal cost of gas (CCGT) is lower
than lignite?
NB: It helps to track units.
We need to solve for the switch point by adding the CO2 price to the fuel cost. Left is lignite,
right is gas:

11 e/MWhel +(0.9 tCO2 /MWhel )·(x e/tCO2 ) = 33 e/MWhel +(0.35 tCO2 /MWhel )·(x e/tCO2 )

Solve:
33 − 11
x= = 40
0.9 − 0.35

21
CO2 and import costs change over time...

22
Source: Agora Energiewende, 2019
...which affects the marginal costs of generation

23
Source: Agora Energiewende, 2019
CO2 emissions from electricity sector

CO2 emissions in electricity generation stagnated for years because of coal, which is slowly
being pushed out by the CO2 price and in the longer term by the Kohleausstieg.

24
Source: Agora Energiewende Jahresauswertung 2022
Hydrogen in REPowerEU by 2030

The European Commission’s REPowerEU plan, published in March 2022, aims for 10 Mt/a of
clean hydrogen to be produced domestically in the European Union by 2030, with another
10 Mt imported.
If electrolysis of water to hydrogen is 70% efficient (LHV) and there is 33 MWh/tH2 (LHV),
what will be the electricity consumption from electrolysis for hydrogen in the EU in 2030?

25
Hydrogen in REPowerEU by 2030

The European Commission’s REPowerEU plan, published in March 2022, aims for 10 Mt/a of
clean hydrogen to be produced domestically in the European Union by 2030, with another
10 Mt imported.
If electrolysis of water to hydrogen is 70% efficient (LHV) and there is 33 MWh/tH2 (LHV),
what will be the electricity consumption from electrolysis for hydrogen in the EU in 2030?
Consumption will be

10 MtH2 /a ∗ 33 MWhH2 /tH2

= 471 TWhel /a
0.7 MWhH2 /MWhel

Compare to the current electricity consumption in Europe of around 3200 TWhel /a.

25
Capacity Factors and Full Load Hours

A generator’s capacity factor is the average power generation divided by the power capacity.
For variable renewable generators it depends on weather, generator model and curtailment; for
dispatchable generators it depends on market conditions and maintenance schedules.
A generator’s full load hours are the equivalent number of hours at full capacity the generator
required to produce its yearly energy yield. The two quantities are related:
full load hours = per unit capacity factor · 365 · 24 = per unit capacity factor · 8760

Typical values for Germany:

Fuel capacity factor [%] full load hours

wind 20-35 1600-3000
solar 10-12 800-1000
nuclear 70-90 6000-8000
open-cycle gas 20 1500 26
Measuring primary energy of renewables

How to value primary energy of carriers which do not have a calorific value, e.g. wind, solar
PV, hydroelectricity?

ˆ Fictive Efficiency Principle: (also known as ‘Physical Energy Accounting Method’ or

‘Direct Equivalent Method’) (most common: used by IEA, OECD, Eurostat, IPCC)
assume there is a 1-to-1 correspondence between primary energy and electricity for wind,
solar, hydro (i.e. 100% conversion efficiency)

ˆ Substitution Principle: (also know as the ‘Input-Equivalent Method’) (used by BP)

assume the conversion efficiency from primary energy to electricity is the same as in a
thermal (fossil or nuclear) powerplant (e.g. 35-45%)

ˆ Efficiency Principle: actual efficiency of respective technology (hydro 80-90%

gravitational potential energy of water to electricity, wind 30-55% kinetic energy of air to
electricity, solar 10-25% radiation to electricity)

27
Fictive Efficiency vs Substitution Principle for Electricity Generation
Fictive Efficiency Principle Substitution Principle
energy energy
fossil fossil

primary final primary final

energy energy
wind wind

primary final primary final

28
Beware: primary energy can underestimate renewables share

Suppose 50% of electricity is provided by wind and solar, the rest by fossil plants with 33%
efficiency.
What is the fraction of renewables in primary energy from renewables:

1. Using the Substitution Principle

2. Using the Fictive Efficiency Principle

29
Beware: primary energy can underestimate renewables share

Suppose 50% of electricity is provided by wind and solar, the rest by fossil plants with 33%
efficiency.
What is the fraction of renewables in primary energy from renewables:

1. Using the Substitution Principle

2. Using the Fictive Efficiency Principle

1. 50% (since we assume renewables need as much primary energy for each unit of electricity
as a thermal plant)
50 50
2. 50+50/0.33 % = 50+150 % = 25%

Bad faith actors will often present renewable shares in terms of primary energy to make it look
small.
29
Primary and final energy change with electrification

Primary energy in grey and green; useful energy in blue. NB: Also in industry, electrification of
process heat can be more efficient since the heat can be focused better than e.g. burning gas.
Electricity Heat Transport
Fossil-fuel condensing power station Gas heating Internal-combustion engine

Losses
Losses
Today

Losses
Fuel Fuel Fuel
Heat

Electricity Propulsion

Wind/solar energy Heat pumps Electric mobility

Losses
Tomorrow

Ambient heat Losses

Renewable
Electricity Heat Renewable
electricity Propulsion
electricity
Renewable
electricity

exceed 50 %.
30
Source: BMWi White Paper 2015
Primary and final energy change with renewables and electrification

Switching from thermal power plants to wind, solar and hydro leads to an automatic decline
in primary energy using the Fictive Efficiency Principle, since thermal losses are no longer
counted.
With electrification and efficiency, final energy also decline (compare gasoline required for a
car versus electricity need; similarly natural gas for boiler versus electricity for a heat pump).
Both primary and final energy will decline! Primary by ∼ 50%, final by ∼ 33%.
Expect roughly double electricity demand (assuming widespread electrification of end
demands, indirect electrification with H2 and efficiency measures).
Electricity will become the dominant final energy, primary energy will become less relevant.
Most important metrics become: fraction of electricity from non-emitting sources; efficiency of
electricity meeting energy services.

31
Energy Balances
Energy Balances

Energy is always conserved as it flows through the energy system.

Energy balances tabulate this energy conservation at each step of conversion from primary
energy supply to primary energy consumption to final energy to energy services for consumers.
At each interface, inputs and outputs balance.

32
Source: Wikimedia
Principles of Energy Flow

33
Source: Zweifel, Praktiknjo & Erdmann (2017)
Energy Flow In Germany

Example: energy flow chart for Germany in 2018 in Petajoule (PJ)

34
Source: AG Energiebilanzen, 2019
Energy Balance Structure (AGEB)

35
Source: AG Energiebilanzen
Simplified Energy Balance for EU28 in 2016

ˆ Gross inland consumption =

Primary energy consumption
= Production + Imports +
Stock changes - Exports -
Bunkers

ˆ Bunkers is e.g. marine fuel

stored at ports

ˆ Around 330 Mtoe lost in

transformation

ˆ Final consumption = Final

non-energy + Final energy
consumption

36
Source: Eurostat Energy Balances
Questions

ˆ What is the average electrical efficiency of conventional power stations in the EU?

ˆ What is the average electrical efficiency of nuclear power stations in the EU?

ˆ What fraction of industry/transport/residential final energy consumption is electricity?

ˆ What is non-energy consumption?

37
Moving Beyond Energy Balances: JRC IDEES Database

Includes more granular estimates of useful energy, efficiency, CO2 emissions, breakdown e.g.
industry by process.
From Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission.
https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/jrc-10110-10001
“The ‘Integrated Database of the European Energy Sector’ (JRC-IDEES) is a one-stop
data-box that incorporates in a single database all information necessary for a deep
understanding of the dynamics of the European energy system, so as to better analyse the past
and to create a robust basis for future policy assessments. JRC-IDEES offers a consistent set of
disaggregated energy-economy-environment data, compliant with the EUROSTAT energy
balances, as well as widely acknowledged data on existing technologies. It provides a plausible
decomposition of energy consumption, allocating it to specific processes and end-uses.”

38
JRC IDEES: Residential energy appliances

ˆ NB: Peak electricity

consumption in Europe is
around 500 GW.

ˆ If all 1760 GW of appliances

came on simultaneously,
system would be
overwhelmed.

ˆ What do you notice about

the ratio of total energy
consumption to installed
power?

39
Source: JRC IDEES
JRC IDEES: Residential heating efficiency

ˆ Ratio of final energy to

actual heating for
space/water/cooking.

ˆ Which fuel source is most

efficient?

ˆ Why is ‘air conditioning’

efficiency greater than one?

ˆ Why is ‘advanced electric

heating’ efficiency greater
than one?

40
Source: JRC IDEES